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Likelihood
Kinds of Likelihood Terms modified by Likelihood Selected AbstractsROMANTIC PARTNERS' INFLUENCE ON MEN'S LIKELIHOOD OF ARREST IN EARLY ADULTHOOD,CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 2 2008DEBORAH M. CAPALDI Female romantic partners' influence on official crime occurrence for men across a 12-year period in early adulthood was examined within a comprehensive dynamic prediction model, including both social learning and social control predictors. We hypothesized that relationship stability, rather than attachment to partner, would be associated with reduced likelihood of crime, whereas women's antisocial behavior would be a risk factor, along with deviant peer association. Models were tested on a sample of at-risk men [the Oregon Youth Study (OYS)] using zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) modeling predicting 1) arrest persistence (class and count) and 2) arrest onset class. The findings indicated that women's antisocial behavior was predictive of both onset and persistence of arrests for men and that deviant peer association was predictive of persistence. Relationship stability was protective against persistence. [source] LIKELIHOOD-BASED INFERENCE IN ISOLATION-BY-DISTANCE MODELS USING THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF LOW-FREQUENCY ALLELESEVOLUTION, Issue 11 2009John Novembre Estimating dispersal distances from population genetic data provides an important alternative to logistically taxing methods for directly observing dispersal. Although methods for estimating dispersal rates between a modest number of discrete demes are well developed, methods of inference applicable to "isolation-by-distance" models are much less established. Here, we present a method for estimating ,,2, the product of population density (,) and the variance of the dispersal displacement distribution (,2). The method is based on the assumption that low-frequency alleles are identical by descent. Hence, the extent of geographic clustering of such alleles, relative to their frequency in the population, provides information about ,,2. We show that a novel likelihood-based method can infer this composite parameter with a modest bias in a lattice model of isolation-by-distance. For calculating the likelihood, we use an importance sampling approach to average over the unobserved intraallelic genealogies, where the intraallelic genealogies are modeled as a pure birth process. The approach also leads to a likelihood-ratio test of isotropy of dispersal, that is, whether dispersal distances on two axes are different. We test the performance of our methods using simulations of new mutations in a lattice model and illustrate its use with a dataset from Arabidopsis thaliana. [source] NONPARAMETRIC LIKELIHOOD: EFFICIENCY AND ROBUSTNESS,THE JAPANESE ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2007YUICHI KITAMURAArticle first published online: 8 FEB 200 Nonparametric likelihood is a natural generalization of parametric likelihood and it offers effective methods for analysing economic models with nonparametric components. This is of great interest, since econometric theory rarely suggests a parametric form of the probability law of data. Being a nonparametric method, nonparametric likelihood is robust to misspecification. At the same time, it often achieves good properties that are analogous to those of parametric likelihood. This paper explores various applications of nonparametric likelihood, with some emphasis on the analysis of biased samples and data combination problems. [source] SIMULATED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPLIED TO NON-GAUSSIAN AND NONLINEAR MIXED EFFECTS AND STATE,SPACE MODELSAUSTRALIAN & NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF STATISTICS, Issue 4 2004Russell B. Millar Summary The paper presents an overview of maximum likelihood estimation using simulated likelihood, including the use of antithetic variables and evaluation of the simulation error of the resulting estimates. It gives a general purpose implementation of simulated maximum likelihood and uses it to re-visit four models that have previously appeared in the published literature: a state,space model for count data; a nested random effects model for binomial data; a nonlinear growth model with crossed random effects; and a crossed random effects model for binary salamander-mating data. In the case of the last three examples, this appears to be the first time that maximum likelihood fits of these models have been presented. [source] Empirical Likelihood-Based Inference in Conditional Moment Restriction ModelsECONOMETRICA, Issue 6 2004Yuichi Kitamura This paper proposes an asymptotically efficient method for estimating models with conditional moment restrictions. Our estimator generalizes the maximum empirical likelihood estimator (MELE) of Qin and Lawless (1994). Using a kernel smoothing method, we efficiently incorporate the information implied by the conditional moment restrictions into our empirical likelihood-based procedure. This yields a one-step estimator which avoids estimating optimal instruments. Our likelihood ratio-type statistic for parametric restrictions does not require the estimation of variance, and achieves asymptotic pivotalness implicitly. The estimation and testing procedures we propose are normalization invariant. Simulation results suggest that our