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Scenarios
Kinds of Scenarios Selected AbstractsSCENARIO: THE STORY OF A. AS TOLD TO A SMALL GROUP AT A YOUTH SHELTERFAMILY COURT REVIEW, Issue 3 2007Article first published online: 26 MAY 200 No abstract is available for this article. [source] INTEGRATED MODELLING OF WATER POLICY SCENARIOS IN THE GREAT BARRIER REEF REGIONECONOMIC PAPERS: A JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS AND POLICY, Issue 3 2005Alexander Smajgl The Reef Water Quality Protection Plan defined a landmark in the political discussion on water use in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region. In order to develop a decision support tool that integrates market values and non-market values we combine Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling with multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) to integrate socio-economic, ecological and hydrological aspects of water use. In two scenarios the applied modelling approach of this paper is explained. [source] WATER QUALITY MODELING OF ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURAL SCENARIOS IN THE U.S. CORN BELT,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 3 2002Kellie B. Vaché ABSTRACT: Simulated water quality resulting from three alternative future land-use scenarios for two agricultural watersheds in central Iowa was compared to water quality under current and historic land use/land cover to explore both the potential water quality impact of perpetuating current trends and potential benefits of major changes in agricultural practices in the U.S. Corn Belt. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to evaluate the effect of management practices on surface water discharge and annual loads of sediment and nitrate in these watersheds. The agricultural practices comprising Scenario 1, which assumes perpetuation of current trends (conversion to conservation tillage, increase in farm size and land in production, use of currently-employed Best Management Practices (BMPs)) result in simulated increased export of nitrate and decreased export of sediment relative to the present. However, simulations indicate that the substantial changes in agricultural practices envisioned in Scenarios 2 and 3 (conversion to conservation tillage, strip intercropping, rotational grazing, conservation set-asides and greatly extended use of best management practices (BMPs) such as riparian buffers, engineered wetlands, grassed waterways, filter strips and field borders) could potentially reduce current loadings of sediment by 37 to 67 percent and nutrients by 54 to 75 percent. Results from the study indicate that major improvements in water quality in these agricultural watersheds could be achieved if such environmentally-targeted agricultural practices were employed. Traditional approaches to water quality improvement through application of traditional BMPs will result in little or no change in nutrient export and minor decreases in sediment export from Corn Belt watersheds. [source] Modeled Effects of Sagebrush-Steppe Restoration on Greater Sage-Grouse in the Interior Columbia Basin, U.S.A.CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2002Michael J. Wisdom Consequently, managers of FS,BLM lands need effective strategies to recover sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitats on which this species depends. In response to this need, we evaluated the potential benefits of two restoration scenarios on Greater Sage-Grouse in the interior Columbia Basin and adjacent portions of the Great Basin of the western United States. Scenario 1 assumed a 50% reduction in detrimental grazing effects (through changes in stocking rates and grazing systems) and a six-fold increase in areas treated with active restoration (e.g., prescribed burning, native seedings, wildfire suppression) compared with future management proposed by the FS,BLM. Scenario 2 assumed a 100% reduction in detrimental grazing effects and the same increase in active restoration as scenario 1. To evaluate benefits, we estimated the risk of population extirpation for sage grouse 100 years in the future under the two scenarios and compared this risk with that estimated for proposed (100-year) FS,BLM management. We used estimates of extirpation risk for historical (circa 1850,1890) and current time periods as a context for our comparison. Under historical conditions, risk of extirpation was very low on FS,BLM lands, but increased to a moderate probability under current conditions. Under proposed FS,BLM management, risk of extirpation on FS,BLM lands increased to a high probability 100 years in the future. Benefits of the two restoration scenarios, however, constrained the future risk of extirpation to a moderate probability. Our results suggest that expansive and sustained habitat restoration can maintain desired conditions and reduce future extirpation risk for sage grouse on FS,BLM lands in western North America. The continued spread of exotic plants, however, presents a formidable challenge to successful restoration and warrants substantial research and management attention. Resumen: Los hábitats del urogallo (Centrocercus urophasianus) han disminuido a lo largo de la región occidental de Norteamérica, y la mayoría de los hábitats restantes ocurren en terrenos administrados por el Servicio Forestal de E.U.A. (SF) y el Buró de Administración de Tierras ( BAT ). Por lo tanto, los encargados de las tierras SF,BAT necesitan estrategias eficaces para recuperar los hábitats de artemisa (Artemisia spp.) de los cuales depende esta especie. En respuesta a esta necesidad, evaluamos los beneficios potenciales de dos escenarios de restauración sobre el urogallo en el interior de la Cuenca del Columbia y porciones adyacentes de la Gran Cuenca del occidente de los Estados Unidos. El escenario 1 supone una reducción del 50% en los efectos perjudiciales del pastoreo ( por medio de cambios en las tasas de aprovisionamiento y en los sistemas de pastoreo) y un