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La Niña Events (la + nina_event)
Selected AbstractsImpacts of the basin-wide Indian Ocean SSTA on the South China Sea summer monsoon onsetINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2008Yuan Yuan Abstract This article explores the impacts of the Indian Ocean basin-scale sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon onset. Basin-wide warming in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is found to occur in the spring following an El Niño event, and the opposite occurs for a La Niña event. Such changes of the Indian Ocean SSTA apparently prolong the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on the subsequent Asian summer monsoon, mainly through modifying the strength of the Philippine Sea anti-cyclone. Warming in the TIO induces an anomalous reversed Walker circulation over the tropical Indo,Pacific Ocean, which leads to descending motion, and hence suppressed convection in the western Pacific. The intensified Philippine Sea anti-cyclone in May and June advances more westward and prevents the extension of the Indian Ocean westerly flow into the SCS region, thereby causing a late SCS monsoon onset. The case is opposite for the TIO cooling such that the Philippine Sea anti-cyclone weakens and retreats eastward, thus favouring an early onset of the SCS monsoon. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The effect of large-scale circulation on precipitation and streamflow in the Gulf of California continental watershedINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2003Luis Brito-Castillo Abstract The interannual variability of summer and winter rainfall and streamflow in the Gulf of California continental watershed is compared. Varimax-rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to 15 streamflow series, in the period from 1960 to 1990, and two regions are defined: a central region and a southern region. Results show that in both regions, between 1944 and 1999, the long-term rainfall variability is well explained by the long-term streamflow variability in both seasons, the result being statistically significant at the 95% level. We conclude that regional streamflows in that period are climate driven. This conclusion is reinforced when we show that the large-scale circulation (700 hPa heights) explains: (i) wet and dry conditions in both regions; (ii) conditions of wet and dry years with the same signal of El Niño and La Niña events; and (iii) long-term periods in association with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). When the PDO is in its warm phase, summers are likely to be dry with an El Niño event and wet with a La Niña event. In the cool phase of the PDO, summers are influenced by more localized events (i.e. the position of the subtropical continental ridge). In winter, warm and cool phases of the PDO are likely to be associated with wet and dry winters respectively. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] El Niño, climate change, and Southern African climateENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 4 2001Simon J. Mason Abstract The El Niño phenomenon involves a large-scale warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. Recent developments in the El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have raised concerns about climate change. In this review paper, these recent developments are critically assessed and forecasts of possible future changes are reviewed. Since the late-1970s, El Niño episodes have been unusually recurrent, while the frequency of strong La Niña events has been low. Prolonged/recurrent warm event conditions of the first half of the 1990s were the result of the persistence of an anomalously warm pool near the date line, which, in turn, may be part of an abrupt warming trend in tropical sea-surface temperatures that occurred in the late-1970s. The abrupt warming of tropical sea-surface temperatures has been attributed to the enhanced-greenhouse effect, but may be indicative of inter-decadal variability: earlier changes in the frequency of ENSO events and earlier persistent El Niño and La Niña sequences have occurred. Most forecasts of ENSO variability in a doubled-CO2 climate suggest that the recent changes in the tropical Pacific are anomalous. Of potential concern, however, is a possible reduction in the predictability of ENSO events given a warmer background climate. El Niño events usually are associated with below-normal rainfall over much of southern Africa. Mechanisms for this influence on southern African climate are discussed, and the implications of possible changes in ENSO variability on the climate of the region are assessed. Recent observed changes in southern African climate and their possible relationships with trends in ENSO variability are investigated. The El Niño influence on rainfall over southern Africa occurs largely because of a weakening of tropical convection over the subcontinent. A warming of the Indian Ocean during El Niño events appears to be important in providing a teleconnection from the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The abrupt warming of the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans in the late-1970s is probably partly responsible for increasing air temperatures over southern Africa, and may have contributed to a prolongation of predominantly dry conditions. A return to a wet phase appears to have occurred, despite the persistence of anomalously high sea-surface temperatures associated with the late-1970s warming, and a record-breaking El Niño in 1997/98. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] From small-scale habitat loopholes to decadal cycles: a habitat-based hypothesis explaining fluctuation in pelagic fish populations off PeruFISH AND FISHERIES, Issue 4 2004Arnaud Bertrand Abstract The Peru-Humboldt Current system (HCS) supports the world's largest pelagic fisheries. Among the world's eastern boundary current systems, it is the most exposed to high climatic stress and is directly affected by El Niño and La Niña events. In this volatile ecosystem, fish have been led to develop adaptive strategies in space and time. In this paper, we attempt to understand the mechanisms underlying such strategies, focusing on the El Niño 1997,98 in Peru from which an extensive set of hydrographic, capture and acoustic survey data are available. An integrated analysis of the data is crucial, as each has substantial shortcomings individually; for example, both catch data and acoustic surveys may easily lead to wrong conclusions. Existing hypotheses on anchovy and sardine alternations lead us to a ,habitat-based' synthetic hypothesis. Using our data, an integrated approach evaluated how fish responded to habitat variation, and determined the consequences in terms of fish-population variability. Various factors occurring at a range of different spatio-temporal scales were considered: interdecadal regime (warm ,El Viejo'/cool ,La Vieja' decadal scale); strength and the duration of the El Niño Southern Oscillation event (interannual scale); population condition before the event (interannual scale); fishing pressure and other predation (annual scale); changes in reproductive behaviour (intra-annual scale); presence of local upwelling (local scale). During El Niño 1997,98, anchovy was able to exploit a small-scale temporal and spatial ,loophole' inside the general unfavourable conditions. Moreover, sardine did not do better than anchovy during this El Niño and was not able to take advantage of the ,loophole' opened by this short-term event. Our results question the traditional view that El Niño is bad for anchovy and good for sardine. [source] The influences of the Southern and North Atlantic Oscillations on climatic surface variables in TurkeyHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 6 2005M. Ça, atay Karabörk Abstract In this study, Turkish climatic variables (precipitation, stream flow and maximum and minimum temperatures) were first analysed in association with both the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The relationships between Turkish maximum and minimum monthly temperatures and the extreme phases of the SO (El Niño and La Niña events) were examined. The results of this analysis showed that relationships between Turkish monthly maximum temperatures and El Niño and La Niña contain some complexity still to be identified, because both events produce a signal indicating a correspondence with cold anomalies in the aggregate composites. A relationship between turkish minimum temperatures and El Niño was detected in western Anatolia, whereas there was no significant and consistent signal associated with La Niña. Moreover a series of cross-correlation analyses was carried out to demonstrate the teleconnections between the climatic variables and both the NAO and SO. The NAO during winter was found to influence precipitation and stream-flow patterns. In contrast temperature patterns appeared to be less sensitive to the NAO. Furthermore, lag-correlation results indicated a prediction potential for both precipitation and stream-flow variables in connection with the NAO. Simultaneous and time-lag correlations between the climatic variables and the SO index, in general, indicated weaker relationships in comparison with those for the NAO. These analyses also showed that the influences of the SO on Turkish temperature data are negligible. The outcomes were presented in conjunction with an explanation regarding physical mechanisms behind the implied teleconnections. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity in the South China SeaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2010Andy Zung-Ching Goh Abstract This study attempts to identify the factors affecting annual tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the South China Sea (SCS) using data during the period 1965,2005. The results indicate that the total number of TCs and number of TCs entering the SCS from the Western North Pacific are below normal in El Niño events but above normal during La Niña events. However, for TCs formed inside the SCS, the difference in numbers between the two phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not as obvious. In addition, the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) generally favours less TCs in all categories, while the negative PDO phase favours more. These results may be explained by the fact that the ENSO and the PDO affect TC behaviour through altering the conditions in the WNP to be favourable or unfavourable for TC genesis and movement into the SCS. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] El Niño,southern oscillation events and associated European winter precipitation anomaliesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2005D. Pozo-Vázquez Abstract The winter precipitation anomalies in the European area have been analysed over the period 1900,98 based on the El Niño,Southern oscillation (ENSO) state. A set of winter and autumn ENSO events is first selected using the Sea-Surface temperature (SST) data of the Niño 3 region, with the constraint that the ENSO event is well developed during the winter and autumn of study, and that it is an extreme event. Cold and warm ENSO events and periods that can be regarded as normal are selected. For the selected winter ENSO events and for the winter following the selected autumn ENSO events, composites of European winter precipitation anomalies have been obtained and compared with each other. A study of the consistency among events of the relationship between ENSO and precipitation anomalies was also carried out. The analysis of the winter precipitation anomalies based on the selected winter ENSO events shows the existence, for the European area and during La Niña events, of a statistically significant precipitation anomaly pattern with positive precipitation anomalies north of the British Isles and in the Scandinavian area and negative anomalies in southern Europe, resembling the precipitation pattern associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Particularly, for the southwestern area of the Iberian Peninsula, the negative anomaly reaches 20% of the winter average precipitation. The consistency analysis shows that this precipitation pattern is not the result of a few major events, but rather that it is stable and qualitatively similar to that found during the positive phase of the NAO. A non-linear response to ENSO is found in the eastern Mediterranean area: negative precipitation anomalies are found, having similar amplitude anomalies, both during El Niño and La Niña events. The analysis of the precipitation anomalies for the winter following the selected autumn ENSO events shows very similar results to those found for the previous analysis, thus suggesting the existence of a potential source of seasonal forecasting of European precipitation. An analysis of the sensitivity of the precipitation anomalies to the strength of the ENSO events shows that, when the strength of the ENSO increases, the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies does not change, but the area influenced and the coherence between events do increase slightly. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The effect of large-scale circulation on precipitation and streamflow in the Gulf of California continental watershedINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2003Luis Brito-Castillo Abstract The interannual variability of summer and winter rainfall and streamflow in the Gulf of California continental watershed is compared. Varimax-rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to 15 streamflow series, in the period from 1960 to 1990, and two regions are defined: a central region and a southern region. Results show that in both regions, between 1944 and 1999, the long-term rainfall variability is well explained by the long-term streamflow variability in both seasons, the result being statistically significant at the 95% level. We conclude that regional streamflows in that period are climate driven. This conclusion is reinforced when we show that the large-scale circulation (700 hPa heights) explains: (i) wet and dry conditions in both regions; (ii) conditions of wet and dry years with the same signal of El Niño and La Niña events; and (iii) long-term periods in association with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). When the PDO is in its warm phase, summers are likely to be dry with an El Niño event and wet with a La Niña event. In the cool phase of the PDO, summers are influenced by more localized events (i.e. the position of the subtropical continental ridge). In winter, warm and cool phases of the PDO are likely to be associated with wet and dry winters respectively. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Variability of total and solid precipitation in the Canadian Arctic from 1950 to 1995INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2002Rajmund Przybylak Abstract Trends in solid and total precipitation, as well as in the ratio of solid to total precipitation (hereinafter S/T ratio), in the Canadian Arctic in recent decades have been investigated. In addition, the influence of air temperature and circulation factors (atmospheric and oceanic) on the above-mentioned precipitation characteristics have been examined. Recently updated and adjusted data by the Canadian Climate Centre from 16 stations located in the Canadian Arctic and two stations from the sub-Arctic were used for the investigation. The southern boundary of the study area was taken after Atlas Arktiki (Tresjinkov, A. 1985. Glavnoye Upravlenye Geodeziy i Kartografiy: Moscow; 204 pp). The majority of the data cover the period from 1950 to 1995. A statistically significant increase in all kinds of areally averaged seasonal and annual precipitation for the Canadian Arctic over the period 1950,95 has been found. On the other hand, the S/T ratio did not change significantly, except for summer values, and its behaviour was also in accord with small variations noted in air temperature. An increase in air temperature in the Canadian Arctic most often led to a rise in all kinds of annual precipitation sums, but only when the warmest and coldest years were chosen based on individual stations. The pattern of the relationship is significantly more complicated, and can even be opposite to that presented above, when the sets of the warmest and coldest years are chosen based on the areally averaged annual temperature for the Canadian Arctic. Significantly more stable results of changes were found