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Oscillations
Kinds of Oscillations Terms modified by Oscillations Selected AbstractsCLIMATIC VARIABILITY ALONG A NORTH,SOUTH TRANSECT OF FINLAND OVER THE LAST 500 YEARS: SIGNATURE OF SOLAR INFLUENCE OR INTERNAL CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS?GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2008MAXIM G. OGURTSOV ABSTRACT. Statistical analysis of a multi-centennial dendrochronological proxy dataset of regional climate, constructed across the latitudinal gradient of 1000 km, was performed. It was shown that centennial (c. 100 year), tri-decadal (27-32 year), bi-decadal (17-23 year) and decadal (9-13 year) periodicities governed the climate variability in Finland over the last five centuries. Despite the fact that many of the climatic periodicities bore great resemblance to periodicities of solar cycles, little evidence of actual solar influence on Finnish climate was found when the climate proxy records were subjected to linear correlation analysis with sunspot numbers. Highly non-linear response of Northern Fennoscandian climate to solar forcing might be a cause of this result, as well as influence of terrestrial climatic processes (e.g. effect of other forcing factors and internal dynamics of regional climate). Our results show that the presence of internal climate variability at time-scales of solar activity might distort the solar signature in climatic data and complicate its detection. [source] CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS AS RECORDED IN SVALBARD ICE CORE ,18O RECORDS BETWEEN AD 1200 AND 1997GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 1 2005ELISABETH ISAKSSON ABSTRACT. We apply two different time series analytical tools to ,18O records from two Svalbard ice cores. One ice core is from Lomonosovfonna at 1250 ma.s.l. and the other from Austfonna at 750 m a.s.l. These cores are estimated to cover at least the past 800 years and have been dated using a combination of known reference horizons and glacial modelling. Wavelet analysis reveals low frequency oscillations on the 60,120,year scale on the lower elevation site Austfonna while the higher altitude site on Lomonosovfonna does not reveal such variability throughout the record. The second method, Significant Zero Crossing of Derivates (SiZer) does not resolve the low-frequency periodicity seen in the wavelet analysis. The low-frequency variability resolved by the wavelet analysis is similar to what has been found in various climate records including instrumental temperatures and tree-rings, and has been proposed as the most important oscillation for the observed trends in Arctic air temperatures. [source] Interspecific Effects of Artifically Propagated Fish: an Additional Conservation Risk for SalmonCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2002Phillip S. Levin We tested the hypothesis that hatchery-reared steelhead salmon ( Oncorhynchus mykiss) released into the Snake River Basin negatively affect the survival of wild Snake River steelhead and chinook ( O. tshawytscha) salmon. Because climatic conditions can influence salmon survival, we included an index of the El Niño,Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) as a covariate in our analyses. Based on time series of hatchery releases and rates of smolt-to-adult survival, we demonstrate that the survival of wild chinook salmon is negatively associated with hatchery releases of steelhead. The state of the ( ENSO) did not affect the strength of this relationship. We observed no relationship between survival of wild steelhead and steelhead hatchery releases. Our results suggest that industrial-scale production of hatchery fish may hinder the recovery of some threatened salmonids and that the potential interspecific impact of hatcheries must be considered as agencies begin the process of hatchery reform. Resumen: Por más de 120 años, las granjas han liberado números enormes de salmones del Pacífico para compensar las numerosas agresiones humanos a sus poblaciones, sin embargo, los impactos ecológicos de este esfuerzo masivo son poco entendidos. Evaluamos la hipótesis de que la trucha cabeza de acero ( Oncorhynchus mykiss) criada en granjas y liberada en la cuenca del Río Snake afecta negativamente la supervivencia de truchas cabeza de acero y salmones chinook ( O. tshawytscha) silvestres. Puesto que las condiciones climáticas pueden influir sobre la supervivencia del salmón, incluimos un índice de la Oscilación del Niño del Sur como covariable del análisis. En base a series de tiempo de las liberaciones de las granjas y las tasas de supervivencia hasta adulto de peces migrantes al mar, demostramos que la supervivencia del salmón chinook silvestre está negativamente correlacionada con las liberaciones de truchas cabeza de acero de las granjas. El estado de la Oscilación del Niño del Sur no afectó el grado de correlación. No observamos relación alguna entre la supervivencia de las truchas silvestres y las liberaciones de las granjas. Nuestros resultados sugieren que la producción a escala industrial de peces de granja puede obstaculizar la recuperación de algunos salmónidos amenazados y que el impacto interespecífico potencial de las granjas debería ser considerado en cuanto las agencias inicien el proceso de reforma de las granjas. [source] Climatic influence on the inter-annual variability of late-Holocene minerogenic sediment supply in a boreal forest catchmentEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 4 2010Gunilla Petterson Abstract Processes controlling sediment yield vary over a range of timescales, although most process-based observations are extremely short. Lake sediments, however, can be used to extend the observational timescale and are particularly useful when annually laminated (varved) sediment is present. The sediment record at Kassjön (N. Sweden) consists of ,6400 varves, each 0·5,1 mm thick. Image analysis was used to determine grey-scale variation and varve thickness from which annual minerogenic accumulation rate (MinAR) (mg cm,2 year,1) was inferred for the period 4486 BC , AD 1900. MinAR varies on annual to centennial scales and mainly reflects channel bank erosion by the inflow streams. The mineral input reflects the intensity of the spring run-off, which is dependent on the amount of snow accumulated during the winter, and hence MinAR is a long-term record of variability in past winter climate; other factors will be a variable response to catchment uplift, vegetation succession and pedogenesis. A major shift from low to high MinAR occurred ,250 BC, and peaks occurred around AD 250, 600, 1000, 1350 and 1650. Wavelet power spectrum analysis (confirmed by Fourier analyses) indicated significantly different periodicities throughout the period 4000 BC , AD 1700, including 275 years for the period 4000 BC , 2900 BC, 567 years for the period 2901 BC , 1201 BC, and 350 and 725 years for the period 1200 BC , AD 1700. The long-term, centennial scale variability (,350 years) may reflect solar forcing (cf the 385-year peak in tree-ring calibrated 14C activity) but interestingly, there