Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis (operating + characteristic_curve_analysis)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Kinds of Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis

  • receiver operating characteristic curve analysis

  • Selected Abstracts

    BIOMARKER: Phosphatidylethanol as a sensitive and specific biomarker,comparison with gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, mean corpuscular volume and carbohydrate-deficient transferrin

    ADDICTION BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2007
    Susanne Hartmann
    ABSTRACT Phosphatidylethanol (PEth), a direct ethanol metabolite, is detectable in blood for more than 2 weeks after sustained ethanol intake. Our aim was to assess the usefulness of PEth [comparing sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC)] as compared with carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) and mean corpuscular volume (MCV), calculating the results from sober patients against those from alcohol-dependent patients during withdrawal. Fifty-six alcohol-dependent patients (ICD-10 F 10.25) in detoxification, age 43 years, GGT 81 U/l, MCV 96.4 fl, %CDT 4.2, 1400 g ethanol intake in the last 7 days (median), were included in the study. Over the time of 1 year, 52 samples from 35 sober forensic psychiatric addicted in-patients [age 34 years, GGT 16 U/l, MCV 91 fl, CDT 0.5 (median)] in a closed ward were drawn and used for comparison . PEth was measured in heparinized whole blood with a high-performance liquid chromatography method. GGT, MCV and %CDT were measured using routine methods. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was carried out, with ,current drinking status' (sober/drinking) as the state variable and PEth, MCV, GGT and CDT as test variables. The resulting AUC was 0.974 (P < 0.0001, confidence interval 0.932,1.016) for PEth. At a cut-off of 0.36 µmol/l, the sensitivity was 94.5% and specificity 100%. The AUC for CDT, GGT and MCV were 0.931, 0.894 and 0.883, respectively. A significant Spearman's rank correlation was found between PEth and GGT (r = 0.739), CDT (r = 0.643), MVC (r = 0.639) and grams of ethanol consumed in the last 7 days (r = 0.802). Our data suggest that PEth has potential to be a sensitive and specific biomarker, having been found in previous studies to indicate longer lasting intake of higher amounts of alcohol. [source]

    Quantitative analysis of anti,hepatitis C virus antibody,secreting B cells in patients with chronic hepatitis C,

    HEPATOLOGY, Issue 1 2006
    Takeji Umemura
    To investigate the quantitative characteristics of humoral immunity in patients with hepatitis C, we established an enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISpot) assay for detection of anti,hepatitis C virus (HCV)-secreting B cells. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated 100% specificity and 58% to 92% sensitivity for detecting B-cell responses to NS5b, NS3, E2, and core antigens. The median sum of anti-HCV,secreting B cells to all HCV antigens tested was significantly higher in 39 patients with chronic hepatitis C (47.3 spot forming cells [SFCs]/106 peripheral blood mononuclear cells [PBMCs]) than in 9 recovered subjects (15.3 SFCs/106 PBMCs; P = .05) or 11 uninfected controls (5.3 SFCs/106 PBMCs; P < .001); the significant difference (P = .018) in chronic versus recovered patients was in reactivity to nonstructural antigens NS3 and NS5b. Anti-HCV immunoglubulin M (IgM),secreting B cells were also readily detected and persisted decades into HCV infection; there was no difference in IgM-positive cells between chronic and recovered patients. ELISpot reactivity to genotype 1,derived antigens was equivalent in patients of genotypes 1, 2, and 3. There was significant correlation between the numbers of anti-HCV IgG-secreting B cells and serum aminotransferase and to the level of circulating antibody. In conclusion, ELISpot assays can be adapted to study B-cell as well as T-cell responses to HCV. Measurement at the single-cell level suggests that humoral immunity plays a minor role in recovery from HCV infection and that B-cell immunity is strongest in those with persistent infection. (HEPATOLOGY 2005.) [source]

    Quantitative evaluation of DNA hypermethylation in malignant and benign breast tissue and fluids

