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Independent Data Set (independent + data_set)
Selected AbstractsPreventing the Spread of Invasive Species: Economic Benefits of Intervention Guided by Ecological PredictionsCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2008REUBEN P. KELLER bioeconomía; economía de las invasiones; invasiones biológicas; Orconectes rusticus; predicciones ecológicas Abstract:,Preventing the invasion of freshwater aquatic species is the surest way to reduce their impacts, but it is also often expensive. Hence, the most efficient prevention programs will rely on accurate predictions of sites most at risk of becoming invaded and concentrate resources at those sites. Using data from Vilas County, Wisconsin (U.S.A.), collected in the 1970s, we constructed a predictive occurrence model for rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus) and applied it to an independent data set of 48 Vilas County lakes to predict which of these were most likely to become invaded between 1975 and 2005. We nested this invasion model within an economic framework to determine whether targeted management, derived from our quantitative predictions of likely invasion sites, would increase the economic value of lakes in the independent data set. Although the optimum expenditure on lake protection was high, protecting lakes at this level would have produced net economic benefits of at least $6 million over the last 30 years. We did not attempt to determine the value of nonmarket benefits of protection; thus, our results are likely to underestimate the total benefits from preventing invasions. Our results demonstrate that although few data are available early in an invasion, these data may be sufficient to support targeted, effective, and economically rational management. In addition, our results show that ecological predictions are becoming sufficiently accurate that their application in management can produce net economic benefits. Resumen:,La prevención de la invasión de especies dulceacuícolas es la manera más segura de reducir sus impactos, pero a menudo es costosa. Por lo tanto, los programas de prevención más eficientes dependerán de predicciones precisas de los sitios con mayor riesgo de ser invadidos y concentrarán recursos en esos sitios. Utilizando datos recolectados en los 70s en el Condado Vilas, Wisconsin (E.U.A.), desarrollamos un modelo predictivo de la ocurrencia de Orconectes rusticus y lo aplicamos en un conjunto de datos independientes de 48 lagos en el Condado de Vilas para predecir cuales fueron más susceptibles de ser invadidos entre 1975 y 2005. Anidamos este modelo de invasión en un marco económico para determinar si los objetivos de manejo, derivados de nuestras predicciones cuantitativas de sitios susceptibles a la invasión, incrementarían el valor económico de los lagos del conjunto independiente de datos. Aunque el gasto óptimo para la protección de lagos fue alto, la protección de lagos a este nivel podría haber producido beneficios económicos por un mínimo de $6 millones en los últimos 30 años. No intentamos determinar el valor de los beneficios no comerciables de la protección; por lo tanto, es probable que nuestros resultados subestimen los beneficios totales de la prevención de invasiones. Nuestros resultados demuestran que, aunque se disponga de pocos datos del inicio de una invasión, esos datos pueden ser suficientes para fundamentar acciones de manejo efectivas y económicamente racionales. Adicionalmente, nuestros resultados muestran que las predicciones ecológicas se están volviendo tan precisas que su aplicación en el manejo puede producir beneficios económicos netos. [source] Relation between flow, surface-layer armoring and sediment transport in gravel-bed riversEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 8 2008John Pitlick Abstract This study investigates trends in bed surface and substrate grain sizes in relation to reach-scale hydraulics using data from more than 100 gravel-bed stream reaches in Colorado and Utah. Collocated measurements of surface and substrate sediment, bankfull channel geometry and channel slope are used to examine relations between reach-average shear stress and bed sediment grain size. Slopes at the study sites range from 0·0003 to 0·07; bankfull depths range from 0·2 to 5 m and bankfull widths range from 2 to 200 m. The data show that there is much less variation in the median grain size of the substrate, D50s, than there is in the median grain size of the surface, D50; the ratio of D50 to D50s thus decreases from about four in headwater reaches with high shear stress to less than two in downstream reaches with low shear stress. Similar trends are observed in an independent data set obtained from measurements in gravel-bed streams in Idaho. A conceptual quantitative model is developed on the basis of these observations to track differences in bed load transport through an idealized stream system. The results of the transport model suggest that downstream trends in total bed load flux may vary appreciably, depending on the assumed relation between surface and substrate grain