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Spatial Trends (spatial + trend)
Selected AbstractsEvaluation of reduced rank semiparametric models to assess excess of risk in cluster analysisENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 4 2009Marco Geraci Abstract The existence of multiple environmental hazards is obviously a threat to human health and, from a statistical point of view, the modeling and the detection of disease clusters potentially related to those hazards offer challenging tasks. In this paper, we consider low rank thin plate spline (TPS) models within a semiparametric approach to focused clustering for small area health data. Both the distance from a putative source and a general, unspecified clustering process are modeled in the same fashion and they are entered log-additively in mixed Poisson-Normal models. Some issues related to the identification of the random effects arising from this approach are investigated. Under different simulated scenarios, we evaluate the proposed models using conditional Akaike's weights and tests for variance components, providing a comprehensive model selection methodology easy to implement. We examine observations of lung cancer deaths taken in Ohio between 1987 and 1988. These data were analyzed on several occasions to investigate the risk associated with a putative source in Hamilton county. In our analysis, we found a strong south-eastward spatial trend which is confounded with a significant radial distance effect decreasing between 0 and 150 km from the point source. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Residual analysis for spatial point processes (with discussion)JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY: SERIES B (STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY), Issue 5 2005A. Baddeley Summary., We define residuals for point process models fitted to spatial point pattern data, and we propose diagnostic plots based on them. The residuals apply to any point process model that has a conditional intensity; the model may exhibit spatial heterogeneity, interpoint interaction and dependence on spatial covariates. Some existing ad hoc methods for model checking (quadrat counts, scan statistic, kernel smoothed intensity and Berman's diagnostic) are recovered as special cases. Diagnostic tools are developed systematically, by using an analogy between our spatial residuals and the usual residuals for (non-spatial) generalized linear models. The conditional intensity , plays the role of the mean response. This makes it possible to adapt existing knowledge about model validation for generalized linear models to the spatial point process context, giving recommendations for diagnostic plots. A plot of smoothed residuals against spatial location, or against a spatial covariate, is effective in diagnosing spatial trend or co-variate effects. Q,Q -plots of the residuals are effective in diagnosing interpoint interaction. [source] Structure and distribution of the benthic macrofauna on a Northwest African sandy beach close to a freshwater river dischargeMARINE ECOLOGY, Issue 2008Abdellatif Chaouti Abstract The effects of the freshwater discharge of the Oued Sebou River on the macroinfauna, was studied on the sandy beach of Mehdia through the analysis of the abiotic parameters and of the macrozoobenthos. In autumn 2002 and spring 2003, three beach sites, each with two transects, localized at 50, 3500 and 5720 m from the river mouth respectively, were studied. Positive correlations were recorded for beach slope and pH whereas negative ones were obtained for organic matter content and salinity at increasing distances from the river mouth. Significant differences between beach sites and seasons occurred for median grain size, organic matter content and pH. For each beach site, mean macroinfauna abundance varied between 30 and 100 ind.·m,2 and in spring there was a significant correlation between this parameter and the increasing distance from the river mouth. No significant correlation was instead found between species richness and the increasing distance, although the farthest beach site from the mouth had the highest number of species during both seasons. The results indicated the importance of organic matter content and salinity for the macrofaunal abundance whereas the diversity indices were more affected by beach slope and grain size. The results showed that there was no clear spatial trend in compound indices of the macrofauna across the sampled sites and the influence of the river discharge of Sebou River did not seem to be significant and consistent on the macrobenthos of this mesotidal shore. Comparison with microtidal shores revealed the influence of the tidal excursion and swell characteristics on the response of the benthic structures of sandy beaches to discharges of freshwater. [source] Analysis of pattern precision shows that Drosophila segmentation develops substantial independence from gradients of maternal gene productsDEVELOPMENTAL DYNAMICS, Issue 11 2006David M. Holloway Abstract We analyze the relation between maternal gradients and segmentation in Drosophila, by quantifying spatial precision in protein patterns. Segmentation is first seen in the striped expression patterns of the pair-rule genes, such as even-skipped (eve). We compare positional precision between Eve and the maternal gradients of Bicoid (Bcd) and Caudal (Cad) proteins, showing that Eve position could be initially specified by the maternal protein concentrations but that these do not have the precision to specify the mature striped pattern of Eve. By using spatial trends, we avoid possible complications in measuring single boundary precision (e.g., gap gene patterns) and can follow how precision changes in time. During nuclear cleavage cycles 13 and 14, we