    Weizhu Zhu
    Abstract The assessment of DNA had demonstrated altered methylation in malignant compared to benign breast tissue. The purpose of our study was to (i) confirm the predictive ability of methylation assessment in breast tissue, and (ii) use the genes found to be cancer predictive in tissue to evaluate the diagnostic potential of hypermethylation assessment in nipple aspirate fluid (NAF) and mammary ductoscopic (MD) samples. Quantitative methylation specific (qMS)-PCR was conducted on three specimen sets: 44 malignant (CA) and 34 normal (NL) tissue specimens, 18 matched CA, adjacent normal (ANL) tissue and NAF specimens, and 119 MD specimens. Training and validation tissue sets were analyzed to determine the optimal group of cancer predictive genes for NAF and MD analysis. NAF and MD cytologic review were also performed. Methylation of CCND -2, p16, RAR -, and RASSF-1a was significantly more prevalent in tumor than in normal tissue specimens. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.96. For the 18 matched CA, ANL and NAF specimens, the four predictive genes identified in cancer tissue contained increased methylation in CA vs. ANL tissue; NAF samples had higher methylation than ANL specimens. Methylation frequency was higher in MD specimens from breasts with cancer than benign samples for p16 and RASSF-1a. In summary, i) routine quantitative DNA methylation assessment in NAF and MD samples is possible, and ii) genes hypermethylated in malignant breast tissue are also altered in matched NAF and in MD samples, and may be useful to assist in early breast cancer detection. [source]

    Quantitative analysis of MUC1 and MUC5AC mRNA in pancreatic juice for preoperative diagnosis of pancreatic cancer

    Kenoki Ohuchida
    Abstract Pancreatic juice is a promising type of diagnostic sample for pancreatic cancer, and members of the mucin (MUC) family are diagnostic candidates. To evaluate the utility of MUC family members as diagnostic markers, we measured MUC mRNA expression in pancreatic tissues and pancreatic juice obtained from patients with different pancreatic diseases as well as in pancreatic cancer cell lines by real-time PCR. Furthermore, to support the possibility of early diagnosis by quantification of MUC1 and MUC5AC, immunohistochemistry and microdissection-based quantitative analysis of mRNA were carried out. There was no significant correlation between MUC1 and MUC5AC expression in cell lines. When ,-actin was used as a reference gene, median MUC1 and MUC5AC mRNA expression levels were remarkably greater in tumoral tissues than in non-tumoral tissues, but median MUC4 and MUC6 mRNA expression levels were not. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that quantitative analysis of MUC1 and MUC5AC mRNA in pancreatic juice is better diagnostic modality than that of MUC4 and MUC6 mRNA. Immunohistochemistry showed that MUC1 and MUC5AC were highly expressed in invasive ductal carcinomas (IDC) and moderately expressed in high-grade pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN); no staining was observed in normal ducts. Analysis of cells isolated by microdissection showed stepwise upregulation of MUC1 and MUC5AC in the development of high-grade PanIN to IDC. Our results suggest that MUC1 and MUC5AC are upregulated stepwise in pancreatic carcinogenesis and that quantitative assessment of MUC1 and MUC5AC mRNA in pancreatic juice has high potential for preoperative diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. © 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source]

    The development and initial validation of the Terminally Ill Grief or Depression Scale (TIGDS)

    Vyjeyanthi S. Periyakoil
    Abstract Patients often experience ,preparatory-grief' as they cope with the dying process. Some may be depressed. The Terminally Ill Grief or Depression Scale (TIGDS), comprising grief and depression sub-scales, is a new self-report measure designed to differentiate between preparatory-grief and depression in adult inpatients. The initial 100-item inventory was assembled based on literature review, interviews with clinicians and dying patients and then shortened to 42 items based on consensus expert opinion. Validity and reliability were tested in a sample of 55 terminally ill adults. The consensus clinical opinion was used as the gold standard to differentiate between preparatory grief and depression. The intra-class correlation coefficient was high (it was calculated to estimate the test-retest reliability for the 47 patients who had completed the TIGDS twice , retest was administered 2 to 7 days after the initial test), ranging from 0.86 (grief) to 0.97 (depression). The validity of TIGDS was assessed using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, comparing the first test with the clinical criterion. The first and only variable and cut-point was the depression score (chi-square = 18.4,p < 0.001, cut point = 3). The sensitivity of the TIGDS was 0.727 and specificity was 0.886 for the depression = 3 cutoff score. The construct validity of the TIGDS was tested by comparing with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). The TIGDS depression subscale showed strong convergent validity and the TIGDS grief subscale showed strong discriminant validity with the HADS total score. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