new estimator works remarkably well in finite samples. [source] Residential Segregation Influences on the Likelihood of Ethnic Self-EmploymentENTREPRENEURSHIP THEORY AND PRACTICE, Issue 2 2009Gregory B. Fairchild Geographic and environmental influences on economic action have a long history in managerial research. This paper develops and estimates a model of the potential of a broad set of U.S. racial minority groups to enter self-employment based on individual-level, household-level, and metropolitan area-level factors. The model allows for an analysis of two distinct residential segregation processes on self-employment likelihood. Results indicate that clustering by race has group-specific influences, increasing the likelihood of self-employment for some groups and diminishing for others. Higher levels of racial exposure raise the likelihood of entrepreneurial careers for all groups, but especially for Blacks. [source] Recent evolutionary diversification of a protist lineageENVIRONMENTAL MICROBIOLOGY, Issue 5 2008Ramiro Logares Summary Here, we have identified a protist (dinoflagellate) lineage that has diversified recently in evolutionary terms. The species members of this lineage inhabit cold-water marine and lacustrine habitats, which are distributed along a broad range of salinities (0,32) and geographic distances (0,18 000 km). Moreover, the species present different degrees of morphological and sometimes physiological variability. Altogether, we analysed 30 strains, generating 55 new DNA sequences. The nuclear ribosomal DNA (nrDNA) sequences (including rapidly evolving introns) were very similar or identical among all the analysed isolates. This very low nrDNA differentiation was contrasted by a relatively high cytochrome b (COB) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) polymorphism, even though the COB evolves very slowly in dinoflagellates. The 16 Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian phylogenies constructed using nr/mtDNA indicated that the studied cold-water dinoflagellates constitute a monophyletic group (supported also by the morphological analyses), which appears to be evolutionary related to marine-brackish and sometimes toxic Pfiesteria species. We conclude that the studied dinoflagellates belong to a lineage which has diversified recently and spread, sometimes over long distances, across low-temperature environments which differ markedly in ecology (marine versus lacustrine communities) and salinity. Probably, this evolutionary diversification was promoted by the variety of natural selection regimes encountered in the different environments. [source] Likelihood-based tests for localized spatial clustering of diseaseENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 8 2004Ronald E. Gangnon Abstract Numerous methods have been proposed for detecting spatial clustering of disease. Two methods for likelihood-based inference using parametric models for clustering are the spatial scan statistic and the weighted average likelihood ratio (WALR) test. The spatial scan statistic provides a measure of evidence for clustering at a specific, data-identified location; it can be biased towards finding clusters in areas with greater spatial resolution. The WALR test provides a more global assessment of the evidence for clustering and identifies cluster locations in a relatively unbiased fashion using a posterior distribution over potential clusters. We consider two new statistics which attempt to combine the specificity of the scan statistic with the lack of bias of the WALR test: a scan statistic based on a penalized likelihood ratio and a localized version of the WALR test. We evaluate the power of these tests and bias of the associated estimates through simulations and demonstrate their application using the well-known New York leukemia data. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear models for a geographical subset of recovery dataENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 2 2002Daniela Cocchi Abstract The aim of this work is to check whether modifications in the length of the hunting seasons had an effect on the chance of reproduction of different species of ringed birds. We start from a national data set of ringing-recovered data on three species of game birds. Only data on birds recovered as juveniles are used. Data on recoveries are organized in a 4-way contingency table. Several generalized linear models are proposed for the counts of recovered birds. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is particularly suitable for this kind of data, for which an over-dispersion parameter can be introduced at the second level of the hierarchy. Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian solutions are computed for the different models: the Bayesian framework, in particular under an individual modeling of over-dispersion, exhibits the best fit in terms of Bayesian p -value. The results show that the modification in the length of the hunting seasons does not produce equal benefits for the three species considered. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Prior Payment Status and the Likelihood to Pay Dividends: International EvidenceFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2010Mia Twu G32; G35 Abstract By using the signaling model and the life-cycle theory, I examine the importance of prior payment status in determining the likelihood to pay dividends. I categorize firms into those that paid dividends previously and those that did not. My results show that strong dividend stickiness exists and the determinants to pay differ significantly for the two groups of firms. High growth and low insider holdings make prior payers more likely to pay but prior nonpayers less likely to pay. Furthermore, prior payers are more sensitive to profitability and earned/contributed equity mix, while prior nonpayers are more sensitive to risk and dividend premiums. Finally, taking the prior payment status into account eliminates the problem of overestimating the portion of payers put forth by previous studies. [source] Survey of computer use for health topics by patients with head and neck cancerHEAD & NECK: JOURNAL FOR THE SCIENCES & SPECIALTIES OF THE HEAD AND NECK, Issue 1 2005Jane Lea BSc Abstract Background. Computers are potentially powerful tools for patient education. E-health, which refers to health services and information delivered through the Internet, is a growing phenomenon within the health-care field. We sought to describe computer use and interest in e-health resources among patients with head and neck cancer. Methods. A questionnaire was administered to 207 patients with head and neck cancer attending oncology follow-up clinics at a single comprehensive cancer center. Results. Forty-eight percent had never used a computer; 43% used one more than once a week. E-health information had been sought by 31%. Likelihood to access e-health information increased with education and income but decreased with age (p , .05). Conclusions. Many patients with head and neck cancer welcome information technology, but most prefer more traditional sources of information. Interventions to improve computer access and/or skills are largely undesired. Individuals seem to either embrace technology or not. In this respect, patients with head and neck cancer are similar to, rather than unique from, other patients with cancer. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck27: 8,14, 2005 [source] When Auditors Err: How Mistake Significance and Superiors' Historical Reactions Influence Auditors' Likelihood to Admit a MistakeINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AUDITING, Issue 1 2010Chad Stefaniak The procedures performed by staff auditors are a critical component of the audit process, and mistakes in these procedures could jeopardize opinions if they are not communicated. While professional standards instruct auditors to report their errors, auditors have incentives to withhold information about mistakes because they are protective of their professional images. These conflicting pressures are examined by investigating the effects of mistake significance and superiors' historical reactions to mistake admissions on the likelihood that staff auditors will admit mistakes. We find an interaction suggesting that staff auditors are more likely to admit errors when their superiors have reacted positively, regardless of error significance. Conversely, staff auditors are less likely to admit apparently insignificant errors when their superiors have reacted negatively to prior mistakes. [source] Perceived Audit Quality, Modified Audit Opinions and the Likelihood of Liquidating Bankruptcy among Financially Weak FirmsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AUDITING, Issue 3 2009Stefan Sundgren The paper examines the relationship between audit quality, modified audit opinions and the likelihood of liquidating bankruptcy among financially weak firms. The sample consists of 27,999 Finnish companies. It is argued that the choice of a high-quality auditor signals managers' credibility and that creditors would be more inclined to prefer liquidating bankruptcy as the resolution of financial difficulties if the firm is audited by a low-quality auditor. The results show that liquidating bankruptcy is less common among Big 4 audited firms. A positive association between the likelihood of bankruptcy and different types of modified audit opinions, including opinions with remarks related to the quality and presentation of financial statements, is also found. [source] A modelling strategy for the analysis of clinical trials with partly missing longitudinal dataINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF METHODS IN PSYCHIATRIC RESEARCH, Issue 3 2003Ian R. White Abstract Standard statistical analyses of randomized controlled trials with partially missing outcome data often exclude valuable information from individuals with incomplete follow-up. This may lead to biased estimates of the intervention effect and loss of precision. We consider a randomized trial with a repeatedly measured outcome, in which the value of the outcome on the final occasion is of primary interest. We propose a modelling strategy in which the model is successively extended to include baseline values of the outcome, then intermediate values of the outcome, and finally values of other outcome variables. Likelihood-based estimation of random effects models is used, allowing the incorporation of data from individuals with some missing outcomes. Each estimated intervention effect is free of non-response bias under a different missing-at-random assumption. These assumptions become more plausible as the more complex models are fitted, so we propose using the trend in estimated intervention effects to assess the nature of any non-response bias. The methods are applied to data from