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Management Scenarios (management + scenario)
Kinds of Management Scenarios Selected AbstractsThe western corn rootworm (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera): a new maize pest threatening EuropeEPPO BULLETIN, Issue 3 2001H. K. Berger The western corn rootworm Diabrotica virgifera virgifera is one of the most dangerous pests in maize in the USA. For many years, US growers have had to control this pest in maize fields by soil treatment or spraying. Ten years ago, this pest was also ,imported' into Europe. It was the job of the plant protection advisers and officials to inform endangered countries about the appearance of this pest, to develop control strategies for Europe and to establish research programmes to prevent further spread. This paper presents the history of this pest in Europe, its biology, the situation in 2001 and corn rootworm management scenarios for the future. [source] Neural network models to predict cation exchange capacity in arid regions of IranEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF SOIL SCIENCE, Issue 4 2005M. Amini Summary Design and analysis of land-use management scenarios requires detailed soil data. When such data are needed on a large scale, pedotransfer functions (PTFs) could be used to estimate different soil properties. Because existing regression-based PTFs for estimating cation exchange capacity (CEC) do not, in general, apply well to arid areas, this study was conducted (i) to evaluate the existing models and (ii) to develop neural network-based PTFs for predicting CEC in Aridisols of Isfahan in central Iran. As most researches have found a significant correlation between CEC and soil organic matter content (OM) and clay content, we also used these two variables for modelling of CEC. We tested several published PTFs and developed two neural network algorithms using multilayer perceptron and general regression neural networks based on a set of 170 soil samples. The data set was divided into two subsets for calibration and testing of the models. In general, the neural network-based models provided more reliable predictions than the regression-based PTFs. [source] Spatially explicit fisheries simulation models for policy evaluationFISH AND FISHERIES, Issue 4 2005Dominique Pelletier Abstract This paper deals with the design of modelling tools suitable for investigating the consequences of alternative policies on the dynamics of resources and fisheries, such as the evaluation of marine protected areas (MPA). We first review the numerous models that have been developed for this purpose, and compare them from several standpoints: population modelling, exploitation modelling and management measure modelling. We then present a generic fisheries simulation model, Integration of Spatial Information for FISHeries simulation (ISIS-Fish). This spatially explicit model allows quantitative policy screening for fisheries with mixed-species harvests. It may be used to investigate the effects of combined management scenarios including a variety of policies: total allowable catch (TAC), licenses, gear restrictions, MPA, etc. Fisher's response to management may be accounted for by means of decision rules conditioned on population and exploitation parameters. An application to a simple example illustrates the relevance of this kind of tool for policy screening, particularly in the case of mixed fisheries. Finally, the reviewed models and ISIS-Fish are discussed and confronted in the light of the underlying assumptions and model objectives. In the light of this discussion, we identify desirable features for fisheries simulation models aimed at policy evaluation, and particularly MPA evaluation. [source] Restoration options for potential persistence of submersed aquatic vegetation: combining ecological, hydrodynamic and sediment transport modellingFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2008ELLY P. H. BEST Summary 1. Restoration of shallow turbid lakes to promote growth of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) requires knowledge of the environmental factors affecting SAV growth and persistence, and a means to predict the success of SAV reestablishment under different management scenarios to improve these environmental conditions. We used a dynamic ecological modelling approach relating SAV responses to changes in physical and chemical conditions, with information on water level, flow and transparency being provided by hydrodynamic and sediment transport models. 2. The potential persistence of Vallisneria americana was similar under simulated environmental conditions in 1946 and in 1954, as was the potential persistence of Potamogeton pectinatus, indicating that the disappearance of V. americana from Peoria Lake (U.S.A.) previously attributed to an extended spring flood in 1954, may have been related to the combined effects of changes in water level, flow and water transparency as well as possibly other factors. 3. Recent environmental conditions (for 2000) proved not to be conducive for the colonization and persistence potential of V. americana, but would allow colonization by P. pectinatus. The construction of a hypothetical levee along the eastern descending line of the navigation channel in Upper Peoria Lake, which was expected to reduce fetch- and navigation-related turbidity, did not improve the situation for V. americana and overall deteriorated the situation for P. pectinatus. Thus, such a hydraulic alteration, generally considered as beneficial for SAV restoration, may not always be successful. 