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Interest Rates (interest + rate)
Kinds of Interest Rates Terms modified by Interest Rates Selected AbstractsMACRO-FINANCE MODELS OF INTEREST RATES AND THE ECONOMYTHE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 2010GLENN D. RUDEBUSCH During the past decade, much new research has combined elements of finance, monetary economics and macroeconomics in order to study the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the economy. In this survey, I describe three different strands of such interdisciplinary macro-finance term structure research. The first adds macroeconomic variables and structure to a canonical arbitrage-free finance representation of the yield curve. The second examines bond pricing and bond risk premiums in a canonical macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The third develops a new class of arbitrage-free term structure models that are empirically tractable and well suited to macro-finance investigations. [source] Sources of Bank Interest Rate RiskFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2002Donald R. Fraser We investigate bank stocks'sensitivity to changes in interest rates and the factors affecting this sensitivity. We focus on whether the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate risk is conditioned on certain balance sheet and income statement ratios. We find a significantly negative relation between bank stock returns and changes in interest rates over the period 1991,1996. We also find that bank characteristics measured from basic financial statement information explain bank stocks'sensitivity to interest rate changes. These results suggest that bank managers, analysts, and regulators can use this information to assess the relative risk exposure of banks. [source] Is Contemporary Interest Rate in Conflict with Islamic Ethics?KYKLOS INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, Issue 1 2008Erhun Kula SUMMARY This paper considers whether the modern interest rate theory is in conflict with Islamic values. Unfortunately, the issue is not sufficiently debated in economic and cognate literature and thus a mist surrounds the Islamic concept of interest (riba) and its use in the Moslem world that contains about 1.3 billion people and hundreds of billions of dollars of surplus funds. A substantial part of this money has not been made available to the commercial banking system as Islamists in particular keep their savings in the form of gold, precious stones or durable foreign currency, in residential or other safe places, believing that earning interest on savings is against the principles of Islam. This attitude by creating a shortage of funds for investment projects is hampering the economic development of many Moslem countries where standards of living are generally low. The finding of the paper is that only one component part of the time preference rate, namely pure time discount, may be objectionable from the Islamic as well as from secular viewpoints; the rest does not appear to be against Muslim ethics. However, a truly competitive financial market structure is likely to wipe away the excessive pure time discount rate leaving the market interest rate free from any objectionable parameter. [source] Threshold Dynamics of Short-term Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Implications for the Term StructureECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 1 2008Theofanis Archontakis This paper studies a nonlinear one-factor term structure model in discrete time. The short-term interest rate follows a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) process that allows for shifts in the intercept and the variance. In comparison with a linear model, we find empirical evidence in favour of the threshold model for Germany and the US. Based on the estimated short-rate dynamics we derive the implied arbitrage-free term structure of interest rates. Since analytical solutions are not feasible, bond prices are computed by means of Monte Carlo integration. The resulting term structure captures stylized facts of the data. In particular, it implies a nonlinear relation between long rates and the short rate. [source] Interest Rates, Stock Returns and Credit Spreads: Evidence from German EurobondsECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 1 2005Niklas Wagner We investigate daily variations in credit spreads on investment-grade Deutschemark-denominated Eurobonds during the challenging 1994,1998 period. Empirical results from a Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) two-factor regression, extended for correlated spread changes and heteroskedasticity, indicate strong persistence in spread changes. Consistent with theory and previous findings, changes in spreads are significantly negatively related to the term-structure level while, contrary to theory, the proxy for asset value does not yield a significant negative contribution. We even find a significant positive relation for Eurobonds with long maturity. Tentative interpretations are portfolio-rebalancing activities or differing risk factor sensitivities on short- vs. long-maturity bonds. [source] Convergence within the EU: Evidence from Interest RatesECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 2 2000Teresa Corzo Santamaria The economic and political changes which are taking place in Europe affect interest rates. This paper develops a two-factor model for the term structure of interest rates specially designed to apply to EMU countries. In addition to the participant country's short-term interest rate, we include as a second factor a ,European' short-term interest rate. We assume that the ,European' rate follows a mean reverting process. The domestic interest rate also follows a mean reverting process, but its convergence is to a stochastic mean which is identified with the ,European' rate. Closed-form solutions for prices of zero coupon discount bonds and options on these bonds are provided. A special feature of the model is that