is no obvious link to high frequency forcing, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. The high resolution component of the record highlights the relevance of varved lake sediment records for understanding erosion dynamics in undisturbed forested catchments and their link to long-term climate dynamics and future climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on growth and phenology of stream insectsECOGRAPHY, Issue 6 2004Robert A. Briers Climatic variation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences terrestrial and marine ecosystems, but its effects on river and stream ecosystems are less well known. The influence of the NAO on the growth of stream insects was examined using long-term empirical data on the sizes of mayfly and stonefly nymphs and on water temperature data. Models of egg development and nymphal growth in relation to temperature were used to predict the effect of the NAO on phenology. The study was based in two upland streams in mid-Wales UK that varied in the extent of plantation forestry in their catchments. Winter stream temperatures at both sites were positively related to the winter NAO index, being warmer in positive phases and colder in negative phases. The observed mean size and the simulated developmental period of mayfly nymphs were significantly related to the winter NAO index, with nymphs growing faster in positive phases of the NAO, but the growth of stonefly nymphs was not related to the NAO. This may have been due to the semivoltine stonefly lifecycle, but stonefly nymph growth is also generally less dependent on temperature. There were significant differences in growth rates of both species between streams, with nymphs growing more slowly in the forested stream that was consistently cooler than the open stream. Predicted emergence dates for adult mayflies varied by nearly two months between years, depending on the phase of the NAO. Variation in growth and phenology of stream insects associated with the NAO may influence temporal fluctuations in the composition and dynamics of stream communities. [source] Atlantic climatic factors control decadal dynamics of a Baltic Sea copepod Temora longicornisECOGRAPHY, Issue 5 2003Jari Hänninen We discovered, using transfer functions, that climatic changes in the Atlantic control the abundance of Temora longicornis, a dominant pelagic copepod of the Baltic Sea. The seawater salinity was increasing and copepod numbers were high from 1960s up to 1970s. Then the freshwater runoff started to increase, which resulted in decreasing salinities and abundance of the copepod. At the end of 1990s, runoffs remained at a high level, and the decrease of surface salinities and Temora leveled off. Due to time lags between variables studied, we also make predictions of changes expectable in early 2000s. The total freshwater runoff to the Baltic Sea followed the North Atlantic Oscillation with an immediate lag. Salinity followed the runoff non-linearly with a lag of 4,9 months. Temora longicornis followed the salinity with a lag of 1,3 months. Predicted abundance of T. longicornis will remain low implicating poor feeding conditions for planktivores. Our study points out the importance of physical factors in control of pelagic environments compared to ecological interactions, such as top-down and bottom-up. [source] Temporal dynamics within a contemporary latitudinal diversity gradientECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 9 2008Jonathan A. D. Fisher Abstract Poleward declines in species diversity [latitudinal diversity gradients (LDG)] remain among the oldest and most widespread of macroecological patterns. However, their contemporary dynamics remain largely unexplored even though changing ecological conditions, including global change, may modify LDG and their respective ecosystems. Here, we examine temporal variation within a temperate Northwest Atlantic LDG using 31 years of annual fisheries-independent surveys and explore its dynamics in relation to a dominant climate signal [the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)] that varies interannually and alters the latitudinal gradient of Northwest Atlantic continental shelf bottom water temperatures. We found that the slopes of the annual LDG vary dramatically due to changes in geographic distributions of 100+ species, variations that are concealed within the cumulative, static LDG. These changes are strongly associated with changes in NAO sign and strength. This is the first illustration of temporal dynamics in a contemporary LDG and the first demonstration of the speed at which local environmental variations can alter an LDG. Our findings underscore the need to investigate factors that modify LDG separately from those that contribute to their origins. [source] Dynamics of the SAR11 bacterioplankton lineage in relation to environmental conditions in the oligotrophic North Pacific subtropical gyreENVIRONMENTAL MICROBIOLOGY, Issue 9 2009Alexander Eiler Summary A quantitative PCR assay for the SAR11 clade of marine Alphaproteobacteria was applied to nucleic acids extracted from monthly depth profiles sampled over a 3-year period (2004,2007) at the open-ocean Station ALOHA (A Long-term Oligotrophic Habitat Assessment; 22°45,N, 158°00,W) in the oligotrophic North Pacific Ocean. This analysis revealed a high contribution (averaging 36% of 16S rRNA gene copies) of SAR11 to the total detected 16S rRNA gene copies over depths ranging from the surface layer to 4000 m, and revealed consistent spatial and temporal variation in the relative abundance of SAR11 16S rRNA gene copies. On average, a higher proportion of SAR11 rRNA gene copies were detected in the photic zone (< 175 m depth; mean = 38%) compared with aphotic (> 175 m depth; mean = 30%), and in the winter months compared with the summer (mean = 44% versus 33%, integrated over 175 m depth). Partial least square to latent structure projections identified environmental variables that correlate with variation in the absolute abundance of SAR11, and provided tools for developing a predictive model to explain time and depth-dependent variations in SAR11. Moreover, this information was used to hindcast temporal dynamics of the SAR11 clade between 1997 and 2006 using the existing HOT data set, which suggested that interannual variations in upper ocean SAR11 abundances were related to ocean-climate variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. [source] Oceanic influence on the precipitation of the south-east of VenezuelaENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 3 2002Lelys Guenni Abstract The Caroní catchment located in the south-east of Venezuela accounts for 70 per cent of the total hydropower energy of the country. On a year to year basis, it has been shown that low frequency large scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena are highly coupled to the hydroclimatology of the region, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) being a major forcing mechanism of climatic and hydrological anomalies. Regional differences in amplitude and timing are due to complex orographic