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Possible Scenarios (possible + scenario)
Selected AbstractsThe Mathematical Contributions of Francesco Maurolico to the Theory of Music of the 16th Century (The Problems of a Manuscript)CENTAURUS, Issue 3 2006Tito M. Tonietti Here, in part I, his main results are presented and also their differences compared with the classical tradition of the mathematical theory of music. These results are a new proof of the number of commas in the tone, the theory of ,ictus', and a new notation for the composition of proportions. This is followed, in part II, by an explanation of how the original corpus of these folios was put together. Finally, part III discusses the complex puzzle of the manuscripts (one still extant, another probably lost, ,) and of their possible connections with the 1575 edition of a part of the corpus. Possible scenarios of the story of the manuscripts and probable interventions of the Jesuits on this edition are described. [source] Quality Assurance/Accreditation in the Emerging European Higher Education Area: a possible scenario for the futureEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF EDUCATION, Issue 3 2003Guy Haug First page of article [source] Alternate oils in fish feedsEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF LIPID SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, Issue 3 2007Jana Pickova Abstract Nearly half of the fish consumed as food worldwide are raised on fish farms rather than caught in the wild, as shown by FAO statistics. The increasing aquaculture of predatory carnivorous fish demands new sources of feed constituents, particularly oils at the moment. Common terrestrial plant oils contain only traces of the long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids. In connection with fish feed, especially the lack of n -3 "marine fatty acids" is obvious. Recommendations on the required amounts of the fatty acids DHA (22:6n -3) and EPA (20:5n -3) exist from 1994. When plant oil-based diets are fed during the growing phase and replaced by a fish oil-based diet during a period prior to slaughter, most of the beneficial lipid composition of fish in terms of human dietary recommendations is restored. Little attention has been focused on the fish welfare in connection to substitution of dietary oil sources, and studies are still scarce. New fish diets will rely heavily on the use of alternate ingredients such as plant oils also for carnivorous cold-temperate water fish species. In the future, an addition of synthetic or GMO-produced "marine" fatty acids is a possible scenario. The aim of this review is to highlight some plant oils used in fish feeds, with special emphasis on compounds other than fatty acids. We also include some results from an ongoing study, where the effect of dietary soy oil on gonad maturation in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is indicated. [source] A detailed analysis of hotspots and insulation breakdown phenomena in power inductor windings at high frequency regimes: overcurrents and overvoltagesEUROPEAN TRANSACTIONS ON ELECTRICAL POWER, Issue 6 2008J. A. Brandão Faria Abstract This research paper is the last of a group of three papers dedicated to the analysis and computation of the high-frequency electromagnetic behaviour of inductor windings where a multiconductor transmission line approach is used. The present work is essentially concerned with application aspects linked up with the important engineering problem of windings insulation damage, which can occur either because of excessive temperature (winding hotspots) or because of excessive electric field strength (dielectric breakdown). For single and multilayer windings we present here a wealth of information in graphical and tabular form concerning the distribution of voltages, currents, electric charges, charge densities, electric field components and power losses along the inductor winding turns, operating at the critical resonance frequencies characteristic of the structure (which is the worst possible scenario). This information is analysed and processed in order to allow for a detection of the winding zones where breakdown phenomena and hotspots could most probably occur. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] LIMITED DISPERSAL, BUDDING DISPERSAL, AND COOPERATION: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDYEVOLUTION, Issue 4 2009Rolf Kümmerli Numerous theoretical studies have investigated how limited dispersal may provide an explanation for the evolution of cooperation, by leading to interactions between relatives. However, despite considerable theoretical attention, there has been a lack of empirical tests. In this article, we test how patterns of dispersal influence the evolution of cooperation, using iron-scavenging in the bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa as our cooperative trait. We found that relatively limited dispersal does not favor cooperation. The reason for this is that although limited dispersal increases the relatedness between interacting individuals, it also leads to increased local competition for resources between relatives. This result supports Taylor's prediction