incremento de seis veces en la superficie de las áreas tratadas con restauración activa ( por ejemplo, quemas prescritas, plántulas nativas, supresión de fuego no controlado) comparada con la administración futura propuesta por el SF,BAT. El escenario 2 supone una reducción del 100% en los efectos de pastoreo perjudiciales y el mismo aumento en la restauración activa que en el escenario 1. Para evaluar los beneficios, estimamos el riesgo de extirpación de la población de urogallos en 100 años bajo los dos escenarios y comparamos este riesgo con el riesgo estimado por la propuesta de manejo de SF,BAT (100-años). Utilizamos estimaciones del riesgo de extirpación en períodos históricos (entre 1850 y 1890) y actuales como contexto para nuestra comparación. Bajo condiciones históricas, el riesgo de extirpación fue muy bajo en los terrenos SF,BAT pero aumentó a una probabilidad moderada bajo condiciones actuales. Bajo la administración propuesta por SF,BAT, el riesgo de extirpación en los terrenos SF,BAT aumentó a una alta probabilidad 100 años en el futuro. Sin embargo, los beneficios de los dos escenarios de restauración constriñen el riesgo de extirpación a una probabilidad moderada. Nuestros resultados sugieren que la restauración expansiva y sostenida del hábitat puede mantener condiciones deseadas y reduce el riesgo de extirpación de urogallos en terrenos SF,BAT en la región occidental de Norteamérica. Sin embargo, la continua extensión de plantas exóticas representa un reto formidable para la restauración exitosa y justifica considerable investigación y atención de manejo. [source] Mitigation of Electromagnetic Instabilities in Fast Ignition ScenarioCONTRIBUTIONS TO PLASMA PHYSICS, Issue 3-4 2005C. Deutsch Abstract We address the issues of collective stopping for intense relativistic electron beams (REB) used to selectively ignite precompressed deuterium + tritium (DT) fuels. We investigate the subtle interplay of electron collisions in target as well as in beam plasmas with quasi-linear electromagnetic growth rates. Intrabeam scattering is found effective in taming those instabilities, in particular for high transverse temperatures. (© 2005 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) [source] The rise of research on futures in ecology: rebalancing scenarios and predictionsECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 12 2009Audrey Coreau Abstract Concern about the ecological consequences of global change has increasingly stimulated ecologists to examine the futures of ecological systems. Studying futures is not only a crucial element of the interaction between science, management and decision making, but also a critical research challenge per se, especially because futures cannot be observed or experimented on. In addition, researchers can encounter methodological and theoretical difficulties, which make interpretations and predictions problematic. In the literature which deals with futures of ecological systems two main lines of research can be distinguished: a predictive approach, which dominates the literature, can be contrasted with a rarer number of studies that elaborate potential scenarios for ecological systems. Scenario approaches currently concern mainly contacts with stakeholders or decision makers, or the use of climate scenarios to derive projections about ecological futures. We argue that a new direction for ecological futures research could be explored by using ecological scenarios in combination with predictive models to further fundamental ecological research, in addition to enhancing its applied value. Ecology Letters (2009) 12: 1277,1286 [source] A New Scenario in Probe Local Oxidation: Transient Pressure-Wave-Assisted Ionic Spreading and Oxide Pattern Formation,ADVANCED MATERIALS, Issue 18 2007N. Xie A new mechanism based on transient shock-wave-assisted lateral ionic spreading and oxide growth is reported for atomic force microscopy probe local oxidation (see figure). Transitory high pressure waves generated in the nanoscopic tip,sample junction significantly extend the distribution of hydroxyl oxidants to facilitate micrometer-scale disk-oxide growth on a silicon substrate. The results show that shock propagation may be a general phenomenon in AFM nanolithography. [source] SOUTH AFRICA: Job ScenarioAFRICA RESEARCH BULLETIN: ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL AND TECHNICAL SERIES, Issue 1 2009Article first published online: 9 MAR 200 No abstract is available for this article. [source] Comparison of the metabolic and economic consequences of long-term treatment of schizophrenia using ziprasidone, olanzapine, quetiapine and risperidone in Canada: a cost-effectiveness analysisJOURNAL OF EVALUATION IN CLINICAL PRACTICE, Issue 4 2010Roger S. McIntyre MD FRCPC Abstract Rationale, aims and objectives, Second-generation antipsychotic agents have varying propensities to cause weight gain, elevated lipid levels and associated long-term complications. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of four second-generation antipsychotic agents used in Canada for the treatment of schizophrenia (ziprasidone, olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone) with a focus on their long-term metabolic consequences. Method, Using data from the Clinical Antipsychotic Trials of Intervention Effectiveness Study, a semi-Markov model was developed to predict the incidence and associated costs of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular complications (e.g. angina, myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular disease death), and acute psychiatric hospitalizations in patients with chronic schizophrenia treated over 5 years. Incremental costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained were calculated from the perspective of the Canadian provincial ministries of health. Scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results, The total average cost of treatment with ziprasidone was $25 301 versus $28 563 with olanzapine, $26 233 with quetiapine