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Premia
Kinds of Premia Selected AbstractsExcess Risk Premia of Asian BanksINTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCE, Issue 2 2000Jianping (J.P.) Mei This paper develops a framework for gauging the risks of emerging market banks by using stock market data. Employing a multifactor asset pricing model that allows for time-varying risk premia, we find the presence of large excess risk premia on Asian bank stocks, especially in those markets affected by the Asian financial crisis. We find that the excess risk premia appear to be negatively related to the degree of economic freedom of a country but positively related to its corruption level. Thus, our findings are consistent with the view that crony capitalism in Asia may have distorted the market mechanism or the systematic risk exposure of banks. This suggests that the excess risk premium provides useful information on risk exposure for opaque banking systems where quality accounting information is not available. [source] Model Specification and Risk Premia: Evidence from Futures OptionsTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 3 2007MARK BROADIE ABSTRACT This paper examines model specification issues and estimates diffusive and jump risk premia using S&P futures option prices from 1987 to 2003. We first develop a time series test to detect the presence of jumps in volatility, and find strong evidence in support of their presence. Next, using the cross section of option prices, we find strong evidence for jumps in prices and modest evidence for jumps in volatility based on model fit. The evidence points toward economically and statistically significant jump risk premia, which are important for understanding option returns. [source] Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent?THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 5 2001Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic, International Stock Markets The returns earned by U.S. equities since 1926 exceed estimates derived from theory, from other periods and markets, and from surveys of institutional investors. Rather than examine historic experience, we estimate the equity premium from the discount rate that equates market valuations with prevailing expectations of future flows. The accounting flows we project are isomorphic to projected dividends but use more available information and narrow the range of reasonable growth rates. For each year between 1985 and 1998, we find that the equity premium is around three percent (or less) in the United States and five other markets. [source] WAGE PENALTIES AND SEXUAL ORIENTATION: AN UPDATE USING THE GENERAL SOCIAL SURVEYCONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 2 2009BRENDAN CUSHING-DANIELS This study uses data from the 1988 to 2006 General Social Survey (GSS) to examine the effects of sexual orientation on earnings. Previous research using the GSS has found that lesbians earn 18%,23% more than similarly qualified heterosexual women and that wage penalties for gay men are slightly larger than the premia for lesbians. Using behavioral definitions of sexual orientation based on the previous year and the previous 5 yr of sexual activity, we find the familiar wage premia/penalties for lesbian/gay workers in our ordinary least squares estimations, but we find that these wage differences are falling over time. Furthermore, in contrast to the earlier results, for our regressions over the entire sample period, correcting for differential selection into full-time work reduces the estimated penalties for unmarried gay men and eliminates the entire wage premium for all lesbians. There is now a sizeable, though imprecisely measured, penalty for some lesbians. (JEL J1, J3, J7) [source] Analysing Macro-Poverty Linkages of External Liberalisation: Gaps, Achievements and AlternativesDEVELOPMENT POLICY REVIEW, Issue 3 2005Bernhard G. Gunter CGE modelling has dominated analysis of the impact of external liberalisation on poverty. This article provides a structuralist critique of standard neo-classical CGE models. It highlights five sets of gaps and partial achievements in the modelling of issues affecting the poverty impact of macroeconomic policies: duality and structural rigidities; efficiency gains and quota rents; the investment and savings specification; the nature of public expenditures; and the modelling of financial fragility, risk premia and issues of credibility. It outlines a model that makes it possible to analyse more plausible stories about the impact of both current and capital account liberalisation and questions the realism of existing approaches to ex-ante poverty impact assessment. [source] Efficiency, Equilibrium, and Asset Pricing with Risk of DefaultECONOMETRICA, Issue 4 2000Fernando Alvarez We introduce a new equilibrium concept and study its efficiency and asset pricing implications for the environment analyzed by Kehoe and Levine (1993) and Kocherlakota (1996). Our equilibrium concept has complete markets and endogenous solvency constraints. These solvency constraints prevent default at the cost of reducing risk sharing. We show versions of the welfare theorems. We characterize the preferences and endowments that lead to equilibria with incomplete risk sharing. We compare the resulting pricing kernel with the one for economies without participation constraints: interest rates are lower and risk premia depend on the covariance of the idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Additionally, we show that asset prices depend only on the valuation of agents with substantial idiosyncratic risk. [source] Efficiency in the Pricing of the FTSE 100 Futures ContractEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2001Joëlle Miffre This paper studies the pricing efficiency in the FTSE 100 futures contract by linking the predictable movements in futures returns to the time-varying risk and risk premia associated with prespecified factors. The results indicate that the predictability of the FTSE 100 futures returns is consistent with a conditional multifactor model