both the domestic and the European interest rate risks are priced. We also discuss an empirical estimation focusing on the Spanish bond market. The ,European' rate is proxied by the ecu's interest rate. Through a comparison of the performance of our convergence model with a Vasicek model for the Spanish bond market, we show that our model provides a better fit both in-sample and out-of sample and that the difference in performance between the models is greater the longer the maturity of the bonds. (J.E.L.: E43, C510). [source] The Impact of Interest Rates and The Housing Market on The UK EconomyECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 2 2004Adrian Cooper The Chancellor has asked Professor David Miles to examine the UK market for longer-term fixed rate mortgages. This paper by Adrian Cooper, which is part of a study commissioned by the Miles Review, presents the results of a series of simulations using the OEF Model of the UK economy to investigate the contribution of the housing market to macroeconomic volatility and the implications of changing the structure of mortgage finance from the current variable rate system linked to short-term interest rates to a fixed rate system linked to long rates. The main findings are that the housing market has been a contributor to past volatility in the UK economy, and that moving to a fixed rate structure would reduce the impact of a change in interest rates on key macroeconomic indicators. [source] Corporate Debt Issuance and the Historical Level of Interest RatesFINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2008Christopher B. Barry Using a sample that comprises more than 14,000 new issues of corporate debt for the period 1970-2001, we examine the relation between debt issues and the level of interest rates relative to historical levels. Consistent with recent survey evidence, we find that companies issue more debt, more debt relative to investment spending, and more debt compared to equity when interest rates are low relative to historical rates. The effects continue to hold when we control for other variables that influence debt issuance and when we account for refinancing. [source] On the Relationship Between Short- and Long-term Interest Rates,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2004Teruyoshi KobayashiArticle first published online: 13 DEC 200 This paper addresses issues regarding the relationship between short- and long-term interest rates. In the real world, an expansionary (contractionary) policy is normally followed by a fall (rise) in long-term rates. However, there exist exceptional cases in which short- and long-term rates move in opposite directions. This paper attempts to provide a formal explanation for such unusual phenomena using a variety of new Keynesian models. It turns out that the simultaneous occurrence of different economic shocks, to which the central bank should react, can explain this behaviour of long rates. [source] Testing Option Pricing Models with Stochastic Volatility, Random Jumps and Stochastic Interest RatesINTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCE, Issue 3-4 2002George J. Jiang In this paper, we propose a parsimonious GMM estimation and testing procedure for continuous-time option pricing models with stochastic volatility, random jump and stochastic interest rate. Statistical tests are performed on both the underlying asset return model and the risk-neutral option pricing model. Firstly, the underlying asset return models are estimated using GMM with valid statistical tests for model specification. Secondly, the preference related parameters in the risk-neutral distribution are estimated from observed option prices. Our findings confirm that the implied risk premiums for stochastic volatility, random jump and interest rate are overall positive and varying over time. However, the estimated risk-neutral processes are not unique, suggesting a segmented option market. In particular, the deep ITM call (or deep OTM put) options are clearly priced with higher risk premiums than the deep OTM call (or deep ITM put) options. Finally, while stochastic volatility tends to better price long-term options, random jump tends to price the short-term options better, and option pricing based on multiple risk-neutral distributions significantly outperforms that based on a single risk-neutral distribution. [source] The Structural Relation Between Mortgage and Market Interest RatesJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 9-10 2003Achla Marathe This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between primary and secondary mortgage markets and the short-term and long-term market interest rates. Using a series of monthly data on fixed rate mortgage rates and GNMA rates, we explore the dependence and speed of adjustment in these primary and secondary mortgage rates to each other as well as to the long and short-term government rates. The results indicate that residential mortgage rates in general, appear to follow the long-term rate and are not very sensitive to movements in the short-term interest rate. [source] Tax Clientele Effects in the Term Structure of UK Interest RatesJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 3-4 2001Eric J. Levin This paper tests for tax clientele effects in the term structure of UK interest rates. Five empirical models of the term structure of interest rates, incorporating tax effects, are estimated with daily data covering the period 31 March, 1995 to 3 August, 1995. In May 1995, the British government announced its intention to eliminate the tax exemption on capital gains from government bonds, but subsequently in July 1995 backtracked on some of its initial proposals. This period therefore forms the basis of a crude natural experiment in the sense that it provides an opportunity to examine tax clientele effects ,before' and ,after' an event which should have levelled greatly the taxing of government bonds. The empirical analysis suggests large tax clientele effects. However, there is little