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Variance
Kinds of Variance Terms modified by Variance Selected AbstractsTHE PHENOTYPIC VARIANCE WITHIN PLASTIC TRAITS UNDER MIGRATION-MUTATION-SELECTION BALANCEEVOLUTION, Issue 6 2006Xu-Sheng Zhang Abstract How phenotypic variances of quantitative traits are influenced by the heterogeneity in environment is an important problem in evolutionary biology. In this study, both genetic and environmental variances in a plastic trait under migration-mutation-stabilizing selection are investigated. For this, a linear reaction norm is used to approximate the mapping from genotype to phenotype, and a population of clonal inheritance is assumed to live in a habitat consisting of many patches in which environmental conditions vary among patches and generations. The life cycle is assumed to be selection-reproduction-mutation-migration. Analysis shows that phenotypic plasticity is adaptive if correlations between the optimal phenotype and environment have become established in both space and/or time, and it is thus possible to maintain environmental variance (VE) in the plastic trait. Under the special situation of no mutation but maximum migration such that separate patches form an effective single-site habitat, the genotype that maximizes the geometric mean fitness will come to fixation and thus genetic variance (VG) cannot be maintained. With mutation and/or restricted migration, VG can be maintained and it increases with mutation rate but decreases with migration rate; whereas VE is little affected by them. Temporal variation in environmental quality increases VG while its spatial variance decreases VG. Variation in environmental conditions may decrease the environmental variance in the plastic trait. [source] MULTIVARIATE QUANTITATIVE GENETICS AND THE LEK PARADOX: GENETIC VARIANCE IN MALE SEXUALLY SELECTED TRAITS OF DROSOPHILA SERRATA UNDER FIELD CONDITIONSEVOLUTION, Issue 12 2004Emma Hine Abstract Single male sexually selected traits have been found to exhibit substantial genetic variance, even though natural and sexual selection are predicted to deplete genetic variance in these traits. We tested whether genetic variance in multiple male display traits of Drosophila serrata was maintained under field conditions. A breeding design involving 300 field-reared males and their laboratory-reared offspring allowed the estimation of the genetic variance-covariance matrix for six male cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) under field conditions. Despite individual CHCs displaying substantial genetic variance under field conditions, the vast majority of genetic variance in CHCs was not closely associated with the direction of sexual selection measured on field phenotypes. Relative concentrations of three CHCs correlated positively with body size in the field, but not under laboratory conditions, suggesting condition-dependent expression of CHCs under field conditions. Therefore condition dependence may not maintain genetic variance in preferred combinations of male CHCs under field conditions, suggesting that the large mutational target supplied by the evolution of condition dependence may not provide a solution to the lek paradox in this species. Sustained sexual selection may be adequate to deplete genetic variance in the direction of selection, perhaps as a consequence of the low rate of favorable mutations expected in multiple trait systems. [source] THE ADDITIVE GENETIC VARIANCE AFTER BOTTLENECKS IS AFFECTED BY THE NUMBER OF LOCI INVOLVED IN EPISTATIC INTERACTIONSEVOLUTION, Issue 4 2003Yamama Naciri-Graven Abstract We investigated the role of the number of loci coding for a neutral trait on the release of additive variance for this trait after population bottlenecks. Different bottleneck sizes and durations were tested for various matrices of genotypic values, with initial conditions covering the allele frequency space. We used three different types of matrices. First, we extended Cheverud and Routman's model by defining matrices of "pure" epistasis for three and four independent loci; second, we used genotypic values drawn randomly from uniform, normal, and exponential distributions; and third we used two models of simple metabolic pathways leading to physiological epistasis. For all these matrices of genotypic values except the dominant metabolic pathway, we find that, as the number of loci increases from two to three and four, an increase in the release of additive variance is occurring. The amount of additive variance released for a given set of genotypic values is a function of the inbreeding coefficient, independently of the size and duration of the bottleneck. The level of inbreeding necessary to achieve maximum release in additive variance increases with the number of loci. We find that additive-by-additive epistasis is the type of epistasis most easily converted into additive variance. For a wide range of models, our results show that epistasis, rather than dominance, plays a significant role in the increase of additive variance following bottlenecks. [source] PECTIVE: HERE'S TO FISHER, ADDITIVE GENETIC VARIANCE, AND THE FUNDAMENTALTHEOREM OF NATURAL SELECTIONEVOLUTION, Issue 7 2002James F. Crow Abstract Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection, that the rate of change of fitness is given by the additive genetic variance of fitness, has generated much discussion since its appearance in 1930. Fisher tried to capture in the formula the change in population fitness attributable to changes of allele frequencies, when all else is not included. Lessar's formulation comes closest to Fisher's intention, as well as this can be judged. Additional terms can be added to account for other changes. The "theorem" as stated by Fisher is not exact, and therefore not a theorem, but it does encapsulate a great deal of evolutionary meaning in a simple statement. I also discuss the effectiveness of reproductive-value weighting and the theorem in integrated form. Finally, an optimum principle, analogous to least action and Hamilton's principle in physics, is discussed. [source] PERSPECTIVE: GENE DIVERGENCE, POPULATION DIVERGENCE, AND THE VARIANCE IN COALESCENCE TIME IN PHYLOGEOGRAPHIC STUDIESEVOLUTION, Issue 6 2000ScottV. Abstract Molecular methods as