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Recent Climate Change (recent + climate_change)
Selected AbstractsHost,parasite interactions and vectors in the barn swallow in relation to climate changeGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2010A. P. MØLLER Abstract Recent climate change has affected the phenology of numerous species, and such differential changes may affect host,parasite interactions. Using information on vectors (louseflies, mosquitoes, blackflies) and parasites (tropical fowl mite Ornithonyssus bursa, the lousefly Ornithomyia avicularia, a chewing louse Brueelia sp., two species of feather mites Trouessartia crucifera and Trouessartia appendiculata, and two species of blood parasites Leucozytozoon whitworthi and Haemoproteus prognei) of the barn swallow Hirundo rustica collected during 1971,2008, I analyzed temporal changes in emergence and abundance, relationships with climatic conditions, and changes in the fitness impact of parasites on their hosts. Temperature and rainfall during the summer breeding season of the host increased during the study. The intensity of infestation by mites decreased, but increased for the lousefly during 1982,2008. The prevalence of two species of blood parasites increased during 1988,2008. The timing of first mass emergence of mosquitoes and blackflies advanced. These temporal changes in phenology and abundance of parasites and vectors could be linked to changes in temperature, but less so to changes in precipitation. Parasites had fitness consequences for hosts because intensity of the mite and the chewing louse was significantly associated with delayed breeding of the host, while a greater abundance of feather mites was associated with earlier breeding. Reproductive success of the host decreased with increasing abundance of the chewing louse. The temporal decrease in mite abundance was associated with advanced breeding of the host, while the increase in abundance of the lousefly was associated with earlier breeding. Virulence by the tropical fowl mite decreased with increasing temperature, independent of confounding factors. These findings suggest that climate change affects parasite species differently, hence altering the composition of the parasite community, and that climate change causes changes in the virulence of parasites. Because the changing phenology of different species of parasites had both positive and negative effects on their hosts, and because the abundance of some parasites increased, while that of other decreased, there was no consistent temporal change in host fitness during 1971,2008. [source] Climate, climate change and range boundariesDIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 3 2010Chris D. Thomas Abstract Aim, A major issue in ecology, biogeography, conservation biology and invasion biology is the extent to which climate, and hence climate change, contributes to the positions of species' range boundaries. Thirty years of rapid climate warming provides an excellent opportunity to test the hypothesis that climate acts as a major constraint on range boundaries, treating anthropogenic climate change as a large-scale experiment. Location, UK and global data, and literature. Methods, This article analyses the frequencies with which species have responded to climate change by shifting their range boundaries. It does not consider abundance or other changes. Results, For the majority of species, boundaries shifted in a direction that is concordant with being a response to climate change; 84% of all species have expanded in a polewards direction as the climate has warmed (for the best data available), which represents an excess of 68% of species after taking account of the fact that some species may shift in this direction for non-climatic reasons. Other data sets also show an excess of animal range boundaries expanding in the expected direction. Main conclusions, Climate is likely to contribute to the majority of terrestrial and freshwater range boundaries. This generalization excludes species that are endemic to specific islands, lakes, rivers and geological outcrops, although these local endemics are not immune from the effects of climate change. The observed shifts associated with recent climate change are likely to have been brought about through both direct and indirect (changes to species' interactions) effects of climate; indirect effects are discussed in relation to laboratory experiments and invasive species. Recent observations of range boundary shifts are consistent with the hypothesis that climate contributes to, but is not the sole determinant of, the position of the range boundaries of the majority of terrestrial animal species. [source] PLANT COLONIZATION IN CONDESA NIVATION HOLLOW, SIERRA DE GUADARRAMA (SPANISH CENTRAL SYSTEM)GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2009JULIO MUÑOZ JIMÉNEZ ABSTRACT. The purpose of this study was to determine plant distribution at a nivation hollow located in a Mediterranean high mountain area and to analyse the effects of snow cover, wind exposure, proximity to moisture and the characteristics of the substrate on the vegetation. We analyse these factors and interpret concurrent effects due to recent climate change. The nivation hollow, called Ventisquero de la Condesa, is located at 2258 m a.s.l., 