evidence of tax-specific term structures of interest rates. [source] Stochastic Volatility in a Macro-Finance Model of the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates 1961,2004JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, Issue 6 2008PETER D. SPENCER affine term structure model; macro finance; unit root; stochastic volatility This paper generalizes the standard homoscedastic macro-finance model by allowing for stochastic volatility, using the "square root" specification of the mainstream finance literature. Empirically, this specification dominates the standard model because it is consistent with the square root volatility found in macroeconomic time series. Thus it establishes an important connection between the stochastic volatility of the mainstream finance model and macro-economic volatility of the Okun,Friedman type. This research opens the way to a richer specification of both macro-economic and term structure models, incorporating the best features of both macro-finance and mainstream finance models. [source] Black's Model of Interest Rates as Options, Eigenfunction Expansions and Japanese Interest RatesMATHEMATICAL FINANCE, Issue 1 2004Viatcheslav Gorovoi Black's (1995) model of interest rates as options assumes that there is a shadow instantaneous interest rate that can become negative, while the nominal instantaneous interest rate is a positive part of the shadow rate due to the option to convert to currency. As a result of this currency option, all term rates are strictly positive. A similar model was independently discussed by Rogers (1995). When the shadow rate is modeled as a diffusion, we interpret the zero-coupon bond as a Laplace transform of the area functional of the underlying shadow rate diffusion (evaluated at the unit value of the transform parameter). Using the method of eigenfunction expansions, we derive analytical solutions for zero-coupon bonds and bond options under the Vasicek and shifted CIR processes for the shadow rate. This class of models can be used to model low interest rate regimes. As an illustration, we calibrate the model with the Vasicek shadow rate to the Japanese Government Bond data and show that the model provides an excellent fit to the Japanese term structure. The current implied value of the instantaneous shadow rate in Japan is negative. [source] Classical and Impulse Stochastic Control of the Exchange Rate Using Interest Rates and ReservesMATHEMATICAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2000Abel Cadenillas We consider the problem of a Central Bank that wants the exchange rate to be as close as possible to a given target, and in order to do that uses both the interest rate level and interventions in the foreign exchange market. We model this as a mixed classical-impulse stochastic control problem, and provide for the first time a solution to that kind of problem. We give examples of solutions that allow us to perform an interesting economic analysis of the optimal strategy of the Central Bank. [source] Regimes of Interest Rates, Income Shares, Savings and Investment: A Kaleckian Model and Empirical Estimations for some Advanced OECD EconomiesMETROECONOMICA, Issue 4 2003Eckhard Hein ABSTRACT The first part of the paper deals with the effects of an exogenous variation in the monetary interest rate on the real equilibrium position of the economic system in a Kaleckian effective demand model. Different regimes of accumulation are derived and it is shown that a negative relation between the interest rate and the equilibrium rates of capacity utilization, accumulation and profit usually expected in post-Keynesian theory only exists under special conditions. In the second part the model is applied to the data of some major OECD countries, the relevant coefficients are estimated and the relevance for an explanation of the course of GDP and capital stock growth since the early 1960s is discussed. [source] A Semiparametric Analysis of the Term Structure of the US Interest Rates,OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 4 2009Fabrizio Iacone Abstract The short end of the US$ term structure of interest rates is analysed allowing for the possibility of fractional integration and cointegration. This approach permits mean-reverting dynamics for the data and the existence of a common long run stochastic trend to be maintained simultaneously. We estimate the model for the period 1963,2006 and find it compatible with this structure. The restriction that the data are I(1) and the errors are I(0) is rejected, mainly because the latter still display long memory. This result is consistent with a model of monetary policy in which the Central Bank operates affecting contracts with short term maturity, and the impulses are transmitted to contracts with longer maturities and then to the final goals. However, the transmission of the impulses along the term structure cannot be modelled using the Expectations Hypothesis. [source] Mean Reversion of Interest Rates in the Eurocurrency MarketOXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 4 2001Jhy-Lin Wu One stylised fact to emerge from the empirical analysis of interest rates is that the unit-root hypothesis in nominal interest rates cannot be rejected. However, using the panel date unit-root test IM, Pesaran and Shin (1997), we find support for the mean-reverting property of Eurocurrency rates. Thus, neither a vector-error-correction model nor a vector autoregressive model in differences is appropriate for modelling Eurocurrency rates. Instead, conventional modelling strategies with level data are appropriate. Furthermore, the finding of stationary interest rates supports uncovered interest parity, and hence the convergence hypothesis of interest rates. This in turn suggests a limited role for a monetary authority to affect domestic interest rates. [source] Markov-Switching Mean Reversion in Short-Term Interest Rates: Evidence from East Asian Economies,THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 263 2007CHEW LIAN CHUA This