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Likely Outcome (likely + outcome)
Selected AbstractsDOES CRIME JUST MOVE AROUND THE CORNER?CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 3 2006A CONTROLLED STUDY OF SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT AND DIFFUSION OF CRIME CONTROL BENEFITS Recent studies point to the potential theoretical and practical benefits of focusing police resources on crime hot spots. However, many scholars have noted that such approaches risk displacing crime or disorder to other places where programs are not in place. Although much attention has been paid to the idea of displacement, methodological problems associated with measuring it have often been overlooked. We try to fill these gaps in measurement and understanding of displacement and the related phenomenon of diffusion of crime control benefits. Our main focus is on immediate spatial displacement or diffusion of crime to areas near the targeted sites of an intervention. Do focused crime prevention efforts at places simply result in a movement of offenders to areas nearby targeted sites,"do they simply move crime around the corner"? Or, conversely, will a crime prevention effort focusing on specific places lead to improvement in areas nearby,what has come to be termed a diffusion of crime control benefits? Our data are drawn from a controlled study of displacement and diffusion in Jersey City, New Jersey. Two sites with substantial street-level crime and disorder were targeted and carefully monitored during an experimental period. Two neighboring areas were selected as "catchment areas" from which to assess immediate spatial displacement or diffusion. Intensive police interventions were applied to each target site but not to the catchment areas. More than 6,000 20-minute social observations were conducted in the target and catchment areas. They were supplemented by interviews and ethnographic field observations. Our findings indicate that, at least for crime markets involving drugs and prostitution, crime does not simply move around the corner. Indeed, this study supports the position that the most likely outcome of such focused crime prevention efforts is a diffusion of crime control benefits to nearby areas. [source] Does an employer training levy work?FISCAL STUDIES, Issue 2 2002Britain, The incidence of, returns to adult vocational training in France Abstract We examine two different policy regimes towards continuing vocational training for the adult workforce: policy in France has been interventionist, using an employer training levy since the 1970s, whereas British policy has relied largely on individual initiatives for training investment by employers and workers. We begin with a review of the theory of vocational training, indicating why market failure and underprovision are the likely outcome and signalling types of corrective policy that might be adopted. We set up hypotheses about the likely impact of policy in France relative to Britain to provide a framework for evaluation. We present a detailed comparison of the two systems in observed training incidence and the returns to training captured by workers and employers, drawing on a wide range of econometric studies. We conclude with an assessment of the employer training levy in France and suggest ways it could be modified if adopted in Britain. [source] More aspiration than achievement?HEALTH & SOCIAL CARE IN THE COMMUNITY, Issue 6 2006Children's complaints, advocacy in health services in Wales Abstract The present paper reports on key results from a government-funded survey of all National Health Service trusts, local health boards and community health councils in Wales, which was conducted in 2004,2005 to identify the characteristics of complaints involving children, and the use of professional advocacy services in these complaints and their role in supporting children in relation to health service matters more generally. Findings from the survey are presented which reveal the marginal take-up of professional advocacy services in health complaints, and the slender resource in professional advocacy for children commissioned by a small number of health bodies. Advocacy support for users of health services typically focuses upon adult-related issues. The needs of children, particularly those who may have special requirements because of disability, being looked after, or having language or cultural needs are not well met according to the present survey. This raises the question of whether recent policy and guidance on advocacy (particularly for children and vulnerable groups) is seen by health bodies as warranting decisive action and dedicated investment, or whether rhetoric and modest change is the more likely outcome in the face of other pressing demands on health budgets. [source] Forecasting changes in UK interest ratesJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 1 2008Tae-Hwan Kim Abstract Making accurate forecasts of the future direction of interest rates is a vital element when making economic decisions. The focus on central banks as they make decisions about the future direction of interest rates requires the forecaster to assess the likely outcome of committee decisions based on new information since the previous meeting. We characterize this process as a dynamic ordered probit process that uses information to decide between three possible outcomes for interest rates: an increase, decrease or no change. When we analyse the predictive ability of two information sets, we find that the approach has predictive ability both in-sample and out-of-sample that helps forecast the direction of future rates. Copyright © 2008 John wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Y-STR Profiling in Extended Interval (,3 days) Postcoital Cervicovaginal Samples,JOURNAL OF FORENSIC SCIENCES, Issue 2 2008Kathleen A. Mayntz-Press M.S. Abstract:, Depending upon specific situations, some victims of sexual assault provide vaginal samples more than 36,48 h after the incident. We have tested the ability of commercial and in-house Y-STR systems to provide DNA profiles from extended interval (,3 days) postcoital samples. The commercial Y-STR systems tested included the AmpF,STR® YfilerÔ (Applied Biosystems), PowerPlex® Y (Promega) and Y-PLEXÔ 12 (Reliagene) products whereas the in-house systems comprised Multiplex I (MPI) and Multiplex B (MPB). Three