40°47,10,N and 3°58,35,W, in the Sierra de Guadarrama (Madrid, Spain). We established 579 small sample plots in the study area, and grouped them into 29 transects where snow duration, wind exposure, availability of meltwater, geomorphologic instability and surface rockiness were examined directly and indirectly. The types of plants and the number of individuals per species were registered for each plot to establish ecological affinities among the 28 distinguishable species. Six showed the highest level of chionophily while nine showed the lowest adaptation to snow cover duration. A statistical study incorporating other variables applied in the research revealed that wind exposure, moisture capture and the intensity of geomorphologic dynamics have a highly significant correlation with nivation, while surface rockiness is a virtually independent factor. Due to environmental changes caused by recent global warming, several plant species, especially adapted to survival in snow conditions, coexist in the hollow with saxicolous plants that have invaded the site from adjacent grass and shrublands. [source] Last-century changes of alpine grassland water-use efficiency: a reconstruction through carbon isotope analysis of a time-series of Capra ibex hornsGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2010INÊS C. R. BARBOSA Abstract The ecophysiological response of an alpine grassland to recent climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration was investigated with a new strategy to go back in time: using a time-series of Capra ibex horns as archives of the alpine grasslands' carbon isotope discrimination (13,). From the collection of the Natural History Museum of Bern, horns of 24 males from the population of the Augstmatthorn,Brienzer Rothorn mountains, Switzerland, were sampled covering the period from 1938 to 2006. Samples were taken from the beginning of each year-ring of the horns, representing the beginning of the horn growth period, the spring. The horns' carbon 13C content (,13C) declined together with that of atmospheric CO2 over the 69-year period, but 13, increased slightly (+0.4,), though significantly (P<0.05), over the observation period. Estimated intercellular CO2 concentration increased (+56 ,mol mol,1) less than the atmospheric CO2 concentration (+81 ,mol mol,1), so that intrinsic water-use efficiency increased by 17.8% during the 69-year period. However, the atmospheric evaporative demand at the site increased by approximately 0.1 kPa between 1955 and 2006, thus counteracting the improvement of intrinsic water-use efficiency. As a result, instantaneous water-use efficiency did not change. The observed changes in intrinsic water-use efficiency were in the same range as those of trees (as reported by others), indicating that leaf-level control of water-use efficiency of grassland and forests followed the same principles. This is the first reconstruction of the water-use efficiency response of a natural grassland ecosystem to last century CO2 and climatic changes. The results indicate that the alpine grassland community has responded to climate change by improving the physiological control of carbon gain to water loss, following the increases in atmospheric CO2 and evaporative demand. But, effective leaf-level water-use efficiency has remained unchanged. [source] Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warmingGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 9 2007CAMILLE PARMESANArticle first published online: 14 AUG 200 Abstract New analyses are presented addressing the global impacts of recent climate change on phenology of plant and animal species. A meta-analysis spanning 203 species was conducted on published datasets from the northern hemisphere. Phenological response was examined with respect to two factors: distribution of species across latitudes and taxonomic affiliation or functional grouping of target species. Amphibians had a significantly stronger shift toward earlier breeding than all other taxonomic/functional groups, advancing more than twice as fast as trees, birds and butterflies. In turn, butterfly emergence or migratory arrival showed three times stronger advancement than the first flowering of herbs, perhaps portending increasing asynchrony in insect,plant interactions. Response was significantly stronger at higher latitudes where warming has been stronger, but latitude explained < 4% of the variation. Despite expectation, latitude was not yet an important predictor of climate change impacts on phenology. The only two previously published estimates of the magnitude of global response are quite different: 2.3 and 5.1 days decade,1 advancement. The scientific community has assumed this difference to be real and has attempted to explain it in terms of biologically relevant phenomena: specifically, differences in distribution of data across latitudes, taxa or time periods. Here, these and other possibilities are explored. All analyses indicate that the difference in estimated response is primarily due to differences between the studies in criteria for incorporating data. It is a clear and automatic consequence of the exclusion by one study of data on ,stable' (nonresponsive) species. Once this is accounted for, the two studies support each other, generating similar conclusions despite analyzing