applied to the biogeography of single species (phylogeography) or multiple codistributed species (comparative phylogeography) have been productively and extensively used to elucidate common historical features in the diversification of the Earth's biota. However, only recently have methods for estimating population divergence times or their confidence limits while taking into account the critical effects of genetic polymorphism in ancestral species become available, and earlier methods for doing so are underutilized. We review models that address the crucial distinction between the gene divergence, the parameter that is typically recovered in molecular phylogeographic studies, and the population divergence, which is in most cases the parameter of interest and will almost always postdate the gene divergence. Assuming that population sizes of ancestral species are distributed similarly to those of extant species, we show that phylogeographic studies in vertebrates suggest that divergence of alleles in ancestral species can comprise from less than 10% to over 50% of the total divergence between sister species, suggesting that the problem of ancestral polymorphism in dating population divergence can be substantial. The variance in the number of substitutions (among loci for a given species or among species for a given gene) resulting from the stochastic nature of DNA change is generally smaller than the variance due to substitutions along allelic lines whose coalescence times vary due to genetic drift in the ancestral population. Whereas the former variance can be reduced by further DNA sequencing at a single locus, the latter cannot. Contrary to phylogeographic intuition, dating population divergence times when allelic lines have achieved reciprocal monophyly is in some ways more challenging than when allelic lines have not achieved monophyly, because in the former case critical data on ancestral population size provided by residual ancestral polymorphism is lost. In the former case differences in coalescence time between species pairs can in principle be explained entirely by differences in ancestral population size without resorting to explanations involving differences in divergence time. Furthermore, the confidence limits on population divergence times are severely underestimated when those for number of substitutions per site in the DNA sequences examined are used as a proxy. This uncertainty highlights the importance of multilocus data in estimating population divergence times; multilocus data can in principle distinguish differences in coalescence time (T) resulting from differences in population divergence time and differences in T due to differences in ancestral population sizes and will reduce the confidence limits on the estimates. We analyze the contribution of ancestral population size (,) to T and the effect of uncertainty in , on estimates of population divergence (,) for single loci under reciprocal monophyly using a simple Bayesian extension of Takahata and Satta's and Yang's recent coalescent methods. The confidence limits on , decrease when the range over which ancestral population size , is assumed to be distributed decreases and when increases; they generally exclude zero when /(4Ne) > 1. We also apply a maximum-likelihood method to several single and multilocus data sets. With multilocus data, the criterion for excluding = 0 is roughly that l/(4Ne)> 1, where l is the number of loci. Our analyses corroborate recent suggestions that increasing the number of loci is critical to decreasing the uncertainty in estimates of population divergence time. [source] THURSTONIAN MODELS AND VARIANCE II: EXPERIMENTAL CONFIRMATION OF THE EFFECTS OF VARIANCE ON THURSTONIAN MODELS OF SCALINGJOURNAL OF SENSORY STUDIES, Issue 5 2006HEE-JIN KIM ABSTRACT Subjects rated taste intensities using category scales under a variety of experimental protocols, which induced differences in computed values of d,. These were explained in a Thurstonian/signal detection context, by variation in the effects of adaptation changing perceived intensities (perceptual variance), by the effects of forgetting (memory variance) and by differences in the idiosyncratic ways that subjects use category-rating scales (boundary variance). [source] THE COEVOLUTIONARY DYNAMICS OF ANTAGONISTIC INTERACTIONS MEDIATED BY QUANTITATIVE TRAITS WITH EVOLVING VARIANCESEVOLUTION, Issue 10 2005Scott L. Nuismer Abstract Quantitative traits frequently mediate coevolutionary interactions between predator and prey or parasite and host. Previous efforts to understand and predict the coevolutionary dynamics of these interactions have generally assumed that standing genetic variation is fixed or absent altogether. We develop a genetically explicit model of coevolution that bridges the gap between these approaches by allowing genetic variation itself to evolve. Analysis of this model shows that the evolution of genetic variance has improtant consequences for the dyanmics and outcome of coevolution. Of particular importance is our demonstration that coevolutionary cycles can emerge in the absence of stabilizing selection, and outcome not possible in previous models of coevolution mediated by quantitative traits. whether coevolutionary cycles evolve depends upon the strength of selection, the number of loci, and the rate of mutation in each of the interacting species. Our results also generate novel predictions for the expected sign and magnitude of linkage disequilibria in each species. [source] THE EFFECT OF EPISTASIS ON THE EXCESS OF THE ADDITIVE AND NONADDITIVE VARIANCES AFTER POPULATION BOTTLENECKSEVOLUTION, Issue 5 2002Carlos López-Fanjul Abstract The effect of population bottlenecks on the components of the genetic variance generated by two neutral independent epistatic loci has been studied theoretically (VA, additive; VD, dominant; VAA, additive × additive; VAD, additive × dominant; VDD; dominant × dominant components of variance). Nonoverdominance and overdominance models were considered, covering all possible types of marginal gene action at the single locus level. The variance components in an infinitely large panmictic population (ancestral components) were compared with their expected values at equilibrium, after t consecutive bottlenecks of equal size N (derived