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Output Growth Rate (output + growth_rate)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Humanities and Social Sciences	50%
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	50%

Selected Abstracts

TheConvergence of the Italian Regions and Unemployment: Theory and Evidence

JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, Issue 3 2002
Gaetano Carmeci
We explore the links between the halt of the convergence process of Italian regions at the beginning of the 1970s and the increase in regional unemployment dispersion. We consider a neoclassical exogenous growth model with an imperfect labor market and show that during the transitional dynamics the imperfections of the labor market negatively influence the output growth rate. In particular, the model implies that centralized bargaining is likely to set a national minimum wage that is too high with respect to the labor productivity of the less developed regions, resulting in a negative impact on their per capita output growth. We test the implications of the model on a regional panel data set using the GMM framework. Both our market distortion measure and the unemployment rate are found to significantly lower the growth rate of per capita output. [source]

MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: ARE THEY RELATED?

THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 2005
DON BREDIN
We use a very general bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in-mean model and G7 monthly data covering the 1957,2003 period to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions. First, in most countries output growth uncertainty is a positive determinant of the output growth rate. Second, there is mixed evidence regarding the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Hence, contrary to popular belief, uncertainty about the inflation rate is not necessarily detrimental to economic growth but in some cases it may also enhance growth. Finally, there is mixed evidence on the effect of output uncertainty on inflation. In sum, our results indicate that macroeconomic uncertainty may even improve macroeconomic performance. [source]

Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance

OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 3 2006
Stilianos Fountas
Abstract We use a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) model of inflation and output growth to examine the causality relationship among nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance measured by the inflation and output growth rates. The application of the constant conditional correlation GARCH(1,1) model leads to a number of interesting conclusions. First, inflation does cause negative welfare effects, both directly and indirectly, i.e. via the inflation uncertainty channel. Secondly, in some countries, more inflation uncertainty provides an incentive to Central Banks to surprise the public by raising inflation unexpectedly. Thirdly, in contrast to the assumptions of some macroeconomic models, business cycle variability and the rate of economic growth are related. More variability in the business cycle leads to more output growth. [source]

Measuring the spillover effects: Some Chinese evidence,

PAPERS IN REGIONAL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2000
Long Gen Ying
Chinese space economy; core-periphery analysis; local Moran; spillover effects Abstract. Based on recently developed methods of exploratory spatial data analysis, this article seeks to prove the desired spread effects in the Chinese space economy from a core-periphery perspective. Recently developed methods of exploratory spatial data analysis provide new insights on the spatial pattern of the interaction of Chinese provincial output growth rates over the 1978,1994 period. Findings indicate that the economic spillover effects are most evident at the first order of province contiguity from Guangdong, where the two coastal provinces of Hainan and Guangxi are identified with a significant spread pattern, while non-coastal provinces Hunan and Jiangxi are observed with a strong polarization pattern. A further analysis indicates that the state preferential policies favoring the coastal region are the fundamental force in determining the direction of spread-polarization processes in the Chinese space economy. This finding confirms Friedmann's hypothesis on spatial interaction, namely, that the spread process is a successful diffusion of the core's existing institutions into the periphery. [source]