with time-varying moments. The dynamics of the factor risk premia, combined with the variation in the betas, capture most of the predictable variance of returns, leaving little variation to be explained in terms of market inefficiency. Hence the predictive power of the instruments does not justify a rejection of market efficiency. [source] An explanation of the forward premium ,puzzle'EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2000Richard Roll Existing literature reports a puzzle about the forward rate premium over the spot foreign exchange rate. The premium is often negatively correlated with subsequent changes in the spot rate. This defies economic intuition and possibly violates market efficiency. Rational explanations include non-stationary risk premia and econometric mis-specifications, but some embrace the puzzle as a guide to profitable trading. We suggest there is really no puzzle. A simple model fits the data: forward exchange rates are unbiased predictors of subsequent spot rates. The puzzle arises because the forward rate, the spot rate, and the forward premium follow nearly non-stationary time series processes. We document these properties with an extended sample and show why they give the delusion of a puzzle. [source] A Required Yield Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Treasury Yield DeterminationFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 1 2009Christophe Faugère Stock market valuation and Treasury yield determination are consistent with the Fisher effect (1896) as generalized by Darby (1975) and Feldstein (1976). The U.S. stock market (S&P 500) is priced to yield ex-ante a real after-tax return directly related to real long-term GDP/capita growth (the required yield). Elements of our theory show that: (1) real after-tax Treasury and S&P 500 forward earnings yields are stationary processes around positive means; (2) the stock market is indeed priced as the present value of expected dividends with the proviso that investors are expecting fast mean reversion of the S&P 500 nominal growth opportunities to zero. Moreover, (3) the equity premium is mostly due to business cycle risk and is a direct function of below trend expected productivity, where productivity is measured by the growth in book value of S&P 500 equity per-share. Inflation and fear-based risk premia only have a secondary impact on the premium. The premium is always positive or zero with respect to long-term Treasuries. It may be negative for short-term Treasuries when short-term productivity outpaces medium and long run trends. Consequently: (4) Treasury yields are mostly determined in reference to the required yield and the business cycle risk premium; (5) the yield spread is largely explained by the differential of long-term book value per share growth vs. near term growth, with possible yield curve inversions. Finally, (6) the Fed model is partially validated since both the S&P 500 forward earnings yield and the ten-year Treasury yield are determined by a common factor: the required yield. [source] Financial Intermediaries and Interest Rate Risk: IIFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 5 2006Sotiris K. Staikouras The current work extends and updates the previous survey (Staikouras, 2003) by looking at other aspects of the financial institutions' yield sensitivity. The study starts with an extensive discussion of the origins of asset-liability management and the subsequent work to identify effective ways of measuring and managing interest rate risk. The discussion implicates both regulatory and market-based approaches along with any issues surrounding their applicability. The literature is enriched by recognizing that structural and regulatory shifts affect financial institutions in different ways depending on the size and nature of their activities. It is also noted that such shifts could change the bank's riskiness, and force banks to adjust their balance sheet size by altering their maturity intermediation function. Besides yield changes, market cycles are also held responsible for asymmetric effects on corporate values. Furthermore, nonstandard investigations are considered, where embedded options and basis risk are significant above and beyond the intermediary's rate sensitivity, while shocks to the slope of the yield curve is identified as a new variable. When the discount privilege is modeled as an option, it is shown that its value is incorporated in the equities of qualifying banks. Finally, volatility clustering is further established while constant relative risk aversion is not present in the U.S. market. Although some empirical findings may be quite mixed, there is a general consensus that all forms of systematic risk, risk premia, and the risk-return trade-off do exhibit some form of variability, not only over time but also across corporate sizes and segments. [source] Price and Volatility Transmission across BordersFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 3 2006Louis Gagnon Over the past forty years, financial markets throughout the world have steadily become more open to foreign investors. With open markets, asset prices are determined globally. A vast literature on portfolio choice and asset pricing has evolved to study the importance of global factors as well as local factors as determinants of portfolio choice and of expected returns on risky assets. There is growing evidence that risk premia are increasingly determined globally. An important outcome of this force of globalization is increased comovement in asset prices across markets. This survey study examines the literature on the dynamics of comovements in asset prices and volatility across markets around the world. The literature began in the 1970s in conjunction with early theoretical developments on international asset pricing models, but it blossomed in the late 1980s and early 1990s with the availability of comprehensive international stock market databases and the development of econometric methodology to model these dynamics. [source] Size and momentum in European equity markets: empirical findings from varying