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Upward Trend (upward + trend)
Kinds of Upward Trend Selected AbstractsImplications of tropical cyclone power dissipation indexINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2008Liguang Wu Abstract Upward trends in the power dissipation index (PDI) in the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) basins and increases in the number and proportion of intense hurricanes (categories 4 and 5) in all tropical cyclone basins have been reported in recent studies. These changes have been arguably viewed as evidence of the responses of tropical cyclone intensity to the increasing tropical sea surface temperature (SST) over the past 30 years. Using the historical best-track datasets from 1975 to 2004, how the annual frequency, lifetime and intensity of tropical cyclones contribute to the changes in the annual accumulated PDI is examined. As the SST warmed in the NA, WNP and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins over the past 30 years, the annual accumulated PDI trended upward significantly only in the NA basin, where the decreased vertical wind shear and warming ocean surface may have allowed more storms to form and to form earlier or dissipate later, increasing the lifetime and annual frequency of tropical cyclones. The moderate increase in the annual accumulated PDI in the WNP basin was primarily due to the significant increase in the average intensity. There are no significant trends in the accumulated PDI, average intensity, average lifetime, and annual frequency in the ENP basin. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] An evaluation of a heroin overdose prevention and education campaignDRUG AND ALCOHOL REVIEW, Issue 1 2010DANIELLE HORYNIAK Abstract Introduction and Aims. Following detection of an upward trend in the frequency of fatal heroin overdoses in Victoria between 2001 and 2003, Victoria's Department of Human Services planned a campaign aimed at increasing injecting drug users' (IDU) awareness of overdose risks and prevention strategies. Stickers, wallet cards and posters featuring five key messages were distributed via needle and syringe programs (NSP) and other drug and alcohol services between November 2005 and April 2006. An evaluation of the campaign was commissioned to be conducted in late 2006. Design and Methods. The evaluation consisted of analysis of three independent data sets,,quantitative data collected from IDU during the campaign period (n = 855 at baseline; and a range of 146,656 at follow up); qualitative interviews with IDU who were NSP clients during the campaign period (n = 16) and qualitative interviews with NSP staff and other key stakeholders (n = 9). Results. While key experts felt that the campaign messages had engendered lasting impact for at least some IDU, these positive impressions were not borne out by the NSP client data, with less than one quarter of all campaign messages being mentioned by a significantly higher proportion of clients during the post-campaign period compared with baseline. Key experts perceived the greatest weakness of the campaign to be the delay between issue identification and the introduction of campaign materials. Discussion and Conclusions. While IDU are generally responsive to health promotion campaigns, future initiatives in this domain should be designed and implemented rapidly and in ways that are sufficiently flexible to cope with shifts in drug markets which could influence the reception of key messages.[Horyniak D, Higgs P, Lewis J, Winter R, Dietze P, Aitken C. An evaluation of a heroin overdose prevention and education campaign. Drug Alcohol Rev 2009] [source] English rural societies and geographical marital endogamy, 1700,1837ECONOMIC HISTORY REVIEW, Issue 2 2002K. D. M. Snell This article studies 69 rural parishes in eight English counties, examining changes in geographical marital endogamy. It discovers a consistent upward trend in the proportions of marriages that were parochially endogamous, coupled with a decline in so ,called ,foreign' marriages following Hardwickes's Act (1753), and a striking shift towards marriages taking place in the brides' parishes. It explores regional variability in parochial endogamy and stresses the role of settlement sizes. The explanation for rising endogamy highlights factors such as population growth, rising poor relief expenditures, and attitudes resistant to ,outsiders' during a period of precarious subsistence and associated tensions. [source] Unemployment, growth and taxation in industrial countriesECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 30 2000Francesco Daveri To the layman, the upward trend in European unemployment is related to the slowdown of economic growth. We argue that the layman's view is correct. The increase in European unemployment and the slowdown in economic growth are related, because they stem from a common cause: an excessively rapid growth in the cost of labour. In Europe, labour costs have gone up for many reasons, but one is particularly easy to identify: higher taxes on labour. If wages are set by strong and decentralized trade unions, an increase in labour taxes is shifted onto higher real wages. This has two effects. First, it reduces labour demand, and thus creates unemployment. Secondly, as firms substitute capital for labour, the marginal product of capital falls; over long periods of time, this in turn diminishes the incentive to invest and to grow. The data strongly support this view. According to our estimates, the observed rise of 14 percentage points in labour tax rates between 1965 and 1995 in the EU could account for a rise in EU unemployment of roughly 4 percentage points, a reduction of the investment share of output of about 3 percentage points, and a growth slowdown of about 0.4 percentage points a year. [source] An analysis of cocaine powder in the Netherlands: content and health hazards due to adulterantsADDICTION, Issue 5 2009Tibor M. Brunt ABSTRACT Aims To report on trends in the content and adulterants present in street cocaine (powder) in the Netherlands and to describe the associated health hazards. Design and participants Drug consumers handed in samples of cocaine powder from 1999 to 2007 for analysis. Reports were compiled of users' experiences with the samples received. Measurements and analysis Linear regression analysis was used to assess the trend in adulterated cocaine powder across the study period, and comparison of reported adverse effects of adulterated