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Predictive Validity (predictive + validity)
Selected AbstractsSituational Tests in Student Selection: An Examination of Predictive Validity, Adverse Impact, and Construct ValidityINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SELECTION AND ASSESSMENT, Issue 4 2002Filip Lievens The Flemish Admission Exam ,Medical and Dental Studies' is comprised of four cognitive ability tests and four situational tests, namely two work samples (i.e., a lecture and a medical text) and two video-based situational judgement tests (i.e., a physician,patient interaction and a medical expert discussion). On the basis of the Admission Exam scores of 941 candidates (359 men, 582 women) this study shows that situational tests significantly can predict better than cognitive ability tests, with lecture and text emerging as significant predictors. When situational tests are combined with cognitive ability tests, there are no mean gender differences. Situational tests also enable us to measure a broader range of constructs. For example, in this study, the personality factor Openness is related to better situational test performance. Overall, this study demonstrates that situational tests may be a useful complement to traditional student selection procedures. [source] Cognitive Impairment Improves the Predictive Validity of the Phenotype of Frailty for Adverse Health Outcomes: The Three-City StudyJOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 3 2009José Alberto Ávila-Funes MD OBJECTIVES: To determine whether adding cognitive impairment to frailty improves its predictive validity for adverse health outcomes. DESIGN: Four-year longitudinal study. SETTING: The French Three-City Study. PARTICIPANTS: Six thousand thirty community-dwelling persons aged 65 to 95. MEASUREMENTS: Frailty was defined as having at least three of the following criteria: weight loss, weakness, exhaustion, slowness, and low physical activity. Subjects meeting one or two criteria were prefrail and those meeting none as nonfrail. The lowest quartile in the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Isaacs Set Test (IST) was used to identify subjects with cognitive impairment. The predictive validity of frailty for incident disability, hospitalization, dementia, and death was calculated first for frailty subgroups and then rerun after stratification according to the presence or absence of cognitive impairment. RESULTS: Four hundred twenty-one individuals (7%) met frailty criteria. Cognitive impairment was present in 10%, 12%, and 22% of the nonfrail, prefrail, and frail subjects, respectively. Those classified as frail scored lower on the MMSE and IST than those classified as prefrail and nonfrail. After adjustment, frail persons with cognitive impairment were significantly more likely to develop disability in activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental ADLs over the following 4 years. The risk of incident mobility disability and hospitalization was marginally greater. Incident dementia was greater in the groups with cognitive impairment irrespective of their frailty status. Conversely, frailty was not a significant predictor of mortality. CONCLUSION: Cognitive impairment improves the predictive validity of the operational definition of frailty, because it increases the risk of adverse health outcomes in this particular subgroup of the elderly population. [source] Predictive Validity of Measures of Comorbidity in Older Community Dwellers: The Insufficienza Cardiaca negli Anziani Residenti a Dicomano StudyJOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 2 2006Mauro Di Bari MD OBJECTIVES: To compare the ability of five measures of comorbidity to predict mortality and incident disability in basic activities of daily living (BADLs) in unselected older persons. DESIGN: An assessment of the data obtained from the Insufficienza Cardiaca negli Anziani Residenti a Dicomano (ICARe Dicomano) Study, a longitudinal epidemiological survey on heart failure in older people. SETTING: Dicomano, a small, rural town near Florence, Italy. PARTICIPANTS: The entire population aged 65 and older living in Dicomano, Italy, was enrolled in the ICARe Dicomano Study. MEASUREMENTS: At baseline (1995), comorbidity was quantified in 688 participants, based on clinical diagnoses, using disease count (DC), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Index of Co-Existent Diseases (ICED), and Geriatric Index of Comorbidity (GIC), or on drug use, using Chronic Disease Score (CDS). Incident ADL disability was assessed in 1999 and vital status in 2004. RESULTS: Mortality increased with the severity of comorbidity, with hazard ratios around 2 when comparing the highest and the lowest quartiles of DC, CCI, and ICED in Cox regressions adjusted for age, sex, and physical and cognitive performance. Prediction of mortality with GIC and CDS was only borderline significant. All measures predicted incident ADL disability; the strongest risk gradient (hazard ratio=8.2 between the highest and lowest quartiles) was observed with ICED. Physical and, to a minor extent, cognitive performance added significantly to predicting mortality and incident BADL disability. CONCLUSION: All the measures of comorbidity predicted death and BADL disability in older community dwellers. DC, CCI, and ICED performed better than GIC and CDS. Physical performance measures are strong, independent contributors to the prediction of these outcomes. [source] The Identification of Seniors At Risk Screening Tool: Further Evidence of Concurrent and Predictive ValidityJOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 2 2004Nandini Dendukuri PhD Objectives: To evaluate the validity of the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) screening tool for detecting severe functional impairment and depression and predicting increased depressive symptoms and increased utilization of health services. Setting: Four university-affiliated hospitals in Montreal. Design: Data from two previous studies were available: Study 1, in which the ISAR scale was developed (n=1,122), and Study 2, in which it was used to identify patients for a randomized trial of a nursing intervention (n=1,889 with administrative data, of which 520 also had clinical data). Participants: Patients aged 65 and older who were to be released from an emergency department (ED). Measurements: Baseline validation criteria included premorbid functional status in both studies and depression in Study 2 only. Increase in depressive symptoms at 4-month follow-up was assessed in Study 2. Information on health services utilization during the 5 