beta Capital Asset Pricing ModelACCOUNTING & FINANCE, Issue 1 2010George Karathanasis G14; G15 Abstract We use securities listed on 13 European equity markets to form size and momentum portfolios. We find limited evidence of a size premium but significant momentum returns in eight sample markets. We find that these premia may not constitute an anomaly because they are consistent with a varying-beta Capital Asset Pricing Model. We also show that systematic risk is related to the business cycle. Furthermore, the results suggest that although size and especially momentum returns are significant, it would be difficult to exploit them in the short to medium run, because they are positive and sizeable in very few years in our sample. [source] Monetary policy's effects during the financial crises in Brazil and KoreaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2003Charles Goodhart This paper looks at the effect of monetary policy changes on asset prices in the foreign exchange and equity markets of Brazil and Korea. We were searching for evidence whether monetary policy tightening may have had (adverse) counterproductive effects on such asset markets. In common with other authors we find only weak or sporadic evidence for this hypothesis. Using a theoretical model of financial market imperfections, we show that the failure to find monetary policy effectiveness during a crisis can come about not only because of the endogeneity caused by a ,leaning against the wind' policy reaction but also, independently, if there are large and correlated risk premia in the financial markets in which interest rates and determined. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Excess Risk Premia of Asian BanksINTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCE, Issue 2 2000Jianping (J.P.) Mei This paper develops a framework for gauging the risks of emerging market banks by using stock market data. Employing a multifactor asset pricing model that allows for time-varying risk premia, we find the presence of large excess risk premia on Asian bank stocks, especially in those markets affected by the Asian financial crisis. We find that the excess risk premia appear to be negatively related to the degree of economic freedom of a country but positively related to its corruption level. Thus, our findings are consistent with the view that crony capitalism in Asia may have distorted the market mechanism or the systematic risk exposure of banks. This suggests that the excess risk premium provides useful information on risk exposure for opaque banking systems where quality accounting information is not available. [source] Option Market Efficiency and Analyst RecommendationsJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 5-6 2010James S. Doran Abstract:, This paper examines the information content in option markets surrounding analyst recommendation changes. The sample includes 6,119 recommendation changes for optionable stocks over the period January 1996 through December 2005. As expected, mean underlying asset returns are positive (negative) on days of recommendation upgrades (downgrades). However, volatility levels and shifts prior to recommendation changes explain a significant portion of underlying asset price responses. Ex-ante price and volatility responses in option markets are linked to increased jump uncertainty risk premia. Our findings suggest information in option markets leads analyst recommendation changes, implying revisions contain less information than previously thought. [source] Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys SayJOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 1 2000Ronald MacDonald This paper attempts to provide a logical overview of the literature which exploits survey data to examine issues of expectations formation and risk aversion in financial markets. Our survey suggests that: short term expectations are excessively volatile and exhibit bandwagon effects, while longer term expectations appear to be regressive and therefore stabilising; in bond and foreign exchange markets the standard result of forward rate biasedness is due in part to time-varying premia; recent research using disaggregate foreign exchange survey data demonstrates the importance of heterogeneous expectations. [source] Term premia and the maturity composition of the Federal debt: new evidence from the term structure of interest ratesJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 7 2001Basma Bekdache Abstract This paper models bond term premia empirically in terms of the maturity composition of the federal debt and other observable economic variables in a time-varying framework with potential regime shifts. We present regression and out-of sample forecasting results demonstrating that information on the age composition of the Federal debt is useful for forecasting term premia. We show that the multiprocess mixture model, a multi-state time-varying parameter model, outperforms the commonly used GARCH model in out-of-sample forecasts of term premia. The results underscore the importance of modelling term premia, as a function of economic variables rather than just as a function of asset covariances as in the conditional heteroscedasticity models. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Small producers, supermarkets, and the role of intermediaries in Turkey's fresh fruit and vegetable marketAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 2009Céline Bignebat Supermarkets; Small farmers; Fresh fruit and vegetables; Turkey Abstract A wide range of empirical studies show the extent to which the rise of supermarkets in developing countries transforms domestic marketing channels. In many countries, the exclusion of small producers from so-called dynamic marketing channels (that is, remunerative ones) has become a concern. Based on data collected in Turkey in 2007 at the producer and the wholesale market levels, we show that intermediaries are important to understanding the impact of downstream restructuring (supermarkets) on upstream decisions (producers). Results show first that producers are not aware of the final buyer of their produce, because intermediaries hinder the visibility of the marketing channel, thereby restricting a producer's choice to that of the first intermediary. Econometric results show that producers who are indirectly linked to the supermarkets are more sensitive to their requirements in terms of quality and packaging than to the price premia compensating the effort made to meet standards. Therefore, the results lead us to question the role of the wholesale market agents who act as a buffer in the chain and protect small producers from negative shocks, but who stop positive shocks as well, and thereby reduce incentives. [source] Do counter-cyclical payments in the 2002 US Farm Act create incentives to produce?,AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 2-3 2004Jesús Antón Abstract Analytical results in the literature suggest that counter-cyclical payments create risk-related incentives to produce even if they are ,decoupled' under certainty [Hennessy, D. A., 1998. The production effects of agricultural income support polices under uncertainty. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 80, 46,57]. This paper develops a framework to assess the risk-related incentives to produce created by commodity programmes like the loan deficiency payments (LDPs) and the counter-cyclical payments (CCPs) in the 2002 US Farm Act. Because CCPs are paid based on fixed production quantities they have a weaker risk-reducing impact than LDPs. The latter have a direct impact through the variance of the producer price distributions, while the impact of CCPs is due only to the covariance between the CCP and the producer price distributions. The methodology developed by [Chavas, J.-P., Holt, M. T., 1990. Acreage decisions under risk: the case of corn and soybeans. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 72 (3), 529,538] is applied to calculate the appropriate variance-covariance matrix of the truncated producer price distributions under the 2002 Farm Act. Risk premia are computed showing that the risk-related incentives created by CCPs are significant and do not disappear for levels of production above the base production on which CCPs are paid. [source] Wage Inequality, Employment Structure and Skill-biased Change in ItalyLABOUR, Issue 2008Paolo Naticchioni Applying quantile decomposition analysis, we point out that changes in wage inequality are mainly driven by a decrease in educational premia over time, whereas changes in employment structure play a negligible role. This evidence suggests that changes in wage inequality in Italy can hardly be interpreted in terms of a skill-biased change, and the evidence is further reinforced by a set of descriptive statistics showing that the increasing educational attainments of the workforce might have been crowded out by a stable trend in the demand for skills. [source] Endogenous Random Asset Prices in Overlapping Generations EconomiesMATHEMATICAL FINANCE, Issue 1 2000Volker Böhm This paper derives a general explicit sequential asset price process for an economy with overlapping generations of consumers. They maximize expected utility with respect to subjective transition probabilities given by Markov kernels. The process is determined primarily by the interaction of exogenous random dividends and the characteristics of consumers, given by arbitrary preferences and expectations, yielding an explicit random dynamical system with expectations feedback. The paper studies asset prices and equity premia for a parametrized class of examples with CARA utilities and exponential distributions. It provides a complete analysis of the role of risk aversion and of subjective as well as rational beliefs. [source] Modelling Regime-Specific Stock Price Volatility,OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 6 2009Carol Alexander Abstract Single-state generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models identify only one mechanism governing the response of volatility to market shocks, and the conditional higher moments are constant, unless modelled explicitly. So they neither capture state-dependent behaviour of volatility nor explain why the equity index skew persists into long-dated options. Markov switching (MS) GARCH models specify several volatility states with endogenous conditional skewness and kurtosis; of these the simplest to estimate is normal mixture (NM) GARCH, which has constant state probabilities. We introduce a state-dependent leverage effect to NM-GARCH and thereby explain the observed characteristics of equity index returns and implied volatility skews, without resorting to time-varying volatility risk premia. An empirical study on European equity indices identifies two-state asymmetric NM-GARCH as the best fit of the 15 models considered. During stable markets volatility behaviour is broadly similar across all indices, but the crash probability and the behaviour of returns and volatility during a crash depends on the index. The volatility mean-reversion and leverage effects during crash markets are quite different from those in the stable regime. [source] Inter-industry Wage Differences and Individual Heterogeneity,OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 5 2004Alan Carruth Abstract Two well-established findings are apparent in the analyses of individual wage determination: cross-section wage equations can account for less than half of the variance in earnings and there are large and persistent inter-industry wage differentials. We explore these two empirical regularities using longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). We show that around 90% of the variation in earnings can be explained by observed and unobserved individual characteristics. However, small , but statistically significant , industry wage premia do remain, and there is also a role for a rich set of job and workplace controls. [source] Human Capital Spillovers within the Workplace: Evidence for Great Britain,OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 5 2003Harminder Battu Abstract In this paper, we use a unique matched worker,workplace data