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Arctic Oscillation (arctic + oscillation)
Selected AbstractsEnvironmental effects on recruitment and productivity of Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus with recommendations for managementFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2005AKIHIKO YATSU Abstract We compared a wide range of environmental data with measures of recruitment and stock production for Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus to examine factors potentially responsible for fishery regimes (periods of high or low recruitment and productivity). Environmental factors fall into two groups based on principal component analyses. The first principal component group was determined by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index and was dominated by variables associated with the Southern Oscillation Index and Kuroshio Sverdrup transport. The second was led by the Arctic Oscillation and dominated by variables associated with Kuroshio geostrophic transport. Instantaneous surplus production rates (ISPR) and log recruitment residuals (LNRR) changed within several years of environmental regime shifts and then stabilized due, we hypothesize, to rapid changes in carrying capacity and relaxation of density dependent effects. Like ISPR, LNRR appears more useful than fluctuation in commercial catch data for identifying the onset of fishery regime shifts. The extended Ricker models indicate spawning stock biomass and sea surface temperatures (SST) affect recruitment of sardine while spawning stock biomass, SST and sardine biomass affect recruitment of chub mackerel. Environmental conditions were favorable for sardine during 1969,87 and unfavorable during 1951,67 and after 1988. There were apparent shifts from favorable to unfavorable conditions for chub mackerel during 1976,77 and 1985,88, and from unfavorable to favorable during 1969,70 and 1988,92. Environmental effects on recruitment and surplus production are important but fishing effects are also influential. For example, chub mackerel may have shifted into a new favorable fishery regime in 1992 if fishing mortality had been lower. We suggest that managers consider to shift fishing effort in response to the changing stock productivity, and protect strong year classes by which we may detect new favorable regimes. [source] Climatic effects on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of an arctic-nesting goose speciesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 9 2008MARIE-HÉLÈNE DICKEY Abstract Climate warming is pronounced in the Arctic and migratory birds are expected to be among the most affected species. We examined the effects of local and regional climatic variations on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of greater snow geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica), a migratory species nesting in the Canadian Arctic. We used a long-term dataset based on the monitoring of 5447 nests and the measurements of 19 234 goslings over 16 years (1989,2004) on Bylot Island. About 50% of variation in the reproductive phenology of individuals was explained by spring climatic factors. High mean temperatures and, to a lesser extent, low snow cover in spring were associated with an increase in nest density and early egg-laying and hatching dates. High temperature in spring and high early summer rainfall were positively related to nesting success. These effects may result from a reduction in egg predation rate when the density of nesting geese is high and when increased water availability allows females to stay close to their nest during incubation recesses. Summer brood loss and production of young at the end of the summer increased when values of the summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) index were either very positive (low temperatures) or very negative (high temperatures), indicating that these components of the breeding success were most influenced by the regional summer climate. Gosling mass and size near fledging were reduced in years with high spring temperatures. This effect is likely due to a reduced availability of high quality food in years with early spring, either due to food depletion resulting from high brood density or a mismatch between hatching date of goslings and the timing of the peak of plant quality. Our analysis suggests that climate warming should advance the reproductive phenology of geese, but that high spring temperatures and extreme values of the summer AO index may decrease their reproductive success up to fledging. [source] Seasonality of the northern hemisphere circumpolar vortexINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2007Kalyn M. Wrona Abstract In previous research, Rohli et al. (2005) identified long-term features of the northern hemispheric circumpolar vortex (NHCPV) in January. This research provides a seasonal analysis using December and February to augment the previously analyzed January data in representing winter, along with April, July, and October data to represent spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. A representative 500 hPa geopotential height contour was selected to delineate the NHCPV in each of the five months. The area, shape, and centroid of the monthly December, February, April, July, and October NHCPV are computed for 