4. The results of the simulations indicated that the environmental conditions for potential persistence in Peoria Lake were generally less favourable for V. americana than for P. pectinatus. Measures suggested to restore SAV communities in such a lake should aim at reducing concentrations of total suspended solids at the point of inflow by a factor of three to four and limiting fetch- and navigation-related resuspension. [source] Environmental and economic analysis of the fully integrated biorefineryGCB BIOENERGY, Issue 5 2009ELIZABETH D. SENDICH Abstract Cellulosic biofuel systems have the potential to significantly reduce the environmental impact of the world's transportation energy requirements. However, realizing this potential will require systems level thinking and scale integration. Until now, we have lacked modeling tools for studying the behavior of integrated cellulosic biofuel systems. In this paper, we describe a new research tool, the Biorefinery and Farm Integration Tool (BFIT) in which the production of fuel ethanol from cellulosic biomass is integrated with crop and animal (agricultural) production models. Uniting these three subsystems in a single combined model has allowed, for the first time, basic environmental and economic analysis of biomass production, possible secondary products, fertilizer production, and bioenergy production across various regions of the United States. Using BFIT, we simulate cellulosic ethanol production embedded in realistic agricultural landscapes in nine locations under a collection of farm management scenarios. This combined modeling approach permits analysis of economic profitability and highlights key areas for environmental improvement. These results show the advantages of introducing integrated biorefinery systems within agricultural landscapes. This is particularly true in the Midwest, which our results suggest is a good setting for the cellulosic ethanol industry. Specifically, results show that inclusion of cellulosic biofuel systems into existing agriculture enhances farm economics and reduces total landscape emissions. Model results also indicate a limited ethanol price effect from increased biomass transportation distance. Sensitivity analysis using BFIT revealed those variables having the strongest effects on the overall system performance, namely: biorefinery size, switchgrass yield, and biomass farm gate price. [source] Erosion and Nutrient Loss on Sloping Land under Intense Cultivation in Southern VietnamGEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, Issue 1 2008NGUYEN VAN DE Abstract To help improve the well-being of the local people, a joint Vietnamese-UK team set out to establish a way of estimating soil and nutrient losses under different land management scenarios, using field data extrapolated through remote sensing and GIS, to obtain catchment-wide estimates of the impact of land cover change. Immigration from remote provinces to the Dong Phu District of Binh Phuóc Province, about 120 km north of Ho Chi Minh City, has led to disruption of soil surface stability on easily eroded clayey sandstones, creating rapid nutrient depletion that affects crop yields and siltation in the channel of the Rach Rat river downstream. The poor farmers of the areas see crop yields drop dramatically after two or three years of cultivation due to the fertility decline. Soil loss varies dramatically between wet season and dry season and with ground cover. Erosion bridge measurements showed a mean loss of 85.2 t ha,1 y,1 under cassava saplings with cashew nuts, 43.3 t ha,1 y,1 on uncultivated land and 41.7 t ha,1 y,1 under mature cassava. The rates of erosion were higher than those reported in many other parts of Vietnam, reflecting the high erodibility of the friable sandy soils on the steep side-slopes of the Rach Rat catchment. However, although the actual measurements provide better soil loss data than estimates based on the parameters of soil loss equations, a large number of measurement sites is needed to provide adequate coverage of the crop and slope combinations in this dissected terrain for good prediction using GIS and remote sensing. [source] Stemwood volume increment changes in European forests due to climate change,a simulation study with the EFISCEN modelGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2002Gert-Jan Nabuurs Abstract This paper presents the results of a modelling study of future net annual increment changes in stemwood of European forests owing to climate change. Seven process-based growth models were applied to 14 representative forest sites across Europe under one climate change scenario. The chosen scenario was the HadCM2 run, based on emission scenario IS92a, and resulted in an increase in mean temperature of 2.5 °C between 1990 and 2050, and an increase in annual precipitation of 5,15%. The information from those runs was incorporated in a transient way in a large-scale forest resource scenario model, EFISCEN (European forest information scenario). European scale forest resource projections were made for 28 countries covering 131.7 million ha of forest under two management scenarios for the period until 2050. The results showed that net annual increments in stemwood of European forests under climate change will further increase with an additional 0.9 m3 ha,1 y,1 in 2030 compared to the ongoing increase under a current climate scenario, i.e. an extra 18% increase. After 2030 the extra increment increase is reduced to 0.79 m3 ha,1 y,1 in 2050. Under climate change, absolute net annual increments will increase from the present 4.95, on average for Europe, to 5.93 m3 ha,1 y,1 in 2025. After 2025, increments in all scenarios start to decline owing to ageing of the forest and the high growing stocks being reached. The results of the present study are surrounded by large uncertainties. These uncertainties are caused