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Intuition
Kinds of Intuition Selected AbstractsINTELLECTUAL INTUITION IN EMERSON AND THE EARLY GERMAN ROMANTICSPHILOSOPHICAL FORUM, Issue 3 2009ERIN E. FLYNN First page of article [source] ON "BECOMING MORAL": PRINCIPLES AND PARTICULAR INTUITIONS IN ETHICS1PHILOSOPHICAL FORUM, Issue 4 2007MICHAEL D. GARRAL First page of article [source] Deflating the Correspondence IntuitionDIALECTICA, Issue 3 2005Igor Douven A common objection against deflationist theories of truth is that they cannot do justice to the correspondence intuition, i.e. the intuition that there is an explanatory relationship between, for instance, the truth of ,Snow is white' and snow's being white. We scrutinize two attempts to meet this objection and argue that both fail. We then propose a new response to the objection which, first, sheds doubt on the correctness of the correspondence intuition and, second, seeks to explain how we may nonetheless have come to have that intuition. [source] Untangling the Intuition Mess: Intuition as a Construct in Entrepreneurship ResearchENTREPRENEURSHIP THEORY AND PRACTICE, Issue 6 2005J. Robert Mitchell Entrepreneurs often use intuition to explain their actions. But because entrepreneurial intuition is poorly defined in the research literature: the "intuitive" is confused with the "innate," what is systematic is overlooked, and unexplained variance in entrepreneurial behavior remains high. Herein we: (1) bound and define the construct of entrepreneurial intuition within the distinctive domain of entrepreneurship research; (2) apply a levels-of-consciousness logic and process dynamism approach to; (3) organize definitions, antecedents, and consequences; and (4) produce propositions that lead to a working definition of entrepreneurial intuition. Our analysis renders intuition more usable in entrepreneurship research, and more valuable in practice. [source] Stubborn Reliance on Intuition and Subjectivity in Employee SelectionINDUSTRIAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 3 2008SCOTT HIGHHOUSE The focus of this article is on implicit beliefs that inhibit adoption of selection decision aids (e.g., paper-and-pencil tests, structured interviews, mechanical combination of predictors). Understanding these beliefs is just as important as understanding organizational constraints to the adoption of selection technologies and may be more useful for informing the design of successful interventions. One of these is the implicit belief that it is theoretically possible to achieve near-perfect precision in predicting performance on the job. That is, people have an inherent resistance to analytical approaches to selection because they fail to view selection as probabilistic and subject to error. Another is the implicit belief that prediction of human behavior is improved through experience. This myth of expertise results in an overreliance on intuition and a reluctance to undermine one's own credibility by using a selection decision aid. [source] The Hybrid Permit Cum Price Ceiling Policy Proposal: Intuition From The Prices Versus Quantities LiteratureOPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 4 2000Gary W. Yohe The social value of choosing a marketable permit cum price ceiling mechanism over an unencumbered marketable permit scheme to limit the emission of greenhouse gases is explored. Insight from the prices versus quantities literature instructs that this relative valuation weighs the benefit of increased variability in emissions as economic conditions warrant against an increase in the expected cost of climate change. The value of the hybrid scheme is high and carries a low price ceiling when, ceteris paribus, the marginal benefit of emissions reduction is not very sensitive to changes in the regulatory environment, when the marginal cost of reducing emissions is sensitive to that environment, when the variance in marginal cost is high and/or when the distortion created by the initial allocation of permits is large. The value is correspondingly low and the ceiling high when the opposite conditions hold. [source] A CLOSER LOOK AT CLOSURE SCEPTICISMPROCEEDINGS OF THE ARISTOTELIAN SOCIETY (HARDBACK), Issue 1 2006Michael Blome-Tillmann ABSTRACT The paper argues that there is no valid closure principle that can be used to infer sceptical conclusions. My argument exploits the Gettier Intuition that knowledge is incompatible with accidentally true belief. This intuition is interpreted as placing a constraint on beliefs that can count as knowledge: only beliefs which are based on reasons that are relevantly linked to the beliefs' truth can qualify as knowledge. I argue that closure principles are to reflect this constraint by accommodating the requirement that a subject's belief p needs to be based on her competent derivation of p from a known q. The emerging account is finally argued to reconcile Dretske's anti-closure intuitions with the intuition that we can extend