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Vertical Wind Shear (vertical + wind_shear)
Selected AbstractsThe impact of vertical resolution on regional model simulation of the west African summer monsoonINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2008Leonard M. Druyan Abstract The RM3 regional climate model is used to simulate the west African summer monsoon for six June,September seasons using NCEP reanalysis data for lateral boundary forcing. The study compares the performance of the previously published 16-level version with a newly tested 28-level version, both running on a horizontal grid with 0.5° spacing, in order to determine what improvements in simulations are achieved by increased vertical resolution. Comparisons between the performances include diagnostics of seasonal mean precipitation rates and circulation, vertical profiles of cumulus heating rates, frequencies of shallow and deep convection and diagnostics related to transient African easterly waves (AEWs). The characteristics of a composite AEW simulated at both vertical resolutions are presented. Results show that the most significant impact of increasing the vertical resolution is stronger circulation, stronger vertical wind shear and higher amplitude AEWs. The simulations with higher vertical resolution also achieve higher peaks of cumulus latent heating rates. Spatial,temporal correlations between simulated daily 700 mb meridional winds versus corresponding NCEP reanalysis data and simulated daily precipitation versus estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) archive were equally high at both vertical resolutions. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Implications of tropical cyclone power dissipation indexINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2008Liguang Wu Abstract Upward trends in the power dissipation index (PDI) in the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) basins and increases in the number and proportion of intense hurricanes (categories 4 and 5) in all tropical cyclone basins have been reported in recent studies. These changes have been arguably viewed as evidence of the responses of tropical cyclone intensity to the increasing tropical sea surface temperature (SST) over the past 30 years. Using the historical best-track datasets from 1975 to 2004, how the annual frequency, lifetime and intensity of tropical cyclones contribute to the changes in the annual accumulated PDI is examined. As the SST warmed in the NA, WNP and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins over the past 30 years, the annual accumulated PDI trended upward significantly only in the NA basin, where the decreased vertical wind shear and warming ocean surface may have allowed more storms to form and to form earlier or dissipate later, increasing the lifetime and annual frequency of tropical cyclones. The moderate increase in the annual accumulated PDI in the WNP basin was primarily due to the significant increase in the average intensity. There are no significant trends in the accumulated PDI, average intensity, average lifetime, and annual frequency in the ENP basin. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Predictions of future climate change in the caribbean region using global general circulation modelsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2007Moises E. Angeles Abstract Since the 1800s the global average CO2 mixing ratio has increased and has been related to increases in surface air temperature (0.6 ± 0.2 °C) and variations in precipitation patterns among other weather and climatic variables. The Small Island Developing States (SIDS), according to the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are likely to be among the most seriously impacted regions on Earth by global climate changes. In this work, three climate change scenarios are investigated using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to study the impact of the global anthropogenic CO2 concentration increases on the Caribbean climate. A climatological analysis of the Caribbean seasonal climate variation was conducted employing the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the Xie,Arkin precipitation and the Reynolds,Smith Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observed data. The PCM is first evaluated to determine its ability to predict the present time Caribbean climatology. The PCM tends to under predict the SSTs, which along with the cold advection controls the rainfall variability. This seems to be a main source of bias considering the low model performance to predict rainfall activity over the Central and southern Caribbean. Future predictions indicate that feedback processes involving evolution of SST, cloud formation, and solar radiative interactions affect the rainfall annual variability simulated by PCM from 1996 to 2098. At the same time two large-scale indices, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are strongly related with this rainfall annual variability. A future climatology from 2041 to 2058 is selected to observe the future Caribbean condition simulated by the PCM. It shows, during this climatology range, a future warming of approximately 1 °C (SSTs) along with an increase in the rain production during the Caribbean wet seasons (early and late rainfall seasons). Although the vertical wind shear is strengthened, it typically remains lower than 8 m/s, which along with SST > 26.5 °C provides favorable conditions for possible future increases in tropical storm frequency. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Characteristics, evolution and mechanisms of the summer monsoon onset over Southeast AsiaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2004Zuqiang Zhang Abstract Based on the 1979,95 mean pentad reanalysis data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the climatological characteristics and physical mechanism of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) onset are investigated. Special focus is given to whether the ASM onset starts earlier over the Indochina Peninsula than over the South China Sea (SCS) and why the ASM is established the earliest over Southeast Asia. An examination of the composite thermodynamic and dynamic quantities confirms that the ASM onset commences earliest over the Indochina Peninsula, as highlighted by active convection and rainfall resulting from the convergence of southwesterly flow from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) vortex and easterly winds associated with the subtropical anticyclone over the SCS. Two other important characteristics not previously noted are also identified: the earliest reversal of meridional temperature gradient throughout the entire troposphere and the corresponding establishment of an easterly vertical wind shear, which are due to upper level warming caused by eddy (convective) transport of latent heat. These changes in the large-scale circulation suggest that, in addition to rainfall, a reversal in