find that Eve becomes increasingly correlated with egg length, whereas Bcd does not. This finding suggests that the change in precision is part of a separation of segmentation from an absolute spatial measure, established by the maternal gradients, to one precise in relative (percent egg length) units. Developmental Dynamics 235:2949,2960, 2006. © 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] A one-dimensional model for simulating armouring and erosion on hillslopes: 2.EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 10 2007Long term erosion, armouring predictions for two contrasting mine spoils Abstract This paper investigates the dynamics of soil armouring as a result of fluvial erosion for a non-cohesive sandy gravel spoil from the Ranger Mine, Australia, and a cohesive silt loam spoil from the Northparkes Mine, Australia, using a model for hillslope soil armouring. These long term predictions concentrate on the temporal and spatial changes of the spoil grading and erosion over 100,200 years for the flat cap regions (1,2%) and steep batter edges (10,30%) typically encountered on waste rock dumps. The existence of a significant rock fragment fraction in the Ranger spoil means that it armours readily, while Northparkes does not. For Ranger the waste rock showed reductions in (1) cumulative erosion of up to 81% from that obtained by extrapolating the initial erosion rate out 100 years and (2) the erosion/year by more than 10-fold. For Northparkes reductions were less marked, with the maximum reduction in erosion/year being 37% after 200 years. For Ranger the reductions were greatest and fastest for intermediate gradient hillslopes. For the steepest hillslopes the armouring decreased because the flow shear stresses were large enough to mobilize all material in the armour layer. Model uncertainty was assessed with probabilistic confidence limits demonstrating that these erodibility reductions were statistically significant. A commonly used hillslope erosion model (sediment flux = ,1 discharge m1 slope n1) was fitted to these predictions. The erodibility, ,1, and m1 decreased with time, which was consistent with our physical intuition about armouring. At Ranger the parameter m1 asymptoted to 1·5,1·6 while at Northparkes it asymptoted to 1·2,1·3. At Ranger transient spatial trends in armouring led to a short term (50,200 years in the future) reduction in n1, to below zero under certain circumstances, recovering to an asymptote of about 0·5,1. At Northparkes n1 asymptoted to about 0·6, with no negative transients predicted. The m1 and n1 parameters predicted for Ranger were shown to be consistent with field data from a 10-year-old armoured hillslope and consistent with published relationships between erodibility and rock content for natural hillslopes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Functional biodiversity of macroinvertebrate assemblages along major ecological gradients of boreal headwater streamsFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 9 2005JANI HEINOArticle first published online: 3 AUG 200 Summary 1. Biodiversity,environment relationships are increasingly well-understood in the context of species richness and species composition, whereas other aspects of biodiversity, including variability in functional diversity (FD), have received rather little rigorous attention. For streams, most studies to date have examined either taxonomic assemblage patterns or have experimentally addressed the importance of species richness for ecosystem functioning. 2. I examined the relationships of the functional biodiversity of stream macroinvertebrates to major environmental and spatial gradients across 111 boreal headwater streams in Finland. Functional biodiversity encompassed functional richness (FR , the number of functional groups derived from a combination of functional feeding groups and habit trait groups), FD , the number of functional groups and division of individuals among these groups, and functional evenness (FE , the division of individuals among functional groups). Furthermore, functional structure (FS) comprised the composition and abundance of functional groups at each site. 3. FR increased with increasing pH, with additional variation related to moss cover, total nitrogen, water colour and substratum particle size. FD similarly increased with increasing pH and decreased with increasing canopy cover. FE decreased with increasing canopy cover and water colour. Significant variation in FS was attributable to pH, stream width, moss cover, substratum particle size, nitrogen, water colour with the dominant pattern in FS being related to the increase of shredder-sprawlers and the decrease of scraper-swimmers in acidic conditions. 4. In regression analysis and redundancy analysis, variation in functional biodiversity was not only related to local environmental factors, but a considerable proportion of variability was also attributable to spatial patterning of environmental variables and pure spatial gradients. For FR, 23.4% was related to pure environmental effects, 15.0% to shared environmental and spatial effects and 8.0% to spatial trends. For FD, 13.8% was attributable to environmental effects, 15.2% to shared environmental and spatial effects and 5% to spatial trends. For FE, 9.0% was related to environmental variables, 12.7% to shared effects of environmental and spatial variables and 4.5% to spatial variables. For FS, 13.5% was related to environmental effects, 16.9% to shared environmental and spatial effects and 15.4% to spatial trends. 