Time-series

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Distribution within Life Sciences

Terms modified by Time-series

  • time-sery analysis
  • time-sery data
  • time-sery methods
  • time-sery models

  • Selected Abstracts


    THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF EXECUTIONS ON HOMICIDES: DETERRENCE, DISPLACEMENT, OR BOTH?,

    CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 4 2009
    KENNETH C. LAND
    Does the death penalty save lives? In recent years, a new round of research has been using annual time-series panel data from the 50 U.S. states for 25 or so years from the 1970s to the late 1990s that claims to find many lives saved through reductions in subsequent homicide rates after executions. This research, in turn, has produced a round of critiques, which concludes that these findings are not robust enough to model even small changes in specifications that yield dramatically different results. A principal reason for this sensitivity of the findings is that few state-years exist (about 1 percent of all state-years) in which six or more executions have occurred. To provide a different perspective, we focus on Texas, a state that has used the death penalty with sufficient frequency to make possible relatively stable estimates of the homicide response to executions. In addition, we narrow the observation intervals for recording executions and homicides from the annual calendar year to monthly intervals. Based on time-series analyses and independent-validation tests, our best-fitting model shows that, from January 1994 through December 2005, evidence exists of modest, short-term reductions in homicides in Texas in the first and fourth months that follow an execution,about 2.5 fewer homicides total. Another model suggests, however, that in addition to homicide reductions, some displacement of homicides may be possible from one month to another in the months after an execution, which reduces the total reduction in homicides after an execution to about .5 during a 12-month period. Implications for additional research and the need for future analysis and replication are discussed. [source]


    Woody plants modulate the temporal dynamics of soil moisture in a semi-arid mesquite savanna,

    ECOHYDROLOGY, Issue 1 2010
    Daniel L. Potts
    Abstract Climate variability and human activities interact to increase the abundance of woody plants in arid and semi-arid ecosystems worldwide. How woody plants interact with rainfall to influence patterns of soil moisture through time, at different depths in the soil profile and between neighboring landscape patches is poorly known. In a semi-arid mesquite savanna, we deployed a paired array of sensors beneath a mesquite canopy and in an adjacent open area to measure volumetric soil water content (,) every 30 min at several depths between 2004 and 2007. In addition, to quantify temporally dynamic variation in soil moisture between the two microsites and across soil depths we analysed , time-series using fast Fourier transforms (FFT). FFT analyses were consistent with the prediction that by reducing evaporative losses through shade and reducing rainfall inputs through canopy interception of small rainfall events, the mesquite canopy was associated with a decline in high-frequency (hour-to-hour and day-to-day) variation in shallow ,. Finally, we found that, in both microsites, high-frequency , variation declined with increasing soil depth as the influence of evaporative losses and inputs associated with smaller rainfall events declined. In this case, we argue that the buffering of shallow soil moisture against high-frequency variations can enhance nutrient cycling and alter the carbon cycle in dryland ecosystems. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    Unusual synchronization of Red Sea fish energy expenditures

    ECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 2 2003
    Lewi Stone
    Abstract The highly gregarious goat fish Parupeneus forskalii found in the Red Sea at Eilat, Israel exhibit highly synchronous swimming and feeding activity. Five fish were studied under controlled conditions and highly resolved time-series of their energy expenditures were measured. All fish demonstrated strong phase synchronization in that their activity levels, although erratic in time and intensity, were collectively coordinated and peaked simultaneously together. The synchronization of these wildly varying, and possibly chaotic signals of energy expenditures, were quantified using phase analysis. We suggest that, ecologically, this collective synchronization is a strategy that increases food-catch. [source]


    The Role of Political Instability in Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Greece

    ECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 3 2000
    Dimitrios Asteriou
    This article examines empirically the relationship between stock market development, political instability and economic growth in Greece. We measure socio-political instability by constructing an index which captures the occurrence of various phenomena of political violence using time-series data. The main advantages of analysing political instability in a case study framework using time-series, in contrast with the widely used cross-country empirical studies, are: (a) a more careful and in-depth examination of institutional and historical characteristics of a particular country; (b) the use of a data set comprised of the most appropriate and highest quality measures; and (c) a more detailed exposition of the dynamic evolution of the economy. The empirical results indicate the existence of a strong negative relationship between uncertain socio-political conditions and the general index of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) and support the theoretical hypothesis that uncertain socio-political conditions affect economic growth negatively, is true for the Greek case. (J.E.L.: G10, G14, O40, C32) [source]


    Synchrony of spontaneous calcium activity in mouse neocortex before synaptogenesis

    EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF NEUROSCIENCE, Issue 4 2007
    Jean-Claude Platel
    Abstract Spontaneous calcium activity can be detected in embryonic mouse cortical slices as fluorescence intensity variations, in the presence of a fluorescent calcium indicator. Current methods to detect and quantify these variations depend heavily on experimenters whose judgement may interfere with measurement. In the present work, we developed new software called CalSignal for automatic detection and tracking of cellular bodies and quantification of spontaneous calcium activity on time-series of confocal fluorescence images. Analysis of 28 neocortical slices revealed that 21.0% of detected cells displayed peaks of fluorescence corresponding to spontaneous activity, with a mean frequency of one peak per 4 min. This activity was blocked in the absence of extracellular calcium but was not modified after depletion of calcium stores with thapsigargin or blockade of voltage-gated calcium channels with Ni2+. Further, statistical analysis of calcium activity revealed concomitant activation of distant cells in 24 slices, and the existence of a significant network of synchrony based on such coactivations in 17 slices out of 28. These networks enclosed 84.3% of active cells, scattered throughout the neocortical wall (mean distance between cellular bodies, 111.7 µm). Finally, it was possible to identify specific cells which were synchronously active with more neighbouring cells than others. The identity of these nodal cells remains to be investigated to fully comprehend the role of spontaneous calcium activity, before synaptogenesis, in shaping cortical neurogenesis. [source]


    Arm trajectory and representation of movement processing in motor cortical activity

    EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF NEUROSCIENCE, Issue 6 2000
    Andrew B. Schwartz
    Abstract We review experiments in which single-cell primary motor cortical activity was recorded from Rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) while they performed reaching and drawing tasks. The directional tuning curves generated during reaching were modulated by the speed of movement and this was reflected in the magnitude of population vectors calculated from firing rates of a large population of cells. Directional and speed representation in the firing rates of these cells is robust across both reaching and drawing. Several behavioural invariants related to the speed of drawing were represented in the time-series of population vectors. This high fidelity neural representation of velocity found in motor cortex can be used to visualize the dynamics of motor cortical activity during drawing and suggests that the cost function governing the rate of drawing is bound by neural processing. [source]


    Modelling the basin-scale demography of Calanus finmarchicus in the north-east Atlantic

    FISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 5 2005
    DOUGLAS C. SPEIRS
    Abstract In this paper, we report on a coupled physical,biological model describing the spatio-temporal distribution of Calanus finmarchicus over an area of the North Atlantic and Norwegian Sea from 56°N, 30°W to 72°N, 20°E. The model, which explicitly represents all the life-history stages, is implemented in a highly efficient discrete space,time format which permits wide-ranging dynamic exploration and parameter optimization. The underlying hydrodynamic driving functions come from the Hamburg Shelf-Ocean Model (HAMSOM). The spatio-temporal distribution of resources powering development and reproduction is inferred from SeaWiFS sea-surface colour observations. We confront the model with distributional data inferred from continuous plankton recorder observations, overwintering distribution data from a variety of EU, UK national and Canadian programmes which were collated as part of the Trans-Atlantic Study of Calanus (TASC) programme, and high-frequency stage-resolved point time-series obtained as part of the TASC programme. We test two competing hypotheses concerning the control of awakening from diapause and conclude that only a mechanism with characteristics similar to photoperiodic control can explain the test data. [source]


    The marine copepod, Pseudocalanus elongatus, as a mediator between climate variability and fisheries in the Central Baltic Sea

    FISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 4-5 2003
    C. Möllmann
    Abstract Pseudocalanus elongatus is a key species in the pelagic zone of the deep basins of the Central Baltic Sea. The copepod serves as a major food organism for larval as well as for adult, pelagic planktivorous fish. Large interannual fluctuations in the standing stock of P. elongatus have been attributed to significant changes in the hydrographic environment over the last two decades. In particular, the decreasing salinity in the Baltic deep basins, a result of a change in atmospheric forcing leading to an increase in rainfall since the 1980s and of a lack of pulses of saline water intrusions from the North Sea, was found to affect reproduction and maturation of the copepod. In parallel, dramatic changes in the weight-at-age of herring, one of the most important commercial fishes of the Baltic Sea, have been observed since the late 1980s. Using time-series on herring stomach contents, as well as length and weight, we provide evidence for a chain of events relating variability in climate, salinity and P. elongatus abundance to changes in diet and condition of herring in the Central Baltic Sea. [source]


    Application of a habitat-based model to estimate effective longline fishing effort and relative abundance of Pacific bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus)

    FISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2002
    Keith A. Bigelow
    A new habitat-based model is developed to improve estimates of relative abundance of Pacific bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus). The model provides estimates of `effective' longline effort and therefore better estimates of catch-per-unit-of-effort (CPUE) by incorporating information on the variation in longline fishing depth and depth of bigeye tuna preferred habitat. The essential elements in the model are: (1) estimation of the depth distribution of the longline gear, using information on gear configuration and ocean currents; (2) estimation of the depth distribution of bigeye tuna, based on habitat preference and oceanographic data; (3) estimation of effective longline effort, using fine-scale Japanese longline fishery data; and (4) aggregation of catch and effective effort over appropriate spatial zones to produce revised time series of CPUE. Model results indicate that effective effort has increased in both the western and central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) and eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). In the WCPO, effective effort increased by 43% from the late 1960s to the late 1980s due primarily to the increased effectiveness of effort (deeper longline sets) rather than to increased nominal effort. Over the same period, effective effort increased 250% in the EPO due primarily to increased nominal effort. Nominal and standardized CPUE indices in the EPO show similar trends , a decline during the 1960s, a period of stability in the 1970s, high values during 1985,1986 and a decline thereafter. In the WCPO, nominal CPUE is stable over the time-series; however, standardized CPUE has declined by ,50%. If estimates of standardized CPUE accurately reflect relative abundance, then we have documented substantial reductions of bigeye tuna abundance for some regions in the Pacific Ocean. A decline in standardized CPUE in the subtropical gyres concurrent with stability in equatorial areas may represent a contraction in the range of the population resulting from a decline in population abundance. The sensitivity of the results to the habitat (temperature and oxygen) assumptions was tested using Monte Carlo simulations. [source]


    Strategic timing of earnings announcements?

    ACCOUNTING & FINANCE, Issue 3 2010
    Cameron Truong
    M40; G14 Abstract Using firm-specific regressions, I show that earnings response coefficient differ across firms. However, there is no evidence of differential earnings response coefficient to a certain earnings announcement time. By switching to a different announcement time from its preferred time, a firm does not gain a softer market reaction. I compare research results from a firm-specific method and from a pooled time-series and cross-sectional method and demonstrate that they differ significantly due to large heterogeneity across firms. I suggest that researchers should adopt a firm-specific approach to avoid misleading results and to achieve improved estimations. [source]


    Trends in water quality and discharge confound long-term warming effects on river macroinvertebrates

    FRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2009
    ISABELLE DURANCE
    Summary 1.,Climate-change effects on rivers and streams might interact with other pressures, such as pollution, but long-term investigations are scarce. We assessed trends among macroinvertebrates in 50 southern English streams in relation to temperature, discharge and water quality over 18 years (1989,2007). 2.,Long-term records, coupled with estimates from inter-site calibrations of 3,4 years, showed that mean stream temperatures in the study area had increased by 2.1,2.9 °C in winter and 1.1,1.5 °C in summer over the 26 year period from 1980 to 2006, with trends in winter strongest. 3.,While invertebrate assemblages in surface-fed streams were constant, those in chalk-streams changed significantly during 1989,2007. Invertebrate trends correlated significantly with temperature, but effects were spurious because (i) assemblages gained taxa typical of faster flow or well-oxygenated conditions, contrary to expectations from warming; (ii) more invertebrate families increased in abundance than declined and (iii) concomitant changes in water quality (e.g. declining orthophosphate, ammonia and biochemical oxygen demand), or at some sites changes in discharge, explained more variation in invertebrate abundance and composition than did temperature. 4.,These patterns were reconfirmed in both group- and site-specific analyses. 5.,We conclude that recent winter-biased warming in southern English chalk-streams has been insufficient to affect invertebrates negatively over a period of improving water quality. This implies that positive management can minimize some climate-change impacts on stream ecosystems. Chalk-stream invertebrates are sensitive, nevertheless, to variations in discharge, and detectable changes could occur if climate change alters flow pattern. 6.,Because climatic trends now characterize many inter-annual time-series, we caution other investigators to examine whether putative effects on ecological systems are real or linked spuriously to other causes of change. [source]


    Undesirable side-effects of water hyacinth control in a shallow tropical reservoir

    FRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2007
    DENISE DE C. BICUDO
    Summary 1. Based on a comprehensive data set collected monthly during 8 years (1997,2004), we evaluated the effects of mechanical removal of Eichhornia crassipes on the limnological characteristics and algal biomass of a polymictic shallow tropical reservoir. 2. Interrupted time series analyses indicated that the limnological responses to macrophyte removal can be classified as an ,abrupt permanent impact' implying that the overall mean of the time-series shifted promptly after intervention. These analyses indicated a significant increase for pH, total phosphorus, total phytoplankton and cyanobacterial biomass, and a decrease in water transparency and CO2 concentrations in the surface water; also, the increase in water stability, increase of bottom soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and decrease in bottom oxygen levels. 3. Cyclic anoxic periods previously observed during springs and summers were replaced by a persistent period of anoxic conditions in the sediment overlying water. Anoxic conditions were suitable for SRP release from sediments. Heavy cyanobacterial blooms became more persistent, maximum biomass (4229 mm3 L,1) was 30 times larger, the blooms frequently reached 2 m and sometimes the bottom of the reservoir, contrasting to the preremoval period in which it reached at most 1 m deep. 4. The long-term P dynamics in the system, initially driven by allochthonous nutrient loadings were replaced by internal ecological processes. Water hyacinth removal markedly accelerated the process of eutrophication due to internal feedback mechanisms, leading to a switch to a more turbid state. Biological feedback mechanisms were driven by cyanobacterial blooms by enhancing water stability, oxygen anoxia at the bottom and by increasing suitable conditions for P internal loading. These data support the hypothesis of the role of cyanobacterial blooms as an important factor impairing water quality and driving the ecosystem towards a stable degraded state. 5. These findings have important implications for the restoration of shallow stratifying eutrophic lakes, as the alternative degraded state is most likely to occur when compared with their non-stratifying counterparts. Moreover, feedback mechanisms in tropical and subtropical shallow lakes seem to be stronger than in temperate ones, as stratification events are more likely to occur over the year, intensifying system resilience to restorative strategies. [source]


