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Southern Oscillation (southern + oscillation)
Kinds of Southern Oscillation Terms modified by Southern Oscillation Selected AbstractsMulti-annual dry episodes in Australian climatic variabilityINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2009B. G. Hunt Abstract The output from a 10 000-year simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been analysed to investigate the occurrence of multi-year dry episodes for three selected regions of Australia, specifically, the northeast, southeast and southwest of the continent. Results are presented for dry episodes lasting for 8 or more years. An episode is defined as a time interval having consecutive negative rainfall anomalies, but not necessarily a major drought, for each year of the episode. The hydrological consequences of such an episode can persist for over a century. Typically about 30 episodes are found over the 10 000 years of the simulation for each of the three regions. There is little synchronicity between the regions in the occurrence of the dry episodes. While there is an El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence associated with these episodes, it is not continuous over the duration of an episode. Composites of sea surface temperature anomalies over an episode highlight the limited presence of ENSO events. The occurrence of the dry episodes for all three regions is essentially random, with multi-centennial periods without an episode, and episodes at multi-decadal frequency at other times. Following a discussion of possible mechanistic influences, it is concluded that stochastic forcing is responsible for the occurrence of dry episodes. This implies that there is no predictability associated with the initiation, duration or termination of individual dry episodes. This also suggests that the 2000,2007 dry episodes occurring over much of Australia may not be caused by the greenhouse effect. Such an episode has a return period of between 200 and 300 years based on the mean frequency of occurrence in the present simulation. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] On ENSO impacts on European wintertime rainfalls and their modulation by the NAO and the Pacific multi-decadal variability described through the PDO indexINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2008Davide Zanchettin Abstract While strong relationships have previously been established between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate variability in many parts of the world, previous analyses of ENSO impacts on European rainfalls have been variable and inconclusive. In this paper, the role and apparent interactions of a range of known teleconnections are assessed. It is shown that ENSO events do indeed appear to impact European rainfalls and that these impacts are likely to also depend on the concurrent state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In particular, it is demonstrated that ENSO impacts most significantly on European wintertime rainfalls during positive (warm) phases of the PDO. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] ENSO and the South China Sea summer monsoon onsetINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2007Wen Zhou Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The monsoon onset date (MOD) is defined on the basis of the switch of the 850-hPa zonal winds over the South China Sea (SCS) from easterly to westerly for two consecutive pentads. The ENSO signal is represented by the ocean heat content (OHC), which is proportional to the depth of the 20 °C isotherm. It is found that, in years associated with a warm (cold) ENSO event or the year after, the monsoon tends to have a late (an early) onset and the intensity of the SCSSM also tends to be weaker (stronger). During a 2-year period prior to the onset, anomalies of OHC have an obvious eastward propagation. The 850-hPa flow east of the Philippines, specifically the strength of the subtropical high, is also found to be critical in determining the MOD. The link between these two results appears to be the propagation of cold (warm) subsurface water into the western North Pacific (WNP), which strengthens (weakens) the subtropical high, and hence a late (an early) SCSSM onset. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Features of cross-Pacific climate shown in the variability of China and US precipitationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2005Q. Li Abstract In this study, we have analyzed the climate features of China and the United States with a focus on the differences, similarities, connectivity, and predictability of precipitation and the relationships between precipitation and large-scale patterns of natural variability. China precipitation is characterized by large seasonality, with a maximum in summer and a minimum in winter. The seasonality of precipitation shows an increasing linear tendency in northwest China, with a change of about 20% from 1901 to 1998. A relatively weaker increasing tendency also appears in the Big Bend of Yellow River (BBYR) and the Tibetan Plateau, while southwest China experiences a decreasing tendency. Furthermore, the seasonality in the BBYR shows particularly significant interdecadal variability, while that of southern and eastern China has decreased slightly in the recent decades. Compared to China, the United States as a whole has less precipitation in summer but more precipitation in other seasons. Here, the seasonality of precipitation is only about 24% of that in China. The annual mean precipitation is 64.1 mm per month in the United States, compared to 54.6 mm per month in China. The seasonality of precipitation exhibits a decreasing tendency in the southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Gulf Coast and an increasing tendency in the Great Lakes. The seasonality in the Great Plains exhibits large interdecadal variability. The long-term variations of precipitation are highly seasonally dependent. In summer, a decreasing trend is observed in north China and an increasing trend is found in eastern-central China. However, these trends are almost opposite in spring. In addition, the fall precipitation decreases with time nearly everywhere in China except for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley. Results also indicate that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the North Pacific (NP) fluctuation affect strongly the variations of China and US precipitation. Although these influences vary with regions and seasons, we in particular emphasize the importance of AO and NAO for China precipitation and NP and PDO for US precipitation. In fall, ENSO and PDO are the two phenomena that influence predominantly precipitation variability in both China and the United States We also identify the common phenomena that influence China and US regional precipitation and provide a better understanding of the physical mechanism for precipitation variability through the associated changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Furthermore, we develop a linear regression model, based on multiple regression method by combining the regionally and seasonally varying impacts, to increase the skill of precipitation prediction. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Influences of climate on fire regimes in montane forests of north-western MexicoJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 8 2008Carl N. Skinner Abstract Aim, To identify the influence of interannual and interdecadal climate variation on the occurrence and extent of fires in montane conifer forests of north-western Mexico. Location, This study was conducted in Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf.)-dominated mixed-conifer forests in the central and northern plateau of the Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Baja California, Mexico. Methods, Fire occurrence was reconstructed for 12 dispersed sites for a 290-year period (1700,1990) from cross-dated fire-scarred samples extracted from live trees, snags and logs. Superposed epoch analysis was used to examine the relationships of tree-ring reconstructions of drought, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with fire occurrence and extent. Results, Years with no recorded fire scars were wetter than average. In contrast, years of widespread fires were dry and associated with phase changes of the PDO, usually from positive (warm) to negative (cold). The influence of the PDO was most evident during the La Niña phase of the ENSO. Widespread fires were also associated with warm/wet conditions 5 years before the fire. We hypothesize that the 5-year lag between warm/wet conditions and widespread fires may be associated with the time necessary to build up sufficient quantity and continuity of needle litter to support widespread fires. Two periods of unusually high fire activity (1770,1800 and 1920,1950) were each followed by several decades of unusually low fire activity. The switch in each case was associated with strong phase changes in both PDO and ENSO. Main conclusions, Climate strongly influences fire regimes in the mountains of north-western Mexico. Wet/warm years are associated with little fire activity. However, these years may contribute to subsequent fire years by encouraging the production of sufficient needle litter to support more widespread fires that occur in dry/cool years. [source] Two major modes of variability of the East Asian summer monsoonTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 649 2010Xuguang Sun Abstract We study the two primary modes of variability associated with the East Asian summer monsoon, as identified using a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The second mode is shown to be related to changes in intensity of the South Asian High at 100 hPa while, consistent with previous work, the first mode is associated with an index for the shear vorticity of the 850 hPa zonal wind over the monsoon region. We show that a linear, dry dynamical model, when driven by the diabatic heating anomalies associated with each mode, can reproduce many of the anomalous circulation features, especially for the first EOF and in the lower troposphere. The model results indicate the importance of diabatic heating anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean in the dynamics of both modes, especially EOF-1, and illustrate the role of local diabatic feedback for intensifying the circulation anomalies; in particular, the subtropical anticyclonic anomalies that are found in the positive phase of both modes, and the circulation anomaly associated with the Meiyu/Changma/Baiu rain band. A running cross-correlation analysis shows that the second EOF is consistently linked to both the decaying and the onset phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events throughout the study period (1958,2001). We attribute the connection in the onset phase to zonal wind anomalies along the Equator in the west Pacific associated with this mode. On the other hand, a link between the first EOF and ENSO is found only in the post-1979 period. We note also the role of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean in the dynamics of EOF-1, and a link to the variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the case of EOF-2. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Impact of global warming on ENSO variability using the coupled giss GCM/ZC modelINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2006Dr. Timothy Eichler Research Scientist Abstract This study uses a hybrid coupled model (referred to as the general-circulation model (GCM)/Zebiak/Cane (ZC) model), which consists of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies' (GISS) Atmospheric general-circulation model (AGCM) coupled to the oceanic component of the ZC intermediate model to assess the impact of global warming on El Niño behavior, with and without the influence of heat introduced from the subtropical Pacific (via subtropical cell (STC) pathway). The baseline GCM/ZC model produces El Niño variability with a two year periodicity and an amplitude of approximately half the magnitude of observed El Niño. The GCM/ZC model also produces an appropriate atmospheric global response to El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) as shown by composites of 500 hPa heights, sea-level pressure (SLP), 200 hPa wind, and precipitation during El Niño and La Niña periods. To evaluate the importance of global warming on ENSO variability, 2× CO2 and 4× CO2 transient simulations were done increasing the atmospheric CO2 one percent per year, then extending the runs for an additional 70 years to obtain equilibrium climates for each run. An additional set of global-warming simulations was run after including a STC parameterization generated by computing 5-year running means of the sea-surface temperature (SST) difference between a transient run and the 1× CO2 GCM/ZC run at the anticipated subduction zones (160,130°W, 20,40°N and 20,44°S, 160,130°W) and adding it to the base of the equatorial mixed-layer of the ZC model with a time lag of 15 years. This effectively alters the vertical temperature gradient of the ZC model, which affects SST via upwelling. Two features of the GCM/ZC response to global warming are emphasized. Firstly, the inclusion of the STC results in a major redistribution of heat across the equatorial Pacific, leading to an El Niño-like response in the final equilibrium solution with less variability about the mean. The global warming aspect due to the El Niño-like response results in a positive feedback on global warming, which causes a higher global surface-air temperature (SAT) than identical transient simulations without inclusion of the STC. Secondly, including the STC effect produces a far greater magnitude of global ENSO-like impact because of the reduction of, or even the reversal of, the equatorial Pacific longitudinal SST gradient. The implications of such an extreme climate scenario are discussed. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Interspecific Effects of Artifically Propagated Fish: an Additional Conservation Risk for SalmonCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2002Phillip S. Levin We tested the hypothesis that hatchery-reared steelhead salmon ( Oncorhynchus mykiss) released into the Snake River Basin negatively affect the survival of wild Snake River steelhead and chinook ( O. tshawytscha) salmon. Because climatic conditions can influence salmon survival, we included an index of the El Niño,Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) as a covariate in our analyses. Based on time series of hatchery releases and rates of smolt-to-adult survival, we demonstrate that the survival of wild chinook salmon is negatively associated with hatchery releases of steelhead. The state of the ( ENSO) did not affect the strength of this relationship. We observed no relationship between survival of wild steelhead and steelhead hatchery releases. Our results suggest that industrial-scale production of hatchery fish may hinder the recovery of some threatened salmonids and that the potential interspecific impact of hatcheries must be considered as agencies begin the process of hatchery reform. Resumen: Por más de 120 años, las granjas han liberado números enormes de salmones del Pacífico para compensar las numerosas agresiones humanos a sus poblaciones, sin embargo, los impactos ecológicos de este esfuerzo masivo son poco entendidos. Evaluamos la hipótesis de que la trucha cabeza de acero ( Oncorhynchus mykiss) criada en granjas y liberada en la cuenca del Río Snake afecta negativamente la supervivencia de truchas cabeza de acero y salmones chinook ( O. tshawytscha) silvestres. Puesto que las condiciones climáticas pueden influir sobre la supervivencia del salmón, incluimos un índice de la Oscilación del Niño del Sur como covariable del análisis. En base a series de tiempo de las liberaciones de las granjas y las tasas de supervivencia hasta adulto de peces migrantes al mar, demostramos que la supervivencia del salmón chinook silvestre está negativamente correlacionada con las liberaciones de truchas cabeza de acero de las granjas. El estado de la Oscilación del Niño del Sur no afectó el grado de correlación. No observamos relación alguna entre la supervivencia de las truchas silvestres y las liberaciones de las granjas. Nuestros resultados sugieren que la producción a escala industrial de peces de granja puede obstaculizar la recuperación de algunos salmónidos amenazados y que el impacto interespecífico potencial de las granjas debería ser considerado en cuanto las agencias inicien el proceso de reforma de las granjas. [source] Dynamics of the SAR11 bacterioplankton lineage in relation to environmental conditions in the oligotrophic North Pacific subtropical gyreENVIRONMENTAL MICROBIOLOGY, Issue 9 2009Alexander Eiler Summary A quantitative PCR assay for the SAR11 clade of marine Alphaproteobacteria was applied to nucleic acids extracted from monthly depth profiles sampled over a 3-year period (2004,2007) at the open-ocean Station ALOHA (A Long-term Oligotrophic Habitat Assessment; 22°45,N, 158°00,W) in the oligotrophic North Pacific Ocean. This analysis revealed a high contribution (averaging 36% of 16S rRNA gene copies) of SAR11 to the total detected 16S rRNA gene copies over depths ranging from the surface layer to 4000 m, and revealed consistent spatial and temporal variation in the relative abundance of SAR11 16S rRNA gene copies. On average, a higher proportion of SAR11 rRNA gene copies were detected in the photic zone (< 175 m depth; mean = 38%) compared with aphotic (> 175 m depth; mean = 30%), and in the winter months compared with the summer (mean = 44% versus 33%, integrated over 175 m depth). Partial least square to latent structure projections identified environmental variables that correlate with variation in the absolute abundance of SAR11, and provided tools for developing a predictive model to explain time and depth-dependent variations in SAR11. Moreover, this information was used to hindcast temporal dynamics of the SAR11 clade between 1997 and 2006 using the existing HOT data set, which suggested that interannual variations in upper ocean SAR11 abundances were related to ocean-climate variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. [source] El Niño, climate change, and Southern African climateENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 4 2001Simon J. Mason Abstract The El Niño phenomenon involves a large-scale warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. Recent developments in the El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have raised concerns about climate change. In this review paper, these recent developments are critically assessed and forecasts of possible future changes are reviewed. Since the late-1970s, El Niño episodes have been unusually recurrent, while the frequency of strong La Niña events has been low. Prolonged/recurrent warm event conditions of the first half of the 1990s were the result of the persistence of an anomalously warm pool near the date line, which, in turn, may be part of an abrupt warming trend in tropical sea-surface temperatures that occurred in the late-1970s. The abrupt warming of tropical sea-surface temperatures has been attributed to the enhanced-greenhouse effect, but may be indicative of inter-decadal variability: earlier changes in the frequency of ENSO events and earlier persistent El Niño and La Niña sequences have occurred. Most forecasts of ENSO variability in a doubled-CO2 climate suggest that the recent changes in the tropical Pacific are anomalous. Of potential concern, however, is a possible reduction in the predictability of ENSO events given a warmer background climate. El Niño events usually are associated with below-normal rainfall over much of southern Africa. Mechanisms for this influence on southern African climate are discussed, and the implications of possible changes in ENSO variability on the climate of the region are assessed. Recent observed changes in southern African climate and their possible relationships with trends in ENSO variability are investigated. The El Niño influence on rainfall over southern Africa occurs largely because of a weakening of tropical convection over the subcontinent. A warming of the Indian Ocean during El Niño events appears to be important in providing a teleconnection from the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The abrupt warming of the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans in the late-1970s is probably partly responsible for increasing air temperatures over southern Africa, and may have contributed to a prolongation of predominantly dry conditions. A return to a wet phase appears to have occurred, despite the persistence of anomalously high sea-surface temperatures associated with the late-1970s warming, and a record-breaking El Niño in 1997/98. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Time series analyses reveal transient relationships between abundance of larval anchovy and environmental variables in the coastal waters southwest of TaiwanFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2009CHIH-HAO HSIEH Abstract We investigated environmental effects on larval anchovy fluctuations (based on CPUE from 1980 to 2000) in the waters off southwestern Taiwan using advanced time series analyses, including the state-space approach to remove seasonality, wavelet analysis to investigate transient relationships, and stationary bootstrap to test correlation between time series. For large-scale environmental effects, we used the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to represent the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); for local hydrographic conditions, we used sea surface temperature (SST), river runoff, and mixing conditions. Whereas the anchovy catch consisted of a northern species (Engraulis japonicus) and two southern species (Encrasicholina heteroloba and Encrasicholina punctifer), the magnitude of the anchovy catch appeared to be mainly determined by the strength of Eng. japonicus (Japanese anchovy). The main factor that caused the interannual variation of anchovy CPUE might change through time. The CPUE showed a negative correlation with combination of water temperature and river runoff before 1987 and a positive correlation with river runoff after 1988. Whereas a significant negative correlation between CPUE and ENSOs existed, this correlation was driven completely by the low-frequency ENSO events and explained only 10% of the variance. Several previous studies on this population emphasized that the fluctuations of larval anchovy abundance were determined by local SST. Our analyses indicated that such a correlation was transient and simply reflected ENSO signals. Recent advances in physical oceanography around Taiwan showed that the ENSOs reduced the strength of the Asian monsoon and thus weakened the China Coastal Current toward Taiwan. The decline of larval anchovy during ENSO may be due to reduced China Coastal Current, which is important in facilitating the spawning migration of the Japanese anchovy. [source] Synchronicity in southern hemisphere squid stocks and the influence of the Southern Oscillation and Trans Polar IndexFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2004C. M. Waluda Abstract Squid are short lived, with highly labile populations that respond rapidly to changes in environmental conditions. This makes them a good model for studying the response of recruitment processes to environmental signals. This study examines the influence of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Trans Polar Index (TPI) on the environment and abundance of six species of commercially important squid from the southern hemisphere, all linked to major current systems connected by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current: Dosidicus gigas (Southeast Pacific), Loligo vulgaris reynaudii (Southeast Atlantic), Nototodarus sloanii, N. gouldi (Southwest Pacific), Illex argentinus and L. gahi (Southwest Atlantic). All fisheries displayed a high level of inter-annual variability and a degree of synchronicity was seen to occur in the abundance of the three Pacific species. The SOI signal was reflected in the environment of each fishery, particularly in Pacific regions. Both indices are correlated with squid abundance, particularly during the early life history stages (SOI) and adult stages (TPI), suggesting some degree of latitudinal separation, with juveniles potentially influenced by environmental variability at lower latitudes and adults at higher latitudes. [source] Copepod species diversity and climate variability in the tropical Atlantic OceanFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 4-5 2003Sergey A. Piontkovski Abstract A database synthesized from 19 oceanographic expeditions conducted by the former Soviet Union was used to analyse interannual patterns in copepod species diversity in the tropical Atlantic. Mesozooplankton was collected predominately in vertical hauls through the upper 100 m with Juday nets. The samples from 744 oceanographic stations were identified and enumerated to the species level. To assess species diversity, the Shannon diversity index was used. On the interdecadal scale, no statistically confirmed trend was found in species diversity change over the years sampled (1963,89). Multiple regression analysis indicated that interannual fluctuations of the South Atlantic High (pressure and latitude), the Azores High longitude and El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index could explain 87% of species diversity fluctuations. Possible mechanisms that drive interannual fluctuations of species diversity are discussed. [source] Short-term climatic trends affect the temporal variability of macroinvertebrates in California ,Mediterranean' streamsFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 12 2007LEAH A. BÊCHE Summary 1. Long-term studies in ecology are essential for understanding natural variability and in interpreting responses to disturbances and human perturbations. We assessed the long-term variability, stability and persistence of macroinvertebrate communities by analysing data from three regions in northern California with a mediterranean-climate. During the study period, precipitation either increased or decreased, and extreme drought events occurred in each region. 2. Temporal trends in precipitation resulted in shifts from ,dry-year' communities, dominated by taxa adapted to no or low flow, to ,wet-year' communities dominated by taxa adapted to high flows. The abundance of chironomid larvae was an important driver of community change. Directional change in community composition occurred at all sites and was correlated with precipitation patterns, with more dramatic change occurring in smaller streams. 3. All communities exhibited high to moderate persistence (defined by the presence/absence of a species) and moderate to low stability (defined by changes in abundance) over the study period. Stability and persistence were correlated with climatic variation (precipitation and El Niño Southern Oscillation) and stream size. Stability and persistence increased as a result of drought in small streams (first-order) but decreased in larger streams (second- and third-order). Communities from the dry season were less stable than those from the wet-season. 4. This study demonstrates the importance of long-term studies in capturing the effects of and recovery from rare events, such as the prolonged and extreme droughts considered here. [source] Soil and atmospheric water deficits and the distribution of New Zealand's indigenous tree speciesFUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2001Leathwick J. R. Summary 1.,An extensive data set describing the composition of New Zealand's remaining indigenous forests was used to estimate the degree of correlation between measures of both soil and atmospheric water deficit and the distribution of common tree species. 2.,For most species, regression models incorporating measures of air saturation deficit in early autumn, as well as an annual integral of root zone water deficit, provided the best explanation of spatial distribution. This accords strongly with the mechanistic effects of air saturation deficits on transpiration from trees, and the hydraulic risks experienced by trees under high evaporative demand. 