months after the ED visit (repeat ED visits and hospitalization in both studies, visits to community health centers in Study 2) was available by linkage with administrative databases. Results: Estimates of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for concurrent validity of the ISAR scale for severe functional impairment and depression ranged from 0.65 to 0.86. Estimates of the AUC for predictive validity for increased depressive symptoms and high utilization of health services ranged from 0.61 to 0.71. Conclusion: The ISAR scale has acceptable to excellent concurrent and predictive validity for a variety of outcomes, including clinical measures and utilization of health services. [source] Predictive Validity of the ASAM Patient Placement Criteria for Naturalistically Matched vs.THE AMERICAN JOURNAL ON ADDICTIONS, Issue 5 2003Mismatched Alcoholism Patients This study examined the predictive validity of the ASAM Patient Placement Criteria for matching alcoholism patients to recommended levels of care. A cohort of 248 patients newly admitted to inpatient rehabilitation, intensive outpatient, or regular outpatient care was evaluated using both a computerized algorithm and a clinical evaluation protocol to determine whether they were naturalistically matched or mismatched to care. Outcomes were assessed three months after intake. One common type of undertreatment (ie, receiving regular outpatient care when intensive outpatient care was recommended) predicted poorer drinking out comes. As compared with matched treatment, independent of actual level of care received. Overtreatment did not improve outcomes. There also was a trend for better outcomes with residential vs. intensive outpatient treatment, independent of matching. Results were robust for both methods of assessment. Corroboration by more research is needed, but the ASAM Criteria show promise for reducing both detrimental undertreatment and cost-inefficient overtreatment. [source] Predictive Validity of a Computerized Emergency Triage ToolACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE, Issue 1 2007Sandy L. Dong MD Abstract Background Emergency department (ED) triage prioritizes patients on the basis of the urgency of need for care. eTRIAGE is a Web-based triage decision support tool that is based on the Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS), a five level triage system (CTAS 1 = resuscitation, CTAS 5 = nonurgent). Objectives To examine the validity of eTRIAGE on the basis of resource utilization and cost as measures of acuity. Methods Scores on the CTAS, specialist consultations, computed-tomography use, ED length of stay, ED disposition, and estimated ED and hospital costs (if the patient was subsequently admitted to hospital) were collected for each patient over a six month period. These data were queried from a database that captures all regional ED visits. Correlations between CTAS score and each outcome were measured by using logistic regression models (categorical variables), univariate analysis of variance (continuous variables), and the Kruskal-Wallis analysis of variance (costs). A multivariate regression model that used cost as the outcome was used to identify interaction between the variables presented. Results Over the six month study, 29,524 patients were triaged by using eTRIAGE. When compared with CTAS level 3, the odds ratios for consultation, CT scan, and admission were significantly higher in CTAS 1 and 2 and were significantly lower in CTAS 4 and 5 (p < 0.001). When compared with CTAS levels 2,5 combined, the odds ratio for death in CTAS 1 was 664.18 (p < 0.001). The length of stay also demonstrated significant correlation with CTAS score (p < 0.001). Costs to the ED and hospital also correlated significantly with increasing acuity (median costs for CTAS levels in Canadian dollars: CTAS 1 =$2,690, CTAS 2 =$433, CTAS 3 =$288, CTAS 4 =$164, CTAS 5 =$139, and p < 0.001). Significant interactions between the data collected were found in a multivariate regression model, although CTAS score remained highly associated with costs. Conclusions Acuity measured by eTRIAGE demonstrates excellent predictive validity for resource utilization and ED and hospital costs. Future research should focus on specific presenting complaints and targeted resources to more accurately assess eTRIAGE validity. [source] Predictive, concurrent, prospective and retrospective validity of self-reported delinquencyCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 3 2003Darrick Jolliffe Background The self-report method is widely used to measure offending. Previous studies suggest that it is generally valid, but that its validity may be lower for blacks than for whites. Aim To assess the validity of self-reported offending in relation to court referrals, and to investigate how it varies with types of offences, sex and race. Method Annual court and self-report data were collected between ages 11 and 17 for eight offences in the Seattle Social Development Project, which is a prospective longitudinal survey of 808 youths. Results Self-reports predicted future court referrals. Predictive validity was highest for drug offences, for males and for whites, and lowest for females and Asians. The probability of youths with a court referral reporting offences and arrests was highest for drug offences, for males, for whites and for blacks. Retrospective ages of onset agreed best with prospective ages for drug offences, Asians and whites. More Asians than blacks or whites failed retrospectively to report offences that had been reported prospectively. Conclusions The validity of self-reports of offending was high, especially for drug offences, for males and for whites. Contrary to prior research, validity was high for black males. It was lowest for Asian females. Sex and race differences in validity held up after controlling for socioeconomic status. Differential validity probability did not reflect police bias. Copyright © 2003 Whurr Publishers Ltd. [source] Validation of the World Health Organization Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST): report of results from the Australian siteDRUG AND ALCOHOL REVIEW, Issue 3 2005DAVID A. L. NEWCOMBE Abstract The concurrent, construct, discriminative and predictive validity of the World Health Organization's Alcohol Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) were examined in an Australian sample. One hundred and fifty participants, recruited from drug treatment (n = 50) and primary health care (PHC) settings (n = 100), were administered a battery of instruments at baseline and a modified battery at 3 months. Measures included the ASSIST; the Addiction