Risk Analysis (risk + analysis)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Distribution within Life Sciences

Kinds of Risk Analysis

  • competing risk analysis


  • Selected Abstracts


    PM 8/2(1): Coniferae

    EPPO BULLETIN, Issue 3 2009
    Article first published online: 27 NOV 200
    Specific scope The purpose of the EPPO Standard on Coniferae is to recommend to EPPO Member Governments the phytosanitary measures, which they should use or require for Coniferae plants and plant products moving in international trade, to prevent the introduction and spread of regulated pests. Certain of these recommendations are addressed to all EPPO Member Governments, others are addressed only to countries considered to face a certain level of risk from the introduction and spread of the pests recommended for regulation concerned. These recommendations are derived: ,,from the EPPO Standards PM 1/2 (EPPO A1 and A2 lists) ,,from the former EPPO standard PM 2 (pest-specific phytosanitary measures) (which was withdrawn in 2006 by the Working Party on Phytosanitary Regulations) ,,from Pest Risk Analysis ,,from the Working Party on Phytosanitary Regulations ,,from the ISPM n°15 ,Guidelines for regulating wood packaging material in international trade'. Specific approval and amendment Approved in 2009-09. [source]


    Demographic Issues in Longevity Risk Analysis

    JOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE, Issue 4 2006
    Eric Stallard
    Fundamental to the modeling of longevity risk is the specification of the assumptions used in demographic forecasting models that are designed to project past experience into future years, with or without modifications based on expert opinion about influential factors not represented in the historical data. Stochastic forecasts are required to explicitly quantify the uncertainty of forecasted cohort survival functions, including uncertainty due to process variance, parameter errors, and model misspecification errors. Current applications typically ignore the latter two sources although the potential impact of model misspecification errors is substantial. Such errors arise from a lack of understanding of the nature and causes of historical changes in longevity and the implications of these factors for the future. This article reviews the literature on the nature and causes of historical changes in longevity and recent efforts at deterministic and stochastic forecasting based on these data. The review reveals that plausible alternative sets of forecasting assumptions have been derived from the same sets of historical data, implying that further methodological development will be needed to integrate the various assumptions into a single coherent forecasting model. Illustrative calculations based on existing forecasts indicate that the ranges of uncertainty for older cohorts' survival functions will be at a manageable level. Uncertainty ranges for younger cohorts will be larger and the need for greater precision will likely motivate further model development. [source]


    Institutional Racism, Pre-Emptive Criminalisation and Risk Analysis

    THE HOWARD JOURNAL OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE, Issue 2 2007
    DIANA WENDY FITZGIBBON
    It is argued that a framework for the analysis of discrimination can be usefully constructed in terms of the relationship between the processes of pre-emptive criminalisation, institutional racism and risk analysis. [source]


    Long-term field studies: positive impacts and unintended consequences

    AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PRIMATOLOGY, Issue 9 2010
    Karen B. Strier
    Abstract Long-term field studies of wild primates can have far-reaching impacts that transcend their contributions to science. These impacts can benefit not only the study animals, study areas, and local human communities, but they can also have unintended, potentially negative consequences. Examples of some of the positive impacts from the Northern Muriqui Project of Caratinga, in Minas Gerais, Brazil, include contributions to conservation efforts on behalf of this critically endangered species, capacity building through the training of Brazilian students, and employment opportunities for local people through our collaboration with a locally administered NGO that is facilitating ecotourism, education, and reforestation programs. Some concerns about unintended consequences of the research include the effects of our trails and trail traffic on surrounding vegetation and other aspects of the environmental "footprints" that both long-term researchers and short-term visitors may leave. In addition, although precautions against potential health risks from routine exposure to human observers are now standard protocol, little is known about the other ways in which our long-term research presence can affect the primates' experiences or alter their perceptions of their social and ecological environments. Risk analysis, which weighs both the positive and negative impacts can provide useful perspectives for addressing the ethical considerations that can arise during long-term field studies. Am. J. Primatol. 72:772,778, 2010. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source]


    Disease risk analysis: a tool for primate conservation planning and decision making

    AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PRIMATOLOGY, Issue 9 2006
    D.A. Travis
    Abstract Concern about emerging and re-emerging diseases plays an increasing role in conservation and management of both captive and free-ranging nonhuman primates (NHPs). Managers and policy makers must formulate conservation plans in an arena plagued by uncertainty, complexity, emotion, and politics. The risk analysis paradigm provides a framework that brings together scientists and policy experts to make better decisions for both people and animals. Risk analysis is a multidisciplinary, science-based process that provides an organized and logical approach for incorporating scientific information into policy development in the real world. By blending four specific goal-oriented stages,hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication,one can logically assess the probability that an adverse event, such as the introduction of an emerging disease into a naïve population, will occur. The following is a review of this process as it pertains to NHP conservation and risks associated with infectious diseases. Am. J. Primatol. 68:855,867, 2006. © 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source]