a trial comparing intensive case management with standard case management for severely psychotic patients. All models give similar estimates of the intervention effect and we conclude that non-response bias is likely to be small. Copyright © 2003 Whurr Publishers Ltd. [source] Comments on "A Foundational Justification for a Weighted Likelihood Approach to Inference"INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2004Glenn Shafer First page of article [source] Raising Adult Vaccination Rates over 4 Years Among Racially Diverse Patients at Inner-City Health CentersJOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 7 2008Mary Patricia Nowalk PhD OBJECTIVES: To increase adult immunizations at inner-city health centers serving primarily minority patients. DESIGN: A before,after trial with a concurrent control. SETTING: Five inner-city health centers. PARTICIPANTS: All adult patients at the health centers eligible for influenza and pneumococcal vaccines. INTERVENTION: Four intervention sites chose from a menu of culturally appropriate interventions based on the unique features of their respective health centers. MEASUREMENTS: Immunization and demographic data from medical records of a random sample of 568 patients aged 50 and older who had been patients at their health centers since 2000. RESULTS: The preintervention influenza vaccination rate of 27.1% increased to 48.9% (P<.001) in intervention sites in Year 4, whereas the concurrent control rate remained low (19.7%). The pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV) rate in subjects aged 65 and older increased from 48.3% to 81.3% (P<.001) in intervention sites in Year 4. Increase in PPV in the concurrent control was not significant. In logistic regression analysis, the likelihood of influenza vaccination was significantly associated with the intervention (odds ratio (OR)=2.07, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.77,2.41) and with age of 65 and older (OR=2.0, 95% CI=1.62,2.48) but not with race. Likelihood of receiving the pneumococcal vaccination was also associated with older age and, to a lesser degree, with intervention. CONCLUSION: Culturally appropriate, evidence-based interventions selected by intervention sites resulted in increased adult vaccinations in disadvantaged, racially diverse, inner-city populations over 2 to 4 years. [source] Bayesian inference strategies for the prediction of genetic merit using threshold models with an application to calving ease scores in Italian Piemontese cattleJOURNAL OF ANIMAL BREEDING AND GENETICS, Issue 4 2002K. Kizilkaya Summary First parity calving difficulty scores from Italian Piemontese cattle were analysed using a threshold mixed effects model. The model included the fixed effects of age of dam and sex of calf and their interaction and the random effects of sire, maternal grandsire, and herd-year-season. Covariances between sire and maternal grandsire effects were modelled using a numerator relationship matrix based on male ancestors. Field data consisted of 23 953 records collected between 1989 and 1998 from 4741 herd-year-seasons. Variance and covariance components were estimated using two alternative approximate marginal maximum likelihood (MML) methods, one based on expectation-maximization (EM) and the other based on Laplacian integration. Inferences were compared to those based on three separate runs or sequences of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling in order to assess the validity of approximate MML estimates derived from data with similar size and design structure. Point estimates of direct heritability were 0.24, 0.25 and 0.26 for EM, Laplacian and MCMC (posterior mean), respectively, whereas corresponding maternal heritability estimates were 0.10, 0.11 and 0.12, respectively. The covariance between additive direct and maternal effects was found to be not different from zero based on MCMC-derived confidence sets. The conventional joint modal estimates of sire effects and associated standard errors based on MML estimates of variance and covariance components differed little from the respective posterior means and standard deviations derived from MCMC. Therefore, there may be little need to pursue computation-intensive MCMC methods for inference on genetic parameters and genetic merits using conventional threshold sire and maternal grandsire models for large datasets on calving ease. Zusammenfassung Die Kalbeschwierigkeiten bei italienischen Piemonteser Erstkalbskühen wurden mittels eines gemischten Threshold Modells untersucht. Im Modell wurden die fixen Einflüsse vom Alter der Kuh und dem Geschlecht des Kalbes, der Interaktion zwischen beiden und die zufälligen Effekte des Großvaters der Mutter und der Herden-Jahr-Saisonklasse berücksichtigt. Die Kovarianz zwischen dem Vater der Kuh und dem Großvater der Mutter wurde über die nur auf väterlicher Verwandtschaft basierenden Verwandtschaftsmatrix berücksichtigt. Es wurden insgesamt 23953 Datensätze aus den Jahren 1989 bis 1998 von 4741 Herden-Jahr-Saisonklassen ausgewertet. Die Varianz- und Kovarianzkomponenten wurden mittels zweier verschiedener approximativer marginal Maximum Likelihood (MML) Methoden geschätzt, die erste basierend auf Expectation-Maximierung (EM) und die zweite auf Laplacian Integration. Rückschlüsse wurden verglichen mit solchen, basierend auf drei einzelne Läufe oder Sequenzen von Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Stichproben, um