sizes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Supplementary data confirming the relationship between critical Shields stress, grain size and bed slopeEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 11 2007Gareth Pender Abstract This article presents new experimental data on threshold conditions for motion of coarse uniform sediments. The experiments were conducted with 2·8 mm gravel in a 7·5 m long by 0·3 m wide flume and included measurements of hydraulic characteristics and rate of bed particle movement for a range of flows at different bed slopes. A reference transport method was used to define the beginning of sediment motion. Results from experiments with glass balls (diameters 6 and 9 mm) and coarse uniform gravels (17·5 and 38·6 mm) conducted by other researchers were used as an additional independent data set. The experimental data confirm the recent finding that the critical Shields stress for motion of coarse uniform sediment varies with both grain size and bed slope. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Estimating annual N2O emissions from agricultural soils in temperate climatesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 10 2005Caroline Roelandt Abstract The Kyoto protocol requires countries to provide national inventories for a list of greenhouse gases including N2O. A standard methodology proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates direct N2O emissions from soils as a constant fraction (1.25%) of the nitrogen input. This approach is insensitive to environmental variability. A more dynamic approach is needed to establish reliable N2O emission inventories and to propose efficient mitigation strategies. The objective of this paper is to develop a model that allows the spatial and temporal variation in environmental conditions to be taken into account in national inventories of direct N2O emissions. Observed annual N2O emission rates are used to establish statistical relationships between N2O emissions, seasonal climate and nitrogen-fertilization rate. Two empirical models, MCROPS and MGRASS, were developed for croplands and grasslands. Validated with an independent data set, MCROPS shows that spring temperature and summer precipitation explain 35% of the variance in annual N2O emissions from croplands. In MGRASS, nitrogen-fertilization rate and winter temperature explain 48% of the variance in annual N2O emissions from grasslands. Using long-term climate observations (1900,2000), the sensitivity of the models with climate variability is estimated by comparing the year-to-year prediction of the model to the precision obtained during the validation process. MCROPS is able to capture interannual variability of N2O emissions from croplands. However, grassland emissions show very small interannual variations, which are too small to be detectable by MGRASS. MCROPS and MGRASS improve the statistical reliability of direct N2O emissions compared with the IPCC default methodology. Furthermore, the models can be used to estimate the effects of interannual variation in climate, climate change on direct N2O emissions from soils at the regional scale. [source] Predicting the relationship between local and regional species richness from a patch occupancy dynamics modelJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2000B. Hugueny Summary 1.,A linear relationship between the number of species in ecological communities (local richness) and the species pools from which the communities are drawn (regional richness) suggests that species interactions are not sufficient to limit local richness and that communities are not saturated with species. Instead, this relationship implies that communities are open to regional influences and are interlinked by dispersal. 2.,Here we show how the linear relationship between local and regional richness in real, noninteractive, assemblages of cynipid gall wasps on California oaks, can be predicted from a simple patch-occupancy model. 3.,One cynipid assemblage has been surveyed for 3 years, allowing for crude estimates of colonization and extinction rates per patch. Using the mainland/island model of patch occupancy dynamics, these rates are combined with the observed number of cynipid species associated with each oak species (regional richness) to predict the expected local species richness in each patch. Assuming that species are independently distributed among localities, the expected variance in species richness among localities is also computed. 4.,The model is then tested on an independent data set. When differences in sampling effort (number of surveyed trees per locality) were accounted for, the regression equation relating observed (n = 41) to predicted local species richness does not differ statistically from the line of perfect agreement. The residuals are also distributed according to the predicted variance. 5.,Although not statistically significant, the variance in local richness appears to be slightly underestimated by the model. One explanation may be that cynipid species display some positive covariance in their distribution among localities, that is, groups of species occur together in given localities more frequently than would be expected by chance. Variance ratio tests identified statistically positive covariance within cynipid assemblages for three oaks species. 