interactions, land surface-atmosphere feedback mechanisms and the evolution of dominant synoptic meteorological conditions. A detailed analysis of the relationship between rainfall and several large scale ocean-atmospheric variables was carried out to determine the potential use of large scale climatic information as predictors of the rainfall anomalies over the region. The problem was tackled in two ways: (a) first a seasonal dynamic rainfall model was fitted to monthly rainfall for different locations. In this case rainfall is assumed as a normal variate w which has been transformed to account for its departure from normality and truncated to account for the positive probability mass of zero values, which corresponds to negative values of the normal variable. The time series of the model parameters and the macroclimatic variables are inspected for their potential relationship with local rainfall via the stochastic model. (b) Second, dynamic linear regression models between the macroclimatic variables as predictors and the rainfall anomalies as predictant were fitted to evaluate and quantify the significance of these dependencies. Consistent patterns are observed with the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific ocean temperature anomalies, in which a significant negative relationship has been present since 1976, indicating an overall decrease (increase) in rainfall when the Pacific and the Tropical Atlantic are warmer (colder) than normal. In all cases the results suggest that the relationships between rainfall anomalies and the macroclimatic variables are not constant with time. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] El Niño, climate change, and Southern African climateENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 4 2001Simon J. Mason Abstract The El Niño phenomenon involves a large-scale warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. Recent developments in the El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have raised concerns about climate change. In this review paper, these recent developments are critically assessed and forecasts of possible future changes are reviewed. Since the late-1970s, El Niño episodes have been unusually recurrent, while the frequency of strong La Niña events has been low. Prolonged/recurrent warm event conditions of the first half of the 1990s were the result of the persistence of an anomalously warm pool near the date line, which, in turn, may be part of an abrupt warming trend in tropical sea-surface temperatures that occurred in the late-1970s. The abrupt warming of tropical sea-surface temperatures has been attributed to the enhanced-greenhouse effect, but may be indicative of inter-decadal variability: earlier changes in the frequency of ENSO events and earlier persistent El Niño and La Niña sequences have occurred. Most forecasts of ENSO variability in a doubled-CO2 climate suggest that the recent changes in the tropical Pacific are anomalous. Of potential concern, however, is a possible reduction in the predictability of ENSO events given a warmer background climate. El Niño events usually are associated with below-normal rainfall over much of southern Africa. Mechanisms for this influence on southern African climate are discussed, and the implications of possible changes in ENSO variability on the climate of the region are assessed. Recent observed changes in southern African climate and their possible relationships with trends in ENSO variability are investigated. The El Niño influence on rainfall over southern Africa occurs largely because of a weakening of tropical convection over the subcontinent. A warming of the Indian Ocean during El Niño events appears to be important in providing a teleconnection from the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The abrupt warming of the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans in the late-1970s is probably partly responsible for increasing air temperatures over southern Africa, and may have contributed to a prolongation of predominantly dry conditions. A return to a wet phase appears to have occurred, despite the persistence of anomalously high sea-surface temperatures associated with the late-1970s warming, and a record-breaking El Niño in 1997/98. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] CLIMATIC AND TEMPORAL EFFECTS ON THE EXPRESSION OF SECONDARY SEXUAL CHARACTERS: GENETIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTSEVOLUTION, Issue 3 2004Dany Garant Abstract Despite great interest in sexual selection, relatively little is known in detail about the genetic and environmental determinants of secondary sexual characters in natural populations. Such information is important for determining the way in which populations may respond to sexual selection. We report analyses of genetic and large-scale environmental components of phenotypic variation of two secondary sexual plumage characters (forehead and wing patch size) in the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis over a 22-year period. We found significant heritability for both characters but little genetic covariance between the two. We found a positive association between forehead patch size and a large-scale climatic index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, but not for wing patch. This pattern was observed in both cross-sectional and longitudinal data suggesting that the population response to NAO index can be explained as the result of phenotypic plasticity. Heritability of forehead patch size for old males, calculated under favorable conditions (NAO index median), was greater than that under unfavorable conditions (NAO index < median). These changes occurred because there were opposing changes in additive genetic variance (VA) and residual variance (VR) under favorable and unfavorable conditions, with VA increasing and VR decreasing in good environments. However, no such effect was detected for young birds, or for wing patch size in either age class. In addition to these environmental effects on both phenotypic and genetic variances, we found evidence for a significant decrease of forehead patch size over time in older birds. This change appears to be caused by a change in the sign of viability selection on forehead patch size, which is associated with a decline in the breeding value of multiple breeders. Our data thus reveal complex patterns of environmental influence on the expression of secondary sexual characters, which may have important implications for understanding selection and evolution of these characters. [source] Time series analyses reveal transient relationships between abundance of larval anchovy and environmental variables in the coastal waters southwest of TaiwanFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2009CHIH-HAO HSIEH Abstract We investigated environmental effects on larval anchovy fluctuations (based on CPUE from 1980 to 2000) in the waters off southwestern Taiwan using advanced time series analyses, including the state-space approach to remove seasonality, wavelet analysis to investigate transient relationships, and stationary bootstrap to