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Indian Summer Monsoon (indian + summer_monsoon)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Earth and Environmental Science	92%

Selected Abstracts

Large-scale summer monsoon rainfall over India and its relation to 850 hPa wind shear

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 15 2007
V. S. Prasad
Abstract The daily variations of the horizontal wind shear at the 850 hPa level between a southern region (5,15°N, 40,80°E; Zone 1) and a northern region (20,30°N, 70,90°E; Zone 2) during the period 1979,2002 were investigated. Investigations revealed that the changes of this wind shear on a daily basis are directly related to the large-scale rainfall over the Indian region during the monsoon season. The wind shear of zonal wind together with Zone 2 is useful for determining active, weak and break periods of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Thus, the Horizontal Wind Shear can be used as a dynamical circulation Index (HWSI) for studying ISM variability. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Simulation of Indian summer monsoon: sensitivity to cumulus parameterization in a GCM

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2007
S. K. Deb
Abstract Hindcasts for the Indian summer monsoons (ISMs) of 2002 and 2003 have been produced from a series of numerical simulations performed with a general circulation model using different cumulus parameterization schemes. Ten sets of ensemble simulations have been produced without using any vegetation scheme but by prescribing the monthly observed SST from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) analyses. For each ensemble, ten simulations have been realised with different initial conditions that are also prepared from the ECMWF data: five each from the April and May analyses of both the years. Stream function, velocity potential with divergent winds at 200 hPa, winds at 850 hPa and rainfall patterns with their anomalies have been analysed and interpreted. The large-scale upper and lower level circulation features are simulated satisfactorily. The spatial structure of predicted July monsoon rainfall over India shows a fair agreement with the GPCP (observed) pentad rainfall distribution. The variability associated with all-India June,July simulated rainfall time series matches reasonably well with the observations in 2003, but the model fails to simulate the observed variability in July 2002. Further evaluation of the model-produced precipitation in seasonal simulations is done with the help of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the GPCP rainfall over India. Since the first four EOFs explain a significant part of the total variance of the observed rainfall, the simulated precipitation is projected on to these modes. Thus, the differences in simulated and observed rainfall fields manifest in the time series of their expansion coefficients, which are utilised for inter-comparison/evaluation of model simulations. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Simulated changes in active/break spells during the Indian summer monsoon due to enhanced CO2 concentrations: assessment from selected coupled atmosphere,ocean global climate models

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2007
Sujata K. Mandke
Abstract The simulations by ten coupled GCMs under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report-4 are used to study the implication of possible global climate change on active/break spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The validation of the mean daily cycle of the summer monsoon precipitation over the Indian core region and the spatial pattern of the ISM precipitation climatology with observation suggest that six models simulate fairly well, whereas four models differ from observation. Thus, the identification of active/break spells is confined to six models. The sensitivity to climate change has been assessed from two experiments, namely, 1% per year CO2 increase to doubling and 1% per year CO2 increase to quadrupling. The changes in the daily mean cycle and the standard deviation of precipitation, frequency, and duration of active/break spells in future climate change are uncertain among the models and at times among two experiments. The break composite precipitation anomalies strengthen and spread moderately (significantly) in the doubled (quadrupled) CO2 experiment. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Onset characteristics of the southwest monsoon over India

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2005
P. V. S. Raju
Abstract Dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of the Asian summer monsoon during the onset phase over the Indian Peninsula (Kerala coast) and its variability are examined with reanalysis data sets. For this study, daily averaged (0000 and 1200 UTC) reanalysis data sets of National Centre for Environmental Prediction,National Centre for Atmospheric Research for the period 1948,99 are used. Based on 52 years of onset dates of the Indian summer monsoon, we categorized pre-onset, onset and post-onset periods (each averaged 5 days) to investigate the mean circulation characteristics and the large-scale energetics of the Asian summer monsoon. It is found that the strength of the low-level Somali jet and upper tropospheric tropical easterly jet increase rapidly during the time of evolution of the summer monsoon over India. Over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, predominant changes are noticed in the large-scale balances of kinetic energy, heat and moisture from the pre-onset to the post-onset periods. Prior to the onset of the summer monsoon over India, a zone of flux convergence of heat and moisture is noticed over the eastern sector of the Bay of Bengal and this intensifies in the onset and post-onset periods. During onset of the monsoon over India, the horizontal flux convergence of heat and moisture, as well as diabatic heating, are enhanced over the Arabian Sea. These subsequently increase with the evolution and advancement of the monsoon over India. Further, the dynamics of the evolution processes (15 days before and 30 days after the onset date of the monsoon over Kerala for each annual cycle) are studied over various sectors, such as the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian Peninsula region. The study reveals that the low-level kinetic energy, vertically integrated generation of kinetic energy and net tropospheric moisture over Arabian Sea can be used as potential predictors for the prediction of the possible onset date of the summer monsoon over the Indian Peninsula. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Evaluation of broad scale vertical circulation and thermal indices in relation to the onset of Indian summer monsoon