    Reducing threats to species: threat reversibility and links to industry

    CONSERVATION LETTERS, Issue 4 2010
    Laura R. Prugh
    Abstract Threats to species' persistence are typically mitigated via lengthy and costly recovery planning processes that are implemented only after species are at risk of extinction. To reduce overall threats and minimize risks to species not yet imperiled, a proactive and broad-scale framework is needed. Using data on threats to imperiled species in Canada to illustrate our approach, we link threats to industries causing the harm, thus providing regulators with quantitative data that can be used directly in cost-benefit and risk analyses to broadly reduce threat levels. We then show how ranking the ease of threat abatement and reversal assists prioritization by identifying threats that are easiest to mitigate as well as threats that are possible to abate but nearly impossible to reverse. This new framework increases the usefulness of widely available threat data for preventative conservation and species recovery. [source]


    Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change

    CONSERVATION LETTERS, Issue 3 2010
    Michael R. Kearney
    Abstract Good forecasts of climate change impacts on extinction risks are critical for effective conservation management responses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are central to extinction risk analyses. The reliability of predictions of SDMs has been questioned because models often lack a mechanistic underpinning and rely on assumptions that are untenable under climate change. We show how integrating predictions from fundamentally different modeling strategies produces robust forecasts of climate change impacts on habitat and population parameters. We illustrate the principle by applying mechanistic (Niche Mapper) and correlative (Maxent, Bioclim) SDMs to predict current and future distributions and fertility of an Australian gliding possum. The two approaches make congruent, accurate predictions of current distribution and similar, dire predictions about the impact of a warming scenario, supporting previous correlative-only predictions for similar species. We argue that convergent lines of independent evidence provide a robust basis for predicting and managing extinctions risks under climate change. [source]


    Cyclone disaster vulnerability and response experiences in coastal Bangladesh

    DISASTERS, Issue 4 2010
    Edris Alam
    For generations, cyclones and tidal surges have frequently devastated lives and property in coastal and island Bangladesh. This study explores vulnerability to cyclone hazards using first-hand coping recollections from prior to, during and after these events. Qualitative field data suggest that, beyond extreme cyclone forces, localised vulnerability is defined in terms of response processes, infrastructure, socially uneven exposure, settlement development patterns, and livelihoods. Prior to cyclones, religious activities increase and people try to save food and valuable possessions. Those in dispersed settlements who fail to reach cyclone shelters take refuge in thatched-roof houses and big-branch trees. However, women and children are affected more despite the modification of traditional hierarchies during cyclone periods. Instinctive survival strategies and intra-community cooperation improve coping post cyclone. This study recommends that disaster reduction programmes encourage cyclone mitigation while being aware of localised realities, endogenous risk analyses, and coping and adaptation of affected communities (as active survivors rather than helpless victims). [source]


    Evaluating extreme risks in invasion ecology: learning from banking compliance

    DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 4 2008
    James Franklin
    ABSTRACT Increasing international trade has exacerbated the risks of ecological damage due to invasive pests and diseases. For extreme events such as invasions of damaging exotic species or natural catastrophes, there are no or very few directly relevant data, so expert opinion must be relied on heavily. Expert opinion must be as fully informed and calibrated as possible , by available data, by other experts, and by the reasoned opinions of stakeholders. We survey a number of quantitative and non-quantitative methods that have shown promise for improving extreme risk analysis, particularly for assessing the risks of invasive pests and pathogens associated with international trade. We describe the legally inspired regulatory regime for banks, where these methods have been brought to bear on extreme ,operational risks'. We argue that an ,advocacy model' similar to that used in the Basel II compliance regime for bank operational risks and to a lesser extent in biosecurity import risk analyses is ideal for permitting the diversity of relevant evidence about invasive species to be presented and soundly evaluated. We recommend that the process be enhanced in ways that enable invasion ecology to make more explicit use of the methods found successful in banking. [source]


    Probabilistic risk assessment of reproductive effects of polychlorinated biphenyls on bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from the Southeast United States coast

    ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY & CHEMISTRY, Issue 12 2002
    Lori H. Schwacke
    Abstract High levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been reported in the tissues of some species of marine mammals. The high concentrations are of concern because a growing body of experimental evidence links PCBs to deleterious effects on reproduction, endocrine homeostasis, and immune system function. Much of the recent research has focused on determining the exposure of marine mammal populations to PCBs, but very little effort has been devoted to the actual risk assessments that are needed to determine the expected impacts of the documented exposures. We describe a novel risk assessment approach that integrates measured tissue concentrations of PCBs with a surrogate dose-response relationship and leads to predictions of health risks for marine mammals as well as to the uncertainties associated with these predictions. Specifically, we use PCB tissue residue data from three populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), study the feasibility of published dose-response data from a surrogate species, and combine this information to estimate the risk of detrimental reproductive effects in female dolphins. Our risk analyses for dolphin populations near Beaufort (NC, USA), Sarasota (FL, USA), and Matagorda Bay (TX, USA) indicate a high likelihood that reproductive success, primarily in primiparous females, is being severely impaired by chronic exposure to PCBs. Excess risk of reproductive failure, measured in terms of stillbirth or neonatal mortality, for primiparous females was estimated as 60% (Beaufort), 79% (Sarasota), and 78% (Matagorda Bay). Females of higher parity, which have previously off-loaded a majority of their PCB burden, exhibit a much lower risk. [source]


