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Real Terms (real + term)
Selected AbstractsUnemployment May Be Lower if Unions Bargain over Wages and EmploymentLABOUR, Issue 1 2002Hartmut Egger This paper addresses the question under which circumstances unemployment can be lower if unions bargain over wages and employment in a general equilibrium framework. Thereby, it turns out that the unemployment rate may negatively depend on the wage rate, if the unemployment compensation scheme contains a constant real term in addition to the replacement ratio component. This is, compared with a pure replacement ratio scheme, the more plausible formalization of the real world's compensation systems, at least for European countries. Besides the theoretical analysis, the paper also derives political implications by identifying the relevant parameters for the decision on whether weakening unions will be a good strategy for an economy to overcome its unemployment problem. [source] Dynamics of petroleum markets in OECD countries in a monthly VAR,VEC model (1995,2007)OPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 1 2008Mehdi Asali This paper contains some results of a study in which the dynamics of petroleum markets in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is investigated through a vector auto regression (VAR),vector error correction model. The time series of the model comprises the monthly data for the variables demand for oil in the OECD, WTI in real term as a benchmark oil price, industrial production in OECD as a proxy for income and commercial stocks of crude oil and oil products in OECD for the time period of January 1995 to September 2007. The detailed results of this empirical research are presented in different sections of the paper; nevertheless, the general result that emerges from this study could be summarised as follows: (i) there is convincing evidence of the series being non-stationary and integrated of order one I(1) with clear signs of co-integration relations between the series; (ii) the VAR system of the empirical study appears stable and restores its dynamics as usual, following a shock to the rate of changes of different variables of the model, taking between five and eight periods (months in our case); (iii) we find the lag length of 2 as being optimal for the estimated VAR model; (iv) significant impact of changes in the commercial crude and products' inventory level on oil price and on demand for oil is highlighted in our empirical study and in different formulations of the VAR model, indicating the importance of the changes in the stocks' level on oil market dynamics; and (v) income elasticity of deman for oil appears to be prominent and statistically significant in most estimated models of the VAR system in the long run, while price elasticity of demand for oil is found to be negligible and insignificant in the short run. However, while aggregate oil consumption does not appear to be very sensitive to the changes of oil prices (which is believed to be because of the so-called ,rebound effect' of oil (energy) efficiency in the macro level) in the macro level, the declining trend of oil intensity (oil used for production of unit value of goods and services), particularly when there is an upward trend in oil price, clearly indicates the channels through which persistent changes in oil prices could affect the demand for oil in OECD countries. [source] European Food Marketing: Understanding Consumer Wants , The Starting Point in Adding Value to Basic Food Products La commercialisation des aliments en Europe : comprendre des désirs des consommateurs , point de départ pour ajouter de la valeur aux produits alimentaires de base Lebensmittelhandel in Europa: Das Verständnis der Kundenwünsche ist Voraussetzung für zusätzliche Wertschöpfung bei GrundnahrungsmittelnEUROCHOICES, Issue 3 2009David Hughes Summary European Food Marketing: Understanding Consumer Wants , The Starting Point in Adding Value to Basic Food Products European consumers have been in sombre mood as they battle to make ends meet in an economic recession. Yet, for many countries, the past 50 years or so has been a halcyon period of economic growth and, in real terms, declining food prices. Apart from lower food prices, attributes of convenience, health, pleasure and more esoteric social elements such as animal welfare-friendliness and environmental sustainability are increasingly important to consumers in their food choices. With higher household incomes has come an increasingly segmented food market, as businesses seek to differentiate their products from competitors to earn a premium above the basic commodity price. In an increasingly competitive European and global market, whether the firm is small or large, the first step in successful product differentiation requires an insightful understanding of the drivers of consumer purchase and consumption