components). Formulae were obtained in terms of allele frequencies and effects at each locus and the corresponding epistatic value. An excess of VA after bottlenecks can be assigned to two sources: (1) the spatiotemporal changes in the marginal average effects of gene substitution ai, which are equal to zero only for additive gene action within and between loci; and (2) the covariance between a2i and the heterozygosity at the loci involved, which is generated by dominance, with or without epistasis. Numerical examples were analyzed, indicating that an increase in VA after bottlenecks will only occur if its ancestral value is minimal or very small. For the nonoverdominance model with weak reinforcing epistasis, that increase has been detected only for extreme frequencies of the negative allele at one or both loci. With strong epistasis, however, this result can be extended to a broad range of intermediate frequencies. With no epistasis, the same qualitative results were found, indicating that dominance can be considered as the primary cause of an increase in VA following bottlenecks. In parallel, the derived total nonadditive variance exceeded its ancestral value (VNA= VD+ VAA+VAD+ VDD) for a range of combinations of allele frequencies covering those for an excess of VA and for very large frequencies of the negative allele at both loci. For the overdominance model, an increase in VA and VNA was respectively observed for equilibrium (intermediate) frequencies at one or both loci or for extreme frequencies at both loci. For all models, the magnitude of the change of VA and VNA was inversely related to N and t. At low levels of inbreeding, the between-line variance was not affected by the type of gene action. For the models considered, the results indicate that it is unlikely that the rate of evolution may be accelerated after population bottlenecks, in spite of occasional increments of the derived VA over its ancestral value. [source] Construct-Irrelevant Variance in High-Stakes TestingEDUCATIONAL MEASUREMENT: ISSUES AND PRACTICE, Issue 1 2004Thomas M. Haladyna There are many threats to validity in high-stakes achievement testing. One major threat is construct-irrelevant variance (CIV). This article defines CIV in the context of the contemporary, unitary view of validity and presents logical arguments, hypotheses, and documentation for a variety of CIV sources that commonly threaten interpretations of test scores. A more thorough study of CIV is recommended. [source] Female Mate Choice, Calling Song and Genetic Variance in the Cricket, Gryllodes sigillatusETHOLOGY, Issue 3 2008Jocelyn Champagnon Female preferences for song patterns of males of Gryllodes sigillatus and genetic variance of morphological traits correlated with them were analyzed. Females preferred short pulses associated with large males. The males' thorax width, wing length and femur III length showed stronger relationship with the song pulse duration, whereas the relationship between pulse duration and wing width was not significant. Interestingly, this last trait was the only one that showed significant levels of genetic variance. Perhaps these results could be explained by the evolutionary response to sexual selection. Sexual selection could deplete the genetic variance in the male traits related to male-mating success. [source] Multiple Paternity and Similar Variance in Reproductive Success of Male and Female Wood Mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) Housed in an EnclosureETHOLOGY, Issue 10 2001Susan Bartmann The mating system and variance in individual reproductive success in wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) were analysed genetically and using observational studies within a large cage system in an outdoor enclosure. Four experimental groups contained four males and four females, each individually marked with a transponder (small computer chips injected under the skin) allowing individual detection of animals underground or within nest boxes without disturbance. The probability of paternity was analysed by comparing frequencies of cohabitation of males and females. In addition, DNA microsatellite analysis revealed reproductive success of each individual. Multiple paternity was found in 85% of all litters, which were sired by up to all four males. Males with a greater body mass, possibly indicative of a higher rank, sired more offspring than those with lower body mass. Interestingly, variance in the reproductive success of males and females did not differ. There was no indication that paternity could be assessed by the time males resided with a female shortly before she became pregnant. Our results indicate wood mice probably have a promiscuous mating system. [source] On the reliability of a dental OSCE, using SEM: effect of different daysEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF DENTAL EDUCATION, Issue 3 2008M. Schoonheim-Klein Abstract Aim:, The first aim was to study the reliability of a dental objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) administered over multiple days, and the second was to assess the number of test stations required for a sufficiently reliable decision in three score interpretation perspectives of a dental OSCE administered over multiple days. Materials and methods:, In four OSCE administrations, 463 students of the year 2005 and 2006 took the summative OSCE after a dental course in comprehensive dentistry. The OSCE had 16,18 5-min stations (scores 1,10), and was administered per OSCE on four different days of 1 week. ANOVA was used to test for examinee performance variation across days. Generalizability theory was used for reliability analyses. Reliability was studied from three interpretation perspectives: for relative (norm) decisions, for absolute (domain) and pass,fail (mastery) decisions. As an indicator of reproducibility of test scores in this dental OSCE, the standard error of measurement (SEM) was used. The benchmark of SEM was set at <0.51. This is corresponding to a 95% confidence interval (CI) of <1 on the original scoring scale that ranged from 1 to 10. Results:, The mean weighted total OSCE score was 7.14 on a 10-point scale. With the pass,fail score set at 6.2 for the four OSCE, 90% of the 463 students passed. There was no significant increase in