that in the simplest possible scenario, the effects of increased relatedness and local competition exactly cancel out. In contrast, we show that one way for cooperation to be favored is if individuals disperse in groups (budding dispersal), because this maintains high relatedness while reducing local competition between relatives (relatively global competition). [source] The Future of Regions: Why the Competitiveness Imperative Should not Prevail over Solidarity, Sustainability and DemocracyGEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES B: HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2000Riccardo Petrella The thesis here submitted for debate and criticism is as follows: if today's governing principles that inspire policy choices and priority setting in our societies (which claim to be "knowledge- based societies") are to remain in place in the course of the coming five to ten years, the relative position of the less developed regions (and cities) vis-à-vis the most developed ones will again deteriorate, even though per capita real purchasing power might also slightly increase in the less developed regions. The if-hypothesis, however, is not the only possible pattern of future developments. Because present economic and political leaders are, in general, the promoters and supporters of today's predominant principles, the only way to make possible alternative future developments based on solidarity, sustainability and democracy is that citizens themselves take the initiative, locally and globally, to modify present practices and define new goals and new priorities. In consideration of the results obtained in recent years by civil social movements and protests, one may reasonably consider it as a possible scenario. [source] Human modification of the landscape and surface climate in the next fifty yearsGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2002R. S. Defries Abstract Human modification of the landscape potentially affects exchanges of energy and water between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. This study develops a possible scenario for land cover in the year 2050 based on results from the IMAGE 2 (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect) model, which projects land-cover changes in response to demographic and economic activity. We use the land-cover scenario as a surface boundary condition in a biophysically-based land-surface model coupled to a general circulation model for a 15-years simulation with prescribed sea surface temperature and compare with a control run using current land cover. To assess the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenic land-cover change relative to the sensitivity to decadal-scale interannual variations in vegetation density, we also carry out two additional simulations using observed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from relatively low (1982,83) and high (1989,90) years to describe the seasonal phenology of the vegetation. In the past several centuries, large-scale land-cover change occurred primarily in temperate latitudes through conversion of forests and grassland to highly productive cropland and pasture. Several studies in the literature indicate that past changes in surface climate resulting from this conversion had a cooling effect owing to changes in vegetation morphology (increased albedo). In contrast, this study indicates that future land-cover change, likely to occur predominantly in the tropics and subtropics, has a warming effect governed by physiological rather than morphological mechanisms. The physiological mechanism is to reduce carbon assimilation and consequently latent relative to sensible heat flux resulting in surface temperature increases up to 2 °C and drier hydrologic conditions in locations where land cover was altered in the experiment. In addition, in contrast to an observed decrease in diurnal temperature range (DTR) over land expected with greenhouse warming, results here suggest that future land-cover conversion in tropics could increase the DTR resulting from decreased evaporative cooling during the daytime. For grid cells with altered land cover, the sensitivity of surface temperature to future anthropogenic land-cover change is generally within the range induced by decadal-scale interannual variability in vegetation density in temperate latitudes but up to 1.5 °C warmer in the tropics. [source] Indecision Theory: Weight of Evidence and Voting BehaviorJOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMIC THEORY, Issue 3 2006PAOLO GHIRARDATO In this paper, we show how to incorporate weight of evidence, or ambiguity, into a model of voting behavior. We do so in the context of the turnout decision of instrumentally rational voters who differ in their perception of the ambiguity of the candidates' policy positions. Ambiguity is reflected by the fact that the voter's beliefs are given by a set of probabilities, each of which represents in the voter's mind a different possible scenario. We show that a voter who is averse to ambiguity considers abstention strictly optimal when the candidates' policy positions are both ambiguous and they are "ambiguity complements." Abstaining