behaviour. These have fundamental commercial importance in the marketing strategy of any business. Yet, a surprising number of businesses in the food and beverage industry know very little about who buys and consumes their products. In the 21st century, the primacy of consumers and citizens will be substantially more ,front and centre' than in the previous 50 years of production-driven agricultural and food policy. Les consommateurs européens font grise mine depuis qu'ils peinent à joindre les deux bouts dans un contexte de récession économique. Pourtant, dans de nombreux pays, les cinquante dernières années ont formé une période en or de croissance économique et de baisse des prix alimentaires en termes réels. Outre des prix plus bas, les consommateurs accordent, dans leurs choix alimentaires, une importance de plus en plus grande à des attributs en termes de commodité, de santé, de plaisir et d'éléments sociaux plus ésotériques comme le bon traitement des animaux et la durabilité environnementale. La hausse des revenus des ménages a entraîné une segmentation accrue des marchés des produits alimentaires car les entreprises cherchent à différencier leurs produits de ceux de leurs concurrents pour obtenir une prime en sus du prix du produit classique. Dans un marché européen et mondial de plus en plus concurrentiel, que l'entreprise soit petite ou grande, la première étape d'une différentiation de produit réussie consiste à bien comprendre les motivations des consommateurs en termes d'achat et leur comportement en terme de consommation. Ces considérations ont une importance commerciale primordiale dans la stratégie de commercialisation de toute entreprise. Pourtant, un nombre surprenant de firmes de l'industrie des aliments et boissons savent très peu de chose sur les clients qui achètent et consomment leurs produits. Au vingt-et-unième siècle, la primauté des consommateurs et des citoyens sera nettement plus ,,frontale et centrale" qu'elle ne l'était dans les cinquante dernières années durant lesquelles la politique agricole et alimentaire était axée sur la production. Gedrückte Stimmung hat sich unter den europäischen Verbrauchern breit gemacht, da sie in der Rezession über die Runden kommen müssen. Dabei konnten viele Länder in den vergangenen etwa 50 Jahren auf eine glückliche Zeit wirtschaftlichen Wachstums und real rückläufiger Lebensmittelpreise blicken. Einmal abgesehen von den geringeren Lebensmittelpreisen, richtet der Verbraucher sein Hauptaugenmerk bei der Auswahl seiner Lebensmittel zunehmend auf Kriterien wie Verbraucherfreundlichkeit, Gesundheit, Genuss sowie esoterischere soziale Elemente wie Tierschutzfreundlichkeit und Umweltverträglichkeit. Höhere Haushaltseinkommen führten zu einem immer stärker segmentierten Lebensmittelmarkt, da die Unternehmen danach streben, ihre Produkte von denen der Konkurrenz abzuheben, um einen Aufschlag auf den Grundwarenpreis zu erzielen. Ob es sich nun um ein kleines oder großes Unternehmen handelt: Auf einem zunehmend wettbewerbsorientierten europäischen Markt und Weltmarkt und auf dem Weg hin zu einer erfolgreichen Produktdifferenzierung ist es zunächst einmal erforderlich, die Triebfedern für die Kaufentscheidung und das Konsumverhalten des Verbrauchers zu verstehen. Diese spielen eine wichtige wirtschaftliche Rolle in der Marketingstrategie eines jeden Unternehmens. Dennoch wissen erstaunlich viele Unternehmen aus der Lebensmittel- und Getränkeindustrie nur sehr wenig darüber, wer ihre Produkte kauft und konsumiert. Im 21. Jahrhundert werden die Wünsche der Verbraucher und Bürger wesentlich stärker Vorrang haben als dies in den vergangenen 50 Jahren produktionsorientierter Agrar- und Lebensmittelpolitik der Fall war. [source] The Trans-Tasman Cable, the Australasian Bridgehead and Imperial HistoryHISTORY COMPASS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 3 2008James Smithies The extension of the ,All Red' telegraph network to Australia and New Zealand during the 1870s greatly enhanced communication between the centre and periphery, consolidating British imperial expansion and offering the Australasian colonies the opportunity to engage more fully in imperial affairs. For contemporaries, the Trans-Tasman cable between Australia and New Zealand provided the final link in a grand imperial chain of communications, which promised to bolster their significance in world affairs and offset the cultural isolation which appeared to be stifling their development. The cable represented an essential bond between the furthest-flung imperial ,bridgehead' (John Darwin) and the cultural and strategic centre of London. In real terms, however, the promises of the new technology of submarine telegraphy failed to live up to expectations. Although quickly integrated into New Zealanders' dawning cultural nationalist myth, the cable was expensive and underused for many years. Its real significance lies in its symbolic power