scores over the different days the OSCE was administered. ,Wished' variance owing to students was 6.3%. Variance owing to interaction between student and stations and residual error was 66.3%, more than two times larger than variance owing to stations' difficulty (27.4%). The SEM norm was 0.42 with a CI of ±0.83 and the SEM domain was 0.50, with a CI of ±0.98. In order to make reliable relative decisions (SEM <0.51), the use of minimal 12 stations is necessary, and for reliable absolute and pass,fail decisions, the use of minimal 17 stations is necessary in this dental OSCE. Conclusions:, It appeared reliable, when testing large numbers of students, to administer the OSCE on different days. In order to make reliable decisions for this dental OSCE, minimum 17 stations are needed. Clearly, wide sampling of stations is at the heart of obtaining reliable scores in OSCE, also in dental education. [source] Bayesian comparison of spatially regularised general linear modelsHUMAN BRAIN MAPPING, Issue 4 2007Will Penny Abstract In previous work (Penny et al., [2005]: Neuroimage 24:350,362) we have developed a spatially regularised General Linear Model for the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging data that allows for the characterisation of regionally specific effects using Posterior Probability Maps (PPMs). In this paper we show how it also provides an approximation to the model evidence. This is important as it is the basis of Bayesian model comparison and provides a unified framework for Bayesian Analysis of Variance, Cluster of Interest analyses and the principled selection of signal and noise models. We also provide extensions that implement spatial and anatomical regularisation of noise process parameters. Hum Brain Mapp 2007. © 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Radicular peroxide penetration from carbamide peroxide gels during intracoronal bleachingINTERNATIONAL ENDODONTIC JOURNAL, Issue 7 2008O. Gökay Abstract Aim, To evaluate and compare radicular peroxide diffusion from different concentrations of carbamide peroxide bleaching gels. Methodology, Fifty maxillary premolar teeth were separated into five groups (n = 10). Standardized endodontic access cavities were prepared in the occlusal surfaces, and the root canals were prepared using a step back technique and filled using the lateral compaction technique. The gutta-percha filling was removed 4 mm short of the cemento-enamel junction (CEJ) and a 2-mm-thick glass,ionomer cement base was placed. Outer root surfaces were sealed with wax and nail polish, leaving the coronal third of the tooth and the CEJ exposed. All teeth were immersed in a plastic tube containing 2 mL of distilled water, and the experimental groups were treated with a bleaching agent of either 10%, 17% or 37% carbamide peroxide (CP) or a mixture of 30% hydrogen peroxide (HP) and sodium perborate (SP) placed into the coronal pulp chamber of teeth and left for 24 h. Peroxide penetration was measured using the ferrothiocyanate method. Statistical analysis of data was conducted by using the Kruskal,Wallis Analysis of Variance and Mann,Whitney U test. Results, Higher peroxide penetration occurred with the 30% HP-SP mixture than with the CP bleaching gels, and the 37% CP group also promoted greater peroxide penetration than the other CP groups (P < 0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between 10% and 17% CP groups (P > 0.05). Conclusion, Peroxide penetration of CP gels was significantly lower than that of a HP-SP mixture. [source] On parameter estimation of a simple real-time flow aggregation modelINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS, Issue 7 2006Huirong Fu Abstract There exists a clear need for a comprehensive framework for accurately analysing and realistically modelling the key traffic statistics that determine network performance. Recently, a novel traffic model, sinusoid with uniform noise (SUN), has been proposed, which outperforms other models in that it can simultaneously achieve tractability, parsimony, accuracy (in predicting network performance), and efficiency (in real-time capability). In this paper, we design, evaluate and compare several estimation approaches, including variance-based estimation (Var), minimum mean-square-error-based estimation (MMSE), MMSE with the constraint of variance (Var+MMSE), MMSE of autocorrelation function with the constraint of variance (Var+AutoCor+MMSE), and variance of secondary demand-based estimation (Secondary Variance), to determining the key parameters in the SUN model. Integrated with the SUN model, all the proposed methods are able to capture the basic behaviour of the aggregation reservation system and closely approximate the system performance. In addition, we find that: (1) the Var is very simple to operate and provides both upper and lower performance bounds. It can be integrated into other methods to provide very accurate approximation to the aggregation's performance and thus obtain an accurate solution; (2) Var+AutoCor+MMSE is superior to other proposed methods in the accuracy to determine system performance; and (3) Var+MMSE and Var+AutoCor+MMSE differ from the other three methods in that both adopt an experimental analysis method, which helps to improve the prediction accuracy while reducing computation complexity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Impact of interviewing by proxy in travel survey conducted by telephoneJOURNAL OF ADVANCED TRANSPORTATION, Issue 1 2002Daniel A. Badoe Telephone-interview surveys are a very efficient way of conducting large-scale travel surveys. Recent advancements in computer technology have made it possible to improve upon the quality of data collected by telephone surveys through computerization of the entire sample-control process, and through the direct recording of the collected data into a computer. Notwithstanding these technological advancements, potential sources of bias still exist, including the reliance on an adult member of the household to report the travel information of other household members. Travel data collected in a recent telephone interview survey in the Toronto region is used to examine this issue. The statistical tool used in the research was the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) technique