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Real Options (real + option)
Terms modified by Real Options Selected AbstractsTHE PROMISE OF REAL OPTIONSJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 2 2000Aswath Damodaran In recent years, both practitioners and academics have argued that traditional discounted cash flow models do a poor job of capturing the value of the options embedded in many corporate actions. This paper shows how option pricing models used in valuing financial assets can be used to value three kinds of real options that are often built into corporate projects: the option to delay, the option to expand, and the option to abandon. As a number of examples in this paper suggest, corporate investments that would be rejected using conventional DCF analysis can sometimes be justified by the value of the strategic options they provide. As the illustrations also show, however, the pricing of real options is considerably more difficult than the pricing of financial options and adjustments must often be made to capture the complexity of real investments. [source] REAL OPTIONS AND PATENT DAMAGES: THE LEGAL TREATMENT OF NON-INFRINGING ALTERNATIVES, AND INCENTIVES TO INNOVATEJOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 4 2006Jerry Hausman Abstract Patent litigation has become an increasingly important consideration in business strategy. Damage awards in patent litigation are supposed to compensate the patent owner for economic harm created by infringement and are therefore important for protecting returns to innovation. We analyze the effects that a recent court decision in the United States, called Grain Processing, has had on the incentives of potential infringers to infringe and innovators to innovate. We find that Grain Processing has decreased the expected value of damages awards in patent cases by conferring a ,free option' on infringers. Grain Processing also concluded that the patent owner in the case did not suffer lost profits due to the infringement because the infringer would have adopted an (inferior) non-infringing technology had it not infringed. We demonstrate that this conclusion is inconsistent with standard economic models. [source] The Effect of the Real Option to Transfer on the Value of Guaranteed Minimum Death BenefitsJOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE, Issue 1 2006Eric R. UlmArticle first published online: 24 FEB 200 Variable annuity contracts frequently have many options and option-like features embedded in the contracts. Some are obvious, such as guaranteed minimum death benefits (GMDBs), while others are less obviously option-like. In this article, we consider the effect of the real option to transfer funds between fixed and variable accounts. If a GMDB rider is considered in isolation, it is sometimes in the policyholder's interest to transfer to the fixed fund if the fixed fund earns less than the variable fund in a risk-neutral world. On the other hand, the option to transfer will not be used if the entire annuity and rider are considered together. [source] Understanding the Advantages of Open Innovation Practices in Corporate Venturing in Terms of Real OptionsCREATIVITY AND INNOVATION MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2008Wim Vanhaverbeke Part of the advantages of using open innovation (compared to closed innovation) in corporate venturing can be explained by applying the real options approach. Open innovation in risk-laden activities such as corporate venturing has the following advantages: (i) benefits from early involvement in new technologies or business opportunities; (ii) delayed financial commitment; (iii) early exits reducing the downward losses; and (iv) delayed exit in case it spins off a venture. We furthermore argue that these benefits do not automatically materialize. Innovative firms have to learn new skills and routines to develop the full ,real option' potential of open innovation practices. [source] Shared Services Transformation: Conceptualization and Valuation from the Perspective of Real OptionsDECISION SCIENCES, Issue 3 2009Ning Su ABSTRACT In today's volatile global economy, where many organizations face severe pressure to downsize, the "shared services" model, in which a firm merges common functions performed by multiple units into a single service delivery organization, provides an innovative approach to make business more efficient and effective. To successfully implement shared services, firms need to strategically decide whether and how to pursue various service transformation alternatives such as simplification, standardization, consolidation, insourcing, or outsourcing. In this study, we develop the notion of real options into a unique theoretical lens for conceptualizing service organizations and their transformation in an uncertain business environment. Specifically, we view service organization as a set of strategic options that give the firm preferential access to future transformation opportunities. We create a taxonomy of these options, and introduce a decision methodology for valuing alternative shared services transformation approaches. We illustrate this methodology by applying it in a real business case to justify a global firm's decision regarding the transformation of its finance organization. [source] Patents and R&D as Real OptionsECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 1 2004Eduardo S. Schwartz This article develops and implements a simulation approach to value patents and patent-protected R&D projects based on the Real Options