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Synoptic Situation (synoptic + situation)
Selected AbstractsMonitoring the observation impact on the short-range forecastTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 638 2009Carla Cardinali Abstract This paper describes the use of forecast sensitivity to observations as a diagnostic tool to monitor the observation impact on the 24-hour forecast range. In particular, the forecast error is provided by the control experiments (using all observations available) of two sets of observing system experiments performed at ECMWF, a month in summer 2006 and a month in winter 2007, respectively. In such a way, the observation data impact obtained with the forecast sensitivity is compared with the observing system experiment's data impact; differences and similarities are highlighted. Globally, the assimilated observations decrease the forecast error; locally, some poor performances are detected that are related either to the data quality or to the suboptimality of the data assimilation system. It is also found that the synoptic situation can affect the measurements or can produce areas of large field variability that the assimilation system cannot model correctly. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Simultaneous Atlantic,Pacific blocking and the Northern Annular ModeTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 636 2008Tim Woollings Abstract A synoptic situation termed ,high-latitude blocking' (HLB) is shown to occur frequently in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, and to result in flow anomalies very similar to those associated with the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) in the respective sector. There is a weak but significant link between the occurrence of HLB in the two sectors, with Atlantic HLB tending to lead Pacific HLB by 1,3 days. This link arises from rare events in which both sectors are almost simultaneously affected by a large-scale wave-breaking event which distorts the polar trough over Northern Canada. In several cases the tropospheric wave-breaking occurs in tandem with a large-scale disturbance of the stratospheric polar vortex. There is, therefore, a physical link between the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, but analysis suggests that this does not contribute to determining the pattern of the NAM, as conventionally defined from monthly mean data. However, an alternative version of the NAM, derived directly from daily data, does appear to reflect this physical link. These conflicting results highlight the sensitivity of the NAM to the period over which data are averaged. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact Experiment (ADRIEX) overviewTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue S1 2007E. J. Highwood Abstract The Aerosol Direct Radiative Experiment (ADRIEX) took place over the Adriatic and Black Seas during August and September 2004 with the aim of characterizing anthropogenic aerosol in these regions in terms of its physical and optical properties and establishing its impact on radiative balance. Eight successful flights of the UK BAE-146 Facility for Atmospheric Airborne Measurements were completed together with surface-based lidar and AERONET measurements, in conjunction with satellite overpasses. This paper outlines the motivation for the campaign, the methodology and instruments used, describes the synoptic situation and provides an overview of the key results. ADRIEX successfully measured a range of aerosol conditions across the northern Adriatic, Po Valley and Black Sea. Generally two layers of aerosol were found in the vertical: in the flights over the Black Sea and the Po Valley these showed differences in chemical and microphysical properties, whilst over the Adriatic the layers were often more similar. Nitrate aerosol was found to be important in the Po Valley region. The use of new instruments to measure the aerosol chemistry and mixing state and to use this information in determining optical properties is demonstrated. These results are described in much more detail in the subsequent papers of this special issue. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Observational relationships between summer and winter monsoons over East Asia.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2005Part I: Basic framework Abstract This paper is the first of a two-part study to investigate the possible relationships between summer and winter monsoons over East Asia during the period 1958 to 1999. It documents the approach employed in the study. Assuming the existence of relationships, the central theme of the study is to answer the questions: Is there evidence for the relationships and, if so, what are the relationships? In particular, the approach used to interpret the available evidence to make inferences about the conditions of the summer monsoon is described. Six winter monsoon categories are defined in terms of the monsoon strength and the conditions of the El Niño,southern oscillation. The conditions of the summer monsoons preceding and following each winter monsoon category are assessed to identify the possible summer-to-winter monsoon and winter-to-summer monsoon relationships respectively. Summer monsoons are classified into unlikely strong (notS) or unlikely weak (notW) according to the bias in the relative occurrence of positive and negative anomalies of several summer monsoon indices. The rainfall condition over China and the characteristics of the subtropical high are also used to provide supplementary evidence for the summer monsoon strength and to describe the accompanying synoptic situations. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] The influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on the surface energy balance of the King George Island ice capINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2001Matthias Braun Abstract During the austral summer 1997,1998 three automatic weather stations were operated at different altitudes on the sub-Antarctic ice cap of King George Island (South Shetland Islands). Snowmelt was derived from energy balance computations. Turbulent heat fluxes were calculated from meteorological measurements using the bulk aerodynamic approach, with net radiation being measured directly. Modelled ablation rates were compared with readings at ablation stakes and continuously measured snow height at a reference site. Snow depletion and daily snowmelt cycles could be well reproduced by the model. Generally, radiation balance provided the major energy input for snowmelt at all altitudes, whereas sensible heat flux was a second heat source only in lower elevations. The average latent heat flux was negligible over the entire measuring period. A strong altitudinal gradient of available energy for snowmelt was observed. Sensible heat flux as well as latent heat flux decreased with altitude. The measurements showed a strong dependence of surface energy fluxes and ablation rates on large-scale atmospheric conditions. Synoptic weather situations were analysed based on AVH RR infrared quicklook composite images and surface pressure charts. Maximum melt rates of up to 20 mm per day were recorded during a northwesterly advection event with meridional air mass transport. During this northwesterly advection, the contribution of turbulent heat fluxes to the energy available for snowmelt exceeded that of the radiation balance. For easterly and southerly flows, continentally toned, cold dry air masses dominated surface energy balance terms and did not significantly contribute to ablation. The link between synoptic situations and ablation is especially valuable, as observed climatic changes along the Antarctic Peninsula are attributed to changes in the atmospheric circulation. Therefore, the combination of energy balance calculations and the analysis of synoptic-scale weather patterns could improve the prediction of ablation rates for climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Synoptic features associated with critical water level rises in the Río de la PlataMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 2 2005A. P. Alessandro This study aims to describe the synoptic features that caused the water level in the Río de la Plata estuary to rise above critical levels between December 1989 and December 1998. Floods in the estuary can seriously affect the land beside the river from Punta Indio (35.22°S,57.17°W) to the Paraná delta, including the lowlands of Buenos Aires City. Surface pressure patterns associated with floods in the Río de la Plata estuary were obtained by using Quartimax rotated T-mode Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of 1000 hPa geopotential heights. The PCA patterns and 1000 hPa composite and anomaly fields show two main causes for overflows in the Río de la Plata estuary. First, the presence of a surface anticyclone, located south of Buenos Aires province and over northern Patagonia; and, second, cyclogenesis over northeastern Argentina or over Uruguay. The two synoptic features are often present simultaneously. Two representative points were selected in the area under study: one over the continent at the Aeroparque meteorological station (34.34°S,58.25°W) and another over the ocean between 36°S,56°W and 36°S,50°W. Predominant 1000 hPa wind directions associated with overflows were SE at the former location and SSW at the latter. Based on the analysis of the obtained fields, the relationship between the estuary overflow and blocking situations and/or positive pressure anomalies over southern South America and adjacent seas was studied. The zonal circulation index (I), used to detect blocking actions, was found to be useful for identifying synoptic situations related to the estuary swelling. The probability of water level rises in the Río de la Plata with a blocking or I > 0 at 70°W is 0.48, 0.72, 0.78 and 0.73, for summer, autumn, winter and spring, respectively. When I > 0 is observed over the Atlantic at 40°W the probability of flooding is 0.16 for the whole year, but it decreases to 0.028 in autumn, winter and spring. These results and weather charts from different numerical prediction models show that alerts of possible Río de la Plata estuary overflow can be released five days in advance. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | ||||||||||