as implemented within the general linear model framework in SAS. The study-results indicate that reliance on informants to provide travel information for non-informant members of their respective households led to the underreporting of some categories of trips. These underreported trip categories were primarily segments of home-based discretionary trips, and non home-based trips. Since these latter two categories of trips are made primarily outside the morning peak period, estimated factors to adjust for their underreporting were time-period sensitive. Further, the number of vehicles available to the household, gender, and driver license status respectively were also found to be strongly associated with the underreporting of trips and thus were important considerations in the determination of adjustment factors. Work and school trips were found not to be underreported, a not surprising result giving the almost daily repetitiveness of trips made for these purposes and hence the ability of the informant to provide relatively more precise information on them. [source] Bayesian inference strategies for the prediction of genetic merit using threshold models with an application to calving ease scores in Italian Piemontese cattleJOURNAL OF ANIMAL BREEDING AND GENETICS, Issue 4 2002K. Kizilkaya Summary First parity calving difficulty scores from Italian Piemontese cattle were analysed using a threshold mixed effects model. The model included the fixed effects of age of dam and sex of calf and their interaction and the random effects of sire, maternal grandsire, and herd-year-season. Covariances between sire and maternal grandsire effects were modelled using a numerator relationship matrix based on male ancestors. Field data consisted of 23 953 records collected between 1989 and 1998 from 4741 herd-year-seasons. Variance and covariance components were estimated using two alternative approximate marginal maximum likelihood (MML) methods, one based on expectation-maximization (EM) and the other based on Laplacian integration. Inferences were compared to those based on three separate runs or sequences of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling in order to assess the validity of approximate MML estimates derived from data with similar size and design structure. Point estimates of direct heritability were 0.24, 0.25 and 0.26 for EM, Laplacian and MCMC (posterior mean), respectively, whereas corresponding maternal heritability estimates were 0.10, 0.11 and 0.12, respectively. The covariance between additive direct and maternal effects was found to be not different from zero based on MCMC-derived confidence sets. The conventional joint modal estimates of sire effects and associated standard errors based on MML estimates of variance and covariance components differed little from the respective posterior means and standard deviations derived from MCMC. Therefore, there may be little need to pursue computation-intensive MCMC methods for inference on genetic parameters and genetic merits using conventional threshold sire and maternal grandsire models for large datasets on calving ease. Zusammenfassung Die Kalbeschwierigkeiten bei italienischen Piemonteser Erstkalbskühen wurden mittels eines gemischten Threshold Modells untersucht. Im Modell wurden die fixen Einflüsse vom Alter der Kuh und dem Geschlecht des Kalbes, der Interaktion zwischen beiden und die zufälligen Effekte des Großvaters der Mutter und der Herden-Jahr-Saisonklasse berücksichtigt. Die Kovarianz zwischen dem Vater der Kuh und dem Großvater der Mutter wurde über die nur auf väterlicher Verwandtschaft basierenden Verwandtschaftsmatrix berücksichtigt. Es wurden insgesamt 23953 Datensätze aus den Jahren 1989 bis 1998 von 4741 Herden-Jahr-Saisonklassen ausgewertet. Die Varianz- und Kovarianzkomponenten wurden mittels zweier verschiedener approximativer marginal Maximum Likelihood (MML) Methoden geschätzt, die erste basierend auf Expectation-Maximierung (EM) und die zweite auf Laplacian Integration. Rückschlüsse wurden verglichen mit solchen, basierend auf drei einzelne Läufe oder Sequenzen von Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Stichproben, um die Gültigkeit der approximativen MML Schätzer aus Daten mit ähnlicher Größe und Struktur zu prüfen. Die Punktschätzer der direkten Heritabilität lagen bei 0,24; 0,25 und 0,26 für EM, Laplacian und MCMC (Posterior Mean), während die entsprechenden maternalen Heritabilitäten bei 0,10, 0,11 und 0,12 lagen. Die Kovarianz zwischen dem direkten additiven und dem maternalen Effekt wurden als nicht von Null verschieden geschätzt, basierend auf MCMC abgeleiteten Konfidenzintervallen. Die konventionellen Schätzer der Vatereffekte und deren Standardfehler aus den MML-Schätzungen der Varianz- und Kovarianzkomponenten differieren leicht von denen aus der MCMC Analyse. Daraus folgend besteht wenig Bedarf die rechenintensiven MCMC-Methoden anzuwenden, um genetische Parameter und den genetischen Erfolg zu schätzen, wenn konventionelle Threshold Modelle für große Datensätze mit Vätern und mütterlichen Großvätern mit Kalbeschwierigkeiten genutzt werden. [source] Climate predictability and breeding phenology in red deer: timing and synchrony of rutting and calving in Norway and FranceJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2005L. E. LOE Summary 1Timing and synchrony of reproduction are regarded as crucially important factors for fitness in seasonal environments. Natural selection has probably favoured temperate and arctic female herbivores that match reproduction with onset of plant growth in spring. However, breeding synchrony may also be affected by variation in phenotypic quality of females in a population, because females in poor body condition have been found to delay ovulation and subsequent calving. 2We compared breeding phenology, i.e. the timing and synchrony of rutting (roaring, sexual aggregation) and calving of red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) in France (latitude: 49°N) and Norway (latitude: 63°N). We hypothesized (H1) that calving and rutting were later at the site with latest onset of plant growth. 