with those of unadulterated cocaine by Fisher's exact test. Findings There has been a statistically significant upward trend in the occurrence of adulterated cocaine powder over the years. Adulterated cocaine was associated more frequently with reported adverse effects than unadulterated cocaine. Phenacetin, hydroxyzine and diltiazem appeared to be three adulterants contributing to these adverse effects. Conclusions An increase in adulterants was detected in the analysed cocaine powder between 1999 and 2007. This increase is associated with relatively more adverse effects with cocaine use. The cardiac and hallucinatory effects that were reported more frequently are not understood clearly. Adverse effects are likely to be due to several factors, including interactions of adulterants with cocaine and the route of administration. [source] Interannual to decadal changes in area burned in Canada from 1781 to 1982 and the relationship to Northern Hemisphere land temperaturesGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2007Martin P. Girardin ABSTRACT Aim, Temporal variability of annual area burned in Canada (AAB-Can) from ad 1781 to 1982 is inferred from tree-ring width data. Next, correlation analysis is applied between the AAB-Can estimates and Northern Hemisphere (NH) warm season land temperatures to link recent interannual to decadal changes in area burned with large-scale climate variations. The rationale in this use of tree rings is that annual radial increments produced by trees can approximate area burned through sensing climate variations that promote fire activity. Location, The statistical reconstruction of area burned is at the scale of Canada. Methods, The data base of total area burned per year in Canada is used as the predictand. A set of 53 multicentury tree-ring width chronologies distributed across Canada is used as predictors. A linear model relating the predictand to the tree-ring predictors is fitted over the period 1920,82. The regression coefficients estimated for the calibration period are applied to the tree-ring predictors for as far back as 1781 to produce a series of AAB-Can estimates. Results, The AAB-Can estimates account for 44.1% of the variance in the observed data recorded from 1920 to 1982 (92.2% after decadal smoothing) and were verified using a split sample calibration-verification scheme. The statistical reconstruction indicates that the positive trend in AAB-Can from c. 1970,82 was preceded by three decades during which area burned was at its lowest during the past 180 years. Correlation analysis with NH warm season land temperatures from the late 18th century to the present revealed a positive statistical association with these estimates. Main conclusions, As with previous studies, it is demonstrated that the upward trend in AAB-Can is unlikely to be an artefact from changing fire reporting practices and may have been driven by large-scale climate variations. [source] An empirical analysis of US and Japanese health insurance using age,period,cohort decompositionHEALTH ECONOMICS, Issue 5 2007Kosei Fukuda Abstract Aggregate data on household health insurance expenditure in the US and Japan that are classified by period and age are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects by using the Bayesian cohort models. These models are developed to overcome the identification problem involved in cohort analysis. Despite the differences between the health insurance systems of the two countries, three interesting empirical findings are obtained. First, in both the countries, the age effects are the most influential, and the cohort effects have negligible influence. The latter provides a striking policy implication since the generational imbalance in social security expenditures is widely recognized in developed countries. Second, in both the countries, the period effects show a roughly upward trend. Finally, the age effects exhibit a roughly upward movement for all age groups in the US; however, in Japan, these effects show a downward movement for the 55,59 age group due to the changes in the health insurance system on retirement. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Trends in oesophageal cancer incidence and mortality in EuropeINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CANCER, Issue 5 2008Cristina Bosetti Abstract To monitor recent trends in mortality from oesophageal cancer in 33 European countries, we analyzed the data provided by the World Health Organization over the last 2 decades, using also joinpoint regression. For selected European cancer registration areas, we also analyzed incidence rates for different histological types. For men in the European Union (EU), age-standardized (world population) mortality rates were stable around 6/100,000 between the early 1980s and the early 1990s, and slightly declined in the last decade (5.4/100,000 in the early 2000s, annual percent change, APC = ,1.1%). In several western European countries, male rates have started to level off or decline during the last decade (APC = ,3.4% in France, and ,3.0% in Italy). Also in Spain and the UK, which showed upward trends in the 1990s, the rates tended to level off in most recent years. A levelling of rates was observed only more recently in countries of central and eastern Europe, which had had substantial rises up to the late 1990s. Oesophageal cancer mortality rates remained comparatively low in European women, and overall EU female rates were stable around 1.1,1.2/100,000 over the last 2 decades (APC = ,0.1%). In northern Europe a clear upward trend was observed in the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma, and in Denmark and Scotland incidence of adenocarcinoma in men is now higher than that of squamous-cell carcinoma. Squamous-cell carcinoma remained the prevalent histological type in southern Europe. Changes in smoking habits and alcohol drinking for men, and perhaps nutrition, diet and physical activity for both sexes, can partly or largely explain these trends. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Trend and variability of China precipitation in spring and summer: linkage to sea-surface temperaturesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2004Fanglin Yang Abstract Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and interdecadal time scales. Results based on singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centres of action for each season, which are covarying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centred in southeastern China and northern China respectively, are linked to an El Niño,southern oscillation (ENSO)-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and the Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850 hPa winds and 700 hPa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer time scale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean, the interdecadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, i.e. the North Pacific mode. The latter is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and interdecadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend of springtime precipitation over southeastern China and downward trend of summertime precipitation over northern China are attributable to the warming trend of the ENSO-like mode. The recent frequent summertime floods over central eastern China are linked to the warming trend of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Carbonated Soft Drink Consumption and Bone Mineral Density in Adolescence: The Northern Ireland Young Hearts Project,JOURNAL OF BONE AND MINERAL RESEARCH, Issue 9 2003C McGartland Abstract In an observational study of 1335 boys and girls aged 12 and 15 years, higher intakes of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) were significantly associated with lower bone mineral density at the heel, but only in girls. Owing to the upward trend in CSD intake in adolescence, this finding may be of concern. Introduction: High consumption of carbonated soft drinks (CSD) during adolescence may reduce bone mineral accrual and increase fracture risk. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between CSD consumption and bone mineral density (BMD) in a representative sample of adolescents. Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional observational study in 36 postprimary schools in Northern Ireland. Participants included 591 boys and 744 girls either 12 or 15 years old. BMD was measured by DXA, and usual beverage consumption was assessed by the diet history method. Adjusted regression modeling was used to investigate the influence of CSD on BMD. Results: A significant inverse relationship between total CSD intake and BMD was observed in girls at the dominant heel (,, ,0.099; 95% CI, ,0.173 to ,0.025). Non-cola consumption was inversely associated with dominant heel BMD in girls (,, ,0.121; 95% CI, ,0.194 to ,0.048), and diet drinks were also inversely associated with heel BMD in girls (,, ,0.087; 95% CI, ,0.158 to ,0.016). However, no consistent relationships were observed between CSD intake and BMD in boys. Cola consumption and nondiet drinks were not significantly related to BMD in either sex. Conclusion: CSD consumption seems to be inversely related to BMD at the dominant heel in girls. It is possible that the apparent association results from the displacement of more nutritious beverages from the diet. Although the inverse association observed between CSD consumption and BMD is modest and confined to girls, this finding may have important public health implications given the widespread use and current upward trend in CSD consumption in Western populations. [source] Dietary content may prevent secondary hyperparathyroidism in female rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta)JOURNAL OF MEDICAL PRIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2000Julia E. Bruner Macaque laboratory chows provide relatively more calcium (Ca) and vitamin D (D) than human diets; this may influence skeletal aging. To evaluate this possibility, parameters of skeletal relevance in premenopausal and naturally postmenopausal rhesus monkeys were measured in a cross-sectional study. Serum osteocalcin (Oc) was elevated in the postmenopausal group (P<0.01), but levels of parathyroid hormone (PTH) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) were not different. Subsequently, in premenopausal animals, dietary Ca and/or D intake was reduced to optimal human levels for 8 weeks prior to the evaluation of the skeletal parameters. Serum 25OHD concentration was reduced (P<0.01) and a trend (P=0.10) towards increased PTH was observed in both low D groups. In addition, serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels were increased in the low Ca group (P<0.01). In conclusion, skeletal turnover, as measured by serum Oc, was increased in naturally postmenopausal rhesus monkeys in the absence of hyperparathyroidism. Dietary D reduction causes a decline in serum 25OHD and an upward trend in PTH. [source] The Trophic Effects of Oestrogen on Male Rat Anterior Pituitary LactotrophsJOURNAL OF NEUROENDOCRINOLOGY, Issue 5 2009L. A. Nolan Rapid but often transient changes in mitotic and apoptotic activity are important components of the pituitary response to changes in the hormonal environment. For example, bilateral adrenalectomy and orchidectomy each result in a wave of increased mitosis lasting approximately 1 week, mediated by the same population of trophically active and, to a large extent, endocrinologically inactive cells. By contrast to these tonic inhibitors of pituitary trophic activity, reports of a progressive increase in lactotroph numbers during pregnancy suggest that oestrogen is a potent and persistent pituitary mitogen. By comparing the amplitude and duration of male rat anterior pituitary mitotic responses to oestrogen treatment, to adrenalectomy, and to a combination of the two, the present study aimed to further clarify the characteristics of the oestrogen-induced trophic response, in particular whether lactotrophs are the predominant cell type involved. Adrenalectomy produced a wave of increased mitotic activity, which resolved within 7 days as expected, whereas oestrogen induced a significant increase in mitotic activity, which was sustained for the 14-day duration of the study. The trophic effects of combining adrenalectomy and oestrogen treatment were not additive in that the statistically insignificant upward trend in mitotic index during the first few days compared to oestrogen treatment alone was entirely abolished by oestrogen pre-treatment. The increase in mitotic activity in lactotrophs induced by oestrogen either with or without adrenalectomy did not result in an increase in the relative size of the prolactin-positive compared to prolactin-negative pituitary parenchymal cell numbers by the end of the study. Despite the marked increase in the lactotroph population that is reported during pregnancy, these data indicate that at least the early (i.e. within 2 weeks) mitotic