die Gültigkeit der approximativen MML Schätzer aus Daten mit ähnlicher Größe und Struktur zu prüfen. Die Punktschätzer der direkten Heritabilität lagen bei 0,24; 0,25 und 0,26 für EM, Laplacian und MCMC (Posterior Mean), während die entsprechenden maternalen Heritabilitäten bei 0,10, 0,11 und 0,12 lagen. Die Kovarianz zwischen dem direkten additiven und dem maternalen Effekt wurden als nicht von Null verschieden geschätzt, basierend auf MCMC abgeleiteten Konfidenzintervallen. Die konventionellen Schätzer der Vatereffekte und deren Standardfehler aus den MML-Schätzungen der Varianz- und Kovarianzkomponenten differieren leicht von denen aus der MCMC Analyse. Daraus folgend besteht wenig Bedarf die rechenintensiven MCMC-Methoden anzuwenden, um genetische Parameter und den genetischen Erfolg zu schätzen, wenn konventionelle Threshold Modelle für große Datensätze mit Vätern und mütterlichen Großvätern mit Kalbeschwierigkeiten genutzt werden. [source] Estimates of environmental effects and genetic parameters for body measurements and weight in Brahman cattle raised in MexicoJOURNAL OF ANIMAL BREEDING AND GENETICS, Issue 4 2002C. D. U. Magnabosco Summary A Derivative Free Restricted Maximum Likelihood (DFREML) algorithm was used with single trait and two traits animal models to estimate the variance and covariance components and thus, heritabilities and phenotypic, genetic and environmental correlations among nine different body measurements and weights of Brahman cattle raised in Mexico. The following measurements were considered: hip width, pin width, hip-pin width, anterior height, posterior height, body length, thorax perimeter, scrotal circumference and weight. The analysis was based on a total of 1018 animals, born between 1992 and 1995, from 17 herds in the Mexican States of Chiapas, San Luis Potosi, Tabasco, Tamaulipas and Veracruz. The model included the following fixed effects: herd, year-season of birth, sex, age of the animal and feed management. The only random effect was the direct additive genetic contribution of each animal. All fixed effects in the model were significant for all traits (p < 0.05). Estimated heritabilities for the traits were: hip width 0.57, pin width 0.32, hip-pin width 0.41, anterior height 0.56, posterior height 0.54, body length 0.32, thorax perimeter 0.49, scrotal circumference 0.02 and weight 0.66. The magnitude of the heritabilities was medium to high, with the exception of scrotal circumference. The genetic correlations among all body measurements were consistently positive and high, ranging from 0.64 to 1.00. Although other measures showed higher genetic correlations with weight, thorax perimeter combines a high value (0.70) with ease and repeatability, making it a useful field measurement to estimate body weight when scales are not available. Resumen Estimados de efectos ambientales y parámetros genéticos para medidas corporales y peso vivo en ganado brahman criado en méjico Fue usado un algoritmo de Máxima Verosimilitud Restricta Libre de Derivadas (DFREML) con modelos animales para una y dos características para estimar componentes de (co)varianzas, heredabilidades y correlaciones fenotípicas, genéticas y ambientales entre nueve diferentes medidas corporales y peso vivo de ganado Brahman criado en México. Fueron considerados los siguientes rasgos: ancho anterior de la grupa, ancho posterior de la grupa, largo de la grupa, altura a la cruz, altura a la grupa, largo del cuerpo, perímetro toráxico, perímetro escrotal y peso vivo. Se usaron datos de 1018 animales, nacidos entre 1992 y 1995, procedentes de 17 rebaños de los Estados mejicanos de Chiapas, San Luis Potosí, Tabasco, Tamaulipas y Veracruz. El modelo matemático incluyó los siguientes efectos fijos: rebaño, año-época de nacimiento, sexo, clase de edad del animal y manejo alimentar. Se consideró el efecto aditivo directo de cada animal como el único efecto aleatorio. Todos los efectos fijos del modelo fueron significativos para todas las características (P < 0.05). Las heredabilidades estimadas fueron: ancho anterior de la grupa 0.57, ancho posterior de la grupa 0.32, largo de la grupa 0.41, altura a la cruz 0.56, altura a la grupa 0.54, largo del cuerpo 0.32, perímetro toráxico 0.49, perímetro escrotal 0.02 y peso vivo 0.66. Las magnitudes de las heredabilidades fueron de medias a altas, con excepción del perímetro escrotal. Las correlaciones genéticas entre todas las medidas corporales fueron consistentemente positivas y altas, variando de 0.64 a 1.00. Aunque otras medidas corporales mostraron altas correlaciones genéticas con el peso vivo, el perímetro toráxico combina un alto valor de esa correlación (0.70) con facilidad de medición y alta repetibilidad, haciendo de esta una medida útil, para estimar el peso vivo, en condiciones de campo donde no se dispone de balanza. [source] Estimation of heritability for hip dysplasia in German Shepherd Dogs in FinlandJOURNAL OF ANIMAL BREEDING AND GENETICS, Issue 2 2000M. Leppaänen The heritability of hip dysplasia in the German Shepherd Dog was estimated by applying the animal model and the Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) method to a data-set which consisted of the hip scores of 10 335 dogs. Fixed effects of the model were the month and the year of birth, screening age, the panelist responsible for screening and the origin of the animal's sire. The litter and the breeder had only minor effects on hip