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Medium Range (medium + range)
Selected AbstractsExecutive functioning deficits in relation to symptoms of ADHD and/or ODD in preschool childrenINFANT AND CHILD DEVELOPMENT, Issue 5 2006Lisa B. Thorell Abstract The present study investigated the relation between executive functioning and symptoms of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD) in children aged 4,6. A population-based sample (n=201) was used and laboratory measures of inhibition, working memory and verbal fluency and teacher ratings of disruptive behaviour problems were collected. Both group differences and linear relations were studied and comorbidity was controlled for dimensionally. In both categorical and dimensional analyses, executive functioning was associated with symptoms of ADHD, but not with symptoms of ODD when controlling for comorbidity, and no significant interactive effects of ADHD and ODD symptoms were found. Effect sizes for significant effects were generally in the medium range. Regarding sex differences, the control for comorbid ODD symptoms appeared to affect the relation between ADHD symptoms and executive functioning somewhat more for girls compared with boys. In conclusion, poor executive functioning in preschool appears to be primarily related to symptoms of ADHD, whereas the relation to symptoms of ODD can be attributed to the large overlap between these two disruptive disorders. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] High-resolution millimeter-wave radar systems for visualization of unstructured outdoor environmentsJOURNAL OF FIELD ROBOTICS (FORMERLY JOURNAL OF ROBOTIC SYSTEMS), Issue 10 2006Graham Brooker This paper examines the use of millimeter-wave radar systems for visualization and navigation in unstructured outdoor environments. Three types of radar systems are described. The first is a long range, 94 GHz, frequency modulated interrupted continuous wave radar which is capable of producing two-dimensional (2D) reflectivity images to a range of more than 3 km. This is intended for use in long-range path planning. The second is a class of medium range 77 GHz frequency modulated continuous wave (FMCW) radar with two axis mirror scanners which is capable of producing high resolution threedimensional (3D) imagery out to 500 m at a reasonably slow frame rate. The final class also operates using the FMCW principle, but at 94 GHz, to produce high resolution 2D and 3D images out to about 50 m at a much higher update rate. These shorter range sensors may be used to determine the traversability of the local terrain. The outputs produced by the different classes of radar are examined and the paper considers their advantages when compared to other sensors such as vision and scanning laser. Using radar images, the final section compiles rules for interpreting radar reflectivity images from a path-planning perspective. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] Horizontal resolution impact on short- and long-range forecast errorTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 649 2010Roberto Buizza Abstract The impact of horizontal resolution increases from spectral truncation T95 to T799 on the error growth of ECMWF forecasts is analysed. Attention is focused on instantaneous, synoptic-scale features represented by the 500 and 1000 hPa geopotential height and the 850 hPa temperature. Error growth is investigated by applying a three-parameter model, and improvements in forecast skill are assessed by computing the time limits when fractions of the forecast-error asymptotic value are reached. Forecasts are assessed both in a realistic framework against T799 analyses, and in a perfect-model framework against T799 forecasts. A strong sensitivity to model resolution of the skill of instantaneous forecasts has been found in the short forecast range (say up to about forecast day 3). But sensitivity has shown to become weaker in the medium range (say around forecast day 7) and undetectable in the long forecast range. Considering the predictability of ECMWF operational, high-resolution T799 forecasts of the 500 hPa geopotential height verified in the realistic framework over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the long-range time limit ,(95%) is 15.2 days, a value that is one day shorter than the limit computed in the perfect-model framework. Considering the 850 hPa temperature verified in the realistic framework, the time limit ,(95%) is 16.6 days for forecasts verified in the realistic framework over the NH (cold season), 14.1 days over the SH (warm season) and 20.6 days over the Tropics. Although past resolution increases have been providing continuously better forecasts especially in the short forecast range, this investigation suggests that in the future, although further increases in resolution are expected to improve the forecast skill in the short and medium forecast range, simple resolution increases without model improvements would bring only very limited improvements in the long forecast range. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The ERA-40 re-analysisTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 612 2005S. M. Uppala Abstract ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions. The observing system changed considerably over this re-analysis period, with assimilable data provided by a succession of satellite-borne instruments from the 1970s onwards, supplemented by increasing numbers of observations from aircraft, ocean-buoys and other surface platforms, but with a declining number of radiosonde ascents since the late 1980s. The observations used in ERA-40 were accumulated from many sources. The first part of this paper describes the data acquisition and the principal changes in data type and coverage over the period. It also describes the data assimilation system used for ERA-40. This benefited from many of the changes introduced into operational forecasting since the mid-1990s, when the systems used for the 15-year ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis were implemented. Several of the improvements are discussed. General aspects of the production of the analyses are also summarized. A number of results indicative of the overall performance of the data assimilation system, and implicitly of the observing system, are presented and discussed. The comparison of background (short-range) forecasts and analyses with observations, the consistency of the global mass budget, the magnitude of differences between analysis and background fields and the accuracy of medium-range forecasts run from the ERA-40 analyses are illustrated. Several results demonstrate the marked improvement that was made to the observing system for the southern hemisphere in the 1970s, particularly towards the end of the decade. In contrast, the synoptic quality of the analysis for the northern hemisphere is sufficient to provide forecasts that remain skilful well into the medium range for all years. Two particular problems are also examined: excessive precipitation over tropical oceans and a too strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, both of which are pronounced in later years. Several other aspects of the quality of the re-analyses revealed by monitoring and validation studies are summarized. Expectations that the ,second-generation' ERA-40 re-analysis would provide products that are better than those from the firstgeneration ERA-15 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses are found to have been met in most cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2005. The contributions of N. A. Rayner and R. W. Saunders are Crown copyright. [source] Summary of recommendations of the first workshop on Postprocessing and Downscaling Atmospheric Forecasts for Hydrologic Applications held at Météo-France, Toulouse, France, 15,18 June 2009ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 2 2010John Schaake Abstract Hydrologists are increasingly using numerical weather forecasting products as an input to their hydrological models. These products are often generated on relatively coarse scales compared with hydrologically relevant basin units and suffer systematic biases that may have considerable impact when passed through the nonlinear hydrological filters. Therefore, the data need processing before they can be used in hydrological applications. This manuscript summarises discussions and recommendations of the first workshop on Postprocessing and Downscaling Atmospheric Forecasts for Hydrologic Applications held at Meteo France, Toulouse, France, 15,18 June 2008. The recommendations were developed by work groups that considered the following three areas of ensemble prediction: (1) short range (0,2 days), (2) medium range (3 days to 2 weeks), and (3) sub-seasonal and seasonal (beyond 2 weeks). Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Use of medium-range ensembles at the Met Office 2: Applications for medium-range forecastingMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 3 2002M V Young The term ,medium range' is taken to refer to forecasts for lead times ranging from about 2 or 3 days ahead up to about 10 days ahead. A wide variety of numerical model products are available to the forecaster nowadays, and one of the most important of these is the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). This paper shows how forecasters at the Met Office use these products, in particular the EPS, in an operational environment in the production of medium-range forecasts for a variety of customers, and illustrates some of the techniques involved. Particular reference is made to the PREVIN post-processing system for the EPS which is described in the companion paper by Legg et al. (2002). Forecast products illustrated take the form of synoptic charts (produced primarily via Field Modification software), text guidance and other graphical formats. The probabilistic approach to forecasting is discussed with reference to various examples, in particular the application of the EPS in providing early warnings of severe weather for which risk assessment is increasingly important. A central theme of this paper is the vital role played by forecasters in interpreting the output from the models in terms of the likely weather elements, and using the EPS to help assess confidence levels for a particular forecast as well as possible alternative synoptic evolutions. Verification statistics are presented which demonstrate how the EPS helps the forecaster to add value to the wide range of individual deterministic model products and that furthermore, the forecaster can improve upon many probabilistic products derived directly from the ensemble. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] | ||||||||||