is preferred since it is tantamount to mixing the prospects embodied by the two candidates, thus enabling the voter to "hedge" the candidates' ambiguity. [source] Growth rate constrain morphological divergence when driven by competitionOIKOS, Issue 1 2006Jens Olsson Resource competition has been hypothesized to be important in driving divergence by natural selection. The effect of competition on morphological divergence and plasticity has however rarely been investigated. Since low growth rates might constrain morphological modulation and individual growth rates usually are negatively related to the intensity of competition, there might be a connection between competition, growth rate and morphological divergence. We performed an aquarium experiment with young-of-the-year Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) to investigate how individual growth rate affected morphological plasticity induced by contrasting habitat treatments. Furthermore, in a field study of 10 lakes we also related the degree of morphological differentiation between habitats to the intraspecific competitior biomass. In the aquarium experiment we found that morphological plasticity was growth rate dependent in that morphological differentiation between the habitat treatments was confined to high individual growth rates. In the field study we found that morphological differentiation between habitats decreased with increasing intraspecific competitior biomass. Since plasticity is hypothesized to be important in divergence and intraspecific biomass could serve as a proxy for the level of competition, we suggest that our results indicate that morphological divergence might be constrained during periods of intense intraspecific competition due to low growth rates. A possible scenario is that at low growth rates all energy available is used for metabolic maintenance and no surplus energy is therefore available for morphological modulation. [source] On the detection of high-frequency oscillations in short gamma-ray burstsASTRONOMISCHE NACHRICHTEN, Issue 4 2009B.E. Zhilyaev Abstract In this work we present the results of an investigation aimed at a search for an oscillatory phenomenon during short gamma-ray bursts. The wavelet technique, used for this analysis, is applied to the data from the BATSE 3B catalogue. We have detected oscillations, which periods are found to be in the milliseconds range and their amplitudes up to dozens of percents. A possible scenario for such a phenomenon is the coalescence of stellar-mass black holes and neutron stars. During the coalescence process the matter orbiting the black hole produces rapid, periodic phenomena. Such system will also emit gravitational waves which cause the orbital radius to decrease and leads to the emission of a chirp of radiation. Estimates lead to a timescale of milliseconds for the coalescence process and oscillation frequencies of hundreds of Hz. The gamma-ray bursts considered in this paper, show both frequencies and survival times of oscillations close to the mentioned values. A chirp phenomenon is also present. We therefore argue in favor of the black hole , neutron star coalescence as a scenario for the production of short gamma-ray bursts (© 2009 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) [source] LINEAGES WITH LONG DURATIONS ARE OLD AND MORPHOLOGICALLY AVERAGE: AN ANALYSIS USING MULTIPLE DATASETSEVOLUTION, Issue 4 2007Lee Hsiang Liow Lineage persistence is as central to biology as evolutionary change. Important questions regarding persistence include: why do some lineages outlive their relatives, neither becoming extinct nor evolving into separate lineages? Do these long-duration lineages have distinctive ecological or morphological traits that correlate with their geologic durations and potentially aid their survival? In this paper, I test the hypothesis that lineages (species and higher taxa) with longer geologic durations have morphologies that are more average than expected by chance alone. I evaluate this hypothesis for both individual lineages with longer durations and groups of lineages with longer durations, using more than 60 published datasets of animals with adequate fossil records. Analyses presented here show that groups of lineages with longer durations fall empirically into one of three theoretically possible scenarios, namely: (1) the morphology of groups of longer duration lineages is closer to the grand average of their inclusive group, that is, their relative morphological distance is smaller than expected by chance alone, when compared with rarified samples of their shorter duration relatives (a negative group morpho-duration distribution); (2) the relative morphological distance of groups of longer duration lineages is no different from rarified samples of their shorter duration relatives (a null group morpho-duration distribution); and (3) the relative morphological distance of groups of longer duration lineages is greater than expected when compared with rarified samples of their shorter duration relatives (a positive group morpho-duration distribution). Datasets exhibiting negative group morpho-duration distributions predominate. However, lineages with higher ranks