knowledge by deduction, while simultaneously blocking closure arguments for scepticism about the external world. [source] Intuition gets some respect: Intuition in judgment and decision making.APPLIED COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 2 2009& Betsch, 2008., Betsch, New York, Plessner, T. Lawrence Erlbaum associates No abstract is available for this article. [source] The Explainability of IntuitionsDIALECTICA, Issue 1 2004Nenad Mi Explaining intuitions in terms of "facts of our natural history" is compatible with rationally trusting them. This compatibilist view is defended in the present paper, focusing upon nomic and essentialist modal intuitions. The opposite, incompatibilist view alleges the following: If basic modal intuitions are due to our cognitive make-up or "imaginative habits" then the epistemologists are left with a mere non-rational feeling of compulsion on the side of the thinker. Intuitions then cannot inform us about modal reality. In contrast, the paper argues that there are several independent sources of justification which make the feeling of compulsion rational: the prima-facie and a priori ones come from the obviousness of our basic modal intuitions and our not being able to imagine things otherwise, others, a posteriori, from the epistemic success of these intuitions. Further, the general scheme of evolutionary learning is reliable, reliability is preserved in the resulting individual's cognitive make-up, and we can come to know this a posteriori. The a posteriori appeal to evolution thus plays a subsidiary role in justification, filling the remaining gap and removing the residual doubt. Explaining modal intuitions is compatible with moderate realism about modality itself. [source] Multiple Realizability Intuitions and the Functionalist Conception of the MindMETAPHILOSOPHY, Issue 1 2006WILLIAM RAMSEY Abstract: A popular argument supporting functionalism has been what is commonly called the "multiple realizability" argument. One version of this argument uses thought experiments designed to show that minds could be composed of different types of material. This article offers a metaphilosophical analysis of this argument and shows that it fails to provide a strong case for functionalism. The multiple realizability argument is best understood as an inference-to-the-best-explanation argument, whereby a functionalist account of our mental concepts serves to explain our multiple realizability intuitions. I show that the argument is inadequate because alternative accounts of our mental concepts exist that provide equally plausible explanations for these intuitions. Moreover, in the case of our qualia concepts, a nonfunctionalist account explains several other intuitions that functionalism cannot explain. Thus, despite its popularity, the intuition-based version of the multiple realizability argument is a poor reason for accepting functionalism. [source] Philosophical Thought Experiments, Intuitions, and Cognitive EquilibriumMIDWEST STUDIES IN PHILOSOPHY, Issue 1 2007TAMAR SZABÓ GENDLER First page of article [source] Intuitions and Individual Differences: The Knobe Effect RevisitedMIND & LANGUAGE, Issue 4 2007SHAUN NICHOLS This paper argues that part of the explanation for this effect is that there are stable individual differences in how ,intentional' is interpreted. That is, in Knobe's cases, different people interpret the term in different ways. This interpretive diversity of ,intentional' opens up a new avenue to help explain Knobe's results. Furthermore, the paper argues that the use of intuitions in philosophy is complicated by fact that there are robust individual differences in intuitions about matters of philosophical concern. [source] Intuitions and introspections about imagery: the role of imagery experience in shaping an investigator's theoretical viewsAPPLIED COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 2 2003Daniel Reisberg Early in a scientific debate, before much evidence has accumulated, why are some scientists inclined toward one position and other scientists toward the opposite position? We explore this issue with a focus on scientists' views of the ,imagery debate' that unfolded in Cognitive Science during the late 1970s and early 1980s. We examine the possibility that, during the early years of this debate, researchers' views were shaped by their own conscious experiences with imagery. Consistent with this suggestion, a survey of 150 psychologists, philosophers, and neuroscientists showed that those who experienced their own visual imagery as vivid and picture-like recall being more sympathetic in 1980 to the view that, in general, images are picture-like. Similarly, those who have vivid images and who regularly use their images in cognition were more inclined to believe that issues of image vividness deserve more research. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A System for View-Dependent AnimationCOMPUTER GRAPHICS FORUM, Issue 3 2004Parag Chaudhuri In this paper, we present a novel system for facilitating the creation of stylized view-dependent 3D animation. Our system harnesses the skill and intuition of a traditionally trained animator by providing a convivial sketch based 2D to 3D interface. A base mesh model of the character can be modified to match closely to an input sketch, with minimal user interaction. To do this, we recover the best camera from the intended view direction in the sketch using robust computer vision techniques. This aligns the mesh model with the sketch. We then deform the 3D character in two stages - first we reconstruct the best matching skeletal pose from the sketch and then we deform the mesh geometry. We introduce techniques to incorporate deformations in the view-dependent setting. This allows us to set up view-dependent models for animation. Categories and Subject Descriptors (according to ACM CCS): I.3.7 [Computer Graphics]: Three-Dimensional Graphics and Realism - Animation 7 Figure 7. Our system takes as input a sketch (a), and a base mesh model (b), then recovers a camera to orient the base mesh (c), then reconstructs the skeleton pose (d), and finally deforms the mesh to find the best possible match with the sketch (e). [source] The use of intuition in mediationCONFLICT RESOLUTION QUARTERLY, Issue 2 2007Greg Rooney How mediators make decisions about what to do in the mediation session is one of the least understood, but most important, issues in the study of mediation. This article explores a number of different approaches, including the use of intuition. It examines the effectiveness of developing premediation strategies and hypotheses and their impact on the mediator's ability to engage with the parties in the here-and-now of the mediation session. [source] Jürgen Habermas's Theory of CosmopolitanismCONSTELLATIONS: AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CRITICAL AND DEMOCRATIC THEORY, Issue 4 2003Robert Fine In this paper we explore the sustained and multifaceted attempt of Jürgen Habermas to reconstruct Kant's theory of cosmopolitan right for our own times. In a series of articles written in the post-1989 period, Habermas has argued that the challenge posed both by the catastrophes of the twentieth century, and by social forces of globalization, has given new impetus to the idea of cosmopolitan justice that Kant first expressed. He recognizes that today we cannot simply repeat Kant's eighteenth-century vision: that if we are to grapple with the complexities of present-day problems, it is necessary to iron out certain inconsistencies in Kant's thinking, radicalize it where its break from the old order of nation-states is incomplete, socialize it so as to draw out the connections between perpetual peace and social justice, and modernize it so as to comprehend the "differences both in global situation and conceptual framework that now separate us from him."1 His basic intuition, however, is that Kant's idea of cosmopolitan right is as relevant to our times as it was to Kant's own. If it was Kant's achievement to formulate the idea of cosmopolitanism in a modern philosophical form, Habermas takes up the challenge posed by Karl-Otto Apel: to "think with Kant against Kant" in reconstructing this idea. What follows is a critical assessment of Habermas's response to this challenge. We focus here on the dilemmas he faces in grounding his normative commitment to cosmopolitan politics and in reconciling his cosmopolitanism with the national framework in which he developed his ideas of constitutional patriotism and deliberative democracy. [source] Clustering: An Essential Step from Diverging to ConvergingCREATIVITY AND INNOVATION MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2007Marc Tassoul Within the context of new product development processes and the Creative Problem Solving (CPS) process, the authors have come to the view that clustering is to be seen as a separate step in the process of diverging and converging. Clustering is generally presented as part of the converging stages, and as such categorized as a selection technique, which in the authors' view does not do justice to this activity. It is about expanding knowledge, about connecting ideas, and connecting ideas to problem statements, functionalities, and values and consequences. It is about building a shared understanding, in other words about ,making sense', an essential creative activity in the development of concepts and, although different from a more freewheeling divergent phase, can be as creative and maybe even more so. Four kinds of clusterings are distinguished: object clustering, morphological clustering, functional clustering and gestalt clustering. Object clustering is mainly aimed at categorizing ideas into an overviewable set of groups of ideas. No special connections are being made, other then looking for similarities. Morphological clustering is used to split up a problem into subproblems after which the ideas generated are considered as subsolutions