6.,The close fit of the model to the data supports the theoretical scenario for noninteractive communities, that the slope of the local,regional richness relationship and patch-occupancy processes are different expressions of the same phenomenon. [source] Generalized Additive Models and Lucilia sericata Growth: Assessing Confidence Intervals and Error Rates in Forensic Entomology,JOURNAL OF FORENSIC SCIENCES, Issue 4 2008Aaron M. Tarone Ph.D. Abstract:, Forensic entomologists use blow fly development to estimate a postmortem interval. Although accurate, fly age estimates can be imprecise for older developmental stages and no standard means of assigning confidence intervals exists. Presented here is a method for modeling growth of the forensically important blow fly Lucilia sericata, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Eighteen GAMs were created to predict the extent of juvenile fly development, encompassing developmental stage, length, weight, strain, and temperature data, collected from 2559 individuals. All measures were informative, explaining up to 92.6% of the deviance in the data, though strain and temperature exerted negligible influences. Predictions made with an independent data set allowed for a subsequent examination of error. Estimates using length and developmental stage were within 5% of true development percent during the feeding portion of the larval life cycle, while predictions for postfeeding third instars were less precise, but within expected error. [source] Effects of weather variables on grain mould of sorghum in South AfricaPLANT PATHOLOGY, Issue 2 2006G. Tarekegn Effects of weather variables of mould development on sorghum grain were studied over three consecutive seasons in South Africa. Five sorghum hybrids planted at different dates ensured developing seeds were exposed to different weather conditions. Incidence of grain mould fungi was determined at harvest by incubating seeds on 2% malt extract agar. Averages of different weather variables (maximum and minimum temperatures, maximum relative humidity, total precipitation and frequency of precipitation) were determined for all permutations of weekly time intervals for a 2-month postflowering period to identify when these variables and pathogen incidence were significantly correlated. Significant correlations were used to develop models to quantify relationships between variables. Significant positive correlations were observed between the incidence of mould fungi and weather 4,6 weeks after flowering in the shorter season hybrid cv. Buster, and 5,8 weeks after flowering in the remaining hybrids. In most hybrids, correlations between the incidence of grain mould pathogens, including Alternaria alternata, Curvularia spp. (C. lunata and C. clavata), Fusarium spp. (F. proliferatum and F. graminearum), and Drechslera sorghicola, and average minimum temperature, total rainfall and frequency of rainfall were significant (P = 0·05). In four hybrids, models showing a linear relationship between the logarithm of pathogen incidence and minimum temperature, and in one hybrid, between pathogen incidence and rainfall frequency, were developed. Depending on the hybrid, models that used minimum temperature as predictor described 60,82% of variation in the incidence of pathogens. Frequency of rainfall explained 93% of the variation in pathogen incidence in one sorghum hybrid genotype. Evaluation of the models using an independent data set yielded average prediction errors near zero, indicating that the models were acceptable. [source] Variation in pathogen aggressiveness within a metapopulation of the Cakile maritima,Alternaria brassicicola host,pathogen associationPLANT PATHOLOGY, Issue 3 2005P. H. Thrall Variation in aggressiveness and its consequences for disease epidemiology were studied in the Cakile maritima,Alternaria brassicicola host,pathogen association. Variability in pathogen growth rates and spore production in vitro, as well as disease severity and lesion growth rate on C. maritima in glasshouse inoculation trials, were investigated. Substantial variation was found in growth rates among individual A. brassicicola isolates, as well as among pathogen populations. A significant trade-off also existed between growth and spore production, such that faster-growing isolates produced fewer spores per unit area. While there was little evidence for a link between growth in vitro and either disease severity or lesion development among fast- vs slow-growth isolate classes at the individual isolate level, the results suggest that variation in pathogen fitness components associated with aggressiveness may influence disease dynamics in nature. An analysis using an independent data set of disease prevalence in the associated host populations found a significant positive relationship between the average growth rate of pathogen populations in vitro and disease progress over the growing season in wild host populations. Trade-offs such as those demonstrated