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Trend Analysis (trend + analysis)
Selected AbstractsTrend Analysis: An Approach for Companies that ListenDESIGN MANAGEMENT REVIEW, Issue 1 2005Justien Marseille Trend Analyst First page of article [source] Working in East German Socialism in 1980 and in Capitalism 15 Years Later: A Trend Analysis of a Transitional Economy's Working ConditionsAPPLIED PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 4 2000Doris Fay Many studies document the changes that have taken place in the new German states, the former German Democratic Republic (GDR), since the end of socialism. Most research looks at the changes that took place after the unification of East and West Germany, but little is known about the differences between the present, somewhat settled situation in the new German states and the stable situation in the GDR before the system change. The goal of this study was to enlarge our knowledge on these differences. With a trend analysis, aspects of work in the GDR in 1980 (n=337) were compared with the new German states in 1995 (n=168). Results showed that there was more job control and complexity, more activity in work improvement and better work organisation in the new German states than in the GDR. There was no difference in stress variables and social support by colleagues between both groups. Relationships with supervisors and appreciation for suggestions for work improvement were better in the GDR than after the introduction of capitalism. Beaucoup d'e´tudes portent sur les changements qui ont eu lieu depuis la fin du socialisme dans les nouveaux La¨nder allemands, à savoir l'ancienne Re´publique De´mocratique d'Allemagne (R.D.A.). La plupart des recherches s'occupent des changements apparus après la re´unification, mais on sait peu de choses des diffe´rences entre la situation actuelle, plus ou moins stabilise´e, et la situation telle qu'elle e´tait avant l'effondrement du système. Ce travail avait pour objectif d'approfondir nos connaissances sur ces diffe´rences. On a compare´ des dimensions du travail en R.D.A. en 1980 (N=337) et dans les nouveaux Länder en 1995 (N=168). Les re´sultats montrent qu'en R.D.A. le travail e´tait moins complexe, moins contrôle, moins bien organise´ avec un moindre souci d'ame´lioration. Aucune diffe´rence n'est apparue entre les deux groupes quant à la tension nerveuse et au soutien social apporte´ par les collègues. Les relations avec le supe´rieur et la reconnaissance pour les suggestions concernant les am¨eliorations à apporter au travail étaient moins satisfaisantes après l'introduction du capitalisme qu'elles ne l'e´taient antérieurement en R.D.A. [source] Regional Climate Change: Trend Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Series at Selected Canadian SitesCANADIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2000J. Stephen Clark Global climate change does not necessarily imply that temperature or precipitation is increasing at specific locations. The hypothesis of increasing temperature and precipitation trends associated with global climate change is tested using actual annual temperature and precipitation data for nine selected weather stations, spatially distributed across Canada. Vogelsang's (1998) partial sum and Woodward et al's (1997) bootstrap methods are used for testing for trend. Both methods suggest no warming in the Canadian temperature series except for Toronto, Ontario, which had significant increase over time, along with Moncton, New Brunswick, and Indian Head, Saskatchewan, which had marginal increases. There is no evidence of increasing trend in precipitation except for Moncton, New Brunswick, which had a significantly increasing trend. Thus, public policies designed to address the regional effects of climate change need to be adapted for a particular ecological zone, based on knowledge of the climate trends for that region, rather than on general global climate change patterns. Les changements climatiques à l'échelle planétaire ne signifient pas nécessairement que la température et les précipitations sont en augmentation dans des emplacements donnés. Nous avons testé I'hypothèse d'une assoviation de la tendance à la hausse de la température et des précipitations avec les changements climatiques planétaires à partir des données réelles de température et de précipitations obtenues à 9 stations d'observation climatique réparties dans les diverses régions du Canada. Nous utilisons, pour cefaire, la méthode des sommes partielles de Vogelsang (1998) et celle de rééchantillonnage bootstrap de Woodward et al (1997). Les deux méthodes ne révèlent aucun réchauffement de la température dans les séries chronologiques, sauf pour Toronto, en Ontario, où l'on constate une hausse significative en fonction du temps, ainsi que pour Moncton au Nouveau-Brunswick et Indian Head en Saskatchewan qui marquent de très légères augmentations. Rien n'indique une tendance à la hausse des précipitations, sauf à Moncton où se dessine une tendance significative dans ce sens. Les programmes publics destinés à faire face aux effets régionaux du changement climatique doivent donc être adaptés à chaque zone écologique particulière, à partir d"observations faites dans la région même, plutôt que de la configuration du changement climatique à l'échelle planétaire. [source] ChemInform Abstract: Crystalline Aluminum Hydroxy Fluorides , Suitable Reference Compounds for 19F Chemical Shift Trend Analysis of Related Amorphous Solids.CHEMINFORM, Issue 40 2008Rene Koenig Abstract ChemInform is a weekly Abstracting Service, delivering concise information at a glance that was extracted from about 200 leading journals. To access a ChemInform Abstract of an article which was published elsewhere, please select a "Full Text" option. The original article is trackable via the "References" option. [source] Evolution of channel morphology and hydrologic response in an urbanizing drainage basinEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 9 2006Peter A. Nelson Abstract The Dead Run catchment in Baltimore County, Maryland, has undergone intense urbanization since the late 1950s. Reconstruction of the channel planform from topographic maps dating back to the 1890s and aerial photographs dating back to the 1930s indicates that the channel has remained stable in planform since at least the 1930s. The relative stability of Dead Run contrasts with the alterations in channel morphology reported for other urbanizing streams in the Piedmont physiographic province of the eastern United States. Trend analyses of discharge records in Dead Run show that urban development and stormwater control measures have had significant impacts on the hydrologic response of the catchment. The flood hydraulics of the Dead Run catchment are examined for the event that occurred on 22 June 1972 in association with Hurricane Agnes. A two-dimensional hydraulic model, TELEMAC-2D, was used with a finite-element mesh constructed from a combination of high-resolution LiDAR topographic data and detailed field survey data to analyse the distribution of boundary shear stress and unit stream power along the channel and floodplain during flooding from Hurricane Agnes. The spatial and temporal distributions of these parameters, relative to channel gradient and channel/valley bottom geometry, provide valuable insights on the stability of the Dean Run channel. The stability of Dead Run's channel planform, in spite of extreme flooding and decades of urban development, is most likely linked to geological controls of channel and floodplain morphology. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Age,period,cohort modelling of alcohol volume and heavy drinking days in the US National Alcohol Surveys: divergence in younger and older adult trendsADDICTION, Issue 1 2009William C. Kerr ABSTRACT Aims The decomposition of trends in alcohol volume and heavy drinking days into age, period, cohort and demographic effects offers an important perspective on the dynamics of change in alcohol use patterns in the United States. Design The present study utilizes data from six National Alcohol Surveys conducted over the 26-year period between 1979 and 2005. Setting United States. Measurements Alcohol volume and the number of days when five or more and eight or more drinks were consumed were derived from overall and beverage-specific graduated frequency questions. Results Trend analyses show that while mean values of drinking measures have continued to decline for those aged 26 and older, there has been a substantial increase in both alcohol volume and 5+ days among those aged 18,25 years. Age,period,cohort models indicate a potential positive cohort effect among those born after 1975. However, an alternative interpretation of an age,cohort interaction where drinking falls off more steeply in the late 20s than was the case in the oldest surveys cannot be ruled out. For women only, the 1956,60 birth cohort appears to drink more heavily than those born just before or after. Models also indicate the importance of income, ethnicity, education and marital status in determining these alcohol measures. Conclusions Increased heavy drinking among young adults in recent surveys presents a significant challenge for alcohol policy and may indicate a sustained increase in future US alcohol consumption. [source] Association of the metabolic syndrome with depression and anxiety in Japanese men: A 1-year cohort studyDIABETES/METABOLISM: RESEARCH AND REVIEWS, Issue 8 2009Takeaki Takeuchi Abstract Background Recent studies on the association between the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and depression have reported conflicting findings. This 1-year cohort study aims to evaluate the association of MetS with the development of both depression and anxiety. Methods The cohort comprised 956 Japanese male employees of an enterprise (mean age, 42.7 years; SD, 10.2 years). MetS was diagnosed according to the International Diabetes Federation criteria. The psychological conditions of depression and anxiety were assessed in 2 successive years by using the profile of mood states (POMS) questionnaire and by conducting clinical interviews as per the fourth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV). We evaluated the temporal and dose-response relationships between MetS and the development of depression and anxiety, controlling for potential confounding factors like age and lifestyle-related factors. Results We identified a positive relationship between MetS at baseline and new-onset depression in the subsequent year (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.10,4.17). Of the five MetS components examined, only waist circumference was significantly related to new-onset depression (OR 2.08, 1.23,3.50). Trend analysis revealed a significant positive trend of association between the number of MetS components identified and new-onset depression (Ptrend < 0.01), but not between Mets and new-onset anxiety. Conclusions Our results suggest that MetS is a predictive factor for the development of depression, and that waist circumference largely contributes to the association between MetS and depression. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Comparison of phenology trends by land cover class: a case study in the Great Basin, USAGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2008BETHANY A. BRADLEY Abstract Direct impacts of human land use and indirect impacts of anthropogenic climate change may alter land cover and associated ecosystem function, affecting ecological goods and services. Considerable work has been done to identify long-term global trends in vegetation greenness, which is associated with primary productivity, using remote sensing. Trend analysis of satellite observations is subject to error, and ecosystem change can be confused with interannual variability. However, the relative trends of land cover classes may hold clues about differential ecosystem response to environmental forcing. Our aim was to identify phenological variability and 10-year trends for the major land cover classes in the Great Basin. This case study involved two steps: a regional, phenology-based land cover classification and an identification of phenological variability and 10-year trends stratified by land cover class. The analysis used a 10-year time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite data to assess regional scale land cover variability and identify change. The phenology-based regional classification was more detailed and accurate than national or global products. Phenological variability over the 10-year period was high, with substantial shifts in timing of start of season of up to 9 weeks. The mean long-term trends of montane land cover classes were significantly different from valley land cover classes due to a poor response of montane shrubland and pinyon-juniper woodland to the early 1990s drought. The differential response during the 1990s suggests that valley ecosystems may be more resilient and montane ecosystems more susceptible to prolonged drought. This type of regional-scale land cover analysis is necessary to characterize current patterns of land cover phenology, distinguish between anthropogenically driven land cover change and interannual variability, and identify ecosystems potentially susceptible to regional and global change. [source] Contrasts in cortical magnesium, phospholipid and energy metabolism between migraine syndromes.HEADACHE, Issue 4 2003MD Boska Neurology. 