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Natural Rate (natural + rate)
Selected AbstractsJOHN MAYNARD KEYNES MEETS MILTON FRIEDMAN AND EDMOND PHELPS: THE RANGE VERSUS THE NATURAL RATE IN AUSTRALIA, 1965:4 TO 2003:3AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 3 2006JENNY N. LYE In this paper we compare the estimates of the range model in Lye and McDonald (2005a) with estimates of a natural rate model. We find that the range model is superior to the natural rate model according to econometric criteria and economic plausibility. Our estimates of the range model suggest that a significantly lower rate of unemployment is obtainable at the current time by aggregate demand policy, indeed a rate of 3.1 per cent for 2003:3 compared with about 6.5 per cent for the natural rate model. Thus we conclude that basing macroeconomic policy on the natural rate model would underrate the possibilities for economic welfare in Australia. [source] Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY, Issue 2 2010Paresh Kumar Narayan Studies in the economics of crime literature have reached mixed conclusions on the deterrence hypothesis. One explanation that has been offered for the failure to find evidence of a deterrent effect in the long run is the natural rate of crime. This article applies univariate unit root tests to crime series for the United Kingdom and United States and panel unit roots to crime rates for a panel of G7 countries to examine whether there is a natural rate of crime. Our main finding is that when we allow for two structural breaks in the univariate unit root test and a structural break in the panel data unit root test, there is strong evidence of a natural rate of crime. The policy implications of our findings is that governments should focus on altering the economic and social structural profile that determines crime in the long run rather than increasing expenditure on law enforcement that will at best reduce crime rates in the short run. [source] Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 246 2003A. J. Hagger We urge macroeconomists to abandon the ,natural rate' as an analytical device on the ground that it has become a source of great and growing confusion. But we press them to recognise that it has great potential as a policy tool provided we grasp the central idea of a hypothetical unemployment rate, which can be compared with the actual unemployment rate. We integrate three hypothetical unemployment rates with the help of an exploratory macro model and then present a quarterly series for each for Australia for the period 1986(2) to 1997(2). We explain how such series could help in policy-making. [source] Resprouting of saplings following a tropical rainforest fire in north-east Queensland, AustraliaAUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 8 2005MATTHEW J. MARRINAN Abstract In 2002, fire burnt areas of Mesophyll- and Notophyll Vine Forest in the Smithfield Conservation Park near Cairns, Australia. We assessed the ability of rainforest plant species to persist through fire via resprouting. Natural rates of mortality and resprouting in unburnt areas were assessed for all saplings (stems < 2 m) via 13, 2 × 50 m belt transects, and compared to estimates of mortality and resprouting in 26 transects in burnt areas. We also tested the resprouting ability per-individual stem of each species against all other stems with which it co-occurred. Totals of 1242 stems (138 species) were sampled in burnt transects and 503 stems (95 species) in unburnt transects (total number of unique species = 169). There was no difference in the number of stems existing prior to the fire in burnt and unburnt areas when expressed on a per-sample area basis. Resprouting from basal shoots and root suckers was significantly greater in burnt than in unburnt areas, but rates of stem sprouting were not different. In burnt areas 72 species were tested for resprouting ability and most (65/72) resprouted at similar rates. All species analysed contained individuals that resprouted. The resprouting response of five species was significantly lower, and in two species was significantly higher. For these species especially, fire may act as a mechanism altering relative abundances. The fire coincided with an extreme El Niņo event. Current predictions indicate El Niņo conditions may become increasingly common, suggesting fire events within rainforest could become more frequent. Resprouting as a general phenomenon of rainforest species, and differential resprouting ability between species should therefore be an important consideration in assessing the potential path of vegetation change in rainforests after fire. [source] New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term StructureJOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, Issue 1 2010GEERT BEKAERT monetary policy; inflation target; term structure of interest rates; Phillips curve This article complements the structural New Keynesian macro framework with a no-arbitrage affine term structure model. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an extended macro model with unobservable processes for the inflation target and the natural rate of output that are filtered from macro and term structure data. We find that term structure information helps generate large and significant parameters governing the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Our model also delivers strong contemporaneous responses of the entire term structure to various macroeconomic shocks. The inflation target shock dominates the variation in the "level factor" whereas monetary policy shocks dominate the variation in the "slope and curvature factors." [source] Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY, Issue 2 2010Paresh Kumar Narayan Studies in the economics of crime literature have reached mixed conclusions on the deterrence hypothesis. One explanation that has been offered for the failure to find evidence of a deterrent effect in the long run is the natural rate of crime. This article applies univariate unit root tests to crime series for the United Kingdom and United States and panel unit roots to crime rates for a panel of G7 countries to examine whether there is a natural rate of crime. Our main finding is that when we allow for two structural breaks in the univariate unit root test and a structural