Tropical Convection (tropical + convection)

Distribution by Scientific Domains


Selected Abstracts


El Niño, climate change, and Southern African climate

ENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 4 2001
Simon J. Mason
Abstract The El Niño phenomenon involves a large-scale warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. Recent developments in the El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have raised concerns about climate change. In this review paper, these recent developments are critically assessed and forecasts of possible future changes are reviewed. Since the late-1970s, El Niño episodes have been unusually recurrent, while the frequency of strong La Niña events has been low. Prolonged/recurrent warm event conditions of the first half of the 1990s were the result of the persistence of an anomalously warm pool near the date line, which, in turn, may be part of an abrupt warming trend in tropical sea-surface temperatures that occurred in the late-1970s. The abrupt warming of tropical sea-surface temperatures has been attributed to the enhanced-greenhouse effect, but may be indicative of inter-decadal variability: earlier changes in the frequency of ENSO events and earlier persistent El Niño and La Niña sequences have occurred. Most forecasts of ENSO variability in a doubled-CO2 climate suggest that the recent changes in the tropical Pacific are anomalous. Of potential concern, however, is a possible reduction in the predictability of ENSO events given a warmer background climate. El Niño events usually are associated with below-normal rainfall over much of southern Africa. Mechanisms for this influence on southern African climate are discussed, and the implications of possible changes in ENSO variability on the climate of the region are assessed. Recent observed changes in southern African climate and their possible relationships with trends in ENSO variability are investigated. The El Niño influence on rainfall over southern Africa occurs largely because of a weakening of tropical convection over the subcontinent. A warming of the Indian Ocean during El Niño events appears to be important in providing a teleconnection from the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The abrupt warming of the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans in the late-1970s is probably partly responsible for increasing air temperatures over southern Africa, and may have contributed to a prolongation of predominantly dry conditions. A return to a wet phase appears to have occurred, despite the persistence of anomalously high sea-surface temperatures associated with the late-1970s warming, and a record-breaking El Niño in 1997/98. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


Statistical correction of central Southwest Asia winter precipitation simulations,

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2003
Michael K. Tippett
Abstract Severe drought is a notable feature of the hydrology of central Southwest (CSW) Asia. Although studies have linked the region's interannual precipitation variability to remote forcings that include East Asia jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection, atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) forced by observed sea-surface temperatures demonstrate little skill in simulating interannual precipitation variability in this region. Here, statistical methods of correcting systematic errors in GCM simulations of CSW Asia precipitation are investigated. Canonical correlation analysis is used to identify model fields related to observed precipitation anomaly patterns. These relationships are then used to predict observed precipitation anomalies. This approach is applied to the ECHAM 4.5 GCM using regional precipitation, upper-level winds and western Pacific tropical precipitation as predictors of observed CSW Asia precipitation anomalies. The statistical corrections improve the GCM precipitation simulations, resulting in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated skill in simulating CSW Asia precipitation anomalies. Applying the procedure to hindcasts with persisted sea-surface temperatures gives lower, but statistically significant, precipitation correlations in the region along the Hindu Kush mountain range. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source]


Patterns of convection in the tropical pacific and their influence on New Zealand weather

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2002
John W. Kidson
Abstract Characteristic patterns of convection in the tropical Pacific Ocean have previously been inferred from analysis of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and associated with year-to-year variations in El Niño (EN),Southern Oscillation events. This study examines both the effects of these convection patterns on the New Zealand climate, and the more general influence of tropical convection on the New Zealand sector of the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere circulation, as a whole, is found to be most strongly influenced by equatorial convection near the Philippines, and in a broad band over the central Pacific. Where increased convection occurs west of 160°E, La Niña-like (LN) conditions prevail. When the anomalous convective activity is located near the dateline, in ,moderate' EN conditions, SW flow prevails over New Zealand. This gives way to stronger WSW anomalies as the centre of convection is displaced further eastwards and a second centre of reduced convection becomes prominent west of the dateline in strong EN (EN+) events. The changes in wind regimes over the New Zealand region implied by the hemispheric 1000 hPa height fields are supported by mean sea-level pressure differences between a number of New Zealand and adjacent island stations. Indices of the zonal flow show a weak reduction in strength of the westerlies for LN OLR composites, and no apparent effects for EN composites, whereas EN+ conditions strongly favour above-normal westerlies. The meridional flow over New Zealand is skewed towards more frequent southerlies in both the EN and EN+ composites, whereas LN conditions favour northerly flow anomalies. A change is also observed in the frequency of New Zealand-area ,weather regimes'. Enhanced convection centred on 5°S and east of the dateline, as found in the EN+ composites, leads to an increase in zonal regimes and a corresponding decrease in blocking regimes. The direct influence of tropical OLR variations on New Zealand temperature and precipitation has also been assessed. These indicate that the response is not simply one of degree. Different spatial anomaly patterns in the climatic elements result from the varying regional circulation patterns, and these need to be considered if present climate-forecasting schemes are to be improved. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. [source]


Propagation mechanisms for the Madden-Julian Oscillation

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 569 2000
Adrian J. Matthews
Abstract The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined using 20-years of outgoing long-wave radiation and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis data. Two mechanisms for the eastward propagation and regeneration of the convective anomalies are suggested. The first is a local mechanism operating over the warm-pool region. At the phase of the MJO with a dipole structure to the convection anomalies, there is enhanced tropical convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and reduced convection over the western Pacific. Over the equatorial western Indian Ocean, the equatorial Rossby wave response to the west of the enhanced convection includes a region of anomalous surface divergence associated with the anomalous surface westerlies and pressure ridge. This lends to suppress ascent in the boundary layer and shuts off the deep convection, eventually leading to a convective anomaly of the opposite sign. Over the Indonesian sector, the equatorial Kelvin wave response to the east of the enhanced convection includes a region of anomalous surface convergence into the anomalous equatorial surface easterlies and pressure trough, which will tend to favour convection in this region. The Indonesian sector is also influenced by an equatorial Rossby wave response (of opposite sign) to the west of die reduced convection over the western Pacific, which also has a region of anomalous surface convergence associated with its anomalous equatorial surface easterlies and pressure trough. Hence, convective anomalies of either sign tend to erode themselves from the west and initiate a convective anomaly of opposite sign via their equatorial Rossby wave response, and expand to the east via their equatorial Kelvin wave response. The second mechanism is global, involving an anomaly completing a circuit of the equator. Enhanced convection over the tropical western Pacific excites a negative mean-sea-level pressure (m.s.l.p.) anomaly which radiates rapidly eastward as a dry equatorial Kelvin wave at approximately 35 m s,1 over the eastern Pacific. It is blocked by the orographic barrier of the Andes and Central America for several days before propagating through the gap at Panama. After rapidly propagating as a dry equatorial Kelvin wave over the Atlantic, the m.s.l.p. anomaly is delayed further by the East African Highlands before it reaches the Indian Ocean and coincides with the development of enhanced convection at the start of the next MJO cycle. [source]