as a symbol of imperial expansion, and as a case study in the vagaries of technology transfer. [source] The arithmetic of defence policyINTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, Issue 3 2001Michael Alexander The Kosovo campaign of 1999 demonstrated unambiguously the weakness of European military forces. Recognition of the consequences of this lack of capability has put new vigour into the European defence debate. Yet decline in military capability is systemic in every European country. The Helsinki goals will do nothing to address this decline. National defence budgets over the past 15 years have been decreasing in real terms. Even if current aspirations to hold military spending levels were to be achieved, the decline in capabilities would continue. Military equipment and personnel costs rise faster than domestic inflation, and therefore fewer people and weapons systems can be afforded each year. There is no prospect of significant uplifts in defence budgets in Europe, despite the acknowledged need for a range of expensive enabling capabilities for post-Cold War operations. Palliative measures now on trial are unlikely to have a major impact. The only option for European nations is a progressive integration of their forces to realize the economies of scale that would allow effectiveness to be maintained. There are opportunities for initiatives that would produce short-term pay-offs. Despite the severe political difficulties of a long-term plan for integration, the alternative is worse. Trying to maintain sovereignty in defence provision will mean that the nations of Europe will eventually be unable either to meet the requirements of even their most modest security needs or to exercise any influence over US defence and security policies. [source] COMPETITION AND REGULATION IN THE U.K. ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY (WITH A BRIEF LOOK AT CALIFORNIA)JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 4 2001Stephen C. Littlechild In this article, the U.K.'s Director General of Electricity Supply from 1989 to 1998 assesses the effects of deregulation and competition on the U.K. electricity industry after about a decade. Expansion of existing competitors, new entry, and further restructuring have reduced the aggregate share of the largest two generation companies from nearly 80% to 26%. Efficiency has improved and wholesale prices have fallen after an initial increase. Voluntary bilateral contracts markets are about to replace the mandatory "Pool," with centralised control limited to physically balancing the system and settling contract imbalances. Retail supply competition has been active for large industrial customers since the beginning, and 80% of them now buy from another supplier. The market for residential customers opened in early 1999, and already nearly a quarter of them have chosen another supplier. Incentive price controls on transmission and distribution have stimulated increased efficiency and significantly reduced use-of-system charges. Overall, prices for all classes of customers have fallen by 25,35% in real terms since privatisation, and quality of service has improved. California has adopted a policy that is similar in many respects, but with very different results. The problems there have stemmed partly from less favourable demand and supply conditions, but also from significant policy differences, including barriers to building new capacity, obstacles to the use of long-term supply (or hedging) contracts, retail price controls at untenable levels, and the requirement that (after a transition period) utilities pass through wholesale spot prices directly to their customers. Changes in such policies will eventually enable both producers and consumers in California to benefit from competition. [source] ,BAUMOL'S DISEASE', PRODUCTION EXTERNALITIES AND PRODUCTIVITY EFFECTS OF INTERSECTORAL TRANSFERSMETROECONOMICA, Issue 3 2007Claudio De Vincenti ABSTRACT This paper presents a model that introduces in an unbalanced growth framework à la Baumol the hypothesis of an endogenous productivity growth due to a positive externality of the service sector on manufacturing productivity and a learning-by-doing process inside both sectors. The model shows that a policy aimed at keeping the ratio between outputs in the two sectors constant in real terms may improve the aggregate productivity performance of the economy, depending on the parameters' values. Then the model derives the dynamics of the intersectoral transfer which is necessary to keep the ratio between outputs constant, and verifies that the amount of the transfer turns out to be always lower than the output of the manufacturing sector, and only asymptotically approaches it. [source] Latest news and product developmentsPRESCRIBER, Issue 17 2007Article first published online: 6 NOV 200 Drug information stilllacking for mentally ill Half of people with