joints. Heritability estimates were moderate (0.31,0.35). The moderate heritability, which was found in this study, enables a much better genetic gain in the breeding programme, if proper evaluation methods, such as BLUP animal model, and effective selection is used instead of phenotypic selection. Zusammenfassung Schätzung der Heritabilität der Hüftgelenksdysplasie beim Deutschen Schäferhund in Finnland. Die Heritabilität der Hüftgelenksdysplasie beim Deutschen Schäferhund wurde mit Hilfe des Tiermodells und der Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) Methode anhand von Hüftgelenksgutachten von 10 335 Hunden geschätzt. Als fixe Effekte wurden im Modell ,Geburtsmonat' und ,-jahr', ,Röntgenalter', Einfluß des ,Gutachters' und ,Herkunft des Vaters' berücksichtigt. Die Effekte ,Wurf' und ,Züchter' hatten nur einen geringen Einfluß auf die Hüftgelenke. Die Heritabilitätsschätzungen betrugen 0.31 bis 0.35. Die in dieser Studie geschätzten Heritabilitäten ermöglichen es, zusammen mit geeigneten Methoden, wie beispielsweise dem BLUP-Tiermodell und einer effektiven Selektion, einen schnelleren Zuchtfortschritt zu erreichen, als nur phänotypisch zu selektieren. [source] Cigarette Smoking in Popular Films: Does It Increase Viewers' Likelihood to Smoke?,JOURNAL OF APPLIED SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 11 2000David Hines The effect of viewing smoking in popular films was investigated. Participants were instructed to rate main characters in scenes from popular films on 12 characteristics (e. g., attractive, sexy, sociable). One group watched 6 scenes from popular films in which the main character they rated was smoking. The other group watched scenes from the same 6 films in which they rated the same main characters who were not smoking. The participants rated the female characters shown smoking less favorably on all rated characteristics, but not the male characters. The male regular and occasional smokers had a higher current desire to smoke if the film characters they had viewed smoked. Both female and male participants who viewed the characters smoking were more likely to indicate a likelihood to smoke than were the participants who viewed the nonsmoking scenes. [source] Multiple options in the past and the present: The impact on inaction inertiaJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 5 2008Marijke van Putten Abstract Inaction inertia is the effect that people do not act on an attractive opportunity only because they previously missed a more attractive opportunity. We investigated the effect of the presence of alternative options on the occurrence of this effect. We hypothesized and found that the likelihood to act on a current opportunity increases when evaluated in the context of another current option compared to when it is presented separately (Experiments 1 and 2). Likelihood of action decreases when the missed opportunity is presented next to another missed opportunity (Experiment 3). We conclude that when multiple options are currently present, the impact of the missed opportunity as a point of reference decreases, and that when multiple options are missed, the impact of these missed opportunities as a point of reference increases. These results are discussed in light of the literatures about inaction inertia and multiple options. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Fluctuating asymmetry as a bio-indicator in isolated populations of the Taita thrush: a Bayesian perspectiveJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 5-6 2002Luc Lens Aim We examined whether developmental instability can be used as a bio-monitoring tool in the endangered Taita thrush (Turdus helleri L.) through the measurement of individual levels of fluctuating asymmetry in tarsus length. Because estimates of the association between developmental instability, stress and fitness derived from traditional regression are biased, we compared parameter estimates obtained from likelihood based analysis with those obtained from a Bayesian latent variable model. Location Taita thrushes were captured and measured in three isolated cloud forest fragments located in the Taita Hills of south-east Kenya. Methods We applied mixed-effects regression with Restricted Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation (performed with SAS version 8.0) and Bayesian latent variable modelling (performed with WINBUGS version 1.3 and CODA version 0.4) to estimate unbiased levels of developmental instability and to model relationships between developmental instability and body condition in 312 Taita thrushes. Results Likelihood and Bayesian analyses yielded highly comparable results. Individual levels of developmental instability were strongly inversely related to body condition in the subpopulation with the lowest average condition. In contrast, both variables were unrelated in two other subpopulations with higher average condition. Such heterogeneity in association was in the direction expected by developmental theory, given that higher condition suggests more benign ambient conditions. The estimated levels of body condition in the three subpopulations did not support their presumed ranking in relation to environmental stress. Developmental instability and body condition are therefore believed to reflect different aspects of individual fitness. Main conclusions Variation in developmental homeostasis, either modelled as observable variable (fluctuating