approach. It takes into account uncertainty in the cost-to-completion of the project, uncertainty in the cash flows to be generated from the project, and the possibility of catastrophic events that could put an end to the effort before it is completed. It also allows for the possibility of abandoning the project when costs turn out to be larger than expected or when estimated cash flows turn out to be smaller than anticipated. This abandonment option represents a very substantial part of the project's value when the project is marginal or/and when uncertainty is large. The model presented can be used to evaluate the effects of regulation on the cost of innovation and the amount on innovative output. The main focus of the article is the pharmaceutical industry. The framework, however, applies just as well to other research-intensive industries such as software or hardware development. (J.E.L.:G31, O22, O32). [source] Uncertainty, Real Options, and Cost Behavior: Evidence from Washington State HospitalsJOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 5 2005SANJAY KALLAPUR ABSTRACT This study tests an implication of the real-options theory of investment, that uncertainty leads firms to prefer technologies with low fixed and high variable costs. In 1983, a change in Medicare reimbursement increased the uncertainty of revenues for hospitals. Using a sample of 831 departments in 59 Washington State hospitals over the 1977,1994 period, we find that the ratio of variable to total costs increased after 1983. This increase is not attributable to a gradual increase in the ratio over time: We estimate a significant increase after 1983 even after controlling for a time trend. Further, we find a greater increase in the variable-to-total cost ratio for hospitals that had higher percentages of Medicare patients, increasing our confidence in the conclusion that the change in cost behavior is attributable to Medicare's change in reimbursement. [source] The Case for Real Options Made SimpleJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 2 2007Raul Guerrero [source] Realizing the Potential of Real Options: Does Theory Meet Practice?JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 2 2005Alexander Triantis The idea of viewing corporate investment opportunities as "real options" has been around for over 25 years. Real options concepts and techniques now routinely appear in academic research in finance and economics, and have begun to influence scholarly work in virtually every business discipline, including strategy, organizations, management science, operations management, information systems, accounting, and marketing. Real options concepts have also made considerable headway in practice. Corporate managers are more likely to recognize options in their strategic planning process, and have become more proactive in designing flexibility into projects and contracts, frequently using real options vocabulary in their discussions. Thanks in part to the spread of real options thinking, today's strategic planners are more likely than their predecessors to recognize the "option" value of actions like the following: , dividing up large projects into a number of stages; , investing in the acquisition or production of information; , introducing "modularity" in manufacturing and design; , developing competing prototypes for new products; and , investing in overseas markets. But if real options has clearly succeeded as a way of thinking, the application of real options valuation methods has been limited to companies in relatively few industries and has thus failed to live up to expectations created in the mid- to late-1990s. Increased corporate acceptance and implementations of real options valuation techniques will require several changes coming together. On the theory side, we need more realistic models that better reflect differences between financial and real options, simple heuristic methods that can be more easily implemented (but that have been carefully benchmarked against more precise models), and better guidance on implementation issues such as the estimation of discount rates for the "optionless" underlying projects. On the practitioner side, we need user-friendly real options software, more senior-level buy-in, more deliberate diffusion of real options knowledge throughout organizations, better alignment of managerial incentives with long-term shareholder value, and better-designed contracts to correct the misalignment of incentives across the value chain. If these challenges can be met, there will continue to be a steady if gradual diffusion of real options analysis throughout organizations over the next few decades, with real options eventually becoming not only a standard part of corporate strategic planning, but also the primary valuation tool for assessing the expected shareholder effect of large capital investment projects. [source] Real Options: Meeting the Georgetown ChallangeJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 2 2005Thomas E. Copeland In response to the demand for a single, generally accepted real options methodology, this article proposes a four-step process leading to a practical solution to most applications of real option analysis. The first step is familiar: calculate the standard net present value of the project assuming no managerial flexibility, which results in a value estimate (and a "branch" of a decision tree) for each year of the project's life. The second step estimates the volatility of the value of the project and produces a value tree designed to capture the