and $21 831 with risperidone. Ziprasidone had the lowest predicted number of type 2 diabetes cases and cardiovascular disease events, and the highest QALY gains. Patients receiving quetiapine had the highest predicted number of hospitalizations. Ziprasidone was less costly and resulted in more QALYs compared with olanzapine and quetiapine. Compared with risperidone, ziprasidone was more costly and had higher QALYs, with an incremental cost per QALY gained of $218 060. Conclusion, Compared with olanzapine and quetiapine, ziprasidone produced savings to the health care system. Although ziprasidone generated incremental expenditures versus risperidone, it resulted in more QALYs. Based on this analysis, ziprasidone treatment possesses cost and therapeutic advantages compared with olanzapine and quetiapine. [source] Life-Cycle Assessment of Biosolids Processing OptionsJOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2001Gregory M. Peters Summary Biosolids, also known as sewage sludge, are reusable organic materials separated from sewage during treatment. They can be managed in a variety of ways. Different options for biosolids handling in Sydney, Australia, are compared in this study using life-cycle assessment. Two key comparisons are made: of system scenarios (scenario 1 is local dewatering and lime amendment; scenario 2 is a centralized drying system) and of technologies (thermal drying versus lime amendment). The environmental issues addressed are energy consumption, global warming potential (GWP), and human toxicity potential (HTP). Scenario 2 would consume 24% more energy than scenario 1. This is due to the additional electricity for pumping and particularly the petrochemical methane that supplements biogas in the drier. A centralized system using the same technologies as scenario 1 has approximately the same impacts. The GWP and HTP of the different scenarios do not differ significantly. The assessment of technology choices shows significant differences. The ample supply of endogenous biogas at North Head sewage treatment plant for the drying option allows reductions, relative to the lime-amendment option, of 68% in energy consumption, 45% in GWP, and 23% in HTP. Technology choices have more significant influence on the environmental profile of biosolids processing than does the choice of system configurations. Controlling variables for environmental improvement are the selection of biogas fuel, avoidance of coalsourced electrical energy, minimization of trucking distances, and raising the solids content of biosolids products. [source] Social Optimal Location of Facilities with Fixed Servers, Stochastic Demand, and CongestionPRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT, Issue 6 2009Ignacio Castillo We consider two capacity choice scenarios for the optimal location of facilities with fixed servers, stochastic demand, and congestion. Motivating applications include virtual call centers, consisting of geographically dispersed centers, walk-in health clinics, motor vehicle inspection stations, automobile emissions testing stations, and internal service systems. The choice of locations for such facilities influences both the travel cost and waiting times of users. In contrast to most previous research, we explicitly embed both customer travel/connection and delay costs in the objective function and solve the location,allocation problem and choose facility capacities simultaneously. The choice of capacity for a facility that is viewed as a queueing system with Poisson arrivals and exponential service times could mean choosing a service rate for the servers (Scenario 1) or choosing the number of servers (Scenario 2). We express the optimal service rate in closed form in Scenario 1 and the (asymptotically) optimal number of servers in closed form in Scenario 2. This allows us to eliminate both the number of servers and the service rates from the optimization problems, leading to tractable mixed-integer nonlinear programs. Our computational results show that both problems can be solved efficiently using a Lagrangian relaxation optimization procedure. [source] The application of subliminal priming in lie detection: Scenario for identification of members of a terrorist ringPSYCHOPHYSIOLOGY, Issue 4 2009Ming Lui Abstract We studied a lie detection protocol immune to countermeasures. The 4 stimulus conditions were (1 and 2) supraliminal acquaintance name primed by subliminal acquaintance name (A-A) versus subliminal nonacquaintance name (N-A) and (3 and 4) supraliminal nonacquaintance name primed by subliminal acquaintance name (A-N) versus subliminal nonacquaintance name (N-N). In Experiment 1 and replication, principal components analysis-derived event-related potential components revealed significant differences between dishonestly answered supraliminal acquaintance conditions with differing primes (A-A vs. N-A). In Experiment 2 subjects were required to lie in A-N and N-N conditions, in contrast to Experiment 1, in which subjects lied in A-A and N-A conditions. No significant effects were found. In Experiment 3, the lying task was removed and no significant differences were found. We conclude that subliminal primes modulate ERPs in conditions with supraliminal acquaintance name when the task involves lying. [source] Pakistan's Foreign Policy in the Changing International ScenarioTHE MUSLIM WORLD, Issue 2 2006Adnan Sarwar Khan First page of article [source] Intermethod Reliability of Real-time Versus Delayed Videotaped Evaluation of a High-fidelity Medical Simulation Septic Shock ScenarioACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE, Issue 9 2009Justin B. Williams MD Abstract Objectives:, High-fidelity medical simulation (HFMS) is increasingly utilized in resident education and evaluation. No criterion standard of assessing performance currently exists. This study compared the intermethod reliability of real-time versus videotaped evaluation of HFMS participant performance. Methods:, Twenty-five emergency medicine residents