response to pharmacological doses of oestrogen increases mitotic activity in the lactotroph subpopulation by only 5,8% relative to other cellular subpopulations. Unexpectedly, the mitotic response to oestrogen principally occurs in non-prolactin-containing cells and results in the recruitment, amongst other trophically responsive populations, of the entire subpopulation of prolactin-, adrenocorticotrophic hormone- and luteinising hormone-negative cells that respond mitotically to adrenalectomy. Oestrogen therefore has a previously unrecognised non-cell type-specific trophic effect in the pituitary that obscures the relative expansion of the lactotroph population by inducing concurrent increases in numbers of prolactin-negative cells, the nature of which at least in part remains to be determined. [source] Restoration of Lake Geneva: Expected versus observed responses of phytoplankton to decreases in phosphorusLAKES & RESERVOIRS: RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2002Orlane Anneville Abstract Long-term phytoplankton responses in Lake Geneva to a decline in phosphorus (P) loading are examined in terms of summer (July,September) biomass and community structure. With the rapid development of human activity on its banks and within its catchment area in the 1960s, this large subalpine hydrosystem shifted from oligotrophy to eutrophy within approximately one decade. Measures to reduce P loading were initiated successfully in the mid-1970s, when total P concentrations in the winter overturn altered from 90 ,g/L in 1980 to 40 ,g/L in 1998. Until the 1990s, algal descriptors improved as expected (biomass decline, reappearance of diatom species, increased contribution of nanoplankton). Then, paradoxically, and in contrast to the reappearance of oligotrophic species, summer algal biomass began to increase. Pre-summer (period prior to the beginning of the clear water phase) dissolved inorganic phosphorus concentrations and summer phytoplankton composition presented similar interannual trends. However, the succession of phytoplankton structure during the reoligotrophication phase differed greatly from that during the eutrophication period, and a recent abnormal upward trend in algal densities is mainly the result of the development of large species that formerly were only common from late September until November. This community change, mainly triggered by filamentous (Mougeotia gracillima, Tribonema) or motile forms (Dinobryon sociale, Cryptophycea), seems to have been induced by the earlier and greater deepening of the P-depleted layer. In addition to milder summers, this massive development of larger forms seems to be favoured by four of their biological features: tolerance to warm temperatures, tolerance to low-light intensity (might exploit deeper layers where P is not yet limiting), shapes not only providing a large surface to volume ratio or motility (adaptation to low-nutrient concentrations), but increasing resistance to zooplankton grazing. This paradoxical trend, perhaps reinforced by the decline on roach Rutilus rutilus abundance (an opportunistic planktivore), is likely to remain until the P-depleted zone is extended below the layers that can be frequently resupplied in nutrients by hydrodynamic processes. [source] A review of the effectiveness of aspartame in helping with weight controlNUTRITION BULLETIN, Issue 2 2006A. De La Hunty Summary, Strategies to reverse the upward trend in obesity rates need to focus on both reducing energy intake and increasing energy expenditure. The provision of low- or reduced-energy-dense foods is one way of helping people to reduce their energy intake and so enable weight maintenance or weight loss to occur. The use of intense sweeteners as a substitute for sucrose potentially offers one way of helping people to reduce the energy density of their diet without any loss of palatability. This report reviews the evidence for the effect of aspartame on weight loss, weight maintenance and energy intakes in adults and addresses the question of how much energy is compensated for and whether the use of aspartame-sweetened foods and drinks is an effective way to lose weight. All studies which examined the effect of substituting sugar with either aspartame alone or aspartame in combination with other intense sweeteners on energy intake or bodyweight were identified. Studies which were not randomised controlled trials in healthy adults and which did not measure energy intakes for at least 24 h (for those with energy intakes as an outcome measure) were excluded from the analysis. A minimum of 24-h energy intake data was set as the cut-off to ensure that the full extent of any compensatory effects was seen. A total of 16 studies were included in the analysis. Of these 16 studies, 15 had energy intake as an outcome measure. The studies which used soft drinks as the vehicle for aspartame used between 500 and about 2000 ml which is equivalent to about two to six cans or bottles of soft drinks every day. A significant reduction in energy intakes was seen with aspartame compared with all types of control except when aspartame was compared with non-sucrose controls such as water. The most relevant comparisons are the parallel design studies which compare the effects of aspartame with sucrose. These had an overall effect size of 0.4 standardised difference (SD). This corresponds to a mean reduction of about 10% of energy intake. At an average energy intake of 9.3 MJ/day (average of adult men and women aged 19,50 years) this is a deficit of 0.93 MJ/day (222 kcal/day or 1560 kcal/week), which would be predicted (using an energy value for obese tissue of 7500 kcal/kg) to result in a weight loss of around 0.2 kg/week with a confidence interval 50% either side of this estimate. Information on the extent of compensation was available for 12 of the 15 studies. The weighted average of these figures was 32%. Compensation is likely to vary with a number of factors such as the size of the caloric deficit, the type of food or drink manipulated, and timescale. An estimate of the amount of compensation with soft drinks was calculated from the four studies which used soft drinks only as the vehicle. A weighted average of these figures was 15.5%. A significant reduction in weight was seen. The combined effect figure of 0.2 SD is a conservative figure as it excludes comparisons where the controls gained weight because of their high-sucrose diet and the long-term follow-up data in which the aspartame groups regained