mental illness still have no say in the medication they are prescribed and one-third are not informed about side-effects, according to the latest report by the Healthcare Commission and the Commission for Social Care Inspection (www.health-carecommission.org.uk). The annual national review of adult mental health services found overall improvement among local intervention teams in 2005/06 compared with the preceding year, though all could improve further and the performance of 46 per cent were rated as only fair or weak. A survey of 7446 people with schizophrenia also showed that only 46 per cent had access to psychological treatments. More incentives for shift of care in Scotland Scotland has made good progress on shifting NHS care into the community but joined-up thinking, better information and incentives are needed to overcome barriers to better management of long-term conditions in adults, says Audit Scotland (www.audit-scotland.gov.uk). Reviewing progress on the 2005 strategy document Delivering for Health, Audit Scotland found good progress on asthma and diabetes services , partly due to the effects of the GMS contract. Better information about clinical activity, costs and effectiveness is needed to help redesign services. Patients with more than one long-term condition do not receive co-ordinated care and many want greater involvement in their care, the report concluded. Acorn, QOF and Guy Rotherham awards Entries are invited for the 2007 annual Acorn, QOF and Guy Rotherham Awards. The awards are run in association with the NHS Alliance, Improvement Foundation, British Cardiac Society, British Cardiac Patients Society and Prescriber. The CHD QOF Award, sponsored by Schering-Plough, recognises the achievement of an individual practice that gains maximum points in the CHD and heart failure QOF domains, and a second award is given to the primary care organisation (PCO) that achieves the best average scores across its practices. The entry form can be found at www.escriber.com. The closing date is 12 October. Entries are also invited for the Guy Rotherham Award from PCOs that can demonstrate they have delivered a high-impact change resulting in better outcomes and services for patients. For online entry go to www.improvementfoundation.org/guy rotherhamaward. Closing date is 5 October. Award winners will receive free entry for three to the NHS Alliance conference and the conference dinner. The winner of the Guy Rotherham Award will also receive £3000. NICE scores five out of six NICE acted unreasonably in relying solely on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) to define severity of Alzheimer's disease in its updated technology appraisals, with the effect of discriminating against people with learning or language difficulties, the High Court has ruled. The five other claims by Eisai that NICE acted unreasonably and irrationally were not upheld. This was the first court action against NICE in its eight-year history. It has now promised to publish revised appraisals on its website on 7 September and is consulting with Eisai, Shire Pharmaceuticals and the Alzheimer's Society on the best approach. PPRS reform follows Office of Fair Trading report The Government is to renegotiate the Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme (PPRS) following the critical report by the Office of Fair Trading (OFT). In February, the OFT recommended renegotiation of the PPRS to reward innovation and obtain better value for patients. In particular, it called for a pricing scheme based on value for patients, ie effectiveness, rather than profit controls. The DoH, acknowledging the report's complexity, says it will take four principles into account in its negotiations during the forthcoming months: value for money, promoting innovation, assisting the uptake of new cost-effective medicines and promoting market stability. MHRA launches e-bulletin The MHRA (www.mhra.gov.uk) has next issue can be downloaded. The launched an electronic bulletin to August bulletin includes items on provide health professionals with antidepressants and suicide, updates about the safe use of medi-adverse effects of dopamine ago-cines. Users need to sign up to nists and information about smokreceive an e-mail alert when the ing cessation and isotretinoin. DURG call for abstracts The Drug Utilisation Research Group is calling for abstracts for its 19th annual meeting ,Target-driven medicine , is this the end of prescribing freedom?' to be held on 7 February 2008 at the Royal Society of Medicine, London. Abstracts are requested on any aspects of drug utilisation research. A bursary of £500 will be awarded for the best abstract received. The closing date for receipt of abstracts is 26 November. Further information about abstract submission is available at www.durg.org.uk. GP prescribing up by half Prescription volume and costs in England increased by approximately half over the