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Severe Weather Events (severe + weather_event)
Selected AbstractsA high-resolution modelling case study of a severe weather event over New ZealandATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 3 2008Stuart Webster Abstract In this article, the ability of the Met Office Unified Model to simulate the severe weather over the South Island of New Zealand, on 8 January 2004 is investigated. Simulations were run at horizontal resolutions of between 60 and 1 km. The modelled broad-scale rainfall and wind features, most notably the area-averaged accumulated rainfall, were found to converge with resolution. At the highest resolutions, all the observed rainfall and wind features of this event were captured well by the model. Even the 12-km-resolution model is able to resolve the broad elongated ridge-like structure of the Southern Alps and qualitatively capture the main features of the rainfall and wind fields. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright 2008, published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] An application portal for collaborative coastal modelingCONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION: PRACTICE & EXPERIENCE, Issue 12 2007Chongjie Zhang Abstract We describe the background, architecture and implementation of a user portal for the SCOOP coastal ocean observing and modeling community. SCOOP is engaged in the real-time prediction of severe weather events, including tropical storms and hurricanes, and provides operational information including wind, storm surge and resulting inundation, which are important for emergency management. The SCOOP portal, built with the GridSphere Framework, currently integrates customized Grid portlet components for data access, job submission, resource management and notification. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Effect of experimentally altered food abundance on fat reserves of wintering birdsJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2003Christopher M. Rogers Summary 1Current models of adaptive fat regulation make opposing predictions concerning the effect of increased winter food supply on size of the avian winter fat reserve. To distinguish between models, food supply was varied experimentally in nature and two measures of size of the fat reserve were taken at food-supplemented sites and non-supplemented sites. 2In two winters, most of the seven species sampled showed slightly higher visible subcutaneous fat class at supplemented than at non-supplemented sites; treatment and species factors were statistically significant. Body mass corrected for wing length showed a similar if non-significant trend. 3A parallel dispersal study of birds colour-banded at non-supplemented sites showed that these birds did not move 0·8 or 1·5 km to use supplemental food at private feeding stations in the study areas. In addition, accipiter hawk attack rate did not differ between supplemented and non-supplemented sites. 4These results are consistent with a model of adaptive fat regulation (based on between-day environmental variability caused by severe weather events) that predicts an increase in the winter fat reserve at increased food supply. Other published studies, all from the north temperate zone, showed the same pattern. 5The present results are inconsistent with a second model (based on within-day foraging interruption) which predicts a decrease in the fat reserve under increased food supply. However, a set of published studies, all from tropical regions or regions with mild maritime climate, showed the decrease at higher food predicted by the second but not the first model. 6Models of adaptive fat regulation in small birds are therefore limited in their predictive power, perhaps because they are developed for environments that differ in the time scale of environmental stochasticity. New studies are needed that explore further the complexities of environment-specific adaptive fat models, e.g. a winter feeding experiment in a tropical bird species. [source] A review of the initiation of precipitating convection in the United KingdomTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 617 2006Lindsay J. Bennett Abstract Recent severe weather events have prompted the European scientific community to assess the current understanding of convective processes with a view to more detailed and accurate forecasting. The initial development of convective cells remains one of the least understood aspects and one in which limited research has taken place. The important processes can be split into three main areas: boundary-layer forcing, upper-level forcing and secondary generation. This paper is a review of the mechanisms responsible for the initiation of precipitating convection in the United Kingdom; i.e. why convective clouds form and develop into precipitating clouds in a particular location. The topography of the United Kingdom has a large influence on the initiation of convection. Boundary-layer forcings determine the specific location where convection is triggered within larger regions of potential instability. These latter regions are created by mesoscale or synoptic-scale features at a higher level such as dry intrusions and mesoscale vortices. Second-generation cells are those formed by the interaction of outflow from convective clouds with the surrounding environmental air. Large, long-lived thunderstorm complexes can develop when new cells are repeatedly triggered on one side of the system. Current and future field campaigns along with the development of high-resolution modelling will enable these processes to be investigated in more detail than has previously been achieved. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2006. Contributions by P. A. Clark and M. E. B. Gray are Crown Copyright. [source] Validation of precipitable water from ECMWF model analyses with GPS and radiosonde data during the MAP SOPTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 612 2005Olivier Bock Abstract Precipitable water vapour contents (PWCs) from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses have been compared with observations from 21 ground-based Global Positioning System receiving stations (GPS) and 14 radiosonde stations (RS), covering central Europe, for the period of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme experiment special observing period (MAP SOP). Two model analyses are considered: one using only conventional data, serving as a control assimilation experiment, and one including additionally most of the non-operational MAP data. Overall, a dry bias of about ,1 kg m,2 (,5.5% of total PWC), with a standard deviation of ,2.6 kg m,2 (13% of total PWC), is diagnosed in both model analyses with respect to GPS. The bias at individual sites is quite variable: from ,4 to ,0 kg m,2. The largest differences are observed at stations located in mountainous areas and/or near the sea, which reveal differences in representativeness. Differences between the two model analyses, and between these analyses and GPS, are investigated in terms of usage and quality of RS data. Biases in RS data are found from comparisons with both model and GPS PWCs. They are confirmed from analysis feedback statistics available at ECMWF. An overall dry bias in RS PWC of 4.5% is found, compared to GPS. The detection of RS biases from comparisons both with the model and GPS indicates that data screening during assimilation was generally effective. However, some RS bias went into the model analyses. Inspection of the time evolution of PWC from the model analyses and GPS occasionally showed differences of up to 5,10 kg m,2. These were associated with severe weather events, with variations in the amount of RS data being assimilated, and with time lags in the PWCs from the two model analyses. Such large differences contribute strongly to the overall observed standard deviations. Good confidence in GPS PWC estimates is gained through this work, even during periods of heavy rain. These results support the future assimilation of GPS data, both for operational weather prediction and for mesoscale simulation studies. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] | ||||||||||