5. Given that functional biodiversity should portray variability in ecosystem functioning, one might expect to find functionally rather differing ecosystems at the opposite ends of major environmental gradients (e.g. acidity, stream size). However, the degree to which variation in the functional biodiversity of stream macroinvertebrates truly portrays variability in ecosystem functioning is difficult to judge because species traits, such as feeding roles and habit traits, are themselves strongly affected by the habitat template. 6. If functional characteristics show strong responses to natural environmental gradients, they also are likely to do so to anthropogenic environmental changes, including changes in habitat structure, organic inputs and acidifying elements. However, given the considerable degree of spatial structure in functional biodiversity, one should not expect that only the local environment and anthropogenic changes therein are responsible for this variability. Rather, the spatial context, as well as natural variability along environmental gradients, should also be explicitly considered in applied research. [source] Trends in aquatic macrophyte species turnover in Northern Ireland , which factors determine the spatial distribution of local species turnover?GLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2004Einar Heegaard ABSTRACT Aim, The study examined qualitative predictions of ecological theories in relation to the spatial distribution of species turnover of aquatic macrophytes, through the following parameters: (1) distance between lakes (2) chemical conditions of the lakes (3) chemical differences between the lakes, and (4) the lake size. Location, 562 lakes dispersed throughout Northern Ireland were analysed. Methods, To obtain species turnover estimates independent of richness, the average distance between focal lakes and their five nearest neighbours in ordination space (DCA) was standardized by the species richness in a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The relationships between species turnover and ecological (chemical condition, chemical difference, distance between lakes, and lake-size) and geographical parameters (latitude, longitude, and altitude) were analysed using GAM. Results, The results indicate that the pattern in species turnover is a combination of the chemical conditions and the distance between the lakes, including the interaction term. The effects of chemical heterogeneity and lake size parameters were both positive but weak. In general, increased distance and decreased ionic concentration contribute to increased turnover. The influence of distance on species turnover is strongest at low and high altitude, and at mid-elevation the species turnover is mainly driven by the chemical conditions. Towards the north there is an increasing influence of distance, whereas in the south the chemical conditions have their strongest influence. Conclusions, There is a need for components from several established ecological theories to explain the spatial trends in species turnover within Northern Ireland. Central theories in this particular study are the population/metapopulation dynamics, the continuum concept, and the species-pool concept. [source] The impact of cattle ranching on large-scale vegetation patterns in a coastal savanna in TanzaniaJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2003M. W. Tobler Summary 1The success of large-scale cattle ranching in African savanna vegetation has often been limited by problems of bush encroachment and disease (in particular trypanosomiasis spread by tsetse flies). Mkwaja Ranch, occupying an area of 462 km2 on the coast of Tanzania, is a recent example of a large ranching enterprise that failed within the savanna environment. It was closed in 2000 after 48 years of operation. In this paper we describe the main vegetation types of the area (excluding closed forest vegetation) and relate their patterns of distribution to the former use of the ranch for cattle. 2The study area comprised the former ranch and parts of the adjacent Saadani Game Reserve, which had not been grazed by cattle for many years and had never been used for large-scale ranching. Following field surveys, 15 distinct types of grassland and bush vegetation were defined and a vegetation map was created using a Landsat TM satellite image. A multispectral classification using the maximum likelihood algorithm gave good results and enabled all 15 vegetation types to be distinguished on the map. 3Two main spatial trends were detected in the vegetation. One was a large-scale decrease in the cover of bushland from the most intensively used parts of the ranch through more extensively used areas to the game reserve; this trend was attributed to differences in management history as well as to climatic and topographic factors. A second trend was a radial vegetation pattern associated with the enclosures where cattle were herded at night. High amounts of three bushland types [dominated by (i) Acacia zanzibarica, (ii) Dichrostachys cinerea, Acacia nilotica or Acacia mellifera and (iii) Terminalia spinosa] occurred in a zone between 300 and 2500 m from the paddocks, with a peak in bush density at about 900 m (mean value for 18 paddocks). In contrast, bushland dominated by Hyphaene compressa was scarce close to the paddocks and became more abundant with distance. There was also a radial trend in the grassland communities: close to the paddocks there was short grass vegetation containing many ruderals and invasive weedy species, while the tall grassland types with species such as Hyperthelia dissoluta and Cymbopogon caesius occurred further away in the areas less affected by cattle. 