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Oscillation Index (oscillation + index)
Kinds of Oscillation Index Selected AbstractsTime series analyses reveal transient relationships between abundance of larval anchovy and environmental variables in the coastal waters southwest of TaiwanFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2009CHIH-HAO HSIEH Abstract We investigated environmental effects on larval anchovy fluctuations (based on CPUE from 1980 to 2000) in the waters off southwestern Taiwan using advanced time series analyses, including the state-space approach to remove seasonality, wavelet analysis to investigate transient relationships, and stationary bootstrap to test correlation between time series. For large-scale environmental effects, we used the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to represent the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); for local hydrographic conditions, we used sea surface temperature (SST), river runoff, and mixing conditions. Whereas the anchovy catch consisted of a northern species (Engraulis japonicus) and two southern species (Encrasicholina heteroloba and Encrasicholina punctifer), the magnitude of the anchovy catch appeared to be mainly determined by the strength of Eng. japonicus (Japanese anchovy). The main factor that caused the interannual variation of anchovy CPUE might change through time. The CPUE showed a negative correlation with combination of water temperature and river runoff before 1987 and a positive correlation with river runoff after 1988. Whereas a significant negative correlation between CPUE and ENSOs existed, this correlation was driven completely by the low-frequency ENSO events and explained only 10% of the variance. Several previous studies on this population emphasized that the fluctuations of larval anchovy abundance were determined by local SST. Our analyses indicated that such a correlation was transient and simply reflected ENSO signals. Recent advances in physical oceanography around Taiwan showed that the ENSOs reduced the strength of the Asian monsoon and thus weakened the China Coastal Current toward Taiwan. The decline of larval anchovy during ENSO may be due to reduced China Coastal Current, which is important in facilitating the spawning migration of the Japanese anchovy. [source] Establishing climate,growth relationships for yelloweye rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus) in the northeast Pacific using a dendrochronological approachFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 5 2008BRYAN A. BLACK Abstract We applied dendrochronology (tree-ring) methods to develop multidecadal growth chronologies from the increment widths of yelloweye rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus) otoliths. Chronologies were developed for the central California coast, a site just north of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, and at Bowie Seamount west of the Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia. At each site, synchronous growth patterns were matched among otoliths via the process of cross-dating, ensuring that the correct calendar year was assigned to all increments. Each time series of growth-increment measurements was divided by the values predicted by a best-fit negative exponential function, thereby removing age-related trends. These detrended time series were averaged into a master chronology for each site, and chronologies were correlated with monthly averages of sea surface temperatures, upwelling, the Northern Oscillation Index, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The two northern growth chronologies positively correlated with indices of warm ocean conditions, especially from the prior summer through the spring of the current year. During the same period, the California chronology positively correlated with indices of cool ocean conditions, indicating an opposing productivity regime for yelloweye rockfish between the California Current and the Gulf of Alaska. Overall, this study demonstrates how tree-ring techniques can be applied to quickly develop annually resolved chronologies and establish climate,growth relationships across various temporal and spatial scales. [source] Environmental effects on recruitment and productivity of Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus with recommendations for managementFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2005AKIHIKO YATSU Abstract We compared a wide range of environmental data with measures of recruitment and stock production for Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus to examine factors potentially responsible for fishery regimes (periods of high or low recruitment and productivity). Environmental factors fall into two groups based on principal component analyses. The first principal component group was determined by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index and was dominated by variables associated with the Southern Oscillation Index and Kuroshio Sverdrup transport. The second was led by the Arctic Oscillation and dominated by variables associated with Kuroshio geostrophic transport. Instantaneous surplus production rates (ISPR) and log recruitment residuals (LNRR) changed within several years of environmental regime shifts and then stabilized due, we hypothesize, to rapid changes in carrying capacity and relaxation of density dependent effects. Like ISPR, LNRR appears more useful than fluctuation in commercial catch data for identifying the onset of fishery regime shifts. The extended Ricker models indicate spawning stock biomass and sea surface temperatures (SST) affect recruitment of sardine while spawning stock biomass, SST and sardine biomass affect recruitment of chub mackerel. Environmental conditions were favorable for sardine during 1969,87 and unfavorable during 1951,67 and after 1988. There were apparent shifts from favorable to unfavorable conditions for chub mackerel during 1976,77 and 1985,88, and from unfavorable to favorable during 1969,70 and 1988,92. Environmental effects on recruitment and surplus production are important but fishing effects are also influential. For example, chub mackerel may have shifted into a new favorable fishery regime in 1992 if fishing mortality had been lower. We suggest that managers consider to shift fishing effort in response to the changing stock productivity, and protect strong year classes by which we may detect new favorable regimes. [source] Synchronicity in southern hemisphere squid stocks and the influence of the Southern Oscillation and Trans Polar IndexFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2004C. M. Waluda Abstract Squid are short lived, with highly labile populations that respond rapidly to changes in environmental conditions. This makes them a good model for studying the response of recruitment processes to environmental signals. This study examines the influence of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Trans Polar Index (TPI) on the environment and abundance of six species of commercially important squid from the southern hemisphere, all linked to major current systems connected by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current: Dosidicus gigas (Southeast Pacific), Loligo vulgaris reynaudii (Southeast Atlantic), Nototodarus sloanii, N. gouldi (Southwest Pacific), Illex argentinus and L. gahi (Southwest Atlantic). All fisheries displayed a high level of inter-annual variability and a degree of synchronicity was seen to occur in the abundance of the three Pacific species. The SOI signal was reflected in the environment of each fishery, particularly in Pacific regions. Both indices are correlated with squid abundance, particularly during the early life history stages (SOI) and adult stages (TPI), suggesting some degree of latitudinal separation, with juveniles potentially influenced by environmental variability at lower latitudes and adults at higher latitudes. [source] Decadal-scale variability in the Kuroshio marine ecosystem in winterFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 4-5 2003Kaoru Nakata Abstract Interannual variation of winter copepod biomass during the last three decades of the twentieth century was examined in the Kuroshio, off central Japan in relation to climate regime shifts. The biomass levels of large copepods in the period before 1977 and in 1999 and 2000 were higher than those in the period between 1977 and 1998. The biomass of large copepods was positively related with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), in winter in the Northern Hemisphere, which also showed steplike shifts in 1976/77 and 1998/99. The biomass of large copepods was largely influenced by abundance of Calanus sinicus that has high rates of production compared with small copepods under food satiated conditions. Accordingly, the climatic regime shift accompanied by the climatic change in the tropical region seems to regulate interannual variation of winter biomass of large copepods in the Kuroshio through effects on food supply. There is less decadal variablity in the small copepod (SC) biomass than large copepod (LC) biomass, but more variablity in SC than in LC at periods 2,4 years. In contrast to the large copepods, the biomass of small copepods was not related to global climate indices but with the local climate factors such as SST in the Kuroshio and variability in the Kuroshio flow path. Causes for the differences in the biomass trends between large and small copepods are discussed. [source] Exploratory Analysis of Similarities in Solar Cycle Magnetic Phases with Southern Oscillation Index Fluctuations in Eastern AustraliaGEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, Issue 4 2008ROBERT G.V. BAKER Abstract There is growing interest in the role that the Sun's magnetic field has on weather and climatic parameters, particularly the ~11 year sunspot (Schwab) cycle, the ~22 yr magnetic field (Hale) cycle and the ~88 yr (Gleissberg) cycle. These cycles and the derivative harmonics are part of the peculiar periodic behaviour of the solar magnetic field. Using data from 1876 to the present, the exploratory analysis suggests that when the Sun's South Pole is positive in the Hale Cycle, the likelihood of strongly positive and negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values increase after certain phases in the cyclic ~22 yr solar magnetic field. The SOI is also shown to track the pairing of sunspot cycles in ~88 yr periods. This coupling of odd cycles, 23,15, 21,13 and 19,11, produces an apparently close charting in positive and negative SOI fluctuations for each grouping. This Gleissberg effect is also apparent for the southern hemisphere rainfall anomaly. Over the last decade, the SOI and rainfall fluctuations have been tracking similar values to that recorded in Cycle 15 (1914,1924). This discovery has important implications for future drought predictions in Australia and in countries in the northern and southern hemispheres which have been shown to be influenced by the sunspot cycle. Further, it provides a benchmark for long-term SOI behaviour. [source] Relative influence of fisheries and climate on the demography of four albatross speciesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2010VIRGINIE ROLLAND Abstract Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long-term data (1985,2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub-Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography. [source] El Niño Southern Oscillation link to the Blue Nile River Basin hydrologyHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 26 2009Wossenu Abtew Abstract The objective of this study is to evaluate the relationships of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and the Blue Nile River Basin hydrology using a new approach that tracks cumulative ENSO indices. The results of this study can be applied for water resources management decision making to mitigate drought or flood impacts with a lead time of at least few months. ENSO tracking and forecasting is relatively easier than predicting hydrology. ENSO teleconnections to the Blue Nile River Basin hydrology were evaluated using spatial average basin rainfall and Blue Nile flows at Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. The ENSO indices were sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in region Niño 3·4 and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The analysis indicates that the Upper Blue Nile Basin rainfall and flows are teleconnected to the ENSO indices. Based on event correspondence and correlation analysis, high rainfall and high flows are likely to occur during La Niña years and dry years are likely to occur during El Niño years at a confidence level of 90%. Extreme dry and wet years are very likely to correspond with ENSO events as given above. The great Ethiopian famine of 1888,1892 corresponds to one of the strongest El Niño years, 1888. The recent drought years in Ethiopia correspond to strong El Niño years and wet years correspond to La Niña years. In this paper, a new approach is proposed on how to classify the strength of ENSO events by tracking consecutive monthly events through a year. A cumulative SST index value of ,5 and cumulative SOI value of , ,7 indicate strong El Niño. A cumulative SST index value of ,,5 and cumulative SOI index of ,7 indicate strong La Niña. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Variability and trends in the directional wave climate of the Southern HemisphereINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2010Mark A. Hemer Abstract The effect of interannual climate variability and change on the historic, directional wave climate of the Southern Hemisphere is presented. Owing to a lack of in situ wave observations, wave climate in the Southern Hemisphere is determined from satellite altimetry and global ocean wave models. Altimeter data span the period 1985 to present, with the exception of a 2-year gap in 1989,1991. Interannual variability and trends in the significant wave height are determined from the satellite altimeter record (1991 to present), and the dominant modes of variability are identified using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Significant wave heights in the Southern Ocean are observed to show a strong positive correlation with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), particularly during Austral autumn and winter months. Correlation between altimeter derived significant wave heights and the Southern Oscillation Index is observed in the Pacific basin, which is consistent with several previous studies. Variability and trends of the directional wave climate are determined using the ERA-40 Waves Re-analysis for the period 1980,2001. Significant wave height, mean wave period and mean wave direction data are used to describe the climate of the wave energy flux vector. An EOF analysis of the wave energy flux vector is carried out to determine the dominant modes of variability of the directional seasonal wave energy flux climate. The dominant mode of variability during autumn and winter months is strongly correlated to the SAM. There is an anti-clockwise rotation of wave direction with the southward intensification of the Southern Ocean storm belt associated with the SAM. Clockwise rotation of flux vectors is observed in the Western Pacific Ocean during El-Nino events. Directional variability of the wave energy flux in the Western Pacific Ocean has previously been shown to be of importance to sand transport along the south-eastern Australian margin, and the New Zealand region. The directional variability of the wave energy flux of the Southern Ocean associated with the SAM is expected to be of importance to the wave-driven currents responsible for the transport of sand along coastal margins in the Southern Hemisphere, in particular those on the Southern and Western coastal margins of the Australian continent. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The use of SST and SOI anomalies as indicators of crop yield variabilityINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2009Maria I. Travasso Abstract Interannual climate variability accounts for most of the observed crop yield fluctuations in the main agricultural region of Argentina. Moreover, in this region climatic variations are related to sea surface temperatures (SST) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). In the present study, we aimed to obtain indicators of crop yield variability based on these drivers. For this purpose, monthly anomalies corresponding to SSTs from the Equatorial Pacific (SSTN3) and South Atlantic (SSTSA) Oceans and the SOI were related to maize, sunflower and soybean grain yield anomalies. Historical data (1923,2000 for maize, 1934,2000 for sunflower and 1969,2000 for soybean) were used to obtain grain yield anomalies at the county level after removing technology trends by smoothing techniques. By means of correlation analysis, we obtained the counties presenting significant association (p < 0.05) between monthly SST/SOI anomalies and yield anomalies, for the period 1950,1997. Those indicators showing spatial consistency were classified in percentiles, and the values corresponding to the upper and lower terciles showed to be useful to discriminate between positive and negative yield anomalies (high and low yields). In general, SOI for maize and SSTSA for soybean and sunflower were the best indicators of crop yield variability. SOI corresponding to September and May were useful in counties contributing to 71% of maize production. SSTa_SA (June) was the best for soybean in the main producing region, which includes 72% of the total production. SSTa_SA (March) could be useful for sunflower in the northern part of the region, which accounts for 27% of the regional production. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Predicting summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin with neural networksINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2008Heike Hartmann Abstract Summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin is predicted using neural network techniques. Input variables (predictors) for the neural network are the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the East Atlantic/Western Russia (EA/WR) pattern, the Scandinavia (SCA) pattern, the Polar/Eurasia (POL) pattern and several indices calculated from sea surface temperatures (SST), sea level pressures (SLP) and snow data from December to April for the period from 1993 to 2002. The output variable of the neural network is rainfall from May to September for the period from 1994 to 2002, which was previously classified into six different regions by means of a principal component analysis (PCA). Rainfall is predicted from May to September 2002. The winter SST and SLP indices are identified to be the most important predictors of summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin. The Tibetan Plateau snow depth, the SOI and the other teleconnection indices seem to be of minor importance for an accurate prediction. This may be the result of the length of the available time series, which does not allow a deeper analysis of the impact of multi-annual oscillations. The neural network algorithms proved to be capable of explaining most of the rainfall variability in the Yangtze River basin. For five out of six regions, our predictions explain at least 77% of the total variance of the measured rainfall. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Predictions of future climate change in the caribbean region using global general circulation modelsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2007Moises E. Angeles Abstract Since the 1800s the global average CO2 mixing ratio has increased and has been related to increases in surface air temperature (0.6 ± 0.2 °C) and variations in precipitation patterns among other weather and climatic variables. The Small Island Developing States (SIDS), according to the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are likely to be among the most seriously impacted regions on Earth by global climate changes. In this work, three climate change scenarios are investigated using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to study the impact of the global anthropogenic CO2 concentration increases on the Caribbean climate. A climatological analysis of the Caribbean seasonal climate variation was conducted employing the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the Xie,Arkin precipitation and the Reynolds,Smith Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observed data. The PCM is first evaluated to determine its ability to predict the present time Caribbean climatology. The PCM tends to under predict the SSTs, which along with the cold advection controls the rainfall variability. This seems to be a main source of bias considering the low model performance to predict rainfall activity over the Central and southern Caribbean. Future predictions indicate that feedback processes involving evolution of SST, cloud formation, and solar radiative interactions affect the rainfall annual variability simulated by PCM from 1996 to 2098. At the same time two large-scale indices, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are strongly related with this rainfall annual variability. A future climatology from 2041 to 2058 is selected to observe the future Caribbean condition simulated by the PCM. It shows, during this climatology range, a future warming of approximately 1 °C (SSTs) along with an increase in the rain production during the Caribbean wet seasons (early and late rainfall seasons). Although the vertical wind shear is strengthened, it typically remains lower than 8 m/s, which along with SST > 26.5 °C provides favorable conditions for possible future increases in tropical storm frequency. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] A mid-shelf, mean wave direction climatology for southeastern Australia, and its relationship to the El Niño,Southern Oscillation since 1878 A.D.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2005Ian D. Goodwin Abstract Coastal systems behave on timescales from days to centuries. Shelf and coastal wave climatological data from the Tasman Sea are only available for the past few decades. Hence, the records are too short to investigate inter- and multidecadal variability and their impact on coastal systems. A method is presented to hindcast monthly mid-shelf mean wave direction (MWD) for southeastern Australia, based on the monthly, trans-Tasman mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) difference between northern NSW (Yamba) and the north island of New Zealand (Auckland). The MSLP index is calibrated to instrumental (Waverider buoy) MWD data for the Sydney shelf and coast. Positive/negative trans-Tasman MSLP difference is significantly correlated to southerly/easterly Sydney MWD, and to long/short mean wave periods. The 124-year Sydney annual (MWD) time series displays multidecadal variability, and identifies a significant period of more southerly annual MWD during 1884 to 1914 than in the period since 1915. The Sydney MWD is significantly correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The correlation with the SOI is enhanced during periods when the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is in its negative state and warm SST anomalies occur in the southwest Pacific region. The Sydney MWD was found to be associated with Pacific basin-wide climate fluctuations associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Southerly/easterly Sydney MWD is correlated with low/high MSLP anomalies over New Zealand and the central Pacific Ocean. Southerly/easterly Sydney MWD is also correlated with cool/warm SST anomalies in the southwest Pacific, particularly in the eastern Coral Sea and Tasman Sea. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Classification of synchronous oceanic and atmospheric El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for palaeoclimate reconstructionINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2005Joëlle L. Gergis Abstract Since the mid-1970s, ENSO has changed in character to a predominance of El Niño conditions, the extreme phase of which appears coincidental with increases in global temperature records. Instrumental time series (<150 years) are too short to adequately address the significance of late twentieth-century ENSO variability, thus, multi-century palaeoclimate reconstructions derived from long proxy records are sought. Despite the global influence exerted by ENSO on society, limited consensus exists within the scientific community as to which index best defines the timing, duration and strength of events. Here we address issues associated with the complexity of ENSO characterisation by comparing the ,event capture' ability of two currently used indices of ENSO. It is suggested that the use of a sole ENSO index is undesirable as a given index is only indicative of one physical aspect of the phenomenon, and as such is unlikely to be representative of the wider interactions experienced in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. In an attempt to describe more of the nature and evolution of ENSO events, the Coupled ENSO Index (CEI) classification scheme was devised to identify synchronous oceanic (Niño 3.4 SST) and atmospheric (Southern Oscillation Index) anomalies associated with ENSO for the instrumental period (1871,2003). The CEI is of practical relevance to the ENSO community as it provides an amplitude preserving instrumental baseline for the calibration of proxy records to reconstruct both components of the ENSO system. Analysis of the nature of instrumental ENSO events from the CEI suggests that the frequency and intensity of post-1970 ENSO events (when 50% of all extreme events identified occur) appears the most anomalous in the context of at least the past century. It is hoped that the CEI will facilitate palaeo-ENSO research to systematically resolve the long-term context of past ENSO behaviour to assess whether the apparently anomalous nature of late twentieth-century variability is unprecedented within existing palaeoclimate archives. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Variability of total and solid precipitation in the Canadian Arctic from 1950 to 1995INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2002Rajmund Przybylak Abstract Trends in solid and total precipitation, as well as in the ratio of solid to total precipitation (hereinafter S/T ratio), in the Canadian Arctic in recent decades have been investigated. In addition, the influence of air temperature and circulation factors (atmospheric and oceanic) on the above-mentioned precipitation characteristics have been examined. Recently updated and adjusted data by the Canadian Climate Centre from 16 stations located in the Canadian Arctic and two stations from the sub-Arctic were used for the investigation. The southern boundary of the study area was taken after Atlas Arktiki (Tresjinkov, A. 1985. Glavnoye Upravlenye Geodeziy i Kartografiy: Moscow; 204 pp). The majority of the data cover the period from 1950 to 1995. A statistically significant increase in all kinds of areally averaged seasonal and annual precipitation for the Canadian Arctic over the period 1950,95 has been found. On the other hand, the S/T ratio did not change significantly, except for summer values, and its behaviour was also in accord with small variations noted in air temperature. An increase in air temperature in the Canadian Arctic most often led to a rise in all kinds of annual precipitation sums, but only when the warmest and coldest years were chosen based on individual stations. The pattern of the relationship is significantly more complicated, and can even be opposite to that presented above, when the sets of the warmest and coldest years are chosen based on the areally averaged annual temperature for the Canadian Arctic. Significantly more stable results of changes were found for the S/T ratio, which in warmer periods was usually lower. However, more detailed and reliable investigations of temperature,precipitation relationships conducted for individual stations showed that though the S/T ratio in warmer periods may well be lower, this only applies to the southern (warmer) part of the Canadian Arctic (<70 °N). During periods with high positive values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), a decrease in precipitation is observed in the south-eastern part of the Canadian Arctic, i.e. in the area where strong cooling was also observed. During El Niño events most of the Canadian Arctic had both greater precipitation and a higher S/T ratio than during La Niña events. The most unequivocal results of precipitation and S/T ratio changes were found for changes in the Arctic Ocean circulation regimes. In almost the whole study area, a lower precipitation and S/T ratio were noted during the anticyclonic circulation regime in the Arctic Ocean. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Wintertime temperature anomalies in Alaska correlated with ENSO and PDOINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2001John M. Papineau Abstract Wintertime (November,March) surface air temperatures at 14 stations throughout the state of Alaska are correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, for the years 1954,2000. On the seasonal and monthly timescales, the principal results are: (i) During El Niño winters, temperatures are near normal in western Alaska but significantly warmer than normal for the eastern two-thirds of the state. (ii) La Niña winters produce significant below normal temperatures statewide. (iii) Temperature patterns produced during El Niño, La Niña, and neutral winters are modified by the concurrent state of the North Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies, as indicated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index. On the sub-monthly timescale, temperatures across Alaska are to the first order correlated with the alternating zonal to meridional Pacific/North American pattern. Analysis of daily winter temperatures at Fairbanks indicates that cold anomalies are more frequent and are longer in duration than warm anomalies, primarily due to radiational cooling of the boundary layer and the subsequent formation of deep temperature inversions. The development of strong inversions over the interior of Alaska limits the response of temperatures to changes in the synoptic-scale flow pattern. Warm anomalies in contrast to cold anomalies, are primarily a function of warm air advection, therefore temperatures during warm anomalies fluctuate in phase with changes in the synoptic-scale flow. Ultimately, air temperatures across Alaska are a function of: synoptic-scale forcings, radiative cooling of the boundary layer as well as local and regional effects such as downslope and drainage winds. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Observed and SST-forced seasonal rainfall variability across tropical AmericaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2001Vincent Moron Abstract Three experiments starting from different initial conditions have been made with the ECHAM-4 atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) integrated at T30 resolution forced with the observed sea-surface temperature (SST) over the period 1960,1994. The tropical America modes of seasonal rainfall anomalies whose time variation is most accurately simulated by the GCM have been searched for using Singular Value Decomposition Analyses (SVDA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) between observed and model fields. The leading modes revealed by SVDA and CCA are highly similar, even though the ordering of the modes showed some fluctuation. A first skilful rainfall anomaly mode has weights of the same sign almost everywhere in tropical America, except along the western coast and the sub-tropical margins. This mode appears in all of the four seasons assessed. A second major skilful mode is usually a bipolar north,south (N,S) rainfall anomaly pattern (clear in December,March, DJFM; March,May, MAM; and June,September, JJAS). A large portion of the skill of the first rainfall anomaly mode (same sign anomalies across tropical America except small patches along the western coast) is through variance that is in common with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). In addition to forcing from the central/eastern tropical Pacific SST, there also appears a contribution from contrasting SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. This rainfall mode is usually a regional portion of a more large-scale mode encompassing at least the whole tropical zone (especially in DJFM, MAM and September,November, SON). Analysis of the relationship of this mode with GCM circulation features reveals that a rainfall deficit (respectively excedent) over the main rainbelt of the tropical America region is associated with strengthening (respectively weakening) of the sub-tropical westerly jet streams, a global warming (respectively cooling) of the tropical atmosphere, an anomalous divergence (respectively convergence) in the lower levels and an anomalous convergence (respectively divergence) in the upper levels over tropical America and in the region of the Atlantic Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Such global features are not so apparent for the dominant mode of JJAS, even though the correlations with El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators (as SOI or NINO3 SST index) are as high as for the other seasons. The bipolar N,S rainfall anomaly mode in tropical America is mostly related to anomalous N,S gradient of SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. The atmospheric circulation anomalies emphasize changes in 850 hPa meridional winds in the tropical Atlantic. However, there is also interannual variance of this rainfall mode in both the model and observations that is unexplained by tropical Atlantic SSTs, but which is explained by central/eastern tropical Pacific SSTs and, potentially, SSTs from other tropical and extratropical areas. This is especially true in MAM. Some differences in the details of the model and observed teleconnection patterns are noted. Such differences can be used to statistically adjust the model simulations using the CCA or SVDA modes as basis patterns. Both statistical approaches have been applied and the results are consistent between the two. The increase of skill is stronger when temporal correlation (the pattern correlation) between the model and observed pattern is high (low) as for JJAS. The skill is moderate to high around the whole Amazon basin, but remains relatively low inside the Amazon basin, though reliability of the observations themselves may influence this result. Averaged over all the seasons, about 15,35% (35,55%) of the interannual grid-box (regional) seasonal rainfall variance is skilfully simulated from the observed SST forcing. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Seasonal variability in velocity and ablation of Te Moeka o Tuawe/Fox Glacier, south Westland, New ZealandNEW ZEALAND GEOGRAPHER, Issue 1 2008Heather L. Purdie Abstract:, Seasonal variations in ablation and surface velocity were investigated on the lower Fox Glacier. Variations occur between summer and winter ablation, with surface velocity also showing marked seasonality. Recent advance has resulted in the glacier gaining around 200 m length since late 2004. Longer term, Fox Glacier appears linked to the Southern Oscillation Index, with positive glacier mass balances associated with negative Southern Oscillation Index (El Niño). An estimated glacier response time of approximately 9,14 years suggests the current terminus advance was linked to mass gains in the mid-1990s. Recent collapses at the terminal face continue to prove a hazard at this busy tourist destination. [source] Population dynamics of rice rats (a Hantavirus reservoir) in southern Chile: feedback structure and non-linear effects of climatic oscillationsOIKOS, Issue 1 2003Roberto Murúa We studied a fluctuating