by unknown emissions in the future, unknown extent of climate change, uncertainty in process-based models, uncertainty in inventory data, and uncertainty in inventory projection. Although the results are thus not conclusive, climate change may lead to extra felling opportunities in European forests of 87 million m3y,1. Because Europe's forests are intensively managed already, management may adapt to climate change relatively easily. However, this study also indicates that climate change may lead to a faster build-up of growing stocks. That may create a less stable forest resource in terms of risks to storm damage. [source] Ground Water Sustainability: Methodology and Application to the North China PlainGROUND WATER, Issue 6 2008Jie Liu This article analyzes part of a ground water flow system in the North China Plain (NCP) subject to severe overexploitation and rapid depletion. A transient ground water flow model was constructed and calibrated to quantify the changes in the flow system since the predevelopment 1950s. The flow model was then used in conjunction with an optimization code to determine optimal pumping schemes that improve ground water management practices. Finally, two management scenarios, namely, urbanization and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, were evaluated for their potential impacts on the ground water resources in the study area. Although this study focuses on the NCP, it illustrates a general modeling framework for analyzing the sustainability, or the lack thereof, of ground water flow systems driven by similar hydrogeologic and economic conditions. The numerical simulation is capable of quantifying the various components of the overall flow budget and evaluating the impacts of different management scenarios. The optimization modeling allows the determination of the maximum "sustainable pumping" that satisfies a series of prescribed constraints. It can also be used to minimize the economic costs associated with ground water development and management. Furthermore, since the NCP is one of the most water scarce and economically active regions in the world, the conclusions and insights from this study are of general interest and international significance. [source] The Water Crisis in the Gaza Strip: Prospects for ResolutionGROUND WATER, Issue 5 2005E. Weinthal Israel and the Palestinian Authority share the southern Mediterranean coastal aquifer. Long-term overexploitation in the Gaza Strip has resulted in a decreasing water table, accompanied by the degradation of its water quality. Due to high levels of salinity and nitrate and boron pollution, most of the ground water is inadequate for both domestic and agricultural consumption. The rapid rate of population growth in the Gaza Strip and dependence upon ground water as a single water source present a serious challenge for future political stability and economic development. Here, we integrate the results of geochemical studies and numerical modeling to postulate different management scenarios for joint management between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. The chemical and isotopic data show that most of the salinity phenomena in the Gaza Strip are derived from the natural flow of saline ground water from Israel toward the Gaza Strip. As a result, the southern coastal aquifer does not resemble a classic "upstream-downstream" dispute because Israel's pumping of the saline ground water reduces the salinization rates of ground water in the Gaza Strip. Simulation of different pumping scenarios using a monolayer, hydrodynamic, two-dimensional model (MARTHE) confirms the hypothesis that increasing pumping along the Gaza Strip border combined with a moderate reduction of pumping within the Gaza Strip would improve ground water quality within the Gaza Strip. We find that pumping the saline ground water for a source of reverse-osmosis desalination and then supplying the desalinated water to the Gaza Strip should be an essential component of a future joint management strategy between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. [source] Modelling hydrological management for the restoration of acidified floating fensHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 20 2005Stefan C. Dekker Abstract Wetlands show a large decline in biodiversity. To protect and restore this biodiversity, many restoration projects are carried out. Hydrology in wetlands controls the chemical and biological processes and may be the most important factor regulating wetland function and development. Hydrological models may be used to simulate these processes and to evaluate management scenarios for restoration. HYDRUS2D, a combined saturated,unsaturated groundwater flow and transport model, is presented. This simulates near-surface hydrological processes in an acidified floating fen, with the aim to evaluate the effect of hydrological restoration in terms of conditions for biodiversity. In the acidified floating fen in the nature reserve Ilperveld (The Netherlands), a trench system was dug for the purpose of creating a runoff channel for acid rainwater in wet periods and to enable circum-neutral surface water to enter the fen in dry periods. The model is calibrated against measured conductivity values for a 5 year period. From the model simulations, it was found that lateral flow in the floating raft is limited. Furthermore, the model shows that the best management option is a combination of trenches and inundation, which gave the best soil water quality in the root zone. It is concluded that hydrological models can be used for the calculation of management scenarios in restoration projects. The combined saturated,unsaturated model concept used in this paper is able to incorporate the governing hydrological processes in the wetland root zones. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Advances in the application of the SWAT model for water resources managementHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 3 2005R. Jayakrishnan Abstract Developments in computer technology have revolutionized the study of hydrologic systems and water resources management. Several computer-based hydrologic/water quality models have been developed for applications in hydrologic modelling and water resources studies. Distributed parameter models, necessary for basin-scale studies, have large input data requirements. Geographic information systems (GIS) and model,GIS interfaces aid the efficient creation of input data files required by such models. One such model available for the water resources professional is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a distributed parameter model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture. This paper describes some recent advances made in the application of SWAT and the SWAT,GIS interface for water resources management. Four case studies are presented. The Hydrologic Unit Model for the United States (HUMUS) project used SWAT to conduct a national-scale analysis of the effect of management scenarios on water quantity and quality. Integration of the SWAT model with rainfall data available from the WSR-88D radar network helps us to incorporate the spatial variability of rainfall into the modelling process. This study demonstrates the usefulness of radar rainfall data in distributed hydrologic studies and the potential of SWAT for application in flood analysis and prediction. A hydrologic modelling study of the Sondu river basin in Kenya using SWAT indicates the potential for application of the model in African watersheds and points to the need for development of better model input data sets in Africa, which are critical for detailed water resources studies. The application of SWAT for water quality analysis in the Bosque river basin, Texas demonstrates the strength of the model for analysing different management scenarios to minimize point and non-point pollution, and its potential for application in total maximum daily load (TMDL) studies. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] New Directions in Natural Resource Management The Offer of Actor-Network TheoryIDS BULLETIN, Issue 4 2001Nathalie A. Steins Summaries The article offers theoretical insights from Actor-Network Theory (ANT) as to how natural resource management (NRM) perspectives might be enhanced. ANT asks us to abolish the conventional sociological practice of studying phenomena in terms of predefined categories and principles, as they hinder our analysis of how the stakeholders involved construct resource management processes and the way these constructions are used. In this analytical process, any (uncertain) outcome of NRM is regarded as an effect of the interplay amongst the different stakes in the resource and the way stakeholders continuously mobilise social and material resources in order to achieve their goals. Only by analysing how certain outcomes have been achieved can we develop our understanding of the dynamics and uncertainties involved in NRM. The article uses empirical examples from coastal management scenarios to illustrate these theoretical points. [source] How Do You Assess a Manager's Decision-Making Abilities?INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SELECTION AND ASSESSMENT, Issue 2 2000The Use of Situational Inventories Decision-making capabilities are absolutely crucial to a manager. Unfortunately, existing methods of assessing managers in this area for selection and development purposes (in-tray exercises, situational interviews, ability tests, etc.) leave a lot to be desired. This article focuses on an alternative for assessing managerial decision making , the situational inventory , and presents research findings and information on practical applications. Detailed findings are also presented for ,Scenarios', the UK's first published situational measure of managerial judgement. Situational inventories work by presenting participants with realistic but difficult real-life management scenarios. Each scenario is accompanied by a number of possible responses which participants rate for effectiveness in dealing with the scenario. Participants' ratings are then scored against a set of ideal answers, producing an assessment of current decision-making ability. Decision-making ability can be developed in individuals, making feedback invaluable to participants. Evidence that has been accumulating in the United States and the UK for at least 15 years is presented to support the general situational inventory approach. Additionally, specific evidence is presented for ,Scenarios'. It was found to correlate significantly with a number of managerial performance and responsibility indicators while appearing to be largely separate from existing psychometric (ability and personality) tests. [source] Using GIS to relate small mammal abundance and landscape structure at multiple spatial extents: the northern flying squirrel in Alberta, CanadaJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2005MATTHEW WHEATLEY Summary 1It is common practice to evaluate the potential effects of management scenarios on animal populations using geographical information systems (GIS) that relate proximate landscape structure or general habitat types to indices of animal abundance. Implicit in this approach is that the animal population responds to landscape features at the spatial grain and extent represented in available digital map inventories. 