    A framework for incorporating climate regime shifts into the management of marine resources

    FISHERIES MANAGEMENT & ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2006
    J. R. KING
    Abstract, It is possible to use an ecosystem-based management approach to incorporate knowledge of climate regime impacts on ecosystem productivity to manage fishery resources. To do so, it requires the development of a coherent framework that can be built using existing stock assessment and management activities: ecosystem assessment, risk analyses, adaptive management and reference points. This paper builds such a framework and uses two population simulations to illustrate the benefits and tradeoffs of variable regime-specific harvest rates. The framework does not require prediction of regime shifts, but assumes that detection can occur soon after one has happened. As such, decisions do not need to be coincident to regime shifts, but can be delayed by an appropriate period of time that is linked to a species' life history, i.e. age of maturity or recruitment. Fisheries scientists should provide harvest recommendations that reflect a range of levels of risk to the stock under different assumptions of productivity. Coupling ecosystem assessment with ecosystem-based management would allow managers to select appropriate regime-specific harvest rates. [source]


    The triggering of debris flow due to channel-bed failure in some alpine headwater basins of the Dolomites: analyses of critical runoff

    HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 13 2008
    C. Gregoretti
    Abstract The debris deposits at the bottom of very steep natural channels and streams in high mountain areas can be mobilized by runoff, triggering a water,sediment mixture flow known as debris flow. The routing of debris flow through human settlements can cause damage to civil structures and loss of human lives. The prediction of such an event, or the runoff discharge that triggers it, assumes an interest in risk analyses and the planning of defence measures. The object of this study is to find a method to determine the critical runoff value that triggers debris flow as a result of channel-bed failure. Historical and rainfall data on 30 debris flows that occurred in six watersheds of the Dolomites (north-eastern Italian Alps) were collected from different sources. Field investigations at the six sites, together with the hydrologic response to the rainfalls that triggered the events, were performed to obtain a realistic scenario of the formation of the debris flow there occurred. Field observations include a survey along the channel of the triggering reach of debris flow, with measurements of the channel slope and cross-section and sampling of debris deposits for grain size distribution. Simulated runoff discharge values based on the rainfall recorded by pluviometers were then compared with values obtained through experimental criteria on the initiation and formation of debris flow by bed failure. The results are discussed to provide a plausible physical-based method for the prediction of the triggering of debris flow by channel-bed failure. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    Importance of implementation and residual risk analyses in sediment remediation

    INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2006
    Richard J Wenning
    Abstract Management strategies for addressing contaminated sediments can include a wide range of actions, ranging from no action, to the use of engineering controls, to the use of more aggressive, intrusive activities related to removing, containing, or treating sediments because of environmental or navigation considerations. Risk assessment provides a useful foundation for understanding the environmental benefits, residual hazards, and engineering limitations of different remedy alternatives and for identifying or ranking management options. This article, part of a series of panel discussion papers on sediment remediation presented at the Third International Conference on Remediation of Contaminated Sediments held 20,25 January 2005 in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, reviews 2 types of risk that deserve careful consideration when evaluating remedy alternatives. The evaluation of remedy implementation risks addresses predominantly short-term engineering issues, such as worker and community health and safety, equipment failures, and accident rates. The evaluation of residual risks addresses predominantly longer-term biological and environmental issues, such as ecological recovery, bioaccumulation, and relative changes in exposure and effects to humans, aquatic biota, and wildlife. Understanding the important pathways for contaminant exposure, the human and wildlife populations potentially at risk, and the possible hazards associated with the implementation of different engineering options will contribute to informed decision making with regard to short- and long-term effectiveness, implementability, and potential environmental hazards. [source]