main sources of uncertainty. Note that the authors focus on the uncertainty about overall project value, which is driven by uncertainty in revenue growth, operating margins, operating leverage, input costs, and technology. The key point here is that, in contrast to many real options approaches, none of these variables taken alone is assumed to be a reliable surrogate for the uncertainty of the project itself. For example, in assessing the option value of a proven oil reserve, the relevant measure of volatility is the volatility not of oil prices, but of the value of the operating entity,that is, the project value without leverage. The third step attempts to capture managerial flexibility using a decision "tree" that illustrates the decisions to be made, their possible outcomes, and their corresponding probabilities. The article illustrate various kinds of applications, including a phased investment in a chemical plant (which is treated as a compound option) and an investment in a peak-load power plant (a switching option with changing variance, which precludes the use of constant risk-neutral probabilities as in standard decision tree analysis). The fourth and final step uses a "no-arbitrage" approach to form a replicating portfolio with the same payouts as the real option. For most corporate investment projects, it is impossible to locate a "twin security" that trades in the market. In the absence of such a security, the conventional NPV of a project (again, without flexibility) is the best candidate for a perfectly correlated underlying asset because it represents management's best estimate of value based on the expected cash flows of the project. [source] Real Options, (Dis)Investment Decision-Making and Accounting Measures of PerformanceJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 3-4 2000Andrew W. Stark This paper suggests that a residual income-type measure of performance can be designed which supports optimal investment and disinvestment decision-making in a real options framework involving the options to wait before investing and to abandon. The measure has a number of advantages and disadvantages. Nonetheless, the balance of advantage versus disadvantage for the proposed measure must be set against the inadequacies of other competing measures of performance and associated organisational designs. Even if the measure of performance suggested is not regarded as practically useful, it has another general advantage , it can be used as a benchmark against which to evaluate other performance measures with regard to their support of optimal investment and disinvestment decision-making in a real options framework. [source] Platforms and Real Options in Industrial OrganizationTHE JAPANESE ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2000Ken-Ichi Imai We need a robust theory to analyse the dynamics of new industrial organizations that are being created by the explosion of information technology. This paper sets out a new theoretical perspective and suggests a new empirical framework towards formulating such a theory. The new conceptual tools of analysis presented here include the "platform" as a key element of new market structures, "real options" analysis to deal with genuine uncertainty, and an understanding of a new form of competition that takes place among different platforms. JEL Classification Numbers: L10, L12, L15, D81. [source] A Bayesian Approach to Real Options: The Case of Distinguishing between Temporary and Permanent ShocksTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 5 2010STEVEN R. GRENADIER ABSTRACT Traditional real options models demonstrate the importance of the "option to wait" due to uncertainty over future shocks to project cash flows. However, there is often another important source of uncertainty: uncertainty over the permanence of past shocks. Adding Bayesian uncertainty over the permanence of past shocks augments the traditional option to wait with an additional "option to learn." The implied investment behavior differs significantly from that in standard models. For example, investment may occur at a time of stable or decreasing cash flows, respond sluggishly to cash flow shocks, and depend on the timing of project cash flows. [source] Real Options, Product Market Competition, and Asset ReturnsTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 2 2009FELIPE L. AGUERREVERE ABSTRACT We study how competition in the product market affects the link between firms' real investment decisions and their asset return dynamics. In our model, assets in place and growth options have different sensitivities to market wide uncertainty. The strategic behavior of market participants influences the relative importance of these components of firm value. We show that the relationship between the degree of competition and assets' expected rates of return varies with product market demand. When demand is low, firms in more competitive industries earn higher returns, whereas when demand is high firms in more concentrated industries earn higher returns. [source] The Value of Embedded Real Options: Evidence from Consumer Automobile Lease ContractsTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 1 2007CARMELO GIACCOTTO ABSTRACT Under the common assumption of constant interest rates, we show that penalties for early termination of a lease are often structured in such a way that the cancellation option embedded in consumer automotive leases has little value. Furthermore, our estimates drawn from a sample of three popular car models over 1990 to 2000 indicate that the