set to estimate the effect on own earnings of co-workers' education. Our results, using the 1998 GB Workplace Employee Relations Survey, show significant effects. An independent, significantly positive effect from average workplace education is evident; own earnings premia from years of education fall only slightly when controlling for workplace education. This result suggests that the social returns to education are strongly positive , working with colleagues who each had 1.2 years (1 standard deviation) of more education than the average worker, boosts own earnings by 11.1%. An additional year of any single co-worker's education is worth about 3.2% of an additional own year of education. We also test for interactions between own and co-worker education levels and for ,skills incompatibility' when worker education levels are heterogeneous. The interactions appear negative: own education is not much valued at workplaces where co-workers' education levels are already high. There is no evidence that workplace heterogeneity in worker education levels adversely affects own earnings. This result runs counter to theoretical predictions, and suggests that workers compete in tournaments for high-paying jobs. [source] Inspecting The Mechanism: Closed-Form Solutions For Asset Prices In Real Business Cycle Models*THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 489 2003Martin Lettau We derive closed-form solutions for asset prices in an RBC economy. The equations are based on a log-linear solution of the RBC model and allow a clearer understanding of the determination of risk premia in models with production. We demonstrate not only why the premium of equity over the risk-free rate is small but also why the premium of equity over a real long-term bond is small and often negative. In particular, risk premia for equity and long real bonds are negative when technology shocks are permanent. [source] A Term Structure Decomposition of the Australian Yield Curve,THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 271 2009RICHARD FINLAY We use data on coupon-bearing Australian Government bonds and Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates to estimate risk-free zero-coupon yield and forward curves for Australia from 1992 to 2007. These curves and analysts' forecasts of future interest rates are then used to fit an affine term structure model to Australian interest rates, with the aim of decomposing forward rates into expected future overnight cash rates plus term premia. The expected future short rates derived from the model are on average unbiased, fluctuating around the average of actual observed short rates. Since the adoption of inflation targeting and the entrenchment of low and stable inflation expectations, term premia appear to have declined in levels and displayed smaller fluctuations in response to economic shocks. This suggests that the market has become less uncertain about the path of future interest rates. Towards the end of the sample period, term premia have been negative, suggesting that investors may have been willing to pay a premium for Commonwealth Government securities. [source] Sovereign Risk in the Classical Gold Standard Era,THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 271 2009PRASANNA GAI This paper reassesses the determinants of sovereign bond yields during the classical gold standard period (1872,1913) using the pooled mean group methodology. We find that, rather than lowering risk premia directly, membership of the gold standard hastened the convergence of sovereign bond spreads to their long-run equilibrium levels. Our results also suggest that investors looked beyond the gold standard to country-specific fundamental factors when pricing and differentiating sovereign risk. [source] Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset ReturnsTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 6 2009CHRISTOPHER J. MALLOY ABSTRACT We provide new evidence on the success of long-run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by,stockholders. Exploiting microlevel household consumption data, we show that long-run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross-sectional variation in average asset returns than aggregate or nonstockholder consumption risk, and implies more plausible risk aversion estimates. We find that risk aversion around 10 can match observed risk premia for the wealthiest stockholders across sets of test assets that include the 25 Fama and French portfolios, the market portfolio, bond portfolios, and the entire cross-section of stocks. [source] The Risk-Adjusted Cost of Financial DistressTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 6 2007HEITOR ALMEIDA ABSTRACT Financial distress is more likely to happen in bad times. The present value of distress costs therefore depends on risk premia. We estimate this value using risk-adjusted default probabilities derived from corporate bond spreads. For a BBB-rated firm, our benchmark calculations show that the NPV of distress is 4.5% of predistress value. In contrast, a valuation that ignores risk premia generates an NPV of 1.4%. We show that marginal distress costs can be as large as the marginal tax benefits of debt derived by Graham (2000). Thus, distress risk premia can help explain why firms appear to use debt conservatively. [source] Model Specification and Risk Premia: Evidence from Futures OptionsTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 3 2007MARK BROADIE ABSTRACT This paper examines model specification issues and estimates diffusive and jump risk premia using S&P futures option prices from 1987 to 2003. We first develop a time series test to detect the presence of jumps in volatility, and find strong evidence in support of their presence. Next, using the cross section of option prices, we find strong evidence for jumps in prices and modest evidence for jumps in volatility based on model fit. The evidence points toward economically and statistically significant jump risk premia, which are important for understanding option returns. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||