asymmetry) or latent variable (developmental instability), appears a useful indicator of stress effects in the Taita thrush. Because relationships between environmental stress and developmental instability may depend on the extent to which stress-mediated changes in other components of phenotypic variation are correlated, the study of trait asymmetry should preferably be combined with that of other measures of trait variability, such as trait size or organismal condition. [source] QUANTIFYING ADULTERATION IN ROAST COFFEE POWDERS BY DIGITAL IMAGE PROCESSINGJOURNAL OF FOOD QUALITY, Issue 2 2003EDSON E. SANO Pure arabica coffee and mixtures of coffee husks and straw, maize, brown sugar and soybean were produced in our laboratory as investigation materials. Red/Green/Blue (RGB) color composites, magnified twelve times, were generated using a Charge Coupled Device (CCD) camera connected to a stereo microscope and a personal computer with an image processing software package. The percent areas of the contaminants in each image were calculated by the Maximum Likelihood supervised classification technique. Best-fit equations relating weight percentage (g.kg -1) and the percent areas were obtained for each coffee contaminant. To test the method, 247 coffee samples of different amounts and types of adulterants were analyzed in the laboratory. The results showed that the new method developed can analyze precisely and quickly a large number of ground coffee powders. [source] Likelihood of Illegal Alcohol Sales at Professional Sport StadiumsALCOHOLISM, Issue 11 2008Traci L. Toomey Background:, Several studies have assessed the propensity for illegal alcohol sales at licensed alcohol establishments and community festivals, but no previous studies examined the propensity for these sales at professional sport stadiums. In this study, we assessed the likelihood of alcohol sales to both underage youth and obviously intoxicated patrons at professional sports stadiums across the United States, and assessed the factors related to likelihood of both types of alcohol sales. Methods:, We conducted pseudo-underage (i.e., persons age 21 or older who appear under 21) and pseudo-intoxicated (i.e., persons feigning intoxication) alcohol purchase attempts at stadiums that house professional hockey, basketball, baseball, and football teams. We conducted the purchase attempts at 16 sport stadiums located in 5 states. We measured 2 outcome variables: pseudo-underage sale (yes, no) and pseudo-intoxicated sale (yes, no), and 3 types of independent variables: (1) seller characteristics, (2) purchase attempt characteristics, and (3) event characteristics. Following univariate and bivariate analyses, we a separate series of logistic generalized mixed regression models for each outcome variable. Results:, The overall sales rates to the pseudo-underage and pseudo-intoxicated buyers were 18% and 74%, respectively. In the multivariate logistic analyses, we found that the odds of a sale to a pseudo-underage buyer in the stands was 2.9 as large as the odds of a sale at the concession booths (30% vs. 13%; p = 0.01). The odds of a sale to an obviously intoxicated buyer in the stands was 2.9 as large as the odds of a sale at the concession booths (89% vs. 73%; p = 0.02). Conclusions:, Similar to studies assessing illegal alcohol sales at licensed alcohol establishments and community festivals, findings from this study shows the need for interventions specifically focused on illegal alcohol sales at professional sporting events. [source] STATEWIDE EMPIRICAL MODELING OF BACTERIAL CONTAMINATION OF SURFACE WATERS,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 3 2006James D. Wickham ABSTRACT: Bacterial contamination of surface waters is attributed to both urban and agricultural land use practices and is one of the most frequently cited reasons for failure to meet standards established under the Clean Water Act (CWA) (P.L. 92,500). Statewide modeling can be used to determine if bacterial contamination occurs predominantly in urban or agricultural settings. Such information is useful for directing future monitoring and allocating resources for protection and restoration activities. Logistic regression was used to model the likelihood of bacterial contamination using watershed factors for the state of Maryland. Watershed factors included land cover, soils, topography, hydrography, locations of septic systems, and animal feeding operations. Results indicated that bacterial contamination occurred predominantly in urban settings. Likelihood of bacterial contamination was highest for small watersheds with well drained and erodible soils and a high proportion of urban land adjacent to streams. The number of septic systems and animal feeding operations and the amount of agricultural land were not significant explanatory factors. The urban infrastructure tends to "connect" more of the watershed to the stream network through the creation of roads, storm sewers, and wastewater treatment plants. This may partly explain the relationship between urbanization and bacterial contamination found in this study. [source] Systematic position of the pelagic Thecosomata and Gymnosomata within Opisthobranchia (Mollusca, Gastropoda) , revival of the PteropodaJOURNAL OF ZOOLOGICAL SYSTEMATICS AND EVOLUTIONARY RESEARCH, Issue 2 2006A. Klussmann-Kolb Abstract The complete 18S (SSU) rRNA as well partial 28S (LSU) rRNA and partial mitochondrial