stand-alone value of the lease-end purchase option is, on average, about 16% of the market value of underlying used vehicles, or about $1,462 per contract. Finally, we examine the sensitivity of our option value estimates to model parameters and default risk. [source] Real options for precautionary fisheries managementFISH AND FISHERIES, Issue 2 2008Eli P Fenichel Abstract The 1996 Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) ,Guidelines on the Precautionary Approach to Fisheries and Species Introduction' raise important issues for fisheries managers, but fail to prescribe an approach for risk management. The distinguishing characteristics of the ,precautionary approach' are the inclusion of uncertainty and ,an elaboration on the burden of proof'. The FAO precautionary approach emphasizes that managers should be risk-averse, but does not provide tools for determining the appropriate degree of risk aversion. Consequently, application of the precautionary approach often leads to decision-making based on ad hoc safety margins. These safety margins are seldom chosen with explicit consideration of trade-offs. If the emphasis was shifted to choosing between competing uncertainties, then managers could manage risk. By attempting to avoid risk, managers may gain exposure to other risks and perhaps miss valuable opportunities. We place fishery management problems within the rubric of ,real investment' problems, and compare and contrast the consideration of risk by alternative investment frameworks. We show that traditional investment frameworks are inappropriate for fishery management, and furthermore, that traditional precautionary approaches are arbitrary and without basis in decision theory. Quantitative decision-making techniques, such as formal decision analysis (FDA), enable integration of competing hypotheses that help alleviate burden-of-proof issues. These techniques help analysts consider sources of uncertainty. FDA, however, can still be subject to arbitrary safety margins because such analyses often focus on determining which strategies best achieve, or avoid, targets that have been established without complete consideration of trade-offs. A managerial finance approach, real options analysis (ROA), is an alternative and complementary decision-making technique that enables managers to compute precautionary adjustments that couple the size of the ,safety margin' with the amount of uncertainty, thereby optimizing risk exposure and avoiding the need for arbitrary safety margins. We illustrate the advantages of an approach that combines FDA and ROA, using a heuristic example about a decision to re-introduce Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) into Lake Ontario. Finally, we provide guidance on applying ROA to other fishery problems. The precautionary approach requires that managers consider risk, but considering risk is not the same as managing it. Here ROA is useful. [source] Auditing in the Presence of Outside Sources of InformationJOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 3 2001Mark Bagnoli We examine how an auditor's ability to terminate a multi-period client relationship provides the auditor with a real option whose value depends on the nature of informational asymmetry between the incumbent and other potential auditors. In particular, we isolate conditions under which the auditor's private and public sources of information behave as complements rather than substitutes. In such circumstances, increasing the likelihood of publicly provided information induces the auditor to expend more (rather than less)resources in private information gathering activities. [source] Real Options: Meeting the Georgetown ChallangeJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 2 2005Thomas E. Copeland In response to the demand for a single, generally accepted real options methodology, this article proposes a four-step process leading to a practical solution to most applications of real option analysis. The first step is familiar: calculate the standard net present value of the project assuming no managerial flexibility, which results in a value estimate (and a "branch" of a decision tree) for each year of the project's life. The second step estimates the volatility of the value of the project and produces a value tree designed to capture the main sources of uncertainty. Note that the authors focus on the uncertainty about overall project value, which is driven by uncertainty in revenue growth, operating margins, operating leverage, input costs, and technology. The key point here is that, in contrast to many real options approaches, none of these variables taken alone is assumed to be a reliable surrogate for the uncertainty of the project itself. For example, in assessing the option value of a proven oil reserve, the relevant measure of volatility is the volatility not of oil prices, but of the value of the operating entity,that is, the project value without leverage. The third step attempts to capture managerial flexibility using a decision "tree" that illustrates the decisions to be made, their possible outcomes, and their corresponding probabilities. The article illustrate various kinds of applications, including a phased investment in a chemical plant (which is treated as a compound option) and an investment in a peak-load power plant (a switching option with changing variance, which precludes the use of constant risk-neutral probabilities as in standard decision tree analysis). The fourth and final step uses a "no-arbitrage" approach to form a replicating