4Synthesis and applications. The intensive modern livestock ranching as practised on Mkwaja Ranch proved to be unsustainable both economically and ecologically. In the end, the biggest problem faced by the ranch managers was not controlling disease, as had originally been feared, but preventing the spread of bush on pasture land. The results of our study demonstrate just how severe the problem of bush encroachment was, especially in areas close to paddocks. An important lesson for management is that grazing patterns need to be taken into consideration when determining the sustainable stocking rate for an area. To reduce the risk of bush encroachment in grazing systems with focal points such as paddocks or watering points, stocking rates need to be lower than in systems with a more uniform grazing distribution. [source] Predicting the distribution of four species of raptors (Aves: Accipitridae) in southern Spain: statistical models work better than existing mapsJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2004Javier Bustamante Abstract Aim, To test the effectiveness of statistical models based on explanatory environmental variables vs. existing distribution information (maps and breeding atlas), for predicting the distribution of four species of raptors (family Accipitridae): common buzzard Buteo buteo (Linnaeus, 1758), short-toed eagle Circaetus gallicus (Gmelin, 1788), booted eagle Hieraaetus pennatus (Gmelin, 1788) and black kite Milvus migrans (Boddaert, 1783). Location, Andalusia, southern Spain. Methods, Generalized linear models of 10 × 10 km squares surveyed for the presence/absence of the species by road census. Statistical models use as predictors variables derived from topography, vegetation and land-use, and the geographical coordinates (to take account of possible spatial trends). Predictions from the models are compared with current distribution maps from the national breeding atlas and leading reference works. Results, The maps derived from statistical models for all four species were more predictive than the previously published range maps and the recent national breeding atlas. The best models incorporated both topographic and vegetation and land-use variables. Further, in three of the four species the inclusion of spatial coordinates to account for neighbourhood effects improved these models. Models for the common buzzard and black kite were highly predictive and easy to interpret from an ecological point of view, while models for short-toed eagle and, particularly, booted eagle were not so easy to interpret, but still predicted better than previous distribution information. Main conclusions, It is possible to build accurate predictive models for raptor distribution with a limited field survey using as predictors environmental variables derived from digital maps. These models integrated in a geographical information system produced distribution maps that were more accurate than previously published ones for the study species in the study area. Our study is an example of a methodology that could be used for many taxa and areas to improve unreliable distribution information. [source] Development of the pharyngeal arch skeleton in Catostomus commersonii (Teleostei: Cypriniformes)JOURNAL OF MORPHOLOGY, Issue 3 2009Jeffrey M. Engeman Abstract Skeletal elements of the gill arches of adult cypriniform fishes vary widely in number, size, and shape and are important characters in morphologically based phylogenetic studies. Understanding the developmental basis for this variation is thus phylogenetically significant but also important in relation to the many developmental genetic and molecularly based studies of the early developing and hence experimentally tractable gill arches in the zebrafish, a cyprinid cypriniform. We describe the sequence of the chondrification and ossification of the pharyngeal arches and associated dermal bones from Catostomus commersonii (Catostomidae, Cypriniformes) and make selected comparisons to other similarly described pharyngeal arches. We noted shared spatial trends in arch development including the formation of ventral cartilages before dorsal and anterior cartilages before posterior. Qualitatively variable gill arch elements in Cypriniformes including pharyngobranchial 1, pharyngobranchial 4, and the sublingual are the last such elements to chondrify in C. commersonii. We show that the sublingual bone in C. commersonii has two cartilaginous precursors that fuse and ossify to form the single bone in adults. This indicates homology of the sublingual in catostomids to the two sublingual bones in the adults of cobitids and balitorids. Intriguing patterns of fusion and segmentation of the cartilages in the pharyngeal arches were discovered. These include the individuation of the basihyal and anterior copula through segmentation of a single cartilage rod, fusion of cartilaginous basibranchials 4 and 5, and fusion of hypobranchial 4 with ceratobranchial 4. Such "fluidity" in cartilage patterning may be widespread in fishes and requires further comparative developmental studies. J. Morphol., 2009. © 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Modeling landscape patterns of understory tree regeneration in the Pacific Northwest, USAAPPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 2 2001Michael C. Wimberly Abstract. Vegetation maps serve as the basis for spatial analysis of forest ecosystems and provide initial information for simulations of forest landscape change. Because of the limitations of current remote sensing technology, it is not possible to directly measure forest understory attributes across large spatial extents. Instead we used a predictive vegetation mapping approach to model Tsuga heterophylla and Picea sitchensis seedling patterns in a 3900-ha landscape in the Oregon Coast Range, USA, as a function of Landsat TM imagery, aerial photographs, digital elevation models, and stream maps. Because the models explained only moderate amounts of variability (R2 values of 0.24,0.56), we interpreted the predicted patterns as qualitative spatial trends rather than precise maps. P. sitchensis seedling patterns were