substantially nonoverlapping datasets. Analyses here on a new expanded dataset estimate an overall spring advancement across the northern hemisphere of 2.8 days decade,1. This is the first quantitative analysis showing that data-sampling methodologies significantly impact global (synthetic) estimates of magnitude of global warming response. [source] Latitudinal patterns in the phenological responses of leaf colouring and leaf fall to climate change in JapanGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2008Hideyuki Doi ABSTRACT Aim, To estimate the potential effect of global climate change on the phenological responses of plants it is necessary to estimate spatial variations at larger scales. However, previous studies have not estimated latitudinal patterns in the phenological response directly. We hypothesized that the phenological response of plants varies with latitude, and estimated the phenological response to long-term climate change using autumn phenological events that have been delayed by recent climate change. Location, Japan. Methods, We used a 53-year data set to document the latitudinal patterns in the climate responses of the timing of autumn leaf colouring and fall for two tree species over a wide range of latitudes in Japan (31 to 44° N). We calculated single regression slopes for leaf phenological timing and air temperature across Japan and tested their latitudinal patterns using regression models. The effects of latitude, time and their interaction on the responses of the phenological timings were also estimated using generalized linear mixed models. Results, Our results showed that single regression slopes of leaf phenological timing and air temperature in autumn were positive at most stations. Higher temperatures can delay the timing of leaf phenology. Negative relationships were found between the phenological response of leaves to temperature and latitude. Single regression slopes of the phenological responses at lower latitudes were larger than those at higher latitudes. Main conclusions, We found negative relationships between leaf phenological responsiveness and latitude. These findings will be important for predicting phenological timing with global climate change. [source] An Arctic and antarctic perspective on recent climate changeINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 3 2007John Turner Abstract We contrast recent climatic and environmental changes and their causes in the Arctic and the Antarctic. There are continuing increases in surface temperatures, losses of sea ice and tundra, and warming of permafrost over broad areas of the Arctic, while most of the major increase in Antarctic temperatures is on the Antarctic Peninsula associated with sea ice loss in the Bellingshausen,Amundsen Seas sector. While both natural atmospheric and oceanic variability, and changes in external forcing including increased greenhouse gas concentrations, must be considered in the quest for understanding such changes, the interactions and feedbacks between system components are particularly strong at high latitudes. For the 1950s to date in the Arctic and for 1957 to date in the Antarctic, positive trends in large-scale atmospheric circulation represented by the Arctic oscillation (AO) and Antarctic oscillations (AAO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern contribute to the long-term temperature trends. However, continuing Arctic trends during the last decade of near neutral AO will require alternate explanations. The trend in the AAO since 1950 is larger than expected from natural variability and may be associated with the decrease in stratospheric ozone over Antarctic. The persistence shown in many Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula components of climate and their influence through possible feedback supports continuation of current trends over the next decade. One can expect large spatial and temporal differences, however, from the relative contributions of intrinsic variability, external forcing, and internal feedback/amplifications. It is particularly important to resolve regional feedback processes in future projections based on modeling scenarios. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Establishing a missing link: warm summers and winter snow cover promote shrub expansion into alpine tundra in ScandinaviaNEW PHYTOLOGIST, Issue 4 2010Martin Hallinger Summary ,Shrub expansion in alpine and arctic areas is a process with possibly profound implications for ecosystem functioning. The recent shrub expansion has been mainly documented by remote sensing techniques, but the drivers for this process largely remain hypotheses. ,Here, we outline a dendrochronological method, adapted to shrubs, to address these hypotheses and then present a mechanism for the current shrub expansion by linking recent climate change to shrub growth performance in northern Sweden. ,A pronounced increase in radial and vertical growth during recent decades along an elevational gradient from treeline to shrubline indicates an ongoing shrub expansion. Age distribution of the shrub population indicates the new colonization of shrubs at high elevations. ,Shrub growth is correlated with warm summers and winter snow cover and suggests the potential for large-scale ecosystem changes if climate change continues as