portfolio with the same payouts as the real option. For most corporate investment projects, it is impossible to locate a "twin security" that trades in the market. In the absence of such a security, the conventional NPV of a project (again, without flexibility) is the best candidate for a perfectly correlated underlying asset because it represents management's best estimate of value based on the expected cash flows of the project. [source] The Effect of the Real Option to Transfer on the Value of Guaranteed Minimum Death BenefitsJOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE, Issue 1 2006Eric R. UlmArticle first published online: 24 FEB 200 Variable annuity contracts frequently have many options and option-like features embedded in the contracts. Some are obvious, such as guaranteed minimum death benefits (GMDBs), while others are less obviously option-like. In this article, we consider the effect of the real option to transfer funds between fixed and variable accounts. If a GMDB rider is considered in isolation, it is sometimes in the policyholder's interest to transfer to the fixed fund if the fixed fund earns less than the variable fund in a risk-neutral world. On the other hand, the option to transfer will not be used if the entire annuity and rider are considered together. [source] Understanding the Advantages of Open Innovation Practices in Corporate Venturing in Terms of Real OptionsCREATIVITY AND INNOVATION MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2008Wim Vanhaverbeke Part of the advantages of using open innovation (compared to closed innovation) in corporate venturing can be explained by applying the real options approach. Open innovation in risk-laden activities such as corporate venturing has the following advantages: (i) benefits from early involvement in new technologies or business opportunities; (ii) delayed financial commitment; (iii) early exits reducing the downward losses; and (iv) delayed exit in case it spins off a venture. We furthermore argue that these benefits do not automatically materialize. Innovative firms have to learn new skills and routines to develop the full ,real option' potential of open innovation practices. [source] Risk Uncertainty and Supply Chain Decisions: A Real Options PerspectiveDECISION SCIENCES, Issue 3 2010G. Tomas M. Hult ABSTRACT Supply chain risk uncertainty can create severe repercussions, thus it is not surprising that research interest in supply chain risk has been growing. While extant inquiry is informative, there is a lack of investigations that center on supply chain investment decisions when facing high levels of risk uncertainty. Given the potential dollar value involved in these decisions, an understanding of how these supply chain decisions are made is of significant theoretical and practical importance. Real options theory, with its focus on decision making under conditions of uncertainty, is an appealing theoretical lens for this endeavor. In essence, real options theory asserts that managerial decisions center on creating and then exercising or not exercising certain opportunities. To date, theorizing about and investigations of real options have used firms as their focus. Not yet examined are real options within supply chains that cross firm boundaries and drive much of the competitive activity in the modern economy. Accordingly, we extend real options theory to the supply chain context by examining how different types of options are approached relative to supply chain project investments. Specifically, we theorize how the options will be related to perceived value under conditions of high supply chain risk uncertainty. Overall, our investigation builds knowledge by extending real options theory to the supply chain context and by providing evidence suggesting some options operate differently in supply chains than they do in firms. [source] Shared Services Transformation: Conceptualization and Valuation from the Perspective of Real OptionsDECISION SCIENCES, Issue 3 2009Ning Su ABSTRACT In today's volatile global economy, where many organizations face severe pressure to downsize, the "shared services" model, in which a firm merges common functions performed by multiple units into a single service delivery organization, provides an innovative approach to make business more efficient and effective. To successfully implement shared services, firms need to strategically decide whether and how to pursue various service transformation alternatives such as simplification, standardization, consolidation, insourcing, or outsourcing. In this study, we develop the notion of real options into a unique theoretical lens for conceptualizing service organizations and their transformation in an uncertain business environment. Specifically, we view service organization as a set of strategic options that give the firm preferential access to future transformation opportunities. We create a taxonomy of these options, and introduce a decision methodology for valuing alternative shared services transformation approaches. We illustrate this methodology by applying it in a real business case to justify a global firm's decision regarding the transformation of its finance organization. [source] Investment in antiviral drugs: a real options approachHEALTH ECONOMICS, Issue 10 2010Arthur E. Attema Abstract Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations from expected utility are presented. We show that risk aversion counteracts the tendency to delay investment for this case of precautionary investment, which is in contrast to earlier applications of risk aversion to real options analysis. Moreover, we provide a numerical example using real world data and discuss the implications of real options analysis for health policy. Suggestions for further extensions of the model and a comparison with the expected value of information analysis are put forward. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Life Sciences Roundtable: Strategy and FinancingJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 2 2009Judy Lewent In light of the challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry, a distinguished group of pharma executives and strategic and financial advisers discusses the following corporate decisions: Strategy: What business model is most likely to maximize long-term shareholder value? For example, is diversification by big pharma into areas like consumer healthcare and generics a reliable way to create sustainable value? Capital allocation: What are the best methods for evaluating investments in pharma R&D, and for deciding which programs should be terminated and which assets divested? If conventional DCF isn't much help in a world where R&D outcomes are so uncertain, what about proposed models like real options? Corporate governance and incentive systems: Should big pharma continue to outsource ever more of its R&D functions to biotech and venture capital? Or can it overcome the problems associated with size by creating more decentralized business units and trying to replicate the accountability and incentives of smaller biotech firms? Capital structure and payout policy: Are the large cash and equity positions and minimal payouts of big pharma, typically justified as cushioning the uncertainties associated with pharma R&D, likely to be the value-maximizing capital structure in the future? With many biotechs struggling and venture capital scarce, where are the new sources of capital for the industry? And can future deals be structured in ways that help bring about higher returns for big pharma as well as the R&D providers? Disclosure: What should management tell investors to help ensure that their companies' policies and promising investments are reflected in their stock prices? [source] Realizing the Potential of Real Options: Does Theory Meet Practice?JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 2 2005Alexander Triantis The idea of viewing corporate investment opportunities as "real options" has been around for over 25 years. Real options concepts and techniques now routinely appear in academic research in finance and economics, and have begun to influence scholarly work in virtually every business discipline, including strategy, organizations, management science, operations management, information systems, accounting, and marketing. Real options concepts have also made considerable headway in practice. Corporate managers are more likely to recognize options in their strategic planning process, and have become more proactive in designing flexibility into projects and contracts, frequently using real options vocabulary in their discussions. Thanks in part to the spread of real options thinking, today's strategic planners are more likely than their predecessors to recognize the "option" value of actions like the following: , dividing up large projects into a number of stages; , investing in the acquisition or production of information; , introducing "modularity" in manufacturing and design; , developing competing prototypes for new products; and , investing in overseas markets. But if real options has clearly succeeded as a way of thinking, the application of real options valuation methods has been limited to companies in relatively few industries and has thus failed to live up to expectations created in the mid- to late-1990s. Increased corporate acceptance and implementations of real options valuation techniques will require several changes coming together. On the theory side, we need more realistic models that better reflect differences between financial and real options, simple heuristic methods that can be more easily implemented (but that have been carefully benchmarked against more precise models), and better guidance on implementation issues such as the estimation of discount rates for the "optionless" underlying projects. On the practitioner side, we need user-friendly real options software, more senior-level buy-in, more deliberate diffusion of real options knowledge throughout organizations, better alignment of managerial incentives with long-term shareholder value, and better-designed contracts to correct the misalignment of incentives across the value chain. If these challenges can be met, there will continue to be a steady if gradual diffusion of real options analysis throughout organizations over the next few decades, with real options eventually becoming not only a standard part of corporate strategic planning, but also the primary valuation tool for assessing the expected shareholder effect of large capital investment projects. [source] STRATEGY AND SHAREHOLDER VALUE CREATION: THE REAL OPTIONS FRONTIERJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 2 2000Martha Amram The current interest in real options reflects the dramatic increase in the uncertainty of the business environment. Viewed narrowly, the real options approach is the extension of financial option pricing models to the valuation of options on real (that is, nonfinancial) assets. More broadly, the real options approach is a way of thinking that helps managers formulate their strategic options,the future opportunities