population of the long-tail rice rat (Oligoryzomys longicaudatus), the main Hantavirus vector in southern Chile, and spanning 19 years of monitoring. We determined that a first-order feedback structure and non-linear effects of Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAOI) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) explain 96% of the variation in annual per capita population growth rates. One important result of this study is that first-order feedback structure captures the essential features of population dynamics of long-tailed rice rats. This regulatory structure suggests that rice rats are limited by food, space or predators and regulated by intra-specific competition. The first-order dynamics observed in long-tailed rice rats strongly suggests that Hantavirus have no harmful effects on survival or reproductive processes. Besides the non-linear climatic signature in population dynamics, the periodic event of bamboo-flowering and mast seeding strongly influence rice rats population growth rates. Because of this, bamboo flowering may be used as a signal for forecasting long-tail rice rats outbreaks and for implementing information and health policies to avoid human-rodent contacts in specific areas. The observed effects of the two large-scale climatic indexes that influence climatic variability along southern Pacific Ocean, the AAOI and the SOI, emphasizes the role of considering non-linear feedback structures and climatic forces for understanding small rodent population dynamics. Because long-tailed rice rats represent the major Hantavirus reservoir in southern Chile and Argentina, we need to gain an in-depth understanding of the structure and functioning of these small rodent populations in face of the potential consequences of global change and climatic fluctuations. [source] Properties of the arctic tropopauseTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 565 2000E. J. Highwood Abstract A climatology of Arctic tropopause properties is derived using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-analyses, and is shown to be consistent with that from the Historical Arctic Radiosonde Archive. It is demonstrated that the thermal tropopause is generally easy to define from the temperature profile, even in the polar night, in contrast with the situation in Antarctic winter. In winter, the tropopause tends to have higher pressure and temperature in the western hemisphere and lower values in the eastern hemisphere. In summer the situation is more zonally symmetric with the higher pressure and temperature tropopause region near the pole. Strong annual cycles are seen in both temperature and pressure. these cycles being out of phase temporally. It is hypothesized that the tropopause temperature is largely determined by the approximately isothermal lower-stratospheric temperature, while the pressure is more strongly influenced by changes in the tropospheric lapse rate due to dynamical mechanisms. The multi-decade radiosonde dataset (1965,1990) shows some evidence of a long-term trend in tropopause properties. The wintertime tropopause pressure has decreased by approximately 14 mb per decade, while that in other seasons has decreased by around 5 mb per decade. The tropopause temperature only shows a significant trend during winter, having decreased by 1.6 K per decade since 1965. These changes are discussed in relation to changes in ozone and greenhouse gases, and the strength of the stratospheric vortex. In particular, the winter tropopause properties appear to be strongly correlated with the Arctic Oscillation Index. [source] Climate-driven decrease in erosion in extant Mediterranean badlandsEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 11 2010Michèle L. Clarke Abstract Badland areas provide some of the highest erosion rates globally. Most studies of erosion have insufficient lengths of record to interrogate the impacts of decadal-scale changes in precipitation on rates of badland erosion in regions such as the Mediterranean, which are known to be sensitive to land degradation and desertification. Erosion measurements, derived from field monitoring using erosion pins, in southern Italy during the period 1974,2004 are used to explore the impacts of changing precipitation patterns on badland erosion. Erosion on badland inter-rill areas is strongly correlated with cumulative rainfall over each monitoring period. Annual precipitation has a substantial dynamic range, but both annual and winter (December, January, February) rainfall amounts in southern Italy show a steady decrease over the period 1970,2000. The persistence of positive values of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index in the period 1980,2000 is correlated with a reduction in the winter rainfall amounts. Future climate scenarios show a reduction in annual rainfall across the western and central Mediterranean which is likely to result in a further reduction in erosion rates in existing badlands. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Examining the total arrival distribution of migratory birdsGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2005T. H. Sparks Abstract This paper reports on the total distribution of spring migration timing of willow warbler, chiffchaff and pied flycatcher at locations in the UK, Germany, Russia and Finland. This is the first time that high-quality data based on known-effort monitoring has been examined on a continental scale. First arrival dates, commonly reported in the literature, were positively correlated with mean arrival dates although they would not make good predictors of the latter. At all locations, at least one aspect of the arrival distribution of each species had got significantly earlier in recent years. The trend towards earliness was associated with warmer local temperatures and more positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation index. In years that were early, the arrival distribution became more elongated and skewed. Researchers should now investigate the consequences of earlier arrival on current and future bird populations. [source] Wintertime temperature anomalies in Alaska correlated with ENSO and PDOINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2001John M. Papineau Abstract Wintertime (November,March) surface air temperatures at 14 stations throughout the state of Alaska are correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, for the years 1954,2000. On the seasonal and monthly timescales, the principal results are: (i) During El Niño winters, temperatures are near normal in western Alaska but significantly warmer than normal for the eastern two-thirds of the state. (ii) La Niña winters produce significant below normal temperatures statewide. (iii) Temperature patterns produced during El Niño, La Niña, and neutral winters are modified by the concurrent state of the North Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies, as indicated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index. On the sub-monthly timescale, temperatures across Alaska are to the first order correlated with the alternating zonal to meridional Pacific/North American pattern. Analysis of daily winter temperatures at Fairbanks indicates that cold anomalies are more frequent and are longer in duration than warm anomalies, primarily due to radiational cooling of the boundary layer and the subsequent formation of deep temperature inversions. The development of strong inversions over the interior of Alaska limits the response of temperatures to changes in the synoptic-scale flow pattern. Warm anomalies in contrast to cold anomalies, are primarily a function of warm air advection, therefore temperatures during warm anomalies fluctuate in phase with changes in the synoptic-scale flow. Ultimately, air temperatures across Alaska are a function of: synoptic-scale forcings, radiative cooling of the boundary layer as well as local and regional effects such as downslope and drainage winds. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Isotopic climate record in a Holocene stalagmite from Ursilor Cave (Romania)JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE, Issue 4 2002Bogdan Petroniu Onac Abstract The PU-2 stalagmite from Ursilor Cave provides the first dated Romanian isotope record for the Holocene. The overall growth rate of the speleothem was 3.5 cm kyr,1, corresponding to a temporal resolution of 142 y between each isotope analysis. The ,Hendy' tests indicate that isotopic equilibrium conditions occurred during the formation of PU-2, and hence that it is suitable for palaeoclimatic studies. The relationship between ,18O and temperature was found to be positive. This can be interpreted either as rain-out with distance from the west-northwest ocean source of evaporation or shifts in air mass source with changing North Atlantic Oscillation indices. Applying five U,Th thermal ionisation mass spectrometric (TIMS) dates to a 17.5 cm isotope profile (,18O and ,13C) along the stalagmite growth axis enabled a tentative interpretation of the palaeoclimate signal over the past 7.1 kyr. Spikes of depleted isotopic ,18O values are centred near ca. 7, ca. 5.2 and ca. 4 ka, reflecting cool conditions. The record shows two warm intervals between ca. 3.8 and ca. 3.2 ka (the maximum warmth) and from ca. 2 to ca. 1.4 ka, when the ,18O values were less negative than present. The ,Holocene Climate Optimum' spanning the time interval from ca. 6.8 to ca. 4.4 ka is not well expressed in the PU-2 stalagmite. Individual spikes of lighter ,13C are interpreted as indicative of periods of heavy rainfall, at ca. 7, ca. 5.5, and ca. 3.5 ka. The overall trend to lighter ,13C in the PU-2 stalagmite may reflect a gradual decrease in water,rock interaction. The results demonstrate that the effect of North Atlantic oceanic changes extended to the investigated area. Nevertheless, some differences in temporal correlation and intensity of stable isotopic response to these climatic events have been found, but the exact nature of these differences and the underlying mechanism is yet to be determined. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, recruitment in the Bering Sea and north-east Pacific Ocean, II: relationships to environmental variables and implications for forecastingFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2000Erik H. Williams Previous studies have shown that Pacific herring populations in the Bering Sea and north-east Pacific Ocean can be grouped based on similar recruitment time series. The scale of these groups suggests large-scale influence on recruitment fluctuations from the environment. Recruitment time series from 14 populations were analysed to determine links to various environmental variables and to develop recruitment forecasting models using a Ricker-type environmentally dependent spawner,recruit model. The environmental variables used for this investigation included monthly time series of the following: southern oscillation index, North Pacific pressure index, sea surface temperatures, air temperatures, coastal upwelling indices, Bering Sea wind, Bering Sea ice cover, and Bering Sea bottom temperatures. Exploratory correlation analysis was used for focusing the time period examined for each environmental variable. Candidate models for forecasting herring recruitment were selected by the ordinary and recent cross-validation prediction errors. Results indicated that forecasting models using air and sea surface temperature data lagged to the year of spawning generally produced the best forecasting models. Multiple environmental variables showed marked improvements in prediction over single-environmental-variable models. [source] Effects of decadal climate change on zooplankton over the last 50 years in the western subarctic North PacificGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2006SANAE CHIBA Abstract Decadal- to multi-decadal variations have been reported in many regional ecosystems in the North Pacific, resulting in an increasing demand to elucidate the link between long-term climatic forcing and marine ecosystems. We detected phenological and quantitative changes in the copepod community in response to the decadal climatic variation in the western subarctic North Pacific by analyzing the extensive zooplankton collection taken since the 1950s, the Odate Collection. Copepod species were classified into five seasonal groups depending on the timing of the annual peak in abundance. The abundance of the spring community gradually increased for the period 1960,2002. The spring,summer community also showed an increasing trend in May, but a decadal oscillation pattern of quasi-30-year cycles in July. Phenological changes coincided with the climate regime shift in the mid-1970s, indicated by the Pacific decadal oscillation index (PDO). After the regime shift, the timing of the peak abundance was delayed one month, from March,April to April,May, in the spring community, whereas it peaked earlier, from June,July to May,June, in the spring,summer community, resulting in an overlap of the high productivity period for the two communities in May. Wintertime cooling, followed by rapid summertime warming, was considered to be responsible for delayed initiation and early termination of the productive season after the mid-1970s. Another phenological shift, quite different from the previous decade, was observed in the mid-1990s, when warm winters followed by cool summers lengthened the productive season. The results suggest that climatic forcing with different decadal cycles may operate independently during winter,spring and spring,summer to create seasonal and interannual variations in hydrographic conditions; thus, combinations of these seasonal processes may determine the annual biological productivity. [source] Long-term trend analysis for precipitation in Asian Pacific FRIEND river basinsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 18 2005Z. X. Xu Abstract In order to analyse the long-term trend of precipitation in the Asian Pacific FRIEND region, records from 30 river basins to represent the large range of climatic and hydrological characteristics in the study area are selected. The long-term trend in precipitation time series and its association with the southern oscillation index (SOI) series are investigated. Application of the nonparametric Mann,Kendall test for 30 precipitation time series has shown that only four of these 30 time series have a long-term trend at the 5% level of significance. Nevertheless, most of the records tend to decrease over the last several decades. The dataset is further divided geographically into northern, middle, and southern zones, with 20°N and 20°S latitude as the dividing lines. The middle zone has the greatest variation and the southern zone the least variation over the past century. Also, the southern zone has greater variation during the past 30 years. The association between precipitation and SOI is investigated by dividing the precipitation records of each station into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test showed that differences in precipitation for the three classes were most marked in the southern zone of the study area. The frequencies of below- and above-average precipitation for El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods are estimated for the 30 precipitation time series as well. The results show that the frequencies of precipitation under each set of conditions, with lower precipitation generally associated with El Niño periods in the southern zone. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Effects of the El Niño,southern oscillation on temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent and resulting streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande river basinHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 6 2004Songweon Lee Abstract Snowmelt runoff dominates streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande (URG) basin of New Mexico and Colorado. Annual variations in streamflow timing and volume at most stations in the region are strongly influenced by the El Niño,southern oscillation (ENSO) through its modulation of the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation, and hence on snow accumulation and melting. After removing long-term trends over the study period (water years 1952,99), the dependence of monthly temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE) at snowcourse stations, and streamflow throughout the URG on ENSO was investigated using composite analyses of the detrended residuals and through dependence of the residuals on the Climate Prediction Center southern oscillation index during the preceding summer and fall. The climate of La Niña years was found to differ significantly from either El Niño or neutral years. Moreover, significant climatological ENSO-related effects are confined to certain months, predominantly at the beginning and end of the winter season. In particular, March of La Niña years is significantly warmer and drier than during either El Niño or neutral years, and November of El Niño years is significantly colder and wetter. Differences in temperature and precipitation lead to significant differences in SWE and streamflow in the URG between the three ENSO phases. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Southern hemisphere cyclones and anticyclones: recent trends and links with decadal variability in the Pacific OceanINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2007Dr Alexandre Bernardes Pezza Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the association between the extratropical Southern Hemisphere and the decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean (PO). We discuss a pattern of coherent large-scale anomalies and trends in cyclone and anticyclone behaviour in light of the climate variability in the PO over the ERA40 reanalysis period (1957,2002). The two representative PO indices are the Pacific Decadal and Interdecadal Oscillations (PDO and IPO), and here the PDO is chosen owing to it being less associated with the southern oscillation index (SOI). Composites of the indicators of the density and intensity of cyclones/anticyclones given by an automatic tracking scheme were calculated for the years when the PDOI was more than one standard deviation above or below its mean. Although the ERA40 is not free from noise and assimilation changes, the results show a large-scale feature, which seems to be robust and agrees with earlier studies using different data sets. The sea-level pressure shows a strong annular structure related to the PDO, which is not seen for the SOI, with lower pressure around Antarctica during the positive phase and vice versa. More intense (and fewer) cyclones and anticyclones were observed during the positive PDO. This is less consistent for the SOI, particularly during the summer when a different PDO/SOI pattern arises at high latitudes. The trends project a pattern coincident with the positive PDO phase and seem to be linked with the main climate shift in the late seventies. Trends observed over the Tasman Sea are consistent with declining winter rainfall over southeastern Australia. Most patterns are statistically significant and seem robust, but random changes in ENSO may play a part, to a certain degree, in modulating the results, and a physical mechanism of causality has not been demonstrated. Although global warming and related changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) may also help explain the observed behaviour, the large-scale response presented here provides a new insight and would be of considerable interest for further modelling studies. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Zonal circulations over the Indian and Pacific Oceans and the level of lakes Victoria and TanganyikaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2004Laurent Bergonzini Abstract Level records of two East African Great Lakes, Lake Victoria and Lake Tanganyika, which are considered as hydro-climatic proxies, are analysed. Comparisons between the two lake signals show synchronisms, which can only be accounted for by large-scale mechanisms. Lake-level variations associated with the short rains season (October,January) appear to have a prominent effect on the annual lake levels. The relations between lake-level variations and atmospheric circulation indexes are then investigated. Over the period 1946,2000, four indexes are selected to characterize the October,December zonal circulation over the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Over the Indian Ocean two surface zonal wind indexes (ZWIs) are used. For the Pacific, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and the Niño3 index are held to account for the El Niño,southern oscillation (ENSO). It is shown that significant overall negative correlations of level fluctuations are preferentially obtained with Indian Ocean circulation indexes. Although ZWI is highly correlated with the ENSO indexes, the latter display weaker relations with East African lake levels. It is shown that, for the 1946,2000 period, the October,December zonal circulation cell over the Indian Ocean plays a key role in the equatorial lake-level anomalies, thus demonstrating their influence on the hydro-climatic interannual variability of a large region. However, lake-level variation is a function not only of regional hydro-climatic conditions, but also of the initial (October) absolute lake level. Higher correlations are evident in a multiple correlation approach taking into account the initial lake level status in addition to the ZWI and ENSO indexes. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | ||||||||||||||||