3.,Adjustment of root zone water deficits to account for reductions in rainfall in dry years substantially improved model predictions. This suggests that extreme climatic events, such as the El Niño phase of the Southern Oscillation, are likely to have strongly influenced the historic composition of forests in New Zealand's drier eastern lowlands. [source] Regeneration patterns and persistence of the fog-dependent Fray Jorge forest in semiarid Chile during the past two centuriesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2008ALVARO G. GUTIÉRREZ Abstract The persistence of rainforest patches at Fray Jorge National Park (FJNP) in semiarid Chile (30°40,S), a region receiving approximately 147 mm of annual rainfall, has been a source of concern among forest managers. These forests are likely dependent on water inputs from oceanic fog and their persistence seems uncertain in the face of climate change. Here, we assessed tree radial growth and establishment during the last two centuries and their relation to trends in climate and canopy disturbance. Such evaluation is critical to understanding the dynamics of these semiarid ecosystems in response to climate change. We analyzed forest structure of six forest patches (0.2,22 ha) in FJNP based on sampling within 0.1 ha permanent plots. For the main canopy species, the endemic Aextoxicon punctatum (Aextoxicaceae), we used tree-ring analysis to assess establishment periods, tree ages, growing trends and their relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), rainfall, and disturbance. The population dynamics of A. punctatum can be described by a continuous regeneration mode. Regeneration of A. punctatum was sensitive to different canopy structures. Growth release patterns suggest the absence of large scale human impact. Radial growth and establishment of A. punctatum were weakly correlated with rainfall and ENSO. If water limits forests patch persistence, patches are likely dependent on the combination of fog and rain water inputs. Forest patches have regenerated continuously for at least 250 years, despite large fluctuations in rainfall driven by ENSO and a regional decline in rainfall during the last century. Because of the positive influence on fog interception, forest structure should be preserved under any future climate scenario. Future research in FJNP should prioritize quantifying the long-term trends of fog water deposition on forests patches. Fog modeling is crucial for understanding the interplay among physical drivers of water inputs under climate change. [source] Herbivory and plant growth rate determine the success of El Niño Southern Oscillation-driven tree establishment in semiarid South AmericaGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 12 2006MILENA HOLMGREN Abstract While climatic extremes are predicted to increase with global warming, we know little about the effect of climatic variability on biome distribution. Here, we show that rainy El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can enhance tree recruitment in the arid and semiarid ecosystems of north-central Chile and northwest Peru. Tree-ring studies in natural populations revealed that rainy El Niño episodes have triggered forest regeneration in Peru. Field experiments indicate that tree seedling recruitment in Chile is much less successful than in Peru due mostly to larger mortality caused by herbivores. The dramatic impact of herbivores in Chile was derived from the combined result of slower plant growth and the presence of exotic herbivores (European rabbits and hares). The interplay of herbivory and climatic effects we demonstrated implies that rainy ENSO events may represent ,windows of opportunity' for forest recovery if herbivore pressure is minimized at the right moment. [source] Climate,growth relationships of tropical tree species in West Africa and their potential for climate reconstructionGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2006JOCHEN SCHÖNGART Abstract Most tropical regions are facing historical difficulties of generating biologically reconstructed long-term climate records. Dendrochronology (tree-ring studies) is a powerful tool to develop high-resolution and exactly dated proxies for climate reconstruction. Owing to the seasonal variation in rainfall we expected the formation of annual tree rings in the wood of tropical West African tree species. In the central-western part of Benin (upper Ouémé catchment, UOC) and in northeastern Ivory Coast (Comoé National Park, CNP) we investigated the relationship between climate (precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST)) and tree rings and show their potential for climate reconstruction. Wood samples of almost 200 trees belonging to six species in the UOC and CNP served to develop climate-sensitive ring-width chronologies using standard dendrochronological techniques. The relationship between local precipitation, monthly SST anomalies in the Gulf of Guinea, El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ring-width indices was performed by simple regression analyses, two sample tests and cross-spectral analysis. A low-pass filter was used to highlight the decadal variability in rainfall of the UOC site. All tree species showed significant relationships with annual precipitation proving the existence of annual tree rings. ENSO signals could not be detected in the ring-width patterns. For legume tree species at the UOC site significant relationships could be found between SST anomalies in the Gulf of Guinea indicating correlations at periods of 5.1,4.1 and 2.3 years. Our findings accurately show the relationship between tree growth, local precipitation and SST anomalies in the Gulf of Guinea possibly associated with worldwide SST patterns. A master chronology enabled the reconstruction of the annual precipitation in the UOC to the year 1840. Time series analysis suggest increasing arid conditions during the last 160 years which may have large impacts on the hydrological cycles and consequently on the ecosystem dynamics and the development of socio-economic cultures and sectors in the Guinea-Congolian/Sudanian region. [source] Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and tree growth: a basin-wide analysisGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2004Daniel Nepstad Abstract Severe drought in moist tropical forests provokes large carbon emissions by increasing forest flammability and tree mortality, and by suppressing tree growth. The frequency and severity of drought in the tropics may increase through stronger El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, global warming, and rainfall inhibition by land use change. However, little is known about the spatial and temporal patterns of drought in moist tropical forests, and the complex relationships between patterns of drought and forest fire regimes, tree mortality, and productivity. We present a simple geographic information system soil water balance model, called RisQue (Risco de Queimada , Fire Risk) for the Amazon basin that we use to conduct an analysis of these patterns for 1996,2001. RisQue features a map of maximum plant-available soil water (PAWmax) developed using 1565 soil texture profiles and empirical relationships between soil texture and critical soil water parameters. PAW is depleted by monthly evapotranspiration (ET) fields estimated using