decade to 2006, according to data published by the Information Centre for Health and Social Care (www.ic.nhs.uk). The number of items dispensed per year increased by 55 per cent and the cost by 60 per cent in real terms. The average number of items per head of population was 10.0 in 1996 and 14.8 in 2006; older people received 21.2 items per head in 1996 but 40.8 in 2006. MR morphines similar Modified-release preparations of morphine are equivalent in the treatment of severe pain, according to a new review by Bandolier (www.jr2.ox.ac.uk). The analysis of 54 randomised trials, which reviewed the release mechanisms and clinical data for four brands, showed these preparations provide effective analgesia for malignant and nonmalignant pain; about 4 per cent of patients were unable to tolerate the adverse effects of morphine. NSAIDs compared in OA Etoricoxib (Arcoxia) and naproxen are equally effective in the long-term treatment of osteoarthritis (Ann Rheum Dis 2007;66:945,51). Extension studies for two one-year trials showed that, after a total of 138 weeks, the two drugs had almost identical effects on pain and function assessments. All treatments were generally well tolerated, but serious cardiovascular effects were more common with etoricoxib and serious GI effects more common with naproxen. CPN nystatin allowed Community practitioner nurses (CPNs) may now prescribe oral nystatin (Nystan) to treat oral thrush in neonates, following a special amendment to the regulations limiting their prescribing to licensed indications. CPNs may now prescribe oral nystatin at the dose recommended in the BNF for Children provided they are sure of the diagnosis. In doing so, they accept clinical and medicolegal responsibility for their actions. There are no other exceptions to the prohibition of off-label prescribing. Copyright © 2007 Wiley Interface Ltd [source] Retirement Incomes: Private Savings versus Social TransfersTHE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 5 2000John Creedy It has long been known, from the work of Samuelson and Aaron, that if (approximately) the sum of the population and real earnings growth rates exceeds the real interest rate, all individuals can be made better off by using a pay-as-you-go pension scheme. The basic overlapping generations model that is typically used to examine such intergenerational transfers makes no allowance for labour supply responses to taxes and transfers, and so cannot be used to examine optimal tax and pension levels. The present paper allows for labour supply effects, whereby a tax imposed to finance current pensions introduces distortions to labour supply and a reduction in the tax base. The optimal proportional tax rate, and therefore the optimal combination of private savings and social transfers, is derived in terms of the time preference rate, the taste for leisure, real interest and productivity and population growth rates. It is found that the condition under which the optimal tax is positive is the same as the Samuelson,Aaron condition. A crucial ingredient in obtaining this result is an assumption that pension levels are adjusted in line with the growth of wage rates rather than, for example, being held constant in real terms. This in turn is found to imply that earnings grow at the same rate as the wage, so long as preferences are such that leisure can be expressed as a proportion of full income. [source] The need and total cost of Finnish eyecare services: a simulation model for 2005,2040ACTA OPHTHALMOLOGICA, Issue 8 2009Anja Tuulonen Abstract. Purpose:, The aims of this study were: (i) to create a structural simulation model capable of predicting the future need and cost of eyecare services in Finland; and (ii) to test and rank different policy alternatives for access to care and the required physician workforce. Methods:, Using the system dynamics approach, the number and cost of patients with cataract, glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) were described with causal-loop diagrams and were then translated into a set of mathematical equations to build a computer simulation model. Mathematically, the problem was formulated as a set of differential equations that were solved numerically with specialized software. The validity of the model was tested against prevalence and administrative historical data. The costs covered by the public sector in Finland were obtained from 2003 from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register (including outpatient care), the Finnish Social Insurance Institution and a survey of hospital price lists. Different levels of access to public care were then simulated in four eye diseases, for which the model estimated the need for services and resources and their costs in the years 2005,2040. Results:, The model forecasted that the adoption of the 2005 national ,access to care' criteria for cataract surgery would shorten waiting lists. If