2The northern flying squirrel Glaucomys sabrinus is of particular interest in North American forest management because it is known from the Pacific North-West as a habitat specialist, a keystone species of old-growth coniferous forest and an important disperser of hypogeous, mycorrhizal fungal spores. Using a GIS approach we tested whether the relative abundance of flying squirrel in northern Alberta, Canada, is related to old forest, conifer forest and relevant landscape features as quantified from management-based digital forest inventories. 3We related squirrel abundance, estimated through live trapping, to habitat type (forest composition: conifer, mixed-wood and deciduous) and landscape structure (stand height, stand age, stand heterogeneity and anthropogenic disturbance) at three spatial extents (50 m, 150 m and 300 m) around each site. 4Relative abundances of northern flying squirrel populations in northern and western Alberta were similar to those previously reported from other regions of North America. Capture rates were variable among sites, but showed no trends with respect to year or provincial natural region (foothills vs. boreal). 5Average flying squirrel abundance was similar in all habitats, with increased values within mixed-wood stands at large spatial extents (300 m) and within deciduous-dominated stands at smaller spatial extents (50 m). No relationship was found between squirrel abundance and conifer composition or stand age at any spatial extent. 6None of the landscape variables calculated from GIS forest inventories predicted squirrel abundance at the 50-m or 150-m spatial extents. However, at the 300-m spatial extent we found a negative, significant relationship between average stand height and squirrel abundance. 7Synthesis and applications. Boreal and foothill populations of northern flying squirrel in Canada appear unrelated to landscape composition at the relatively large spatial resolutions characteristic of resource inventory data commonly used for management and planning in these regions. Flying squirrel populations do not appear clearly associated with old-aged or conifer forests; rather, they appear as habitat generalists. This study suggests that northern, interior populations of northern flying squirrel are probably more related to stand-level components of forest structure, such as food, microclimate (e.g. moisture) and understorey complexity, variables not commonly available in large-scale digital map inventories. We conclude that the available digital habitat data potentially exclude relevant, spatially dependent information and could be used inappropriately for predicting the abundance of some species in management decision making. [source] Alternative Scenarios for Managing the Environmental Performance of a Service Sector CompanyJOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2006Seppo Junnila Summary This article presents a scenario analysis for a life-cycle model of service sector companies. The model is based on six case companies and it is applied to test the influence of 32 management scenarios. The scenarios simulate feasible options for environmental management measures in companies, and the life-cycle assessment method is used to model their relevance in terms of the total environmental impact of the company. The study found that the bulk of tested scenarios had only a minor influence on the total environmental impact of the company. Some individual management scenarios, though, turned out to have a major influence on the organization's environmental performance. The scenarios with greatest influence were those related to the procurement of electricity, building energy consumption, commuting vehicle mix, space usage efficiency, and refurbishment periods of the building. All of these management scenarios had an influence of more than 10% on the environmental impact of the model organization. [source] HYDROLOGIC IMPLICATIONS OF GREATER GROUND-WATER RECHARGE TO LAS VEGAS VALLEY, NEVADA,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 5 2000David J. Donovan ABSTRACT: Published estimates of natural recharge in Las Vegas Valley range between 21,000 and 35,000 acre-feet per year. This study examined the underlying assumptions of previous investigations and evaluated the altitude-precipitation relationships. Period-of-record averages from high altitude precipitation gages established in the 1940s through the 1990s, were used to determine strong local altitude-precipitation relationships that indicate new total precipitation and natural recharge amounts and a new spatial distribution of that recharge. This investigation calculated about 51,000 acre-feet per year of natural recharge in the Las Vegas Hydrographic Basin, with an additional 6,000 acre-feet per year from areas tributary to Las Vegas Valley, for a total of 57,000 acre-feet per year. The total amount of natural recharge is greater than estimates from earlier investigations and is consistent with a companion study of natural discharge, which estimated 53,000 acre-feet per year of outflow. The hydrologic implications of greater recharge in Las Vegas Valley infer a more accurate ground-water budget and a better understanding of ground-water recharge that will be represented in a ground-water model. Thus model based ground-water management scenarios will more realistically access impacts to the ground-water system. [source] Framework for surface water quality management on a river basin scale: Case study of Lake Iseo, Northern ItalyLAKES & RESERVOIRS: RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2001D. H. A. Al-Khudhairy Abstract River (DESERT) and lake (EVOLA) water quality models are used to simulate the influences of alternative water quality management scenarios on the quality of receiving surface waters