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Long-term Rate (long-term + rate)
Selected AbstractsA quarter century of declining suspended sediment fluxes in the Mississippi River and the effect of the 1993 flood,HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 1 2010Arthur J. Horowitz Abstract Annual fluxes, flow-weighted concentrations and linear least squares trendline calculations for a number of long-term Mississippi River Basin (MRB) sampling sites covering 1981 through 2007, whilst somewhat ,noisy', display long-term patterns of decline. Annual flow-weighted concentration plots display the same long-term patterns of decline, but are less noisy because they reduce/eliminate variations due to interannual discharge differences. The declines appear greatest in the middle MRB, but also are evident elsewhere. The pattern for the lower Ohio River differs and may reflect ongoing construction at the Olmsted lock and dam that began in 1993 and currently is ongoing. The ,Great Flood of 1993' appears to have superimposed a step function (a sharp drop) on the long-term rate of decline in suspended sediment concentrations (SSC), annual fluxes and flow-weighted concentrations in the middle MRB at St Louis and Thebes, Missouri and Vicksburg, Mississippi, and in the lower MRB at St Francisville, Louisiana. Evidence for a step function at other sites is less substantial, but may have occurred. The step function appears to have resulted from losses in available (erodible) sediment, rather than to a reduction in discharge; hence, the MRB appears to be supply limited rather than discharge limited. These evaluations support the need for daily discharge and SSC data collections in the MRB to better address questions regarding long-term trends in sediment-related issues. This is apparent when the results for the Mississippi River at Thebes and St Louis sites are compared with those from other MRB sites where intensive (daily) data collections are lacking. Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The Structural Relation Between Mortgage and Market Interest RatesJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 9-10 2003Achla Marathe This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between primary and secondary mortgage markets and the short-term and long-term market interest rates. Using a series of monthly data on fixed rate mortgage rates and GNMA rates, we explore the dependence and speed of adjustment in these primary and secondary mortgage rates to each other as well as to the long and short-term government rates. The results indicate that residential mortgage rates in general, appear to follow the long-term rate and are not very sensitive to movements in the short-term interest rate. [source] Scale sensitivity of synthetic long-term vegetation time series derived through overlay of short-term field recordsJOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 4 2007Otto Wildi Abstract Questions: Is change in cover of dominant species driving the velocity of succession or is it species turnover (1)? Is the length of the time-step chosen in sampling affecting our recognition of the long-term rate of change (2)1 Location: 74 permanent plots located in the Swiss National Park, SE Switzerland, ca. 1900 m a.s.l. Methods: We superimpose several time-series from permanent plots to one single series solely based on compositional dissimilarity. As shown earlier (Wildi & Schütz 2000) this results in a synthetic series covering about 400 to 650 yr length. Continuous power transformation of cover-percentage scores is used to test if the dominance or the presence-absence of species is governing secondary succession from pasture to forest. The effect of time step length is tested by sub-samples of the time series. Results: Altering the weight of presence-absence versus dominance of species affects the emerging time frame, while altering time step length is uncritical. Where species turnover is fast, different performance scales yield similar results. When cover change in dominant species prevails, the solutions vary considerably. Ordinations reveal that the synthetic time series seek for shortest paths of the temporal pattern whereas in the real system longer lasting alternatives exist. Conclusions: Superimposing time series differs from the classical space-for-time substitution approach. It is a computation-based method to investigate temporal patterns of hundreds of years fitting between direct monitoring (usually limited to decades) and the analysis of proxy-data (for time spans of thousands of years and more). [source] Midurethral sling procedures for stress urinary incontinence in women over 80 years,,NEUROUROLOGY AND URODYNAMICS, Issue 7 2010Kobi Stav Abstract Aims To compare the safety and efficacy of midurethral sling surgery for management of urinary stress incontinence in women over 80 years versus younger women. Methods 1225 consecutive women with urodynamic stress incontinence had a synthetic midurethral sling (955 retropubic, 270 transobturator) at our institution between 1999 and 2007. Ninety one percent (n,=,1112) of the patients were interviewed via phone call with a structured questionnaire and were included in the analysis. The mean follow-up was 50,±,24 months (range 12,114). Comparison between elderly (,80 years, n,=,96) and