    Risk modelling in blood safety , review of methods, strengths and limitations

    ISBT SCIENCE SERIES: THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTRACELLULAR TRANSPORT, Issue n1 2010
    B. Custer
    Risk modelling studies in blood safety play an important but occasionally misunderstood role. These studies are intended to quantify and contrast risks and benefits. This information is critical for policy development and intervention decision-making. The limitations of risk modelling should be considered alongside the results obtained. The goal of this manuscript and presentation is to review current risk modelling techniques used in blood safety and to discuss the pros and cons of using this information in the decision-making process. The types of questions that can be answered include the extent of a risk or threat; implications of action or inaction; identification of effective strategies for risk management; or whether to adopt specific interventions. These analyses can be focused on a risk alone but are often combined with economic information to gain an understanding of feasible risk interventions given budgetary or other monetary considerations. Thus, analyses that include risk modelling provide insights along multiple lines. As important, the analyses also provide information on what is not known or uncertain about a potential hazard and how much that uncertainty may influence the decision-making process. Specific examples of the range of risk analyses in which the author has participated will be reviewed and will include ongoing process improvement in testing laboratories such as error identification/eradication, estimation of the risk of malaria exposure based on the specific locations of travel, evaluation of blood supply and demand during an influenza pandemic, cost-utility analyses of screening interventions for infectious diseases in countries with different human development indices, and insurance against emerging pathogen risk. Each of these analyses has a different purpose and seeks to answer different questions, but all rely on similar methods. The tool kit for risk analysis is broad and varied but does have limitations. The chief limitation of risk modelling is that risk analyses are not scientific experiments or otherwise controlled studies. Consequently, the analyses are more apt to be influenced by assumptions. These assumptions may be necessary to structure a problem in a way that will allow the question of interest to be answered or may result from incomplete or missing information. Another potential limitation is that commissioners of such studies, those who undertake them, and the intended audience, such as regulatory agencies, may have distinct and differing interpretations of the results. Risk modelling is a set of techniques that can be used to inform and support decision-making at all levels in transfusion medicine. Advances in risk modelling techniques allow for continued expansion in the scope of possible questions that can be analysed. Expanded use also improves the acceptance of the utility of these studies in blood safety and transfusion medicine. [source]


    A national study on the residential impact of biological aerosols from the land application of biosolids

    JOURNAL OF APPLIED MICROBIOLOGY, Issue 2 2005
    J.P. Brooks
    Abstract Aims:, The purpose of this study was to evaluate the community risk of infection from bioaerosols to residents living near biosolids land application sites. Methods and Results:, Approximately 350 aerosol samples from 10 sites located throughout the USA were collected via the use of six SKC Biosamplers®. Downwind aerosol samples from biosolids loading, unloading, land application and background operations were collected from all sites. All samples were analysed for the presence of HPC bacteria, total coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli, Clostridium perfringens, coliphage, enteroviruses, hepatitis A virus and norovirus. Total coliforms, E. coli, C. perfringens and coliphage were not detected with great frequency from any sites, however, biosolids loading operations resulted in the largest concentrations of these aerosolized microbial indicators. Microbial risk analyses were conducted on loading and land application operations and their subsequent residential exposures determined. Conclusions:, The greatest annual risks of infection occurred during loading operations, and resulted in a 4 × 10,4 chance of infection from inhalation of coxsackievirus A21. Land application of biosolids resulted in risks that were <2 × 10,4 from inhalation of coxsackievirus A21. Overall bioaerosol exposure from biosolids operations poses little community risk based on this study. Significance and Impact of the Study:, This study evaluated the overall incidence of aerosolized micro-organisms from the land application of biosolids and subsequently determined that microbial risks of infection were low for residents close to biosolids application sites. [source]