Severity Index-Lite (ASI-Lite); the Severity of Dependence Scale (SDS); the MINI International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI-Plus); the Rating of Injection Site Condition (RISC); the Drug Abuse Screening Test (DAST); the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT); the Revised Fagerstrom Tolerance Questionnaire (RTQ); and the Maudsely Addiction Profile (MAP). Concurrent validity was demonstrated by significant correlations between ASSIST scores and scores from the ASI-lite, SDS, AUDIT and DAST; and significantly greater ASSIST scores for those with diagnoses of abuse or dependence. Construct validity was established by significant correlations between ASSIST scores and measures of risk factors for the development of drug and alcohol problems. Participants diagnosed with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder or antisocial personality disorder had significantly higher ASSIST scores than those not diagnosed as such. Discriminative validity was established by the capacity of the ASSIST to discriminate between substance use, abuse and dependence. ROC analysis was able to establish cut-off scores for an Australian sample, with suitable specificities and sensitivities for most substances. Predictive validity was demonstrated by similarity in ASSIST scores obtained at baseline and at follow-up. The findings demonstrated that the ASSIST is a valid screening test for psychoactive substance use in individuals who use a number of substances and have varying degrees of substance use. [source] Predictive validity of the CARE measure at the Glasgow Homoeopathic HospitalFOCUS ON ALTERNATIVE AND COMPLEMENTARY THERAPIES AN EVIDENCE-BASED APPROACH, Issue 4 2003AP Bikker [source] The modified CAMDEX informant interview is a valid and reliable tool for use in the diagnosis of dementia in adults with Down's syndromeJOURNAL OF INTELLECTUAL DISABILITY RESEARCH, Issue 6 2004S. L. Ball Abstract Background Dementia because of Alzheimer's disease (AD) commonly affects older adults with Down's syndrome (DS). Methods are needed, with established concurrent and predictive validity, to facilitate the diagnostic assessment of dementia, when it is complicated by pre-existing intellectual disabilities (ID). We report on the reliability and validity of a modified version of the Cambridge Examination for Mental Disorders of the Elderly (CAMDEX) informant interview, for use when assessing people with DS suspected as having dementia. Methods As part of a previous epidemiological study of older people with DS, the CAMDEX informant interview was used to determine the prevalence of dementia. The 74 people with DS included at that time (Time 1) had also completed the Cambridge Cognitive Examination (CAMCOG), the neuropsychological assessment from the CAMDEX schedule. Fifty-six were assessed again 6 years later (Time 2). Based on the CAMDEX informant interview, nine of the 74 at Time 1, and 11 of the 56 at Time 2, were found to meet clinical criteria for AD. Forty-one scored above floor on the CAMCOG at Time 1 and were included in the analysis of cognitive decline. Concurrent validity was established by comparing diagnosis at Time 2 with independent evidence of objective decline on cognitive tasks since Time 1. Predictive validity was established by examining how accurately diagnosis at Time 1 predicted both cognitive decline and future diagnosis. Inter-rater reliability was determined by comparing the level of agreement between two raters. Results CAMDEX-based diagnosis of AD was shown to be consistent with objectively observed cognitive decline (good concurrent validity) and to be a good predictor of future diagnosis. Although numbers are small, some support is also provided for the accuracy with which diagnosis predicts cognitive decline. Inter-rater reliability was good with Kappa > 0.8 for 91% of items and >,0.6 for all items. Conclusions The use of the modified CAMDEX informant interview enables the structured collection of diagnostic information, so that a valid and a reliable diagnosis of dementia can be made in those with pre-existing ID, using established diagnostic criteria. [source] Validating the organizational climate measure: links to managerial practices, productivity and innovationJOURNAL OF ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR, Issue 4 2005Malcolm G. Patterson This paper describes the development and validation of a multidimensional measure of organizational climate, the Organizational Climate Measure (OCM), based upon Quinn and Rohrbaugh's Competing Values model. A sample of 6869 employees across 55 manufacturing organizations completed the questionnaire. The 17 scales contained within the measure had acceptable levels of reliability and were factorially distinct. Concurrent validity was measured by correlating employees' ratings with managers' and interviewers' descriptions of managerial practices and organizational characteristics. Predictive validity was established using measures of productivity and innovation. The OCM also discriminated effectively between organizations, demonstrating good discriminant validity. The measure offers researchers a relatively comprehensive and flexible approach to the assessment of organizational members' experience and promises applied and theoretical benefits. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Predictive validity of the multiple mini-interview for selecting medical traineesMEDICAL EDUCATION, Issue 8 2009Kevin W Eva Introduction, In this paper we report on further tests of the validity of the multiple mini-interview (MMI) selection process, comparing MMI scores with those achieved on a national high-stakes clinical skills examination. We also continue to explore the stability of candidate performance and the extent to which so-called ,cognitive' and ,non-cognitive' qualities should be deemed independent of one another. Methods, To examine predictive validity, MMI data were matched with licensing examination data for both undergraduate (n = 34) and postgraduate (n = 22) samples of participants. To assess the stability of candidate performance, reliability coefficients were generated for eight distinct samples. Finally, correlations were calculated between ,cognitive' and ,non-cognitive' measures of ability collected in the admissions procedure, on graduation from medical school and 18 months into postgraduate training. Results, The median reliability of eight administrations of the MMI in various cohorts was 0.73 when 12 10-minute stations were used with one examiner per station. The correlation between performance on the MMI and number of stations passed on an objective