2002;58:1227-1233. BACKGROUND: Previous single voxel (31)P MRS pilot studies of migraine patients have suggested that disordered energy metabolism or Mg(2+) deficiencies may be responsible for hyperexcitability of neuronal tissue in migraine patients. These studies were extended to include multiple brain regions and larger numbers of patients by multislice (31)P MR spectroscopic imaging. METHODS: Migraine with aura (MWA), migraine without aura (MwoA), and hemiplegic migraine patients were studied between attacks by (31)P MRS imaging using a 3-T scanner. RESULTS: Results were compared with those in healthy control subjects without headache. In MwoA, consistent increases in phosphodiester concentration [PDE] were measured in most brain regions, with a trend toward increase in [Mg(2+)] in posterior brain. In MWA, phosphocreatine concentration ([PCr]) was decreased to a minor degree in anterior brain regions and a trend toward decreased [Mg(2+)] was observed in posterior slice 1, but no consistent changes were found in phosphomonoester concentration [PME], [PDE], inorganic phosphate concentration ([Pi]), or pH. In hemiplegic migraine patients, [PCr] had a tendency to be lower, and [Mg(2+)] was significantly lower than in the posterior brain regions of control subjects. Trend analysis showed a significant decrease of brain [Mg(2+)] and [PDE] in posterior brain regions with increasing severity of neurologic symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the results support no substantial or consistent abnormalities of energy metabolism, but it is hypothesized that disturbances in magnesium ion homeostasis may contribute to brain cortex hyperexcitability and the pathogenesis of migraine syndromes associated with neurologic symptoms. In contrast, migraine patients without a neurologic aura may exhibit compensatory changes in [Mg(2+)] and membrane phospholipids that counteract cortical excitability. Comment: If the theory of hyperexcitability of migraine brain is correct, basic scientists will need to find clear markers for the neuronal abnormalities that underlie this excitability. Using their techniques, these researchers could not find such markers. SJT [source] Analysis of snow cover variability and change in Québec, 1948,2005HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 14 2010Ross D. Brown Abstract The spatial and temporal characteristics of annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax) and fall and spring snow cover duration (SCD) were analysed over Québec and adjacent area for snow seasons 1948/1949,2004/2005 using reconstructed daily snow depth and SWE. Snow cover variability in Québec was found to be significantly correlated with most of the major atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the climate of eastern North America but the influence was characterized by strong multidecadal-scale variability. The strongest and most consistent relationship was observed between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and fall SCD variability over western Québec. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a limited impact on Québec snow cover. Evidence was found for a shift in circulation over the study region around 1980 associated with an abrupt increase in sea level pressure (SLP) and decreases in winter precipitation, snow depth and SWE over much of southern Québec, as well as changes in the atmospheric patterns with significant links to snow cover variability. Trend analysis of the reconstructed snow cover over 1948,2005 provided evidence of a clear north,south gradient in SWEmax and spring SCD with significant local decreases over southern Québec and significant local increases over north-central Québec. The increase in SWEmax over northern Québec is consistent with proxy data (lake levels, tree growth forms, permafrost temperatures), with hemispheric-wide trends of increasing precipitation over higher latitudes, and with projections of global climate models (GCMs). Copyright © 2010 Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons. Ltd [source] Sea-level pressure variability in the Po Plain (1765,2000) from homogenized daily secular recordsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2004Maurizio Maugeri Abstract A homogenized 236 year daily regional sea-level pressure (SLP) record is constructed for the Po Plain (north Italy) by means of six station records: Bologna, Genoa, Lugano, Milan, Padua and Turin. Station records are subjected to a first homogenization in order to reduce all observations to sea level and to 0°C and to correct the bias introduced by calculating daily means using different sets of observation hours. A second homogenization is performed by means of comparison with other Italian and European series. After homogenization, the root-mean square error of the yearly station records is evaluated within 0.2 hPa after 1880, whereas for the periods 1834,1880 and 1765,1833 it is estimated as between 0.2 and 0.3 hPa and as around 0.4 hPa respectively. Trend analysis is applied to the annual and seasonal regional records and concerns both SLP and its day-to-day variability. The results show that neither the SLP nor its day-to-day variability have an evident trend when considering the entire 1765,2000 period. However, if the series is divided roughly in two parts, then significant trends can be highlighted. The annual and seasonal regional SLP records are also compared with corresponding regional temperature series. The results show that, especially in spring and in summer, temperature and SLP are in good agreement. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Increasing deaths from opioid analgesics in the United States,PHARMACOEPIDEMIOLOGY AND DRUG SAFETY, Issue 9 2006Leonard J. Paulozzi MD Abstract Purpose Since 1990, numerous jurisdictions in the United States (US) have reported increases in drug poisoning mortality. During the same time period, the use of opioid analgesics has increased markedly as part of more aggressive pain management. This study documented a dramatic increase in poisoning mortality rates and compared it to sales of opioid analgesics nationwide. Methods Trend analysis of drug poisoning deaths using underlying cause of death and multiple cause of death mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and opioid analgesic sales data from the US Drug Enforcement Administration. Results Unintentional drug poisoning mortality rates increased on average 5.3% per year from 1979 to 1990 and 18.1% per year from 1990 to 2002. The rapid increase during the 1990s reflects the rising number of deaths attributed to narcotics and unspecified drugs. Between 1999 and 2002, the number of opioid analgesic poisonings on death certificates increased 91.2%, while heroin and cocaine poisonings increased 12.4% and 22.8%, respectively. By 2002, opioid analgesic poisoning was listed in 5528 deaths,more than either heroin or cocaine. The increase in deaths generally matched the increase in sales for each type of opioid. The increase in deaths involving methadone tracked the increase in methadone used as an analgesic rather than methadone used in narcotics treatment programs. Conclusions A national epidemic of drug poisoning deaths began in the 1990s. Prescriptions for opioid analgesics also increased in this time frame and may have inadvertently contributed to the increases in drug poisoning deaths. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Trend analysis of Indian summer monsoon rainfall at different spatial scalesATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 4 2009Subimal Ghosh Abstract The results obtained from a conventional trend analysis of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall over a larger region are contradicted when analysis is performed at a finer resolution because of spatial variability and heterogeneity in the rainfall pattern. The present study analyzes the trend of summer monsoon rainfall all over India at a finer spatial resolution (1° latitude × 1° longitude) to identify the places that have a significant trend in terms of both rainfall amount and occurrence. The results obtained from this study are compared with those of a recent study by Goswami et al. (2006), where trend analysis is performed over a larger region [Central India (CI); 10° latitude × 12° longitude; assumed to be homogeneous in that study]. The increasing trend of occurrence of heavy rainfall and decreasing trend of occurrence of moderate rainfall, as concluded from that study, are contradicted by the present results for some places in CI. The present analysis shows spatially varying mixed responses of global warming toward rainfall occurrence and amounts all over India. The perception of increase in daily rainfall amount and occurrence due to climate change is found to be not correct for some of the regions in India. The possible reason may be the spatial variability of local changes such as rapid urbanization, industrialization and deforestation. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Have Prolonged Corrected QT Interval (QTc)CLINICAL CARDIOLOGY, Issue 12 2009Weiju Li MD Abstract Background Prolongation of corrected QT interval (QTc) increases morbidity and mortality and QTc has been found to be longer in patients with diabetes mellitus than in healthy controls. It is still inconclusive whether the metabolic syndrome results in QTc prolongation. Hypothesis We hypothesized that metabolic syndrome might contribute to risk of QTc prolongation. The hypothesis was tested in a large population. Methods A total of 5,815 individuals (men: 1,950, women: 3,865 aged 20,80 years) were enrolled. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the revised third National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP-ATP III). QTc was calculated by using Bazett and Fridericia equations and the corrected JT interval (JTc) was derived by subtracting the QRS duration from the QTcB. All individuals had physical examinations, electrocardiograms, echocardiography, and blood tests. Results Individuals with metabolic syndrome had longer QTcs and JTc than those without metabolic syndrome (439.84 ms versus 430.90 ms in men, 456.37 ms versus 445.12 ms in women, respectively, p < 0.001 using Bazett formula). The more the number of abnormal metabolic parameters they had, the longer the QTcs and JTc they had. Trend analysis indicated that QTcB, QTcF, and JTc were significantly correlated to the number of abnormal metabolic parameters both in men and in women. After being adjusted for conventional risk factors, QTcB, QTcF, and JTc remained negatively associated with serum potassium concentration and positively associated with interventricular septal thickness. Conclusions Metabolic syndrome is a risk factor for prolonged QTc, which may further increase cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the subjects with metabolic syndrome. Copyright © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] Relationship between impulse oscillometry and spirometric indices in cystic fibrosis childrenACTA PAEDIATRICA, Issue 6 2009Ludovic Moreau Abstract Background: The aim of our retrospective study was to determine the relationship between impulse oscillometry (IOS) data and spirometric tests in cystic fibrosis (CF) children. Methods: Thirty CF children aged 4,19 years have performed lung function tests (LFT). A subset of 15 patients repeated LFT on five separate occasions. IOS parameters were respiratory resistance (Rrs), reactance (Xrs) and impedance at 5 Hz (R5, X5, Zr) and the resonant frequency (Fres). Spirometry indices (SI) included forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), forced expiratory flow during the middle half of FVC (FEF25,75) and forced vital capacity (FVC). Results: An inverse relationship was observed between raw values of R5, Zr, Fres and SI respectively, and X5 correlated positively with SI. Although significant, these correlations were poor. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were constructed to identify cutoff points for IOS parameters to discriminate between children according to predefined FEV1 thresholds (percent predicted), generally used to categorize the level of lung function impairment. No acceptable cutoff points can be found for IOS parameters. Trends analyses in the subgroup of 15 patients showed a significant decline of FEV1 between the first and the fifth evaluation. None of the IOS indices demonstrated a consistent tendency, apart from a slight decrease of Fres. Conclusion: IOS measurements presented an insufficient sensitivity to detect and follow bronchial obstruction in CF patients. [source] Migration of hawksbill turtles Eretmochelys imbricata from Tortuguero, Costa RicaECOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2005Sebastian Troëng The hawksbill turtle Eretmochelys imbricata is a widely distributed and critically endangered species that feeds on sponges and fills an important