test correlation between time series. For large-scale environmental effects, we used the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to represent the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); for local hydrographic conditions, we used sea surface temperature (SST), river runoff, and mixing conditions. Whereas the anchovy catch consisted of a northern species (Engraulis japonicus) and two southern species (Encrasicholina heteroloba and Encrasicholina punctifer), the magnitude of the anchovy catch appeared to be mainly determined by the strength of Eng. japonicus (Japanese anchovy). The main factor that caused the interannual variation of anchovy CPUE might change through time. The CPUE showed a negative correlation with combination of water temperature and river runoff before 1987 and a positive correlation with river runoff after 1988. Whereas a significant negative correlation between CPUE and ENSOs existed, this correlation was driven completely by the low-frequency ENSO events and explained only 10% of the variance. Several previous studies on this population emphasized that the fluctuations of larval anchovy abundance were determined by local SST. Our analyses indicated that such a correlation was transient and simply reflected ENSO signals. Recent advances in physical oceanography around Taiwan showed that the ENSOs reduced the strength of the Asian monsoon and thus weakened the China Coastal Current toward Taiwan. The decline of larval anchovy during ENSO may be due to reduced China Coastal Current, which is important in facilitating the spawning migration of the Japanese anchovy. [source] Establishing climate,growth relationships for yelloweye rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus) in the northeast Pacific using a dendrochronological approachFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 5 2008BRYAN A. BLACK Abstract We applied dendrochronology (tree-ring) methods to develop multidecadal growth chronologies from the increment widths of yelloweye rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus) otoliths. Chronologies were developed for the central California coast, a site just north of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, and at Bowie Seamount west of the Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia. At each site, synchronous growth patterns were matched among otoliths via the process of cross-dating, ensuring that the correct calendar year was assigned to all increments. Each time series of growth-increment measurements was divided by the values predicted by a best-fit negative exponential function, thereby removing age-related trends. These detrended time series were averaged into a master chronology for each site, and chronologies were correlated with monthly averages of sea surface temperatures, upwelling, the Northern Oscillation Index, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The two northern growth chronologies positively correlated with indices of warm ocean conditions, especially from the prior summer through the spring of the current year. During the same period, the California chronology positively correlated with indices of cool ocean conditions, indicating an opposing productivity regime for yelloweye rockfish between the California Current and the Gulf of Alaska. Overall, this study demonstrates how tree-ring techniques can be applied to quickly develop annually resolved chronologies and establish climate,growth relationships across various temporal and spatial scales. [source] Mechanistic links between climate and fisheries along the east coast of the United States: explaining population outbursts of Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus)FISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 1 2007JONATHAN A. HARE Abstract Climate has been linked to variation in marine fish abundance and distribution, but often the mechanistic processes are unknown. Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) is a common species in estuarine and coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic and southeast coasts of the U.S. Previous studies have identified a correlation between Atlantic croaker abundance and winter temperatures in Chesapeake Bay, and have determined thermal tolerances of juveniles. Here we re-examine the hypothesis that winter temperature variability controls Atlantic croaker population dynamics. Abundance indices were analyzed at four life history stages from three regions along the east coast of the U.S. Correlations suggest that year-class strength is decoupled from larval supply and is determined by temperature-linked, overwinter survival of juveniles. Using a relation between air and water temperatures, estuarine water temperature was estimated from 1930 to 2002. Periods of high adult catch corresponded with warm winter water temperatures. Prior studies indicate that winter temperature along the east coast is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); variability in catch is also correlated with the NAO, thereby demonstrating a link between Atlantic croaker dynamics, thermal limited overwinter survival, and the larger climate system of the North Atlantic. We hypothesize that the environment drives the large-scale variability in Atlantic croaker abundance and distribution, but fishing and habitat loss decrease the resiliency of the population to periods of poor environmental conditions and subsequent weak year classes. [source] Spatial and temporal variability of the Aleutian climateFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 2005SERGEI N. RODIONOV Abstract The objective of this paper is to highlight those characteristics of climate variability that may pertain to the climate hypothesis regarding the long-term population decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus). The seasonal changes in surface air temperature (SAT) across the Aleutian Islands are relatively uniform, from 5 to 10°C in summer to near freezing temperatures in winter. The interannual and interdecadal variations in SAT, however, are substantially different for the eastern and western Aleutians, with the transition found at about 170°W. The eastern Aleutians experienced a regime shift toward a warmer climate in 1977, simultaneously with the basin-wide shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In contrast, the western Aleutians show a steady decline in winter SATs that started in the 1950s. This cooling trend was accompanied by a trend toward more variable SAT, both on the inter- and intra-annual time scale. During 1986,2002, the variance of winter SATs more than doubled compared to 1965,1985. At the same time in Southeast Alaska, the SAT variance diminished by half. Much of the increase in the intra-seasonal variability for the western Aleutians is associated with a warming trend in November and a cooling trend in January. As a result, the rate of seasonal cooling from November to January has doubled since the late 1950s. We hypothesize that this trend in SAT variability may have increased the environmental stress on the western stock of Steller sea lions and hence