between growth rate and spore production may contribute to the maintenance of variation in quantitatively based host,pathogen interactions. [source] The tree of life and the rock of ages: Are we getting better at estimating phylogeny?BIOESSAYS, Issue 3 2002Matthew A. Wills In a recent paper,(1) palaeontologist Mike Benton claimed that our ability to reconstruct accurately the tree of Life may not have improved significantly over the last 100 years. This implies that the cladistic and molecular revolutions may have promulgated as much bad "black box" science as rigorous investigation. Benton's assessment was based on the extent to which cladograms (typically constructed with reference only to distributions of character states) convey the same narrative as the geochronological ages of fossil taxa (an independent data set). Fossil record quality varies greatly between major clades, and the palaeontological dating "yardstick" may be more appropriate for some groups than others. BioEssays 24:203,207, 2002. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.; DOI 10.1002/bies.10065. [source] An evaluation of a heroin overdose prevention and education campaignDRUG AND ALCOHOL REVIEW, Issue 1 2010DANIELLE HORYNIAK Abstract Introduction and Aims. Following detection of an upward trend in the frequency of fatal heroin overdoses in Victoria between 2001 and 2003, Victoria's Department of Human Services planned a campaign aimed at increasing injecting drug users' (IDU) awareness of overdose risks and prevention strategies. Stickers, wallet cards and posters featuring five key messages were distributed via needle and syringe programs (NSP) and other drug and alcohol services between November 2005 and April 2006. An evaluation of the campaign was commissioned to be conducted in late 2006. Design and Methods. The evaluation consisted of analysis of three independent data sets,,quantitative data collected from IDU during the campaign period (n = 855 at baseline; and a range of 146,656 at follow up); qualitative interviews with IDU who were NSP clients during the campaign period (n = 16) and qualitative interviews with NSP staff and other key stakeholders (n = 9). Results. While key experts felt that the campaign messages had engendered lasting impact for at least some IDU, these positive impressions were not borne out by the NSP client data, with less than one quarter of all campaign messages being mentioned by a significantly higher proportion of clients during the post-campaign period compared with baseline. Key experts perceived the greatest weakness of the campaign to be the delay between issue identification and the introduction of campaign materials. Discussion and Conclusions. While IDU are generally responsive to health promotion campaigns, future initiatives in this domain should be designed and implemented rapidly and in ways that are sufficiently flexible to cope with shifts in drug markets which could influence the reception of key messages.[Horyniak D, Higgs P, Lewis J, Winter R, Dietze P, Aitken C. An evaluation of a heroin overdose prevention and education campaign. Drug Alcohol Rev 2009] [source] Modelling the hydraulic preferences of benthic macroinvertebrates in small European streamsFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2007SYLVAIN DOLÉDEC Summary 1. Relating processes occurring at a local scale to the natural variability of ecosystems at a larger scale requires the design of predictive models both to orientate stream management and to predict the effects of larger scale disturbances such as climate changes. Our study contributes to this effort by providing detailed models of the hydraulic preferences of 151 invertebrate taxa, mostly identified at the species level. We used an extensive data set comprising 580 invertebrate samples collected using a Surber net from nine sites of second and third order streams during one, two or three surveys at each site. We used nested non-linear mixed models to relate taxon local densities to bed shear stresses estimated from FliesswasserStammTisch hemisphere numbers. 2. An average model by taxon, i.e. independent from surveys, globally explained 25% of the density variations of taxa within surveys. A quadratic relationship existed between the average preferences and the niche breadth of taxa, indicating that taxa preferring extreme hemisphere numbers had a reduced hydraulic niche breadth. A more complete model, where taxa preferences vary across surveys, globally explained 38% of the variation of taxa densities within surveys. Variations in preferences across surveys were weak for taxa preferring extreme hemisphere numbers. 3. There was a significant taxonomic effect on preferences computed from the complete model. By contrast, season, site, average hemisphere number within a survey and average density of taxa within a survey used as covariates did not consistently explain shifts in taxon hydraulic preferences across surveys. 