    Factors influencing the temporal coherence of five lakes in the English Lake District

    FRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2000
    D. G. George
    1. The lakes in the Windermere catchment are all deep, glacial lakes but they differ in size, shape and general productivity. Here, we examine the extent to which year-to-year variations in the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of these lakes varied synchronously over a 30,40-year period. 2. Coherence was estimated by correlating time-series of the spring, summer, autumn and winter characteristics of five lakes: Esthwaite Water, Blelham Tarn, Grasmere and the North and South Basins of Windermere. Three physical, four chemical and two biological time-series were analysed and related to year-to-year variations in a number of key driving variables. 3. The highest levels of coherence were recorded for the physical and chemical variables where the average coherence was 0.81. The average coherence for the biological variables was 0.11 and there were a number of significant negative relationships. The average coherence between all possible lake pairs was 0.59 and average values ranged from 0.50 to 0.74. A graphical analysis of these results demonstrated that the coherence between individual lake pairs was influenced by the relative size of the basins as well as their trophic status. 4. A series of examples is presented to demonstrate how a small number of driving variables influenced the observed levels of coherence. These range from a simple example where the winter temperature of the lakes was correlated with the climatic index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, to a more complex example where the summer abundance of zooplankton was correlated with wind-mixing. 5. The implications of these findings are discussed and a conceptual model developed to illustrate the principal factors influencing temporal coherence in lake systems. The model suggests that our ability to detect temporal coherence depends on the relative magnitude of three factors: (a) the amplitude of the year-to-year variations; (b) the spatial heterogeneity of the driving variables and (c) the error terms associated with any particular measurement. [source]


    Evaluating local hydrological modelling by temporal gravity observations and a gravimetric three-dimensional model

    GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL, Issue 1 2010
    M. Naujoks
    SUMMARY An approach for the evaluation of local hydrological modelling is presented: the deployment of temporal terrestrial gravity measurements and gravimetric 3-D modelling in addition to hydrological point observations. Of particular interest is to what extent such information can be used to improve the understanding of hydrological process dynamics and to evaluate hydrological models. Because temporal gravity data contain integral information about hydrological mass changes they can be considered as a valuable augmentation to traditional hydrological observations. On the other hand, hydrological effects need to be eliminated from high-quality gravity time-series because they interfere with small geodynamic signals. In areas with hilly topography and/or inhomogeneous subsoil, a simple reduction based on hydrological point measurements is usually not sufficient. For such situations, the underlying hydrological processes in the soil and the disaggregated bedrock need to be considered in their spatial and temporal dynamics to allow the development of a more sophisticated reduction. Regarding these issues interdisciplinary research has been carried out in the surroundings of the Geodynamic Observatory Moxa, Germany. At Moxa, hydrologically induced gravity variations of several 10 nm s,2 are observed by the stationarily operating superconducting gravimeter and by spatially distributed and repeated high-precision measurements with transportable relative instruments. In addition, hydrological parameters are monitored which serve as input for a local hydrological catchment model for the area of about 2 km2 around the observatory. From this model, spatial hydrological variations are gained in hourly time steps and included as density changes of the subsoil in a well-constrained gravimetric 3-D model to derive temporal modelled gravity variations. The gravity variations obtained from this combined modelling correspond very well to the observed hydrological gravity changes for both, short period and seasonal signals. From the modelling the amplitude of the impact on gravity of hydrological changes occurring in different distances to the gravimeter location can be inferred. Possible modifications on the local hydrological model are discussed to further improve the quality of the model. Furthermore, a successful reduction of local hydrological effects in the superconducting gravimeter data is developed. After this reduction global seasonal fluctuations are unmasked which are in correspondence to GRACE observations and to global hydrological models. [source]


    Basis functions for the consistent and accurate representation of surface mass loading

    GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL, Issue 1 2007
    Peter J. Clarke
    SUMMARY Inversion of geodetic site displacement data to infer surface mass loads has previously been demonstrated using a spherical harmonic representation of the load. This method suffers from the continent-rich, ocean-poor distribution of geodetic data, coupled with the predominance of the continental load (water storage and atmospheric pressure) compared with the ocean bottom pressure (including the inverse barometer response). Finer-scale inversion becomes unstable due to the rapidly increasing number of parameters which are poorly constrained by the data geometry. Several approaches have previously been tried to mitigate this, including the adoption of constraints over the oceanic domain derived from ocean circulation models, the use of smoothness constraints for the oceanic load, and the incorporation of GRACE gravity field data. However, these methods do not provide appropriate treatment of mass conservation and of the ocean's equilibrium-tide response to the total gravitational field. Instead, we propose a modified set of basis functions as an alternative to standard spherical harmonics. Our basis functions allow variability of the load over continental regions, but impose global mass conservation and equilibrium tidal behaviour of the oceans. We test our basis functions first for the efficiency of fitting to realistic modelled surface loads, and then for accuracy of the estimates of the inferred load compared with the known model load, using synthetic geodetic displacements with real GPS network geometry. Compared to standard spherical harmonics, our basis functions yield a better fit to the model loads over the period 1997,2005, for an equivalent number of parameters, and provide a more accurate and stable fit using the synthetic geodetic displacements. In particular, recovery of the low-degree coefficients is greatly improved. Using a nine-parameter fit we are able to model 58 per cent of the variance in the synthetic degree-1 zonal coefficient time-series, 38,41 per cent of the degree-1 non-zonal coefficients, and 80 per cent of the degree-2 zonal coefficient. An equivalent spherical harmonic estimate truncated at degree 2 is able to model the degree-1 zonal coefficient similarly (56 per cent of variance), but only models 59 per cent of the degree-2 zonal coefficient variance and is unable to model the degree-1 non-zonal coefficients. [source]


    Post-seismic relaxation following the great 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on a compressible self-gravitating Earth

    GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL, Issue 1 2006
    Fred F. Pollitz
    SUMMARY The Mw, 9.0 2004 December 26 Sumatra-Andaman and Mw= 8.7 2005 March 28 Nias earthquakes, which collectively ruptured approximately 1800 km of the Andaman and Sunda subduction zones, are expected to be followed by vigorous viscoelastic relaxation involving both the upper and lower mantle. Because of these large spatial dimensions it is desirable to fully account for gravitational coupling effects in the relaxation process. We present a stable method of computing relaxation of a spherically-stratified, compressible and self-gravitating viscoelastic Earth following an impulsive moment release event. The solution is cast in terms of a spherical harmonic expansion of viscoelastic normal modes. For simple layered viscoelastic models, which include a low-viscosity oceanic asthenosphere, we predict substantial post-seismic effects over a region several 100s of km wide surrounding the eastern Indian Ocean. We compare observed GPS time-series from ten regional sites (mostly in Thailand and Indonesia), beginning in 2004 December, with synthetic time-series that include the coseismic and post-seismic effects of the 2004 December 26 and 2005 March 28 earthquakes. A viscosity structure involving a biviscous (Burgers body) rheology in the asthenosphere explains the pattern and amplitude of post-seismic offsets remarkably well. [source]


    A semi-analytical estimation of the effect of second-order ionospheric correction on the GPS positioning

    GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL, Issue 1 2005
    H. Munekane
    SUMMARY We developed a semi-analytical method to evaluate the effect of the second-order ionospheric correction on GPS positioning. This method is based on the semi-analytical positioning error simulation method developed by Geiger and Santerre in which, assuming the continuous distribution of the satellites, a normal equation is formed to estimate the positioning error taking all the contributions of the ranging error by the visible satellites into account. Our method successfully reproduced the averaged time-series of three IGS sites which is comparable to the rigorous simulation. We then evaluated the effect of the ionospheric error on the determination of the reference frame. We evaluated the additional Helmert parameters that are required for the ionospheric effect. We found that the ionospheric effect can lead to annual scale changes of 0.1 ppb, with an offset of 1.8 mm and a semi-annual oscillation of 1 mm in the z -direction. However, these values are too small to explain the current deviations between the GPS-derived reference frame and the ITRF reference frame. Next, we estimated the apparent scale changes due to the ionospheric error in the GEONET coordinate time-series in Japan. We could qualitatively reproduce the observed semi-annual scale changes peaking at the equinoxes and having asymmetrical amplitudes between the vernal and autumnal equinoxes. [source]


    Last-century changes of alpine grassland water-use efficiency: a reconstruction through carbon isotope analysis of a time-series of Capra ibex horns

    GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2010
    INÊS C. R. BARBOSA
    Abstract The ecophysiological response of an alpine grassland to recent climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration was investigated with a new strategy to go back in time: using a time-series of Capra ibex horns as archives of the alpine grasslands' carbon isotope discrimination (13,). From the collection of the Natural History Museum of Bern, horns of 24 males from the population of the Augstmatthorn,Brienzer Rothorn mountains, Switzerland, were sampled covering the period from 1938 to 2006. Samples were taken from the beginning of each year-ring of the horns, representing the beginning of the horn growth period, the spring. The horns' carbon 13C content (,13C) declined together with that of atmospheric CO2 over the 69-year period, but 13, increased slightly (+0.4,), though significantly (P<0.05), over the observation period. Estimated intercellular CO2 concentration increased (+56 ,mol mol,1) less than the atmospheric CO2 concentration (+81 ,mol mol,1), so that intrinsic water-use efficiency increased by 17.8% during the 69-year period. However, the atmospheric evaporative demand at the site increased by approximately 0.1 kPa between 1955 and 2006, thus counteracting the improvement of intrinsic water-use efficiency. As a result, instantaneous water-use efficiency did not change. The observed changes in intrinsic water-use efficiency were in the same range as those of trees (as reported by others), indicating that leaf-level control of water-use efficiency of grassland and forests followed the same principles. This is the first reconstruction of the water-use efficiency response of a natural grassland ecosystem to last century CO2 and climatic changes. The results indicate that the alpine grassland community has responded to climate change by improving the physiological control of carbon gain to water loss, following the increases in atmospheric CO2 and evaporative demand. But, effective leaf-level water-use efficiency has remained unchanged. [source]