contributed to its decline. [source] Environmental effects on recruitment and productivity of Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus with recommendations for managementFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2005AKIHIKO YATSU Abstract We compared a wide range of environmental data with measures of recruitment and stock production for Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus to examine factors potentially responsible for fishery regimes (periods of high or low recruitment and productivity). Environmental factors fall into two groups based on principal component analyses. The first principal component group was determined by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index and was dominated by variables associated with the Southern Oscillation Index and Kuroshio Sverdrup transport. The second was led by the Arctic Oscillation and dominated by variables associated with Kuroshio geostrophic transport. Instantaneous surplus production rates (ISPR) and log recruitment residuals (LNRR) changed within several years of environmental regime shifts and then stabilized due, we hypothesize, to rapid changes in carrying capacity and relaxation of density dependent effects. Like ISPR, LNRR appears more useful than fluctuation in commercial catch data for identifying the onset of fishery regime shifts. The extended Ricker models indicate spawning stock biomass and sea surface temperatures (SST) affect recruitment of sardine while spawning stock biomass, SST and sardine biomass affect recruitment of chub mackerel. Environmental conditions were favorable for sardine during 1969,87 and unfavorable during 1951,67 and after 1988. There were apparent shifts from favorable to unfavorable conditions for chub mackerel during 1976,77 and 1985,88, and from unfavorable to favorable during 1969,70 and 1988,92. Environmental effects on recruitment and surplus production are important but fishing effects are also influential. For example, chub mackerel may have shifted into a new favorable fishery regime in 1992 if fishing mortality had been lower. We suggest that managers consider to shift fishing effort in response to the changing stock productivity, and protect strong year classes by which we may detect new favorable regimes. [source] Modeling the influence of oceanic-climatic changes on the dynamics of Pacific saury in the northwestern Pacific using a life cycle modelFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 2004YONGJUN TIAN Abstract A life cycle model for Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) was developed to clarify the possible causes of interannual and decadal variability in its abundance. In the model, the population of saury is composed of two spawning cohorts: one spawned in the Kuroshio region during autumn,winter and the other spawned in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Transition Zone during winter,spring. The life cycle of saury was divided into six stages: namely egg, larval, juvenile, young, immature and adult stages. The life cycle model combines growth, survival, fishing and reproductive processes, in which the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Kuroshio region and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the winter-spawning cohorts, the effects of SST in the Oyashio region on the spring-spawning cohorts, and the effects of fishing on the two spawning cohorts are taken into account. Results of basic modeling, in which environments are assumed stable and the stock is affected by fishing only, shows that the interannual fluctuations in the abundance are small and could hardly explain the observed large annual changes in abundance. On the contrary, results of modeling incorporating the effects of oceanic-climatic changes corresponded well with actual interannual-decadal variations in abundance. These results suggest the following environmental effects: (1) SST in the Kuroshio region affects decadal changes in abundance; (2) ENSO events influence the survival of the winter spawning cohort and result in large interannual variations in the abundance. It is concluded that large-scale climatic and oceanic changes strongly affect the abundance of saury. [source] Synchronicity in southern hemisphere squid stocks and the influence of the Southern Oscillation and Trans Polar IndexFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2004C. M. Waluda Abstract Squid are short lived, with highly labile populations that respond rapidly to changes in environmental conditions. This makes them a good model for studying the response of recruitment processes to environmental signals. This study examines the influence of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Trans Polar Index (TPI) on the environment and abundance of six species of commercially important squid from the southern hemisphere, all linked to major current systems connected by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current: Dosidicus gigas (Southeast Pacific), Loligo vulgaris reynaudii (Southeast Atlantic), Nototodarus sloanii, N. gouldi (Southwest Pacific), Illex argentinus and L. gahi (Southwest Atlantic). All fisheries displayed a high level of inter-annual variability and a degree of synchronicity was seen to occur in the abundance of the three Pacific species. The SOI signal was reflected in the environment of each fishery, particularly in Pacific regions. Both indices are correlated with squid abundance, particularly during the early life history stages (SOI) and adult stages (TPI), suggesting some degree of latitudinal separation, with juveniles potentially influenced by environmental variability at lower latitudes and adults at higher latitudes. [source] Climate change and abundance of the Atlantic-Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus)FISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2004C. Guisande Abstract Climatic warming is affecting oceanic circulation patterns in coastal upwelling areas, but the impact of this climatic change on pelagic fish populations remains unclear. From juvenile landings collected over 38 years, the thresholds of environmental factors were determined that limited the optimal environmental window (OEW) for sardine (Sardina pilchardus recruitment success in the northwestern Iberian peninsula. The environmental factors considered were: water column stability in February, offshore water transport in March,April (QxMA), upwelling intensity in the preceding year from May to August (QxMJJA), and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. From 1875 to the mid-1920s, the mean number of years within the OEW was relatively constant. However, since the mid-1920s, there have been oscillations and alternating decades with high and low number of years within the OEW, which were related to oscillations in sardine landings. From 1906 to 2000, there were four record, low sardine catches in the 1920s, 1950s, 1970s and 1990s, related to a high number of successive years with prevailing conditions out of the OEW. From 1875 to the present, a high year-to-year variation of the NAO, QxMJJA and water stability in February