structured clinical examination-based licensing examination was r = 0.43 (P < 0.05) in a postgraduate sample and r = 0.35 (P < 0.05) in an undergraduate sample of subjects who sat the MMI 5 years prior to sitting the licensing examination. The correlation between ,cognitive' and ,non-cognitive' assessment instruments increased with time in training (i.e. as the focus of the assessments became more tailored to the clinical practice of medicine). Discussion, Further evidence for the validity of the MMI approach to making admissions decisions has been provided. More generally, the reported findings cast further doubt on the extent to which performance can be captured with trait-based models of ability. Finally, although a complementary predictive relationship has consistently been observed between grade point average and MMI results, the extent to which cognitive and non-cognitive qualities are distinct appears to depend on the scope of practice within which the two classes of qualities are assessed. [source] Predictive validity of Bayley scale in language development of children at 6,36 monthsPEDIATRICS INTERNATIONAL, Issue 5 2009For-Wey Lung Abstract Background:, The aim of the present study was to investigate the prediction of development among 6-, 18-, and 36-month-old infants on the Bayley Scale of Infant Development (BSID). Methods:, One hundred infants were assessed using the BSID at 6 months; of these, 70 completed the 18 and 36 month assessment at follow up. Results:, Multivariate regression and structural equation modeling were used to determine predictive validity in the mental and psychomotor developmental scales. Structural equation analysis also confirmed the conceptual scheme of the stability of development from 6 to 36 months for boys. Boys had a steadier overall developmental trajectory compared to girls. Conclusions:, The validity of BSID was consistent with previous studies. The language spurt in girls, however, from 6 to 18 months affected the stability of the BSID. Thus, the gender difference in language development should be considered in clinical assessment. [source] Quantifying calcium intake in school age children: Development and validation of the Calcium Counts!© food frequency questionnaire,AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMAN BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2010Babette S. Zemel Quantifying dietary behavior is difficult and can be intrusive. Calcium, an essential mineral for skeletal development during childhood, is difficult to assess. Few studies have examined the use of food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) for assessing calcium intake in school-age children. This study evaluated the validity and reliability of the Calcium Counts!© FFQ (CCFFQ) for estimating calcium intake in school children in the US. Healthy children, aged 7,10 years (n = 139) completed the CCFFQ and 7-day weighed food records. A subset of subjects completed a second CCFFQ within 3.6 months. Concurrent validity was determined using Pearson correlations between the CCFFQ and food record estimates of calcium intake, and the relationship between quintiles for the two measures. Predictive validity was determined using generalized linear regression models to explore the effects of age, race, and gender. Inter- and intra-individual variability in calcium intake was high (>300 mg/day). Calcium intake was ,300 mg/day higher by CCFFQ compared to food records. Concurrent validity was moderate (r = 0.61) for the entire cohort and higher for selected subgroups. Predictive validity estimates yielded significant relationships between CCFFQ and food record estimates of calcium intake alone and in the presence of such potential effect modifiers as age group, race, and gender. Test,retest reliability was high (r = 0.74). Although calcium intake estimated by the CCFFQ was greater than that measured by food records, the CCFFQ provides valid and reliable estimates of calcium intake in children. The CCFFQ is especially well-suited as a tool to identify children with low calcium intakes. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 2010. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Predictive validity of the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version for general and violent recidivismBEHAVIORAL SCIENCES & THE LAW, Issue 1 2004Raymond R. Corrado Ph.D. Several authors have expressed concern regarding the use of youth psychopathy assessments in determinations of risk for general and violent offending. The Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV) was completed with 182 male adolescent offenders in this prospective study (average 14.5 month follow-up) of general and violent recidivism. Both a two-factor and three-factor model of the PCL:YV significantly predicted general and violent recidivism at a predictive accuracy ranging from 68 to 63%. However, regression analyses indicated these associations were explained primarily by behavioral psychopathic symptoms, rather than interpersonal or affective traits. Implications for the use of psychopathy assessments for risk during adolescence are discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Evaluating the validities of different DSM-IV-based conceptual constructs of tobacco dependence,ADDICTION, Issue 7 2008Peter S. Hendricks ABSTRACT Aim To compare the concurrent and predictive validities of two subsets of DSM-IV criteria for nicotine dependence (tolerance and withdrawal; withdrawal; difficulty controlling use; and use despite harm) to the concurrent and predictive validity of the full DSM-IV criteria. Design Analysis of baseline and outcome data from three randomized clinical trials of cigarette smoking treatment. Setting San Francisco, California. Participants Two samples of cigarette smokers (n = 810 and 322), differing with regard to baseline characteristics and treatment received, derived from three randomized clinical trials. Measurements DSM-IV nicotine dependence criteria were measured at baseline with a computerized version of the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for DSM-IV (DIS-IV). Additional baseline measures included the Fagerström Test of Nicotine Dependence (FTND), number of cigarettes smoked per day, breath carbon monoxide (CO) level, the Minnesota Nicotine Withdrawal Scale (MNWS), the Michigan Nicotine Reinforcement Questionnaire (M-NRQ) and the Profile of Mood States (POMS). Seven-day point-prevalence abstinence was assessed at week 12. Findings Full DSM-IV criteria displayed greater concurrent validity than either of the two subsets of criteria. However, DSM-IV symptoms accounted for only a nominal amount