and one transitional resident participated in a septic shock HFMS scenario. Four evaluators assessed the performance of participants on technical (26-item yes/no completion) and nontechnical (seven item, five-point Likert scale assessment) scorecards. Two evaluators provided assessment in real time, and two provided delayed videotape review. After 13 scenarios, evaluators crossed over and completed the scenarios in the opposite method. Real-time evaluations were completed immediately at the end of the simulation; videotape reviewers were allowed to review the scenarios with no time limit. Agreement between raters was tested using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), with Cronbach's alpha used to measure consistency among items on the scores on the checklists. Results:, Bland-Altman plot analysis of both conditions revealed substantial agreement between the real-time and videotaped review scores by reviewers. The mean difference between the reviewers was 0.0 (95% confidence interval [CI] = ,3.7 to 3.6) on the technical evaluation and ,1.6 (95% CI = ,11.4 to 8.2) on the nontechnical scorecard assessment. Comparison of evaluations for the videotape technical scorecard demonstrated a Cronbach's alpha of 0.914, with an ICC of 0.842 (95% CI = 0.679 to 0.926), and the real-time technical scorecard demonstrated a Cronbach's alpha of 0.899, with an ICC of 0.817 (95% CI = 0.633 to 0.914), demonstrating excellent intermethod reliability. Comparison of evaluations for the videotape nontechnical scorecard demonstrated a Cronbach's alpha of 0.888, with an ICC of 0.798 (95% CI = 0.600 to 0.904), and the real-time nontechnical scorecard demonstrated a Cronbach's alpha of 0.833, with an ICC of 0.714 (95% CI = 0.457 to 0.861), demonstrating substantial interrater reliability. The raters were consistent in agreement on performance within each level of training, as the analysis of variance demonstrated no significant differences between the technical scorecard (p = 0.176) and nontechnical scorecard (p = 0.367). Conclusions:, Real-time and videotaped-based evaluations of resident performance of both technical and nontechnical skills during an HFMS septic shock scenario provided equally reliable methods of assessment. [source] Hybrid Simulation Combining a High Fidelity Scenario with a Pelvic Ultrasound Task Trainer Enhances the Training and Evaluation of Endovaginal Ultrasound SkillsACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE, Issue 5 2009Daniel V. Girzadas Jr MD Abstract Objectives:, In this study, an endovaginal ultrasound (US) task trainer was combined with a high-fidelity US mannequin to create a hybrid simulation model. In a scenario depicting a patient with ectopic pregnancy and hemorrhagic shock, this model was compared with a standard high-fidelity simulation during training sessions with emergency medicine (EM) residents. The authors hypothesized that use of the hybrid model would increase both the residents' self-reported educational experience and the faculty's self-reported ability to evaluate the residents' skills. Methods:, A total of 45 EM residents at two institutions were randomized into two groups. Each group was assigned to one of two formats involving an ectopic pregnancy scenario. One format incorporated the new hybrid model, in which residents had to manipulate an endovaginal US probe in a task trainer; the other used the standard high-fidelity simulation mannequin together with static photo images. After finishing the scenario, residents self-rated their overall learning experience and how well the scenario evaluated their ability to interpret endovaginal US images. Faculty members reviewed video recordings of the other institution's residents and rated their own ability to evaluate residents' skills in interpreting endovaginal US images and diagnosing and managing the case scenario. Visual analog scales (VAS) were used for the self-ratings. Results:, Compared to the residents assigned to the standard simulation scenario, residents assigned to the hybrid model reported an increase in their overall educational experience (, VAS = 10, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4 to 18) and felt the hybrid model was a better measure of their ability to interpret endovaginal US images (, VAS = 17, 95% CI = 7 to 28). Faculty members found the hybrid model to be better than the standard simulation for evaluating residents' skills in interpreting endovaginal US images (, VAS = 13, 95% CI = 6 to 20) and diagnosing and managing the case (, VAS = 10, 95% CI = 2 to 18). Time to reach a diagnosis was similar in both groups (p = 0.053). Conclusions:, Use of a hybrid simulation model combining a high-fidelity simulation with an endovaginal US task trainer improved residents' educational experience and improved faculty's ability to evaluate residents' endovaginal US and clinical skills. This novel hybrid tool should be considered for future education and evaluation of EM residents. [source] Estimating personal costs incurred by a woman participating in mammography screening in the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program,,CANCER, Issue 3 2008Donatus U. Ekwueme PhD Abstract BACKGROUND. The National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP) covers the direct clinical costs of breast and cervical cancer screening and diagnostic follow-up for medically underserved, low-income women. Personal costs are not covered. In this report, the authors estimated personal costs per woman participating in NBCCEDP mammography screening by race/ethnicity and also estimated lifetime personal costs (ages 50-74 years). METHODS. A decision analysis model was constructed and parameterized by using empiric data from a retrospective cohort survey of mammography rescreening among women ages 50 years to 64 years who participated in the NBCCEDP. Data from 1870 women were collected from 1999 to 2000. The model simulated the flow of resources incurred by a woman participating in the NBCCEDP. The analysis was stratified by annual income into 2 scenarios: Scenario 1, <$10,000; and Scenario 2, from $10,000 to <$20,000. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to appraise uncertainty, and all costs were standardized to 2000 U.S. dollars. RESULTS. In Scenario 1, for all races/ethnicities, a woman incurred a 1-time cost of $17 and a discounted lifetime cost of $108 for 10 screens and $262 for 25 screens; in Scenario 2, these amounts were $31 and from $197 to $475, respectively. In both scenarios, a non-Hispanic white woman incurred the highest cost. The sensitivity analyses revealed that >70% of cost incurred was attributable to opportunity cost. CONCLUSIONS. Capturing and quantifying personal costs will help ascertain the total cost (ie, societal cost) of providing mammography screening to a medically underserved, low-income woman participating in a publicly funded cancer screening program and, thus, will help determine the true cost-effectiveness of such programs. Cancer 2008. Published 2008 by the American Cancer Society. [source] The Infant as Onlooker: Learning From Emotional Reactions Observed in a Television ScenarioCHILD DEVELOPMENT, Issue 1 2003Donna L. Mumme Two studies investigated whether 10, and 12,month,olds can use televised emotional reactions to guide their behavior. Infants watched an actress orient toward 1 of 2 novel objects and react with neutral affect during baseline and with positive or negative affect during test. Infants then had 30 s to interact with the objects. In Study 1, 12,month,olds (N = 32) avoided the target object and showed increases in negative affect after observing the negative,emotion scenario. Twelve,month,olds' responses to positive vs. neutral signals did not differ significantly. In Study 2, 10,month,olds (N = 32) attended to the televised presentations but showed no consistent changes in their object interactions or affect. Thus, 12,month,olds used social information presented on television and associated emotional signals with the intended target. [source] From introduction to the establishment of alien species: bioclimatic differences between presence and reproduction localities in the slider turtleDIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 1 2009Gentile Francesco Ficetola ABSTRACT Aim, Understanding the factors determining the transition from introduction of aliens to the establishment of invasive populations is a critical issue of the study of biological invasions, and has key implications for management. Differences in fitness among areas of introduction can define the zones where aliens become invasive. The American slider turtle Trachemys scripta has been introduced worldwide, and has negative effects on freshwater communities, but only a subset of introduced populations breed successfully. We used species distribution models to assess the factors influencing the slider distribution in Italy, by analysing bioclimatic features that can cause the transition from presence of feral adults to breeding populations. We also evaluated whether climate change might increase the future suitability for reproduction. Location,, Central and Northern Italy. Methods,, The distribution of slider turtle was obtained from the literature, unpublished reports and field surveys. We used Maxent to build bioclimatic models. Results,, Reproductive populations are associated to a clear bioclimatic envelope with warmer climate, more solar radiation and higher precipitations than populations where reproduction is not observed. Several Mediterranean areas currently have climatic features suitable for sliders. Scenarios of climate change predict the expansion of these areas. In the near future (2020), the proportion of populations in areas suitable for reproduction will dramatically increase. Main conclusion,, Our study shows that bioclimatic differences can determine the areas where aliens become invaders. Management should be focused to these source areas. However, climate change can increase fitness in the future, and therefore the interactions between climate change and fitness can boost the invasiveness of this alien species. [source] Optimizing triage consistency in Australian emergency departments: The Emergency Triage Education KitEMERGENCY MEDICINE AUSTRALASIA, Issue 3 2008Marie Frances Gerdtz Abstract Objective: The Emergency Triage Education Kit was designed to optimize consistency of triage using the Australasian Triage Scale. The present study was conducted to determine the interrater reliability of a set of scenarios for inclusion in the programme. Methods: A postal survey of 237 paper-based triage scenarios was utilized. A quota sample of triage nurses (n = 42) rated each scenario using the Australasian Triage Scale. The scenarios were analysed for concordance and agreement. The criterion for inclusion of the scenarios in the programme was , , 0.6. Results: Data were collected during 2 April to 14 May 2007. Agreement for the set was , = 0.412 (95% CI 0.410,0.415). Of the initial set: 92/237 (38.8%, 95% CI 32.6,45.3) showed concordance ,70% to the modal triage category (, = 0.632, 95% CI 0.629,0.636) and 155/237 (65.4%, 95% CI 59.3,71.5) showed concordance ,60% to the modal triage category (, = 0.507, 95% CI 0.504,0.510). Scenarios involving mental health and pregnancy presentations showed lower levels of agreement (, = 0.243, 95% CI 0.237,0.249; , = 0.319, 95% CI 0.310,0.328). Conclusion: All scenarios that showed good levels of agreement have been included in the Emergency Triage Education Kit and are recommended for testing purposes; those that showed moderate agreement have been incorporated for teaching purposes. Both scenario sets are accompanied by explanatory notes that link the decision outcome to the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine Guidelines on the Implementation of the Australasian Triage Scale. Future analysis of the scenarios is required to identify how task-related factors influence consistency of triage. [source] Will climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America?GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 8 2008Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models Abstract Climate change may dramatically affect the distribution and abundance of organisms. With the world's population size expected to increase significantly during the next 100 years, we need to know how climate change might impact our food production systems. In particular, we need estimates of how future climate might alter the distribution of agricultural pests. We used the climate projections from two general circulation models (GCMs) of global climate, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre model (HadCM3), for the A2 and B2 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in conjunction with a previously published bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) to predict the potential changes in distribution and abundance of the swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii, in North America. The BEM in conjunction with either GCM predicted that C. nasturtii would spread from its current initial invasion in southern Ontario and northwestern New York State into the Canadian prairies, northern Canada, and midwestern United States, but the magnitude of risk depended strongly on the GCM and the scenario used. When the CGCM2 projections were used, the BEM predicted an extensive shift in the location of the midges' climatic envelope through most of Ontario, Quebec, and the maritime and prairie provinces by the 2080s. In the United States, C. nasturtii was predicted to spread to all the Great Lake states, into midwestern states as far south as Colorado, and west into Washington State. When the HadCM3 was applied, southern Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Washington State were not as favourable for C. nasturtii by the 2080s. Indeed, when used with the HadCM3 climate projections, the BEM predicted the virtual disappearance of ,very favourable' regions for C. nasturtii. The CGCM2 projections generally caused the BEM to predict a small increase in the mean number of midge generations throughout the course of the century, whereas, the HadCM3 projections resulted in roughly the same mean number of generations but decreased variance. Predictions of the likely potential of C. nasturtii spatial spread are thus strongly dependent on the source of climate projections. This study illustrates the importance of using multiple GCMs in combination with multiple scenarios when studying the potential for spatial spread of an organism in response to climate change. [source] Projecting future N2O emissions from agricultural soils in BelgiumGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2007CAROLINE ROELANDT Abstract This study analyses the spatial and temporal variability of N2O emissions from the agricultural soils of Belgium. Annual N2O emission rates are estimated with two statistical models, MCROPS and MGRASS, which take account of the impact of changes in land use, climate, and nitrogen-fertilization rate. The models are used to simulate the temporal trend of N2O emissions between 1990 and 2050 for a 10, latitude and longitude grid. The results are also aggregated to the regional and national scale to facilitate comparison with other studies and national inventories. Changes in climate and land use are derived from the quantitative scenarios developed by the ATEAM project based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) storylines. The average N2O flux for Belgium was estimated to be 8.6 × 106 kg N2O-N yr,1 (STD = 2.1 × 106 kg N2O-N yr,1) for the period 1990,2000. Fluxes estimated for a single year (1996) give a reasonable agreement with published results at the national and regional scales for the same year. The scenario-based simulations of future N2O emissions show the strong influence of land-use change. The scenarios A1FI, B1 and B2 produce similar results between 2001 and 2050 with a national emission rate in 2050 of 11.9 × 106 kg N2O-N yr,1. The A2 scenario, however, is very sensitive to the reduction in agricultural land areas (,14% compared with the 1990 baseline), which results in a reduced emission rate in 2050 of 8.3 × 106 kg N2O-N yr,1. Neither the climatic change scenarios nor the reduction in nitrogen fertilization rate could explain these results leading to the conclusion that N2O emissions from Belgian agricultural soils will be more markedly affected by changes in agricultural land areas. [source] Importance of changing CO2, temperature, precipitation, and ozone on carbon and water cycles of an upland-oak forest: incorporating experimental results into model simulationsGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 9 2005Paul J. Hanson Abstract Observed responses of upland-oak vegetation of the eastern deciduous hardwood forest to changing CO2, temperature, precipitation and tropospheric ozone (O3) were derived from field studies and interpreted with a stand-level model for an 11-year range of environmental variation upon which scenarios of future environmental change were imposed. Scenarios for the year 2100 included elevated [CO2] and [O3] (+385 ppm and +20 ppb, respectively), warming (+4°C), and increased winter precipitation (+20% November,March). Simulations were run with and without adjustments for experimentally observed physiological and biomass adjustments. Initial simplistic model runs for single-factor changes in CO2 and temperature predicted substantial increases (+191% or 508 g C m,2 yr,1) or decreases (,206% or ,549 g C m,2 yr,1), respectively, in mean annual net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEEa,266±23 g C m,2 yr,1 from 1993 to 2003). Conversely, single-factor changes in precipitation or O3 had comparatively small effects on NEEa (0% and ,35%, respectively). The combined influence of all four environmental changes yielded a 29% reduction in mean annual NEEa. These results suggested that future CO2 -induced enhancements of gross photosynthesis would be largely offset by temperature-induced