the planetary-scale circulation should be included in determining the timing of the ASM onset. With such a consideration, the climatological ASM onset occurs first over southeastern BOB and southwestern Indochina Peninsula in early May, and then advances northeastward to reach the SCS by the fourth pentad of May (16,20 May). The monsoon then covers the entire Southeast Asia region by the end of May. Subsequently, a similar onset process begins over the eastern Arabian Sea, India and western BOB, and the complete establishment of the ASM over India is accomplished in mid June. In the process of the onset of each ASM component, the reversal of the upper level planetary-scale circulation depends strongly on that of the meridional temperature gradient. Over the Indochina Peninsula, the seasonal transition of upper level temperature results from convection-induced diabatic heating, whereas over western Asia it is attributed to subsidence warming induced by the active ascending motion over the former region. The steady increase in surface sensible heating over the Indian subcontinent and the latent heating over the tropical Indian Ocean in April to early May appear to be the major impetus for the development of the cyclonic vortex over the BOB. A similar enhancement over the Arabian Peninsula and the surrounding regions is also identified to be crucial to the development of the so-called onset vortex over the Arabian Sea, and then ultimately to the ASM onset over India. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Horizontal potential vorticity dipoles on the convective storm scaleTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 643 2009J. M. Chagnon Abstract The structure and dynamics of potential vorticity (PV) anomalies generated by convective storms is investigated both theoretically and in a numerical model case study. Linear theory suggests that if the storm-induced heating is on a sufficiently small scale (relative to the Rossby radius of deformation), and the environment contains moderate vertical wind shear (of order 1 m s,1 km,1), then the dominant mode of a diabatically generated PV anomaly is a horizontally oriented dipole. The horizontal dipoles are typically of ,,(10 PVU), compared with the ,,(1 PVU) vertical dipoles that have been studied extensively throughout the literature. Furthermore, the horizontal PV dipoles are realized almost entirely as relative vorticity anomalies (on a time-scale of the order of tens of minutes after the heating has been turned on). The analysis of horizontal PV dipoles offers a new perspective on the vorticity dynamics of individual convective cells, implying that moist processes play a role in the maintenance of vertical vorticity in the convective storm environment. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Construction and application of covariance functions with variable length-fieldsTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 619 2006Gregory Gaspari Abstract This article focuses on construction, directly in physical space, of three-dimensional covariance functions parametrized by a length-field, and on an application of these functions to improve the representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4 (GEOS-4) data assimilation system. The covariance functions are obtained by fusing collections of auto-covariance functions having different constant length-scales with their associated cross-covariance functions. This construction yields covariance functions with length-scales that can vary arbitrarily over any finite partition of the spatial domain. A simple, and also motivating application of these functions is to the case where the length-scale varies in the vertical direction only. The class of covariance functions with variable length-fields constructed in this article will be called multi-level to associate them with this application. The multi-level covariance functions extend well-known single-level covariance functions depending only on a constant length-scale. Generalizations of the familiar first-and third-order autoregressive covariances in three dimensions are given, providing multi-level covariances with zero and four continuous derivatives at zero separation, respectively. Multi-level piecewise rational covariances with two continuous derivatives at zero separation are also provided. Multi-level power-law covariances are constructed with continuous derivatives of all orders. Additional multi-level covariance functions are constructed using the Schur product of single- and multi-level covariance functions. A multi-variate, multi-level power-law covariance with a large troposphere-to-stratosphere length-field gradient is employed to reproduce the QBO from sparse radiosonde wind observations in the tropical lower stratosphere. This covariance model is described along with details of the assimilation experiments. The new covariance model is shown to represent the vertical wind shear associated with the QBO much more effectively than the multi-variate, multi-level covariance model in the baseline GEOS-4 system. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Convective mixing in a tropopause foldTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 599 2004H. J. Reid Abstract We present a case study of the passage of a tropopause fold over the UK behind a cold front, with emphasis on the mixing caused by convection extending into the fold. The event took place on 15,16 January 1999, and was the subject of intensive observations using the Met Office C130 aircraft and the mesosphere,stratosphere,troposphere (MST) radar at Aberystwyth. Here we concentrate on radar and satellite observations during the afternoon of 16 January, when the surface cold front had passed over the UK. A tongue of moist air moved north-eastwards over Wales at 700 hPa at this time, which, because of the very dry air in the fold above, resulted in potential instability. The resulting convection was clearly observed in NOAA satellite images. The MST radar depicted the passage of the cold front and tropopause fold as a layer of high-echo power and vertical wind shear ascending with time. Spectral widths showed the fold to be free of turbulence until 1200 UTC on 16 January, when convection was observed reaching into the frontal zone and generating turbulence. Eddy dissipation and diffusivity rates of 8.6 mW kg,1 and 8.5 m2s,1, respectively, were derived for this event. To place these figures in context, they are compared with corresponding rates derived for sixteen other passages of tropopause folds over the radar, each resulting from shear rather than convective instability. The convective event is found to be comparable to the strongest shear events, and to correspond to moderate turbulence as experienced by an aircraft. This process is of potential importance for atmospheric chemistry because it mixes boundary layer air directly with stratospheric air over a timescale of 1,2 hours. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | ||||||||||