3We further quantified overall environmental predictability as the sum of annual constancy and seasonality and tested three different (not mutually exclusive) hypotheses about breeding synchrony: (H2a) the population experiencing most seasonal plant phenology should show the highest breeding synchrony; (H2b) overall predictability of plant phenology should determine breeding synchrony; and (H2c) breeding should be more synchronized in the population with lowest female body weight variation within age classes because they ovulate more synchronously. 4Calving and rutting, as well as onset of plant phenology, were later in Norway than in France, complying with the first hypothesis. Plant growth in spring was overall more predictable and also more seasonal in Norway than France. Hence we expected higher breeding synchrony in Norway than in France according to H2a and H2b. Variance in female body weight was slightly higher in France than in Norway, which should also cause more synchronized breeding in Norway than in France (H2c). Contrary to all predictions, variance in rutting and calving dates was around two times higher in Norway than in France. 5We suggest two alternative explanations of breeding synchrony. A more variable topography in Norway can make optimal birth date more variable on a local scale than in France, thereby maintaining a higher genetic variance for calving date in Norwegian red deer. Further, population age structure may play a role, as ovulation varies according to female age. Clearly, processes of breeding synchrony are far more complex than previously realized. [source] The Moderating Effect of Religiosity on the Genetic Variance of Problem Alcohol UseALCOHOLISM, Issue 9 2010Tanya M. M. Button Background:, Previous studies have demonstrated that the heritability of alcohol-related phenotypes depends upon the social background in which it is measured (e.g., urbanicity, marital status, and religiosity). The aim of the current study was to identify whether religiosity moderated the genetic variance of problem alcohol use in men and women at two time points: adolescence and early adulthood. Method:, Participants were 312 male MZ pairs, 379 female MZ pairs, 231 male DZ pairs, 235 female DZ pairs, and 275 opposite sex DZ pairs participating in the University of Colorado Center on Antisocial Drug Dependence. Religiosity was measured using the Value on Religion Scale (Jessor and Jessor, 1977), and problem alcohol use was measured using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview,Substance Abuse Module (Cottler et al., 1989). Data were analyzed using a model-fitting approach to the twin data. Results:, In adolescence, genetic variance of problem alcohol use decreased significantly with increasing levels of religiosity in both men and women, whereas in early adulthood, religiosity did not moderate the genetic variance of problem alcohol use in either men or women. Conclusion:, Religiosity appears to moderate the genetic effects on problem alcohol use during adolescence, but not during early adulthood. The reduced genetic variance for problem alcohol use in adolescence may be the consequence of greater social control in adolescence than in young adulthood. [source] Nurse staffing, bed numbers and the cost of acute psychiatric inpatient care in EnglandJOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRIC & MENTAL HEALTH NURSING, Issue 8 2008L. BOWERS rmn phd The aim of this analysis was to describe the composition, variability and factors associated with nurse staffing costs in acute psychiatric inpatient care. Numbers of acute inpatient beds in England have fallen, creating an occupancy crisis. Numbers of acute inpatient nursing staff are linked to quality of care. Variance in staffing and beds has considerable resource implications, but little is known about how these costs are structured. The sample comprised survey data from 136 wards in 26 NHS Trusts, matched with nationally available data on service levels, population and outcomes. The cost of providing acute inpatient care varied fivefold between different Trusts. This variation comprised of numbers of beds/population, numbers of nurses/beds and the proportion of nurses qualified. These variations were not fully accounted for by differing levels of social deprivation. Although service provision levels in London were higher, wide variation in costs existed in every region. Associations between nursing cost per bed and performance indicators were found. As investment in acute inpatient care varies widely, we need to know much more about the relationship of inputs to outputs, so that empirically based standard service levels can be defined. [source] Differences in the Correlates of Physical Activity Between Urban and Rural Canadian YouthJOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH, Issue 4 2007Constantinos A. Loucaides PhD ABSTRACT Background:, Despite the benefits of physical activity (PA), a significant proportion of youth remains inactive. Studies assessing differences in the correlates of PA among urban and rural youth are scarce, and such investigations can help identify subgroups of the population that may need to be targeted for special intervention programs. The purpose of this study was to assess differences in the correlates of PA between Canadian urban and rural youth. Methods:, The sample consisted of 1398 adolescents from 4 urban schools and 1290 adolescents from 4 rural schools. Mean age of the participants was 15.6 ± 1.3 years. Hierarchical regression analyses were used to examine the association between self-reported PA and a number of demographic, psychological, behavioral, and social correlates. Results:, Common correlates between the 2 locations included gender (with girls being less active than boys) perceptions of athletic/physical ability, self-efficacy, interest in organized group activities, use of recreation time, and friends' and siblings' frequency of participation in PA. Active commuting to school and taking a physical education class were unique correlates of PA at the multivariate level in urban and rural students, respectively. Variance explained in PA ranged from 43% for urban school students to 38% for rural school students. Conclusions:, Although more similarities than discrepancies were found in the correlates of PA between the 2 geographical locations, findings from this study strengthen the policies that argue for a coordinated multisector approach to the