which can then be combined into concepts. Functional clustering is interesting when different approaches can be chosen to answer some question. It permits a more strategic choice to be made. Gestalt clustering is a more synthesis like approach, often with a more metaphoric and artistic stance. Collage is a good example of such clustering. General guidelines for clustering are: use a bottom-up process of emergence; postpone early rationalisations and verbalisations; start grouping ideas on the basis of feeling and intuition; and use metaphoric names to identify clusters. [source] Deflating the Correspondence IntuitionDIALECTICA, Issue 3 2005Igor Douven A common objection against deflationist theories of truth is that they cannot do justice to the correspondence intuition, i.e. the intuition that there is an explanatory relationship between, for instance, the truth of ,Snow is white' and snow's being white. We scrutinize two attempts to meet this objection and argue that both fail. We then propose a new response to the objection which, first, sheds doubt on the correctness of the correspondence intuition and, second, seeks to explain how we may nonetheless have come to have that intuition. [source] A one-dimensional model for simulating armouring and erosion on hillslopes: 2.EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 10 2007Long term erosion, armouring predictions for two contrasting mine spoils Abstract This paper investigates the dynamics of soil armouring as a result of fluvial erosion for a non-cohesive sandy gravel spoil from the Ranger Mine, Australia, and a cohesive silt loam spoil from the Northparkes Mine, Australia, using a model for hillslope soil armouring. These long term predictions concentrate on the temporal and spatial changes of the spoil grading and erosion over 100,200 years for the flat cap regions (1,2%) and steep batter edges (10,30%) typically encountered on waste rock dumps. The existence of a significant rock fragment fraction in the Ranger spoil means that it armours readily, while Northparkes does not. For Ranger the waste rock showed reductions in (1) cumulative erosion of up to 81% from that obtained by extrapolating the initial erosion rate out 100 years and (2) the erosion/year by more than 10-fold. For Northparkes reductions were less marked, with the maximum reduction in erosion/year being 37% after 200 years. For Ranger the reductions were greatest and fastest for intermediate gradient hillslopes. For the steepest hillslopes the armouring decreased because the flow shear stresses were large enough to mobilize all material in the armour layer. Model uncertainty was assessed with probabilistic confidence limits demonstrating that these erodibility reductions were statistically significant. A commonly used hillslope erosion model (sediment flux = ,1 discharge m1 slope n1) was fitted to these predictions. The erodibility, ,1, and m1 decreased with time, which was consistent with our physical intuition about armouring. At Ranger the parameter m1 asymptoted to 1·5,1·6 while at Northparkes it asymptoted to 1·2,1·3. At Ranger transient spatial trends in armouring led to a short term (50,200 years in the future) reduction in n1, to below zero under certain circumstances, recovering to an asymptote of about 0·5,1. At Northparkes n1 asymptoted to about 0·6, with no negative transients predicted. The m1 and n1 parameters predicted for Ranger were shown to be consistent with field data from a 10-year-old armoured hillslope and consistent with published relationships between erodibility and rock content for natural hillslopes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Direct estimation of the seismic demand and capacity of oscillators with multi-linear static pushovers through IDA,EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS, Issue 9 2006Dimitrios Vamvatsikos Abstract SPO2IDA is introduced, a software tool that is capable of recreating the seismic behaviour of oscillators with complex quadrilinear backbones. It provides a direct connection between the static pushover (SPO) curve and the results of incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), a computer-intensive procedure that offers thorough demand and capacity prediction capability by using a series of nonlinear dynamic analyses under a suitably scaled suite of ground motion records. To achieve this, the seismic behaviour of numerous single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems is investigated through IDA. The oscillators have a wide range of periods and feature pinching hysteresis with backbones ranging from simple bilinear to complex quadrilinear with an elastic, a hardening and a negative-stiffness segment plus a final residual plateau that terminates with a drop to zero strength. An efficient method is introduced to treat the backbone shape by summarizing the analysis results into the 16, 50 and 84% fractile IDA curves, reducing them to a few shape parameters and finding simpler backbones that reproduce the IDA curves of complex ones. Thus, vast economies are realized while important intuition is gained on the role of the backbone shape to the seismic performance. The final product is SPO2IDA, an accurate, spreadsheet-level tool for performance-based earthquake engineering that can rapidly estimate demands and limit-state capacities, strength reduction R -factors and inelastic displacement ratios for any SDOF system with such a quadrilinear SPO curve. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common senseECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 48 2006Giancarlo Corsetti SUMMARY Budget deficits and current accounts OPENNESS AND FISCAL PERSISTENCE Simple accounting suggests that shocks to the government budget move the current account in the same direction, and this ,twin deficits' intuition leads many observers to call for fiscal consolidation in the US as a necessary measure to reduce the large external imbalance of this country. The response of other macroeconomic variables to budget developments, however, has important implications for ,twin deficits' and for this policy prescription. Focusing on the international transmission of fiscal policy shocks via terms of trade changes, we show that the likelihood and magnitude of twin deficits increases with the degree of openness of an economy, and decreases with the persistence of fiscal shocks. We take this insight to the data and investigate the transmission of fiscal shocks in a vector autoregression (VAR) model estimated for Australia, Canada, the UK and the US. We find that in less open countries the external impact of shocks to either government spending or budget deficits is limited, while private investment responds in line with our theoretical prediction. These results suggest that a fiscal retrenchment in the US may have a limited impact on its current external deficit. , Giancarlo Corsetti and Gernot J. Müller [source] Should we beware of the Precautionary Principle?ECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 33 2001Christian Gollier How should society deal with risks when there is scientific uncertainty about the size of these risks? There has been much recent discussion of the Precautionary Principle, which states that lack of full scientific knowledge should not be used as a reason to postpone cost,effective preventive measures. We show in this paper that the Precautionary Principle contradicts one important intuition about the right way to act in the face of risk, namely the principle of ,looking before you leap'. When we expect to learn more about the future, the effectiveness of our preventive measures will be greater if we learn before we act. However, a number of other ways of taking uncertainty into account are consistent with a reasonable interpretation of the Precautionary Principle. First, postponing preventive measures may increase our vulnerability to damage, which induces a precautionary motive for risk,prevention, similar to the precautionary savings motive. Secondly, stronger preventive actions often yield more flexibility for the future, so that acting early has an option value. Thirdly, when better information comes from a process of learning,by,doing, the risk associated with early events is amplified by the information they yield about the future. This plays a role analogous to that of an increase in risk aversion, making us more cautious. Fourthly, because imperfect knowledge of the risk makes it difficult to insure, the social cost of risk should include a risk premium. Finally, uncertainty about the economic environment enjoyed by future generations should be taken into account. This raises the benefit of acting early to prevent long,term risks. If the Precautionary Principle sometimes gives good and sometimes gives bad advice, there is no escape from the need to undertake a careful cost,benefit analysis. We show that standard cost,benefit analysis can be refined to take account of scientific uncertainty, in ways that balance the Precautionary Principle against the benefits of waiting to learn before we act. Furthermore, it is important that they be used to do so, for instinct is an unreliable guide in such circumstances. Abandoning cost,benefit analysis in favour of simple maxims can result in some seriously misleading conclusions. [source] Foreign Investment, Vertical Integration and Local Equity RequirementsECONOMICA, Issue 284 2004Avik Chakrabarti The paper presents a spatial model in which a foreign firm and local government behave strategically in setting a local equity requirement (LER). Contrary to simple intuition, larger equity requirements may increase economic efficiency, but this conclusion is highly sensitive to the vertical structure of the foreign firm. When the foreign firm has monopoly power in both foreign (upstream) and domestic (downstream) markets, the optimal equity requirement is zero. Surprisingly, the introduction of domestic competition upstream causes the government to adopt a