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Markets Hypothesis (market + hypothesis)
Kinds of Markets Hypothesis Selected AbstractsWill only an earthquake shake up economics?INTERNATIONAL LABOUR REVIEW, Issue 2 2010Ronald SCHETTKAT Abstract. "Natural rate theory", the Efficient Market Hypothesis and its labour market application dominated interpretations of economic trends and policy prescriptions from the 1970s onwards, with their views of public policy and regulation as distorting otherwise well-functioning free markets. The upheaval of the current crisis is shaking these theories to the core. In this context, Schettkat examines European experience from the 1990s onwards and shows the theories to be unsubstantiated: high unemployment persisted post-recession despite structural reforms to labour market institutions, and the resumption of economic growth was hindered by then-dominant deflationary monetary and fiscal policies inspired by these theories. [source] The Global Financial Crisis and the Efficient Market Hypothesis: What Have We Learned?JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 4 2009Ray Ball The sharp economic downturn and turmoil in the financial markets, commonly referred to as the "global financial crisis," has spawned an impressive outpouring of blame. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH),the idea that competitive financial markets exploit all available information when setting security prices,has been singled out for particular attention. Like all successful theories, the EMH has major limitations, even as it continues to provide the foundation for not only past accomplishment, but future advances in the field of finance. Despite the theory's undoubted limitations, the claim that it is responsible for the current worldwide crisis seems wildly exaggerated. This essay shows the misreading of the theory and logical inconsistencies involved in popular arguments that EMH played a significant role in (1) the formation of the real estate and stock market bubbles, (2) investment practitioners' miscalculation of risks, and (3) the failure of regulators to recognize the bubbles and avert the crisis. At the same time, the author argues that the collapse of Lehman Brothers and other large financial institutions, far from resulting from excessive faith in efficient markets, reflects a failure to heed the lessons of efficient markets. In the author's words, "To me, Lehman's demise conclusively demonstrates that, in a competitive capital market, if you take massive risky positions financed with extraordinary leverage, you are bound to lose big one day,no matter how large and venerable you are." Finally, behavioral finance, widely considered as challenging and even supplanting efficient markets theory, is viewed in this article as complementing if not reinforcing efficient markets theory. As the author says, "it takes a theory to beat a theory." Behavioralism, for all its important contributions to finance literature, is described as not a theory but rather "a collection of ideas and results", one that depends for its existence on the theory of efficient markets. [source] Adolescents' formal employment and school enrollment: Effects of state welfare policiesJOURNAL OF POLICY ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2004Lingxin Hao Variations in state welfare policies in the reform era may affect adolescents through two mechanisms: A competing labor market hypothesis posits that stringent state welfare policies may reduce adolescent employment; and a signaling hypothesis posits that stringent welfare policies may promote enrollment. To test these hypotheses, we use a dynamic joint model of adolescents' school enrollment and formal employment, separating state welfare policies from non-welfare state policies, state labor market conditions, and unobserved state characteristics. Longitudinal data from the NLSY97 on adolescents aged 14 to 18 and various state data sources over the period 1994,1999 support the competing labor market effect but not the signaling effect. In particular, lower-income dropouts suffer more severely from fewer labor market opportunities when state welfare policies are more stringent, which indicates that welfare reform may compromise work opportunities for lower-income dropouts. © 2004 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management. [source] Linking Product Development Outcomes to Market Valuation of the Firm: The Case of the U.S. Pharmaceutical Industry,THE JOURNAL OF PRODUCT INNOVATION MANAGEMENT, Issue 5 2004Anurag Sharma The purpose of this research was to examine empirically the effects of new product development outcomes on overall firm performance. To do so, first product development and finance literature were connected to develop three testable hypotheses. Next, an event study was conducted in order to explore whether the changes in the stock market valuation of firms are influenced by the outcomes of efforts to develop new products. The pharmaceutical industry was chosen as the empirical context for the present study's analysis largely because the gate-keeping role played by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) provides a specific event date on which to focus the event study methodology. As such, this study's events were dates of public announcements of the FDA decisions to approve or to reject the New Drug Applications submitted by the sponsoring firms. Consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, this study's results show that market valuations are responsive strongly and cleanly to the