in the Linnean hierarchy demonstrate positive morpho-duration distributions more frequently. The relative morphological distance of individual longer duration lineages is no different from that of rarified samples of their shorter duration relatives (a null individual morpho-duration distribution) for the majority of datasets studied. Contrary to the common idea that very persistent lineages are special or unique in some significant way, both the results from analyses of long-duration lineages as groups and individuals show that they are morphologically average. Persistent lineages often arise early in a group's history, even though there is no prior expectation for this tendency in datasets of extinct groups. The implications of these results for diversification histories and niche preemption are discussed. [source] Adaptive management of an environmental watering event to enhance native fish spawning and recruitmentFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2010A. J. KING Summary 1. A common goal of many environmental flow regimes is to maintain and/or enhance the river's native fish community by increasing the occurrence of successful spawning and recruitment events. However, our understanding of the flow requirements of the early life history of fish is often limited, and hence predicting their response to specific managed flow events is difficult. To overcome this uncertainty requires the use of adaptive management principles in the design, implementation, monitoring and adjustment of environmental flow regimes. 2. The Barmah-Millewa Forest, a large river red gum forest on the Murray River floodplain, south-east Australia, contains a wide variety of ephemeral and permanent aquatic habitats suitable for fish. Flow regulation of the Murray River has significantly altered the natural flood regime of the Forest. In an attempt to alleviate some of the effects of river regulation, the Forest's water regime is highly managed using a variety of flow control structures and also receives targeted Environmental Water Allocations (EWA). In 2005, the largest environmental flow allocated to date in Australia was delivered at the Forest. 3. This study describes the adaptive management approach employed during the delivery of the 2005 EWA, which successfully achieved multiple ecological goals including enhanced native fish spawning and recruitment. Intensive monitoring of fish spawning and recruitment provided invaluable real-time and ongoing management input for optimising the delivery of environmental water to maximise ecological benefits at Barmah-Millewa Forest and other similar wetlands in the Murray-Darling Basin. 4. We discuss possible scenarios for the future application of environmental water and the need for environmental flow events and regimes to be conducted as rigorous, large-scale experiments within an adaptive management framework. [source] Beyond the Producer-driven/Buyer-driven Dichotomy The Evolution of Global Value Chains in the Internet EraIDS BULLETIN, Issue 3 2001Gary Gereffi Summaries The Internet is still in the early stages of its development, but its impact on global value chains is already evident. While it may be premature to try to identify lasting changes on producer-driven and buyer-driven chains, several possible scenarios are emerging and they are not mutually exclusive. The first scenario is that electronic commerce will lead to the emergence of infomediary-based value chains that privilege direct on-line access to consumers. A second scenario is that the Internet is really just extending the logic of buyer-driven chains as both information and power continue to shift inexorably from manufacturers, marketers and retailers to consumers. A third scenario is that the impact of the Internet will be captured and integrated into the practices of large established companies, thus reinforcing power relationships in existing producer-driven and buyer-driven governance structures. Although there is evidence to support all three scenarios, the third model currently seems to be dominant. [source] Iron oxidation state in impact glass from the K/T boundary at Beloc, Haiti, by high-resolution XANES spectroscopyMETEORITICS & PLANETARY SCIENCE, Issue 11 2005Gabriele Giuli The samples have been analyzed by Fe K-edge high-resolution X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy to obtain data on both the Fe oxidation state and the coordination number. The pre-edge peak of our high-resolution XANES spectra display noticeable variations indicative of significant changes in the Fe oxidation state spanning a wide range from about 20 to 75 mol% trivalent Fe. All data plot along the same trend, falling between two mixing lines joining a point calculated as the mean of a group of tektites studied so far (consisting of four- and five-coordinated Fe2+) to [4]Fe3+ and [5]Fe3+, respectively. Thus, the XANES spectra can be interpreted as a mixture of [4]Fe2+, [5]Fe2+, [4]Fe3+, and [5]Fe3+. There is no evidence for six-fold coordinated Fe; however, its presence in small amounts cannot be excluded from XANES data alone. Our observations can be explained by two possible scenarios: either these impact glasses formed under very