paper employs a Markov-switching approach to model the dynamics of East Asian short rates. Regime changes are incorporated in standard unit root test to reveal periodic changes in the stationarity property of interest rates. There is evidence that three of the five short rates follow a random walk process in tranquil and low rates episodes but mean-revert in periods when rates are high and volatile. Singapore short rates are characterised by a random walk process, whereas the Philippines rates behave as a mean-reverting process in both regimes. Factors such as exchange rates, monetary policy and interest rate differentials vis-ā-vis US interest rates influence the likelihood of short rates being in a volatile state. The regime switching dynamics of interest rates carry important implications for policy-makers. [source] Testing the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Presence of a Potential Regime ShiftTHE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 2003Markku Lanne The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates is tested with monthly Eurodollar deposit rates for maturities of 1, 3 and 6 months covering the period 1983:1,1999:6. Classical regression based tests indicate rejection, while tests in a new model allowing for potential regime shifts that have not occurred in the sample period lend support to the expectations hypothesis. The results imply that the potential regime shift affected the expectations concerning the longer-term interest rate only in a short period at the beginning of the sample when the interest rates were highest. [source] Leasing in Russia: A Case StudyJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT & ACCOUNTING, Issue 2 2006Sergey V. Pakhtusov As Russia goes through the process of converting from a command to a market economy, many old business processes and standards had to be terminated and new methods implemented. Leasing is an example of a technique long in use in more developed economies that has been transplanted to Russia, with changes made to reflect the particular circumstances there. This paper examines the current state of leasing in Russia by concentrating on the experiences of one leasing company: Volgopromleasing. Interest rates and inflation rates that fluctuate widely and are sometimes extremely high, as well as a legislative environment that may be expected to change are some of the challenges faced by the firm. However, compensating opportunities exist: many Russian firms desperately need to update their equipment, the government is strongly interested in promoting rapid economic growth, and the legislation currently in effect favors leasing over other methods of acquiring fixed assets. Although leasing has the potential to assist Russian firms in modernizing and growing, and, therefore, to help the Russian economy in its effort to rapidly move to a new market economy, this can only occur in conjunction with other economic initiatives that also provide for growth and stabilization. [source] PREDICTING THE IMPACT OF ANTICIPATORY ACTION ON U.S. STOCK MARKET,AN EVENT STUDY USING ANFIS (A NEURAL FUZZY MODEL)COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE, Issue 2 2007P. Cheng In this study, the adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), a hybrid fuzzy neural network, is adopted to predict the actions of the investors (when and whether they buy or sell) in a stock market in anticipation of an event,changes in interest rate, announcement of its earnings by a major corporation in the industry, or the outcome of a political election for example. Generally, the model is relatively more successful in predicting when the investors take actions than what actions they take and the extent of their activities. The findings do demonstrate the learning and predicting potential of the ANFIS model in financial applications, but at the same time, suggest that some of the market behaviors are too complex to be predictable. [source] What Do Data Say About Monetary Policy, Bank Liquidity and Bank Risk Taking?ECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 2 2007Marcella Lucchetta This paper tests empirically the linkage between banks' investment and interbank lending decisions in response to interest rate changes. We draw conclusions for the monetary policy, which uses the interest rate as its main tool. Across European countries we find that the risk-free (i.e. monetary policy) interest rate negatively affects the liquidity retained by banks and the decision of a bank to be a lender in the interbank market. Instead, the interbank interest rate has a positive impact on these decisions. We also find that banks who lend show less risk-taking behaviour and tend to be smaller than those who are borrowers. Most importantly, the risk-free interest rate is positively correlated with loans investment and bank risk-taking behaviour. [source] Bank Mergers, Information, Default and the Price of CreditECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 1 2006Margarida Catalão- Lopes This paper addresses the impact of bank mergers on the price of firm credit, through an information channel. It is shown that, as bank mergers imply a wider spreading of information among banks concerning firms' past defaults, they may increase the expected revenue from lending. Therefore, interest rates may decline as long as a sufficiently competitive environment is preserved. A fall in interest rates, in turn, reduces the incentives for firms to strategically default, which reinforces the downward effect on the price of credit. The results are a function of the level of information sharing and of the sensitivity of the default probability to the interest rate. [source] The Taylor Rule and Dynamic Stability in a Small Macroeconomic ModelECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 3 2003David Chappell In this paper, we embed the Taylor interest rate rule in a simple macroeconomic model with Calvo contracts. We contrast this with the case in which the interest rate is determined by