ecological role in the coral reef ecosystem. At Tortuguero, Costa Rica, trend analyses indicate considerable decline in nesting estimated at 77.2,94.5% between 1956 and 2003, as a result of excessive turtle fishing. We analyzed flipper tag returns, satellite telemetry and genetic samples to determine movements and habitat use of adult female Tortuguero hawksbills. Tag returns and satellite telemetry show hawksbills migrate to foraging grounds in Nicaragua and Honduras. Genetic analysis indicates the hawksbills may also migrate to Cuban, Puerto Rican, and possibly Mexican waters. We conclude hawksbills represent an internationally shared resource. There is a close correlation between tag recapture sites, hawksbill foraging grounds and coral reef distribution. Caribbean coral reef decline may reduce food availability and negatively impact hawksbill turtles. Conversely, hawksbill decline may shift the balance on coral reefs by reducing predation pressure on sponges and hence make coral reefs less resilient to natural and anthropogenic threats. Strategies aiming to conserve hawksbills and coral reefs must consider both the extensive hawksbill migrations and the close relationship between the species and the coral reef ecosystem. [source] Spatial and temporal variability of the phenological seasons in Germany from 1951 to 1996GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2001Annette Menzel Abstract Various indications for shifts in plant and animal phenology resulting from climate change have been observed in Europe. This analysis of phenological seasons in Germany of more than four decades (1951,96) has several major advantages: (i) a wide and dense geographical coverage of data from the phenological network of the German Weather Service, (ii) the 16 phenophases analysed cover the whole annual cycle and, moreover, give a direct estimate of the length of the growing season for four deciduous tree species. After intensive data quality checks, two different methods ,,linear trend analyses and comparison of averages of subintervals , were applied in order to determine shifts in phenological seasons in the last 46 years. Results from both methods were similar and reveal a strong seasonal variation. There are clear advances in the key indicators of earliest and early spring (,0.18 to ,0.23 d y,1) and notable advances in the succeeding spring phenophases such as leaf unfolding of deciduous trees (,0.16 to ,0.08 d y,1). However, phenological changes are less strong during autumn (delayed by +,0.03 to +,0.10 d y,1 on average). In general, the growing season has been lengthened by up to ,0.2 d y,1 (mean linear trends) and the mean 1974,96 growing season was up to 5 days longer than in the 1951,73 period. The spatial variability of trends was analysed by statistical means and shown in maps, but these did not reveal any substantial regional differences. Although there is a high spatial variability, trends of phenological phases at single locations are mirrored by subsequent phases, but they are not necessarily identical. Results for changes in the biosphere with such a high resolution with respect to time and space can rarely be obtained by other methods such as analyses of satellite data. [source] Inflammatory bowel disease patients who leave hospital against medical advice: Predictors and temporal trendsINFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASES, Issue 6 2009Gilaad G. Kaplan MD Abstract Background: Leaving hospital against medical advice (AMA) may have consequences with respect to health-related outcomes; however, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients have been inadequately studied. Thus, we determined the prevalence of self-discharge, assessed predictors of AMA status, and evaluated time trends. Methods: We analyzed the 1995,2005 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) to identify 93,678 discharges with a primary diagnosis of IBD admitted to the hospital emergently and did not undergo surgery. We described the proportion of IBD patients who left AMA. Predictors of AMA status were evaluated using a multivariate logistic regression model and temporal trend analyses were performed with Poisson regression models. Results: Between 1995 and 2005, 1.31% of IBD patients left hospitals AMA. Crohn's disease (CD) patients were more likely to leave AMA (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.53; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.30,1.79). Characteristics associated with leaving AMA included: ages 18,34 (aOR, 7.77, 95% CI: 4.34,13.89); male (aOR, 1.75; 95% CI: 1.55,1.99); Medicaid (aOR, 4.55; 95% CI: 3.81,5.43) compared to private insurance; African Americans (aOR, 1.34; 95% CI: 1.09,1.64) compared to white; substance abuse (aOR, 2.75; 95% CI: 2.14,3.54); and psychosis (aOR, 1.55; 95% CI: 1.13,2.14). The incidence rates of self-discharge for CD patients were stable (P > 0.05) between 1995 and 1999, while they significantly (P < 0.0001) increased after 1999. In contrast, AMA rates for UC patients remained stable during the study period. Conclusions: Approximately 1 in 76 IBD patients admitted emergently for medical management leave the hospital AMA. These were primarily disenfranchised patients who may lack adequate outpatient follow-up. (Inflamm Bowel Dis 2009) [source] The influence of the winter Arctic oscillation on the northern Russia spring temperatureINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2002Vladimir N. Kryjov Abstract Correlation and trend analyses are applied to examine relationships between the northern Russia snow/ice season surface air temperature (SAT) and winter circulation, represented by the January,March Arctic oscillation (AO) index. The 1935,99 series of winter and spring monthly SAT from five stations are used, with the winter season being defined as January,March and the spring season being defined specifically for each station in accordance with local snow/ice season duration from April,May through April,July. It is shown that the influence of the winter circulation on SAT is evident at least until the end of snow/ice season, which suggests that this influence is implemented via feedbacks provided by snow and sea ice. The winter AO accounts for some 25,50% (15,20%) of the winter (spring) SAT variance. More than 50% of the 30 year (1968,97) trends in both winter and spring SAT for northwestern Russia and more than 40% for northwestern Siberia are linearly correlated with the winter AO. It is proposed that in the Arctic Ocean regions, where snow and ice do not melt completely, the winter AO influence on SAT is likely to be evident at least until the next year's winter. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society [source] "Reactive Ethnicity" or "Assimilation"?INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION REVIEW, Issue 4 2006Arguments, First Empirical Evidence for Labor Migrants in Germany, Statements In this article, we scrutinize the often stated assumption that labor migrants in Germany turn away from integration and reaffirm their ethnicity by examining their identificational, cognitive, and social assimilation processes. Using data from the German Socio-economic Panel, we present trend analyses of different hostland- and homeland-related indicators for the past fifteen years. Results are presented separately for first- and second-generation migrants from Turkey, the EU, and the former Yugoslavia. While not all assimilation-related indicators change a great deal over time, they show at least a substantial difference between the first and the second generation. With regard to the homeland-related indicators, the results by no means suggest that Turkish migrants try to compensate for their comparatively disadvantaged social status by revitalizing ethnic cultural habits or homeland-oriented identifications. [source] The Effect of Transitioning to Medicare Part D Drug Coverage in Seniors Dually Eligible for Medicare and MedicaidJOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 12 2008William H. Shrank MD OBJECTIVES: To evaluate medication use, out-of-pocket spending, and medication switching during the transition period for patients dually eligible for Medicaid and Medicare (dual eligibles). DESIGN: Time-trend analysis, using segmented linear regression. SETTING: Patient-level pharmacy dispensing data from January 2005 to December 2006 from a large pharmacy chain with stores in 34 states. PARTICIPANTS: Dual eligibles aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Changes in utilization, patient copayments, and medication switching were analyzed using interrupted time trend analyses. Utilization and spending were evaluated for five study drugs: clopidogrel, proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), warfarin, and statins (essential drugs covered by Part D plans) and benzodiazepines (not covered through Part D but potentially covered through Medicaid). RESULTS: Drug use for 13,032 dual eligibles was evaluated. There was no significant effect of the transition to Medicare Part D on use of all study drugs, including the uncovered benzodiazepines. Cumulative reductions were seen in copayments for all covered drugs after implementation of Part D, ranging from 25% annually for PPIs to 53% for warfarin, but there was a larger increase in copayments, 91% annually, for benzodiazepines after the transition. The rate of switching medications was 3.0 times as great for the PPIs after implementation of Part D than before implementation, but there was no significant change in the other study drug classes. CONCLUSION: These findings in a single, large pharmacy chain indicate that the transition plan for dual eligibles led to less medication discontinuation and switching than many had expected. The substantially greater cost sharing for benzodiazepines highlights the importance of implementing a thoughtful transition plan when executing such a national policy. [source] Prescription Duration After Drug Copay Changes in Older People: Methodological AspectsJOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 3 2002Sebastian Schneeweiss MD OBJECTIVES: Impact assessment of drug benefits policies is a growing field of research that is increasingly relevant to healthcare planning for older people. Some cost-containment policies are thought to increase noncompliance. This paper examines mechanisms that can produce spurious reductions in drug utilization measures after drug policy changes when relying on pharmacy dispensing data. Reference pricing, a copayment for expensive medications above a fixed limit, for angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors in older British Columbia residents, is used as a case example. DESIGN: Time series of 36 months of individual claims data. Longitudinal data analysis, adjusting for autoregressive data. SETTING: Pharmacare, the drug benefits program covering all patients aged 65 and older in the province of British Columbia, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: All noninstitutionalized Pharmacare beneficiaries aged 65 and older who used ACE inhibitors between 1995 and 1997 (N = 119,074). INTERVENTION: The introduction of reference drug pricing for ACE inhibitors for patients aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Timing and quantity of drug use from a claims database. RESULTS: We observed a transitional sharp decline of 11%± a standard error of 3% (P = .02) in the overall utilization rate of all ACE inhibitors after the policy implementation; five months later, utilization rates had increased, but remained under the predicted prepolicy trend. Coinciding with the sharp decrease, we observed a reduction in prescription duration by 31% in patients switching to no-cost drugs. This reduction may be attributed to increased monitoring for intolerance or treatment failure in switchers, which in turn led to a spurious reduction in total drug utilization. We ruled out the extension of medication use over the prescribed duration through reduced daily doses (prescription stretching) by a quantity-adjusted analysis of prescription duration. CONCLUSION: The analysis of prescription duration after drug policy interventions may provide alternative explanations to apparent short-term reductions in drug utilization and adds important insights to time trend analyses of drug utilization data in the evaluation of drug benefit policy changes. J Am Geriatr Soc 50:521,525, 2002. [source] Age-related variations and sex differences in gender cleavage during middle childhoodPERSONAL RELATIONSHIPS, Issue 2 2001ROSANNE BURTON SMITH Gender cleavage, the segregation of the sexes, is a powerful phenomenon affecting socialization during childhood, but its developmental trajectory is far from clear. Sociometric responses by 299 boys and girls in Grades 3 to 6 from a group preference record were used to investigate age-related variations and sex differences in gender cleavage. Moreno's (1953) developmental model of gender cleavage was examined in the light of sociocultural changes, as well as advances in the theory and measurement of gender cleavage. Sex differences were found in same-gender preference, with older elementary girls showing greater same-gender preference than