    Interleukin-1 gene polymorphisms and experimental gingivitis

    JOURNAL OF CLINICAL PERIODONTOLOGY, Issue 2 2003
    Søren Jepsen
    Abstract Background: Recently, an association between the severity of periodontitis and specific variations in the interleukin-1 (IL1) , and , genes has been demonstrated. Aim: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship of the IL1 genotype to the development of experimental gingivitis. Materials and Methods: Twenty young adult subjects presenting with healthy gingival conditions participated after giving their informed consent. The group included 10 risk genotype positive (P+) and 10 risk genotype negative (P,) individuals. The IL1 genotypes were determined on DNA samples from peripheral blood using PCR-RFLP analyses for the IL1, and IL1, polymorphisms. Experimental gingivitis was allowed to develop in two posterior sextants per subject. Bleeding on probing (BOP%) and gingival crevicular fluid volume (GCF) were assessed at baseline and days 2, 7, 9, 14, 16 and 21. The day 21 results for BOP and GCF as well as the rate of increase of these parameters , mean area under the curve (AUC) and mean increase per day (slope) , were evaluated using risk analyses for IL1 genotype, smoking status and gender. Results: Experimental gingivitis developed with a gradual increase in BOP scores and GCF values (expressed as Periotron units=PU) from baseline to day 21 (BOP, P+: 0.5 to 26.0%; P,: 1.0 to 28.1%; GCF, P+: 36.8 to 138.5 PU, P,: 43.1 to 143.4 PU). No significant risk was associated with P+ and P, for day 21 results, AUC or slope. Conclusion: The results of this study failed to provide evidence that the IL1 risk genotype was associated with higher GCF volume and percentage BOP during the development of experimental gingivitis. Zusammenfassung Hintergrund: Kürzlich ist eine Beziehung zwischen dem Schweregrad von Parodontitis und speziellen Varianten der Interleukin-1 (IL1),- und -,-Gene gezeigt worden. Zielsetzung: Untersuchung des Zusammenhanges zwischen dem ILl-Genotyp und der Entwicklung einer experimentellen Gingivitis. Material und Methoden: 20 junge Erwachsene mit gesunden parodontalen Verhältnissen, von denen 10 für den Risikogenotyp positiv (P+) und 10 negativ (P-) waren, nahmen an der Studie teil, nachdem sie ihr Einverständnis dazu gegeben hatten. Die IL1 -Genotypen wurden aus DNS-Proben aus peripherem Blut mittels PCR-RFLP-Analyse auf ILl,- und IL1/,-Polymorphismen untersucht. In 2 Seitenzahnsextanten ließ jeder Proband eine experimentelle Gingivitis entwickeln. Bluten auf Sondieren (BOP%) und Sulkiksfiüssigkeitsvolumen (SFV) wurden zu Beginn der Studie und nach 2, 7, 9, 14, 16 und 21 Tagen bestimmt. Sowohl die Ergebnisse für BOP und SFV an Tag 21 als auch die Zunahme dieser Werte , mittlere Fläche unter der Kurve (AUC) und mittlere Zunahme pro Tag (Steigung) , wurden mittels Risikoanalyse fur IL1 -Genotyp, Rauchen und Gescnlecht bestimmt. Ergebnisse: Die experimentelle Gingivitis entwickelte sich mit einem stetigen Anstieg der BOP- und SFV-Werte (ausgedrückt als Periotroneinheiten=PU) vom Beginn der Studie bis zum 21. Tag (BOP, P+: 0,5% to 26,0%, P-: 1,0% to 28,1%; GCF, P+: 36,8 to 138,5 PU, P-: 43,1 to 143,4 PU). Mit P+und P- war kein signifikantes Risiko für die Werte am 21. Tag, die AUC oder die Steigung verbunden. Schlussfolgerung: Die Ergebnisse dieser Studie konnten keine Beziehung zwischen dem IL1 -Risikogenotype und erhöhtem SFV bzw. Anteil von Stellen mit BOP in % während der Entwicklung einer experimentellen Gingivitis zeigen. Résumé Contexte: Récemment, une association entre la sévérité de la parodontite et des variations spéifiques des gènes codant pour l'interleukin-1 (IL1) , et , a été démontrée. But: Cette étude se propose d'évaluer la relation entre le génotype IL1 dans le developpment de la gingivite expérimentale. Méthods: 20 jeunes sujets adultes présentant une bonne santé gingivale ont participé cette étude après consentement éclairé. Dans ce groupe, il y avait 10 individus à risque positif (P+) et 10 individus à génotype de risque négatif (P,). génotypes lL1 furent déterminés sur des échantillons d'ADN prélevés du sang périphérique par analyse en PCR-RFLP pour les polymorphismes d' IL1, et IL1,. On a laissé se développer une gingivite expérimentale sur 2 sextants postérieurs chez chaque sujet. Le saignement au sondage (BOP%) et le volume de fluide gingival (GCF) furent notes au départ et aux jours 2, 7, 9, 14, 16, et 21. Au vingt et unième jour, les résultats pour BOP et GCF ainsi que le taux d'augmentation de ces paramètres- La surface moyenne sous la courbe (AUC) et l'augmentation moyenne par jour (pente) - furent évalués par analyses du risque pour les génotypes IL1, le tabagisme et le sexe. Résultats: gingivite expérimentale se développa avec une augmentation graduelle des et scores de BOP et des valeurs de GCF (exprimées en unités Periotron=PU) du début de l'étude jusqu'au jour 21 (BOP, P+: 0.5%à 26.0%, P-: 1.0%à 28.1%; GCF, P+: 36.8 à 43.1 à 143.4 PU). Aucun risque significatif ne fut associe avec P+et P-ats à 21 jours, AUC ou la pente. Conclusion: -es résultats de cette étude n'ont pas pu donner de preuves d'associations entre le génotype de risque IL1 et un volume accru de GCF et le % BOP lors du t d'une gingivite expérimentale. [source]


    Spot water markets and risk in water supply

    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2005
    Javier Calatrava
    Water markets; Economic risk; Water availability; Irrigated agriculture Abstract Water availability patterns in semiarid regions are typically extremely variable. Even in basins with a highly developed infrastructure, users are subject to unreliable water supplies, incurring substantial economic losses during periods of scarcity. More flexible instruments, such as voluntary exchanges of water among users, can help users to reduce risk exposure. This article looks at the effects of spot water markets on the economic risk caused by water availability variations. Our theoretical and empirical risk analyses are based on the random profits of water users. Profit probability density functions are formally and graphically characterized for both water sellers and buyers under several possible market outcomes. We conclude from this analysis that, where water supply is stochastic, water markets unambiguously reduce both parties' risk exposure. The empirical study is conducted on an irrigation district in the Guadalquivir Valley (Southern Spain), where there is a high probability of periods of extreme water scarcity. Water demand functions for the district representative irrigators and a spatial equilibrium model are used to simulate market exchanges and equilibrium. This programming model is combined with statistical simulation techniques. We show that the profit probability distribution of a representative irrigator is modified if water exchanges are authorized, leading to risk reductions. Results also indicate that if the market were extended to several districts and users that are subject to varying hydrological risk exposure, extremely low-profit events would be less likely to occur. In sum, we show that exchanging water in annual spot markets can reduce farmers' economic vulnerability caused by water supply variability across irrigation seasons. These results support the water policy reform carried out in Spain in 1999 to allow for voluntary water exchanges among right holders. [source]


    Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Assessment in Construction

    COMPUTER-AIDED CIVIL AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING, Issue 4 2010
    N. Sadeghi
    However, subjective and linguistically expressed information results in added non-probabilistic uncertainty in construction management. Fuzzy logic has been used successfully for representing such uncertainties in construction projects. In practice, an approach that can handle both random and fuzzy uncertainties in a risk assessment model is necessary. This article discusses the deficiencies of the available methods and proposes a Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation (FMCS) framework for risk analysis of construction projects. In this framework, we construct a fuzzy cumulative distribution function as a novel way to represent uncertainty. To verify the feasibility of the FMCS framework and demonstrate its main features, the authors have developed a special purpose simulation template for cost range estimating. This template is employed to estimate the cost of a highway overpass project. [source]


    A Decision Support System Specification for Cost Escalation in Heavy Engineering Industry

    COMPUTER-AIDED CIVIL AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING, Issue 5 2002
    Nashwan N. Dawood
    The heavy civil engineering industry (railways, sewage-treatment, chemical and pharmaceutical facilities, oil and gas facilities, etc.) is one of the major contributors to the British economy and generally involves a high level of investment. Clients in this industry are demanding accurate cost estimates, proper analysis of out-turn cost and cost escalation, and a high quality risk analysis throughout the construction processes. Current practices in the industry have suggested that there is a lack of structured methodologies and systematic cost escalation approaches to achieve an appropriate cost analysis at the outset of projects and throughout the construction processes. In this context the prime objective of this research work is to develop a structured cost escalation methodology for improving estimating management and control in the heavy engineering industry construction processes. The methodology is composed of a forecasting model to predict cost indices of major items in industry and a risk knowledge-base model for identifying and quantifying causes of cost escalations. This paper reviews and discusses a knowledge-based model for applying a cost escalation factor. The cost escalation factor is made up of market variation, a risk element, and a component for bias. A knowledge elicitation strategy was employed to obtain the required knowledge for the model. The strategy included questionnaires, interviews, and workshops, and deliverables came in the form of influences and their effect on project cost escalation. From these deliverables, a decision support system and specifications for applying cost escalation to base estimates are presented. [source]


    Evaluating extreme risks in invasion ecology: learning from banking compliance

    DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 4 2008
    James Franklin
    ABSTRACT Increasing international trade has exacerbated the risks of ecological damage due to invasive pests and diseases. For extreme events such as invasions of damaging exotic species or natural catastrophes, there are no or very few directly relevant data, so expert opinion must be relied on heavily. Expert opinion must be as fully informed and calibrated as possible , by available data, by other experts, and by the reasoned opinions of stakeholders. We survey a number of quantitative and non-quantitative methods that have shown promise for improving extreme risk analysis, particularly for assessing the risks of invasive pests and pathogens associated with international trade. We describe the legally inspired regulatory regime for banks, where these methods have been brought to bear on extreme ,operational risks'. We argue that an ,advocacy model' similar to that used in the Basel II compliance regime for bank operational risks and to a lesser extent in biosecurity import risk analyses is ideal for permitting the diversity of relevant evidence about invasive species to be presented and soundly evaluated. We recommend that the process be enhanced in ways that enable invasion ecology to make more explicit use of the methods found successful in banking. [source]


    Efficient sampling and data reduction techniques for probabilistic seismic lifeline risk assessment

    EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS, Issue 10 2010
    Nirmal Jayaram
    Abstract Probabilistic seismic risk assessment for spatially distributed lifelines is less straightforward than for individual structures. While procedures such as the ,PEER framework' have been developed for risk assessment of individual structures, these are not easily applicable to distributed lifeline systems, due to difficulties in describing ground-motion intensity (e.g. spectral acceleration) over a region (in contrast to ground-motion intensity at a single site, which is easily quantified using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis), and since the link between the ground-motion intensities and lifeline performance is usually not available in closed form. As a result, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and its variants are well suited for characterizing ground motions and computing resulting losses to lifelines. This paper proposes a simulation-based framework for developing a small but stochastically representative catalog of earthquake ground-motion intensity maps that can be used for lifeline risk assessment. In this framework, Importance Sampling is used to preferentially sample ,important' ground-motion intensity maps, and K -Means Clustering is used to identify and combine redundant maps in order to obtain a small catalog. The effects of sampling and clustering are accounted for through a weighting on each remaining map, so that the resulting catalog is still a probabilistically correct representation. The feasibility of the proposed simulation framework is illustrated by using it to assess the seismic risk of a simplified model of the San Francisco Bay Area transportation network. A catalog of just 150 intensity maps is generated to represent hazard at 1038 sites from 10 regional fault segments causing earthquakes with magnitudes between five and eight. The risk estimates obtained using these maps are consistent with those obtained using conventional MCS utilizing many orders of magnitudes more ground-motion intensity maps. Therefore, the proposed technique can be used to drastically reduce the computational expense of a simulation-based risk assessment, without compromising the accuracy of the risk estimates. This will facilitate computationally intensive risk analysis of systems such as transportation networks. Finally, the study shows that the uncertainties in the ground-motion intensities and the spatial correlations between ground-motion intensities at various sites must be modeled in order to obtain unbiased estimates of lifeline risk. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    A compound Poisson model for the annual area burned by forest fires in the province of Ontario

    ENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 5 2010
    Justin J. Podur
    Abstract We use the compound Poisson probability distribution to model the annual area burned by forest fires in the Canadian province of Ontario. Models for sums-of-random variables, relevant for modeling aggregate insurance claims and assessing insurance risk are also relevant in modeling aggregate area burned based on sums of sizes of individual fires. Researchers have fit the distribution of fire sizes to the truncated power-law (or Pareto) distribution (Ward et al., 2001) and a four-parameter Weibull distribution (Reed and McKelvey, 2002). Armstrong (1999) fitted a lognormal distribution to annual proportion of area burned by forest fires in a region of Alberta. We derive expressions and moments for aggregate area burned in Ontario using fire data from the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR). We derive expressions for the distribution of area burned for "severe" and "mild" fire weather scenarios and for "intensive suppression" and "no suppression" scenarios (represented by the intensive and extensive fire protection zones of the province). These distributions can be used to perform risk analysis of annual area burned. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    Predictive distributions in risk analysis and estimation for the triangular distribution

    ENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 7 2001
    Yongsung Joo
    Abstract Many Monte Carlo simulation studies have been done in the field of risk analysis. This article demonstrates the importance of using predictive distributions (the estimated distributions of the explanatory variable accounting for uncertainty in point estimation of parameters) in the simulations. We explore different types of predictive distributions for the normal distribution, the lognormal distribution and the triangular distribution. The triangular distribution poses particular problems, and we found that estimation using quantile least squares was preferable to maximum likelihood. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    The EPPO pest risk analysis scheme: comments on using risk scales

    EPPO BULLETIN, Issue 1 2010
    A. MacLeod
    The pest risk assessment component of the EPPO pest risk analysis (PRA) scheme requires many factors to be considered before the overall risk from a pest or pest-pathway combination is estimated. Each risk factor to consider appears as a question in the risk assessment stage of the PRA scheme. The way in which risk factors are rated within the EPPO scheme are described and compared with two pest risk assessment systems from North America that use rank-order measures to represent composite risk factors during the risk assessment process. It is concluded that a description or metric for each division of a scale that describes the risk factor, for example area occupied, frequency of occurrence and likelihood of an event, would help risk assessors to use the EPPO PRA scheme and should make the risk assessment stage of the scheme more consistent, leading to improved PRAs. [source]


    Phytosanitary measures in the European Union: a call for more dynamic risk management allowing more focus on real pest risks Case study: Potato spindle tuber viroid (PSTVd) on ornamental Solanaceae in Europe

    EPPO BULLETIN, Issue 3 2008
    M. B. De Hoop
    After fifteen years of harmonisation of phytosanitary measures in the European Union, today's legislation has become increasingly stagnant, complex and detailed. The recent finding of Potato spindle tuber viroid in ornamental plants in the Netherlands and other Member States illustrates the struggle to take prompt emergency measures when specific knowledge is not available. It is proposed that the European Commission should take the initiative to organise the process of pest risk analysis from beginning to end. In addition, the Commission should have budgets at their disposal for instantaneous research to generate the required data and fill in knowledge gaps. Such policy enables evaluation of emergency measures and implementation of permanent requirements on the basis of scientific data within a short period, thereby creating a dynamic legislation that focuses on real pest risks. [source]


    Association of tryptophan hydroxylase gene polymorphism with depression, anxiety and comorbid depression and anxiety in a population-based sample of postpartum Taiwanese women