was observed, although with mean values usually within the OEW. The collapse in the 1950s was related, partly, to successive years with low QxMJJA. Successive years with high NAO values may be related to the collapse of the sardine fishery in the 1990s. QxMA has been the most significant factor controlling SRS in this area, being the factor related to the low catches observed in the 1920s, 1950s and 1970s. Water stability was not responsible for any of the collapses observed, but since the 1920s, there has been a significant trend toward decreasing water column stability before the onset of the spring bloom. [source] Copepod species diversity and climate variability in the tropical Atlantic OceanFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 4-5 2003Sergey A. Piontkovski Abstract A database synthesized from 19 oceanographic expeditions conducted by the former Soviet Union was used to analyse interannual patterns in copepod species diversity in the tropical Atlantic. Mesozooplankton was collected predominately in vertical hauls through the upper 100 m with Juday nets. The samples from 744 oceanographic stations were identified and enumerated to the species level. To assess species diversity, the Shannon diversity index was used. On the interdecadal scale, no statistically confirmed trend was found in species diversity change over the years sampled (1963,89). Multiple regression analysis indicated that interannual fluctuations of the South Atlantic High (pressure and latitude), the Azores High longitude and El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index could explain 87% of species diversity fluctuations. Possible mechanisms that drive interannual fluctuations of species diversity are discussed. [source] Short-term climatic trends affect the temporal variability of macroinvertebrates in California ,Mediterranean' streamsFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 12 2007LEAH A. BÊCHE Summary 1. Long-term studies in ecology are essential for understanding natural variability and in interpreting responses to disturbances and human perturbations. We assessed the long-term variability, stability and persistence of macroinvertebrate communities by analysing data from three regions in northern California with a mediterranean-climate. During the study period, precipitation either increased or decreased, and extreme drought events occurred in each region. 2. Temporal trends in precipitation resulted in shifts from ,dry-year' communities, dominated by taxa adapted to no or low flow, to ,wet-year' communities dominated by taxa adapted to high flows. The abundance of chironomid larvae was an important driver of community change. Directional change in community composition occurred at all sites and was correlated with precipitation patterns, with more dramatic change occurring in smaller streams. 3. All communities exhibited high to moderate persistence (defined by the presence/absence of a species) and moderate to low stability (defined by changes in abundance) over the study period. Stability and persistence were correlated with climatic variation (precipitation and El Niño Southern Oscillation) and stream size. Stability and persistence increased as a result of drought in small streams (first-order) but decreased in larger streams (second- and third-order). Communities from the dry season were less stable than those from the wet-season. 4. This study demonstrates the importance of long-term studies in capturing the effects of and recovery from rare events, such as the prolonged and extreme droughts considered here. [source] Factors influencing the temporal coherence of five lakes in the English Lake DistrictFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2000D. G. George 1. The lakes in the Windermere catchment are all deep, glacial lakes but they differ in size, shape and general productivity. Here, we examine the extent to which year-to-year variations in the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of these lakes varied synchronously over a 30,40-year period. 2. Coherence was estimated by correlating time-series of the spring, summer, autumn and winter characteristics of five lakes: Esthwaite Water, Blelham Tarn, Grasmere and the North and South Basins of Windermere. Three physical, four chemical and two biological time-series were analysed and related to year-to-year variations in a number of key driving variables. 3. The highest levels of coherence were recorded for the physical and chemical variables where the average coherence was 0.81. The average coherence for the biological variables was 0.11 and there were a number of significant negative relationships. The average coherence between all possible lake pairs was 0.59 and average values ranged from 0.50 to 0.74. A graphical analysis of these results demonstrated that the coherence between individual lake pairs was influenced by the relative size of the basins as well as their trophic status. 4. A series of examples is presented to demonstrate how a small number of driving variables influenced the observed levels of coherence. These range from a simple example where the winter temperature of the lakes was correlated with the climatic index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, to a more complex example where the summer abundance of zooplankton was correlated with wind-mixing. 5. The implications of these findings are discussed and a conceptual model developed to illustrate the principal factors influencing temporal coherence in lake systems. The model suggests that our ability to detect temporal coherence depends on the relative magnitude of three factors: (a) the amplitude of the year-to-year variations; (b) the spatial heterogeneity of the driving variables and (c) the error terms associated with any particular measurement. [source] Soil and atmospheric water deficits and the distribution of New Zealand's indigenous tree speciesFUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2001Leathwick J. R. Summary 1.,An extensive data set describing the composition of New Zealand's remaining indigenous forests was used to estimate the degree of correlation between measures of both soil and atmospheric water deficit and the distribution of common tree species. 2.,For most species, regression models incorporating measures of air saturation deficit in early autumn, as well as an annual integral of root zone water deficit, provided the best explanation of spatial distribution. This accords strongly with the mechanistic effects of air saturation deficits on transpiration from trees, and the hydraulic risks experienced by trees under high evaporative demand. 