Interest Rate Shocks (interest + rate_shock)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Selected Abstracts

Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing Countries

ECONOMICA, Issue 295 2007
This paper investigates the hypothesis that in a small open economy flexible exchange rates act as a ,shock absorber' and mitigate the effects of external shocks more effectively than fixed exchange rate regimes. Using a sample of 42 developing countries, the paper assesses whether the responses of real GDP, the trade balance and the real exchange rate to world output and world real interest rate shocks differ across exchange rate regimes. The paper shows that there are significant differences in the variability of macroeconomic aggregates under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. [source]

Firm Size, Industry Mix and the Regional Transmission of Monetary Policy in Germany

Ivo J. M. Arnold
Monetary transmission; regional effects; industry effects; firm size Abstract. This paper estimates the impact of interest rate shocks on regional output in Germany over the period from 1970 to 2000. We use a vector autoregression (VAR) model to obtain impulse responses, which reveal differences in the output responses to monetary policy shocks across ten German provinces. Next, we investigate whether these differences can be related to structural features of the regional economies, such as industry mix, firm size, bank size and openness. An additional analysis of the volatility of real GDP growth for the period 1992,2000 includes the Eastern provinces. We also present evidence on the interrelationship between firm size and industry, and compare our measure of firm size with those used in previous studies. We conclude that the differential regional effects of monetary policy are related to industrial composition, but not to firm size or bank size. [source]

Monetary Policy, Agency Costs and Output Dynamics

Ludger Linnemann
Interest rate policy; financial accelerator; sticky prices and wages Abstract. This paper examines the role of financial market imperfections for output reactions to nominal interest rate shocks. Empirical evidence shows a hump-shaped impulse response function of output and suggests that credit supply co-moves with output. A monetary business cycle model with staggered price setting is presented where the firms' outlays for capital and labor must be covered by the sum of net worth of entrepreneurs and loans in the form of debt contracts. These properties are shown to generate a hump-shaped impulse response of output, which takes on the smooth and persistent appearance of the empirical output response when nominal wages are set in a staggered way, too. [source]

Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Markets: A Non-Crisis Setting,

Uluc Aysun
The literature has established that emerging market economies are better insulated from large external shocks during a financial crisis when they adopt a flexible exchange rate regime. Looking at the strength of firms' balance sheets, this paper shows that the opposite holds true in non-crisis periods. The reason is that balance sheets and thus spending decisions are less affected by external shocks under fixed regimes. This result is obtained through several theoretical and empirical methodologies that are useful for identifying balance sheet effects in a non-crisis setting. Simulations reveal a larger (smaller) output response under flexible regimes when these effects are included (excluded). Although the transmission of foreign interest rate shocks to domestic interest rates is stronger under fixed regimes, it appears the limited effects on balance sheets generate a more muted output response. [source]

Consumer credit and monetary policy in Malaysia

Salina Hj.
Abstract What is the impact of monetary policy on the Malaysian consumer? The study addresses this issue by empirically investigating the consequences of interest rate shocks on consumer credit in Malaysia. The study relies on the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition analysis based on the structural Vector Auto-regression methodology. Apart from analysing the responses of aggregate consumer loans (ACL) to interest rate changes, further disaggregation is made in efforts to arrive at more detailed findings. In particular, the ACL data are categorized into loans for purchase of residential property, loans for personal uses, loans for credit cards, loans for purchase of consumer durables, loans for purchase of passenger cars and loans for purchase of securities. Through this disaggregation, the study shows the relative sensitivity of the various types of consumer loans to interest rate shocks. [source]

Financial Liberalization And The Sensitivity Of House Prices To Monetary Policy: Theory And Evidence

Matteo Iacoviello
We analyse the impact of financial liberalization on the link between monetary policy and house prices. We present a simple model of a small open economy subjectto credit constraints. The model shows that the higher the degree of financial liberalizationis, the stronger is the impact of interest rate shocks on house prices. We then usevector autoregressions to study the role of monetary policy shocks in house price fluctuations in Finland, Sweden and the UK, characterized by financial liberalizationepisodes over the last 20 years. We find that the response of house prices to interestrate surprises is bigger and more persistent in periods characterized by more liberalized financial markets. [source]

Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Malaysia

Mansor H. Ibrahim
E40; E52 The present paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy shocks on aggregate and eight sectoral outputs for Malaysia using vector autoregressive models. In line with many existing studies on Malaysia, the results are supportive of the real effects of monetary policy shocks. More importantly, we find evidence suggesting sector-specific responses to innovations in monetary policy. In response to positive interest rate shocks, we note that the manufacturing, construction, finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors seem to decline more than aggregate production. By contrast, we observe the relative insensitivities of agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water to interest rate changes. The results, therefore, seem to confirm potential disparities in the effect of monetary policy on real sectoral activities. [source]