tightly linked to the riparian network, with highest densities in coastal riparian areas. T. heterophylla seedlings exhibited complex patterns related to topography and overstory forest cover, and were also spatially clustered around patches of old-growth forest. We hypothesize that the old growth served as refugia for this fire-sensitive species following wildfires in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Low levels of T. heterophylla regeneration in hardwood-dominated forests suggest that these patches may succeed to shrublands rather than to conifer forest. Predictive models of seedling patterns could be developed for other landscapes where georeferenced inventory plots, remote sensing data, digital elevation models, and climate maps are available. [source] Shrimp pond zooplankton dynamics and the efficiency of sampling effortAQUACULTURE RESEARCH, Issue 5 2003N P Preston Abstract The abundance and species composition of zooplankton assemblages were examined in a commercial Penaeus monodon (Fabricius) aquaculture pond in subtropical Australia. Numbers and biomass of zooplankton in the surface tows (142 µm mesh) varied from 2080 L,1 (2466 µg L,1) to < 1 L,1 (15 µg L,1). Peak zooplankton abundance and biomass occurred at the beginning of the shrimp farm season. The small copepod Oithona australis Nishida was dominant during these peaks in abundance although other species were common, including small, low-salinity copepods in the first year and larger marine copepods in the second year. Irrespective of taxa or size, zooplankton abundance declined rapidly after the stocking of P. monodon postlarvae, indicating high levels of non-selective predation. For the remainder of the grow-out season, mean zooplankton abundance was below 1 L,1 in the first season and below 3 L,1 in the second season. The factors that maintain the abundance of these zooplankton assemblages at these relatively low levels are poorly understood but may include a deterioration pond water quality. At these lower levels of abundance, the copepods Acartia pacifica Steuer and Acartia sinjiensis Mori were relatively common during the middle phase of the production season, with barnacle nauplii increasing in abundance during the later stages of the grow-out season. Analysis of fixed effects showed that there were significant differences in total zooplankton abundance between farm production seasons and occasion within season, and time (day or night). Analysis of random effects demonstrated that the dominant source of variation, in total zooplankton abundance, was day-to-day changes within sampling occasions. The complexity of temporal and spatial patterns in the abundance, distribution and composition of zooplankton assemblages in shrimp ponds presents significant challenges in designing sampling programmes that accurately quantify temporal or spatial trends. Our results have shown that sampling for more than four consecutive days, at more than one site, is necessary to accurately assess such trends. [source] Ecological and evolutionary components of body size: geographic variation of venomous snakes at the global scaleBIOLOGICAL JOURNAL OF THE LINNEAN SOCIETY, Issue 1 2009LEVI CARINA TERRIBILE Biogeographical patterns of animal body size and the environmental and evolutionary mechanisms that may be driving them have been broadly investigated in macroecology, although just barely in ectotherms. We separately studied two snake clades, Viperidae and Elapidae, and used phylogenetic eigenvector regression and ordinary least squares multiple regression methods to perform a global grid-based analysis of the extent at which the patterns of body size (measured for each species as its log10 -transformed maximum body length) of these groups are phylogenetically structured or driven by current environment trends. Phylogenetic relatedness explained 20% of the across-species size variation in Viperidae, and 59% of that of Elapidae, which is a more recent clade. Conversely, when we analysed spatial trends in mean body size values (calculated for each grid-cell as the average size of its extant species), an environmental model including temperature, precipitation, primary productivity (as indicated by the global vegetation index) and topography (range in elevation) explained 37.6% of the variation of Viperidae, but only 4.5% of that of Elapidae. These contrasted responses of body size patterns to current environment gradients are discussed, taking into consideration the dissimilar evolutionary histories of these closely-related groups. Additionally, the results obtained emphasize the importance of the need to start adopting deconstructive approaches in macroecology. © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 98, 94,109. [source] Estimating the Encounter Rate Variance in Distance SamplingBIOMETRICS, Issue 1 2009Rachel M. Fewster Summary The dominant source of variance in line transect sampling is usually the encounter rate variance. Systematic survey designs are often used to reduce the true variability among different realizations of the design, but estimating the variance is difficult and estimators typically approximate the variance by treating the design as a simple random sample of lines. We explore the properties of different encounter rate variance estimators under random and systematic designs. We show that a design-based variance estimator improves upon the model-based estimator of Buckland et al. (2001, Introduction to Distance Sampling. Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 79) when transects are positioned at random. However, if populations exhibit strong spatial trends, both estimators can have substantial positive bias under systematic designs. We show that poststratification is effective in reducing this bias. [source] | ||||||||||||||||