increases in respiration, exacerbation of water deficits, and O3 -induced reductions in photosynthesis. However, when experimentally observed physiological adjustments were included in the simulations (e.g. acclimation of leaf respiration to warming), the combined influence of the year 2100 scenario resulted in a 20% increase in NEEa not a decrease. Consistent with the annual model's predictions, simulations with a forest succession model run for gradually changing conditions from 2000 to 2100 indicated an 11% increase in stand wood biomass in the future compared with current conditions. These model-based analyses identify critical areas of uncertainty for multivariate predictions of future ecosystem response, and underscore the importance of long term field experiments for the evaluation of acclimation and growth under complex environmental scenarios. [source] Do dams and levees impact nitrogen cycling?GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 8 2005Simulating the effects of flood alterations on floodplain denitrification Abstract A fundamental challenge in understanding the global nitrogen cycle is the quantification of denitrification on large heterogeneous landscapes. Because floodplains are important sites for denitrification and nitrogen retention, we developed a generalized floodplain biogeochemical model to determine whether dams and flood-control levees affect floodplain denitrification by altering floodplain inundation. We combined a statistical model of floodplain topography with a model of hydrology and nitrogen biogeochemistry to simulate floods of different magnitude. The model predicted substantial decreases in NO3 -N processing on floodplains whose overbank floods have been altered by levees and upstream dams. Our simulations suggest that dams may reduce nitrate processing more than setback levees. Levees increased areal floodplain denitrification rates, but this effect was offset by a reduction in the area inundated. Scenarios that involved a levee also resulted in more variability in N processing among replicate floodplains. Nitrate loss occurred rapidly and completely in our model floodplains. As a consequence, total flood volume and the initial mass of nitrate reaching a floodplain may provide reasonable estimates of total N processing on floodplains during floods. This finding suggests that quantifying the impact of dams and levees on floodplain denitrification may be possible using recent advances in remote sensing of floodplain topography and flood stage. Furthermore, when considering flooding over the long-term, the cumulative N processed by frequent smaller floods was estimated to be quite large relative to that processed by larger, less frequent floods. Our results suggest that floodplain denitrification may be greatly influenced by the pervasive anthropogenic flood-control measures that currently exist on most majors river floodplains throughout the world, and may have the potential to be impacted by future changes in flood probabilities that will likely occur as a result of climate shifts. [source] Evidence-Based Diagnosis of Nontraumatic Headache in the Emergency Department: A Consensus Statement on Four Clinical ScenariosHEADACHE, Issue 6 2004Pietro Cortelli MD Objective.,To provide to emergency department (ED) physicians with guidelines for diagnosis of patients with nontraumatic headaches. Background.,Many patients present to an ED with the chief complaint of headache. Causes of nontraumatic headache include life-threatening illnesses, and distinguishing patients with such ominous headaches from those with a primary headache disorder can be challenging for the ED physician. Conclusion.,We present a consensus statement aimed to be a useful tool for ED doctors in making evidence-based diagnostic decisions in the management of adult patients with nontraumatic headache. Methods.,A multidisciplinary work performed an extensive review of the medical literature and applied the information obtained to commonly encountered scenarios in the ED. [source] Using a fluctuating tracer to estimate hyporheic exchange in restored and unrestored reaches of the Truckee River, Nevada, USAHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 8 2009Andrew E. Knust Abstract The goal of this research was to compare hyporheic activity in recently restored and adjacent un-restored reaches of the Truckee River downstream from the Reno/Sparks metropolitan area. The installation of rocky riffles and raised channel bed elevations in the restored reaches may have increased the degree of surface,subsurface interaction. A fluctuating chloride concentration signal served as the tracer, induced by the variable influx of higher salinity water several miles upstream from the study reach. The solute transport model, OTIS, was used in conjunction with the hydrodynamic model, DYNHYD5, to estimate transient storage parameters under unsteady flow conditions. The model was calibrated to chloride concentrations measured over a period of three days at six in-stream locations representing restored and un-restored reaches. An automated parameter estimation algorithm (SCE-UA) was used to optimize parameters for multiple reaches simultaneously and generate a distribution of parameter estimates. Results suggest that the transient storage zone cross-sectional area (As) is larger in the restored reaches than in the unrestored reaches, but the exchange coefficient (,) is smaller, leading to increased hyporheic residence time and hydrologic retention in the vicinity of channel reconstructions. Scenarios were used to simulate the potential effects of increased subsurface residence time on denitrification and in-stream NO3 -N concentrations. Monte Carlo analysis was performed to assess uncertainty in the simulation results and show the potential for greater nutrient retention in the lower Truckee River as a result of channel restoration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Estimating the evolution of vegetation cover and its