    Evaluation of local recurrence after treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma by contrast-enhanced ultrasonography using Sonazoid: Comparison with dynamic computed tomography

    Kazue Shiozawa MD
    Abstract Purpose. To evaluate the effectiveness of contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS) using Sonazoid for the diagnosis of the local recurrence after treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by comparing it with dynamic CT. Methods. Seventy-one patients with 87 HCC lesions (mean ± SD; 19.5 ± 9.6 mm) underwent CEUS using Sonazoid and dynamic CT after radiofrequency ablation (n = 55), transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (n = 22), or radiofrequency ablation combined with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (n = 10). Two hepatologists (observer 1; 10 years of experience, and 2; 20 years of experience) reviewed the CEUS and dynamic CT images independently and evaluated presence or absence of the local recurrence. Diagnostic performance for the local recurrence was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results. The Az value for dynamic CT was significantly lower in observer 1 than 2 (p < 0.05). The sensitivity of CEUS was 79% in observer 1 and 83.9% in observer 2, and that of dynamic CT was 83.9% and 90.3%, respectively. The specificity of CEUS was 96%, and that of dynamic CT was 92%, in both observers. Conclusion. This study suggests that CEUS using Sonazoid is less affected by the observer's experience and is more accurate in the diagnosis of local recurrence after treatment for HCC than dynamic CT. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Clin Ultrasound, 2010 [source]

    The role of Doppler sonography in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis

    Naile Bolca Topal MD
    Abstract Purpose To investigate the role of Doppler sonography (DUS) examination of major abdominal arteries in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods Twenty-nine patients diagnosed with AP and 14 controls were blindly and prospectively evaluated with Doppler sonography. Disease severity was defined clinically according to acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II) score and was classified as severe for APACHE II score ,8. DUS examination included the measurement of peak systolic velocity (PSV), end diastolic velocity (EDV), pulsatility index (PI), and resistance index (RI) of the celiac artery (CA) and superior mesenteric artery (SMA). Statistical analysis included Mann-Whitney U test, Student t test, and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results Twelve patients had severe AP and 17 had mild AP. PSV, EDV, and PI of the CA and RI of the SMA were higher in the severe AP group than in the mild AP and control groups (p < 0.001 and p < 0.0001, respectively). The sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 94%, respectively, for a 87 cm/second CA PSV cutoff value, 75% and 100%, respectively, for a 22 cm/second CA EDV cutoff value, 92% and 82%, respectively, for a 1.29 CA PI cutoff value, and 100% and 100%, respectively, for a 0.86 SMA RI cutoff value. Conclusion DUS can be useful in predicting the severity of AP in the early period of admission phase of the disease. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Clin Ultrasound, 2008 [source]

    Risk prediction for Down's syndrome in young pregnant women using maternal serum biomarkers: determination of cut-off risk from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis

    Hsiao-Lin Hwa MD PhD
    Abstract Objective, The aim of this study was to establish a predictive model for Down's syndrome using maternal age as well as maternal serum levels of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), and to identify an optimal cut-off risk in women under the age of 35 years to improve sensitivity. Methods, Logistic regression models were utilized to predict fetal Down's syndrome as a function of maternal age and logarithm of levels of AFP as well as hCG using training data of 20 pregnancies with fetal Down's syndrome and 9730 unaffected pregnancies. Validation was performed using data of another nine affected pregnancies and 3496 unaffected pregnancies. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. Results, Based on the newly established logistic regression equations, the optimal cut-off risk from the ROC curve analysis was at 1:499, with a 17.8% false-positive rate and a 90.0% sensitivity. A suboptimal cut-off risk was estimated at 1:332, with a 12.0% false-positive rate and an 80% sensitivity. Conclusion, A predictive model for Down's syndrome was developed using logistic regression. By ROC curve analysis and clinical consideration, the cut-off risk for young pregnant women could be determined. [source]

    Pulse pressure variation and stroke volume variation during different loading conditions in a paediatric animal model

    Background: Previous studies in adult patients and animal models have demonstrated that pulse pressure variation (PPV) and stroke volume variation (SVV) can be used to predict the response to fluid administration. Currently, little information is available on the performance of these variables in infants and neonates. The aim of our study was to assess whether PPV and SVV can predict fluid responsiveness in an animal model and to investigate the influence of different tidal volumes applied. Methods: PPV and SVV were monitored by pulse contour analysis in 19 anaesthetized and paralysed piglets during ventilation with tidal volumes (VT) of 5, 10 and 15 ml/kg both before and after fluid loading with 25 ml/kg of hydroxy-ethyl starch 6% (HES). Cardiac output was measured by pulmonary artery thermodilution and a positive response to HES infusion was defined as ,20% increase in the stroke volume index (SVI). Results: Before HES infusion, PPV and SVV were significantly greater during ventilation with a VT of 10 and 15 ml/kg than during ventilation with a VT of 5 ml/kg (P<0.05). After HES infusion, only ventilation with VT 15 ml/kg resulted in a significant increase in PPV and SVV. As assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, SVV during ventilation with VT 10 ml/kg was the best predictor of a positive response to fluid loading (AUC=0.87). Conclusions: In this paediatric animal model, we found that SVV during ventilation with 10 ml/kg was a sensitive and specific predictor of the response to fluid loading. [source]

    Predictive value of actin-free Gc-globulin in acute liver failure,,

    Frank V. Schiødt
    Serum concentrations of the actin scavenger Gc-globulin may provide prognostic information in acute liver failure (ALF). The fraction of Gc-globulin not bound to actin is postulated to represent a better marker than total Gc-globulin but has been difficult to measure. We tested a new rapid assay for actin-free Gc-globulin to determine its prognostic value when compared with the King's College Hospital (KCH) criteria in a large number of patients with ALF. A total of 252 patients with varying etiologies from the U.S. ALF Study Group registry were included; the first 178 patients constituted the learning set, and the last 74 patients served as the validation set. Actin-free Gc-globulin was determined with a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. The median (range) actin-free Gc-globulin level at admission for the learning set was significantly reduced compared with controls (47 [0-183] mg/L vs. 204 [101-365] mg/L, respectively, P < 0.001). Gc-globulin levels were significantly higher in spontaneous survivors than in patients who died or were transplanted (53 [0-129] mg/L vs. 37 [0-183] mg/L, P = 0.002). A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that a 40 mg/L cutoff level carried the best prognostic information, yielding positive and negative predictive values of 68% and 67%, respectively, in the validation set. The corresponding figures for the KCH criteria were 72% and 64%. A new enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for actin-free Gc-globulin provides the same (but not optimal) prognostic information as KCH criteria in a single measurement at admission. Liver Transpl 13:1324,1329, 2007. © 2007 AASLD. [source]

    The association between preeclampsia and placental disruption induced by chorionic villous sampling

