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Likely Effects (likely + effects)
Selected AbstractsAUSTRALIAN EARLY RETIREMENT TAX BIASES PRIOR TO JULY 2007 AND THE LIKELY EFFECTS OF TAX REFORM ON RETIREMENT PLANSECONOMIC PAPERS: A JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS AND POLICY, Issue 3 2008BRUCE FELMINGHAM We develop a simulation model explaining the accrual of retirement wealth gained from working one year beyond retirement and from this calculate an implicit tax rate on the additional year's work. We find that the pre-July 2007 Australian tax on retirement benefits was biased in favour of ages 59 and less, while the implicit rate was positive on retirement past 59. We also use the results of a national survey of 2,500 households (ASRAM SURVEY) to determine the likely response to the tax changes implemented in July 2007 and find that half those sampled are either very likely or likely to change their expected retirement dates in response to the tax changes. [source] SPECIAL SECTION: EVALUATION OF THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN CANNABIS INFRINGEMENT NOTICE SCHEME,PHASE 1: Community attitudes towards cannabis law and the proposed Cannabis Infringement Notice scheme in Western AustraliaDRUG AND ALCOHOL REVIEW, Issue 4 2005JAMES FETHERSTON Abstract Western Australia (WA) became the fourth Australian jurisdiction to adopt a prohibition with civil penalties scheme for minor cannabis offences when its Cannabis Infringement Notice (CIN) scheme became law on 22 March 2004. Previous criminological research has demonstrated the importance of public attitudes towards the law in determining the effectiveness of legislation. This survey represents the first phase of a pre-post study that attempted to gauge public attitudes towards the legal status of cannabis, the proposed legislative reforms surrounding the drug and their likely effects. A random telephone survey of 809 members of the WA population was conducted prior to the implementation of the new laws with a view to exploring contemporary views of the existing legal status of cannabis, attitudes to the proposed legislative model and respondent perceptions of its likely effects. Despite cannabis being viewed negatively by large numbers of the sample, criminal penalties for minor cannabis offences were viewed as inappropriate and ineffective. Once explained, the proposed civil penalty scheme was viewed as ,a good idea' by 79% of the sample, despite significant differences due to personal experience of cannabis use, political affiliation, religiosity and age of offspring. Most believed that the legislative change would not result in changes to levels of cannabis use (70%) or ease of obtaining cannabis (59%). These data suggest that prior to its implementation the new legislation was highly acceptable to the majority of the community. These baseline data will be compared with data to be collected at the post-change phase of the study to allow empirical observations of attitudinal and behavioural changes occurring in the community. [source] Downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) epidemics on grapevine under climate changeGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2006SALINARI FRANCESCA Abstract As climate is a key agro-ecosystem driving force, climate change could have a severe impact on agriculture. Many assessments have been carried out to date on the possible effects of climate change (temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentration changes) on plant physiology. At present however, likely effects on plant pathogens have not been investigated deeply. The aim of this work was to simulate future scenarios of downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) epidemics on grape under climate change, by combining a disease model to output from two general circulation models (GCMs). Model runs corresponding to the SRES-A2 emissions scenario, characterized by high projections of both population and greenhouse gas emissions from present to 2100, were chosen in order to investigate impacts of worst-case scenarios, among those currently available from IPCC. Three future decades were simulated (2030, 2050, 2080), using as baseline historical series of meteorological data collected from 1955 to 2001 in Acqui Terme, an important grape-growing area in the north-west of Italy. Both GCMs predicted increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation in this region. The simulations obtained by combining the disease model to the two GCM outputs predicted an increase of the disease pressure in each decade: more severe epidemics were a direct consequence of more favourable temperature conditions during the months of May and June. These negative effects of increasing temperatures more than counterbalanced the effects of precipitation reductions, which alone would have diminished disease pressure. Results suggested that, as adaptation response to future climate change, more attention would have to be paid in the management of early downy mildew infections; two more fungicide sprays were necessary under the most negative climate scenario, compared with present management regimes. At the same time, increased knowledge on the effects of climate change on host,pathogen interactions will be necessary to improve current predictions. [source] A meta-analysis of the non-monetary effects of employee health management programsHUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2003Timothy DeGroot This study was undertaken to review the literature on employee health management programs (EHMPs). We explored the history and characteristics of systematic organizational efforts to improve workforce health and well-being. We believe that a historical perspective provides some insight into the economic, political, and social factors that have influenced the trend toward organizationally sanctioned health-promotion efforts. Further, we investigated the likely effects of these programs on valued-behavioral organizational outcomes such as