of the variance in baseline smoking-related characteristics and were unrelated to smoking abstinence at week 12. Cigarettes smoked per day was the only significant predictor of abstinence at week 12. Conclusions Although the findings do not provide a compelling alternative to the full set of DSM-IV nicotine dependence criteria, its poor psychometric properties and low predictive power limit its clinical and research utility. [source] Ability and Trait Complex Predictors of Academic and Job Performance: A Person,Situation ApproachAPPLIED PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 1 2010Ruth Kanfer A battery of cognitive ability, knowledge, and non-ability measures were administered to 105 college students enrolled in a cooperative school-work program and used to predict academic and job performance. Composite scores for each domain were derived from factor analyses of 11 measures of verbal, numerical, and spatial abilities, four measures of domain knowledge, and 27 measures of personality and motivational traits, vocational interests, and self-assessments. Both ability and non-ability trait composites were significant predictors of academic performance, but only the non-ability trait composites predicted job performance. Implications for the integrative assessment of individual differences and their predictive validities for performance in different active work contexts, as well as the importance of trait composites across contexts, are discussed. Un ensemble de mesures relatives aux connaissances, aux aptitudes et autres dimensions furent obtenues auprès de 105 étudiants de 1° cycle impliqués dans un programme de travail scolaire coopératif, avec pour objectif de prédire les résultats universitaires et la performance au travail. Des scores composites pour chacun de ces deux domaines ont été constitués à partir d'analyses factorielles des onze mesures des aptitudes verbale, numérique et spatiale, des quatre mesures portant sur les connaissances et des 27 mesures relevant de traits de personnalité, de la motivation, des intérêts professionnels et de l'auto-évaluation. Les scores des aptitudes et des traits de personnalité furent des prédicteurs significatifs du succès universitaire, mais seuls ces derniers ont prédit la performance au travail. On réfléchit aux conséquences sur l'évaluation synthétique des différences individuelles et leur validité prédictive de la performance dans différents contextes de travail productif, ainsi que sur l'importance des scores composites selon les situations. [source] The validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) in predicting criminal recidivismCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 2 2007Carolin Kröner Introduction,The VRAG is an actuarial risk assessment instrument, developed in Canada as an aid to estimating the probability of reoffending by mentally ill offenders. Aim,To test the predictive validity of the VRAG with a German sample. Method,The predictive validity of the VRAG was tested on a sample of 136 people charged with a criminal offence and under evaluation for criminal responsibility in the forensic psychiatry department at the University of Munich in 1994,95. The predicted outcome was tested by means of ROC analysis for correlation with the observed rate of recidivism between discharge after the 1994,95 assessment and the census date of 31 March 2003. Recidivism rate was calculated from the official records of the National Conviction Registry. Results,Just over 38% of the sample had reoffended by 2003. Their mean time-at-risk was 58 months (SD 3.391; range 0,115 months). The VRAG yielded a high predictive accuracy in the ROC analysis with an AUC of 0.703. For a constant time-at-risk < = 7 years, the predicted probability and observed rates of recidivism correlated significantly with Pearson's r = 0.941. Conclusions,The validity of the VRAG was replicated with a German sample. The VRAG yielded good predictive accuracy, despite differences in sample and outcome variables compared with its original sample. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Mediator effects in the social development model: an examination of constituent theoriesCRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR AND MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 4 2005Eric C. Brown Background The social development model (SDM) provides an explanatory framework for the progression of antisocial behaviour in children and adolescents. Although previous research has assessed the predictive validity of the model, alternative associations based on the SDM's constituent theories have not been examined. Method Using structural equation modelling, a series of direct paths was examined for mediation by SDM constructs. Data for the study consisted of teacher-, parent- and self-report of 1016 fourth- and fifth-grade students from the Raising Healthy Children project, a longitudinal etiological study with an embedded preventive intervention. Results Four of the seven paths examined were partially or totally mediated by SDM constructs. Specifically, the relationship between prosocial bonding and adolescent antisocial behaviour, as hypothesized by social control theory, was fully mediated by prosocial beliefs. As hypothesized by social learning theory, students' socioemotional and cognitive skills significantly predicted antisocial behaviour, independent of partial mediation through rewards, bonding and beliefs. As hypothesized by differential association theory, involvement with both prosocial and antisocial persons was directly associated with respective prosocial and antisocial beliefs, independent of partial mediation through rewards and bonding. Conclusions These findings suggest additional associations that are not currently specified in the SDM and underscore the importance of re-examining hypotheses from constituent theories when integrating developmental models of antisocial behaviour. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] High cortisol awakening response is associated with an impairment of the effect of bright light therapyACTA PSYCHIATRICA SCANDINAVICA, Issue 3 2009K. Martiny Objective:, We investigated the predictive validity of the cortisol awakening response (CAR) in patients with non-seasonal major depression. Method:, Patients were treated with sertraline in combination with bright or dim light therapy for a 5-week period. Saliva cortisol levels were measured in 63 patients, as an awakening profile, before medication and light therapy started. The CAR was calculated by using three time-points: awakening and 20 and 60 min after awakening. Results:, Patients with low CAR had a very substantial effect of bright light therapy compared with dim light therapy, whereas patients with a high CAR had no effect of bright light therapy compared with dim light therapy. Conclusion:, High CAR was associated with an impairment of the effect of bright light therapy. This result raises the question of whether bright light acts through a mechanism different from that of antidepressants. [source] Designing mouse behavioral tasks relevant to autistic-like behaviors,DEVELOPMENTAL DISABILITIES RESEARCH REVIEW, Issue 4 2004Jacqueline N. Crawley Abstract The importance of genetic factors in autism has prompted the development of mutant mouse models to advance our understanding of biological mechanisms underlying autistic behaviors. Mouse models of human neuropsychiatric diseases are designed to optimize (1) face validity, i.e., resemblance to the human symptoms; (2) construct validity, i.e., similarity to the underlying causes of the disease; and (3) predictive validity, i.e., expected responses to treatments that are effective in the human disease. There is a growing need for mouse behavioral tasks with all three types of validity for modeling the symptoms of autism. We are in the process of designing a set of tasks with face validity for the defining features of autism: deficits in appropriate reciprocal social interactions, deficits in verbal social communication, and high levels of ritualistic repetitive behaviors. Social approach is tested in an automated three-chambered apparatus that offers the subject a choice between a familiar environment, a novel environment, and a novel environment containing a stranger mouse. Preference for social novelty is tested in the same apparatus, with a choice between the start chamber, the chamber containing a familiar mouse, and the chamber containing a stranger mouse. Social communication is evaluated by measuring the ultrasonic distress vocalizations emitted by infant mouse pups and the parental response of retrieving the pup to the nest. Resistance to change in ritualistic repetitive behaviors is modeled by forcing a change in habit, including reversal of the spatial location of a reinforcer in a T-maze task and in the Morris water maze. Mouse behavioral tasks that may model additional features of autism are discussed, including tasks relevant to anxiety, seizures, sleep disturbances, and sensory hypersensitivity. Applications of these tests include (1) behavioral phenotyping of transgenic and knockout mice with mutations in genes relevant to autism, (2) characterization of mutant mice derived from random chemical mutagenesis, (3) DNA microarray analyses of genes in inbred strains of mice that differ in social interaction, social communication and resistance to change in habit, and (4) evaluation of proposed therapeutics for the treatment of autism. Published 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc. MRDD Research Reviews 2004;10:248,258. [source] Validation of the World Health Organization Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST): report of results from the Australian siteDRUG AND ALCOHOL REVIEW, Issue 3 2005DAVID A. L. NEWCOMBE Abstract The concurrent, construct, discriminative and predictive validity of the World Health Organization's Alcohol Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) were examined in an Australian sample. One hundred and fifty participants, recruited from drug treatment (n = 50) and primary health care (PHC) settings (n = 100), were administered a battery of instruments at baseline and a modified battery at 3 months. Measures included the ASSIST; the Addiction Severity Index-Lite (ASI-Lite); the Severity of Dependence Scale (SDS); the MINI International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI-Plus); the Rating of Injection Site Condition (RISC); the Drug Abuse Screening Test (DAST); the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT); the Revised Fagerstrom Tolerance Questionnaire (RTQ); and the Maudsely Addiction Profile (MAP). Concurrent validity was demonstrated by significant correlations between ASSIST scores and scores from the ASI-lite, SDS, AUDIT and DAST; and significantly greater ASSIST scores for those with diagnoses of abuse or dependence. Construct validity was established by significant correlations between ASSIST scores and measures of risk factors for the development of drug and alcohol problems. Participants diagnosed with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder or antisocial personality disorder had significantly higher ASSIST scores than those not diagnosed as such. Discriminative validity was established by the capacity of the ASSIST to discriminate between substance use, abuse and dependence. ROC analysis was able to establish cut-off scores for an Australian sample, with suitable specificities and sensitivities for most substances. Predictive validity was demonstrated by similarity in ASSIST scores obtained at baseline and at follow-up. The findings demonstrated that the ASSIST is a valid screening test for psychoactive substance use in individuals who use a number of substances and have varying degrees of substance use. [source] Identifying young people who drink too much: the clinical utility of the five-item Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT)DRUG AND ALCOHOL REVIEW, Issue 1 2001HELEN MILES Researcher Abstract The current study investigated the patterns and consequences of alcohol use among young people and their perceptions of associate health risk, and explored the clinical utility of the five-item version of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) in screening young people for hazardous drinking. A cross-sectional sample of 393 young people aged 16,19 years were accessed through two tertiary colleges in South London and self-completed an anonymous, confidential questionnaire recording the five-item AUDIT, patterns of alcohol consumption, hazardous consequences and perception of associate health risk. Over 90% of the sample reported drinking alcohol regularly, commonly excessive weekend use and related physical, psychological and social consequences. A significant minority (20.4% of males, 18.0% of females) reported consumption of alcohol in excess of UK recommended limits, while almost a third (34.2% of males, 30.2% of females) reported scores in the ,hazardous' range of the five-item AUDIT. However, the majority had little perception of associate health risk, perceiving their use to be ,light' and unproblematic. Only one in 10 of those drinking at ,hazardous' levels recognized their alcohol use as problematic, most believing the hazardous consequences of this use were