less weight than the control group. An effect of 0.2 SD corresponds to about a 3% reduction in bodyweight (2.3 kg for an adult weighing 75 kg). Given the weighted average study length was 12 weeks, this gives an estimated rate of weight loss of around 0.2 kg/week for a 75-kg adult. The meta-analyses demonstrate that using foods and drinks sweetened with aspartame instead of sucrose results in a significant reduction in both energy intakes and bodyweight. Meta-analyses both of energy intake and of weight loss produced an estimated rate of weight loss of about 0.2 kg/week. This close agreement between the figure calculated from reductions in energy intake and actual measures of weight loss gives confidence that this is a true effect. The two meta-analyses used different sets of studies with widely differing designs and controls. Although this makes comparisons between them difficult, it suggests that the final figure of around 0.2 kg/week is robust and is applicable to the variety of ways aspartame-containing foods are used by consumers. This review has shown that using foods and drinks sweetened with aspartame instead of those sweetened with sucrose is an effective way to maintain and lose weight without reducing the palatability of the diet. The decrease in energy intakes and the rate of weight loss that can reasonably be achieved is low but meaningful and, on a population basis, more than sufficient to counteract the current average rate of weight gain of around 0.007 kg/week. On an individual basis, it provides a useful adjunct to other weight loss regimes. Some compensation for the substituted energy does occur but this is only about one-third of the energy replaced and is probably less when using soft drinks sweetened with aspartame. Nevertheless, these compensation values are derived from short-term studies. More data are needed over the longer term to determine whether a tolerance to the effects is acquired. To achieve the average rate of weight loss seen in these studies of 0.2 kg/week will require around a 220-kcal (0.93 MJ) deficit per day based on an energy value for obese tissue of 7500 kcal/kg. Assuming the higher rate of compensation (32%), this would require the substitution of around 330 kcal/day (1.4 MJ/day) from sucrose with aspartame (which is equivalent to around 88 g of sucrose). Using the lower estimated rate of compensation for soft drinks alone (15.5%) would require the substitution of about 260 kcal/day (1.1 MJ/day) from sucrose with aspartame. This is equivalent to 70 g of sucrose or about two cans of soft drinks every day. [source] Dynamics of petroleum markets in OECD countries in a monthly VAR,VEC model (1995,2007)OPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 1 2008Mehdi Asali This paper contains some results of a study in which the dynamics of petroleum markets in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is investigated through a vector auto regression (VAR),vector error correction model. The time series of the model comprises the monthly data for the variables demand for oil in the OECD, WTI in real term as a benchmark oil price, industrial production in OECD as a proxy for income and commercial stocks of crude oil and oil products in OECD for the time period of January 1995 to September 2007. The detailed results of this empirical research are presented in different sections of the paper; nevertheless, the general result that emerges from this study could be summarised as follows: (i) there is convincing evidence of the series being non-stationary and integrated of order one I(1) with clear signs of co-integration relations between the series; (ii) the VAR system of the empirical study appears stable and restores its dynamics as usual, following a shock to the rate of changes of different variables of the model, taking between five and eight periods (months in our case); (iii) we find the lag length of 2 as being optimal for the estimated VAR model; (iv) significant impact of changes in the commercial crude and products' inventory level on oil price and on demand for oil is highlighted in our empirical study and in different formulations of the VAR model, indicating the importance of the changes in the stocks' level on oil market dynamics; and (v) income elasticity of deman for oil appears to be prominent and statistically significant in most estimated models of the VAR system in the long run, while price elasticity of demand for oil is found to be negligible and insignificant in the short run. However, while aggregate oil consumption does not appear to be very sensitive to the changes of oil prices (which is believed to be because of the so-called ,rebound effect' of oil (energy) efficiency in the macro level) in the macro level, the declining trend of oil intensity (oil used for production of unit value of goods and services), particularly when there is an upward trend in oil price, clearly indicates the channels through which persistent changes in oil prices could affect the demand for oil in OECD countries. [source] A Complete Decomposition of Unemployment Dynamics using Longitudinal Grouped Duration Data,OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 1 2005Muriel Dejemeppe Abstract In this paper, we study the unemployment dynamics in the Belgian regions, Flanders and Wallonia, on the basis of aggregate stratified data covering the period 1973,93. We decompose the aggregate exit probability from unemployment into calendar time and, both observed and unobserved, compositional effects. We find that changes in the inflow composition affect the cyclical fluctuations in unemployment duration only marginally. However, the long-run improvement in the quality of entrants into unemployment, notably in terms of educational attainment, mitigates the strong upward trend in this duration. This is a new result as none of the existing studies purges the trend in the aggregate outflow rate of the variation in its composition. We also conclude that in Belgium, incidence explains as much as 45% of the evolution of unemployment. Finally, the diverging evolution of unemployment across Flanders and Wallonia predominantly results from a stronger decline in the exit rates from unemployment in Wallonia. [source] The trend of mean BMI values of US adults, birth cohorts 1882,1986 indicates that the obesity epidemic began earlier than hitherto thoughtAMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMAN BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2010John Komlos Background: The