4. The average hydraulic preferences of taxa obtained from the extensive data set were well correlated to those obtained from two additional independent data sets collected in other regions. The consistency of taxon preferences across regions supports the use of regional preference curves for estimating the impact of river management on invertebrate communities. By contrast, the hydraulic niche breadths of taxa computed from the different data sets were not related. [source] The role of Steller sea lions in a large population decline of harbor sealsMARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, Issue 4 2010Elizabeth A. Mathews Abstract We provide the first direct evidence that Steller sea lions will prey on harbor seals. Direct observations of predation on marine mammals at sea are rare, but when observed rates of predation are extrapolated, predation mortality may be found to be significant. From 1992 to 2002, harbor seals in Glacier Bay declined steeply, from 6,200 to 2,500 (,65%). After documenting that Steller sea lions were preying on seals in Glacier Bay, we investigated increased predation by sea lions as a potential explanation for the large decline. In five independent data sets spanning 21,25 yr and including 14,308 d of observations, 13 predation events were recorded. We conducted a fine-scale analysis for an intensively studied haul-out (Spider Island) and a broader analysis of all of Glacier Bay. At Spider Island, estimated predation by sea lions increased and could account for the entirety of annual pup production in 5 of 8 yr since 1995. The predation rate, however, was not proportional to the number of predators. Predation by Steller sea lions is a new source of mortality that contributed to the seal declines; however, life history modeling indicates that it is unlikely that sea lion predation is the sole factor responsible for the large declines. [source] Novel Approach for Clustering Zeolite Crystal StructuresMOLECULAR INFORMATICS, Issue 4 2010M. Lach-hab Abstract Informatics approaches play an increasingly important role in the design of new materials. In this work we apply unsupervised statistical learning for identifying four framework-type attractors of zeolite crystals in which several of the zeolite framework types are grouped together. Zeolites belonging to these super-classes manifest important topological, chemical and physical similarities. The zeolites form clusters located around four core framework types: LTA, FAU, MFI and the combination of EDI, HEU, LTL and LAU. Clustering is performed in a 9-dimensional space of attributes that reflect topological, chemical and physical properties for each individual zeolite crystalline structure. The implemented machine learning approach relies on hierarchical top-down clustering approach and the expectation maximization method. The model is trained and tested on ten partially independent data sets from the FIZ/NIST Inorganic Crystal Structure Database [source] A genome map of divergent artificial selection between Bos taurus dairy cattle and Bos taurus beef cattleANIMAL GENETICS, Issue 2 2009B. J. Hayes Summary A number of cattle breeds have become highly specialized for milk or beef production, following strong artificial selection for these traits. In this paper, we compare allele frequencies from 9323 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers genotyped in dairy and beef cattle breeds averaged in sliding windows across the genome, with the aim of identifying divergently selected regions of the genome between the production types. The value of the method for identifying selection signatures was validated by four sources of evidence. First, differences in allele frequencies between dairy and beef cattle at individual SNPs were correlated with the effects of those SNPs on production traits. Secondly, large differences in allele frequencies generally occurred in the same location for two independent data sets (correlation 0.45) between sliding window averages. Thirdly, the largest differences in sliding window average difference in allele frequencies were found on chromosome 20 in the region of the growth hormone receptor gene, which carries a mutation known to have an effect on milk production traits in a number of dairy populations. Finally, for the chromosome tested, the location of selection signatures between dairy and beef cattle was correlated with the location of selection signatures within dairy cattle. [source] Censusing and Measuring Lianas: A Quantitative Comparison of the Common Methods,BIOTROPICA, Issue 5 2006Stefan A. Schnitzer ABSTRACT Lianas contribute to many aspects of tropical forest diversity and dynamics, and interest in liana ecology has grown substantially in recent years. Methods to census lianas and estimate biomass, however, differ among studies, possibly hindering attempts to compare liana communities. At Nouragues Research Station (French Guiana), we tested the extent to which liana abundance, basal area, and estimated biomass differed depending on stem diameter measurement location, inclusion of ramets, inclusion of lianas rooted within versus passing through the plot, and plot shape. We found that the mean per plot abundance and basal area of lianas were significantly greater when lianas were measured low on the stem, when ramets were included, and when lianas were sampled in transects (2 × 50 m) than in square plots (10 × 10 m). Mean per plot liana abundance and basal area were 21 percent and 58 percent greater, when stems were measured at the largest spot on the stem compared to 130 cm from the ground, respectively. Including liana ramets increased average per plot liana abundance, basal area, and estimated biomass by 19, 17, and 16 percent, respectively. To facilitate cross-study comparisons, we developed conversion equations that equate liana abundance, diameter, and basal area based on the measurements taken at four different stem locations. We tested these equations at Lambir Hills National Park, Malaysia and found that they did not differ significantly between the two sites, suggesting that the equations may be broadly applicable. Finally, we present a new allometric equation relating diameter and biomass developed from 424 lianas from five independent data sets collected in four countries. RÉSUMÉ Les lianes contribuent de diverse manière à la diversité et à la dynamique des forêts tropicales, et l'intérêt pour l'écologie des lianes s'est beaucoup accru ces dernières années. Cependant, les méthodes pour recenser les lianes et estimer leur biomasse varient d'une étude à l'autre, et peuvent entraver les tentatives de comparaison des communautés de lianes. A la Station de Recherche des Nouragues (Guyane Française), nous avons évalué la variation de l'abondance, de la surface terrière et de la biomasse des lianes, en fonction de la position de mesure du diamètre sur le tronc, de l'inclusion des rameaux, de l'inclusion des lianes enracinées dans la parcelle plutôt que passant dans la parcelle, et de la forme de la parcelle. Nous avons trouvé que l'abondance et la surface terrière moyennes des lianes par parcelle étaient significativement plus importantes lorsque les lianes étaient mesurées en bas de la tige, lorsque les rameaux étaient inclus, et lorsque les lianes étaient échantillonnées dans des transects (2x50m) plutôt que dans des parcelles carrées (10x10m). L'inclusion des rameaux dans l'échantillonnage augmentait l'abondance moyenne des lianes par parcelle de 19 pour cent, leur surface terrière de 17 pour cent et leur biomasse de 16 pour cent. Afin de faciliter les comparaisons entre études, nous avons développé des équations de conversion qui relient l'abondance, le diamètre et la surface terrière des lianes à partir de mesures prises à quatre endroits sur la tige. Nous avons testé la validité de ces équations au Parc National de Lambir Hills (Malaisie): les équations ne variaient pas de manière significative entre les deux sites, suggérant qu'elles pourraient être largement applicables. Finalement, nous présentons une nouvelle équation allométrique reliant diamètre et biomasse des lianes, construite à partir de 424 lianes de cinq ensembles de données échantillonnées dans quatre pays. [source] Maternal severe migraine and risk of congenital limb deficienciesBIRTH DEFECTS RESEARCH, Issue 8 2006Ferenc Bánhidy Abstract BACKGROUND: Migraines occurs frequently during pregnancy; however, there are no published data on their possible teratogenic potential in a controlled epidemiological study. Therefore, we examined the risk of congenital abnormalities in infants born to women who had migraines and other headaches during pregnancy. METHODS: Between 1980 and 1996, the Hungarian Case-Control Surveillance of Congenital Abnormalities evaluated 22,843 cases (newborns or fetuses) with congenital abnormalities, 38,151 control newborn infants without any abnormalities, and 834 malformed controls with Down syndrome. RESULTS: Migraines anytime during pregnancy occurred in 565 (2.5%) mothers of the case group compared with 713 (1.9%) mothers in the control group (crude prevalence odds ratio [POR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2,1.5) and 24 (2.9%) pregnant women in the malformed control group (crude POR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.6,1.3) The mothers of 247 cases, 533 controls, and 21 malformed controls had severe migraines during the second and/or third months of pregnancy. There was only 1 congenital abnormality group: limb deficiencies, which had a higher rate of maternal migraines during the second and third months of pregnancy both at the comparison of cases and matched controls (adjusted POR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.1,5.8) and of cases and malformed controls (adjusted POR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.3,3.0). There was no association between other headaches and different congenital abnormalities at the comparison of cases and controls. CONCLUSIONS: Our data showed that maternal severe migraines during the second and/or third months of pregnancy were associated with an increased risk of congenital limb deficiencies. A similar association was not detected between congenital anomalies and other headaches during pregnancy. Our study was not based on a prior hypothesis; therefore, these data can be considered only as a signal that needs confirmation by independent data sets. Birth Defects Research (Part A), 2006. © 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] | |||||||||||||