employee performance, employee satisfaction, absenteeism, and voluntary turnover. Our findings show that voluntary general-focus programs are unrelated to job performance, and voluntary programs are negatively related to absenteeism, but effects on absenteeism wane when the program is not voluntary. Moreover, EHMPs are minimally related to job satisfaction and slightly related to turnover. These results, examining behavioral outcomes of EHMPs, question the ability of EHMPs to provide desired behavioral changes in employees, changes that organizations seek to maximize such as increased performance. Are EHMPs more than just socially acceptable programs that help individuals with health problems? © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] Runoff generation from logged and burnt convergent hillslopes: rainfall simulation and modellingHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 5 2004Patrick N. J. Lane Abstract This paper reports results from field experiments and hydrological modelling on the dynamics of runoff generation in highly convergent parts of the landscape in a logged and burnt eucalypt forest in south-eastern Victoria, Australia. Large-scale rainfall simulation experiments were conducted to explore runoff generating mechanisms from harvested areas, and to assess the effectiveness of standard water quality protective measures, here a disturbed filter strip, in preventing accession of sediment to near-stream areas. We then examined the likely effects of varying antecedent moisture conditions on surface and subsurface runoff generating mechanisms. Very small volumes of surface runoff were generated only at very high rainfall intensity rates that exceeded a 100 year recurrence interval event during the simulated experiments. There was little or no identifiable impact of either compaction from logging operations or fire-induced hydrophobicity on surface infiltration or generation of surface runoff. Measured soil hydraulic properties and soil depths explained the paucity of surface runoff, and the dominance of subsurface storm flow as the prime runoff generating mechanism. Deep lateral subsurface flow was observed from the cut-face of a fire access track and into a streamhead downslope of the experimental plots. Water balance modelling using Topog_Dynamic indicated the conditions under which saturated overland flow in this environment could be generated are rare, but that care should be taken in siting of roads and tracks in lower parts of convergent landscapes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The Transmission of US Monetary Policy to the Euro Area,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 1 2010Stefano Neri This paper studies how changes in the federal funds rate by the US Federal Reserve affect the eurozone economy. In our analysis, the international transmission mechanism works through movements in the exchange rate, commodity prices, short-term interest rates and the trade balance. We find that an increase in the federal funds rate causes the euro to immediately depreciate, while commodity, and in particular oil, prices decline sharply, reflecting a decline in demand. Lower commodity prices stimulate household consumption in the short run, and the higher aggregate demand induces an expansion of eurozone economic activity. Our results show that the effects of changes in the federal funds rate on commodity prices are greater than previously found in the literature. Our analysis also assesses the likely effects on the eurozone economy of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) own responses to macroeconomic developments. We find that the expansionary effect of lower commodity prices and a depreciated euro on the eurozone economy is partially offset by the ECB increasing short-term nominal interest rates to curb inflationary pressures in an expanding economy. This result highlights the importance of commodity prices and the euro,dollar exchange rate as inputs into European monetary policy-making, as seen, for example, in the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections used by the Governing Council to assess the risks to price stability. [source] A review of the likely effects of climate change on anadromous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta, with particular reference to water temperature and flowJOURNAL OF FISH BIOLOGY, Issue 10 2009B. Jonsson The present paper reviews the effects of water temperature and flow on migrations, embryonic development, hatching, emergence, growth and life-history traits in light of the ongoing climate change with emphasis on anadromous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta. The expected climate change in the Atlantic is for milder and wetter winters, with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow, decrease in ice-covered periods and frequent periods with extreme weather. Overall, thermal limits for salmonids are species specific. Scope for activity and growth and optimal temperature for growth increase with temperature to an optimal point before constrain by the oxygen content of the water. The optimal temperature for growth decreases with increasing fish size and varies little among populations within species, whereas the growth efficiency may be locally adapted to the temperature conditions of the home stream during the growth season. Indirectly, temperature influences age and size at smolting through its effect on growth. Time of spawning, egg hatching and emergence of the larvae vary with temperature and selective effects on time of first feeding. Traits such as age at first maturity, longevity and fecundity decrease with increasing temperature whilst egg size increases with temperature. Water flow influences the accessibility of rivers for returning adults and speed of both upstream and downstream migration. Extremes in water flow and temperature can decrease recruitment and survival. There is reason to expect a northward movement of the thermal niche of anadromous salmonids with decreased production