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Latter Model (latter + model)
Selected AbstractsAmbiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of PreferencesECONOMETRICA, Issue 6 2006Fabio Maccheroni We characterize, in the Anscombe,Aumann framework, the preferences for which there are a utility functionu on outcomes and an ambiguity indexc on the set of probabilities on the states of the world such that, for all acts f and g, . The function u represents the decision maker's risk attitudes, while the index c captures his ambiguity attitudes. These preferences include the multiple priors preferences of Gilboa and Schmeidler and the multiplier preferences of Hansen and Sargent. This provides a rigorous decision-theoretic foundation for the latter model, which has been widely used in macroeconomics and finance. [source] Lithology and hydrocarbon mapping from multicomponent seismic dataGEOPHYSICAL PROSPECTING, Issue 2 2010Hüseyin Özdemir ABSTRACT Elastic rock properties can be estimated from prestack seismic data using amplitude variation with offset analysis. P-wave, S-wave and density ,reflectivities', or contrasts, can be inverted from angle-band stacks. The ,reflectivities' are then inverted to absolute acoustic impedance, shear impedance and density. These rock properties can be used to map reservoir parameters through all stages of field development and production. When P-wave contrast is small, or gas clouds obscure reservoir zones, multicomponent ocean-bottom recording of converted-waves (P to S or Ps) data provides reliable mapping of reservoir boundaries. Angle-band stacks of multicomponent P-wave (Pz) and Ps data can also be inverted jointly. In this paper Aki-Richards equations are used without simplifications to invert angle-band stacks to ,reflectivities'. This enables the use of reflection seismic data beyond 30° of incident angles compared to the conventional amplitude variation with offset analysis. It, in turn, provides better shear impedance and density estimates. An important input to amplitude variation with offset analysis is the Vs/Vp ratio. Conventional methods use a constant or a time-varying Vs/Vp model. Here, a time- and space-varying model is used during the computation of the ,reflectivities'. The Vs/Vp model is generated using well log data and picked horizons. For multicomponent data applications, the latter model can also be generated from processing Vs/Vp models and available well data. Reservoir rock properties such as ,,, ,,, Poisson's ratio and bulk modulus can be computed from acoustic impedance, shear impedance and density for pore fill and lithology identification. , and , are the Lamé constants and , is density. These estimations can also be used for a more efficient log property mapping. Vp/Vs ratio or Poisson's ratio, ,, and weighted stacks, such as the one computed from ,, and ,/,, are good gas/oil and oil/water contact indicators, i.e., pore fill indicators, while ,, mainly indicates lithology. ,, is also affected by pressure changes. Results from a multicomponent data set are used to illustrate mapping of gas, oil and water saturation and lithology in a Tertiary sand/shale setting. Whilst initial log crossplot analysis suggested that pore fill discrimination may be possible, the inversion was not successful in revealing fluid effects. However, rock properties computed from acoustic impedance, shear impedance and density estimates provided good lithology indicators; pore fill identification was less successful. Neural network analysis using computed rock properties provided good indication of sand/shale distribution away from the existing wells and complemented the results depicted from individual rock property inversions. [source] Statistical downscaling relationships for precipitation in the Netherlands and North GermanyINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2002Björn-R. Abstract The statistical linkage of daily precipitation to the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data is described for De Bilt and Maastricht (Netherlands), and for Hamburg, Hanover and Berlin (Germany), using daily data for the period 1968,97. Two separate models were used to describe the daily precipitation at a particular site: an additive logistic model for rainfall occurrence and a generalized additive model for wet-day rainfall. Several dynamical variables and atmospheric moisture were included as predictor variables. The relative humidity at 700 hPa was considered as the moisture variable for rainfall occurrence modelling. For rainfall amount modelling, two options were compared: (i) the use of the specific humidity at 700 hPa, and (ii) the use of both the relative humidity at 700 hPa and precipitable water. An application is given with data from a time-dependent greenhouse gas forcing experiment using the coupled ECHAM4/OPYC3 atmosphere,ocean general circulation model for the periods 1968,97 and 2070,99. The fitted statistical relationships were used to estimate the changes in the mean number of wet days and the mean rainfall amounts for the winter and summer halves of the year at De Bilt, Hanover and Berlin. A decrease in the mean number of wet days was found. Despite this decrease, an increase in the mean seasonal rainfall amounts is predicted if specific humidity is used in the model for wet-day rainfall. This is caused by the larger atmospheric water content in the future climate. The effect of the increased atmospheric moisture is smaller if the alternative wet-day rainfall amount model with precipitable water and relative humidity is applied. Except for an anomalous change in mean winter rainfall at Hanover, the estimated changes from the latter model correspond quite well with those from the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model. Despite the flexibility of generalized additive models, the rainfall amount model systematically overpredicts the mean rainfall amounts in situations where extreme rainfall could be expected. Interaction between predictor effects has to be incorporated to reduce this bias. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Kinetics of degradation of adenosine triphosphate in chill-stored rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, Issue 6 2005Peter Howgate Summary Trout that had been held in freshwater or in sea water were stored at 0, 5, or 10 °C, and in the case of sea-water-held trout, also at 15 °C. Samples were taken during storage for analysis of ATP-derived metabolites. The kinetics of degradation of ATP were investigated using two mathematical models, one depending on only endogenous enzymes acting in a sequence of consecutive first order reactions, and one assuming inosine was additionally converted to hypoxanthine by bacterial action. The former model adequately fitted the data from trout held in sea water, but the latter model was a better fit to data from the trout held in freshwater. The activation energy of loss of inosine monophosphate was estimated to be 17.4 kcal mol,1. [source] Resource variability, aggregation and direct density dependence in an open context: the local regulation of an African elephant populationJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2008Simon Chamaillé-Jammes Summary 1An emerging perspective in the study of density dependence is the importance of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of resources. Although this is well understood in temperate ungulates, few studies have been conducted in tropical environments where both food and water are limiting resources. 2We studied the regulation of one of the world's largest elephant populations in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. The study period started in 1986 when the population was released from culling. Using census data we investigated changes in elephant abundance with respect to rainfall and density across the entire park and across waterholes. 3The population more than doubled since culling stopped. The population increased continuously during the first 6 years, and then fluctuated widely at about 30 000 individuals. Immigration processes must have been involved in the increase of the population size. 4Population growth rates were negatively related to previous population density by a convex relationship, and negatively related to the ratio of previous population density on annual rainfall by a linear relationship. However, only this latter model (i.e. assuming a fluctuating carrying capacity related to annual rainfall) produced realistic dynamics. Overall, population decreased during dry years when the elephant density was high. 5During dry years there were fewer waterholes retaining water during the dry season and consequently elephant numbers at waterholes increased, while their aggregation level across waterholes decreased. On the long-run elephant numbers increased only at the less crowded waterholes. 6We suggest that the interaction between population size and the available foraging range determined by the number of active waterholes during the dry season controls the park population. 7Our results emphasize the need to understand how key-resource areas cause resource-based aggregation, which ultimately influences the strength of density dependence. More specifically, this study suggests that climate variability strongly affects local elephant population dynamics through changes in surface-water availability. Finally, as dispersal is likely to be an important driver of the dynamics of this population, our results support views that a metapopulation framework should be endorsed for elephant management in open contexts. [source] Forecasting UK industrial production over the business cycleJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 6 2001Paul W. Simpson Abstract This paper examines the information available through leading indicators for modelling and forecasting the UK quarterly index of production. Both linear and non-linear specifications are examined, with the latter being of the Markov-switching type as used in many recent business cycle applications. The Markov-switching models perform relatively poorly in forecasting the 1990s production recession, but a three-indicator linear specification does well. The leading indicator variables in this latter model include a short-term interest rate, the stock market dividend yield and the optimism balance from the quarterly CBI survey. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Finite-element heat-transfer analysis of a PEEK-steel sliding pair in a pin-on-disc configurationLUBRICATION SCIENCE, Issue 1 2001László Kónya Abstract Finite-element (FE) thermal models have been developed in order to study the temperature distribution in a sliding pair comprising a poly(ether ether ketone) (PEEK) pin and a steel disc in a pin-on-disc configuration. First, a moving heat source model for the disc was created. An alternative distributed heat source model was also produced in order to reduce computing time for the evaluation of the moving heat source model by some orders of magnitude. This latter model gave the same results as the moving heat source model, except for a small region just below the moving heat source. On the basis of the distributed heat source approach, a complete axisymmetric FE model for the disc side (taking the effect of thermal resistance between the assembled components into consideration) and a steady-state quarter model for the pin were developed. Water cooling and air cooling of the steel shaft were also compared. It was found that air cooling allowed a higher temperature in the contact region of the two sliding partners. The experimental results obtained with thermocouples and a thermal camera showed good agreement with the model predictions. [source] Beta-helix model for the filamentous haemagglutinin adhesin of Bordetella pertussis and related bacterial secretory proteinsMOLECULAR MICROBIOLOGY, Issue 2 2001Andrey V. Kajava Bordetella pertussis establishes infection by attaching to epithelial cells of the respiratory tract. One of its adhesins is filamentous haemagglutinin (FHA), a 500-Å-long secreted protein that is rich in ,-structure and contains two regions, R1 and R2, of tandem 19-residue repeats. Two models have been proposed in which the central shaft is (i) a hairpin made up of a pairing of two long antiparallel ,-sheets; or (ii) a ,-helix in which the