younger patients (<80 years, n,=,1016) was performed. Results The overall subjective cure rate was 85% (elderly 81%, younger 85%, ,=,0.32). There was no significant difference in cure rate between retropubic and transobturator sling in the elderly group (82% vs. 79.3%, P,=,0.75). The bladder perforation rate was similar between the two groups (3%). The hospitalization time was significantly longer in the elderly (1.6,±,1.7 days vs. 0.7,±,1.1 days, P<0.001). However, major perioperative complications were uncommon (1%). Of the patients who had an isolated sling procedure, 37% of the elderly and 9% of the young patients failed their 1st trial of void (P,<,0.001). However, the long-term rate of voiding difficulty was similar between the two groups (elderly 8% vs. young 6%, P,=,0.21). The rate of de novo urge incontinence was similar between the two groups (7%). Conclusion Retropubic and transobturator slings in women older than 80 years are effective and safe but are associated with an increased risk of transient postoperative voiding difficulty. Neurourol. Urodynam. 29:1262,1266, 2010. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Implications of Singapore's CPF Scheme on Consumption Choices and Retirement IncomesPACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2001Kim-Lian Lim Singapore has a unique policy of allowing the use of mandatory social security contributions to finance homeownership. An intertemporal model of housing demand is employed to demonstrate analytically that the CPF scheme can distort an individual's intertemporal and intratemporal consumption choices, and induce Singaporeans to demand more housing than they would otherwise. The withdrawals for housing have also affected the adequacy of CPF balances for financing retirement. Pegging the rate of return on CPF balances to a long-term rate is the long-term solution to curbing excessive withdrawals for housing, and ensuring the adequacy of CPF savings for financing retirement. [source] A two-mean reverting-factor model of the term structure of interest ratesTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 11 2003Manuel Moreno This article presents a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates. It is assumed that default-free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long-term interest rate, and the spread (i.e., the difference) between the short-term (instantaneous) risk-free rate of interest and the long-term rate. Assuming that both factors follow a joint Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, a general bond pricing equation is derived. Closed-form expressions for prices of bonds and interest rate derivatives are obtained. The analytical formula for derivatives is applied to price European options on discount bonds and more complex types of options. Finally, empirical evidence of the model's performance in comparison with an alternative two-factor (Vasicek-CIR) model is presented. The findings show that both models exhibit a similar behavior for the shortest maturities. However, importantly, the results demonstrate that modeling the volatility in the long-term rate process can help to fit the observed data, and can improve the prediction of the future movements in medium- and long-term interest rates. So it is not so clear which is the best model to be used. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23: 1075,1105, 2003 [source] A Comparison of the Statistical Properties of Financial Variables in the USA, UK and Germany over the Business CycleTHE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 4 2000Elena Andreou This paper presents business cycle stylized facts for the US, UK and German economies. We examine whether financial variables (interest rates, stock market price indices, dividend yields and monetary aggregates) predict economic activity over the business cycle, and we investigate the nature of any non-linearities in these variables. Leading indicator properties are examined using cross-correlations for both the values of the variables and their volatilities. Our results imply that the most reliable leading indicator across the three countries is the interest rate term structure, although other variables also appear to be useful for specific countries. The volatilities of financial variables may also contain predictive information for production growth as well as production volatility. Non-linearities are uncovered for all financial series, especially in terms of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity effects. Strong evidence of mean non-linearity is also found for many financial series and this can be associated with business cycle asymmetries in the mean. This is the case for a number of American and British financial variables, especially interest rates, but the corresponding evidence for Germany is confined largely to the real long-term rate of interest. [source] Long-term Prognosis and Psychosocial Outcomes after Surgery for MTLEEPILEPSIA, Issue 12 2006Sophie Dupont Summary:,Purpose: To assess the seizure-freedom rates and self-perceived psychosocial changes associated with the long-term outcome of epilepsy surgery in patients with refractory medial temporal lobe epilepsy associated with hippocampal sclerosis. Methods: A standard questionnaire was given to 183 patients who underwent