    Characterizing interannual variations in global fire calendar using data from Earth observing satellites

    GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 9 2005
    César Carmona-Moreno
    Abstract Daily global observations from the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometers on the series of meteorological satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration between 1982 and 1999 were used to generate a new weekly global burnt surface product at a resolution of 8 km. Comparison with independently available information on fire locations and timing suggest that while the time-series cannot yet be used to make accurate and quantitative estimates of global burnt area it does provide a reliable estimate of changes in location and season of burning on the global scale. This time-series was used to characterize fire activity in both northern and southern hemispheres on the basis of average seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Fire seasonality and fire distribution data sets have been combined to provide gridded maps at 0.5° resolution documenting the probability of fire occurring in any given season for any location. A multiannual variogram constructed from 17 years of observations shows good agreement between the spatial,temporal behavior in fire activity and the ,El Niño' Southern Oscillation events, showing highly likely connections between both phenomena. [source]


    Spatial independent component analysis of functional MRI time-series: To what extent do results depend on the algorithm used?

    HUMAN BRAIN MAPPING, Issue 3 2002
    Fabrizio Esposito
    Abstract Independent component analysis (ICA) has been successfully employed to decompose functional MRI (fMRI) time-series into sets of activation maps and associated time-courses. Several ICA algorithms have been proposed in the neural network literature. Applied to fMRI, these algorithms might lead to different spatial or temporal readouts of brain activation. We compared the two ICA algorithms that have been used so far for spatial ICA (sICA) of fMRI time-series: the Infomax (Bell and Sejnowski [1995]: Neural Comput 7:1004,1034) and the Fixed-Point (Hyvärinen [1999]: Adv Neural Inf Proc Syst 10:273,279) algorithms. We evaluated the Infomax- and Fixed Point-based sICA decompositions of simulated motor, and real motor and visual activation fMRI time-series using an ensemble of measures. Log-likelihood (McKeown et al. [1998]: Hum Brain Mapp 6:160,188) was used as a measure of how significantly the estimated independent sources fit the statistical structure of the data; receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and linear correlation analyses were used to evaluate the algorithms' accuracy of estimating the spatial layout and the temporal dynamics of simulated and real activations; cluster sizing calculations and an estimation of a residual gaussian noise term within the components were used to examine the anatomic structure of ICA components and for the assessment of noise reduction capabilities. Whereas both algorithms produced highly accurate results, the Fixed-Point outperformed the Infomax in terms of spatial and temporal accuracy as long as inferential statistics were employed as benchmarks. Conversely, the Infomax sICA was superior in terms of global estimation of the ICA model and noise reduction capabilities. Because of its adaptive nature, the Infomax approach appears to be better suited to investigate activation phenomena that are not predictable or adequately modelled by inferential techniques. Hum. Brain Mapping 16:146,157, 2002. © 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source]


    Assessment of rainfall-runoff models based upon wavelet analysis

    HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 5 2007
    Stuart N. Lane
    Abstract A basic hypothesis is proposed: given that wavelet-based analysis has been used to interpret runoff time-series, it may be extended to evaluation of rainfall-runoff model results. Conventional objective functions make certain assumptions about the data series to which they are applied (e.g. uncorrelated error, homoscedasticity). The difficulty that objective functions have in distinguishing between different realizations of the same model, or different models of the same system, is that they may have contributed in part to the occurrence of model equifinality. Of particular concern is the fact that the error present in a rainfall-runoff model may be time dependent, requiring some form of time localization in both identification of error and derivation of global objective functions. We explore the use of a complex Gaussian (order 2) wavelet to describe: (1) a measured hydrograph; (2) the same hydrograph with different simulated errors introduced; and (3) model predictions of the same hydrograph based upon a modified form of TOPMODEL. The analysis of results was based upon: (a) differences in wavelet power (the wavelet power error) between the measured hydrograph and both the simulated error and modelled hydrographs; and (b) the wavelet phase. Power difference and wavelet phase were used to develop two objective functions, RMSE(power) and RMS(phase), which were shown to distinguish between simulated errors and model predictions with similar values of the commonly adopted Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index. These objective functions suffer because they do not retain time, frequency or time-frequency localization. Consideration of wavelet power spectra and time- and frequency-integrated power spectra shows that the impacts of different types of simulated error can be seen through retention of some localization, especially in relation to when and the scale over which error was manifest. Theoretical objections to the use of wavelet analysis for this type of application are noted, especially in relation to the dependence of findings upon the wavelet chosen. However, it is argued that the benefits of localization and the qualitatively low sensitivity of wavelet power and phase to wavelet choice are sufficient to warrant further exploration of wavelet-based approaches to rainfall-runoff model evaluation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec, Canada)

    HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 1 2007
    Behrouz Ahmadi-Nedushan
    Abstract Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short-term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time-series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second-order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second-order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    Processes governing river water quality identified by principal component analysis

    HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 16 2002
    I. Haag
    Abstract The present study demonstrates the usefulness of principal component analysis in condensing and interpreting multivariate time-series of water quality data. In a case study the water quality system of the lock-regulated part of the River Neckar (Germany) was analysed, with special emphasis on the oxygen budget. Pooled data of ten water quality parameters and discharge, which had been determined at six stations along a 200 km reach of the river between the years 1993 and 1998, were subjected to principal component analysis. The analysis yielded four stable principal components, explaining 72% of the total variance of the 11 parameters. The four components could be interpreted confidently in terms of underlying processes: biological activity, dilution by high discharge, seasonal effects and the influence of wastewater. From analysing the data of single stations separately, these processes were found to be active throughout the complete reach. Considering the oxygen budget of the river, the variance of biological activity, representing the counteracting processes of primary production and microbial degradation, was found to be most important. This principal component explained 79% of the observed variance of oxygen saturation. In contrast, the analysis of a reduced data set from the 1970s showed that oxygen saturation was then dominated by discharge and temperature variations. The findings indicate that the oxygen budget used to be governed directly by the emission of degradable matter, whereas nowadays eutrophication is most important for extreme oxygen concentrations. Therefore, controlling eutrophication has to be the primary goal, in order to mitigate the rare episodes of pronounced oxygen over- and undersaturation in the future. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    The value of environmental modelling languages for building distributed hydrological models

    HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 14 2002
    Derek Karssenberg
    Abstract An evaluation is made of the suitability of programming languages for hydrological modellers to create distributed, process-based hydrological models. Both system programming languages and high-level environmental modelling languages are evaluated based on a list of requirements for the optimal programming language for such models. This is illustrated with a case study, implemented using the PCRaster environmental modelling language to create a distributed, process-based hydrological model based on the concepts of KINEROS-EUROSEM. The main conclusion is that system programming languages are not ideal for hydrologists who are not computer programmers because the level of thinking of these languages is too strongly related to specialized computer science. A higher level environmental modelling language is better in the sense that it operates at the conceptual level of the hydrologist. This is because it contains operators that identify hydrological processes that operate on hydrological entities, such as two-dimensional maps, three-dimensional blocks and time-series. The case study illustrates the advantages of using an environmental modelling language as compared with system programming languages in fulfilling requirements on the level of thinking applied in the language, the reusability of the program code, the lack of technical details in the program, a short model development time and learnability. The study shows that environmental modelling languages are equally good as system programming languages in minimizing programming errors, but are worse in generic application and performance. It is expected that environmental modelling languages will be used in future mainly for development of new models that can be tailored to modelling aims and the field data available. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    Reproduction of temporal scaling by a rectangular pulses rainfall model

    HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 3 2002
    Jonas Olsson
    Abstract The presence of scaling statistical properties in temporal rainfall has been well established in many empirical investigations during the latest decade. These properties have more and more come to be regarded as a fundamental feature of the rainfall process. How to best use the scaling properties for applied modelling remains to be assessed, however, particularly in the case of continuous rainfall time-series. One therefore is forced to use conventional time-series modelling, e.g. based on point process theory, which does not explicitly take scaling into account. In light of this, there is a need to investigate the degree to which point-process models are able to ,unintentionally' reproduce the empirical scaling properties. In the present study, four 25-year series of 20-min rainfall intensities observed in Arno River basin, Italy, were investigated. A Neyman,Scott rectangular pulses (NSRP) model was fitted to these series, so enabling the generation of synthetic time-series suitable for investigation. A multifractal scaling behaviour was found to characterize the raw data within a range of time-scales between approximately 20 min and 1 week. The main features of this behaviour were surprisingly well reproduced in the simulated data, although some differences were observed, particularly at small scales below the typical duration of a rain cell. This suggests the possibility of a combined use of the NSRP model and a scaling approach, in order to extend the NSRP range of applicability for simulation purposes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    Pattern recognition and financial time-series

    INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS IN ACCOUNTING, FINANCE & MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2006
    Dave Elliman
    This paper investigates financial time-series from the perspective of a practitioner in artificial intelligence methods and pattern recognition. It presents results from statistical experiments which suggest that financial markets operate with a measure of inefficiency and predictability. However, identifying the nature of any regularities and patterns presents a difficult challenge to the artificial intelligence community, in that established techniques make assumptions about the underlying process that mostly prove to be invalid for this class of data. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    Winter snow depth variability over northern Eurasia in relation to recent atmospheric circulation changes