1959,2001 to supplement the previously identified January properties. These geometrical features of the NHCPV reveal relationships between hemispheric-scale circulation and temperature anomalies throughout the year. A circularity ratio (Rohli et al., 2005) is used to characterize the shape of the hemispheric-scale circulation. Results suggest that only October exhibit long-term trends in either area or circularity, with July being the most variable month in area and October being the most variable month in circularity. Centroids tend to be skewed toward the Pacific basin, except in spring, but few systematic temporal shifts in centroid position were noted for any month. The NHCPV is correlated with atmospheric teleconnection patterns in several months. For example, as was the case for January (Rohli et al., 2005), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is associated with the area of the December, February, and April NHCPV, while in December the circularity is positively correlated to the AO Index. Also, the Pacific-North American index is correlated with the area of the December and February NHCPV and with the shape of the December and October NHCPV. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Features of cross-Pacific climate shown in the variability of China and US precipitationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2005Q. Li Abstract In this study, we have analyzed the climate features of China and the United States with a focus on the differences, similarities, connectivity, and predictability of precipitation and the relationships between precipitation and large-scale patterns of natural variability. China precipitation is characterized by large seasonality, with a maximum in summer and a minimum in winter. The seasonality of precipitation shows an increasing linear tendency in northwest China, with a change of about 20% from 1901 to 1998. A relatively weaker increasing tendency also appears in the Big Bend of Yellow River (BBYR) and the Tibetan Plateau, while southwest China experiences a decreasing tendency. Furthermore, the seasonality in the BBYR shows particularly significant interdecadal variability, while that of southern and eastern China has decreased slightly in the recent decades. Compared to China, the United States as a whole has less precipitation in summer but more precipitation in other seasons. Here, the seasonality of precipitation is only about 24% of that in China. The annual mean precipitation is 64.1 mm per month in the United States, compared to 54.6 mm per month in China. The seasonality of precipitation exhibits a decreasing tendency in the southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Gulf Coast and an increasing tendency in the Great Lakes. The seasonality in the Great Plains exhibits large interdecadal variability. The long-term variations of precipitation are highly seasonally dependent. In summer, a decreasing trend is observed in north China and an increasing trend is found in eastern-central China. However, these trends are almost opposite in spring. In addition, the fall precipitation decreases with time nearly everywhere in China except for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley. Results also indicate that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the North Pacific (NP) fluctuation affect strongly the variations of China and US precipitation. Although these influences vary with regions and seasons, we in particular emphasize the importance of AO and NAO for China precipitation and NP and PDO for US precipitation. In fall, ENSO and PDO are the two phenomena that influence predominantly precipitation variability in both China and the United States We also identify the common phenomena that influence China and US regional precipitation and provide a better understanding of the physical mechanism for precipitation variability through the associated changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Furthermore, we develop a linear regression model, based on multiple regression method by combining the regionally and seasonally varying impacts, to increase the skill of precipitation prediction. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] January northern hemisphere circumpolar vortex variability and its relationship with hemispheric temperature and regional teleconnectionsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2005Robert V. Rohli Abstract Variability in the hemispheric-scale atmospheric circulation can be directly linked to variations in surface environmental features, such as temperature, precipitation, salinity of water bodies, and pollutant transport. One indicator of the behavior of the hemispheric-scale circulation is the circumpolar vortex (CPV). This research utilizes a geographic information system approach to characterize variability in the Northern Hemispheric (NH) CPV. Specifically, the area, shape, and centroid of the January NHCPV are analyzed for 1959,2001 because it may provide insight about relationships between hemispheric-scale circulation and global temperature change. We also use a new means of characterizing the hemispheric-scale circulation using a ,circularity ratio' (Rc). Results suggest that the January NHCPV has exhibited no long-term trends in area or shape, and that the mean centroid is positioned at approximately 85.3°N, 178.0°W. Regional patterns emerge, which suggest that the area and circularity are associated with variability in surface temperature and moist static energy. Furthermore, the area of the January NHCPV is associated with variability in the Arctic Oscillation, while the shape is tied to variability in the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern. These results will facilitate understanding of the relationship between hemispheric-scale circulation, regional circulation, and local temperatures. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Factors governing the interannual variation and the long-term trend of the 850 hPa temperature over IsraelTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 647 2010H. Saaroni Abstract This study examines the ability of the interannual variability in the occurrence of synoptic types, intensity of large-scale circulations and global temperature to explain that of the 850 hPa temperature in Israel for the summer and the winter. The synoptic factor was represented by 19 types defined by Alpert et al(2004b). For the summer, the deep and the weak Persian Trough explained 35% of the interannual temperature variance. For the winter, the lows to the east and to the north explained 44% of the interannual temperature variance. Two additional factors were incorporated: large-scale circulations, the North Atlantic Oscillation for the summer and the Arctic Oscillation for the winter; and global radiative forcing, represented by the global temperature. Both of them were found to be significant, and the variance explained by all of them is 56% for the summer and 64% for the winter. In the summer the variation is dominated by warm and cool types whereas in the winter the cold systems dominate. The individual contribution of each factor to the long-term temperature trend was estimated. While the global radiative forcing contribution was positive and large in both seasons, the synoptic contribution was positive, four times larger in the summer. The large-scale contribution was negative, three times larger in the winter. The considerable warming in the summer results from a rapid increase in the occurrence of the weak Persian Trough, which is a warm type. The study approach may be useful for predicting future temperature regimes, based on predicted synoptic features in climatic models. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Change in the dominant decadal patterns and the late 1980s abrupt warming in the extratropical Northern HemisphereATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 3 2010Tzu-Ting Lo Abstract Widespread abrupt warming in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (NH) occurred in the late 1980s. This warming was associated with a change in the relative influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-like pattern and the Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like pattern. The AO-like pattern has had a dominant influence on the NH-mean temperature since the late 1980s, whereas the influence of the PDO has weakened. The AO-like mode appears as part of natural variability in the pre-industrial simulations of the CMIP3/IPCC climate models. However, its emergence in the late 1980s was not simulated by most models with or without the observed increasing greenhouse effect in the 20th century. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source] An Arctic and antarctic perspective on recent climate changeINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 3 2007John Turner Abstract We contrast recent climatic and environmental changes and their causes in the Arctic and the Antarctic. There are continuing increases in surface temperatures, losses of sea ice and tundra, and warming of permafrost over broad areas of the Arctic, while most of the major increase in Antarctic temperatures is on the Antarctic Peninsula associated with sea ice loss in the Bellingshausen,Amundsen Seas sector. While both natural atmospheric and oceanic variability, and changes in external forcing including increased greenhouse gas concentrations, must be considered in the quest for understanding such changes, the interactions and feedbacks between system components are particularly strong at high latitudes. For the 1950s to date in the Arctic and for 1957 to date in the Antarctic, positive trends in large-scale atmospheric circulation represented by the Arctic oscillation (AO) and Antarctic oscillations (AAO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern contribute to the long-term temperature trends. However, continuing Arctic trends during the last decade of near neutral AO will require alternate explanations. The trend in the AAO since 1950 is larger than expected from natural variability and may be associated with the decrease in stratospheric ozone over Antarctic. The persistence shown in many Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula components of climate and their influence through possible feedback supports continuation of current trends over the next decade. One can expect large spatial and temporal differences, however, from the relative contributions of intrinsic variability, external forcing, and internal feedback/amplifications. It is particularly important to resolve regional feedback processes in future projections based on modeling scenarios. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Intra-seasonal variability of wintertime temperature over East AsiaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2004Dao-Yi Gong Abstract There has been a profound warming over East Asia during the winter months (November through to March) over the past few decades. The goal of this study is to address the question of whether the daily temperature has become more variable in conjunction with this warming by using observed temperature data obtained from 155 Chinese and Korean stations. Prior to the analysis, the annual cycle is removed to obtain daily temperature anomalies for each winter for each station. Results show that the intra-seasonal variance generally decreases, implying that the daily temperatures are becoming less variable. Considering all stations as a whole, the rate of change is ,0.49°C2 per decade (equivalent to ,3.59% per decade). The changes are more robust in the northeastern portion of China. In contrast, there are no dominant trends for the skewness coefficients, except for clear negatively skewed trends in northeastern China. These results are consistent with an increase in the number of extremely cold events. Over the region, the frequency of low-temperature extremes (as low as below minus two standard deviations) increases at a rate of change of 0.26 days per decade, significant at the 95% confidence level. Both the Siberian high and Arctic oscillation (AO) exert a notable influence on the temperature variance. Intra-seasonal variance of the Siberian high and AO are significantly correlated with the temperature variance, whereas the seasonal mean state of the AO affects the temperature variance by modulating the high-frequency components of the Siberian high. The intra-seasonal variance of the Siberian high tends to decline at a rate of change of ,10.7% per decade, significant at the 99% level; meanwhile, the mean wintertime AOs have strengthened in the last few decades. These two climate features together make a considerable contribution to the changes in intra-seasonal temperature variance in East Asia. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Characteristics of wintertime daily and extreme minimum temperature over South KoreaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2004Sang-Boom Ryoo Abstract In South Korea, consecutive positive temperature anomalies have been observed since the mid-1980s. The objective of this study is to assess the recent trends in, and variability of, daily minimum temperature over South Korea with particular emphasis on its extremes. Temporal characteristics of wintertime daily and extreme minimum temperature-related variables were analysed on a seasonal basis for the period of 1958,59 to 2000,01. The results show continually fewer days with extreme low minimum temperature since the mid-1980s. However, no significant change in the 1 day temperature difference was observed during the same period, indicating little change in the frequency of cold surges. Also, during the period analysed, there is a significant positive trend in the seasonal mean temperature, a negative trend in the frequency of the extreme cold days, and no significant trend in the seasonal occurrence of cold surges. Northern Hemisphere geopotential height fields before and after 1986,87, i.e. the start of successive positive anomalies in the winter surface air temperature over South Korea, showed a substantial decrease throughout the troposphere over the polar region. In the upper levels the overall pattern becomes more wavelike, with eddies embedded between meanders. The differences in the lower troposphere are remarkably similar to the Arctic oscillation, although the centre in the North Atlantic is shifted toward western Europe and differences in the North Pacific are relatively weaker than those in the polar region. The recent positive phase of the Arctic oscillation may contribute to these abrupt changes in wintertime daily minimum temperatures over South Korea. El Niño,southern oscillation phenomena appear to contribute to the interannual variation of cold surge days in South Korea. Years with no cold surges were experienced during La Niña episodes. On the other hand, all years with more than four cases of cold surges were during El Niño episodes. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Changes in the sub-decadal covariability between Northern Hemisphere snow cover and the general circulation of the atmosphereINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2004Kazuyuki Saito Abstract Details of the sub-decadal covariability relationship between continental snow cover extent anomalies and the dominant mode of atmospheric variability, referred to as the Arctic oscillation (AO) or North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), for the period 1971,2001 are explored. On the seasonal time scale, the winter AO is found to be significantly correlated with the preceding autumn Eurasian snow cover (SNCEUR) throughout the period observed. Consistent with this finding, SNCEUR variability led the AO variability on the sub-decadal time scale in the early half of the record. However, starting in the mid 1980s, the AO and SNCEUR vary in phase. Analyses of the seasonal relationship and persistence of snow and atmospheric variables illustrate a phase shift in the sub-decadal variability between the AO and SNCEUR due to the loss of autumn,winter SNCEUR autocorrelation replaced by a significant winter,spring persistence and the emergence of a concurrent SNCEUR,AO connection in winter and spring. Similar analysis shows that the sub-decadal NAO variation is mostly described by the fluctuation in summer North American snow cover. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Circulation dynamics of Mediterranean precipitation variability 1948,98INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 15 2003A. Dünkeloh Abstract Canonical correlation analysis is used to identify main coupled circulation,rainfall patterns and to relate recent variability and trends of Mediterranean precipitation to large-scale circulation dynamics. Analyses are based on geopotential heights (500 and 1000 hPa levels) for the North Atlantic,European area (National Centers for Environmental Prediction,National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis) and on highly resolved (0.5° × 0.5° ) monthly rainfall grids (Climatic Research Unit, Norwich) selected for the Mediterranean area during the 1948,98 period. Combining monthly analyses with similar characteristics to seasonal samples yields winter (October,March), spring (April,May) and summer (June,September) types of coupled variability; a particular autumn type for the whole Mediterranean does not occur on the monthly time scale. Coupled patterns specifically linked to one or two seasons include an east Atlantic jet (EA-Jet) related pattern for summer and a Mediterranean meridional circulation (MMC) pattern for winter and spring. The most important pattern recurring with dynamical adjustments throughout the whole year reflects the seasonal cycle of the Mediterranean oscillation (MO), which is linked (with seasonal dependence) to the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection modes of the Arctic oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Winter rainfall trends of the recent decades marked by widespread decreases in the Mediterranean area and by opposite conditions in the southeastern part are linked to particular changes over time in several of the associated circulation patterns. Thus, different regional rainfall changes are integrated into an overall interrelation between Mediterranean rainfall patterns and large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Relationship between snow cover variability and Arctic oscillation index on a hierarchy of time scalesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2003A. S. Bamzai Abstract Based on satellite-derived global snow cover data on weekly time scales, the climatology and interannual variability of snow onset day-of-year, snowmelt day-of-year and number of snow-free days in a year are presented. Trends for snow onset day-of-year, snowmelt day-of-year and number of snow-free days in a year indicate that there has been an increase in number of snow-free days in recent decades. The relationship between snow cover and the Arctic oscillation (AO) index is examined on a hierarchy of time scales using lagged correlation and composite analysis. On weekly time scales, composite snow extent anomalies are maximum when AO leads snow cover by 1 week. These composite differences are maintained several weeks thereafter, particularly in the negative phase of the AO. Maps of composite snow cover anomalies when AO leads snow cover by 1 week delineate the spatial structure of these snow anomalies. On monthly time scales, lead,lag correlation between monthly snow cover and AO index indicates that the AO index during January, February and March is significantly correlated with snow cover in concurrent and subsequent spring months, particularly over Eurasia. Finally, on seasonal time scales, it is shown that winter season AO and winter/spring season snow cover are significantly correlated. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] The influence of the winter Arctic oscillation on the northern Russia spring temperatureINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2002Vladimir N. Kryjov Abstract Correlation and trend analyses are applied to examine relationships between the northern Russia snow/ice season surface air temperature (SAT) and winter circulation, represented by the January,March Arctic oscillation (AO) index. The 1935,99 series of winter and spring monthly SAT from five stations are used, with the winter season being defined as January,March and the spring season being defined specifically for each station in accordance with local snow/ice season duration from April,May through April,July. It is shown that the influence of the winter circulation on SAT is evident at least until the end of snow/ice season, which suggests that this influence is implemented via feedbacks provided by snow and sea ice. The winter AO accounts for some 25,50% (15,20%) of the winter (spring) SAT variance. More than 50% of the 30 year (1968,97) trends in both winter and spring SAT for northwestern Russia and more than 40% for northwestern Siberia are linearly correlated with the winter AO. It is proposed that in the Arctic Ocean regions, where snow and ice do not melt completely, the winter AO influence on SAT is likely to be evident at least until the next year's winter. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | ||||||||||