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Turbulent Periods (turbulent + period)
Selected AbstractsDoes Correlation Between Stock Returns Really Increase During Turbulent Periods?ECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 1 2001Francois Chesnay Correlations betwen international equity markets are often claimed to increase during periods of high volatility. Therefore the benefits of international diversification are reduced when they are most needed, i.e. during turbulent periods. This paper investigates the relationship between international correlation and stock-market turbulence. We estimate a multivariate Markov-switching model, in which the correlation matrix varies across regimes. Subsequently, we test the null hypothesis that correlations are regime-independent. Using weekly stock returns for the S&P, the DAX and the FTSE over the period 1988,99, we find that international correlations significantly increased during turbulent periods. (J.E.L.: C53, G15). [source] Sustainable consumption and the financial sector: analysing the markets for responsible investment in Hong Kong and JapanINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CONSUMER STUDIES, Issue 2 2009Jacob ParkArticle first published online: 6 APR 200 Abstract The origins of the modern socially responsible investment (SRI) movement can be traced to the turbulent period in the 1960s when powerful social undercurrents including environmentalism and anti-war activism fuelled a rise, in a radical change, in the way society viewed faith, values and commerce. Today, nearly 1 out of every US$9 under professional management in the US is currently invested using social investment strategies while the European green and ethical investment market is estimated to be ,1 trillion or as much as 10,15% of the total funds under management. While some preliminary figures and analyses exist for countries outside these two regions, SRI has been, to date, largely explored within the context of North America and Europe. This is unfortunate as the sustainability of SRI as a consumer market is going to depend, to a great extent, to what happens outside of North America and Europe, and most notably in the rapidly developing Asian economies. In this article, I will explore the development of SRI as a mainstream financial consumer instrument in industrialized (Japan) and emerging (Hong Kong/China) economies of the Asia Pacific region. To fully analyse the SRI market development in Hong Kong and Japan, I will examine the following three issues and questions: first, how does the sustainable consumption framework offer a useful lens from which to explore SRI, and why is the Asia Pacific market and policy context so important for the broader issue of sustainable consumption? Second, what precisely is SRI and how did it develop into an important global financial investment vehicle? Third, how did the SRI market develop in the case of Hong Kong and Japan? I will then conclude the article with some analysis on the important lessons SRI market development in Hong Kong and Japan hold for market sustainability of the financial sector and sustainable consumption. [source] Beyond breaking bad newsCANCER, Issue 2 2008The roles of hope, hopefulness Abstract BACKGROUND. Hope is important to patients, yet physicians are sometimes unsure how to promote hope in the face of life-threatening illness. ANALYSIS. Hope in medicine is of two kinds: specific (hope for specific outcomes) and generalized (a nonspecific sense of hopefulness). At the time of diagnosis of a life-ending condition, the specific goal of a long life is dashed, and there may be no medically plausible specific outcome that the patient feels is worth wishing for. Yet the physician may nonetheless maintain an open-ended hopefulness that is compatible with the physician's obligation to be truthful; this hopefulness can help sustain patient and family through the turbulent period of adaptation to the unwelcome reality of major illness. As this adaptation evolves, the physician can help patients and families adapt to suffering and loss of control by selecting and achieving specific goals such as improvement of the patient's environment in hospital or hospice, pain control, and relief of sleeplessness. Thus hope for specific (but far more modest) future events can again become a positive part of the patient s emotional landscape. The authors do not propose that physicians remain upbeat no matter the circumstance, for they must respect the constraints of reality and the patients' mortality. However, physicians can provide both cognitive and affective support as patients learn how to adapt. Hope and hopefulness are both important in this process. SUMMARY. Hope is always important to patients. Physicians can and should promote hopefulness without endorsing unrealistic hope. Cancer 2008. © 2008 American Cancer Society. [source] Does Correlation Between Stock Returns Really Increase During Turbulent Periods?ECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 1 2001Francois Chesnay Correlations betwen international equity markets are often claimed to increase during periods of high volatility. Therefore the benefits of international diversification are reduced when they are most needed, i.e. during turbulent periods. This paper investigates the relationship between international correlation and stock-market turbulence. We estimate a multivariate Markov-switching model, in which the correlation matrix varies across regimes. Subsequently, we test the null hypothesis that correlations are regime-independent. Using weekly stock returns for the S&P, the DAX and the FTSE over the period 1988,99, we find that international correlations significantly increased during turbulent periods. (J.E.L.: C53, G15). [source] Estimation of the carbon sequestration by a heterogeneous forest: night flux corrections, heterogeneity of the site and inter-annual variabilityGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 11 2002MARC AUBINET Abstract Continuous measurements of the net CO2 flux exchanged in a mixed forest with the atmosphere were performed over 5 years at the Vielsalm experimental site. The carbon sequestration at the site was deduced by a summation of the measurements. Problems associated with this summation procedure were discussed. The carbon sequestration in the ecosystem was presented and its interannual variability was discussed. An estimation of the night flux correction was given. The correction was applied by replacing measurements made during quiet nights by a parameterization. The impact of the correction was shown to vary between 10 and 20% of the uncorrected flux, according to the year. The need to include the storage flux during turbulent periods was emphasized: its neglect leads to an error which will be greater than the one it tries to correct. It was also shown that the heterogeneity of the site made it necessary to split the data into separate series corresponding to the different vegetation patches and to fill the data gaps by using an algorithm that takes account of the weather conditions. Two series were defined, one corresponding to a beech subplot, the other to a conifer subplot. The uncertainty owing to the data split and the data gap-filling was about 15,20% annually. The carbon sequestration was then analysed in both the subplots. The length of the growing season was about 210 days in the beech and 240 days in the conifer. The carbon sequestration over 5 years was 2.28 kg C m2,2 in the beech and 3.58 kg C m2,2 in the conifer. The main difference between the species appeared in spring, between March and May, when the beeches were leafless. Significant interannual variations were observed in both the subplots. They appeared mainly in summer and were primarily because of the variations in the radiation and air humidity regimes. In addition, an impact of the interannual variation of the vegetation area index (VAI) and of the leaf initiation date was observed in the beech. Finally, a decline of the carbon sequestration efficiency of the ecosystem during the season was observed in both the subplots. It was because of neither the variation in any climatic variables nor VAI variation. [source] Value at risk from econometric models and implied from currency optionsJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 8 2004James ChongArticle first published online: 3 DEC 200 Abstract This paper compares daily exchange rate value at risk estimates derived from econometric models with those implied by the prices of traded options. Univariate and multivariate GARCH models are employed in parallel with the simple historical and exponentially weighted moving average methods. Overall, we find that during periods of stability, the implied model tends to overestimate value at risk, hence over-allocating capital. However, during turbulent periods, it is less responsive than the GARCH-type models, resulting in an under-allocation of capital and a greater number of failures. Hence our main conclusion, which has important implications for risk management, is that market expectations of future volatility and correlation, as determined from the prices of traded options, may not be optimal tools for determining value at risk. Therefore, alternative models for estimating volatility should be sought. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||