COI sequences have been used to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationships within Opisthobranchia with special focus on the pelagic orders Thecosomata and Gymnosomata. Maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, distance as well as Bayesian analysis of a combined dataset of the three genes reveals that Thecosomata and Gymnosomata are sister groups and together are closely related to Anaspidea. Possible sister taxon to Thecosomata, Gymnosomata and Anaspidea is Cephalaspidea s. str. Analysis of a taxon-extended dataset of partial 28S sequences supported a basal position of Limacina within Euthecosomata. Within Cavolinidae, Creseis is basal to the other taxa. Other phylogenetic implications from the present results are also discussed. Investigation of the morphology and histology of Thecosomata and Gymnosomata as well as several other opisthobranch taxa helped to identify autapomorphies for Thecosomata and Gymnosomata as well as apomorphies for the clades including these taxa. Zusammenfassung Auf Basis der kompletten 18S rRNA- und partiellen 28S rRNA- sowie partiellen COI- Sequenzen wurde die Phylogenie der Opisthobranchia unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der pelagischen Thecosomata und Gymnosomata rekonstruiert. Maximum Parsimonie-, Maximum Likelihood- sowie Distanz- Berechnungen und Bayes'sche Analysen zeigen, dass die Thecosomata und Gymnosomata Schwestergruppen und nah verwandt mit den Anaspidea sind. Die potentielle Schwestergruppe zu Thecosomata, Gymnosomata und Anaspidea sind die Cephalaspidea s. str. Die Analyse eines taxonerweiterten Datensatzes von partiellen 28S rRNA-Sequenzen unterstützt die basale Position von Limacina innerhalb der Euthecosomata. Innerhalb der Cavolinidae stellt Creseis das basalste Taxon dar. Weitere Schlussfolgerungen zu phylogenetischen Verwandtschaftsverhältnissen der Opisthobranchia auf Grundlage der vorliegenden Untersuchungen werden diskutiert. Die Untersuchungen der Morphologie und Histologie der Thecosomata und Gymnosomata sowie anderer Opisthobranchia ließen apomorphe Merkmale der Thecosomata und Gymnosomata sowie Apomorphien der Kladen, die diese beiden pelagischen Taxa enthalten, erkennen. [source] Gender and the Likelihood of Being Securely Detained for ContemptJUVENILE AND FAMILY COURT JOURNAL, Issue 1 2003M. DYAN MCGUIRE PH.D. J.D. ABSTRACT Several theorists have hypothesized that juvenile court judges are circumventing the proscription contained in the Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act ("JJDPA"), which prohibits the secure confinement of status offenders by securely detaining status offenders for contempt. It has also been suggested that girls may be especially likely to be securely detained as a result of violating a valid court order. This study uses descriptive and multivariate techniques to examine the demographic, legal, and jurisdictional variables associated with receiving secure detention for violating a valid court order and to evaluate the degree to which the spirit, if not the letter, of the JJDPA's core requirement of deinstitutionalizing status offenders is being violated because of the exemption permitting juvenile court judges to securely detain children found in contempt. The findings from this study indicate that being female does not contribute to detention for contempt but being accused of a status offense does. Implications of these findings are discussed. [source] Juvenile Court Judges' Perceptions of What Factors Affect Juvenile Offenders' Likelihood of RehabilitationJUVENILE AND FAMILY COURT JOURNAL, Issue 3 2002JILL MARIE D'ANGELO PH.D ABSTRACT An instrument was developed to measure whether judges perceive the likelihood of rehabilitation to be influenced by extra-legal factors. A self-administered questionnaire was sent to 1,040 juvenile court judges across the United States. Two indices-extra-legal and legal-were created to measure the relationship between judges' perceptions and the factors they consider in their transfer decisions. Primary analysis used frequencies, cross-tabulations, and measures of association. The factors that judges may consider in their transfer decisions are specified and vary according to state statutes. Extra-legal factors are never included in the statutes as factors that may be considered. Nonetheless, the findings suggest that judges consider extra-legal factors in determining an offender's likelihood of rehabilitation. The results suggest that both male and non-minority judges' perceive that extra-legal characteristics affect an offender's likelihood of rehabilitation. All judges seem to believe that family structure and prior record are almost equally important factors in determining offenders' likelihood of rehabilitation. Thus, although judges consider legal factors in determining an offender's likelihood of rehabilitation, they also include criteria not explicitly permitted by law. [source] Pelvic Exercises Reduce Likelihood of Incontinence During and After PregnancyNURSING FOR WOMENS HEALTH, Issue 3 2003Carolyn Davis Cockey MLS executive editor No abstract is available for this article. [source] Sexual Partnerships in Britain: Characteristics Differ By Gender and Predict Likelihood of Condom UsePERSPECTIVES ON SEXUAL AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH, Issue 1 2009D. Hollander No abstract is available for this article. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||