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2002
S. K. Roy Bhowmik
Abstract The onset of the Indian summer monsoon over Kerala for an individual year of delayed (1997), early (1999) and normal onset (2000) was examined in relation to the intensity of vertical circulation and thermal indices during the pre-monsoon months (April and May). The study showed that in the delayed monsoon onset year (1997) negative anomalies of vertical zonal index dominated over the north Indian Ocean during pre-monsoon months, particularly in April. In contrast, in the early onset year (1999) the positive anomalies of this index over the north Indian Ocean during the pre-monsoon months were considerably stronger (April and May). However, the meridional vertical index did not show any appreciable difference. The gradient of the vertical thermal index anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau in the month of April was prominently stronger during the years of early and normal onset (1999 and 2000). The anomalies of geopotential height at 200 hPa over the Tibetan Plateau in the pre-monsoon months were significantly lower in the year of delayed onset (1997). The precipitable water content was found to be another major feature, which grew rapidly over the equatorial belt of the Indian Ocean extending up to the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal during the two weeks prior to onset. Most of these features were observed very distinctly in the month of April, well before the monsoon onset, and promise to provide important predictive signals for the onset over Kerala. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. [source]

Two major modes of variability of the East Asian summer monsoon

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 649 2010
Xuguang Sun
Abstract We study the two primary modes of variability associated with the East Asian summer monsoon, as identified using a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The second mode is shown to be related to changes in intensity of the South Asian High at 100 hPa while, consistent with previous work, the first mode is associated with an index for the shear vorticity of the 850 hPa zonal wind over the monsoon region. We show that a linear, dry dynamical model, when driven by the diabatic heating anomalies associated with each mode, can reproduce many of the anomalous circulation features, especially for the first EOF and in the lower troposphere. The model results indicate the importance of diabatic heating anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean in the dynamics of both modes, especially EOF-1, and illustrate the role of local diabatic feedback for intensifying the circulation anomalies; in particular, the subtropical anticyclonic anomalies that are found in the positive phase of both modes, and the circulation anomaly associated with the Meiyu/Changma/Baiu rain band. A running cross-correlation analysis shows that the second EOF is consistently linked to both the decaying and the onset phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events throughout the study period (1958,2001). We attribute the connection in the onset phase to zonal wind anomalies along the Equator in the west Pacific associated with this mode. On the other hand, a link between the first EOF and ENSO is found only in the post-1979 period. We note also the role of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean in the dynamics of EOF-1, and a link to the variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the case of EOF-2. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Extension of potential predictability of Indian summer monsoon dry and wet spells in recent decades

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 648 2010
J. M. Neena
Abstract An understanding of the limit on potential predictability is crucial for developing appropriate tools for extended-range prediction of active/break spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The global low-frequency changes in climate modulate the annual cycle of the ISM and can influence the intrinsic predictability limit of the ISM intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). Using 104-year (1901,2004) long daily rainfall data, the change in potential predictability of active and break spells are estimated by an empirical method. It is found that the potential predictability of both active and break spells have undergone a rapid increase during the recent three decades. The potential predictability of active spells has shown an increase from one week to two weeks while that for break spells increased from two weeks to three weeks. This result is interesting and intriguing in the backdrop of recent finding that the potential predictability of monsoon weather has decreased substantially over the same period compared to earlier decades due to increased potential instability of the atmosphere. The possible role of internal dynamics and external forcing in producing this change has been explored. The changes in energy exchange between the synoptic and ISO scale and the different ISO modes as evidenced by energetics computations in frequency domain also support the increased potential predictability of ISO. Our finding provides optimism for improved and useful extended-range prediction of monsoon active and break spells. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 640 2009
A. G. Turner
Abstract Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

