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Selected AbstractsProbabilistic Neural Network for Reliability Assessment of Oil and Gas PipelinesCOMPUTER-AIDED CIVIL AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING, Issue 5 2002Sunil K. Sinha A fuzzy artificial neural network (ANN),based approach is proposed for reliability assessment of oil and gas pipelines. The proposed ANN model is trained with field observation data collected using magnetic flux leakage (MFL) tools to characterize the actual condition of aging pipelines vulnerable to metal loss corrosion. The objective of this paper is to develop a simulation-based probabilistic neural network model to estimate the probability of failure of aging pipelines vulnerable to corrosion. The approach is to transform a simulation-based probabilistic analysis framework to estimate the pipeline reliability into an adaptable connectionist representation, using supervised training to initialize the weights so that the adaptable neural network predicts the probability of failure for oil and gas pipelines. This ANN model uses eight pipe parameters as input variables. The output variable is the probability of failure. The proposed method is generic, and it can be applied to several decision problems related with the maintenance of aging engineering systems. [source] ModEco: an integrated software package for ecological niche modelingECOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2010Qinghua Guo ModEco is a software package for ecological niche modeling. It integrates a range of niche modeling methods within a geographical information system. ModEco provides a user friendly platform that enables users to explore, analyze, and model species distribution data with relative ease. ModEco has several unique features: 1) it deals with different types of ecological observation data, such as presence and absence data, presence-only data, and abundance data; 2) it provides a range of models when dealing with presence-only data, such as presence-only models, pseudo-absence models, background vs presence data models, and ensemble models; and 3) it includes relatively comprehensive tools for data visualization, feature selection, and accuracy assessment. [source] A study of lightning phenomena on distribution lines based on a lightning-surge analysis model for direct lightning strokesELECTRONICS & COMMUNICATIONS IN JAPAN, Issue 10 2008Teru Miyazaki Abstract In order to rationalize the lightning protection design of distribution lines, lightning phenomena on TEPCO's distribution lines were continuously observed. The observations were carried out with still cameras and lightning surge monitoring sensors. The results elucidate the lightning performance of distribution lines. For example, direct lightning strokes are the major cause of the present distribution line faults. This fact suggests that it is important to investigate observation data on direct lightning strokes. The observation data were analyzed by means of a direct lightning analysis model. The calculated waveforms were compared with the measured waveforms on distribution lines. The probability distributions of the surge currents and voltages were calculated by the Monte Carlo method. These results provide new data on lightning performance. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electron Comm Jpn, 91(10): 28, 37, 2008; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/ecj.10164 [source] Tracking palustrine water seasonal and annual variability in agricultural wetland landscapes using Landsat from 1997 to 2005GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2007OFER BEERI Abstract Wetlands densely populate the ecoregion transecting the center of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) known as the Missouri Coteau and epicenter to the most productive waterfowl-breeding habitat in North America. These palustrine, depressional basin waters vacillate with regional drought and deluge, so surface water fluctuations over time modulate wetland productivity, habitat, and water quality functions. Models predict formidable effects of climate change on glacial basin surface waters, yet large-scale, long-term observation data are lacking to compare against predicted changes. Current, optical-based water detection models do not delineate marsh vegetation from shallow, turbid, high-chlorophyll waters common to the region. We developed a palustrine wetland spectral model for tracking open surface waters using Landsat imagery, which we evaluated for a 2500 km2 landscape that estimates seasonal and annual open water variability for thousands of individual wetlands in the Missouri Coteau ecoregion. Detection accuracy of 96% was achieved for water bodies greater than a half-pixel in size. We identified shifts in the distribution of water permanence classes within and between years for waters emerging in spring, mid-summer, and late summer from 1997 to 2005 and identified a maximum of 19 047 basins with open water (12% of the landscape) populating 2500 km2. For the 2005 growing season, we observed only 8757 basins with open water (6% of the landscape) for the same area. Declines were greatest for water bodies detected only in spring, suggesting a loss of those wetlands functioning to recharge groundwater stores early in the season and a high sensitivity to observed reductions in snowfall. If landscape factors driving open water coverage and wetland density are similar for the entire Missouri Coteau, we estimate the number of basins containing at least a pixel of water for this region declined from 577 600 to 266 000 between 1997 and 2005. [source] Effects of topography on the spatial distribution of evapotranspiration over a complex terrain using two-source energy balance model with ASTER dataHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 16 2009H. K. Kafle Abstract Spatial distribution of evapotranspiration (ET) over a complex terrain is estimated using a new approach of the conventional two-source energy balance (TSEB) model by considering the effect of topography (difference in slope and aspect). We name this approach topography considered two-source energy balance (T2SEB) model. The novelty of this model is the estimation of incoming shortwave solar radiation considering slope, aspect, altitude, latitude, longitude, and the day of calculation in the TSEB model, so that the new model should have wider applicability than existing models over topographically complex areas. In this study, high spatial resolution Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data and meteorological data are used. ET over a complex terrain of Nagoya, Japan, on three