    GENES, BRAIN AND BEHAVIOR, Issue 6 2004
    H. S. Sun
    Depression and anxiety disorders often coexist clinically and both are known to have a genetic basis, but the mode of inheritance is too complicated to be determined so far. Serotonin is the biogenic amine neurotransmitter most commonly associated with depression and anxiety. Since tryptophan hydroxylase (TPH1) is the rate-limiting enzyme in serotonin biosynthesis, its role in the pathophysiology of these psychiatric diseases has been intensively studied. In this study, we examined whether polymorphism of the TPH1 gene is related to the etiology of major depression, anxiety and comorbid depression and anxiety. Five single nucleoside polymorphisms of the TPH1 gene were studied in a population-based sample of postpartum Taiwanese women consisting of 120 subjects with depression or/and anxiety and 86 matched normal controls. A significant difference (P = 0.0107) in genotype frequency for the T27224C polymorphism was found between the comorbid and normal groups, and risk analysis showed that the C allele conferred a strong protective effect (odds ratio = 0.27; 95% confident interval = 0.11,0.7). Three-allele haplotypes involving T27224C polymorphism were constructed and haplotype associations between particular haplotype combinations and various diseases identified. However, the associations were weak and the overall haplotype frequency profiles in all groups were similar. The results suggest that depression, anxiety, and comorbid depression and anxiety disorders may have related etiologies. In addition, this study suggests that the TPH1 gene might play a role in the pathogenesis of these closely related disorders. [source]


    SCHIP premiums, enrollment, and expenditures: a two state, competing risk analysis

    HEALTH ECONOMICS, Issue 7 2010
    James Marton
    Abstract Faced with state budget troubles, policymakers may introduce or increase State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) premiums for children in the highest program income eligibility categories. In this paper we compare the responses of SCHIP recipients in a state (Kentucky) that introduced SCHIP premiums for the first time at the end of 2003 with the responses of recipients in a state (Georgia) that increased existing SCHIP premiums in mid-2004. We start with a theoretical examination of how these different policies create different changes to family budget constraints and produce somewhat different financial incentives for recipients. Next we empirically model the impact of these policies using a competing risk approach to differentiate exits due to transfers to other eligibility categories of public coverage from exiting the public health insurance system. In both states we find a short-run increase in the likelihood that children transfer to lower- income eligibility/lower-premium categories of SCHIP. We also find a short-run increase in the rate at which children transfer from SCHIP to Medicaid in Kentucky, which is consistent with our theoretical model. These findings have important financial implications for state budgets, as the matching rates and premium levels are different for different eligibility categories of public coverage. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    Deaths on the liver transplant waiting list: An analysis of competing risks,

    HEPATOLOGY, Issue 2 2006
    W. Ray Kim
    The usual method of estimating survival probabilities, namely the Kaplan-Meier method, is suboptimal in the analysis of deaths on the transplant waiting list. Death, transplantation, and withdrawal from list must all be considered. In this analysis, we applied the competing risk analysis method, which allows evaluating these end points individually and simultaneously, to compare the risk of waiting list death across era, blood types, liver disease diagnosis, and severity (Model for End-stage Liver Disease; MELD). Of 861 patients registered on the waiting list at Mayo Clinic Rochester between 1990 and 1999, 657 (76%) patients underwent transplantation, 82 (10%) died while waiting, 41 (5%) withdrew from the list, and 81 (9%) patients were still waiting as of February 2002. The risk of death at 3 years was 10% by the competing risk analysis. During the study period, the median time to transplantation increased from 45 to 517 days. In univariate analyses, there was no significant difference in the risk of death by era of listing (P = .25) or blood type (P = .31), whereas the risk of death was significantly higher in patients with alcohol-induced liver disease and those with higher MELD score (P < .01). A multivariable analysis showed that after adjusting for MELD, blood type, and diagnosis, patients listed in the latter era had higher mortality. In conclusion, the competing risk analysis method is useful in estimating the risk of death among patients awaiting liver transplantation. (HEPATOLOGY 2006;43:345,351.) [source]


    Effects of spatial grid resolution on river flow and surface inundation simulation by physically based distributed modelling approach

    HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 4 2009
    Dushmanta Dutta
    Abstract Grid-based distributed hydrological models are considered to be a very effective flood modelling tool for basin-wide flood risk analysis because of their capabilities of simulating river and surface inundations at high spatio-temporal resolutions by taking advantages of grid-based data from meteorological models, radar and satellite remote sensing. Selecting an appropriate grid size is critically important for any application of a grid-based model, which requires proper understanding of effects of grid sizes on simulated outcomes. The paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted to analyse the effects of grid resolution on simulated river peak flows and surface inundation in two selected river basins using a process-based distributed hydrological model. The outcomes show that grid resolution significantly affects the simulated river peak flows and surface inundation characteristics. In both cases, it has been found that the effects are mainly caused by changes of the topographic parameters as a result of changes of grid sizes. The reduction of average surface slope with the increase of grid size affects the simulated surface inundation extents and heights. There is a threshold resolution of digital elevation model (DEM) in the simulated flood inundation and beyond that the model outcomes become arbitrary. Averaged topographic values at coarse resolution beyond this threshold level do not represent any characteristics of locally elevated topographic features such as dykes, highways, etc. and their influence on flood inundation characteristics can be no more captured by the model. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


    Probabilistic risk analysis of building contamination

    INDOOR AIR, Issue 5 2008
    D. T. Bolster
    First page of article [source]