acceptable. Self-reported patterns of alcohol consumption (except age first used) and total number of psychological and social hazardous consequences were found to significantly predict AUDIT scores using linear regression analysis. Therefore the five-item AUDIT appears to have predictive validity, reflecting self-reported alcohol consumption, perception of associate health risk and hazardous consequences among young people. It is concluded that it may consequently have clinical utility as a simple screening tool (suitable for use by a variety of professionals in contact with young people) for the identification of hazardous alcohol consumption among this population. [source] Early behavioral screening for antidepressants and anxiolyticsDRUG DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, Issue 9 2006Vincent Castagné Abstract Early preclinical behavioral testing is an essential stage during the development of substances with potential antidepressant and/or anxiolytic activity. With the growing cost of drug development, optimal research strategies are needed to detect potential new treatments with high efficacy and minimal side effects and to confirm in vitro pharmacological studies. In the following article, we present simple rodent tests used for early behavioral testing for antidepressant-like and anxiolytic-like activity. Unpublished results from our laboratory are discussed with reference to published data to illustrate the predictive validity of several behavioral screening tests. Drug Dev. Res. 67:729,742, 2006. © 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Risk perception and smoking behavior in medically ill smokers: a prospective studyADDICTION, Issue 6 2010Belinda Borrelli ABSTRACT Aims To examine the influence of risk perception on intentions to quit smoking and post-treatment abstinence. Design Prospective and longitudinal. Setting United States. Participants A total of 237 adult smokers (mean age 56 years) receiving medical care from home health-care nurses. Participants did not have to want to quit smoking to participate, but received cessation counseling within the context of their medical care. Measurements Three measures of risk perception were given pre- and post-treatment: perceived vulnerability, optimistic bias and precaution effectiveness. Smoking status was verified biochemically at end of treatment and at 2, 6 and 12 months later. Findings Principal components analysis supported the theoretical discriminability of the risk perception measures, and intercorrelations provided evidence for concurrent and predictive validity. Elevated risk perception was associated with a variety of socio-demographic and psychosocial characteristics. Optimistic bias was associated significantly with older age and ethnic minority status. Smokers in pre-contemplation had lower perceived vulnerability and precaution effectiveness and greater optimistic bias than those in contemplation and preparation. Smokers in preparation had higher perceived vulnerability and lower optimistic bias than those in earlier stages. Change in perceived vulnerability predicted smoking cessation at follow-up. Optimistic bias predicted a lower likelihood of cessation and precaution effectiveness predicted a greater likelihood of smoking cessation, but only among those with a smoking-related illness. Conclusions In patients receiving medical care from home health-care nurses, change in perceived vulnerability to smoking-related disease is predictive of smoking cessation. In those with smoking-related illnesses, optimistic bias predicts continued smoking while precaution effectiveness predicts cessation. [source] The Cannabis Use Problems Identification Test (CUPIT): development, reliability, concurrent and predictive validity among adolescents and adultsADDICTION, Issue 4 2010Jan Bashford ABSTRACT Aims To describe the empirical construction and initial validation of the Cannabis Use Problems Identification Test (CUPIT), a brief self-report screening instrument for detection of currently and potentially problematic cannabis use. Design In a three-phase prospective design an item pool of candidate questions was generated from a literature review and extensive expert consultation. The CUPIT internal structure, cross-sectional and longitudinal psychometric properties were then systematically tested among heterogeneous past-year users. Participants Volunteer participants were 212 high-risk adolescents (n = 138) and adults (n = 74) aged 13,61 years from multiple community settings. Measurements The comprehensive assessment battery included several established measures of cannabis-related pathology for CUPIT validation, with DSM-IV/ICD-10 diagnoses of cannabis use disorders as criterion standard. Findings Sixteen items loading highly on two subscales derived from principal components analysis exhibited good to excellent test,retest (0.89,0.99) and internal consistency reliability (0.92, 0.83), and highly significant ability to discriminate diagnostic subgroups along the severity continuum (non-problematic, risky, problematic use). Twelve months later, baseline CUPIT scores demonstrated highly significant longitudinal predictive utility for respondents' follow-up diagnostic group membership. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis identified a CUPIT score of 12 to be the optimal cut-point for maximizing sensitivity for both currently diagnosable cannabis use disorder and those at risk of meeting diagnostic criteria in the following 12 months. Conclusions The CUPIT is a brief cannabis screener that is reliable, valid and acceptable for use across diverse community settings and consumers of all ages. The CUPIT has clear potential to assist with achievement of public health goals to reduce cannabis-related harms in the community. [source] Using sensation seeking to target adolescents for substance use interventionsADDICTION, Issue 3 2010James D. Sargent ABSTRACT Aims This study examines the predictive validity of sensation seeking as a predictor of adolescent substance use, in order to optimize targeting for substance use prevention programs. Design Longitudinal study. Setting Random-digit dial telephone survey. Participants A total of 6522 US adolescents aged 10,14 years at baseline, resurveyed at 8-month intervals for three subsequent waves. Measurements Two outcomes were assessed,onset of binge drinking (more than five drinks in a short time) and established smoking (>100 cigarettes life-time). Sensation seeking level was assessed at baseline. Logistic regression was used to predict onset of substance use at any follow-up wave as a function of sensation seeking. The receiver