reducing conditions and, because of their small size, were easily oxidized in air while still molten, or they formed under a variety of different oxygen fugacities resulting in different Fe oxidation states. In the first case, the oxidation state and coordination number would imply similar formation conditions as splash-form tektites, followed by progressive oxidation. [source] Phylogeography of the olive sea snake, Aipysurus laevis (Hydrophiinae) indicates Pleistocene range expansion around northern Australia but low contemporary gene flowMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 16 2007V. LUKOSCHEK Abstract Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations profoundly changed landmass configurations around northern Australia. The cyclic emergence of the Torres Strait land bridge and concomitant shifts in the distribution of shallow-water marine habitats repeatedly sundered east and west coast populations. These biogeographical perturbations invoke three possible scenarios regarding the directions of interglacial range expansion: west to east, east to west, or bidirectional. We evaluated these scenarios for the olive sea snake, Aipysurus laevis, by exploring its genetic structure around northern Australia based on 354 individuals from 14 locations in three regions (Western Australia, WA; Gulf of Carpentaria, GoC; Great Barrier Reef, GBR). A 726-bp fragment of the mitochondrial DNA ND4 region revealed 41 variable sites and 38 haplotypes, with no shared haplotypes among the three regions. Population genetic structure was strong overall, ,ST = 0.78, P < 0.001, and coalescent analyses revealed no migration between regions. Genetic diversity was low in the GBR and GoC and the genetic signatures of these regions indicated range or population expansions consistent with their recent marine transgressions around 7000 years ago. By contrast, genetic diversity on most WA reefs was higher and there were no signals of recent expansion events on these reefs. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that GBR and GoC haplotypes were derived from WA haplotypes; however, statistical parsimony suggested that recent range expansion in the GBR-GoC probably occurred from east coast populations, possibly in the Coral Sea. Levels of contemporary female-mediated gene flow varied within regions and reflected potential connectivity among populations afforded by the different regional habitat types. [source] Reducing value chain vulnerability to terrorist attacks,PROCESS SAFETY PROGRESS, Issue 1 2005A.M. (Tony) Downes Like most U.S. chemical companies, you probably know where your security-sensitive inventories are located within your sites and have assured yourself that you have taken reasonable precautions to reduce the risk of their being used in a terrorist attack. What about when you ship them? How secure are the various parts of your value chain,offsite storage and transportation of your products, raw materials, intermediates, and wastes, and processing of ordering and invoicing transactions? Value chain security focuses on tampering and misuse of materials handled outside the plant boundaries. At FMC, we took a three-stage approach to identifying and dealing with potential security issues posed by materials in transit. Stage 1 was a quick review to determine which of our products, intermediates, or raw materials might be potentially useful to terrorists. In Stage 2 we looked for specific security-emergency scenarios that might involve those chemicals, estimated the risk of those scenarios, and made recommendations to reduce the vulnerability to terrorist attack. In Stage 3 we are implementing the plans we developed. FMC's approach has successfully focused our efforts and used familiar techniques to break down complex Value Chains into manageable sections and then to identify the possible scenarios and (relative) risks at each section. We were able to do this with minimal travel costs. This paper describes the general organization of FMC's value chain security efforts and our analysis technique, and discusses lessons (including a few surprises) that we have learned from the analyses. © 2005 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog, 2005 [source] Fire exposure of liquid-filled vesselsPROCESS SAFETY PROGRESS, Issue 1 2003Larry L. Simpson Pressure vessels in the chemical industry generally have top-mounted pressure relief valves (PRVs) sized to handle fire exposure and other possible scenarios. Designers usually assume that the fire scenario causes liquid to boil and vapor to vent, regardless of the initial liquid level. Under some circumstances, however, a high liquid level, together with thermal expansion, can result in a vessel being full of liquid when the PRV opens. If so, the initial fluid discharged through the PRV would be a two-phase gas-liquid stream. This paper analyzes non-reactive phenomena occurring during the heat-up and venting process in non-agitated liquid-filled pressure vessels. A new criterion is developed to determine if the vapor-venting sizing assumption is justified. Results from several cases show that pressures in most liquid-filled vessels sized for vapor-only flow will be below the