the Penman,Monteith equation and satellite-derived radiation inputs and recharged by monthly rain fields estimated from 266 meteorological stations. Modeled PAW to 10 m depth (PAW10 m) was similar to field measurements made in two Amazon forests. During the severe drought of 2001, PAW10 m fell to below 25% of PAWmax in 31% of the region's forests and fell below 50% PAWmax in half of the forests. Field measurements and experimental forest fires indicate that soil moisture depletion below 25% PAWmax corresponds to a reduction in leaf area index of approximately 25%, increasing forest flammability. Hence, approximately one-third of Amazon forests became susceptible to fire during the 2001 ENSO period. Field measurements also suggest that the ENSO drought of 2001 reduced carbon storage by approximately 0.2 Pg relative to years without severe soil moisture deficits. RisQue is sensitive to spin-up time, rooting depth, and errors in ET estimates. Improvements in our ability to accurately model soil moisture content of Amazon forests will depend upon better understanding of forest rooting depths, which can extend to beyond 15 m. RisQue provides a tool for early detection of forest fire risk. [source] Sub-saharan desertification and productivity are linked to hemispheric climate variabilityGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2001Gufu Oba Summary Vegetation productivity and desertification in sub-Saharan Africa may be influenced by global climate variability attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Combined and individual effects of the NAO and ENSO indices revealed that 75% of the interannual variation in the area of Sahara Desert was accounted for by the combined effects, with most variance attributable to the NAO. Effects were shown in the latitudinal variation on the 200 mm isocline, which was influenced mostly by the NAO. The combined indices explained much of the interannual variability in vegetation productivity in the Sahelian zone and southern Africa, implying that both the NAO and ENSO may be useful for monitoring effects of global climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. [source] New insights into global patterns of ocean temperature anomalies: implications for coral reef health and managementGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Elizabeth R. Selig ABSTRACT Aim, Coral reefs are widely considered to be particularly vulnerable to changes in ocean temperatures, yet we understand little about the broad-scale spatio-temporal patterns that may cause coral mortality from bleaching and disease. Our study aimed to characterize these ocean temperature patterns at biologically relevant scales. Location, Global, with a focus on coral reefs. Methods, We created a 4-km resolution, 21-year global ocean temperature anomaly (deviations from long-term means) database to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature anomalies related to both coral bleaching and disease. Then we tested how patterns varied in several key metrics of disturbance severity, including anomaly frequency, magnitude, duration and size. Results, Our analyses found both global variation in temperature anomalies and fine-grained spatial variability in the frequency, duration and magnitude of temperature anomalies. However, we discovered that even during major climatic events with strong spatial signatures, like the El Niño,Southern Oscillation, areas that had high numbers of anomalies varied between years. In addition, we found that 48% of bleaching-related anomalies and 44% of disease-related anomalies were less than 50 km2, much smaller than the resolution of most models used to forecast climate changes. Main conclusions, The fine-scale variability in temperature anomalies has several key implications for understanding spatial patterns in coral bleaching- and disease-related anomalies as well as for designing protected areas to conserve coral reefs in a changing climate. Spatial heterogeneity in temperature anomalies suggests that certain reefs could be targeted for protection because they exhibit differences in thermal stress. However, temporal variability in anomalies could complicate efforts to protect reefs, because high anomalies in one year are not necessarily predictive of future patterns of stress. Together, our results suggest that temperature anomalies related to coral bleaching and disease are likely to be highly heterogeneous and could produce more localized impacts of climate change. [source] El Niño Southern Oscillation link to the Blue Nile River Basin hydrologyHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 26 2009Wossenu Abtew Abstract The objective of this study is to evaluate the relationships of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and the Blue Nile River Basin hydrology using a new approach that tracks cumulative ENSO indices. The results of this study can be applied for water resources management decision making to mitigate drought or flood impacts with a lead time of at least few months. ENSO tracking and forecasting is relatively easier than predicting hydrology. ENSO teleconnections to the Blue Nile River Basin hydrology were evaluated using spatial average basin rainfall and Blue Nile flows at Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. The ENSO indices were sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in region Niño 3·4 and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The analysis indicates that the Upper Blue Nile Basin rainfall and flows are teleconnected to the ENSO indices. Based on event correspondence and correlation analysis, high rainfall and high flows are likely to occur during La Niña years and dry years are likely to occur during El Niño years at a confidence level of 90%. Extreme dry and wet years are very likely to correspond with ENSO events as given above. The great Ethiopian famine of 1888,1892 corresponds to one of the strongest El Niño years, 1888. The recent drought years in Ethiopia correspond to strong El Niño years and wet years correspond to La Niña years. In this paper, a new approach is proposed on how to classify the strength of ENSO events by tracking consecutive monthly events through a year. A cumulative SST index value of ,5 and cumulative SOI value of , ,7 indicate strong El Niño. A cumulative SST index value of ,,5 and cumulative SOI index of ,7 indicate strong La Niña. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Long-term trends and cycles in the hydrometeorology of the Amazon basin since the late 1920sHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 22 2009José A. Marengo Abstract Rainfall and river indices for both the northern and southern Amazon were used to identify and explore long-term climate variability on the region. From a statistical analysis of the hydrometeorological series, it is concluded that no systematic unidirectional long-term trends towards drier or wetter conditions have been identified since the 1920s. The rainfall and river series showing variability at inter-annual scales linked to El Niño Southern Oscillation was detected in rainfall in the northern Amazon. It has a low-frequency variability with a peak at , 30 years identified in both rainfall and river series in the Amazon. The presence of cycles rather than a trend is characteristic of rainfall in the Amazon. These cycles are real indicators of decadal and multi-decadal variations in hydrology for both sides of the basin. Sea-level pressure (SLP) gradients between tropics and sub topics were explored in order to explain variability in the hydrometeorology of the basin. Sea surface temperature (SST) gradients inside the tropical Atlantic and between the tropical Atlantic and the sub-tropical Atlantic have been assessed in the context of changes in rainfall in the Amazon, as compared to northern Argentina. Trends in SSTs in the subtropical Atlantic are linked to changes in rainfall and circulation in northern Argentina, and they seem to be related to multi-decadal variations of rainfall in the Amazon. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Regime-dependent streamflow sensitivities to Pacific climate modes cross the Georgia,Puget transboundary ecoregionHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 24 2007Sean W. Fleming Abstract The Georgia Basin,Puget Sound Lowland region of British Columbia (Canada) and Washington State (USA) presents a crucial test in environmental management due to its combination of abundant salmonid habitat, rapid population growth and urbanization, and multiple national jurisdictions. It is also hydrologically complex and heterogeneous, containing at least three streamflow regimes: pluvial (rainfall-driven winter freshet), nival (melt-driven summer freshet), and hybrid (both winter and summer freshets), reflecting differing elevation ranges within various watersheds. We performed bootstrapped composite analyses of river discharge, air temperature, and precipitation data to assess El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) impacts upon annual hydrometeorological cycles across the study area. Canadian and American data were employed from a total of 21 hydrometric and four meteorological stations. The surface meteorological anomalies showed strong regional coherence. In contrast, the seasonal impacts of coherent modes of Pacific circulation variability were found to be fundamentally different between streamflow regimes. Thus, ENSO and PDO effects can vary from one stream to the next within this region, albeit in a systematic way. Furthermore, watershed glacial cover appeared to complicate such relationships locally; and an additional annual streamflow regime was identified that exhibits climatically driven non-linear phase transitions. The spatial heterogeneity of seasonal flow responses to climatic variability may have substantial implications to catchment-specific management and planning of water resources and hydroelectric power generation, and it may also have ecological consequences due to the matching or phase-locking of lotic and riparian biological activity and life cycles to the seasonal cycle. The results add to a growing body of literature suggesting that assessments of the streamflow impacts of ocean,atmosphere circulation modes must accommodate local hydrological characteristics and dynamics. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. The copyright in Paul H. Whitfield's contribution belongs to the Crown in right of Canada and such copyright material is reproduced with the permission of Environment Canada. [source] The influences of the Southern and North Atlantic Oscillations on climatic surface variables in TurkeyHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 6 2005M. Ça, atay Karabörk Abstract In this study, Turkish climatic variables (precipitation, stream flow and maximum and minimum temperatures) were first analysed in association with both the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The relationships between Turkish maximum and minimum monthly temperatures and the extreme phases of the SO (El Niño and La Niña events) were examined. The results of this analysis showed that relationships between Turkish monthly maximum temperatures and El Niño and La Niña contain some complexity still to be identified, because both events produce a signal indicating a correspondence with cold anomalies in the aggregate composites. A relationship between turkish minimum temperatures and El Niño was detected in western Anatolia, whereas there was no significant and consistent signal associated with La Niña. Moreover a series of cross-correlation analyses was carried out to demonstrate the teleconnections between the climatic variables and both the NAO and SO. The NAO during winter was found to influence precipitation and stream-flow patterns. In contrast temperature patterns appeared to be less sensitive to the NAO. Furthermore, lag-correlation results indicated a prediction potential for both precipitation and stream-flow variables in connection with the NAO. Simultaneous and time-lag correlations between the climatic variables and the SO index, in general, indicated weaker relationships in comparison with those for the NAO. These analyses also showed that the influences of the SO on Turkish temperature data are negligible. The outcomes were presented in conjunction with an explanation regarding physical mechanisms behind the implied teleconnections. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] On the interannual wintertime rainfall variability in the Southern AndesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2010M. H. González Abstract The paper concentrates on the analysis of the interannual variability of wintertime rainfall in the Southern Andes. Besides the socio-economic relevance of the region, mainly associated with hydroelectric energy production, the study of the climate variability in that area has not received as much attention as others along the Andes. The results show that winter rainfall explains the largest percentage of regional total annuals. A principal component analysis (PCA) of the winter rainfall anomalies showed that the regional year-to-year variability is mostly explained by three leading patterns. While one of them is significantly associated with both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the other two patterns are significantly related to interannual changes of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. Specifically, changes in the ocean surface conditions at both tropical basins induce in the atmospheric circulation the generation of Rossby wave trains that extend along the South Pacific towards South America, and alter the circulation at the region under study. The relationship between variability in the Indian Ocean and the Andes climate variability has not been previously addressed. Therefore, this result makes a significant contribution to the identification of the sources of predictability in South America with relevant consequences for future applications in seasonal predictions. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Effect of late 1970's climate shift on tropospheric biennial oscillation,role of local Indian Ocean processes on Asian summer monsoonINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2010Prasanth A Pillai Abstract The tropical climate has undergone noticeable changes on interdecadal time scales. The climate shift that occurred in the late 1970s attained enormous attention owing to its global-scale variations in ocean temperature, heat content and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties. Earlier studies presented the effect of this shift on ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon,ENSO relationship. The present study is an attempt to investigate the effect of late 1970's climate shift on tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO), which is an important tropical phenomenon that includes both air,sea processes in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean regions. TBO is the tendency for the Asian,Australian monsoon system to alternate between relatively strong and weak years. The study comprises a detailed analysis of the TBO cycle in the time periods before (1951,1975) and after (1978,2002) the climate shift in 1976 with the help of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) data sets of 200-hPa velocity potential; the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation are more obvious after the shift, although they were significant in the Pacific Ocean before 1976. The effect of ENSO in the biennial cycle is reduced with climate shift. The persistence of Asian-to-Australian summer monsoon has weakened in recent decades, as it is controlled by ENSO. Local oceanic processes in the Indian Ocean and local monsoon Hadley circulation have an increased role in the biennial oscillation of the Asian summer monsoon after 1976. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] ENSO history recorded in Agathis australis (kauri) tree rings.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2008Part A: kauri's potential as an ENSO proxy Abstract Although many of the main characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have been established, uncertainties remain concerning its multidecadal- to millennial-scale evolution. Because of the shortness of the instrumental record, we need to resort to proxy-based reconstructions to investigate ENSO's history prior to the mid 19th century, but the available proxy data is limited in both time and space. Here we investigate the potential for ENSO reconstruction from the tree rings of Agathis australis (kauri). Kauri is a long-lived endemic New Zealand conifer and grows in an ENSO teleconnection region not previously represented in ENSO multi-proxy studies. A high quality 423 year kauri regional master chronology (AD 1580,2002) is constructed. Statistical analysis of the period AD 1876,2002 confirms previous findings that kauri tree rings carry a strong regional-scale climate signal and that ENSO is a significant contributor (predominantly via the western pole of the Southern Oscillation). Kauri carries a signal of both ENSO phases, but with a slight El Niño bias. Growth sensitivity is primarily registered through a five-season window, extending from March (prior to growth initiation in September) through to the following May, with strongest relationships across the middle three seasons (June,February). Relationships appear to be stationary. We conclude that kauri has sufficient ENSO event capture skill to make it a useful addition to future multi-proxy ENSO reconstruction efforts. It may also have potential for stand-alone reconstruction of multidecadal- to millennial-scale evolution of ENSO activity, especially ENSO robustness. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Intercomparison of global cloud cover fields over oceans from the VOS observations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysisINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2007Ernst Bedacht Abstract The paper inter-compares the total cloud cover over the World Ocean from marine visual observations assimilated in the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) and National Centers of Environmental Prediction/National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis. The Intercomparison covers the period from 1948 to 2002. NCEP-NCAR reanalysis shows about 10% of fractional cloud cover smaller than the visual observations do. The largest differences are observed in the mid and sub-polar latitudes. In the tropics, NCEP-NCAR data show slightly higher cloud cover then ICOADS. These systematic differences are quite persistent through the year with somewhat stronger differences in summer. Comparison of the characteristics of inter-annual variability shows little consistency between visually observed total cloud cover and total cloudiness diagnosed by the reanalysis. Linear trends are primarily positive in the ICOADS cloud data, while in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis they show downward trends in the tropics and upward tendencies in the mid and high latitudes. Analysis of the effect of sampling in ICOADS shows that sampling inhomogeneity cannot fully explain the disagreements observed. At the same time, the major climate variability patterns such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El-Nino,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are well captured in both ICOADS and NCEP-NCAR cloud cover data sets. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Basin-wide warming of the Indian Ocean during El Niño and Indian Ocean dipole yearsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2007J. S. Chowdary Abstract Basin-wide wintertime surface warming is observed in the Indian Ocean during El Niño years. The basin-wide warming is found to be stronger when El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) co-occur. The mechanisms responsible for the basin-wide warming are different for the years with El Niño only (El Niño without IOD) and for the co-occurrence (both El Niño and IOD) years. Strong westward propagation of downwelling Rossby waves is observed in the southern Indian Ocean during the IOD years. Such strong propagation is not seen in the case of the El Niño-only years. This indicates that the ocean dynamics play an important role in winter warming of the western Indian Ocean during the IOD years. The weak easterly wind anomalies in the El Niño-only years show no measurable impact on the Wyrtki Jets, but weakening or reversal of these jets is seen in the IOD years. This strongly suggests that the variability related to surface circulation is due to the local IOD forcing rather than El Niño induced wind anomaly. For the El Niño-only composites, surface heat fluxes (mainly latent heat flux and short wave radiation) play an important role in maintaining the basin-wide surface warming in the Indian Ocean. In the IOD-only composites (when there is no El Niño in the Pacific), such basin-wide warming is not seen because of the absence of ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation) induced subsidence over the eastern Indian Ocean. For the years in which both El Niño in the Pacific and dipole in the Indian Ocean co-occur, warming in the western Indian Ocean is due to the ocean dynamics and that in the eastern Indian Ocean is due to the anomalous latent heat flux and solar radiation. 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