operating characteristics curve was used to illustrate how well sensation seeking predicted substance use as a function of different cut-off points for defining high sensation seeking, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AROC) was the metric of predictive validity. Findings Of 5834 participants with one or more follow-up assessments, 5634 reported no binge drinking and 5802 were not established smokers at baseline, of whom 717 (12.7% of 5634) reported binge drinking and 144 (2.5% of 5802) reported established smoking at one or more follow-up interviews. Sensation seeking predicted binge drinking moderately well [AROC = 0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.69, 0.73)] and was a significantly better predictor of established smoking onset [AROC = 0.80 (0.76, 0.83)]. For binge drinking, predictive validity was significantly lower in blacks; for established smoking it was significantly higher for Hispanics. Implications for two targeting interventions are discussed. Conclusions Sensation seeking works moderately well at identifying adolescents at risk for onset of binge drinking and established smoking. This study offers a guide for determining the appropriate targeting cut-off value, based on intervention efficacy, costs and risks. [source] Evaluating the validities of different DSM-IV-based conceptual constructs of tobacco dependence,ADDICTION, Issue 7 2008Peter S. Hendricks ABSTRACT Aim To compare the concurrent and predictive validities of two subsets of DSM-IV criteria for nicotine dependence (tolerance and withdrawal; withdrawal; difficulty controlling use; and use despite harm) to the concurrent and predictive validity of the full DSM-IV criteria. Design Analysis of baseline and outcome data from three randomized clinical trials of cigarette smoking treatment. Setting San Francisco, California. Participants Two samples of cigarette smokers (n = 810 and 322), differing with regard to baseline characteristics and treatment received, derived from three randomized clinical trials. Measurements DSM-IV nicotine dependence criteria were measured at baseline with a computerized version of the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for DSM-IV (DIS-IV). Additional baseline measures included the Fagerström Test of Nicotine Dependence (FTND), number of cigarettes smoked per day, breath carbon monoxide (CO) level, the Minnesota Nicotine Withdrawal Scale (MNWS), the Michigan Nicotine Reinforcement Questionnaire (M-NRQ) and the Profile of Mood States (POMS). Seven-day point-prevalence abstinence was assessed at week 12. Findings Full DSM-IV criteria displayed greater concurrent validity than either of the two subsets of criteria. However, DSM-IV symptoms accounted for only a nominal amount of the variance in baseline smoking-related characteristics and were unrelated to smoking abstinence at week 12. Cigarettes smoked per day was the only significant predictor of abstinence at week 12. Conclusions Although the findings do not provide a compelling alternative to the full set of DSM-IV nicotine dependence criteria, its poor psychometric properties and low predictive power limit its clinical and research utility. [source] Cannabis withdrawal predicts severity of cannabis involvement at 1-year follow-up among treated adolescentsADDICTION, Issue 5 2008Tammy Chung ABSTRACT Aims Controversy exists regarding the inclusion of cannabis withdrawal as an indicator of dependence in the next revision of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) and International Classification of Diseases (ICD). This study contrasted the concurrent and predictive validity of three operational definitions of cannabis withdrawal in a sample of treated adolescents. Design Prospective study of treated adolescents with 1-year follow-up. Setting and participants Adolescents (n = 214) were recruited from intensive out-patient treatment programs for substance abuse, and followed at 1 year (92% retention). Youth who were included in the analyses reported regular cannabis use. Measurements The number of DSM-IV cannabis abuse and dependence symptoms at baseline and 1-year follow-up, past year frequency of cannabis use at baseline and follow-up, and periods of abstinence at 1-year follow-up. Cannabis withdrawal was defined based on (i) the presence of two or more cannabis withdrawal symptoms; (ii) a definition proposed by Budney and colleagues (2006) that requires four or more withdrawal symptoms (four-symptom definition); and (iii) the use of latent class analysis to identify subgroups with similar cannabis withdrawal symptom profiles. Findings and conclusions All three definitions of cannabis withdrawal demonstrated some concurrent validity. Only the four-symptom and latent class-derived definitions of withdrawal predicted severity of cannabis-related problems at 1-year follow-up. No cannabis withdrawal definition predicted frequency of use at follow-up. Further research is needed to determine the clinical utility and validity of the four-symptom definition, as well as alternative definitions of cannabis withdrawal, to inform revisions leading to DSM-V and ICD-11. [source] Subtypes of substance dependence and abuse: implications for diagnostic classification and empirical researchADDICTION, Issue 2006Thomas F. Babor ABSTRACT Aims To evaluate the relevance of a form of diagnostic classification called clinical subtyping in relation to possible revisions in the diagnostic criteria for substance abuse and dependence in psychiatric classification systems. Methods A general rationale for subtyping is presented. To explore the implications for diagnostic classification, recent research on a variety of subtyping schemes is reviewed in terms of the development of new subtypes and the validation of established theories. Results Subtypes of alcoholism and other psychiatric disorders have been proposed since the beginning of modern psychiatry. Recent subtyping research suggests that no consensus has emerged about the nature, much less the number, of subtypes that could be used to characterize the clinical heterogeneity assumed to be present in groups of people with substance use disorders. Although several relatively simple binary typologies have been developed (e.g. Cloninger's type I and type II; Babor et al.'s type A and type B), validation research has produced mixed results in terms of the construct, concurrent and predictive validity of these classifications. Conclusions The adoption of a subtyping scheme in the major psychiatric classification systems is not recommended until further international research is conducted. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||