LER which lowers economic efficiency. [source] Untangling the Intuition Mess: Intuition as a Construct in Entrepreneurship ResearchENTREPRENEURSHIP THEORY AND PRACTICE, Issue 6 2005J. Robert Mitchell Entrepreneurs often use intuition to explain their actions. But because entrepreneurial intuition is poorly defined in the research literature: the "intuitive" is confused with the "innate," what is systematic is overlooked, and unexplained variance in entrepreneurial behavior remains high. Herein we: (1) bound and define the construct of entrepreneurial intuition within the distinctive domain of entrepreneurship research; (2) apply a levels-of-consciousness logic and process dynamism approach to; (3) organize definitions, antecedents, and consequences; and (4) produce propositions that lead to a working definition of entrepreneurial intuition. Our analysis renders intuition more usable in entrepreneurship research, and more valuable in practice. [source] An explanation of the forward premium ,puzzle'EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2000Richard Roll Existing literature reports a puzzle about the forward rate premium over the spot foreign exchange rate. The premium is often negatively correlated with subsequent changes in the spot rate. This defies economic intuition and possibly violates market efficiency. Rational explanations include non-stationary risk premia and econometric mis-specifications, but some embrace the puzzle as a guide to profitable trading. We suggest there is really no puzzle. A simple model fits the data: forward exchange rates are unbiased predictors of subsequent spot rates. The puzzle arises because the forward rate, the spot rate, and the forward premium follow nearly non-stationary time series processes. We document these properties with an extended sample and show why they give the delusion of a puzzle. [source] Individual differences in creativity: personality, story writing, and hobbiesEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PERSONALITY, Issue 4 2001Uwe Wolfradt This study investigated the relationship between creativity and personality among college students from a variety of major fields of study. Indicators of creativity were ratings of written stories, lists of personal hobbies, and scores on the Creative Personality Scale (CPS; Gough, 1979). Personality was assessed broadly using the NEO-Five Factor Inventory (Costa and McCrae, 1985) as well as measures of depersonalization, intolerance of ambiguity, faith in intuition, and problem-solving styles. The results showed a positive relationship between openness to experience and all creativity measures. Moreover, high scores on intuition and extraversion were the best predictors for creativity as measured by the CPS. Story creativity was predicted by low scores on conscientiousness. Depersonalization was not significantly related to creativity. The results of this investigation confirm and extend previous research in demonstrating a close association between creativity and specific personality traits. Future research should clarify the nature of the creative personality across individuals of differing levels and domains of expertise. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] INTERPRETATION OF THE RESULTS OF COMMON PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSESEVOLUTION, Issue 3 2002David Houle Abstract Common principal components (CPC) analysis is a new tool for the comparison of phenotypic and genetic variance-covariance matrices. CPC was developed as a method of data summarization, but frequently biologists would like to use the method to detect analogous patterns of trait correlation in multiple populations or species. To investigate the properties of CPC, we simulated data that reflect a set of causal factors. The CPC method performs as expected from a statistical point of view, but often gives results that are contrary to biological intuition. In general, CPC tends to underestimate the degree of structure that matrices share. Differences of trait variances and covariances due to a difference in a single causal factor in two otherwise identically structured datasets often cause CPC to declare the two datasets unrelated. Conversely, CPC could identify datasets as having the same structure when causal factors are different. Reordering of vectors before analysis can aid in the detection of patterns. We urge caution in the biological interpretation of CPC analysis results. [source] PERSPECTIVE: GENE DIVERGENCE, POPULATION DIVERGENCE, AND THE VARIANCE IN COALESCENCE TIME IN PHYLOGEOGRAPHIC STUDIESEVOLUTION, Issue 6 2000ScottV. Abstract Molecular methods as applied to the biogeography of single species (phylogeography) or multiple codistributed species (comparative phylogeography) have been productively and extensively used to elucidate common historical features in the diversification of the Earth's biota. However, only recently have methods for estimating population divergence times or their confidence