and population extinction in the southern part of the distribution areas, migrations earlier in the season, later spawning, younger age at smolting and sexual maturity and increased disease susceptibility and mortality. Future research challenges are summarized at the end of the paper. [source] A POST-KEYNESIAN AMENDMENT TO THE NEW CONSENSUS ON MONETARY POLICYMETROECONOMICA, Issue 2 2006Article first published online: 24 APR 200, Marc Lavoie ABSTRACT A common view is now pervasive in policy research at universities and central banks, which one could call the New Keynesian consensus, based on an endogenous money supply. This new consensus reproduces received wisdom: in the long run, expansionary fiscal policy leads to higher inflation rates and real interest rates, while more restrictive monetary policy only leads to lower inflation rates. The paper provides a simple four-quadrant apparatus to represent the above, and it shows that simple modifications to the new consensus model are enough to radically modify received doctrine as to the likely effects of fiscal and monetary policies. [source] Diffuse continuum transfer in H ii regionsMONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 1 2009R. J. R. Williams ABSTRACT We compare the accuracy of various methods for determining the transfer of the diffuse Lyman continuum in H ii regions by comparing them with a high-resolution discrete-ordinate integration. We use these results to suggest how, in multidimensional dynamical simulations, the diffuse field may be treated with acceptable accuracy without requiring detailed transport solutions. The angular distribution of the diffuse field derived from the numerical integration provides insight into the likely effects of the diffuse field for various material distributions. [source] Use of herbal remedies by diabetic Hispanic women in The southwestern United StatesPHYTOTHERAPY RESEARCH, Issue 4 2006Lane Johnson Abstract Objective: The primary purpose of this study was to examine the use and documentation of herbal remedies used by Hispanic women with Type II diabetes enrolled in two Community Health Centers in the Southwest USA. A secondary purpose was to review the literature on identified herbs to assess their likely effects on diabetes. Design: Open-ended structured interviews were conducted on a convenience sample (n = 23) of participants. Medical and medication charts were reviewed for the interviewed participants, and for a random sample of enrolled Hispanic diabetic patients (n = 81) who were not interviewed. Setting: Two Community Health Centers in the Southwest USA. Participants: Enrolled patient, Hispanic females with Type II diabetes. Intervention: Subjects were interviewed about their use of herbal therapies and supplements. Information collected from medical and pharmaceutical charts included documented use of herbal remedies; standard therapies prescribed and diabetes control (hemoglobin A1C values). For those herbal remedies reported, literature reviews were conducted to determine if there was supporting evidence of harm or efficacy for the stated condition. Main Outcome Measures: Reports of herbal use, and types of remedies used. Results: Among the interviewed participants, 21 of 23 (91%) reported using one or more herbal remedies. Among a random sample of patient medical charts, seven (6.7%) contained documentation of diabetes-specific herbs, and 16 (15.4%) had documented general herb use. A total of 77 different herbal remedies were identified, most of which were contained as part of commercial preparations, and appeared to supplement, rather than replace standard medical therapy for diabetes. Conclusion: Use of herbal therapies is not uncommon among diabetic patients. Many of the herbs reported have potential efficacy in treating diabetes or may result in adverse effects or interactions. In practical use, however, the herbs reported in this study are unlikely to have a significant effect on clinical outcomes in diabetes, either positively or negatively. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Misconceptions and political outcomes*THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 484 2003David Romer A large literature shows that strategic interactions among actors with conflicting objectives can cause the political process to produce outcomes that lower welfare. This paper investigates an alternative explanation of such outcomes: if individuals' errors in assessing the likely effects of proposed policies are correlated, democratic decisionmaking can produce welfare-reducing outcomes even in the absence of conflicting objectives. Under plausible assumptions, choosing candidates from among the best informed individuals does not remedy the problems created by such errors, but subsidising information and exposing representatives to information after their election do. Concentration of power has ambiguous effects. [source] Simulating the Behavioural Effects of Welfare Reforms Among Sole Parents in AustraliaTHE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 242 2002Alan Duncan This paper derives and estimates an econometric model of labour supply among sole parents in Australia, using modelling techniques which treat the labour supply decision as a utility maximising choice between a given number of discrete states. The model is then used to look at the likely effects of actual and hypothetical welfare policy reforms. Model estimates are based upon net incomes generated by the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS), developed at the Melbourne Institute in collaboration with the Department of Family and Community Services (FaCS). [source] Doctors in a Wired World: Can Professionalism Survive Connectivity?THE MILBANK QUARTERLY, Issue 3 2002David Blumenthal The Information Revolution Has Raised Myriad questions about how the health care system will function in the future (Gingrich and Magaziner 2000; National Research Council 2000). The consensus seems to be that new information technologies will significantly