that are created by today's investments,while considering their likely effect on shareholder value. But if the real options framework promises to link strategy more closely to shareholder value creation, there are some major challenges on the frontier of application. In the first part of this paper, the authors tackle the question, "What is really new about real options, and how does the approach differ from other wellestablished ways to make strategic decisions under uncertainty?" This article provides a specific definition of real options that relies on the ability to track marketpriced risk. Using examples from oil exploration and pharmaceutical drug development, the authors also show how specific features of the industry and the application itself determine the usefulness of the real options approach. The second part of the paper addresses the question: Given the many differences between real and financial options, how should a real options application be framed? The authors examine the use of real options in the valuation of Internet companies to demonstrate the required judgment and tradeoffs in the framing of real options applications. The case of Webvan, an online grocer, is used to illustrate the inter-action between strategy, execution, and valuation. [source] THE PROMISE OF REAL OPTIONSJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 2 2000Aswath Damodaran In recent years, both practitioners and academics have argued that traditional discounted cash flow models do a poor job of capturing the value of the options embedded in many corporate actions. This paper shows how option pricing models used in valuing financial assets can be used to value three kinds of real options that are often built into corporate projects: the option to delay, the option to expand, and the option to abandon. As a number of examples in this paper suggest, corporate investments that would be rejected using conventional DCF analysis can sometimes be justified by the value of the strategic options they provide. As the illustrations also show, however, the pricing of real options is considerably more difficult than the pricing of financial options and adjustments must often be made to capture the complexity of real investments. [source] Optimal farm size in an uncertain land market: the case of Kyrgyz RepublicAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 2009Sara Savastano Option value theory; Farm size; Uncertainty; Irreversibility Abstract This article applies a real options model to the problem of land development. Making use of the 1998,2001 Kyrgyz Household Budget Survey, we show that when the hypothesis of decreasing return to scale holds, the relation between the threshold value of revenue per hectare and the amount of land cultivated is positive. In addition, the relation between the threshold and the amount of land owned is positive in the case of continuous supply of land and negative when there is discontinuous supply of land. The direct consequence is that, in the first case, smaller farms will be more willing to rent land and exercise the option where, in the second case, larger farms will exercise first. The results suggest three main conclusions: (i) the combination of uncertainty and irreversibility is an important factor in land development decisions, (ii) farmer behavior is consistent with the continuous profit maximization model, and (iii) farming unit revenue tends to be positively related to farm size, once uncertainty is properly accounted for. [source] Technology choice under changing peanut policiesAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2005T. Jeffrey Price Marketing quotas; Price supports; Real option value; Technology adoption Abstract The effect of marketing quotas and price supports on technology adoption are examined for peanut production in the southeastern United States using a real options model of investment with output price and yield uncertainty. The optimal choice of peanut production technology (dryland versus irrigated) in the southeast is shown to depend on price supports and how they change. The manner in which price supports change will have an effect on the choice and rates of abandonment or adoption of production technologies. [source] Joint venture evolution: extending the real options approachMANAGERIAL AND DECISION ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2008Jing Li Real options theory has emerged as a promising avenue to study joint venture (JV) evolution as a strategic response to managing uncertainty. We extend the real options approach by integrating it with game theory. Such a combined method enriches the valuation functions of each partnering firm and helps to identify the optimal decisions for exercising options in a JV. In our model, each firm's synergy from the joint operation and its knowledge acquisition capability (KAC) can significantly influence the competitive dynamics between partners, potentially affecting how each firm decides to acquire, divest, or dissolve. We employ a new solution technique in real options theory to capture the stochastic process of three factors, and use computer simulation to test the model under varying conditions. The results are stated in five testable propositions, providing a better understanding of the dynamics of a JV. We find that symmetries between partners in synergy or KAC contribute to stability or dissolution of the JV, whereas asymmetries in synergy or KAC make acquisition of the JV assets by one partner desirable. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||