different dates, 4 November 2005, 25 May 2004 and 30 October 2003, is estimated using both TSEB and T2SEB models. To validate both models, estimated results are compared with ground observation data at the flux tower site. Moreover, estimated results from TSEB and T2SEB models are compared in five different locations of different topography within the study area. Variation of net radiation absorbed by the surface (Rn) with topographical variables is also studied with the help of scatter plots. Estimated results for all three dates agreed within ±75 W m,2 with calculated values from both models at the flux tower site. TSEB underestimated/overestimated ET in sunlit/shaded areas in hilly areas. The T2SEB model estimated ET in hilly areas better than the TSEB model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Geotechnical parameter estimation in tunnelling using relative convergence measurementINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR NUMERICAL AND ANALYTICAL METHODS IN GEOMECHANICS, Issue 2 2006Kook-Hwan Cho Abstract Accurate estimation of geotechnical parameters is an important and difficult task in tunnel design and construction. Optimum evaluation of the geotechnical parameters have been carried out by the back-analysis method based on estimated absolute convergence data. In this study, a back-analysis technique using measured relative convergence in tunnelling is proposed. The extended Bayesian method (EBM), which combines the prior information with the field measurement data, is adopted and combined with the 3-dimensional finite element analysis to predict ground motion. By directly using the relative convergence as observation data in the EBM, we can exclude errors that arise in the estimation of absolute displacement from measured convergence, and can evaluate the geotechnical parameters with sufficient reliability. The proposed back-analysis technique is applied and validated by using the measured data from two tunnel sites in Korea. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Examination for adjoint boundary conditions in initial water elevation estimation problemsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR NUMERICAL METHODS IN FLUIDS, Issue 11 2010T. KurahashiArticle first published online: 23 JUL 200 Abstract I present here a method of generating a distribution of initial water elevation by employing the adjoint equation and finite element methods. A shallow-water equation is employed to simulate flow behavior. The adjoint equation method is utilized to obtain a distribution of initial water elevation for the observed water elevation. The finite element method, using the stabilized bubble function element, is used for spatial discretization, and the Crank,Nicolson method is used for temporal discretizations. In addition to a method for optimally assimilating water elevation, a method is presented for determining adjoint boundary conditions. An examination using the observation data including noise data is also carried out. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Adaptive transfer function-based control of nonlinear process.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADAPTIVE CONTROL AND SIGNAL PROCESSING, Issue 10 2007Case study: Control of temperature in industrial methane tank Abstract The state model-based transfer function models are applied for adaptation of linear controller and disturbance compensator in a feedback/feed-forward control system of nonlinear process. An advantage of the presented adaptation method is the avoidance of artificial disturbances or iterative identification procedures for on-line estimation of process dynamic parameters. The adaptation is based on linearization of the process model at each sampling time about the current state point, independent of the process being at steady-state or transient conditions. The linear time-varying dynamics model is updated on-line using measured values of process variables and reduced to the first-order plus time delay transfer function models in order to directly apply well-developed controller tuning rules. Computational aspects of the adaptation method are discussed and computation algorithms are presented. The adaptive feedback/feed-forward control system was applied for controlling temperature in industrial methane tank, dynamic parameters of which vary in a wide range due to variations of methane-tank process load and external conditions. The heat balance-based process state model is developed and validated using observation data of real plant. Computer simulation of the proposed control system performance under extreme operating conditions demonstrates fast adaptation of controller parameters, robust behaviour and significant improvement in the controllers' performance compared to that of fixed-gain controllers. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Wind speed measurements and forest damage in Canton Zurich (Central Europe) from 1891 to winter 2007INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Tilo Usbeck Abstract The most severe damage to forests in central Europe occurs during winter storms that are caused by Northern Hemispheric mid-latitude cyclones. These winter storms have caused several catastrophic windthrows during the past four decades. Amounts of forest storm damage are believed to be a function of both the size of the forest and the storm intensity. To test this hypothesis, the Zurich region (city and canton) was chosen because long-term climate observation data is available for the region. The relationships between forest attributes, wind speed and forest damage were explored by comparing data on forests and wind speed from 107 winters with forest damage. Storm damage was defined as the proportion of damaged forests with respect to the growing stock. The variables: daily wind run (91 years), daily maximum hourly average wind speed (107 years) and peak gust wind speed (74 years) were homogenized with respect to high wind speed and related to levels of forest damage. High maximum wind speed at the end of the 19th century and at the beginning of the 20th century was followed by low maximum wind speed in the 1940s, 1960s and 1970s. Since then, maximum values have increased. Gusts (extremes of the maximum wind speed) increased from the beginning of the recordings in 1933 and peaked in the early 1990s. Forest damage due to winter storms is best correlated with peak wind speed. Gusts exceeding 40 m/s and resulting in catastrophic windthrow have increased in recent winters. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The Effects of Staffing on In-Bed Times of Nursing Home ResidentsJOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 6 2004Barbara M. Bates-Jensen PhD, CWOCN Objectives: To examine the effect of staffing level on time observed in bed during the daytime in nursing home (NH) residents. Design: Descriptive, cross-sectional study. Setting: Thirty-four southern California NHs. Participants: A total of 882 NH residents: 837 had hourly observation data, 777 had mealtime observations, 837 completed interviews, and 817 completed a physical performance test. Measurements: Cross-sectional data collected from participants at each NH site included direct observations (hourly and mealtime), resident interviews, medical record review, and physical performance tests. Results: In multivariate analyses, staffing level remained the strongest predictor of time observed in bed after controlling for resident functional measures (odds ratio=4.89; P=.042). Residents observed in bed during the daytime in more than 50% of hourly observations were observed also to experience increased daytime sleeping (P<.001) and less social engagement (P=.026) and consumed less food and fluids during mealtimes than those observed in bed in less than 50% of observations, after adjusting for resident function (P<.001). Conclusion: In this sample of NHs, resident functional measures and NH staffing level predicted observed time in bed according to hourly observations, with staffing level the most powerful predictor. Neither of these predictors justifies the excessive in-bed times observed in this study. Staff care practices relevant to encouraging residents to be out of bed and resident preferences for being in bed should be examined and improved. Practice recommendations regarding in-bed time should be considered, and further research should seek to inform the development of such recommendations. [source] Students' science perceptions and enrollment decisions in differing learning cycle classroomsJOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN SCIENCE TEACHING, Issue 9 2001Ann M.L. Cavallo This investigation examined 10th-grade biology students' decisions to enroll in elective science courses, and explored certain attitudinal perceptions of students that may be related to such decisions. The student science perceptions were focused on student and classroom attitudes in the context of differing learning cycle classrooms (high paradigmatic/high inquiry, and low paradigmatic/low inquiry). The study also examined possible differences in enrollment decisions/intentions and attitudinal perceptions among males and females in these course contexts. The specific purposes were to: (a) explore possible differences in students' decisions, and in male and female students' decisions to enroll in elective science courses in high versus low paradigmatic learning cycle classrooms; (b) describe patterns and examine possible differences in male and female students' attitudinal perceptions of science in the two course contexts; (c) investigate possible differences in students' science perceptions according to their decisions to enroll in elective science courses, participation in high versus low paradigmatic learning cycle classrooms, and the interaction between these two variables; and (d) examine students' explanations of their decisions to enroll or not enroll in elective science courses. Questionnaire and observation data were collected from 119 students in the classrooms of six learning cycle biology teachers. Results indicated that in classrooms where teachers most closely adhered to the ideal learning cycle, students had more positive attitudes than those in classrooms where teachers deviated from the ideal model. Significantly more females in high paradigmatic learning cycle classrooms planned to continue taking science course work compared with females in low paradigmatic learning cycle classrooms. Male students in low paradigmatic learning cycle classrooms had more negative perceptions of science compared with males in high paradigmatic classrooms, and in some cases, with all female students. It appears that using the model as it was originally designed may lead to more positive attitudes and persistence in science among students. Implications include the need for science educators to help teachers gain more thorough understanding of the learning cycle and its theoretical underpinnings so they may better implement this procedure in classroom teaching. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. J Res Sci Teach 38: 1029,1062, 2001 [source] Issues in targeted observingTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 613 2005(Invited paper for the Q. J. R. Meteorol. Abstract This paper summarizes successes and limitations of targeted observing field programmes starting from the Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment in 1997 through recent programmes targeting winter storms and tropical cyclones. These field programmes have produced average reductions in short-range forecast errors of about 10 per cent over regional verification areas, and maximum forecast error reductions as large as 50 per cent in certain cases. The majority of targeting cases investigated so far involve sets of dropsondes and other observation data that provide partial coverage of target areas. The primary scientific challenges for targeting include the refinement of objective methods that can identify optimal times and locations for targeted observations, as well as identify the specific types of satellite and in situ measurements that are required for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts. The most advanced targeting procedures, at present, include: the ensemble transform Kalman Filter, Hessian singular vectors, and observation-space targeting using the adjoint of a variational data assimilation procedure. Targeted observing remains an active research topic in numerical weather prediction, with plans for continued refinement of objective targeting procedures, and field tests of new satellite and in situ observing systems. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Decreasing self-injurious behavior associated with awakening in a child with autism and developmental delaysBEHAVIORAL INTERVENTIONS, Issue 2 2004Iser G. DeLeon Direct observation data revealed that self-injurious behavior (SIB) emitted by a young boy with autism occurred primarily within one hour after waking versus all other times of the day. Experimentally manipulated scheduled awakenings supported the hypothesized relation between waking and SIB. A faded-bedtime procedure was then implemented to stabilize his sleep patterns, which reduced awakenings by 81% and post-waking SIB by 82%. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] |