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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (pacific + decadal_oscillation)
Selected AbstractsEstablishing climate,growth relationships for yelloweye rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus) in the northeast Pacific using a dendrochronological approachFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 5 2008BRYAN A. BLACK Abstract We applied dendrochronology (tree-ring) methods to develop multidecadal growth chronologies from the increment widths of yelloweye rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus) otoliths. Chronologies were developed for the central California coast, a site just north of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, and at Bowie Seamount west of the Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia. At each site, synchronous growth patterns were matched among otoliths via the process of cross-dating, ensuring that the correct calendar year was assigned to all increments. Each time series of growth-increment measurements was divided by the values predicted by a best-fit negative exponential function, thereby removing age-related trends. These detrended time series were averaged into a master chronology for each site, and chronologies were correlated with monthly averages of sea surface temperatures, upwelling, the Northern Oscillation Index, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The two northern growth chronologies positively correlated with indices of warm ocean conditions, especially from the prior summer through the spring of the current year. During the same period, the California chronology positively correlated with indices of cool ocean conditions, indicating an opposing productivity regime for yelloweye rockfish between the California Current and the Gulf of Alaska. Overall, this study demonstrates how tree-ring techniques can be applied to quickly develop annually resolved chronologies and establish climate,growth relationships across various temporal and spatial scales. [source] Spatial and temporal variability of the Aleutian climateFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 2005SERGEI N. RODIONOV Abstract The objective of this paper is to highlight those characteristics of climate variability that may pertain to the climate hypothesis regarding the long-term population decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus). The seasonal changes in surface air temperature (SAT) across the Aleutian Islands are relatively uniform, from 5 to 10°C in summer to near freezing temperatures in winter. The interannual and interdecadal variations in SAT, however, are substantially different for the eastern and western Aleutians, with the transition found at about 170°W. The eastern Aleutians experienced a regime shift toward a warmer climate in 1977, simultaneously with the basin-wide shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In contrast, the western Aleutians show a steady decline in winter SATs that started in the 1950s. This cooling trend was accompanied by a trend toward more variable SAT, both on the inter- and intra-annual time scale. During 1986,2002, the variance of winter SATs more than doubled compared to 1965,1985. At the same time in Southeast Alaska, the SAT variance diminished by half. Much of the increase in the intra-seasonal variability for the western Aleutians is associated with a warming trend in November and a cooling trend in January. As a result, the rate of seasonal cooling from November to January has doubled since the late 1950s. We hypothesize that this trend in SAT variability may have increased the environmental stress on the western stock of Steller sea lions and hence contributed to its decline. [source] Fluctuations of Vanessa cardui butterfly abundance with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation climatic variablesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2003ROBERT VANDENBOSCH Abstract Annual 4th of July Butterfly Count data spanning more than 20 years are examined to explore Vanessa cardui (Painted Lady) population fluctuations with ENSO (El Niño) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices. California, Colorado and Nebraska censuses exhibit a strong positive correlation with the strong El Niño events of 1982,1983 and 1997,1998 and the weaker event of 1991,1992. Regression analysis shows the population fluctuations are strongly coupled to climate variations on both short (El Niño) and longer (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) time scales. Recognizing the sensitivity to these time scales is important for predicting longer-term global climate change effects. [source] Analysis of snow cover variability and change in Québec, 1948,2005HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 14 2010Ross D. Brown Abstract The spatial and temporal characteristics of annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax) and fall and spring snow cover duration (SCD) were analysed over Québec and adjacent area for snow seasons 1948/1949,2004/2005 using reconstructed daily snow depth and SWE. Snow cover variability in Québec was found to be significantly correlated with most of the major atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the climate of eastern North America but the influence was characterized by strong multidecadal-scale variability. The strongest and most consistent relationship was observed between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and fall SCD variability over western Québec. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a limited impact on Québec snow cover. Evidence was found for a shift in circulation over the study region around 1980 associated with an abrupt increase in sea level pressure (SLP) and decreases in winter precipitation, snow depth and SWE over much of southern Québec, as well as changes in the atmospheric patterns with significant links to snow cover variability. Trend analysis of the reconstructed snow cover over 1948,2005 provided evidence of a clear north,south gradient in SWEmax and spring SCD with significant local decreases over southern Québec and significant local increases over north-central Québec. The increase in SWEmax over northern Québec is consistent with proxy data (lake levels, tree growth forms, permafrost temperatures), with hemispheric-wide trends of increasing precipitation over higher latitudes, and with projections of global climate models (GCMs). Copyright © 2010 Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons. Ltd [source] Regime-dependent streamflow sensitivities to Pacific climate modes cross the Georgia,Puget transboundary ecoregionHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 24 2007Sean W. Fleming Abstract The Georgia Basin,Puget Sound Lowland region of British Columbia (Canada) and Washington State (USA) presents a crucial test in environmental management due to its combination of abundant salmonid habitat, rapid population growth and urbanization, and multiple national jurisdictions. It is also hydrologically complex and heterogeneous, containing at least three streamflow regimes: pluvial (rainfall-driven winter freshet), nival (melt-driven summer freshet), and hybrid (both winter and summer freshets), reflecting differing elevation ranges within various watersheds. We performed bootstrapped composite analyses of river discharge, air temperature, and precipitation data to assess El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) impacts upon annual hydrometeorological cycles across the study area. Canadian and American data were employed from a total of 21 hydrometric and four meteorological stations. The surface meteorological anomalies showed strong regional coherence. In contrast, the seasonal impacts of coherent modes of Pacific circulation variability were found to be fundamentally different between streamflow regimes. Thus, ENSO and PDO effects can vary from one stream to the next within this region, albeit in a systematic way. Furthermore, watershed glacial cover appeared to complicate such relationships locally; and an additional annual streamflow regime was identified that exhibits climatically driven non-linear phase transitions. The spatial heterogeneity of seasonal flow responses to climatic variability may have substantial implications to catchment-specific management and planning of water resources and hydroelectric power generation, and it may also have ecological consequences due to the matching or phase-locking of lotic and riparian biological activity and life cycles to the seasonal cycle. The results add to a growing body of literature suggesting that assessments of the streamflow impacts of ocean,atmosphere circulation modes must accommodate local hydrological characteristics and dynamics. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. The copyright in Paul H. Whitfield's contribution belongs to the Crown in right of Canada and such copyright material is reproduced with the permission of Environment Canada. [source] Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity in the South China SeaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2010Andy Zung-Ching Goh Abstract This study attempts to identify the factors affecting annual tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the South China Sea (SCS) using data during the period 1965,2005. The results indicate that the total number of TCs and number of TCs entering the SCS from the Western North Pacific are below normal in El Niño events but above normal during La Niña events. However, for TCs formed inside the SCS, the difference in numbers between the two phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not as obvious. In addition, the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) generally favours less TCs in all categories, while the negative PDO phase favours more. These results may be explained by the fact that the ENSO and the PDO affect TC behaviour through altering the conditions in the WNP to be favourable or unfavourable for TC genesis and movement into the SCS. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] On ENSO impacts on European wintertime rainfalls and their modulation by the NAO and the Pacific multi-decadal variability described through the PDO indexINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2008Davide Zanchettin Abstract While strong relationships have previously been established between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate variability in many parts of the world, previous analyses of ENSO impacts on European rainfalls have been variable and inconclusive. In this paper, the role and apparent interactions of a range of known teleconnections are assessed. It is shown that ENSO events do indeed appear to impact European rainfalls and that these impacts are likely to also depend on the concurrent state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In particular, it is demonstrated that ENSO impacts most significantly on European wintertime rainfalls during positive (warm) phases of the PDO. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceansINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2006Gregory J. McCabe Abstract Principal components analysis (PCA) and singular value decomposition (SVD) are used to identify the primary modes of decadal and multidecadal variability in annual global Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The PDSI and SST data for 1925,2003 were detrended and smoothed (with a 10-year moving average) to isolate the decadal and multidecadal variability. The first two principal components (PCs) of the PDSI PCA explained almost 38% of the decadal and multidecadal variance in the detrended and smoothed global annual PDSI data. The first two PCs of detrended and smoothed global annual SSTs explained nearly 56% of the decadal variability in global SSTs. The PDSI PCs and the SST PCs are directly correlated in a pairwise fashion. The first PDSI and SST PCs reflect variability of the detrended and smoothed annual Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as detrended and smoothed annual Indian Ocean SSTs. The second set of PCs is strongly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The SVD analysis of the cross-covariance of the PDSI and SST data confirmed the close link between the PDSI and SST modes of decadal and multidecadal variation and provided a verification of the PCA results. These findings indicate that the major modes of multidecadal variations in SSTs and land-surface climate conditions are highly interrelated through a small number of spatially complex but slowly varying teleconnections. Therefore, these relations may be adaptable to providing improved baseline conditions for seasonal climate forecasting. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Projecting the risk of future climate shiftsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2006David B. Enfield Abstract Recent research has shown that decadal-to-multidecadal (D2M) climate variability is associated with environmental changes that have important consequences for human activities, such as public health, water availability, frequency of hurricanes, and so forth. As scientists, how do we convert these relationships into decision support products useful to water managers, insurance actuaries, and others, whose principal interest lies in knowing when future climate regime shifts will likely occur that affect long-horizon decisions? Unfortunately, numerical models are far from being able to make deterministic predictions for future D2M climate shifts. However, the recent development of paleoclimate reconstructions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (Gray et al., 2004) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); (MacDonald and Case, 2005) give us a viable alternative: to estimate probability distribution functions from long climate index series that allow us to calculate the probability of future D2M regime shifts. In this paper, we show how probabilistic projections can be developed for a specific climate mode,the AMO as represented by the Gray et al. (2004) tree-ring reconstruction. The methods are robust and can be applied to any D2M climate mode for which a sufficiently long index series exists, as well as to the growing body of paleo-proxy reconstructions that have become available. The target index need not be a paleo-proxy calibrated against a climate index; it may profitably be calibrated against a specific resource of interest, such as stream flow or lake levels. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Features of cross-Pacific climate shown in the variability of China and US precipitationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2005Q. Li Abstract In this study, we have analyzed the climate features of China and the United States with a focus on the differences, similarities, connectivity, and predictability of precipitation and the relationships between precipitation and large-scale patterns of natural variability. China precipitation is characterized by large seasonality, with a maximum in summer and a minimum in winter. The seasonality of precipitation shows an increasing linear tendency in northwest China, with a change of about 20% from 1901 to 1998. A relatively weaker increasing tendency also appears in the Big Bend of Yellow River (BBYR) and the Tibetan Plateau, while southwest China experiences a decreasing tendency. Furthermore, the seasonality in the BBYR shows particularly significant interdecadal variability, while that of southern and eastern China has decreased slightly in the recent decades. Compared to China, the United States as a whole has less precipitation in summer but more precipitation in other seasons. Here, the seasonality of precipitation is only about 24% of that in China. The annual mean precipitation is 64.1 mm per month in the United States, compared to 54.6 mm per month in China. The seasonality of precipitation exhibits a decreasing tendency in the southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Gulf Coast and an increasing tendency in the Great Lakes. The seasonality in the Great Plains exhibits large interdecadal variability. The long-term variations of precipitation are highly seasonally dependent. In summer, a decreasing trend is observed in north China and an increasing trend is found in eastern-central China. However, these trends are almost opposite in spring. In addition, the fall precipitation decreases with time nearly everywhere in China except for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley. Results also indicate that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the North Pacific (NP) fluctuation affect strongly the variations of China and US precipitation. Although these influences vary with regions and seasons, we in particular emphasize the importance of AO and NAO for China precipitation and NP and PDO for US precipitation. In fall, ENSO and PDO are the two phenomena that influence predominantly precipitation variability in both China and the United States We also identify the common phenomena that influence China and US regional precipitation and provide a better understanding of the physical mechanism for precipitation variability through the associated changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Furthermore, we develop a linear regression model, based on multiple regression method by combining the regionally and seasonally varying impacts, to increase the skill of precipitation prediction. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Influences of climate on fire regimes in montane forests of north-western MexicoJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 8 2008Carl N. Skinner Abstract Aim, To identify the influence of interannual and interdecadal climate variation on the occurrence and extent of fires in montane conifer forests of north-western Mexico. Location, This study was conducted in Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf.)-dominated mixed-conifer forests in the central and northern plateau of the Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Baja California, Mexico. Methods, Fire occurrence was reconstructed for 12 dispersed sites for a 290-year period (1700,1990) from cross-dated fire-scarred samples extracted from live trees, snags and logs. Superposed epoch analysis was used to examine the relationships of tree-ring reconstructions of drought, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with fire occurrence and extent. Results, Years with no recorded fire scars were wetter than average. In contrast, years of widespread fires were dry and associated with phase changes of the PDO, usually from positive (warm) to negative (cold). The influence of the PDO was most evident during the La Niña phase of the ENSO. Widespread fires were also associated with warm/wet conditions 5 years before the fire. We hypothesize that the 5-year lag between warm/wet conditions and widespread fires may be associated with the time necessary to build up sufficient quantity and continuity of needle litter to support widespread fires. Two periods of unusually high fire activity (1770,1800 and 1920,1950) were each followed by several decades of unusually low fire activity. The switch in each case was associated with strong phase changes in both PDO and ENSO. Main conclusions, Climate strongly influences fire regimes in the mountains of north-western Mexico. Wet/warm years are associated with little fire activity. However, these years may contribute to subsequent fire years by encouraging the production of sufficient needle litter to support more widespread fires that occur in dry/cool years. [source] 84 Linking environmental forcing, kelp forest habitat dynamics, and community structure in the northeast pacificJOURNAL OF PHYCOLOGY, Issue 2003B.P. Kinlan Habitat-forming species of large brown macroalgae (e.g., kelps) often differ from associated benthic species in resource requirements, sources of disturbance, and dispersal ability. Differences in environmental drivers and demographic processes may cause these habitats to fluctuate at spatial and temporal scales that differ from the "optimal" scale that would promote maximum abundance of any particular associate species. As a result, the spatiotemporal dynamics of habitat may exert important effects on benthic community structure and composition. To quantify the spatial and temporal dynamics of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), a key habitat-former in the NE Pacific, I analyzed a 34-year monthly time series of estimated canopy biomass spanning ,1500 km of coastline (7° of latitude) and digital maps of annual maximum canopy cover. Canopy biomass varied interannually at dominant periods of 4,5 y, 11,13 y and ,20 y, and spatial scales ranging from local (,30 km) to mesoscale (,100,150 km) and regional (,330 km). Temporal dynamics were strongly related to basin-scale climate fluctuations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and spatial patterns were correlated with coastline geomorphology. Digital canopy maps reveal that changes in biomass are associated with shifts in the spatial structure of the kelp habitat. Long-term subtidal community monitoring data from areas with markedly different spatial and temporal scales of kelp forest habitat structure reveal a complex but important influence of habitat dynamics on the distribution of life histories within kelp-associated communities. Future changes in the dynamics of Pacific climate fluctuations may have important implications for kelp forest community structure. [source] Change in the dominant decadal patterns and the late 1980s abrupt warming in the extratropical Northern HemisphereATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 3 2010Tzu-Ting Lo Abstract Widespread abrupt warming in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (NH) occurred in the late 1980s. This warming was associated with a change in the relative influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-like pattern and the Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like pattern. The AO-like pattern has had a dominant influence on the NH-mean temperature since the late 1980s, whereas the influence of the PDO has weakened. The AO-like mode appears as part of natural variability in the pre-industrial simulations of the CMIP3/IPCC climate models. However, its emergence in the late 1980s was not simulated by most models with or without the observed increasing greenhouse effect in the 20th century. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Did ciguatera prompt the late Holocene Polynesian voyages of discovery?JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 8 2009Teina Rongo Abstract The famous Polynesian voyages characterized an intensive network of cultural exchange and colonization that was particularly active from ad 1000 to 1450. But, why would large groups of people leave their homelands to voyage into the unknown? Oceanic voyages are risky, albeit less so today than in the past. Landfalls were not guaranteed improvements over ports of departure. Taking the Cook Islands as an example, we ask whether harmful algal blooms that result in ciguatera fish poisoning in humans prompted past and present emigration pulses of peoples from within Polynesia. We take a multipronged approach to examine our hypothesis, involving: (1) archaeological evidence, (2) ciguatera fish poisoning reports since the 1940s, and (3) climate and temperature oscillations using palaeodatasets. The archaeological records of fish bones and hooks show abrupt changes in fishing practices in post- ad 1450 records. Sudden dietary shifts are not linked to overfishing, but may be a sign of ciguatera fish poisoning and adjustment of fishing preference. While fishes form the staple diet of Polynesians, such poisoning renders fishes unusable. We show that ciguatera fish poisoning events coincide with Pacific Decadal Oscillations and suggest that the celebrated Polynesian voyages across the Pacific Ocean may not have been random episodes of discovery to colonize new lands, but rather voyages of necessity. A modern analogue (in the 1990s) was the shift towards processed foods in the Cook Islands during ciguatera fish poisoning events, and mass emigration of islanders to New Zealand and Australia. [source] Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool?GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 12 2005Jeremy L. Weiss Abstract Freezing temperatures strongly influence vegetation in the hottest desert of North America, in part determining both its overall boundary and distributions of plant species within. To evaluate recent variability of freezing temperatures in this context, minimum temperature data from weather stations in the Sonoran Desert are examined. Data show widespread warming trends in winter and spring, decreased frequency of freezing temperatures, lengthening of the freeze-free season, and increased minimum temperatures per winter year. Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does, however, correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human-dominated global warming. With warming expected to continue at faster rates throughout the 21st century, potential ecological responses may include contraction of the overall boundary of the Sonoran Desert in the south-east and expansion northward, eastward, and upward in elevation, as well as changes to distributions of plant species within and other characteristics of Sonoran Desert ecosystems. Potential trajectories of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert region may be affected or made more difficult to predict by uncertain changes in warm season precipitation variability and fire. Opportunities now exist to investigate ecosystem response to regional climate disturbance, as well as to anticipate and plan for continued warming in the Sonoran Desert region. [source] Climatic effects on the phenology of lake processesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 11 2004Monika Winder Abstract Populations living in seasonal environments are exposed to systematic changes in physical conditions that restrict the growth and reproduction of many species to only a short time window of the annual cycle. Several studies have shown that climate changes over the latter part of the 20th century affected the phenology and population dynamics of single species. However, the key limitation to forecasting the effects of changing climate on ecosystems lies in understanding how it will affect interactions among species. We investigated the effects of climatic and biotic drivers on physical and biological lake processes, using a historical dataset of 40 years from Lake Washington, USA, and dynamic time-series models to explain changes in the phenological patterns among physical and biological components of pelagic ecosystems. Long-term climate warming and variability because of large-scale climatic patterns like Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and El Niño,southern oscillation (ENSO) extended the duration of the stratification period by 25 days over the last 40 years. This change was due mainly to earlier spring stratification (16 days) and less to later stratification termination in fall (9 days). The phytoplankton spring bloom advanced roughly in parallel to stratification onset and in 2002 it occurred about 19 days earlier than it did in 1962, indicating the tight connection of spring phytoplankton growth to turbulent conditions. In contrast, the timing of the clear-water phase showed high variability and was mainly driven by biotic factors. Among the zooplankton species, the timing of spring peaks in the rotifer Keratella advanced strongly, whereas Leptodiaptomus and Daphnia showed slight or no changes. These changes have generated a growing time lag between the spring phytoplankton peak and zooplankton peak, which can be especially critical for the cladoceran Daphnia. Water temperature, PDO, and food availability affected the timing of the spring peak in zooplankton. Overall, the impact of PDO on the phenological processes were stronger compared with ENSO. Our results highlight that climate affects physical and biological processes differently, which can interrupt energy flow among trophic levels, making ecosystem responses to climate change difficult to forecast. [source] Characterizing regional-scale variations in monthly and seasonal surface air temperature over MexicoINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 15 2004Phil J. Englehart Abstract Monthly and seasonal variations in surface air temperature (SAT) over Mexico have not received much research attention, a situation partly reflecting the lack of a coherent historical data set. As a step toward rectifying the data gap, this study outlines the development of a gridded monthly (2.5° × 2.5°lat.,long.) SAT data set (1940,2001) for Mexico. Using the data set, we investigate several basic dimensions of SAT variability. Our analysis demonstrates that much of the