in the Lake Iseo basin, Northern Italy. The scenarios are representative of the European Union Directive on Urban Waste Water Treatment (91/271/EEC) and of the regional authority's objective to reduce the total phosphorus loads from point sources entering Lake Iseo and to restore the lake as close as it is practically possible to its former natural qualitative state. Application of DESERT shows that the regional ,Water Clean Up Plan' can achieve similar reductions in total phosphorus concentrations in the basin's main river system, Oglio River, to the 91/271/EEC directive, but at notably lower economic costs. Application of EVOLA to Lake Iseo shows that it is not practical to achieve the regional authority's objective of a specific total phosphorus concentration in the lake by 2016. Instead, the results show that a more realistic, but higher, total phosphorus concentration can be achieved by 2016. The results of both modelling exercises indicate the usefulness of DESERT and EVOLA for comparing and assessing water quality management scenarios and for revising the regional authority's final objectives with regards to total phosphorus concentration in Lake Iseo, as well as the regional ,Water Clean Up Plan' for restoring and safeguarding the quality of the basin's surface waters. [source] Trophic mass balanced models and dynamic simulations of benthic communities from La Rinconada Marine Reserve off northern Chile: network properties and multispecies harvest scenario assessmentsAQUATIC CONSERVATION: MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS, Issue 1 2010Marco Ortiz Abstract 1.Mass balanced trophic models and dynamic simulations of two benthic ecological systems from La Rinconada Marine Reserve (Antofagasta Bay, SE Pacific) were constructed. 2.The scallop Argopecten purpuratus is the most important benthic resource in La Rinconada Marine Reserve, followed by the carnivorous snail Thais chocolata, and the filter-feeder bivalves Tagelus dombeii and Transennella pannosa. 3.Information on biomass, P/B ratios, catches, food spectrum, consumption, and dynamics of commercial and non-commercial species was obtained and examined using Ecopath with an Ecosim software package. 4.The bivalves A. purpuratus and T. dombeii represented the most abundant compartments in the studied subsystems. Of the carnivores, the snail T. chocolata was dominant, followed by the crabs Cancer spp. and the functional group of large epifauna. 5.The two subsystems presented similar values of system throughput. The mean trophic level of their fisheries also reached similar magnitudes (2.0), showing that the harvests in each system concentrated on secondary producers. Likewise, both subsystems presented similar A/C ratios (29.9 and 30.3), suggesting that they were immature. 6.The results obtained using mixed trophic impact (MTI) and Ecosim (increasing the fishing mortality Fi by four times) showed that only four species propagated the highest direct and indirect effects. Coincidentally, these species are the most economically important and the changes produced by the scallop A. purpuratus are noteworthy. 7.With regard to the system recovery time (SRT) estimates, only three species or functional groups presented the highest magnitudes, from highest to lowest: the sea star Luidia magallanica, the scallop A. purpuratus, and the crabs Cancer spp. 8.The topological keystone indexes of Jordán and Libralato had divergent results. According to Jordán's index, the keystone species were L. magallanica, Cancer spp., and detritus; whereas Libralato's index showed phytoplankton to be the keystone species. 9.Based on the results obtained, it is concluded that trophic mass balanced models and simulated management scenarios have considerable value for planning interventions and manipulations or for planning more sustainable management strategies in La Rinconada Marine Reserve. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Climate-driven fluctuations in surface-water availability and the buffering role of artificial pumping in an African savanna: Potential implication for herbivore dynamicsAUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 7 2007SIMON CHAMAILLÉ-JAMMES Abstract In arid and semiarid environments surface-water strongly constrains the distribution and abundance of large herbivores during the dry season. Surprisingly, we know very little about its variability in natural ecosystems. Here we used long-term data on the dry-season occurrence of water at individual waterholes to model the surface-water availability across Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe, under contrasted climatic and management scenarios. Without artificial pumping only 19.6% of the park occurred within 5 km of water under average climatic conditions. However surface-water availability was strongly influenced by annual rainfall, and over 20 years the variability of the surface area of the park occurring within 5 km of water was slightly larger than the variability of rainfall. This contrasts with the usual buffered response of vegetation production to rainfall fluctuations, and suggests that the variability in dry-season foraging range determined by surface-water availability could be the main mechanism regulating the population dynamics of large herbivores in this environment. Artificial pumping increased surface-water availability and reduced its variability over time. Because changes in surface-water availability could cause the greatest changes in forage availability for large herbivores, we urge ecologists to investigate and report on the variability of surface-water in natural ecosystems, particularly where rapid climate changes are expected. [source] Economic contribution of French serradella (Ornithopus sativus Brot.) pasture to integrated weed management in Western Australian mixed-farming systems: an application of compressed annealing,AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2009Graeme J. Doole Sowing phases of French serradella (Ornithopus sativus Brot.) pasture between extended cropping sequences in the Western Australian wheatbelt can sustain grain production through restoring soil fertility and reducing selective herbicide use. The objective of this article is to investigate the profitability of rotations involving this pasture under a variety of weed management scenarios to obtain greater insight into its value for mixed farming systems in this region. A stochastic search procedure, compressed annealing, is used to identify profitable sets of weed management strategies in a simulation model representing a large number of potential combinations of chemical and non-chemical forms of weed control. In contrast to a continuous-cropping sequence, the inclusion of a serradella phase in a rotation is profitable at high weed densities and with increasing levels of herbicide resistance. A single year of pasture in the rotation is optimal if resistance to Group A selective herbicides is present at the beginning of the planning horizon, but a three-year phase is required if resistance to multiple herbicide groups is observed. Sowing a serradella pasture twice over a two-year phase is also shown to be economically attractive given benefits of successive high weed kills. [source] Summative Assessment in Medicine: The Promise of Simulation for High-stakes EvaluationACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE, Issue 11 2008John R. Boulet PhD Abstract Throughout their careers, physicians are exposed to a wide array of assessments, including those aimed at evaluating knowledge, clinical skills, and clinical decision-making. While many of these assessments are used as part of formative evaluation activities, others are employed to establish competence and, as a byproduct, to promote patient safety. In the past 10 years, simulations have been successfully incorporated in a number of high-stakes physician certification and licensure exams. In developing these simulation-based assessments, testing organizations were able to promote novel test administration protocols, build enhanced assessment rubrics, advance sophisticated scoring and equating algorithms, and promote innovative standard-setting methods. Moreover, numerous studies have been conducted to identify potential threats to the validity of test score interpretations. As simulation technology expands and new simulators are invented, this groundbreaking work can serve as a basis for organizations to build or expand their summative assessment activities. Although there will continue to be logistical and psychometric problems, many of which will be specialty- or simulator-specific, past experience with performance-based assessments suggests that most challenges can be addressed through focused research. Simulation, whether it involves standardized patients (SPs), computerized case management scenarios, part-task trainers, electromechanical mannequins, or a combination of these methods, holds great promise for high-stakes assessment. [source] Further survey of Australian ophthalmologist's diabetic retinopathy management: did practice adhere to National Health and Medical Research Council guidelines?CLINICAL & EXPERIMENTAL OPHTHALMOLOGY, Issue 6 2010Joshua Yuen MPH Abstract Background:, To compare the self-reported management of diabetic retinopathy by Australian ophthalmologists with the 1997 National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) guidelines. Methods:, Self-reported cross-sectional survey of patterns of practice. Questionnaires were sent to all Australian ophthalmologists, comprising questions regarding professional details, diabetic retinopathy screening attitudes/practices and specific hypothetical management scenarios. Data were analysed using Chi-squared and adjusted logistic regression. Result:, 480 of the 751 (64%) eligible Australian ophthalmologists participated. The majority (80%, n = 376) reported they consistently reviewed patient's glycaemic control, but only 55% and 41% regularly reviewed blood pressure and serum cholesterol control, respectively. Ophthalmologists generally adhered to NHMRC-recommended screening intervals, although only 38% agreed with the guidelines relating to screening of pre-pubertal diabetic patients. Fluorescein angiogram was used more than recommended, especially for mild non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy where 45% of respondents used this investigation. Practice duration >15 years was associated with more regular fluorescein angiogram use (OR = 3.74; 95% CI: 2.53,5.53, P < 0.001). In the clinical scenarios where clinically significant macular oedema was concurrently present with cataract or proliferative diabetic retinopathy, >26% referred to retinal subspecialists for management; 85% of the remaining ophthalmologists performed macular laser first. Respondents with practice duration >15 years were 7.8 times (P = 0.001) more likely to perform cataract surgery first. Conclusion:, Diabetic retinopathy management guidelines were generally well followed by Australian ophthalmologists. However, areas of practice variation existed including frequent use of fluorescein angiogram. Significant proportion of practitioners referred diabetic patients to retinal subspecialists, who were more likely to adhere to guideline recommendations. Ophthalmologists with greater experience (>15 years) were more likely to employ practices differing from NHMRC recommendations. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||