the conventional LM curve along with a fixed value for the monetary aggregate. We derive conditions under which the adjustment of the economy is characterized by a unique saddle,path and show that the conditions required for this to be the case are more stringent when the authorities adopt the Taylor rule. In both cases, the possible failure of the saddle,path condition arises when there are debt,deflation effects in the IS curve. If interest rates are set according to the Taylor rule, then debt,deflation is always enough to cause the failure of the saddle,path condition. However, when interest rates are determined by the LM curve then it is possible that the real balance effect from the LM curve may offset the debt,deflation effect and produce a saddle,path. (J.E.L. E4, E5). [source] Regional Integration and the Co-ordination of Capital Income TaxationECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 1 2002Valeria De Bonis This paper addresses the question of the need for income tax harmonization in the context of regional integration. It analyses the international distortions and fiscal interdependence arising in the presence of tax rate differentials both under a theoretical and an empirical perspective, and with reference to actual experiences of harmonization attempts. Attention is also paid to the influence of the countries' size on the results, to the strategic behaviour of countries under different international taxations rules, and to the relationships with the countries excluded by the integration process. International tax uniformity does not appear to be the preferable solution, even if some form of concerted agreements might help in reducing inefficiencies deriving from taxation differentials. For instance, in the case of highly mobile factors, like financial capital, if the integrating countries apply the source principle and the interest rate is the same across them, the source-based tax rate on non residents must equal the residence country tax rate on residents. Such a rule would allow the countries to set autonomously their tax rate and, at the same time, eliminate cross-border effects. If there are more than two integrating countries, the tax rates on non residents should discriminate according to the internal tax rate of the residence country. (J.E.L.: H87, F20, H20). [source] Survey Data and the Interest Rate Sensitivity of US Bank Stock ReturnsECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 2 2000H. A. Benink In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the interest rate sensitivity of the stock returns of the twenty largest US bank holding companies. The main contribution of the paper is the use of survey data to model the unexpected interest rate variable, which is an alternative approach to the existing literature. We find evidence of significant negative interest rate sensitivity during the early 1980s, and evidence of declining significance in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This result is also obtained when using the forecast errors of ARIMA processes to model the unexpected movement in the interest rate. [source] Convergence within the EU: Evidence from Interest RatesECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 2 2000Teresa Corzo Santamaria The economic and political changes which are taking place in Europe affect interest rates. This paper develops a two-factor model for the term structure of interest rates specially designed to apply to EMU countries. In addition to the participant country's short-term interest rate, we include as a second factor a ,European' short-term interest rate. We assume that the ,European' rate follows a mean reverting process. The domestic interest rate also follows a mean reverting process, but its convergence is to a stochastic mean which is identified with the ,European' rate. Closed-form solutions for prices of zero coupon discount bonds and options on these bonds are provided. A special feature of the model is that both the domestic and the European interest rate risks are priced. We also discuss an empirical estimation focusing on the Spanish bond market. The ,European' rate is proxied by the ecu's interest rate. Through a comparison of the performance of our convergence model with a Vasicek model for the Spanish bond market, we show that our model provides a better fit both in-sample and out-of sample and that the difference in performance between the models is greater the longer the maturity of the bonds. (J.E.L.: E43, C510). [source] The Continuing Muddles of Monetary Theory: A Steadfast Refusal to Face FactsECONOMICA, Issue 2009C. A. E. GOODHART Lionel Robbins was concerned about the methodology of economic science. When he discussed the relationship between theory and ,reality', two of the examples of inappropriate relationships were taken from monetary economics. Such shortcomings continue. Among the worst are: (1) IS/LM: whereby the monetary authorities set the monetary base, and the interest rate is market determined; (2) the monetary base multiplier of bank deposits, and the role of reserve ratios; (3) the current three-equation neoclassical consensus, assuming perfect creditworthiness, and hence no need for banks; (4) the analysis of the evolution of money. [source] Targeting Inflation with a Role for MoneyECONOMICA, Issue 288 2005Ulf Söderström This paper demonstrates how a target for money growth can be beneficial for an inflation-targeting central bank acting under discretion. Because the growth rate of money is closely related to the change in the interest rate and the growth of real output, delegating a money growth target to the central bank makes discretionary policy more inertial, leading to better social outcomes. This delegation scheme is also compared with other schemes suggested in the literature. The results indicate that stabilizing money growth around a target can be a sensible strategy for monetary policy, although other delegation schemes are often more efficient. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||