limits while taking into account the critical effects of genetic polymorphism in ancestral species become available, and earlier methods for doing so are underutilized. We review models that address the crucial distinction between the gene divergence, the parameter that is typically recovered in molecular phylogeographic studies, and the population divergence, which is in most cases the parameter of interest and will almost always postdate the gene divergence. Assuming that population sizes of ancestral species are distributed similarly to those of extant species, we show that phylogeographic studies in vertebrates suggest that divergence of alleles in ancestral species can comprise from less than 10% to over 50% of the total divergence between sister species, suggesting that the problem of ancestral polymorphism in dating population divergence can be substantial. The variance in the number of substitutions (among loci for a given species or among species for a given gene) resulting from the stochastic nature of DNA change is generally smaller than the variance due to substitutions along allelic lines whose coalescence times vary due to genetic drift in the ancestral population. Whereas the former variance can be reduced by further DNA sequencing at a single locus, the latter cannot. Contrary to phylogeographic intuition, dating population divergence times when allelic lines have achieved reciprocal monophyly is in some ways more challenging than when allelic lines have not achieved monophyly, because in the former case critical data on ancestral population size provided by residual ancestral polymorphism is lost. In the former case differences in coalescence time between species pairs can in principle be explained entirely by differences in ancestral population size without resorting to explanations involving differences in divergence time. Furthermore, the confidence limits on population divergence times are severely underestimated when those for number of substitutions per site in the DNA sequences examined are used as a proxy. This uncertainty highlights the importance of multilocus data in estimating population divergence times; multilocus data can in principle distinguish differences in coalescence time (T) resulting from differences in population divergence time and differences in T due to differences in ancestral population sizes and will reduce the confidence limits on the estimates. We analyze the contribution of ancestral population size (,) to T and the effect of uncertainty in , on estimates of population divergence (,) for single loci under reciprocal monophyly using a simple Bayesian extension of Takahata and Satta's and Yang's recent coalescent methods. The confidence limits on , decrease when the range over which ancestral population size , is assumed to be distributed decreases and when increases; they generally exclude zero when /(4Ne) > 1. We also apply a maximum-likelihood method to several single and multilocus data sets. With multilocus data, the criterion for excluding = 0 is roughly that l/(4Ne)> 1, where l is the number of loci. Our analyses corroborate recent suggestions that increasing the number of loci is critical to decreasing the uncertainty in estimates of population divergence time. [source] Earnings characteristics and analysts' differential interpretation of earnings announcements: An empirical analysisACCOUNTING & FINANCE, Issue 2 2009Anwer S. Ahmed G14; M41 Abstract This study provides empirical evidence on factors that drive differential interpretation of earnings announcements. We document that Kandel and Pearson's forecast measures of differential interpretation are decreasing in proxies for earnings quality and pre-announcement information quality. This evidence yields new and useful insights regarding which earnings announcements are less likely to generate newfound disagreement among analysts and investors. Recent research suggests that investor disagreement can increase investment risk, increase the cost of capital, and cause stock prices to deviate from fundamental value. Therefore, our results support prior intuition that increasing the quality of earnings and pre-announcement information can improve the efficiency of capital markets. [source] Coming Down to Earth on Cloning: An Ecofeminist Analysis of Homophobia in the Current DebateHYPATIA, Issue 4 2006Victoria DavionArticle first published online: 9 JAN 200 In this essay, Davion argues that many arguments appealing to an "intuition" that reproductive cloning is morally wrong because it is "unnatural" rely upon an underlying moral assumption that only heterosexuality is "natural," an assumption that grounds extreme homophobia in America. Therefore, critics of cloning who are in favor of gay and lesbian equality have reasons to avoid prescriptive appeals to the so-called "natural" in making their arguments. Davion then suggests anticloning arguments that do not make such appeals. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||