donor couples were recruited for the study. Postcoital cervicovaginal swabs (x2) were recovered by each of the three females at specified intervals after sexual intercourse (3,7 days). Each time point sample was collected after a separate act of sexual intercourse and was preceded by a 7-day abstention period. As a negative control, a precoital swab was also recovered prior to coitus for each sampling and only data from postcoital samples that demonstrated a lack of male DNA in the associated precoital sample was used. A number of DNA profile enhancement strategies were employed including sampling by cervical brushing, nondifferential DNA extraction methodology, and post-PCR purification. Full Y-STR profiles from cervicovaginal samples recovered 3,4 days after intercourse were routinely obtained. Profiles were also obtainable 5,6 days postcoitus although by this stage partial profiles rather than full profiles were a more likely outcome. The DNA profiles from the sperm fraction of a differential lysis were superior to that obtained when a nondifferential method was employed in that the allelic signal intensities were generally higher and more balanced and exhibited less baseline noise. The incorporation of a simple post-PCR purification process significantly increased the ability to obtain Y-STR profiles, particularly from 5- to 6-day postcoital samples. Remarkably an 8 locus Y-STR profile was obtained from a 7-day postcoital sample, which is approaching the reported time limit for sperm detection in the cervix. [source] Reproductive interference in two ground-hopper species: testing hypotheses of coexistence in the fieldOIKOS, Issue 9 2007Julia Gröning Similar to resource competition, reproductive interference may hamper the coexistence of closely related species. Species that utilize similar signal channels during mate finding may face substantial fitness costs when they come into contact and demographic displacement of the inferior species (sexual exclusion) is a likely outcome of such interactions. The two ground-hopper species Tetrix ceperoi and Tetrix subulata broadly overlap in their ranges and general habitat requirements, but rarely co-occur on a local scale. Results from laboratory and field experiments suggest that this mosaic pattern of sympatry might be influenced by reproductive interference. Here, we examine the significance of sexual interactions for these species in the field and test hypotheses on mechanisms of coexistence. Our results show that heterospecific sexual interactions also occur under field conditions, but in contrast to the experiments T. ceperoi was not the inferior species. The number of male mating attempts of both species was strongly correlated with encounter frequencies. Males discriminated between the sexes but not between the species, suggesting an incomplete mate recognition system in both species. The analysis of microhabitat preferences and spatial distribution revealed that habitat partitioning is not a suitable mechanism of coexistence in this system. Instead, the costs of reproductive interference are substantially mitigated by different niche breadths leading to different degrees of aggregation. Despite a considerable niche overlap T. ceperoi displayed a stronger preference for bare ground and occurred more aggregated than T. subulata, which had a broader niche. These differences may reduce the frequencies of heterospecific encounters and interactions in the field. Our results demonstrate that coexistence in the presence of reproductive interference is comparable to resource competition, being strongly influenced by ecological traits of the involved species, such as niche breadth and dispersion pattern. [source] The Completely Decentralized City: The Case for Benefits Based Public FinanceAMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY, Issue 1 2001Fed E. Foldvary An alternative to centralized top-down city governance is a multi-level bottom-up structure based on small neighborhood contractual communities. This paper analyzes the voting rules and public finances of decentralized, contractual urban governance and the likely outcome of such a constitutional structure, substantially reduced transfer seeking or rent seeking. Tax and service substitution, with lower-level funding and services substituting for higher-level public finance, is the general process by which the governance would devolve. Land rent is the most feasible source of such decentralized public finance, and local communities could also engage in local currency and credit services. Some empirical examples demonstrate the implementation of some of these governance structures. [source] Diversifying Municipal Government Revenue Structures: Fiscal Illusion or Instability?PUBLIC BUDGETING AND FINANCE, Issue 1 2009DEBORAH A. CARROLL This paper examines (1) whether revenue diversification leads to greater instability as represented by revenue volatility, and (2) whether revenue complexity produces fiscal illusion as represented by increased public expenditures. These questions are answered by analyzing panel data on municipal governments between 1970 and 2002. The findings suggest that fiscal illusion does not occur among municipal governments, but revenue diversification does influence levels of volatility. However, the way in which municipalities diversify is important for achieving revenue stability. When diversification is considered in isolation, both tax and nontax diversification reduce revenue volatility. When diversification and complexity are considered simultaneously, the statistical effect of nontax diversification disappears. But, when a tax revenue structure is both diversified and complex, the likely outcome is greater revenue volatility rather than stability. [source] The peri-urban Pacific: From exclusive to inclusive citiesASIA PACIFIC VIEWPOINT, Issue 3 2003Donovan Storey Abstract:,As the Pacific Islands continue to urbanise, existing models of governance and planning are coming under greater pressure and scrutiny. Both the city council approach and the ,good' urban governance agenda of donors have weaknesses in the region, especially in dealing with peri-urban settlements where the most rapid urban population growth is occurring. This is resulting in increased social discontent and conflict. This paper critiques the ways in which Pacific Island towns and cities are governed and calls for an approach