trend in the body mass index (BMI) values of the US population has not been estimated accurately because the time series data are unavailable and the focus has been on calculating period effects. Objectives: To estimate the trend and rate of change of BMI values by birth cohorts stratified by gender and ethnicity born 1882,1986. Methods: We use loess additive regression models to estimate age and trend effects of BMI values of US-born black and white adults measured between 1959 and 2006. We use all the National Health Examination Survey and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. Results: The increase in BMI was already underway among the birth cohorts of the early 20th century. The rate of increase was fastest among black females; for the three other groups under consideration, the rates of increase were similar. The generally persistent upward trend was punctuated by upsurges, particularly after each of the two world wars. The estimated rate of change of BMI values increased by 71% among black females between the birth cohorts 1955 and those of 1965 is indicative of the rapid increases in their weight. Conclusions: We infer that transition to postindustrial weights was a gradual process and began considerably earlier than hitherto supposed. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 22:631,638, 2010. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Carbon black and lung cancer: Testing a new exposure metric in a German cohortAMERICAN JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL MEDICINE, Issue 8 2007Peter Morfeld PhD Abstract Background A cohort mortality study of a large carbon black production plant in Germany showed an elevation in lung cancer mortality (SMR 1.81 (95% CI: 1.34,2.39)), although the elevation could not be linked to exposure to carbon black. Methods In follow up to a British study of carbon black production workers [Sorahan et al., 2007] in which risk of lung cancer progressively declined after cessation of employment,in contrast to an expected upward trend,we evaluated the German cohort with a similar methodology, that is, by focusing on the first 15 years after leaving employment in terms of lung cancer SMR. Results In our SMR analysis of the German cohort of 1,528 men and an inception cohort of 1,271 men, distinctly different results from the British cohort were observed. We observed a rising trend in lung cancer SMR, in contrast to the declining SMR trend noted in the British cohort. In fact, Cox models for lung cancer mortality with attained age as the basic time variable showed negative coefficients for the full and inception cohorts. Conclusions Our analysis of a large German cohort of carbon black workers does not support the concept of a declining risk of lung cancer following cessation of employment. Am. J. Ind. Med. 50:565,567, 2007. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Occupation and risk of esophageal and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma,AMERICAN JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL MEDICINE, Issue 1 2002Lawrence S. Engel PhD Abstract Background Adenocarcinomas of the esophagus and gastric cardia have risen dramatically in incidence over the past few decades, however, little research has been conducted on the occupational risk factors for these cancers. Methods In this population-based case-control study, lifetime job histories were compared between cases of esophageal adenocarcinoma (n,=,283), gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (n,=,259), and population controls (n,=,689). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ever employment and by duration in various occupational and industrial categories were calculated using unconditional logistic regression. Results The risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma was elevated for persons ever employed in administrative support (OR,=,1.5; 95%CI,=,1.0,2.1); financial, insurance, and real estate (OR,=,1.6; 95%CI,=,1.0,2.4); and health services (OR,=,2.2; 95%CI,=,1.2,3.9). The risk of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma was increased among transportation workers (OR,=,1.7; 95%CI,=,1.1,2.6), as well as among carpenters (OR,=,1.8; 95%CI,=,0.9,3.9) and workers in the furniture manufacturing industry (OR,=,2.4; 95%CI,=,0.9,6.3). However, we observed few duration,response relations between length of employment in any category and cancer risk. Conclusions This study revealed associations of esophageal adenocarcinoma with employment in administrative support, health services, and a category of financial, insurance, and real estate industries, and of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma with transportation and certain woodworking occupations. Some of these findings may be due to the play of chance associated with the multiple comparisons made in this study. Our results suggest that, overall, workplace exposures play a minor role in the etiology and upward trend of esophageal and gastric cardia adenocarcinomas. Am. J. Ind. Med. 42:11,22, 2002. Published 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] LESSONS FROM THREE DECADES OF GREEN REVOLUTION IN THE PHILIPPINESTHE DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, Issue 2 2006Jonna P. ESTUDILLO O13; O33; O53 The purpose of the current paper is to assess the changing contributions of successive generations of modern varieties of rice (MV) to yield increase and stability and the changes in total factor productivity (TFP) in irrigated, rainfed, and upland ecosystems in the Philippines. We found that the yield increase in irrigated ecosystem has been by far the highest, which can be attributed to the diffusion of pest- and disease-resistant MV. The contribution of MV to yield increase in the rainfed ecosystem has been less significant, but much more compared with that of upland ecosystem. The rainfed and upland ecosystems have experienced an upward trend in yield, albeit slowly, because of the diffusion of improved traditional varieties and MV suitable to adverse production environments. The contribution of MV cum irrigation has accounted for approximately 50% of the growth of TFP in Central Luzon. [source] Capital Flows, Consumption Booms and Asset Bubbles: A Behavioural Alternative to the Savings Glut Hypothesis,THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 544 2010David Laibson Bernanke (2005) hypothesised that a ,global savings glut' was causing large trade imbalances. However, we show that the global savings rates did