surgery between 1988 and 2004, and 110 were completed. Results: The mean duration of follow-up after surgery was 7 years, with a maximum of 17 years. The probability that patients were seizure-free after surgery was dependent on the definition of the seizure freedom. For the patients who were seizure-free since surgery (Engel's class Ia), the probability was 97.6% at 1 year after surgery, 85.2% at 2 years after surgery, 59.5% at 5 years after surgery, and 42.6% at 10 years after surgery. For the patients who still experienced rare disabling seizures after surgery but were seizure-free at least 1 year before the time of assessment, the probability was of 97.6% at 1 year after surgery, 95% at 2 years after surgery, 82.8% at 5 years after surgery, and 71.1% at 10 years after surgery. The psychosocial long-term outcome, as measured by indices of driving, employment, familial and social relationships, and marital status, was similar to the psychosocial short-term outcome. It did not depend on seizure freedom or on follow-up time interval and was not influenced statistically by seizure frequency in cases of persisting seizures. Most but not all patients noticed a substantial overall improvement in their psychosocial condition; 48% drove (increased by 7%), 47% improved (14% worsened) in their employment status, and 68% improved (5% worsened) in their familial and social relationships. Overall, 91% of patients were satisfied with the surgery, and 92% did not regret their decision. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that temporal lobe surgery has real long-term benefits. Two specific conclusions emerge: (a) the long-term rates of freedom from seizure depend on how seizure freedom is defined, and (b) the psychosocial long-term outcome does not change dramatically over years and does not depend on seizure freedom. [source] Regional GPS data confirm high strain accumulation prior to the 2000 June 4 Mw= 7.8 earthquake at southeast SumatraGEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL, Issue 3 2001G. W. Michel Summary Site velocities derived from repeated measurements in a regional GPS network in Southeast Asia help to constrain the motion of tectonic blocks as well as slip rates along major faults in the area. Using 3-D forward dislocation modelling, the influence of seismic elastic loading and unloading on the measured site motions are approximated. Results suggest that the northwestern Sunda arc is fully coupled seismogenically, whereas its eastern part along Java shows localized deformation. Higher horizontal velocity gradients than expected from the modelling of a fully coupled plate interface west of Manila in the Philippines suggest that deformation may be localized there. Assuming that geodetically derived convergence represents long-term rates, accumulated geodetic moments are compared to those derived using seismic data from 1977 to 2000 (Harvard CMT catalogue). If areas displaying localized deformation are dominated by creep processes, the largest difference between accumulated and seismically released deformation is located where the 2000 June 4 Mw = 7.8 Sumatra earthquake occurred. [source] On the Relationship Between Short- and Long-term Interest Rates,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2004Teruyoshi KobayashiArticle first published online: 13 DEC 200 This paper addresses issues regarding the relationship between short- and long-term interest rates. In the real world, an expansionary (contractionary) policy is normally followed by a fall (rise) in long-term rates. However, there exist exceptional cases in which short- and long-term rates move in opposite directions. This paper attempts to provide a formal explanation for such unusual phenomena using a variety of new Keynesian models. It turns out that the simultaneous occurrence of different economic shocks, to which the central bank should react, can explain this behaviour of long rates. [source] Long-Term Adjustment to Work-Related Low Back Pain: Associations with Socio-demographics, Claim Processes, and Post-Settlement AdjustmentPAIN MEDICINE, Issue 8 2009John T. Chibnall PhD ABSTRACT Objective., Predict long-term adjustment (pain intensity, pain-related catastrophizing, and pain-related disability) from socio-demographic, claim process, and post-settlement adjustment variables in a cohort of 374 Workers' Compensation low back claimants. Methods., Age- and gender-matched subsamples of African Americans and Caucasians were randomly selected for long-term follow-up (6 years post-settlement) from a larger, existing cohort of Workers' Compensation low back claimants in Missouri. Computer-assisted telephone interviews were used to assess pain, catastrophizing, and disability. Path analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to predict long-term adjustment from socio-demographic variables (race, gender, age, and socioeconomic status), Workers' Compensation claim process variables (surgery, diagnosis, claim duration, treatment costs, settlement awards, and disability rating), and adjustment at baseline. Results., Poorer long-term adjustment (higher levels of pain, catastrophizing, and pain-related disability) was significantly predicted by relatively poorer adjustment at baseline, lower socioeconomic status, and African American race. African American