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Baseline Scenario (baseline + scenario)
Selected AbstractsThe costs and benefits of lifelong learning: The case of the NetherlandsHUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY, Issue 2 2002Marko J. van Leeuwen This article deals with costs and benefits related to on-the-job training. For calculating costs and benefits of on-the-job training at the sector and macroeconomic levels, a model is developed. Model parameters are estimated using information from a survey of employers and employees in the Netherlands. Exogenous model variables are taken from the survey as well as from several official statistical sources. The model is used for running a baseline scenario and several policy scenarios. The policy scenarios describe proposed policy measures for stimulating lifelong learning in the Netherlands. The model calculates detailed costs and benefits for players in the market for on-the-job training and the macroeconomic consequences. It is shown that the differences in cost-effectiveness of policy measures can be large. Another important conclusion is that the results may differ strongly among employers, employees, and the government. [source] Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions aimed at preventing medication error at hospital admission (medicines reconciliation)JOURNAL OF EVALUATION IN CLINICAL PRACTICE, Issue 2 2009Jonathan Karnon MSc PhD Abstract Rationale, Medication errors can lead to preventable adverse drug events (pADEs) that have significant cost and health implications. Errors often occur at care interfaces, and various interventions have been devised to reduce medication errors at the point of admission to hospital. The aim of this study is to assess the incremental costs and effects [measured as quality adjusted life years (QALYs)] of a range of such interventions for which evidence of effectiveness exists. Methods, A previously published medication errors model was adapted to describe the pathway of errors occurring at admission through to the occurrence of pADEs. The baseline model was populated using literature-based values, and then calibrated to observed outputs. Evidence of effects was derived from a systematic review of interventions aimed at preventing medication error at hospital admission. Results, All five interventions, for which evidence of effectiveness was identified, are estimated to be extremely cost-effective when compared with the baseline scenario. Pharmacist-led reconciliation intervention has the highest expected net benefits, and a probability of being cost-effective of over 60% by a QALY value of £10 000. Conclusions, The medication errors model provides reasonably strong evidence that some form of intervention to improve medicines reconciliation is a cost-effective use of NHS resources. The variation in the reported effectiveness of the few identified studies of medication error interventions illustrates the need for extreme attention to detail in the development of interventions, but also in their evaluation and may justify the primary evaluation of more than one specification of included interventions. [source] Structural adjustment and soil degradation in Tanzania A CGE model approach with endogenous soil productivityAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2001Henrik Wiig CGE model; Soil degradation; Economic growth; Structural adjustment Abstract In this paper, a model of the nitrogen cycle in the soil is incorporated in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Tanzanian economy, thus establishing a two-way link between the environment and the economy. For a given level of natural soil productivity, profit-maximising farmers choose input levels , and hence production volumes , which in turn influence soil productivity in the following years through the recycling of nitrogen from the residues of roots and stover and the degree of erosion. The model is used to simulate the effects of typical structural adjustment policies like a reduction in agro-chemicals' subsidies, reduced implicit export tax rate etc. After 10 years, the result of a joint implementation is a 9% higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP) level compared to the baseline scenario. The effect of soil degradation is found to represent a reduction in the GDP level of more than 5% for the same time period. [source] Transportation demand for petroleum products in Indonesia: a time series analysisOPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 2 2009Suleiman Sa'ad This paper used annual time series data for the period 1973 to 2007 in two econometric techniques [the structural time series model (STSM) and unrestricted error correction model (UECM)] developed to estimate petroleum products (gasoline and diesel) and demand functions for the transportation sector of Indonesia and make a forecast of per capita consumption of the total products until the year 2030 under three scenarios. The results from both models revealed that the demand for petroleum products are price inelastic, with an estimated long-run price elasticity of ,0.19 in the STSM and ,0.16 in the UECM. However, total petroleum is income elastic in the long run with a long-run income elasticity of 0.97 under the STSM and 0.88 in the UECM. The estimated demand functions are used to construct a projection of future transportation demand for petroleum products until 2030 under three alternative scenarios: business as usual, low case scenario and high case scenario. The results of this exercise suggests that by 2030, the demand for total petroleum products per capita for Indonesia will increase to about 0.498 toe in the STSM and 0.476 toe in the UECM under the baseline scenario, 0.197 toe in the STSM and 0.186 toe in the UECM under low case scenario and finally, 0.976 toe in the STSM and 0.886 toe under high case scenario. [source] Industrial energy policy: a case study of demand in KuwaitOPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 2 2006M. Nagy Eltony The purpose behind building the industrial energy demand model was to enable assessment of the impact of potential policy options and to forecast future energy demand under various assumptions, including the impact of the possible removal of energy subsidies in accordance with the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement. The results of the model, based on three scenarios, underline several important issues: With nominal energy prices staying the same (the status quo) and with inflation and economic growth continuing to expand (i.e. baseline scenario), it is expected that industrial demand will grow. In this sector, energy consumption is projected to grow at an annual growth rate of about 3.5 per cent throughout the forecast period. In the moderate scenario, however, this drops to 1.9 per cent and when all energy subsidies are removed as in the case of the extreme scenario, the energy consumption is projected to grow by only 1.5 per cent annually throughout the same period. Moreover, with regards to inter-fuel substitution, the model forecast indicates that electricity and natural gas consumption will decline, while the consumption of oil products will increase in all scenarios. The results of the model also indicate that the changing price structure of energy resources should be done in a comprehensive manner. In other words, electricity prices should be adjusted upwards instantly with the adjustment of oil products' prices and natural gas otherwise, a massive inter-fuel substitution will occur within the various consuming industries. [source] Generational Accounting in the UKTHE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 467 2000Roberto Cardarelli This paper presents the first set of generational accounts for the United Kingdom. We find that under our baseline scenario, in which pensions are price indexed and health expenditure grows modestly, the imbalance in UK generational policy is small when compared with other leading industrial countries like the United States, Japan, and Germany. However, under an alternative policy scenario, where all social benefits are wage-indexed and health care spending is increased, there is a larger fiscal bill left for future generations to pay. In this case, achieving generational balance would require much stronger medicine. [source] Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment ModelASIAN ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW, Issue 1 2010Dominique VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE D31; D58; O53; Q54 This study outlines potential futures for the global economy through the 2050 with a specific focus on the countries of Asia. With underlying assumptions about population and output growth, a baseline scenario assesses the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the ensuing impacts on the climate. Under the baseline scenario, Asia's high growth leads to a strong rotation in global output and emissions by the year 2050. The analytical framework traces back the changes in temperature to economic damages , limited to the agricultural sectors. Parts of Asia are likely to see much higher dependence on food imports as a consequence of these damages. Various carbon tax scenarios are implemented to assess the potential for reducing carbon emissions. Because of the structure of their economies, Asian countries are likely to bear the greatest burden in reducing emissions in an efficient global tax scheme, but there is significant scope to ease this burden through financial transfers. [source] | ||||||||||