polypeptide chain is coiled to form three long parallel ,-sheets. We have analysed a truncated variant of FHA by electron microscopy (negative staining, shadowing and scanning transmission electron microscopy of unstained specimens): these observations support the latter model. Further support comes from detailed sequence analysis and molecular modelling studies. We applied a profile search method to the sequences adjacent to and between R1 and R2 and found additional ,covert' copies of the same motifs that may be recognized in overt form in the R1 and R2 sequence repeats. Their total number is sufficient to support the tenet of the ,-helix model that the shaft domain , a 350 Å rod , should consist of a continuous run of these motifs, apart from loop inserts. The N-terminus, which does not contain such repeats, was found to be weakly homologous to cyclodextrin transferase, a protein of known immunoglobulin-like structure. Drawing on crystal structures of known ,-helical proteins, we developed structural models of the coil motifs putatively formed by the R1 and R2 repeats. Finally, we applied the same profile search method to the sequence database and found several other proteins , all large secreted proteins of bacterial provenance , that have similar repeats and probably also similar structures. [source] Accelerated fatigue properties of unidirectional carbon/epoxy composite materialsPOLYMER COMPOSITES, Issue 2 2006Hsing-Sung Chen It has been confirmed that polymer matrix composites possess viscoelastic behavior. This means that one could accelerate the fatigue testing by changing the stress amplitude, frequency, or temperature. This study is to investigate the accelerated fatigue properties, which are resulted from the viscoelastic behavior, of carbon/epoxy composites and to predict their fatigue life. For this purpose, a series of fatigue tests of unidirectional specimens are conducted at room temperature under different stress ratios and stress frequencies. A group of sigmoid S-N curves, which are suitable for the whole fatigue life, and the corresponding parameters are developed for different cyclic loading conditions. A transformation method, which can transform a reference S-N curve to the corresponding S-N curve of the assigned fatigue conditions, is established by the parameters. And this S-N curve can be utilized to predict the fatigue life of the composite at the assigned stress ratio or stress frequency. The comparison between the linear and sigmoid S-N curves is also carried out to show the advantages of the latter model in the whole fatigue life. POLYM. COMPOS., 27:138,146, 2006. © 2006 Society of Plastics Engineers [source] Tree Community Change across 700 km of Lowland Amazonian Forest from the Andean Foothills to BrazilBIOTROPICA, Issue 5 2008Nigel C. A. Pitman ABSTRACT We describe patterns of tree community change along a 700-km transect through terra firme forests of western Amazonia, running from the base of the Andes in Ecuador to the Peru,Brazil border. Our primary question is whether floristic variation at large scales arises from many gradual changes or a few abrupt ones. Data from 54 1-ha tree plots along the transect support the latter model, showing two sharp discontinuities in community structure at the genus level. One is located near the Ecuador,Peru border, where the suite of species that dominates large areas of Ecuadorean forest declines abruptly in importance to the east. This discontinuity is underlain by a subterranean paleoarch and congruent with a change in soil texture. A second discontinuity is associated with the shift from clay to white sand soils near Iquitos. We hypothesize that the first discontinuity is part of an edaphic boundary that runs along the Andean piedmont and causes a transition from tree communities preferring richer, younger soils near the base of the Andes to those preferring poorer, older soils farther east. Because the floristic changes observed at this discontinuity are conserved for large distances to the east and west of it, the discontinuity is potentially key for understanding floristic variation in western Amazonia. The significant floristic turnover at the Ecuador,Peru border suggests that the only large protected area in the region,Ecuador's Yasuní National Park,is not adequate protection for the very diverse tree communities that cover vast areas of northern Peru. RESUMEN Describimos cambios en la comunidad de árboles a lo largo de un transecto de 700 km que atraviesa los bosques de tierra firme de la Amazonía occidental, desde la base de los Andes en Ecuador hasta la frontera Perú-Brasil. Nuestra pregunta principal es si la variación florística a grandes escalas es generada a base de muchos cambios graduales o en unos pocos cambios abruptos. Datos de 54 parcelas de árboles de 1 ha a lo largo del transecto apoyan el segundo modelo, mostrando dos discontinuidades bien definidas en la estructura de la comunidad a nivel de género. Una discontinuidad está localizada cerca de la frontera Ecuador-Perú, donde el grupo de especies que domina grandes áreas de la Amazonía ecuatoriana declina abruptamente en importancia hacia el este. Esta discontinuidad está asociada con un paleoarco subterráneo y es congruente con cambios en la textura del suelo. Una segunda discontinuidad está asociada con un cambio de suelos arcillosos a suelos de arena blanca cerca de Iquitos. Sugerimos que la primera discontinuidad es parte de un limite edáfico que corre a lo largo del piedemonte andino y causa una transición de comunidades de árboles que prefieren suelos más fértiles y jóvenes cerca de los Andes, a aquellos que prefieren suelos más pobres y antiguos hacia el este. Ya que los cambios florísticos observados en esta discontinuidad se conservan por grandes distancias hacia el este y oeste, la discontinuidad es potencialmente clave para entender la variación florística en la Amazonía occidental. El importante recambio florístico en la frontera Ecuador-Perú sugiere que la única gran área protegida en la región,el Parque Nacional Yasuní en Ecuador,no presta protección adecuada a las muy diversas comunidades de árboles en el norte del Perú. [source] | ||||||||||||||||