break in the panel data unit root test, there is strong evidence of a natural rate of crime. The policy implications of our findings is that governments should focus on altering the economic and social structural profile that determines crime in the long run rather than increasing expenditure on law enforcement that will at best reduce crime rates in the short run. [source] The asian financial crisis and the natural rate of unemployment: Estimates from a structural var for the newly industrializing economies of asiaPACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2004Nicolaas Groenewold , We use a structural vector autoregressive model to estimate the natural rate of unemployment for Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan for the period 1982,2000. Our results show that the dramatic rise in the unemployment rate observed in Hong Kong and Korea was mainly the result of demand shocks rather than structural changes, while in Singapore the unemployment rate rise reflected almost entirely a rise in the natural rate. Taiwan's natural rate has been relatively stable. We offer explanations for these different results in terms of the different economic characteristics (particularly labor market features) of the four countries. [source] Pollination by deceit in Paphiopedilum barbigerum (Orchidaceae): a staminode exploits the innate colour preferences of hoverflies (Syrphidae)PLANT BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2009J. Shi Abstract Paphiopedilum barbigerum T. Tang et F. T. Wang, a slipper orchid native to southwest China and northern Vietnam, produces deceptive flowers that are self-compatible but incapable of mechanical self-pollination (autogamy). The flowers are visited by females of Allograpta javana and Episyrphus balteatus (Syrphidae) that disperse the orchid's massulate pollen onto the receptive stigmas. Measurements of insect bodies and floral architecture show that the physical dimensions of these two fly species correlate with the relative positions of the receptive stigma and dehiscent anthers of P. barbigerum. These hoverflies land on the slippery centralised wart located on the shiny yellow staminode and then fall backwards through the labellum entrance. They are temporarily trapped in the inflated chamber composed of the interconnected labellum and column. The attractive staminode of P. barbigerum strongly reflects the colour yellow (500,560 nm), a colour preferred innately by most pollen-eating members of the Syrphidae. No scent molecules were detected using GC mass spectrometry analysis, showing that the primary attractant in this system is visual, not olfactory. Pollination-by-deceit in P. barbigerum is contrasted with its congener, P. dianthum, a brood site mimic that is pollinated by ovipositing females of E. balteatus. As the natural rate of fruit set in P. barbigerum (mean 26.3% pooled over three seasons) is lower than that of P. dianthum (mean 58.5% over two seasons), the evolution of false brood sites in some Paphiopedilum spp. should be selectively advantageous as they may provide an increase in the attention and return rates of dependable pollinators to flowers that always lack a reward. [source] Unemployment Hysteresis in Australian States and Territories: Evidence from Panel Data Unit Root TestsTHE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 2 2003Russell Smyth This article tests for hysteresis by applying panel data unit root tests to quarterly unemployment rates for Australian states and territories between 1982:2 and 2002:1. Panel tests proposed by Levin and Lin (1992) using ordinary least squares and O'Connell (1998) using feasible generalised least squares (which assume that under the alternative hypothesis of stationarity, all labour markets revert to the natural rate at the same speed) provide evidence in support of the natural rate hypothesis. However, the panel test proposed by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997), which does not assume that all cross-sectional units converge towards the equilibrium value at the same speed under the alternative and is therefore less restrictive than the other two panel tests, finds evidence of hysteresis. Given the advantages of the Im et al. (1997) test over the other two panel tests the results can be interpreted as being consistent with the existence of hysteresis in unemployment [source] COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY: HISTORICAL AND REAL-TIME ESTIMATES OF THE NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE UK MONETARY POLICY*THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 4 2009GEORGE CHOULIARAKIS The paper derives and compares historical and real-time estimates of the UK natural unemployment rate and shows that real-time estimates are fraught with noise and should be treated with scepticism. A counterfactual exercise shows that, for most of the 1990s, the Bank of England tracked changes in the natural rate relatively successfully, albeit with some recognition lag which, at times, might have led to excessively cautious policy. A careful scrutiny of the minutes of the monetary policy committee meetings reveals that such ,cautiousness' should be taken as evidence of awareness of the real-time informational limitations that monetary policy is facing. [source] DID THE MARKET-CLEARING POSTULATE PRE-EXIST NEW CLASSICAL ECONOMICS?THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 3 2007THE CASE OF MARSHALLIAN THEORY Have new classicists invented market clearing or have they just rehabilitated it? This is the question addressed in the present paper. It is generally agreed that market clearing underpins Walrasian theory, so my exploration is limited to the question of whether this is also true for Marshallian theory. I will claim that this is broadly the case: once Marshallian theory is properly reconstructed, it exhibits market clearing as a constantly present result. Still, an important difference between market clearing ā la Walras and market clearing ā la Marshall exists: in the former market clearing is equilibrium, while in the latter market clearing can coexist with disequilibrium. Next, I investigate whether my conclusion extends to the labour market. Again the conclusion reached is affirmative both for Marshall's theory and for present-day Marshallian models. As to the latter, I take Friedman's