projected. [source] Recent trends from Canadian permafrost thermal monitoring network sitesPERMAFROST AND PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES, Issue 1 2005Sharon L. Smith Abstract The Geological Survey of Canada (GSC), in collaboration with other government partners, has been developing and maintaining a network of active-layer and permafrost thermal monitoring sites which contribute to the Canadian Permafrost Monitoring Network and the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost. Recent results from the thermal monitoring sites maintained by the GSC and other federal government agencies are presented. These results indicate that the response of permafrost temperature to recent climate change and variability varies across the Canadian permafrost region. Warming of shallow permafrost temperatures of between 0.3 and 0.6°C per decade has occurred since the mid- to late 1980s in the central and northern Mackenzie region in response to a general increase in air temperature. No significant warming (less than 0.1°C per decade) of permafrost is observed in the southern Mackenzie valley. Warming of shallow permafrost of between 1.0 and 4.0°C per decade is also observed in the eastern and high Arctic, but this mainly occurred in the late 1990s. These trends in permafrost temperature are consistent with trends in air temperature observed since the 1970s. Local conditions however, influence the response of the permafrost thermal regime to these changes in air temperature. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi-model experimentTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 601 2004M. J. Rodwell Abstract To understand recent climate change in the North Atlantic region and to produce better climate forecasts with uncertainty estimates it is important to determine the atmospheric ,response' to Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing. There have been conflicting results regarding the strength, character and tropical-versus-extratropical origin of this response. For model-based studies, this may indicate differing sensitivities to Atlantic SST, but the comparison is complicated by changes in experimental design. Here, a highly controlled experiment with five atmospheric models is undertaken. The influence of realistic (if reasonably strong) and optimally chosen North Atlantic (equator to 70°N) SST anomalies is isolated. Unexpected global agreement between the models is found (e.g. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Eurasian temperatures, rainfall over the Americas and Africa, and the Asian monsoon). The extratropical North Atlantic region response appears to be associated with remote Caribbean and tropical Atlantic SST anomalies, and with local forcing. Some features such as the European winter-temperature response would be stronger than atmospheric ,noise' if the prescribed SST anomalies persisted for just two years. More generally, Atlantic air,sea interaction appears to be important for climate variability on the 30-year timescale and, thus, to be important in the climate-change context. The multi-model mean response patterns are in reasonable agreement with observational estimates, although the model response magnitudes may be too weak. The similarity between their responses helps to reconcile models. Inter-model differences do still exist and these are discussed and quantified. © Crown copyright, 2004. [source] Simulating the response of a closed-basin lake to recent climate changes in tropical West Africa (Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana)HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 13 2007Timothy M. Shanahan Abstract Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment-scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939,2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data-sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley,Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy-budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer-term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The impact of climate change on birdsIBIS, Issue 2004Humphrey Q. P. Crick Weather is of major importance for the population dynamics of birds, but the implications of climate change have only recently begun to be addressed. There is already compelling evidence that birds have been affected by recent climate changes. This review suggests that although there is a substantial body of evidence for changes in the phenology of birds, particularly of the timing of migration and of nesting, the consequences of these responses for a species' population dynamics is still an area requiring in-depth research. The potential for phenological miscuing (responding inappropriately to climate change, including a lack of response) and for phenological disjunction (in which a bird species becomes out of synchrony with its environment) are beginning to be demonstrated, and are also important areas for further research. The study of climatically induced distributional change is currently at a predictive modelling stage, and will need to develop methods for testing these predictions. Overall, there is a range of intrinsic and extrinsic factors that could potentially inhibit adaptation to climate change and these are a high priority for research. [source] | ||||||||||||||||