ASME Code-allowable values during fire exposure. Hence, the common industry practice of ignoring two-phase flow when sizing fire cases is usually justified. [source] Historical aspects, current status and prospects of pejerrey aquaculture in South AmericaAQUACULTURE RESEARCH, Issue 7 2008Gustavo M Somoza Abstract The pejerrey Odontesthes bonariensis (Valenciennes, 1835) is an inland water fish from the Pampas region comprising part of Argentina, Uruguay and the South of Brazil. Pejerrey is a very popular fish in this region and has a long history of domestic and international introductions, which attests to the high quality and market value of its flesh, as well as its attractiveness as a game fish. The desirable characteristics of pejerrey also make it a good candidate for aquaculture, and the first trials on pejerrey cultivation (atheriniculture) were started more than a century ago in Argentina. In spite of the considerable interest in its development, little progress has been made and atheriniculture is still restricted to propagation and stocking for sport fishing purposes. In this review, we summarize the history of atheriniculture and the biological, technological, scientific, cultural and infrastructural constraints to pejerrey aquaculture development thus far. We also suggest possible scenarios of pejerrey aquaculture development compatible with the socio,economic conditions of South American countries. Our projections also take into consideration recent scientific findings on the biology of pejerrey and technological advances in seafood processing, storage and transportation, as well as the latest trends of seafood consumption and international markets. The best production strategy remains to be determined by trial and error but it is likely that, initially, production should focus on a differentiated, high-quality fish for the premium or international markets rather than attempting to compete with the cheap fish from natural sources. An international cooperation project with Japan has successfully demonstrated the feasibility of breeding pejerrey in captivity and mass producing seeds efficiently in Argentina, and has provided the foundation for the development of intensive and extensive farming of this species. [source] On the economic interdependence between China and Japan: Challenges and possibilitiesASIA PACIFIC VIEWPOINT, Issue 2 2009Claes G. Alvstam Abstract The paper presents an analysis of the economic relationship between the two most important economies in Asia. Over the last decades, the Chinese and Japanese economies have become more economically interdependent, a development which will, in the long run, impact the countries' political relationship. The paper seeks to answer the question: How can China and Japan gain from the current economic situation, further enhance their relationship and increase their synergies for regional economic development? Data on trade and Foreign Direct Investment are used in combination with primary data from interviews with Japanese and Chinese companies on how they perceive the current business situation and future potential. The result of the data analysis shows that the countries have much to gain from their economic interdependence. The firms see great potential in their respective markets but are concerned about political turbulence. Three possible scenarios for the future economic relationship are presented, including fierce competition on all markets and a leveraging of resources for mutual development between Chinese and Japanese companies. [source] Large-scale production, harvest and logistics of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) , current technology and envisioning a mature technologyBIOFUELS, BIOPRODUCTS AND BIOREFINING, Issue 2 2009Shahab Sokhansanj Abstract Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a promising cellulosic biomass feedstock for biorefineries and biofuel production. This paper reviews current and future potential technologies for production, harvest, storage, and transportation of switchgrass. Our analysis indicates that for a yield of 10 Mg ha,1, the current cost of producing switchgrass (after establishment) is about $41.50 Mg,1. The costs may be reduced to about half this if the yield is increased to 30 Mg ha,1 through genetic improvement, intensive crop management, and/or optimized inputs. At a yield of 10 Mg ha,1, we estimate that harvesting costs range from $23.72 Mg,1 for current baling technology to less than $16 Mg,1 when using a loafing collection system. At yields of 20 and 30 Mg ha,1 with an improved loafing system, harvesting costs are even lower at $12.75 Mg,1 and $9.59 Mg,1, respectively. Transport costs vary depending upon yield and fraction of land under switchgrass, bulk density of biomass, and total annual demand of a biorefinery. For a 2000 Mg d,1 plant and an annual yield of 10 Mg ha,1, the transport cost is an estimated $15.42 Mg,1, assuming 25% of the land is under switchgrass production. Total delivered cost of switchgrass using current baling technology is $80.64 Mg,1, requiring an energy input of 8.5% of the feedstock higher heating value (HHV). With mature technology, for example, a large, loaf-collection