    PRENATAL DIAGNOSIS, Issue 6 2010
    Antonio Farina
    Abstract Objectives The objectives of this study were (1) to evaluate if the elevation of maternal serum ,-feto protein (MSAFP) and pregnancy-associated placental protein-A (PAPP-A) in the maternal blood after chorionic villous sampling (CVS) is associated with a higher preeclampsia (PE) rate and (2) to verify the clinical utility of the analytes elevation for predicting PE. Methods A prospective study on 106 subjects who underwent CVS was performed. At the time of CVS, two blood samples were obtained for MSAFP and PAPP-A dosage, the first just before the procedure, and the second one 30 min after the procedure. Cases with abnormal karyotype, major anomalies or preterm delivery were subsequently excluded. The ratio between the two samples was calculated as , (MSAFP or PAPP-A post-CVS/MSAFP or PAPP-A pre-CVS) and it was related to subsequent occurrence of PE. Results The rate of PE was 5.7% (6/106). Both MSAFP and PAPP-A levels were higher after than before CVS (median ratio = 8.33 and 1.08, respectively). Cases developing PE had significantly higher MSAFP ratio (11.6 vs 7.4, p -value = 0.04) and PAPP-A ratio (1.13 vs 1.08, p -value = 0.009) than those who did not develop PE. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that PAPP-A ratio was a better predictor of subsequent PE than MSAFP ratio: at a fixed false positive rate of 10%, the detection rates for MSAFP and PAPP-A ratios were 33 and 50%, respectively. Conclusion The elevation of MSAFP and PAPP-A observed with CVS is associated with increased risk of subsequent PE. The ability of such increases to predict PE appears to be modest. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

    Estimation for the Optimal Combination of Markers without Modeling the Censoring Distribution

    BIOMETRICS, Issue 1 2009
    Chin-Tsang Chiang
    Summary In the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with several baseline markers, research interest focuses on seeking appropriate composite markers to enhance the accuracy in predicting the vital status of individuals over time. Based on censored survival data, we proposed a more flexible estimation procedure for the optimal combination of markers under the validity of a time-varying coefficient generalized linear model for the event time without restrictive assumptions on the censoring pattern. The consistency of the proposed estimators is also established in this article. In contrast, the inverse probability weighting (IPW) approach might introduce a bias when the selection probabilities are misspecified in the estimating equations. The performance of both estimation procedures are examined and compared through a class of simulations. It is found from the simulation study that the proposed estimators are far superior to the IPW ones. Applying these methods to an angiography cohort, our estimation procedure is shown to be useful in predicting the time to all-cause and coronary artery disease related death. [source]

    Stage migration in localized prostate cancer has no effect on the post-radical prostatectomy Kattan nomogram

    BJU INTERNATIONAL, Issue 5 2010
    Ruban Thanigasalam
    Study Type , Prognosis (case series) Level of Evidence 4 OBJECTIVE To investigate the effect of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing on stage migration in an Australian population, and its consequences on the prognostic accuracy of the post-radical prostatectomy (RP) Kattan nomogram, as in North America widespread PSA testing has resulted in prostate cancer stage migration, questioning the utility of prognostic nomograms in this setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS The study comprised 1008 men who had consecutive RP for localized prostate cancer between 1991 and 2001 at one institution. Two groups were assessed, i.e. those treated in 1991,96 (group 1, the early PSA era), and 1997,2001 (group 2, the contemporary PSA era). Differences in clinicopathological features between the groups were analysed by chi-squared testing and survival modelling. Individual patient data were entered into the post-RP Kattan nomogram and the efficacy assessed by receiver- operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS Patients in group 2 had lower pathological stage disease (P = 0.01) and fewer cancers with Gleason score ,8 (P < 0.001) than group 1. Multivariate analysis identified preoperative serum PSA level (P < 0.01) and Gleason score (P < 0.01) as strong predictors of biochemical relapse in both groups. In group 2 pathological stage was not significant, but margin involvement became highly significant (P = 0.004). There was no difference in the predictive accuracy of the Kattan nomogram between the groups (P = 0.253). CONCLUSIONS These findings show a downward stage migration towards organ-confined disease after the introduction of widespread PSA testing in an Australian cohort. Despite this, the Kattan nomogram remains a robust prognostic tool in clinical practice. [source]