for the S/T ratio, which in warmer periods was usually lower. However, more detailed and reliable investigations of temperature,precipitation relationships conducted for individual stations showed that though the S/T ratio in warmer periods may well be lower, this only applies to the southern (warmer) part of the Canadian Arctic (<70 °N). During periods with high positive values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), a decrease in precipitation is observed in the south-eastern part of the Canadian Arctic, i.e. in the area where strong cooling was also observed. During El Niño events most of the Canadian Arctic had both greater precipitation and a higher S/T ratio than during La Niña events. The most unequivocal results of precipitation and S/T ratio changes were found for changes in the Arctic Ocean circulation regimes. In almost the whole study area, a lower precipitation and S/T ratio were noted during the anticyclonic circulation regime in the Arctic Ocean. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Tornado climatology of Canada revisited: tornado activity during different phases of ENSOINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2001David Etkin Abstract Tornadoes are a significant hazard in some parts of Canada, particularly in the southern Prairie provinces and southwestern Ontario, though they are not as common as in some parts of the US. Since the early 1980s, the regional weather offices in Canada have been recording tornado event information on a routine basis, and thus data exists that can be used to update older analyses of tornado frequencies. On average, about 60 tornadoes are reported each year, though many doubtless occur that are not observed or recorded in the Environment Canada records. An analysis of tornado frequencies with El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events suggest that the cooler La Niña events tend to suppress tornadic activity, while El Niño events tend to enhance it (though there are exceptions to this trend). Copyright © 2001 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Short-term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central CaliforniaAPPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 2 2010Mónica García Abstract Question: Does vegetation buffer or amplify rainfall perturbations, and is it possible to forecast rainfall using mesoscale climatic signals? Location: Central California (USA). Methods: The risk of dry or wet rainfall events was evaluated using conditional probabilities of rainfall depending on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The propagation of rainfall perturbations on vegetation was calculated using cross-correlations between monthly seasonally adjusted (SA) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and SA antecedent rainfall at different time-scales. Results: In this region, El Niño events are associated with higher than normal winter precipitation (probability of 73%). Opposite but more predictable effects are found for La Niña events (89% probability of dry events). Chaparral and evergreen forests showed the longest persistence of rainfall effects (0-8 months). Grasslands and wetlands showed low persistence (0-2 months), with wetlands dominated by non-stationary patterns. Within the region, the NDVI spatial patterns associated with higher (lower) rainfall are homogeneous (heterogeneous), with the exception of evergreen forests. Conclusions: Knowledge of the time-scale of lagged effects of the non-seasonal component of rainfall on vegetation greenness, and the risk of winter rainfall anomalies lays the foundation for developing a forecasting model for vegetation greenness. Our results also suggest greater competitive advantage for perennial vegetation in response to potential rainfall increases in the region associated with climate change predictions, provided that the soil allows storing extra rainfall. [source] A dynamical model for characterising seasonality effects on eelgrass plastochron intervalsANNALS OF APPLIED BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2010E. Solana-Arellano The plastochron interval is widely used to calculate age and rates of productivity in many plants, including seagrasses. However, plant responses to changing environmental conditions, including seasonal patterns, can introduce substantial errors in methods for calculating age and rates of growth. We propose a generalised method for characterising seasonal variability in eelgrass plastochron values based on a model that consists of a linear combination of a trend, a seasonality component and a stochastic noise component. The model was validated using data obtained biweekly during 1998,2003 in a Zostera marina meadow in a coastal lagoon in northwestern Baja California. Plastochron intervals exhibited marked interannual and seasonal variability as well as in the timing of plastochron interval (PI) minima and maxima. Correlation analyses indicated that sea surface temperature is a fundamental forcing factor for the plastochron interval, whose local variability is influenced by the onset of ,El Niño' and ,La Niña' events. The proposed model provided reliable interpretations that elicited the existence of seasonal processes which are usually masked by multimodal changes in the plastochron interval. Using successive averages of seasonal PI to describe annual cycles resulted in reliable leaf-growth assessments as well as in better determinations of shoot age than those calculated using a single annual mean. [source] | ||||||||||