affect almost every aspect of health care, from the way that employers and individuals purchase health insurance to the way that doctors and patients provide and receive care (National Research Council 2000). Although peer-reviewed evidence to support these predictions is scarce, the available data suggest that the major health care actors are actively experimenting with the new capabilities to exchange information. A February 2002 survey by Harris Interactive (www.Harrisinteractive.com) found that 137 million Americans were users of the Internet and the World Wide Web and 110 million reported going on-line at least three times a month to look for health care information (Landro 2002). An earlier survey by the Pew Charitable Trusts reported that of those Americans who used the Internet for health care purposes, 92 percent found the information useful. The information revolution has the potential to reduce the asymmetry of information between patients and doctors and thereby to undermine a central pillar of physicians' claim to professional status: the possession of distinctive competence based on technical know-how selflessly applied and collectively monitored. A close analysis of the information revolution's likely effects suggests that for some patients with some conditions, their access to more and better information will indeed reduce the magic, mystery, and power of the medical profession. However, the information revolution also offers opportunities for physicians to bolster the cognitive and moral bases of professionalism. To seize those opportunities, physicians must master new roles and skills and avoid unacceptable conflicts of interest. [source] Assessing the effectiveness of conservation management decisions: likely effects of new protection measures for Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori)AQUATIC CONSERVATION: MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS, Issue 3 2010Elisabeth Slooten Abstract 1.Fisheries bycatch affects many species of marine mammals, seabirds, turtles and other marine animals. 2.New Zealand's endemic Hector's dolphins overlap with gillnet and trawl fisheries throughout their geographic range. The species is listed as Endangered by the IUCN. In addition, the North Island subspecies has been listed as Critically Endangered. 3.Estimates of catch rates in commercial gillnets from an observer programme (there are no quantitative estimates of bycatch by amateur gillnetters or in trawl fisheries) were used in a simple population viability analysis to predict the impact of this fishery under three scenarios: Option (A) status-quo management, (B) new regulations announced by the Minister of Fisheries in 2008 and (C) total protection. 4.Uncertainty in estimates of population size and growth rate, number of dolphins caught and other model inputs are explicitly included in the analysis. Sensitivity analyses are carried out to examine the effect of variation in catch rate and the extent to which fishing effort is removed from protected areas but displaced to unprotected areas. 5.These methods are applicable to many other situations in which animals are removed from populations, whether deliberately (e.g. fishing) or not (e.g. bycatch). 6.The current Hector's dolphin population is clearly depleted, at an estimated 27% of the 1970 population. Population projections to 2050 under Options A and B predict that the total population is likely to continue declining. In the case of Option B this is driven mainly by continuing bycatch due to the much weaker protection measures on the South Island west coast. 7.Without fishing mortality (Option C) all populations are projected to increase, with the total population approximately doubling by 2050 and reaching half of its 1970 population size in just under 40 years. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Sensitivity Analyses for Ecological RegressionBIOMETRICS, Issue 1 2003Jon Wakefield Summary. In many ecological regression studies investigating associations between environmental exposures and health outcomes, the observed relative risks are in the range 1.0,2.0. The interpretation of such small relative risks is difficult due to a variety of biases,some of which are unique to ecological data, since they arise from within-area variability in exposures/confounders. The potential for residual spatial dependence, due to unmeasured confounders and/or data anomalies with spatial structure, must also be considered, though it often will be of secondary importance when compared to the likely effects of unmeasured confounding and within-area variability in exposures/confounders. Methods for addressing sensitivity to these issues are described, along with an approach for assessing the implications of spatial dependence. An ecological study of the association between myocardial infarction and magnesium is critically reevaluated to determine potential sources of bias. It is argued that the sophistication of the statistical analysis should not outweigh the quality of the data, and that finessing models for spatial dependence will often not be merited in the context of ecological regression. [source] Sex in Space: Pollination among Spatially Isolated PlantsBIOTROPICA, Issue 2 2004Jaboury Ghazoul ABSTRACT Plant distributions are changing at unprecedented rates, primarily due to habitat clearance and the spread of alien invasive species. Landscape pattern and local density can affect plant sexual processes, particularly those mediated by biotic vectors, by acting on the composition and behavior of pollinators and seed dispersers. Ecologists are now grappling with the likely effects of these altered processes on future forest composition as existing plant reproductive mutualisms break down or adjust to new spatial circumstances. Here, we introduce five papers that address pollinator responses and pollination outcomes in a variety of human-dominated landscapes and emphasize the need to better understand the dynamic nature of plant,pollinator interactions. [source] | ||||||||||||||||