3.,Adjustment of root zone water deficits to account for reductions in rainfall in dry years substantially improved model predictions. This suggests that extreme climatic events, such as the El Niño phase of the Southern Oscillation, are likely to have strongly influenced the historic composition of forests in New Zealand's drier eastern lowlands. [source] Re-Dating the Moraines at Skálafellsjökull and Heinabergsjökull using different Lichenometric Methods: Implications for the Timing of the Icelandic Little Ice Age MaximumGEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2004Krista M. Mckinzey Abstract Little Ice Age (LIA) moraines along the margins of Skálafellsjökull and Heinabergsjökull, two neighbouring outlet glaciers flowing from the Vatnajökull ice-cap, have been re-dated to test the reliability of different lichenometric approaches. During 2003, 12 000 lichens were measured on 40 moraine fragments at Skálafellsjökull and Heinabergsjökull to provide surface age proxies. The results are revealing. Depending on the chosen method of analysis, Skálafellsjökull either reached its LIA maximum in the early 19th century (population gradient) or the late 19th century (average of five largest lichens), whereas the LIA maximum of Heinabergsjökull occurred by the mid-19th century (population gradient) or late-19th century (average of 5 largest lichens). Discrepancies (c. 80 years for Skálafellsjökull and c. 40 years for Heinabergsjökull) suggest that the previously cited AD 1887 LIA maxima for both glaciers should be reassessed. Dates predicted by the lichen population gradient method appear to be the most appropriate, as mounting evidence from other geochronological reconstructions and sea-ice records throughout Iceland tends to support an earlier LIA glacier maximum (late 18th to mid-19th century) and probably reflects changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. These revised chronologies shed further light on the precise timing of the Icelandic LIA glacier maximum, whilst improving our understanding of glacier-climate interactions in the North Atlantic. [source] Penguin responses to climate change in the Southern OceanGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2009JAUME FORCADA Abstract Penguins are adapted to live in extreme environments, but they can be highly sensitive to climate change, which disrupts penguin life history strategies when it alters the weather, oceanography and critical habitats. For example, in the southwest Atlantic, the distributional range of the ice-obligate emperor and Adélie penguins has shifted poleward and contracted, while the ice-intolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins have expanded their range southward. In the Southern Ocean, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode are the main modes of climate variability that drive changes in the marine ecosystem, ultimately affecting penguins. The interaction between these modes is complex and changes over time, so that penguin responses to climate change are expected to vary accordingly, complicating our understanding of their future population processes. Penguins have long life spans, which slow microevolution, and which is unlikely to increase their tolerance to rapid warming. Therefore, in order that penguins may continue to exploit their transformed ecological niche and maintain their current distributional ranges, they must possess adequate phenotypic plasticity. However, past species-specific adaptations also constrain potential changes in phenology, and are unlikely to be adaptive for altered climatic conditions. Thus, the paleoecological record suggests that penguins are more likely to respond by dispersal rather than adaptation. Ecosystem changes are potentially most important at the borders of current geographic distributions, where penguins operate at the limits of their tolerance; species with low adaptability, particularly the ice-obligates, may therefore be more affected by their need to disperse in response to climate and may struggle to colonize new habitats. While future sea-ice contraction around Antarctica is likely to continue affecting the ice-obligate penguins, understanding the responses of the ice-intolerant penguins also depends on changes in climate mode periodicities and interactions, which to date remain difficult to reproduce in general circulation models. [source] Are local weather, NDVI and NAO consistent determinants of red deer weight across three contrasting European countries?GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2009MARÍA MARTÍNEZ-JAUREGUI Abstract There are multiple paths via which environmental variation can impact herbivore ecology and this makes the identification of drivers challenging. Researchers have used diverse approaches to describe the association between environmental variation and ecology, including local weather, large-scale patterns of climate, and satellite imagery reflecting plant productivity and phenology. However, it is unclear to what extent it is possible to find a single measure that captures climatic effects over broad spatial scales. There may, in fact, be no a priori reason to expect populations of the same species living in different areas to respond in the same way to climate as their population may experience limiting factors at different times of the year, and the forms of regulation may differ among populations. Here, we examine whether the same environmental indices [seasonal Real Bioclimatic Index (RBI), seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)] influence body size in different populations of a large ungulate living in Mediterranean Spain, Western Scotland and Norway. We found substantial differences in the pattern of weight change over time in adult female red deer among study areas as well as different environmental drivers associated with variation in weight. The lack of general patterns for a given species at a continental scale suggest that detailed knowledge regarding the way climate affects local populations is often necessary to successfully predict climate impact. We caution against extrapolation of results from localized climate,population studies to broad spatial scales. [source] Climatic effects on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of an arctic-nesting goose speciesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 9 2008MARIE-HÉLÈNE DICKEY Abstract Climate warming is pronounced in the Arctic and migratory birds are expected to be among the most affected species. We examined the effects of local and regional climatic variations on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of greater snow geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica), a migratory species nesting in the Canadian Arctic. We used a long-term dataset based on the monitoring of 5447 nests and the measurements of 19 234 goslings over 16 years (1989,2004) on Bylot Island. About 50% of variation in the reproductive phenology of individuals was explained by spring climatic factors. High mean temperatures and, to a lesser extent, low snow cover in spring were associated with an increase in nest density and early egg-laying and hatching dates. High temperature in spring and high early summer rainfall were positively related to nesting success. These effects may result from a reduction in egg predation rate when the density of nesting geese is high and when increased water availability allows females to stay close to their nest during incubation recesses. Summer brood loss and production of young at the end of the summer increased when values of the summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) index were either very positive (low temperatures) or very negative (high temperatures), indicating that these components of the breeding success were most influenced by the regional summer climate. Gosling mass and size near fledging were reduced in years with high spring temperatures. This effect is likely due to a reduced availability of high quality food in years with early spring, either due to food depletion resulting from high brood density or a mismatch between hatching date of goslings and the timing of the peak of plant quality. Our analysis suggests that climate warming should advance the reproductive phenology of geese, but that high spring temperatures and extreme values of the summer AO index may decrease their reproductive success up to fledging. [source] Regeneration patterns and persistence of the fog-dependent Fray Jorge forest in semiarid Chile during the past two centuriesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2008ALVARO G. GUTIÉRREZ Abstract The persistence of rainforest patches at Fray Jorge National Park (FJNP) in semiarid Chile (30°40,S), a region receiving approximately 147 mm of annual rainfall, has been a source of concern among forest managers. These forests are likely dependent on water inputs from oceanic fog and their persistence seems uncertain in the face of climate change. Here, we assessed tree radial growth and establishment during the last two centuries and their relation to trends in climate and canopy disturbance. Such evaluation is critical to understanding the dynamics of these semiarid ecosystems in response to climate change. We analyzed forest structure of six forest patches (0.2,22 ha) in FJNP based on sampling within 0.1 ha permanent plots. For the main canopy species, the endemic Aextoxicon punctatum (Aextoxicaceae), we used tree-ring analysis to assess establishment periods, tree ages, growing trends and their relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), rainfall, and disturbance. The population dynamics of A. punctatum can be described by a continuous regeneration mode. Regeneration of A. punctatum was sensitive to different canopy structures. Growth release patterns suggest the absence of large scale human impact. Radial growth and establishment of A. punctatum were weakly correlated with rainfall and ENSO. If water limits forests patch persistence, patches are likely dependent on the combination of fog and rain water inputs. Forest patches have regenerated continuously for at least 250 years, despite large fluctuations in rainfall driven by ENSO and a regional decline in rainfall during the last century. Because of the positive influence on fog interception, forest structure should be preserved under any future climate scenario. Future research in FJNP should prioritize quantifying the long-term trends of fog water deposition on forests patches. Fog modeling is crucial for understanding the interplay among physical drivers of water inputs under climate change. [source] Large-scale climatic signatures in lakes across Europe: a meta-analysisGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2007THORSTEN BLENCKNER Abstract Recent studies have highlighted the impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on water temperature, ice conditions, and spring plankton phenology in specific lakes and regions in Europe. Here, we use meta-analysis techniques to test whether 18 lakes in northern, western, and central Europe respond coherently to winter climate forcing, and to assess the persistence of the winter climate signal in physical, chemical, and biological variables during the year. A meta-analysis approach was chosen because we wished to emphasize the overall coherence pattern rather than individual lake responses. A particular strength of our approach is that time-series from each of the 18 lakes were subjected to the same robust statistical analysis covering the same 23-year period. Although the strongest overall coherence in response to the winter NAO was exhibited by lake water temperatures, a strong, coherent response was also exhibited by concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus and soluble reactive silicate, most likely as a result of the coherent response exhibited by the spring phytoplankton bloom. Lake nitrate concentrations showed significant coherence in winter. With the exception of the cyanobacterial biomass in summer, phytoplankton biomass in all seasons was unrelated to the winter NAO. A strong coherence in the abundance of daphnids during spring can most likely be attributed to coherence in daphnid phenology. A strong coherence in the summer abundance of the cyclopoid copepods may have been related to a coherent change in their emergence from resting stages. We discuss the complex nature of the potential mechanisms that drive the observed changes. [source] Climate change effects on upland stream macroinvertebrates over a 25-year periodGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2007ISABELLE DURANCE Abstract Climate change effects on some ecosystems are still poorly known, particularly where they interact with other climatic phenomena or stressors. We used data spanning 25 years (1981,2005) from temperate headwaters at Llyn Brianne (UK) to test three hypotheses: (1) stream macroinvertebrates vary with winter climate; (2) ecological effects attributable to directional climate change and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are distinguishable and (3) climatic effects on macroinvertebrates depend on whether streams are impacted by acidification. Positive (i.e. warmer, wetter) NAO phases were accompanied by reduced interannual stability (=similarity) in macroinvertebrate assemblage in all streams, but associated variations in composition occurred only in acid moorland. The NAO and directional climate change together explained 70% of interannual variation in temperature, but forest and moorland streams warmed respectively by 1.4 and 1.7°C (P<0.001) between 1981 and 2005 after accounting for NAO effects. Significant responses among macroinvertebrates were confined to circumneutral streams, where future thermal projections (+1, +2, +3°C) suggested considerable change. Spring macroinvertebrate abundance might decline by 21% for every 1°C rise. Although many core species could persist if temperature gain reached 3°C, 4,10 mostly scarce taxa (5,12% of the species pool) would risk local extinction. Temperature increase in Wales approaches this magnitude by the 2050s under the Hadley HadCM3 scenarios. These results support all three hypotheses and illustrate how headwater stream ecosystems are sensitive to climate change. Altered composition and abundance could affect conservation and ecological function, with the NAO compounding climate change effects during positive phases. We suggest that acidification, in impacted streams, overrides climatic effects on macroinvertebrates by simplifying assemblages and reducing richness. Climatic processes might, nevertheless, exacerbate acidification or offset biological recovery. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||