promotion of PA in youth, which include the family, school, and community. [source] Visual P3 in Female AlcoholicsALCOHOLISM, Issue 4 2001V. Radha Prabhu Background: The P300 (P3) component of the event related potential has been established as a sensitive risk marker of vulnerability to alcoholism. Most alcoholism studies have focused on men; recent studies indicate that women are equally vulnerable to developing alcoholism. Methods: Visual P3 recorded from 31 electrode positions was evaluated in 44 alcoholic and 60 control women, 24,50 years of age. P3 amplitudes and latencies of the two groups were statistically compared using Analysis of Variance; source localization of surface amplitude values from each group were plotted using a low-resolution brain electromagnetic tomography. Results: The results indicated that alcoholic women had significantly smaller P3 amplitudes in the frontal and central regions compared with controls. Source localization showed lowered activation in alcoholic women in right dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex and the ventro-medial fronto-central regions. Conclusions: The results suggest that P3 is an equally sensitive endophenotypic marker of vulnerability to alcoholism in women. The findings are discussed in terms of functional and physiologic significance of the P3 amplitude in alcoholic women and its relationship to drinking behaviors. [source] Prediction Variance and Information Worth of Observations in Time SeriesJOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, Issue 4 2000Mohsen Pourahmadi The problem of developing measures of worth of observations in time series has not received much attention in the literature. Any meaningful measure of worth should naturally depend on the position of the observation as well as the objectives of the analysis, namely parameter estimation or prediction of future values. We introduce a measure that quantifies worth of a set of observations for the purpose of prediction of outcomes of stationary processes. The worth is measured as the change in the information content of the entire past due to exclusion or inclusion of a set of observations. The information content is quantified by the mutual information, which is the information theoretic measure of dependency. For Gaussian processes, the measure of worth turns out to be the relative change in the prediction error variance due to exclusion or inclusion of a set of observations. We provide formulae for computing predictive worth of a set of observations for Gaussian autoregressive moving-average processs. For non-Gaussian processes, however, a simple function of its entropy provides a lower bound for the variance of prediction error in the same manner that Fisher information provides a lower bound for the variance of an unbiased estimator via the Cramer-Rao inequality. Statistical estimation of this lower bound requires estimation of the entropy of a stationary time series. [source] Modelling Long-memory Time Series with Finite or Infinite Variance: a General ApproachJOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, Issue 1 2000Remigijus Leipus We present a class of generalized fractional filters which is stable with respect to series and parallel connection. This class extends the so-called fractional ARUMA and fractional ARMA filters previously introduced by e.g. Goncalves (1987) and Robinson (1994) and recently studied by Giraitis and Leipus (1995) and Viano et al. (1995). Conditions for the existence of the induced stationary S,S and L2 processes are given. We describe the asymptotic dependence structure of these processes via the codifference and the covariance sequences respectively. In the L2 case, we prove the weak convergence of the normalized partial sums. [source] Enrofloxacin and marbofloxacin in horses: comparison of pharmacokinetic parameters, use of urinary and metabolite data to estimate first-pass effect and absorbed fractionJOURNAL OF VETERINARY PHARMACOLOGY & THERAPEUTICS, Issue 5 2006M. PEYROU Enrofloxacin and marbofloxacin are two veterinary fluoroquinolones used to treat severe bacterial infections in horses. A repeated measures study has been designed to compare their pharmacokinetic parameters, to investigate their bioavailability and to estimate their absorbed fraction and first-pass effect by using plasma, urinary and metabolite data collected from five healthy mares. Clearance and Vd(ss) were greater for enrofloxacin (mean ± SD = 6.34 ± 1.5 mL/min/kg and 2.32 ± 0.32 L/kg, respectively) than for marbofloxacin (4.62 ± 0.67 mL/min/kg and 1.6 ± 0.25 L/kg, respectively). Variance of the AUC0-inf of marbofloxacin was lower than that for enrofloxacin, with, respectively, a CV = 15% and 26% intravenously and a CV = 31% and 55% after oral administration. Mean oral bioavailability was not significantly different between marbofloxacin (59%) and enrofloxacin (55%). The mean percentage of the dose eliminated unchanged in urine was significantly higher for marbofloxacin (39.7%) than that for enrofloxacin (3.4%). Absorbed fraction and first-pass effect were only determinable for enrofloxacin, whereas the percentage of the dose absorbed in the portal circulation was estimated to be 78% and the fraction not extracted during the first pass through the liver was 65%. Consequently, the moderate observed bioavailability of enrofloxacin appears to be mainly caused by hepatic first-pass effect. [source] A MODEL LIFE TABLE FOR BOTTLENOSE DOLPHINS (TURSIOPS TRUNCATUS) FROM THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON SYSTEM, FLORIDA, U.S.A.MARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, Issue 4 2003Megan K. Stolen Abstract Data gathered from 220 stranded bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Indian River Lagoon system, Florida, were used to derive a life table. Survivorship curves were fit to the data using Siler's competing-risk model and a maximum likelihood approach. Population growth was estimated to be between r= 0.0 and 0.046 based on the observed numbers of stranded dolphins. Variance in survival rates was estimated using an individual-based, age-structured population projection model. We estimate that the overall annual mortality rate for this population was 9.8% per year. Sex-specific differences in survivorship were