hydrological impact in the Mekong River basin in the 21st centuryHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 9 2008Hiroshi Ishidaira Abstract The terrestrial biosphere plays a key role in regional energy and water cycles. Thus, for long-term hydrological predictions, possible future changes in vegetation cover must be understood. This study examined the evolution of vegetation cover in the 21st century and its estimated impact on river discharge in the Mekong River basin. Based on climatic predictions (TYN SC 2·03) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, changes in vegetation type and the leaf area index (LAI) were simulated using a Lund-Potsdam-Jena-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) and Terrestrial Biogeochemical Cycle Model (BIOME-BGC). The estimated LAI was then used in the rainfall-runoff analysis in the Yamanashi Distributed Hydrological Model (YHyM). The simulation results indicated a significant change in vegetation type mainly on the Tibetan Plateau and in mountainous areas, with the degree of change differing for each SRES scenario; LAI increases around the edge of the Tibetan Plateau and decreases in the lower reaches of the basin; and more conspicuous changes in river discharge in upstream areas than in the middle to lower reaches, mainly due to increases in precipitation in the plateau region. After the 2050s, the results suggested changes in river discharge will be slowed due to changes in evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Global potential soil erosion with reference to land use and climate changesHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 14 2003Dawen Yang Abstract A GIS-based RUSLE model is employed to study the global soil erosion potential for viewing the present situation, analysing changes over the past century, and projecting future trends with reference to global changes in land use and climate. Scenarios considered in the study include historical, present and future conditions of cropland and climate. This research gives the first overview of the global situation of soil erosion potential considering the previous century as well as the present and future. Present soil erosion potential is estimated to be about 0·38 mm year,1 for the globe, with Southeast Asia found to be the most seriously affected region in the world. It is estimated that nearly 60% of present soil erosions are induced by human activity. With development of cropland in the last century, soil erosion potential is estimated to have increased by about 17%. Global warming might significantly increase the potential for soil erosion, and the regions with the same increasing trend of precipitation and population might face much more serious problems related to soil erosion in the future. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Downscaled GCM projections of winter and summer mass balance for Peyto Glacier, Alberta, Canada (2000,2100) from ensemble simulations with ECHAM5-MPIOMINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2009Christoph Matulla Abstract We apply a direct downscaling approach to generate ensembles of local-scale glacier mass balance projections from coarse-scale general circulation model (GCM) data. The general modes of the atmospheric circulation over a large geographical region are linked statistically to Peyto Glacier's winter and summer balance separately. Our study focuses on the generation of ensemble projections derived from simulations with ECHAM5-MPIOM forced with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A1B and B1. The resulting ensembles of mass balance projections show a moderate increase in winter balance and a steep decrease in summer balance. Together these results suggest continued frontal recession and downwasting of Peyto Glacier and a shift of the equilibrium line altitude by at least 100 m above that estimated for the 1966,2001 period suggesting that very little of the glacier will remain by 2100. Copyright © 2008 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] In-depth analysis of the satellite component of DVB-SH: Scenarios, system dimensioning, simulations and field trial resultsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKING, Issue 4-5 2009Ana Bolea Alamanac Abstract This paper presents a first-step validation of the satellite component of DVB-SH obtained by simulations and preliminary on-field measurements. It is hoped that the results presented will be useful to system designers. The methodology and results presented are expected to be further consolidated by additional on-field trials with recently launched and soon to be launched commercial S-band GEO satellites dedicated to DVB-SH. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Using Role-Play Scenarios in the IR Classroom: An Examination of Exercises on Peacekeeping Operations and Foreign Policy Decision MakingINTERNATIONAL STUDIES PERSPECTIVES, Issue 1 2004Carolyn M. Shaw Use of role-play scenarios in the classroom is just one of a number of active learning techniques that are being used more and more frequently to convey the more abstract concepts of international relations (IR) to students in a meaningful way. This paper examines the value of two specific role-play exercises used in an introduction to international relations course on the topics of peacekeeping and foreign policy decision making. The value of such interactive exercises is laid out in a section examining what learning objectives can be achieved by using role-play scenarios. These include promoting student interaction and input, and promoting student curiosity and creativity. The preparations necessary for conducting such an exercise are laid out, followed by a description of the exercises as they were conducted in the classroom. Finally, an assessment of the exercises provides useful feedback on the degree to which specific learning objectives were achieved, and how such exercises can be modified to be even more effective. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||