boys of the same age. However, this finding, plus the absence of gender differences in cross-gender evaluations, did not support more recent developmental accounts of gender cleavage. Linear trend analyses contradicted Moreno's basic precept of increasing same-gender preference between Grades 3 and 6. While same-gender acceptance and rejection were relatively similar regardless of grade level, cross-gender acceptance was greater in higher than in lower grades and the reverse was true for rejection. Furthermore, weaker gender cleavage effects in rejection data than in acceptance data suggested that strong same-gender liking does not infer equally robust cross-gender dislike. Gender cleavage appears to be relative rather than absolute. A more complex model is proposed incorporating sex differences as well as rejection evaluations [source] Increased epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) volume in type 2 diabetes mellitus and association with metabolic syndrome and severity of coronary atherosclerosisCLINICAL ENDOCRINOLOGY, Issue 6 2009Chao-Ping Wang Summary Objective, Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) is a part of visceral fat deposited around the heart between the pericardium and myocardium along the distribution of coronary arteries. EAT thickness is reported to be associated with coronary atherosclerosis; however, no study has measured EAT volume in patients with type 2 diabetes or investigate its association with coronary artery disease. Design, A hospital-based case control study. Patients, A total of 49 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and 78 nondiabetic controls were studied. Measurements, Cardiac multislice computed tomography was used to measure EAT volume, Gensini score, coronary artery calcium score and, coronary lesions. The relationships between EAT volume, markers of coronary atherosclerosis and anthropometric and biochemical parameters of metabolic syndrome (MetS) were investigated. Results, EAT volume was significantly higher in patients with T2DM than in nondiabetic subjects (166·1 ± 60·6 cm3 vs. 123·4 ± 41·8 cm3, P < 0·0001). Logistic regression analysis revealed independent and significant associations between EAT and diabetic status. EAT volume was significantly associated with components of MetS (BMI, waist circumference, fasting serum glucose, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides levels), Gensini score, coronary lesions, coronary disease and coronary calcium scores. Univariate, multivariate and trend analyses confirmed that EAT volume was associated with MetS component clustering and the coronary atherosclerosis index. Conclusions, The analytical results indicate that EAT volume is increased in T2DM patients and is associated with unfavourable components of MetS and coronary atherosclerosis. The close anatomical relationship between EAT and the coronary arteries, combined with other evidence indicating that EAT is a biologically active adipokine-secreting tissue, suggest that EAT participates in the pathogenesis of diabetic coronary atherosclerosis. [source] Constrained multivariate trend analysis applied to water quality variablesENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 1 2002D. M. Cooper Abstract Constrained multivariate regression analysis is used to model trends and seasonal effects in time series measurements of water quality variables. The constraint used ensures that when identifying trends the scientifically important charge balance of model-fitted concentrations is maintained, while accounting for between variable dependencies. The analysis is a special case of linear reduction of dimensionality which preserves the integrity of a subset of the original variables, while allowing the remainder to be identified as linear combinations of this subset. The technique is applied to water quality measurements made at the outflow from Loch Grannoch, an acid-sensitive loch in Scotland. A reduction in marine ion concentrations is observed in water samples collected four times a year over the period 1988,2000. This is identified with long term variability in the marine component in rainfall. Separation of the non-marine component of the solute load shows a reduction in non-marine sulphate and calcium concentrations, and an increase in the non-marine sodium concentration. There is no significant change in either alkalinity or acid neutralizing capacity over the period. The reduction in non-marine sulphate is consistent with reductions in atmospheric inputs of sulphate. However, the reduction in sulphate has not been accompanied by a reduction in the acidity of water samples from Loch Grannoch, but with a reduction in calcium concentration and an apparent increase in organic acids, as evidenced by increased dissolved organic carbon concentrations, with possible increases in nitrate and non-marine sodium concentrations. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Methods for the analysis of trends in streamflow response due to changes in catchment conditionENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 7 2001R. A. Letcher Abstract Two algorithms for analysing changes in streamflow response due to changes in land use and farm dam development, based on the Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) and the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) methods, were compared on three catchments in the Macquarie River Basin in NSW, Australia. In order to account for the influence of climatic conditions on streamflow response, the IHACRES conceptual rainfall-runoff model was calibrated on a daily time step over two-year periods then simulated over the entire period of concurrent rainfall, streamflow and temperature data. Residuals or differences between observed and simulated flows were calculated. The EGLS method was applied to a smoothing of the residual (daily) time series. Such residuals represent the difference between the simulated streamflow response to a fixed catchment condition (in the calibration period) and that due to the actual varying conditions throughout the record period. The GAM method was applied to quarterly aggregated residuals. The methods provided similar qualitative results for trends in residual streamflow response in each catchment for models with a good fitting performance on the calibration period in terms of a number of statistics, i.e. the coefficient of efficiency R2, bias and average relative parameter error (ARPE). It was found that the fit of the IHACRES model to the calibration period is critically important in determining trend values and significance. Models with well identified parameters and less correlation between rainfall and model residuals are likely to give the best results for trend analysis. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Supraspinal Modulation of Trigeminal Nociception and PainHEADACHE, Issue 5 2009Amy E. Williams MA Objective., This study examined modulation of trigeminal pain/nociception by 2 supraspinal mechanisms: emotional controls of nociception and diffuse noxious inhibitory controls. Background., Prior research suggests emotional picture viewing (emotional controls) and tonic noxious stimuli (diffuse noxious inhibitory controls) engage supraspinal mechanisms to modulate pain and nociceptive processes. It is currently unknown, however, whether emotional controls modulate trigeminal pain and nociception. Additionally, the influences of emotional controls and diffuse noxious inhibitory controls have not been compared in the same group of participants. Methods., Noxious electrodermal stimuli were delivered to the trigeminal nerve using a concentric electrode designed to selectively activate nociceptive fibers. Trigeminal nociception and pain were assessed (34 participants) from the nociceptive blink reflex and pain ratings, respectively. Emotional controls were engaged by presentation of standardized picture stimuli (pleasant, neutral, and unpleasant) shown to reliably evoke pleasure-induced inhibition and displeasure-induced facilitation of pain and nociception. Diffuse noxious inhibitory controls were engaged with a forearm ischemia task. Results., Trigeminal pain (self-report ratings) and nociception (blinks) were facilitated by unpleasant pictures and inhibited by pleasant pictures. Emotion induction (as assessed from trend analysis) explained 51% of the variance in trigeminal pain and 25% of the variance in trigeminal nociception. Additionally, forearm ischemia inhibited trigeminal pain but not nociception. The baseline vs ischemia comparison explained 17% of the variance in pain report and 0.1% of the variance in blinks. Supraspinal modulation by emotional controls and diffuse noxious inhibitory controls were uncorrelated. Conclusions., Emotional controls and diffuse noxious inhibitory controls modulated trigeminal pain and emotional controls modulated trigeminal nociception. These procedures can be used to study supraspinal modulation of nociceptive processing in disorders of the trigeminal pain system, including headache. [source] Low and high flow analyses and wavelet application for characterization of the Blue Nile River systemHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 3 2010Assefa Melesse Abstract The low and high flow characteristic of the Blue Nile River (BNR) basin is presented. The study discusses low and high flow, flow duration curve (FDC) and trend analysis of the BNR and its major tributaries. Different probability density functions were fitted to better describe the low and high flows of the BNR and major tributaries in the basin. Wavelet analysis was used in understanding the variance and frequency-time localization and detection of dominant oscillations in rainfall and flow. FDCs were developed, and low flow (below 50% exceedance) and high flow (over 75% exceedance) of the curves were analysed and compared. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite-based maps of monthly changes in gravity converted to water equivalents from 2003 to 2006 for February, May and September showed an increase in the moisture influx in the BNR basin for the month of September, and loss of moisture in February and May. It was also shown that 2004 and 2005 were drier with less moisture influx compared to 2003 and 2006. On the basis of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling and Chi-square tests, Gen. Pareto, Frechet 3P, Log-normal, Log-logistics, Fatigue Life and Phased Bi-Weibull distributions best describe the low and high flows within the BNR basin. This will be beneficial in developing flow hydrographs for similar ungauged watersheds within the BNR basin. The below 50% and above 75% exceedance on the FDC for five major rivers in addition to the BNR showed different characteristics depending on size, land cover, topography and other factors. The low flow frequency analysis of the BNR at Bahir Dar showed 0·55 m3/s as the monthly low flow with recurrence interval of 10 years. The wavelet analysis of the rainfall (at Bahir Dar and basin-wide) and flows at three selected stations shows inter- and intra-annual variability of rainfall and flows at various scales. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Long-term trend analysis for precipitation in Asian Pacific FRIEND river basinsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 18 2005Z. X. Xu Abstract In order to analyse the long-term trend of precipitation in the Asian Pacific FRIEND region, records from 30 river basins to represent the large range of climatic and hydrological characteristics in the study area are selected. The long-term trend in precipitation time series and its association with the southern oscillation index (SOI) series are investigated. Application of the nonparametric Mann,Kendall test for 30 precipitation time series has shown that only four of these 30 time series have a long-term trend at the 5% level of significance. Nevertheless, most of the records tend to decrease over the last several decades. The dataset is further divided geographically into northern, middle, and southern zones, with 20°N and 20°S latitude as the dividing lines. The middle zone has the greatest variation and the southern zone the least variation over the past century. Also, the southern zone has greater variation during the past 30 years. The association between precipitation and SOI is investigated by dividing the precipitation records of each station into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test showed that differences in precipitation for the three classes were most marked in the southern zone of the study area. The frequencies of below- and above-average precipitation for El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods are estimated for the 30 precipitation time series as well. The results show that the frequencies of precipitation under each set of conditions, with lower precipitation generally associated with El Niño periods in the southern zone. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Sediment trend analysis of the hylebos waterway: Implications for liability allocationsINTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2006Patrick McLaren [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||