not show a robust upward trend during the relevant period. Moreover, if there had been a global savings glut there should have been a large investment boom in the countries that imported capital. Instead, those countries experienced consumption booms. National asset bubbles explain the international imbalances. The bubbles raised consumption, resulting in large trade deficits. In a sample of 18 OECD countries plus China, movements in home prices alone explain half of the variation in trade deficits. [source] Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond YieldsTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 6 2003John Y. Campbell This paper explores the effect of equity volatility on corporate bond yields. Panel data for the late 1990s show that idiosyncratic firm-level volatility can explain as much cross-sectional variation in yields as can credit ratings. This finding, together with the upward trend in idiosyncratic equity volatility documented by Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, and Xu (2001), helps to explain recent increases in corporate bond yields. [source] Influence of a Rural Primary Care Clerkship on Medical Students' Intentions to Practice in a Rural CommunityTHE JOURNAL OF RURAL HEALTH, Issue 2 2000Alma R. Jones M.D., M.P.H. The Association of American Medical Colleges Medical School Graduation Questionnaire (GQ) for years 1988 through 1997 was examined to compare the career plans of students graduating from Morehouse School of Medicine (MSM) with those of all students graduating from United States medical schools before the period 1988 through 1992 and after the period 1993 through 1997, after the inception of the rural clerkship at MSM. Select GQ data items examined include student demographics, medical school experiences, and career plans. Statistical analyses were used to compare pre- and post-clerkship responses for MSM students and to compare their responses with the national trends. Results indicate that, following a transition period, MSM students showed an increased preference for a future career in a rural community. A smaller upward trend in the national data was observed. There appears to be an association between the rural clerkship experience at MSM and the stated preferred career choices of the students. [source] Eighteen years of saturation tagging data reveal a significant increase in nesting hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) on Long Island, AntiguaANIMAL CONSERVATION, Issue 3 2006J. I. Richardson Abstract Hawksbill sea turtle Eretmochelys imbricata nesting on Long Island, Antigua, West Indies (also known as Jumby Bay) has been monitored since 1987. Although the numbers of nesting females remained relatively constant for the first 11 survey seasons (1987,1997), inclusion of more recent data (1998,2004) in the analysis reveals a statistically significant upward trend. In particular, neophytes have shown a significant upturn in numbers, whereas the remigrant subpopulation has remained stationary. This indicates that recruitment is driving the upward trend in the total number of nesters. Predictive models based on the Poisson distribution suggest that the neophyte subpopulation will continue to grow in size by an average of 10% per annum. Model-based predictions and their limitations are discussed. The Jumby Bay Hawksbill Project, which has monitored and protected nesting hawksbills and their eggs since the project's onset, is one among several factors that may contribute to the recent increase in nesting females. [source] Seroprevalence of pertussis antitoxin (anti-PT) in Sweden before and 10 years after the introduction of a universal childhood pertussis vaccination programAPMIS, Issue 12 2009HANS O. HALLANDER The prevalence of IgG ELISA antibodies against pertussis toxin (anti-PT) was studied in two Swedish seroepidemiological studies. One was performed in 1997 when the new pertussis vaccination program was 1 year old (n = 3420). In 2007, when Pa vaccines had been used countrywide for 10 years in the universal child vaccination program, this study was repeated to analyze the effect of vaccination on anti-PT prevalence (n = 2379). Before the statistical analysis of seroprevalence, children vaccinated within the last 2 years before the serosurveys were excluded. The results indicate a reduced exposure to Bordetella pertussis in the population. The proportion of sera without measurable anti-PT antibodies increased significantly, aggregated over all comparable age groups, from 3.8% in people sampled in 1997 to 16.3% in people sampled in 2007. For cord blood, 1% was without measurable anti-PT antibodies in 1997 compared to a significantly higher level, 12%, in 2007. With anti-PT concentrations of ,50 and ,100 EU/ml as cutoff points for ,recent infection' the proportion above the cutoff points for younger children was significantly higher in 1997 than in 2007 at both cutoff points. For all adults, 20 years of age and older, the difference in proportions above the lower cutoff point was close to statistically significant, comparing 1997 with 2007. This was not the case at 100 EU/ml. In the 1997 samples of children, there was a significant downward trend of ,recent infections' at both cutoff points for three sampled age groups between 5 and 15 years of age from 21% at 5.0,5.5 years of age to 7% at 14.7,15.7 years for the lowest cutoff. In the 2007 samples of children, on the contrary, there was a significant continuous upward trend of ,recent infections', at both cutoff points, for four sampled age groups between 4 and 18 years of age , from 4% at 4,5 years of age to 16% at 17,18 years at the lowest cutoff. The continuous increase, with age of children with high anti-PT concentrations, supports the recent change in the general Swedish childhood vaccination program to include a pre-school booster at 5,6 years and a school-leaving booster at 14,16 years of age. [source] Emigration in the long run: evidence from two global centuriesASIAN-PACIFIC ECONOMIC LITERATURE, Issue 2 2009Timothy J. Hatton International migration in the last half century is often characterised as following an inexorable upward trend that can only be stemmed by tougher immigration policies in the rich OECD. This view fails to pay sufficient attention to the supply-side forces that drive emigration from poor to rich countries. European mass migrations before 1914 suggest that emigration typically traces out what is sometimes called the ,migration hump' and what we call an ,emigration