system, the total delivered cost is reduced to about $71.16 Mg,1 with 7.8% of the feedstock HHV required as input. Further cost reduction can be achieved by combining mature technology with increased crop productivity. Delivered cost and energy input do not vary significantly as biorefinery capacity increases from 2000 Mg d,1 to 5000 Mg d,1 because the cost of increased distance to access a larger volume feedstock offsets the gains in increased biorefinery capacity. This paper outlines possible scenarios for the expansion of switchgrass handling to 30 Tg (million Mg) in 2015 and 100 Tg in 2030 based on predicted growth of the biorefinery industry in the USA. The value of switchgrass collection operations is estimated at more than $0.6 billion in 2015 and more than $2.1 billion in 2030. The estimated value of post-harvest operations is $0.6,$2.0 billion in 2015, and $2.0,$6.5 billion in 2030, depending on the degree of preprocessing. The need for power equipment (tractors) will increase from 100 MW in 2015 to 666 MW in 2030, with corresponding annual values of $150 and $520 million, respectively. © 2009 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd [source] Impact of Population Substructure on Trend Tests for Genetic Case,Control Association StudiesBIOMETRICS, Issue 1 2010Gang Zheng Summary Hidden population substructure in case,control data has the potential to distort the performance of Cochran,Armitage trend tests (CATTs) for genetic associations. Three possible scenarios that may arise are investigated here: (i) heterogeneity of genotype frequencies across unidentified subpopulations (PSI), (ii) heterogeneity of genotype frequencies and disease risk across unidentified subpopulations (PSII), and (iii) cryptic correlations within unidentified subpopulations. A unified approach is presented for deriving the bias and variance distortion under the three scenarios for any CATT in a general family. Using these analytical formulas, we evaluate the excess type I errors of the CATTs numerically in the presence of population substructure. Our results provide insight into the properties of some proposed corrections for bias and variance distortion and show why they may not fully correct for the effects of population substructure. [source] Low Intensity Democracies: Latin America in the Post-dictatorial EraBULLETIN OF LATIN AMERICAN RESEARCH, Issue 4 2001Dirk Kruit In the context of the Cold War and accompanied by the doctrines of National Security, authoritarian and often repressive military or civil-military regimes emerged in a number of Latin American countries. However, military regimes were not the only ones contributing to the formation of societies mutilated by fear and terror. During the last four decades, the continent became affected by a cycle of violence that involved various armed actors, from the armed forces to the guerrilla, from the paramilitaries to the narcotics-trafficking Mafia, or from the committees of self-defence to the ,common' criminals. This article focuses on the persistence of military influence and organised political violence more general in post-authoritarian and indeed post-Cold War Latin America. After briefly reviewing the historical legacy of so-called ,political armies' in the region as a whole, I offer an assessment of the consequences of this legacy for the current agenda of democratic consolidation in Latin America. Two possible scenarios are examined: that of fairly progressive democratisation and civilianisation of politics, and that of the re-emergence of violence despite the formal rule of democracy. In the latter scenario, de facto harsh and violent regimes collide with a growing array of rival perpetrators of political and other forms of organised violence. [source] Political Economy of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area: A Dilemma for ChinaCHINA AND WORLD ECONOMY, Issue 5 2007Bin Sheng F53; F59; O53 Abstract The Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP) has become a topic of focus since the proposal was first raised in 2004. The present paper considers China's policy towards the FTAAP from a political economy perspective by probing the gains, impediments and concerns for China, and makes judgments based on several possible scenarios. The author argues that from an economic perspective, China would benefit from joining the FTAAP both in a static and a dynamic manner because both its main trade partners and trade barriers in export markets are concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region. However, whether the Chinese Government is likely to support the initiative is largely dependent on certain crucial political and diplomatic elements, including the APEC approach, US-Chinese relations, quality of treaty, sensitive sectors, competitive proposal of alternative and membership of Chinese Taipei. Therefore, if the Chinese Government cannot ratify the ideology and terms of the initiative, or issues that are central to China's interests are not addressed, the FTAAP will only remain a proposal possessing economic possibility in the long run, without political feasibility in the near term. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||