apparent with females outliving males. The overall mortality curve resembles that of other large mammals, with high calf mortality and an exponentially increasing risk of senescent mortality. The inclusion of live-capture removals of individuals from this population did not significantly affect the estimation of survival parameters for most age classes. [source] Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Heavy-Tailed Risk FactorsMATHEMATICAL FINANCE, Issue 3 2002Paul Glasserman This paper develops efficient methods for computing portfolio value-at-risk (VAR) when the underlying risk factors have a heavy-tailed distribution. In modeling heavy tails, we focus on multivariate t distributions and some extensions thereof. We develop two methods for VAR calculation that exploit a quadratic approximation to the portfolio loss, such as the delta-gamma approximation. In the first method, we derive the characteristic function of the quadratic approximation and then use numerical transform inversion to approximate the portfolio loss distribution. Because the quadratic approximation may not always yield accurate VAR estimates, we also develop a low variance Monte Carlo method. This method uses the quadratic approximation to guide the selection of an effective importance sampling distribution that samples risk factors so that large losses occur more often. Variance is further reduced by combining the importance sampling with stratified sampling. Numerical results on a variety of test portfolios indicate that large variance reductions are typically obtained. Both methods developed in this paper overcome difficulties associated with VAR calculation with heavy-tailed risk factors. The Monte Carlo method also extends to the problem of estimating the conditional excess, sometimes known as the conditional VAR. [source] Pollen dispersal and genetic structure of the tropical tree Dipteryx panamensis in a fragmented Costa Rican landscapeMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 8 2008THOR R. HANSON Abstract In the face of widespread deforestation, the conservation of rainforest trees relies increasingly on their ability to maintain reproductive processes in fragmented landscapes. Here, we analysed nine microsatellite loci for 218 adults and 325 progeny of the tree Dipteryx panamensis in Costa Rica. Pollen dispersal distances, genetic diversity, genetic structure and spatial autocorrelation were determined for populations in four habitats: continuous forest, forest fragments, pastures adjacent to fragments and isolated pastures. We predicted longer but less frequent pollen movements among increasingly isolated trees. This pattern would lead to lower outcrossing rates for pasture trees, as well as lower genetic diversity and increased structure and spatial autocorrelation among their progeny. Results generally followed these expectations, with the shortest pollen dispersal among continuous forest trees (240 m), moderate distances for fragment (343 m) and adjacent pasture (317 m) populations, and distances of up to 2.3 km in isolated pastures (mean: 557 m). Variance around pollen dispersal estimates also increased with fragmentation, suggesting altered pollination conditions. Outcrossing rates were lower for pasture trees and we found greater spatial autocorrelation and genetic structure among their progeny, as well as a trend towards lower heterozygosity. Paternal reproductive dominance, the pollen contributions from individual fathers, did not vary among habitats, but we did document asymmetric pollen flow between pasture and adjacent fragment populations. We conclude that long-distance pollen dispersal helps maintain gene flow for D. panamensis in this fragmented landscape, but pasture and isolated pasture populations are still at risk of long-term genetic erosion. [source] Neuromuscular electrical stimulation and the treatment of lower urinary tract dysfunction in multiple sclerosis, A double blind, placebo controlled, randomised clinical trial,,NEUROUROLOGY AND URODYNAMICS, Issue 3 2008D. McClurg Abstract Aims Lower urinary tract dysfunction affects up to 75% of the multiple sclerosis population. Results from our recent Pilot Study (McClurg et al., 2006) indicated that a combined programme of pelvic floor muscle training, electromyography biofeedback and neuromuscular electrical stimulation modalities may alleviate some of the distressing symptoms within this population. This clinical trial aimed to evaluate further the efficacy of these interventions and to establish the benefit of neuromuscular electrical stimulation above and beyond that of EMG biofeedback and pelvic floor muscle training. Methods 74 multiple sclerosis patients who presented with lower urinary tract dysfunction were randomly allocated to one of two groups - Group 1 received Pelvic Floor Muscle Training, Electromyography Biofeedback and Placebo Neuromuscular Electrical Stimulation (n=37), and Group 2 which received Pelvic Floor Muscle Training, Electromyography Biofeedback, and Active Neuromuscular Electrical Stimulation (n=37). Treatment was for nine weeks with outcome measures recorded at weeks 0, 9, 16 and 24. The Primary Outcome Measure was the number of leakage episodes. Within group analysis was by Paired Samples t-test. Group differences were analysed using Repeated Measures Analysis of Variance and Post-hoc tests were used to determine the significance of differences between Groups at each time point. Results The mean number of incontinence episodes were reduced in Group 2 by 85% (p=0.001) whereas in Group 1 a lesser reduction of 47% (p=0.001) was observed. However, there was a statistically superior benefit in Group 2 when compared to Group 1 (p=0.0028). This superior benefit was evident in all other outcome measures. Conclusions The addition of Active Neuromuscular Electrical Stimulation to a programme of Pelvic Floor Muscle Training and Electromyography Biofeedback should be considered as a first-line option in alleviating some of the symptoms of lower urinary tract dysfunction associated with multiple sclerosis. Neurourol. Urodynam. 27:231,237, 2008. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Quantifier Variance and RealismNOUS, Issue 2002Eli Hirsch First page of article [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||