Phillips curve model as a case study. I show that this is a market-clearing model in which, strictly speaking, there is no place for the concept of unemployment,quite an ironical result for the paper that introduced the notion of the natural rate of unemployment! [source] REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT DISPARITIES: AN EVALUATION OF POLICY MEASURES,AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 4 2008N. GROENEWOLD This paper analyses the efficacy of regional and federal government policies in reducing inter-regional unemployment disparities. We use as our framework a two-region general equilibrium model with a given freely-mobile supply of labour. We assume inter-regional migration to occur in response to inter-regional utility differentials. Each region has households, firms and a regional government. In addition to regional governments, there is a federal government. The firms in a region use a single factor, labour, to produce a single good which we assume to be different to that produced in the other region. It is supplied to households and to the regional government in the form of payroll taxes. Households consume some, trade some with households in the other region and give some up to the federal government as income tax. Firms and households bargain over wages and firms then choose employment to maximise profits. The resulting equilibrium will generally not be a full-employment one. We simulate a linearised numerical version of the model. We examine seven alternative policies, six carried out by a regional government and one by the federal government. In the first group there are traditional tax/expenditure polices as well as policies which might be seen as attacking the natural rate of unemployment: changes in unemployment benefits, changes in union power, changes in the labour force and changes in labour productivity. The federal government policy is a regionally-differentiated fiscal policy. Contrary to expectations, many policies which have traditionally been recommended to alleviate unemployment are found, in fact, to exacerbate the unemployment problem. [source] Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 246 2003A. J. Hagger We urge macroeconomists to abandon the ,natural rate' as an analytical device on the ground that it has become a source of great and growing confusion. But we press them to recognise that it has great potential as a policy tool provided we grasp the central idea of a hypothetical unemployment rate, which can be compared with the actual unemployment rate. We integrate three hypothetical unemployment rates with the help of an exploratory macro model and then present a quarterly series for each for Australia for the period 1986(2) to 1997(2). We explain how such series could help in policy-making. [source] Analysis of landslide frequencies and characteristics in a natural system, coastal British ColumbiaEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 11 2004R. H. Guthrie Abstract Two hundred and one debris slides and debris ,ows were analyzed in a 286 km2 study area on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. The study area remains essentially untouched by humans and therefore affords a natural setting in which to examine slope processes. Landslides were identi,ed and characterized on aerial photographs from 1:15 000 to 1:31 680, and were then mapped and transferred to a GIS for analysis. Based on detailed landslide surveys, we propose a new method to accurately determine volume of landslides of this type by measured total area. Results indicate average denudation rates of 56 m3 y,1 km,2, and higher natural rates of failure than analogous regions in coastal British Columbia. In contrast, the landslide rates are substantially less than those from forested watersheds. Landslide distribution is spatially clustered in air photograph epochs, and we propose intense storm cells within regional events as the causal mechanism. Further, failures occurred preferentially over the West Coast Crystalline Complex (by 1ˇ4 times), a metamorphic assemblage of gabbros, schists and amphibolites, but 1ˇ5 times less often over the Island Plutonic Suite, a granitic intrusive formation. The former result represents a new ,nding, while the latter corroborates ,ndings of previous authors. We examined magnitude,frequency relationships of the data set and present for the ,rst time a strong argument that the rollover effect is not merely an artefact, but is instead a consequence of the physical characteristics of the landslides themselves. We subsequently analyzed magnitude,frequency relationships from two other complete data sets from coastal British Columbia and produced a family of curves corroborating this result. Copyright Š 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Geographic variation in sperm traits reflects predation risk and natural rates of multiple paternity in the guppyJOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2010K. E. ELGEE Abstract Guppies (Poecilia reticulata) are models for understanding the interplay between natural and sexual selection. In particular, predation has been implicated as a major force affecting female sexual preferences, male mating tactics and the level of sperm competition. When predation is high, females typically reduce their preferences for showy males and engage more in antipredator behaviours, whereas males exploit these changes by switching from sexual displays to forced matings. These patterns are thought to account for the relatively high levels of multiple paternity in high-predation populations compared to low-predation populations. Here, we assess the possible evolutionary consequences of these patterns by asking whether variation in sperm traits reflect differences in predation intensity among four pairs of Trinidadian populations: four that experience relatively low levels of predation from a gape-limited predator and four that experience relatively high levels of predation from a variety of piscivores. We found that males in high-predation populations had faster swimming sperm with longer midpieces compared to males in low-predation populations. However, we found no differences among males in high- and low-predation populations with respect to sperm number, sperm head length, flagellum length and total sperm length. [source] | |||||||||||||