which is more inclusive (and less hierarchical) and informed by concepts of citizenship and social justice. Indeed, policy makers will need to broaden their concepts and practices of governance if many Pacific cities are to be socially, politically, and envir-onmentally sustainable. However, the political-economy of urban development in the region is not proving conducive to consensus, with conflict a more likely outcome in the foreseeable future. [source] Women and Work in the Information AgeGENDER, WORK & ORGANISATION, Issue 1 2000Celia Stanworth Widespread social transformation and new class structures are predicted with the coming of the ,information age', but there is disagreement about the likely outcomes for work and em-ployment patterns. Mainstream writing on the information age, both from the functionalist and Marxist traditions, tends not to consider likely consequences for women, but recent feminist research on gender and technology, treating technology as masculine culture, offers a useful framework for further research. This article argues that the information age may lead to some areas of convergence between the sexes in their experience of future work, but men may continue to defend areas of competence and to dominate the high status and powerful occupational positions of the future. [source] Why health expectations and hopes are different: the development of a conceptual modelHEALTH EXPECTATIONS, Issue 4 2009Karen K. Leung BA (Hons) Abstract Background, In the literature, ,hope' has often been thought of as an ideal expectation. However, we believe the classification of hope as a type of expectation is problematic. Although both hopes and expectations are future-oriented cognitions, expectations are distinct in that they are an individual's probability-driven assessment of the most likely outcomes, while hopes are an assessment of the most desirable , but not necessarily the most probable , outcomes. Aim, This paper presents a conceptual model of the factors that may serve as common antecedents of hopes and expectations, and a mechanism that may mediate their differentiation. Method, Ovid Healthstar and PsycINFO database searches from January 1967 to October 2008 were conducted. An integrative literature review, synthesis and conceptual model development were carried out. Outcome, Our model envisages the differentiation of hope from expectation as a dynamic, longitudinal process consisting of three phases: appraisal of possible outcomes, cognitive analysis for achieving hopes and goal pursuit. Key variables such as temporal proximity, controllability, external resources, goals, affect, agency and pathways may moderate the extent of divergence by influencing the perceived probability of achieving desired outcomes. Conclusion, Hopes and expectations are distinct, but linked, constructs. This preliminary conceptual model presents how hopes and expectations develop, become differentiated and how social-cognitive factors may moderate this relationship. A better understanding of hopes and expectations may assist health professionals in communicating illness-related expectations while maintaining the integrity of patient hopes. [source] Patients with Hip Fracture: Subgroups and Their OutcomesJOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 7 2002Elizabeth A. Eastwood PhD OBJECTIVES: To present several alternative approaches to describing the range and functional outcomes of patients with hip fracture. DESIGN: Prospective study with concurrent medical records data collection and patient and proxy interviews at the time of hospitalization and 6 months later. SETTING: Four hospitals in the New York metropolitan area. PARTICIPANTS: Five hundred seventy-one hospitalized adults aged 50 and older with hip fracture between July 1997 and August 1998. MEASUREMENTS: Rates of return to function in four physical domains, mortality, and nursing home residence at 6 months. Cluster analysis was used to describe the heterogeneity among the sample and identify variations in 6-month mortality, nursing home residence, and level of functioning and to develop a patient classification tree with associated patient outcomes at 6 months postfracture. RESULTS: In locomotion, transfers, and self-care, 33% to 37% of patients returned to their prior level of function by 6 months, including those needing assistance, but only 24% were independent in locomotion at 6 months. Cluster analysis identified eight patient subgroups that had distinct baseline features and variable outcomes at 6 months. The patient classification tree used four variables: atypical functional status (independent in locomotion but dependent in other domains); nursing home residence; independence/dependence in self-care; and age younger than 85 or 85 and older that identified five subgroups with variable 6-month outcomes that clinicians may use to predict likely outcomes for their patients. CONCLUSION: Patients with hip fracture are heterogeneous with respect to baseline and outcome characteristics. Clinicians may be better able to give patients and caregivers information on expected outcomes based on presenting characteristics used in the classification tree. [source] Treatment choices in life threatening illness: Attitudes and preferences of elderly Australian Veterans and War WidowsAUSTRALASIAN JOURNAL ON AGEING, Issue 4 2002Felicity Barr Objectives: The study investigated whether older Australians would choose invasive or active treatment or palliative treatment were they to have a life threatening illness. Reasons for choice of treatment were also investigated. Methods: 109 older veterans and war widows were offered four case studies of patients with a life threatening illness. For each patient there were four treatment options with likely outcomes described. Participants were asked to put themselves in the position of the patient and to select one or more treatment option and to give reasons for their choice. Results: There was considerable diversity in choice of treatment and reasons for choice. Overall, participants were more likely to choose palliative than invasive treatments. Men, especially older men, were more likely than women to choose invasive treatments. Discussion: The study indicated that participants want to exercise choice in their treatment but that they want this to be an informed choice. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||