    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2007
    V. Popova
    Abstract Mean snow depth time-series for February (1936,2001) over northern Eurasia (incl. Norway, Finland and the former USSR), interpolated into 5 × 5° grid points, are studied using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. First, five statistically significant rotated PCs are correlated to Northern Hemisphere (NH) teleconnection patterns at the 700 hPa height: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Polar-Eurasia (Pol), Pacific-North American (PNA), West Pacific (WP), and Scandinavia (Scand). The impact of the NH circulation modes on snow depth variations is evaluated using the multiple stepwise backward regression (MSBR). Analyses of the snow depth PCs indicate that within the northern Eurasia territory, there are several regions with snow accumulation, respondent to certain circulation modes. PC1 describes low-frequency snow depth variation to the north from 55 to 60°N between the White Sea and the Lena river basin, and is positively correlated with NAO and negatively,with Scand. MSBR shows that in 1951,1974 the leading role in snow depth variability belongs to Scand. After 1975, Scand has passed over the leading role to NAO. Scand and NAO are also responsible for the surface air temperature changes over the northern Eurasia. Snow depth PC1 and wintertime temperature are closely related to each other. PC2 describes quasi-decadal snow depth variability over eastern Europe and is negatively correlated with NAO. For the Baltic and White Sea coasts, Fennoscandia, and the center of the East European plain, decrease of snow accumulation, related to a positive NAO phase, seems to be caused by mild winters. For the southwestern and central regions of eastern Europe, negative snow depth anomalies could also be caused by decrease of precipitation associated with the eastward shift of cyclone tracks related to the positive NAO phase. Two regions, where snow depth variations are described by PC1 and PC2, respectively, reveal the border between the opposite recent tendencies of snow accumulation. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source]


    A systematic review of the use of simulated patients and pharmacy practice research

    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PHARMACY PRACTICE, Issue 2 2006
    Dr. MC Watson MRC fellow
    Objective The use of simulated patients to assess current practice, or to derive outcome measures for pharmacy practice research, has received much attention in recent years. A simulated patient is an individual who is trained to visit a pharmacy to enact a scenario testing specific behaviour of the pharmacist or pharmacy staff. The aim of this study was to provide a definitive review of the use of simulated patients as a methodological tool for pharmacy practice research. Method A systematic review was undertaken to identify all pharmacy practice studies that had used simulated patient methodology. The electronic databases searched to identify relevant studies were MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL. Articles fulfilling all the following criteria were considered for inclusion in the review: primary reports of trials conducted in community pharmacy and drug store settings which used simulated patients to derive outcome measures. The review was not restricted by language or by country. The review was restricted to publications from 1976 to May 2005. Key findings In total, 56 full publications were retrieved for further examination, of which 46 studies were included in the review, including: nine randomised controlled trials, three controlled trials, 30 cross-sectional, two time-series and two ,other' studies. Ten publications were excluded: seven reviews, one laboratory-based study, one telephone survey and one study presented only as an abstract. Conclusions There has been steady growth in the use of simulated patient methodology over the past 30 years. Although simulated patients have received negative attention in the pharmaceutical media, they can be a rigorous and robust method of measuring practice if used appropriately. This review demonstrates the range of activities for which this method can be used, including the assessment of counselling and advice provision, the treatment of minor and major illness, and the assessment of the public health activities of pharmacy and drug store staff. Simulated patient methodology has been used in developing countries to a similar, if not greater extent, than the developed world, demonstrating its versatility and applicability to pharmacy practice research globally. [source]


    An enhanced Markov chain based model for the narrowband LMS channel in built-up areas

    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKING, Issue 2 2005
    F. Perez-Fontán
    Abstract In this paper, a technique to derive the transition probabilities for a Markov chain model for the land mobile satellite (LMS) channel in built-up areas is presented. This technique contributes to improving empirically derived parameters in that it can account for elevation and street orientation effects as well as building density. Physical-statistical or ,virtual city' techniques are used to relate observed edification statistics to signal attenuation statistics. This methodology can also be applied to generating correlated time-series for simultaneous links to a constellation of satellites from the same mobile terminal. The proposed approach also allows the generation of enhanced time-series which take into account diffuse multipath and diffraction effects. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    Incubators of Terror: Do Failed and Failing States Promote Transnational Terrorism?

    INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 3 2008
    James A. Piazza
    A growing body of scholars and policymakers have raised concerns that failed and failing states pose a danger to international security because they produce conditions under which transnational terrorist groups can thrive. This study devises an empirical test of this proposition, along with counter-theories, using simple descriptive statistics and a time-series, cross-national negative binomial analysis of 197 countries from 1973 to 2003. It finds that states plagued by chronic state failures are statistically more likely to host terrorist groups that commit transnational attacks, have their nationals commit transnational attacks, and are more likely to be targeted by transnational terrorists themselves. [source]