success or failure of new product development efforts. Hence, one of this study's key results suggests that financial markets may be attuned sharply to product development outcomes in publicly traded firms. This study also finds that financial market losses from product development failures were much larger in magnitude than financial market gains from product development successes,indicating an asymmetry in the response of financial markets to the success and failure of new product development efforts. Hence, another implication of this study's results is that managers should factor in a substantial risk premium when considering substantial new development projects. The present study's results also imply that managers should refrain from hyping new products and perhaps even should restrain the enthusiasm that the financial community may build before the product fully is developed. The effect on firm value is severe when expectations about an anticipated new product are not fulfilled. Managers in effect should take care to build reasonable and realistic expectations about potential new products. [source] Automated generation of new knowledge to support managerial decision-making: case study in forecasting a stock marketEXPERT SYSTEMS, Issue 4 2004Se-Hak Chun Abstract: The deluge of data available to managers underscores the need to develop intelligent systems to generate new knowledge. Such tools are available in the form of learning systems from artificial intelligence. This paper explores how the novel tools can support decision-making in the ubiquitous managerial task of forecasting. For concreteness, the methodology is examined in the context of predicting a financial index whose chaotic properties render the time series difficult to predict. The study investigates the circumstances under which enough new knowledge is extracted from temporal data to overturn the efficient markets hypothesis. The efficient markets hypothesis precludes the possibility of anticipating in financial markets. More precisely, the markets are deemed to be so efficient that the best forecast of a price level for the subsequent period is precisely the current price. Certain anomalies to the efficient market premise have been observed, such as calendar effects. Even so, forecasting techniques have been largely unable to outperform the random walk model which corresponds to the behavior of prices under the efficient markets hypothesis. This paper tests the validity of the efficient markets hypothesis by developing knowledge-based tools to forecast a market index. The predictions are examined across several horizons: single-period forecasts as well as multiple periods. For multiperiod forecasts, the predictive methodology takes two forms: a single jump from the current period to the end of the forecast horizon, and a multistage web of forecasts which progresses systematically from one period to the next. These models are first evaluated using neural networks and case-based reasoning, and are then compared against a random walk model. The computational models are examined in the context of forecasting a composite for the Korean stock market. [source] Organizational Form and the Economic Impact of Corporate New Product StrategiesJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 1-2 2008Sheng-Syan Chen Abstract:, This paper examines the role of organizational form in explaining the economic impact of corporate new product strategies. I find that the wealth effects associated with the announcements of new product introductions are more favorable for introducing firms with focused activities than for those with diversified activities. The results hold even after controlling for other factors suggested in the literature that could affect the value of new product introductions. The findings in this study suggest that the efficient investment hypothesis dominates the internal capital markets hypothesis in terms of the net economic impact of new product introductions on the introducing firms. [source] Real estate and corporate valuation: an asset pricing perspectiveMANAGERIAL AND DECISION ECONOMICS, Issue 7 2001Liow Kim Hiang Property is a significant asset in the balance sheets of some Singapore industrial/commerce firms and hotel corporations. In this research, we take on the task of examining the relationship between real estate and stock market valuation of these business firms from an asset pricing perspective. Specifically, the real estate sensitivity of ,property-intensive', non-real estate stocks is investigated in both a three-index (market, sector and property) of stock returns and in an arbitrage pricing theory (APT) framework. The APT model is further recast as a multivariate non-linear regression model with across-equation restrictions. Using weekly returns on ,property-intensive' stocks in the period 1989,1998 and three shorter-sample periods, iterated non-linear seemingly regression techniques (ITNSUR) are employed to obtain joint estimates of stock sensitivities and their associated APT risk ,prices'. The ,real estate' sensitivity is found to be systematic and priced in the APT sense of corporations being paid an ex ante premium for bearing property market risk in investing and owning properties in two of the three sample periods (1989,1991, 1992,1994). The empirical results provide some support that property is a factor in corporate valuation, and is broadly consistent with the efficient markets hypothesis. The implications for portfolio and corporate management are examined. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||