life cycle'. This paper examines the forces that underlay the mass migration from pre-1914 Europe and compares them with the experience since 1970. Despite the great importance of restrictive immigration policy today, we find the same forces at work in poor source countries today as a century ago. Our results also suggest that, contrary to popular belief, emigration pressure from the Third World is beginning to ease. [source] Physical activity trends in Queensland (2002 to 2008): are women becoming more active than men?AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Issue 3 2010Corneel Vandelanotte Abstract Objective: Regular monitoring of population levels of physical activity is an effective way to assess change over time towards meeting public health recommendations. The objective of this study was to determine physical activity trends in Central Queensland over the period 2002 to 2008. Methods: Data was obtained from the Central Queensland Social Survey (CQSS) conducted annually from 2002 to 2008. A total sample of 8,936 adults aged 18 and over participated in seven cross-sectional surveys. Physical activity was measured using the Active Australia Questionnaire. Binary logistic regression was used to examine trends in sufficient physical activity. Results: Averaged over all survey years 46.5% of study participants met national physical activity guidelines. A small significant upward trend was found for meeting physical activity recommendations across all years (OR=1.03; 95%CI=1.01,1.05), indicating that the odds of meeting the guidelines increased by an average of 3% per year from 2002 to 2008. Slightly more men than women met the activity guidelines (ns); however a significant positive trend in achieving sufficient activity levels was present in women only (4%). Conclusions and Implications: Although an increasing trend for sufficient physical activity was observed, overall physical activity levels in Central Queensland remain suboptimal and more efforts to increase physical activity are needed. The gender differences in physical activity trends indicate that men and women might need to be targeted differently in health promotion messages. The continuous monitoring of population levels of physical activity in Australia, which allow both state specific and international comparisons, is needed. [source] Using computers to teach biochemistryBIOCHEMISTRY AND MOLECULAR BIOLOGY EDUCATION, Issue 3 2002Joyce P. Whitehead Abstract This paper describes a symposium entitled "Using Computers to Teach Biochemistry," which was presented at the fall, 2001 National Meeting of the American Chemical Society in Chicago, IL. The use of computers has increased in all areas of chemical education; however, the visualization capabilities needed to convey some aspects of biochemistry are quite complex, so the upward trend in the use of computers for this purpose has been especially significant. The various speakers in this symposium discussed the use of a wide range of instructional technologies, including presentation software, Chime, online data exercises, interactive visualization tools, self-designed tutorial programs, and bioinformatics. [source] Trends in the incidence of ectopic pregnancy in England and Wales from 1966 to 1996BJOG : AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBSTETRICS & GYNAECOLOGY, Issue 3 2000M. Rajkhowa Subspecialist Trainee (Reproductive Medicine) Objective To examine the incidence of ectopic pregnancy over the period 1966 to 1996. Setting England and Wales. Design Use of official statistics on hospital discharges, maternities, legal abortions and estimated populations of women aged 15,44 years. Main outcome measures Incidence rates of ectopic pregnancies. Results Between 1966 to 1970 and 1994 to 1996 the recorded incidence increased 4.5-fold from 3.45 to 15.5 per 1000 maternities, 3.8-fold from 3.25 to 12.4 per 1000 pregnancies and 3.1-fold from 30.2 to 94.8 per 100,000 women aged 15,44. The rate of increase was not uniform. Incidence approximately doubled between 1966 and 1985, when the official data collection system changed. By 1989, when data from the new system became available, there had been a further almost doubling of recorded incidence. Subsequently, the upward trend appears to have continued until 1991 to 1992 and has remained stable in the last four years of the study. The trends were similar in each of three 10-year age groups. Conclusions The recorded incidence of ectopic pregnancy has increased markedly over the last three decades. This may be partly due to artefacts of data recording and more sensitive diagnostic tests, but it is likely that the actual incidence has increased, probably due to a sexually transmitted agent. [source] Reduction in Ambulance Transports during a Public Awareness Campaign for Appropriate Ambulance UseACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE, Issue 3 2008Kenji Ohshige MD Abstract Objectives:, This study aimed to characterize the change in the upward trend in monthly ambulance transports that occurred during a citywide campaign for appropriate ambulance use. This study also investigated whether the number of ambulance transports for individuals with nonserious conditions decreased separately from the decrease in ambulance transports for individuals with serious conditions. Methods:, A retrospective time series survey was carried out on the number of ambulance transports that occurred per month over a 10-year period (1997,2006). This study focused on individuals transported by ambulance because of illness. Seasonal decomposition was applied to adjust for the seasonal effect on ambulance transport. The shift in the trend during the campaign period (April 2005,December 2006) was examined by means of linear regression analysis. Results:, The number of individuals transported by ambulance decreased during the campaign period. A decrease in the number of ambulance transports was observed for both nonserious and serious conditions. During the campaign period, the number of ambulance transports per month was estimated to have decreased by 530 (approximately 7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = ,729 to ,331) for individuals with nonserious conditions and by 37 (approximately 8%; 95% CI = ,53 to ,22) for individuals with serious conditions. Conclusions:, A campaign to educate the public on appropriate ambulance use may reduce ambulance calls for both nonserious and serious conditions. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||