the workload of Finnish ophthalmologists were kept at the 2003 level, the graduation rate of new ophthalmologists would have to increase by 75% from the current level. If all glaucoma patients were followed in the public sector in future, even this increase in training would not meet the demand for physician workforce. The current model indicated that the screening frequency of diabetes can be increased without large sacrifices in terms of costs. AMD therapy has a significant role in the allocation of future resources in eyecare. The modelling study predicted that ageing alone will increase the costs of eyecare during the next four decades in Finland by about 1% per year in real terms (undiscounted and without inflation of unit costs). The increases in total yearly costs were on average 8.6% between 2001 and 2003. Conclusions:, The results of this modelling study indicate that policy initiatives, such as defining criteria for access to care, can have substantial implications on the demand for care and waiting times whereas the effect of ageing alone was relatively small. Measures to control several other factors , such as the adoption and price level of new technologies, treatments and practice patterns , will be at least equally important in order to restrain healthcare costs effectively. [source] Monitoring poverty and social exclusion 2003CHILD: CARE, HEALTH AND DEVELOPMENT, Issue 2 2004Richard Reading The New Policy Institute has produced its sixth annual report of indicators of poverty and social exclusion. This year's report focuses on regional variations across England, Scotland and Wales. With 5 years of data now available to measure progress since Labour came to office in 1997, it is becoming much clearer where the Government's strategy for combating poverty and social exclusion is being successful , and where it is not. With the number of people living in low-income households now on a steady downward trend, the latest figures (for 2001/2002) passed the notable milestone of taking income poverty lower than at any time in the 1990s. The main reason why the number of people in low-income households fell in the 5 years to 2001/2002 is that there were fewer people in workless households. But, over the same period, the number of people in low-income, working households did not fall. Out-of-work benefits to both working-age families with dependent children and to pensioners have risen by around 30% in real terms since 1998, faster than earnings. This, plus the rise in tax credits, will have had a significant impact on the severity of poverty suffered by some low-income households even when it has not taken them above the low-income threshold. In education, earlier progress in increasing the numbers of those with an adequate minimum level of qualification has stalled, with no further advance since 2000, compared with rapid progress during the second half of the 1990s. Around a quarter of young people at each of the ages of 11, 16 and 19 are still failing to reach a basic level of attainment. There is no sign of any reduction since 1997 in the health inequalities which leave people with low incomes more likely to suffer serious health-related problems. Across the range of indicators, problems of poverty and social exclusion are generally more prevalent in the North-east than in other areas of the country. London has particular problems centred on low income and work and Scotland has particular problems centred on health. [source] Impacts of Food and Energy Price Hikes and Proposed Coping StrategiesCHINA AND WORLD ECONOMY, Issue 6 2008Ling Zhu F01; Q13; Q41 Abstract Based on sample survey data for the years 2006 and 2007, we find that inflation of food and energy prices in China is moving at a slower pace than in the international market; however, the livelihood of low income groups has been significantly impacted. Urban sample households in low income groups have been shifting from consumption of high value food to lower value substitutes; and all of the rural sample households are reducing their total consumption expenditure in real terms. The Engel's coefficient of the rural household enlarged while their proportion of spending on clothing and energy declined. Farmers' households are moving toward more imbalanced diets, and the nutritional status of the poor is apparently deteriorating. The emergency-response measures that the government should implement include stopping subsidies to biofuel producers, who use foodstuffs as inputs, and providing food aid to the poor. The mid-term strategies should include anti-monopoly tactics, improving the market environment for the right competition, and eliminating price distortion. Midterm and long-term socioeconomic policy reform must be undertaken to adjust the social structure, to correct the mechanism of factor price formation, and to transform the pattern of economic growth. [source] | ||||||||||||||||