race associations were also mediated through lower socioeconomic status. Higher levels of occupational disability, as measured by long-term rates of unemployment and social security disability, were also predicted by African American race (in addition to age and claim process factors). Conclusion., Long-term adjustment to low back pain in this cohort of Workers' Compensation claimants was stable, relative to short-term adjustment soon after settlement. Long-term adjustment was worse for people of lower socioeconomic status, particularly for economically disadvantaged African Americans, suggesting the possibility of race- and class-based disparities in the Workers' Compensation system. [source] Long-term Callovian,Oxfordian sea-level changes and sedimentation in the Iberian carbonate platform (Jurassic, Spain): possible eustatic implicationsBASIN RESEARCH, Issue 2 2008Javier Ramajo ABSTRACT Facies analysis across the carbonate platform developed during the Callovian,Oxfordian in the northern Iberian basin (Jurassic, Northeast Spain) is used to characterize successive stages of sedimentary evolution, including palaeoenvironmental reconstructions showing the distribution of a wide spectrum of facies, from ferruginous oolitic, peloidal, spongiolithic to intraclastic. The studied successions consist of two long-term transgressive,regressive cycles bounded by a major unconformity with a major gap, comprising at least the upper Lamberti (Callovian) and Mariae (Oxfordian) Zones. Major transgressive peaks of these two cycles occurred at the end of the Early Callovian (late Gracilis Zone) and at the end of the Middle Oxfordian. The Callovian and Oxfordian successions were further divided into three and seven higher frequency cycles, respectively. The modelling of two sections (i.e. Ricla and Tosos) located 40 km apart in the more subsident open platform areas, allows the reconstruction of two curves showing a similar evolution of long-term sea-level changes that are in theory eustatic, though subject to uncertainties derived form the assumptions required for their construction. The changes affecting the northern Iberian basin seem to reflect nearly homogeneous subsidence (rates around 2 cm kyr,1) combined with possible eustatic changes including an Early Callovian rise, a fall at the middle Callovian,earliest Oxfordian (i.e. the Anceps,Mariae Zones), with average long-term rates around 2 cm kyr,1 (total fall of 40,60 m), a period of lowstand at the Early,Middle Oxfordian transition and a long-term rise at the Middle,Late Oxfordian transition (Transversarium and Bifurcatus Zones). Facies distribution across the Iberian platform indicates a progressive Middle,Late Callovian relative sea-level fall rather than a rapid relative sea-level fall at the end of the Callovian. After this falling episode, the progressive onlap over the swell areas during the Early Oxfordian and at the beginning of the Middle Oxfordian indicates a period of accommodation gain, which is explained by the combined effects of continuous subsidence across the platform and reduced sedimentation rates in spite of the possible eustatic lowstand. Eustatic lowstand, combined with other factors (ocean water circulation, volcanism) could help to explain the loss of carbonate production during the latest Callovian,Early Oxfordian, previous to the widespread eustatic rise and warning recorded at the onset of the Transversarium Zone (Middle Oxfordian). [source] Long-term data on the survival of patients with prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy in the prostate-specific antigen eraBJU INTERNATIONAL, Issue 1 2010Hendrik Isbarn Study Type , Therapy (case series) Level of Evidence 4 OBJECTIVE To examine the long-term rates of biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free survival, cancer-specific mortality (CSM)-free survival, and overall survival (OS) in patients with prostate cancer treated with open radical prostatectomy (RP) in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) era. PATIENTS AND METHODS The study comprised 436 patients who were treated with RP between 1992 and 1997 at our institution. None received adjuvant/salvage therapy in the absence of BCR. The BCR-free, CSM-free and OS rates were defined using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariable Cox-regression models were used to test the effect of age, preoperative PSA level, neoadjuvant hormonal therapy, pT stage, lymph node status, RP Gleason sum and surgical margin status on BCR. RESULTS The median follow-up of censored patients was 122, 128, and 132 months for, respectively, BCR-free, CSM-free and OS estimates. The 10-year event-free survival rates for the same endpoints were 60%, 94% and 86%, respectively. Preoperative PSA level, RP Gleason sum, pT stage, lymph node status, and surgical margin status were independent predictors of BCR (all adjusted P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS This study is the first to evaluate the long-term cancer control outcomes after RP from a European country in the PSA era. Our data indicate that RP provides excellent long-term survival rates in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer. Although ,40% of patients have BCR after 10 years of follow-up, the CSM rate after 10 years is as low as 6%. [source] | ||||||||||||||||