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Private Consumption (private + consumption)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting100%

Selected Abstracts

Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption?

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 3 2005
Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area, Theory
In this paper, we revisit the effects of government spending shocks on private consumption which have been at centre stage of the macroeconomic policy debate for quite a long time. We conduct our analysis in an estimated model of the euro area, which is representative of a new generation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models usable for quantitative policy analysis. We show that the inclusion of non-Ricardian households, which simply consume their current disposable income, is in general conducive to raising the level of consumption in response to government spending shocks when compared with a benchmark specification without non-Ricardian households. However, we find that there is only a fairly small chance that government spending shocks crowd in consumption, mainly because the estimated share of non-Ricardian households is relatively low, but also because of the large negative wealth effect induced by the highly persistent nature of government spending shocks. [source]

Cointegration, Government Spending and Private Consumption: Evidence from Japan

THE JAPANESE ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 2 2004
Tsung-Wu Ho
Assuming a CRRA preference, this paper shows that there is a cointegration restriction implied by the intra-temporal first-order condition in the consumption function. This restriction predicts a cointegrated system of government consumption, private consumption, and their relative price. Our analysis indicates that, first, Johansen's VECM confirms the theoretical prediction that is supported by the data of Japan; moreover, Bierens' (1997) nonparametric estimator severely contradicts with the theoretical model and fits the data poorly; second, Japanese people have increasing willingness to rearrange their consumption over time. Besides, the intratemporal relationship between private and government consumption remains relatively stable over time. [source]

The Intratemporal Substitution between Government Spending and Private Consumption: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 3 2001
Ru-Lin ChiuArticle first published online: 18 DEC 200
In this paper, we investigate the idea that a general model of consumption should allow for the direct effect of government consumption. We show, given an assumed preference specification, that there is a cointegration restriction implied by an intraperiod first-order condition of the model. This restriction leads to a linear deterministic cointegrated system of government consumption, private consumption and their relative price that is consistent with the data for Taiwan. The intratemporal elasticity of substitution between government and private consumption is estimated to be about 1.1. Overall, we find consistent empirical evidence in support of our model. [source]

Social Insurance and the Public Budget

ECONOMICA, Issue 275 2002
Torben M. Andersen
Restraints on the public budget may limit the ability of the public sector to use financial markets for the diversification of shocks. This interferes with the role of the public budget as a buffer which may provide insurance by stabilizing income and thereby private consumption. We consider this insurance or stabilizing role of public budgets and show why pro-cyclical budgets and a progressive taxation system may be optimal even when tax distortions are taken into account. Balanced budget restrictions interfere with this insurance effect, and they do not necessarily imply that a lower level of public consumption is optimal. [source]

Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption?

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 3 2005
Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area, Theory
In this paper, we revisit the effects of government spending shocks on private consumption which have been at centre stage of the macroeconomic policy debate for quite a long time. We conduct our analysis in an estimated model of the euro area, which is representative of a new generation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models usable for quantitative policy analysis. We show that the inclusion of non-Ricardian households, which simply consume their current disposable income, is in general conducive to raising the level of consumption in response to government spending shocks when compared with a benchmark specification without non-Ricardian households. However, we find that there is only a fairly small chance that government spending shocks crowd in consumption, mainly because the estimated share of non-Ricardian households is relatively low, but also because of the large negative wealth effect induced by the highly persistent nature of government spending shocks. [source]

Traditional versus unobserved components methods to forecast quarterly national account aggregates

JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 2 2007
Gustavo A. Marrero
Abstract We aim to assess the ability of two alternative forecasting procedures to predict quarterly national account (QNA) aggregates. The application of Box,Jenkins techniques to observed data constitutes the basis of traditional ARIMA and transfer function methods (BJ methods). The alternative procedure exploits the information of unobserved high- and low-frequency components of time series (UC methods). An informal examination of empirical evidence suggests that the relationships between QNA aggregates and coincident indicators are often clearly different for diverse frequencies. Under these circumstances, a Monte Carlo experiment shows that UC methods significantly improve the forecasting accuracy of BJ procedures if coincident indicators play an important role in such predictions. Otherwise (i.e., under univariate procedures), BJ methods tend to be more accurate than the UC alternative, although the differences are small. We illustrate these findings with several applications from the Spanish economy with regard to industrial production, private consumption, business investment and exports.,,Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Government Spending and the Taylor Principle

JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, Issue 1 2009
GISLE JAMES NATVIK
public expenditures; Taylor principle; fiscal policy rules; rule-of-thumb consumers This paper explores how government size affects the scope for equilibrium indeterminacy in a New Keynesian economy, where part of the population live hand-to-mouth. The main result is that a higher level of public consumption is likely to generate indeterminacy and render the Taylor principle insufficient as criterion for equilibrium uniqueness. This holds even though fiscal policy serves to reduce swings in current income. Only if government consumption is a substitute for private consumption, will it narrow the scope for indeterminacy. Hence monetary policy should be conducted with an eye to the amount and composition of government consumption. [source]

THE ASTONISHING REGULARITY OF SERVICE EMPLOYMENT EXPANSION

METROECONOMICA, Issue 3 2007
Ronald Schettkat
ABSTRACT An update of Victor Fuchs analysis shows an astonishing regularity of the relationship between per capita income and service industry employment. The two major theoretical hypotheses for the growth of the service sector, shifts in final demand towards services and the technological stagnancy of services, are then analyzed. Theories achieve simplicity and clarity from radical assumptions and it is therefore not surprising that empirically both dimensions are relevant. Shifts in final demand to services,especially of private consumption, however, gained importance over the last decades indicating a fundamental change of the division of labor: the marketization of household production, which is analyzed finally. [source]

PUBLIC DEBT AS PRIVATE WEALTH: SOME EQUILIBRIUM CONSIDERATIONS

METROECONOMICA, Issue 4 2006
Article first published online: 13 NOV 200, Ekkehart Schlicht
ABSTRACT Government bonds are interest-bearing assets. Increasing public debt increases wealth, income and consumption demand. The smaller government expenditure is, the larger consumption demand must be in equilibrium, and the larger must be public debt. Conversely, lower public debt implies higher government spending and taxation. Public debt plays, thus, an important role in establishing equilibrium. It distributes output between consumers and government. In case of insufficient demand, a larger public debt entails higher private consumption and less public spending. If upper bounds on public debt are introduced (as in the Maastricht treaty), such constraints place lower bounds on taxation and public spending and may rule out macroeconomic equilibrium. As an aside, a minor flaw in Domar's (American Economic Review, 34 (4), pp. 798,827) classical analysis is corrected. [source]

Are Private Sector Consumption Decisions Affected by Public Sector Consumption?

THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 239 2001
Ólan T. Henry
This paper looks at the interaction between public and private consumption in Australia. The results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relation between private and public consumption. However, the nature of this relation changed during the 1980s from one of complementarity to one of substitutability. [source]

Cointegration, Government Spending and Private Consumption: Evidence from Japan

THE JAPANESE ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 2 2004
Tsung-Wu Ho
Assuming a CRRA preference, this paper shows that there is a cointegration restriction implied by the intra-temporal first-order condition in the consumption function. This restriction predicts a cointegrated system of government consumption, private consumption, and their relative price. Our analysis indicates that, first, Johansen's VECM confirms the theoretical prediction that is supported by the data of Japan; moreover, Bierens' (1997) nonparametric estimator severely contradicts with the theoretical model and fits the data poorly; second, Japanese people have increasing willingness to rearrange their consumption over time. Besides, the intratemporal relationship between private and government consumption remains relatively stable over time. [source]

The Intratemporal Substitution between Government Spending and Private Consumption: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 3 2001
Ru-Lin ChiuArticle first published online: 18 DEC 200
In this paper, we investigate the idea that a general model of consumption should allow for the direct effect of government consumption. We show, given an assumed preference specification, that there is a cointegration restriction implied by an intraperiod first-order condition of the model. This restriction leads to a linear deterministic cointegrated system of government consumption, private consumption and their relative price that is consistent with the data for Taiwan. The intratemporal elasticity of substitution between government and private consumption is estimated to be about 1.1. Overall, we find consistent empirical evidence in support of our model. [source]

Imperfect Tax Compliance and the Optimal Provision of Public Goods

BULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 1 2003
Alessandro Balestrino
Our aim in this paper is to investigate whether the presence of imperfect income tax compliance affects the optimal provision of public goods within a framework in which public expenditure is financed by a general income tax that also accomplishes redistributive goals. We first derive the income tax structure, and then a generalized Samuelson rule. We argue that, under imperfect income tax compliance, it is desirable to distort public,good supply downwards, in the sense that the sum of marginal rates of substitution between public and private consumption must exceed their marginal rate of transformation. [source]