variability can be compactly expressed in terms of four regions which are physically plausible with respect to the country's climatology. Not surprisingly, persistence is an important component of regional SAT variability. Evaluated month to month, persistence tends to be greatest during the warm season, whereas across seasons there is evidence for persistence of warm season anomalies into the following cool season, behaviour that is consistent with positive feedback relationships between SAT, rainfall and land surface conditions. The regional time series display longer period variability that is partially linked to the state of the large-scale, slowly evolving climate modes of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation. Analyses are also presented to describe teleconnections between SAT and the El Niño,southern oscillation phenomena, and SAT and other large-scale atmospheric modes, such as the Pacific North American pattern and the North Atlantic oscillation. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation of streamflow in a rainshadow river basin,INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2003Eric P. Salathé Jr Abstract Global simulations of precipitation from climate models lack sufficient resolution and contain large biases that make them unsuitable for regional studies, such as forcing hydrologic simulations. In this study, the effectiveness of several methods to downscale large-scale precipitation is examined. To facilitate comparisons with observations and to remove uncertainties in other fields, large-scale predictor fields to be downscaled are taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction,National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalyses. Three downscaling methods are used: (1): a local scaling of the simulated large-scale precipitation; (2) a modified scaling of simulated precipitation that takes into account the large-scale wind field; and (3) an analogue method with 1000 hPa heights as predictor. A hydrologic model of the Yakima River in central Washington state, USA, is then forced by the three downscaled precipitation datasets. Simulations with the raw large-scale precipitation and gridded observations are also made. Comparisons among these simulated flows reveal the effectiveness of the downscaling methods. The local scaling of the simulated large-scale precipitation is shown to be quite successful and simple to implement. Furthermore, the tuning of the downscaling methods is valid across phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation, suggesting that the methods are applicable to climate-change studies. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The effect of large-scale circulation on precipitation and streamflow in the Gulf of California continental watershedINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2003Luis Brito-Castillo Abstract The interannual variability of summer and winter rainfall and streamflow in the Gulf of California continental watershed is compared. Varimax-rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to 15 streamflow series, in the period from 1960 to 1990, and two regions are defined: a central region and a southern region. Results show that in both regions, between 1944 and 1999, the long-term rainfall variability is well explained by the long-term streamflow variability in both seasons, the result being statistically significant at the 95% level. We conclude that regional streamflows in that period are climate driven. This conclusion is reinforced when we show that the large-scale circulation (700 hPa heights) explains: (i) wet and dry conditions in both regions; (ii) conditions of wet and dry years with the same signal of El Niño and La Niña events; and (iii) long-term periods in association with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). When the PDO is in its warm phase, summers are likely to be dry with an El Niño event and wet with a La Niña event. In the cool phase of the PDO, summers are influenced by more localized events (i.e. the position of the subtropical continental ridge). In winter, warm and cool phases of the PDO are likely to be associated with wet and dry winters respectively. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Predictability of seasonal east coast winter storm surge impacts with application to New York's Long IslandMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 2 2008Arthur T. DeGaetano Abstract The characteristics of seasons with enhanced east coast winter storm (ECWS) and storm surge activity are identified from among a set of global atmospheric circulation indices and local land and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Without regard for storm strength or surge potential, the most active ECWS seasons occur in association with El Niño events. There is also some indication that such seasons are preferred under the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In terms of storm surge potential, forecasts of strong ECWS activity are more skillful than direct forecasts of the number of extreme surge events. In both cases, SSTs off the southeast US coast and in the Gulf of Mexico differentiate high seasonal activity from relatively inactive seasons. Warmer-than-normal SSTs in both regions during summer provide a measure of storm activity in the subsequent winter. The results provide a means of anticipating seasonal ECWS activity, and to some degree impacts, that is similar to widely used forecasts of tropical storm activity. From a predictive standpoint, forecasts of active strong storm seasons and low surge activity exhibit fairly high false alarm ratios. However, the false alarm rate for forecasts of low storm activity or high surge activity is less than 10%. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | |||||||||||||