An objective definition of the Indian summer monsoon season and a new perspective on the ENSO,monsoon relationship

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 624 2007
Prince K. Xavier
The concept of an interannually varying Indian summer monsoon season is introduced here, considering that the duration of the primary driving of the Indian monsoon,the large-scale meridional gradient of the deep tropospheric heat source,may vary from one year to another. Onset (withdrawal) is defined as the day when the tropospheric heat source shifts from south to north (north to south). This physical principle leads to a new thermodynamic index of the seasonal mean monsoon. While the traditional measure of seasonal rainfall, averaged from 1 June to 30 September, indicates a breakdown of the ENSO,monsoon relationship in recent decades, it is argued that this breakdown is partly due to the inappropriate definition of a fixed monsoon season. With a new physically based definition of the seasonal mean, the ENSO,monsoon relationship has remained steady over the decades. El Niño (La Niña) events contract (expand) the season, and thus decrease (increase) the seasonal mean monsoon by setting up persistent negative (positive) tropospheric temperature (TT) anomalies over the southern Eurasian region. Thus, we propose a new pathway, whereby the Indian summer monsoon could be influenced by remote climatic phenomena via modification of TT over Eurasia. Diagnostics of the onset and withdrawal processes suggest that onset delay is due to the enhanced adiabatic subsidence that inhibits vertical mixing of sensible heating from warm landmass during the pre-monsoon months. On the other hand, the major factor that determines whether the withdrawal is early or late is the horizontal advective cooling. Most of the late (early) onsets and early (late) withdrawals are associated with El Niño (La Niña). This link between the ENSO and the monsoon is realized through vertical and horizontal advections associated with the stationary waves in the upper troposphere set up by the tropical ENSO heating. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Response of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in El Niño properties

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 607 2005
H. Annamalai
Abstract Diagnostics from observed precipitation and National Centers for Environmental Prediction,National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis products reveal that after the 1976,77 climate shift in the Pacific there was a dramatic change in the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to El Niño, particularly during the months of July and August. Based on 1950,75 (PRE76) and 1977,2001 (POST76) El Niño composites: the western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) was stronger than normal in both periods; the ISM was weaker than normal during the entire monsoon season in PRE76, but in POST76 was weaker only during the onset and withdrawal phases. In terms of observed sea surface temperature (SST) during July,August, the major differences between the two periods are the presence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo,Pacific warm pool and the intensity of warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific in POST76. The effect of these differences on the ISM is investigated in a suite of experiments with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) that has a realistic monsoon precipitation climatology. Separate ten-member ensemble simulations with the AGCM were conducted for PRE76 and POST76 El Niño events with SST anomalies inserted as follows: (i) tropical Indo,Pacific (TIP), (ii) tropical Pacific only (TPO), and (iii) tropical Indian Ocean only (TIO). Qualitatively, TPO solutions reproduce the observed differences in the monsoon response in both periods. Specifically, during July,August of POST76 the cold SST anomalies in conjunction with remote subsidence suppress precipitation (3,5 mm day,1) over the maritime continent and equatorial central Indian Ocean. Inclusion of Indian Ocean SST anomalies in the TIP runs further suppresses precipitation over the entire equatorial Indian Ocean. The low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies that develop as a Rossby-wave response to these convective anomalies increase the south-westerlies over the northern Indian Ocean, and favour a stronger ISM and WNPM. During PRE76 the non-occurrence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo,Pacific warm pool reinforces El Niño's suppression on the ISM. In contrast, TIO solutions show a reduced ISM during July,August of POST76; the solutions, however, show a significant effect on the WNPM during both PRE76 and POST76 periods. It is argued that SSTs over the entire tropical Indo,Pacific region need to be considered to understand the El Niño Southern Oscillation,monsoon linkage, and to make predictions of rainfall over India and the western North Pacific. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source]