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Term Spread (term + spread)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting100%

Selected Abstracts

Economic Sentiment and Yield Spreads in Europe

EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2008
Eva Ferreira
G12; E43 Abstract According toHarvey (1988), the forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is due to the fact that interest rates reflect investors' expectations about the future economic situation when deciding their plans for consumption and investment. Past literature has used ex post data on output or consumption growth as proxies for their expected value. In this paper, we employ a direct measure of economic agents' expectations, the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission, to test this hypothesis. Our results indicate that a linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7\% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. This ability of yield spreads to capture economic agent expectations may be the actual reason for the predictive power of yield spreads about future business cycle. [source]

The dynamic relationship between the euro overnight rate, the ECB's policy rate and the term spread

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2007
Dieter Nautz
Abstract This paper investigates how the dynamic adjustment of the European overnight rate Eonia to the term spread and the European Central Bank's (ECB's) policy rate is affected by rate expectations and the operational framework of the ECB. In line with recent evidence found for the US and Japan, the reaction of the Eonia to the term spread is non-symmetric. Moreover, the response of the Eonia to the policy rate depends on both, the repo auction format and the position of the Eonia in the ECB's interest rate corridor. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

A monetary real-time conditional forecast of euro area inflation,

JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 4 2010
Sylvia Kaufmann
Abstract Based on a vector error correction model we produce conditional euro area inflation forecasts. We use real-time data on M3 and HICP, and include real GPD, the 3-month EURIBOR and the 10-year government bond yield as control variables. Real money growth and the term spread enter the system as stationary linear combinations. Missing and outlying values are substituted by model-based estimates using all available data information. In general, the conditional inflation forecasts are consistent with the European Central Bank's assessment of liquidity conditions for future inflation prospects. The evaluation of inflation forecasts under different monetary scenarios reveals the importance of keeping track of money growth rate in particular at the end of 2005. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]