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Increased Variance (increased + variance)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Life Sciences	60%

Selected Abstracts

Limitation of population recovery: a stochastic approach to the case of the emperor penguin

OIKOS, Issue 9 2009
Stéphanie Jenouvrier
Major population crashes due to natural or human-induced environmental changes may be followed by recoveries. There is a growing interest in the factors governing recovery, in hopes that they might guide population conservation and management, as well as population recovery following a re-introduction program. The emperor penguin Aptenodytes forsteri population in Terre Adélie, Antarctica, declined by 50% during a regime shift in the mid-1970s, when abrupt changes in climate and ocean environment regimes affected the entire Southern Ocean ecosystem. Since then the population has remained stable and has not recovered. To determine the factors limiting recovery, we examined the consequences of changes in survival and breeding success after the regime shift. Adult survival recovered to its pre-regime shift level, but the mean breeding success declined and the variance in breeding success increased after the regime shift. Using stochastic matrix population models, we found that if the distribution of breeding success observed prior to the regime shift had been retained, the emperor penguin population would have recovered, with a median time to recovery of 36 years. The observed distribution of breeding success after the regime shift makes recovery very unlikely. This indicates that the pattern of breeding success is sufficient to have prevented emperor penguin population recovery. The population trajectory predicted on the basis of breeding success agrees with the observed trajectory. This suggests that the net effect of any facors other than breeding success must be small. We found that the probability of recovery and the time to recovery depend on both the mean and variance of breeding success. Increased variance in breeding success increases the probability of recovery when mean success is low, but has the opposite effect when the mean is high. This study shows the important role of breeding success in determining population recovery for a long-lived species and demonstrates that demographic mechanisms causing population crash can be different from those preventing population recovery. [source]

Increased Behavioral Variation and the Calculation of Release Numbers for Reintroduction Programs

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2004
M. ELSBETH McPHEE
This increased variation can translate into decreased survivorship upon reintroduction to native habitats. Data show that captive populations of oldfield mice (Peromyscus polionotus subgriseus) exhibit such an increase in variation. Motivated by these results, we developed a series of calculations for a "release ratio" that can be used to determine the number of captive-bred animals needed to compensate for the increased variance. We present calculations of release ratios for behavioral and morphological variables with different distributions and illustrate the functional relationship between release numbers, increased variation, and change in average behavior and morphology. Our calculations indicated that the release of 130,150 captive-bred oldfield mice is equivalent to the release of 100 wildlike animals. Release ratios will vary among species, however, and perhaps among different populations of the same species and should be calculated separately for each situation. Development of the release ratio is the first rigorous effort to incorporate behavioral and morphological changes due to captivity into reintroduction planning. Release ratios will help conservation biologists ensure that the appropriate number of animals is released, thus increasing the success of reintroduction programs. Resumen:,Las poblaciones cautivas pueden exhibir mayor variación conductual que sus contrapartes silvestres como resultado del relajamiento de presiones selectivas en el ambiente de cautiverio. Esta variación incrementada puede traducirse en una disminución de la supervivencia en la reintroducción a hábitats nativos. Hay datos que muestran que poblaciones cautivas de ratones Peromyscus polionotus subgriseus exhiben tal incremento en la variación. Motivados por estos resultados, desarrollamos una serie de cálculos para un "índice de liberación" que pueda utilizarse para determinar el número de animales criados en cautiverio requerido para compensar la variación incrementada. Presentamos los cálculos de 2 índices de liberación para variables conductuales y morfológicas con distribuciones diferentes e ilustramos la relación funcional entre el número de liberaciones, la variación incrementada y el cambio en la conducta promedio y la morfología. Nuestros cálculos indicaron que la liberación de 130 a 150 ratones es equivalente a la liberación de 100 animales silvestres. Sin embargo, los índices de liberación varían entre especies y quizás entre poblaciones diferentes de la misma especie y deben calcularse por separado en cada situación. El desarrollo de índices de liberación es el primer esfuerzo riguroso para incorporar cambios conductuales y morfológicos debido al cautiverio en la planificación de reintroducciones. Los índices de liberación ayudarán a que los biólogos de la conservación se aseguren que el número de animales liberados es el apropiado, incrementando con ello el éxito de los programas de reintroducción. [source]

Player salary share and the distribution of player earnings

MANAGERIAL AND DECISION ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2004
Gerald W. Scully
Veteran free agency in professional team sports has led to higher average player compensation, an increase in the share of league revenues going to players, and increased dispersion in player earnings. Tests on the distributions of player salaries in the last decade reject that they are the same in the early and later years. The variance in baseball player compensation is decomposed into share and marginal revenue product effects for 1990 and 1998, and it is found that both effects contributed to the increased variance in player salaries. A simulation of the effect of universal free agency in baseball suggests a modest increase in player salary share and a drop in compensation inequality among players. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Methodological considerations in the use of salivary ,-amylase as a stress marker in field research

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMAN BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2008
Jason A. DeCaro
Salivary ,-amylase recently has been identified as a stress-related biomarker for autonomic nervous system activity. This study addresses sample collection and handling considerations for field researchers. Saliva was collected by unstimulated passive drool from 14 adults and pooled. Incubation of pooled saliva at 22 or 37°C for 21 days did not diminish amylase activity. However, sodium azide added at concentrations ,1.12 mg/ml to pooled saliva artificially inflated activity. After dosing cotton rolls within Salivette saliva collection devices with 0.25 to 1.5 ml of unpooled passive drool saliva from six additional adults, recovery of amylase activity was significantly below 100% at all volumes, with increased variance in recovery when the cotton was incompletely saturated (,1.0 ml). Hence, collection by passive drool instead of cotton-containing devices for amylase determinations is recommended, particularly whenever it is impossible to ensure full, uniform cotton saturation, and azide should be avoided as a preservative. Am. J. Hum. Biol., 2008. © 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source]

Calculating Sample Size for Studies with Expected All-or-None Nonadherence and Selection Bias

BIOMETRICS, Issue 2 2009
Michelle D. Shardell
Summary We develop sample size formulas for studies aiming to test mean differences between a treatment and control group when all-or-none nonadherence (noncompliance) and selection bias are expected. Recent work by Fay, Halloran, and Follmann (2007, Biometrics63, 465,474) addressed the increased variances within groups defined by treatment assignment when nonadherence occurs, compared to the scenario of full adherence, under the assumption of no selection bias. In this article, we extend the authors' approach to allow selection bias in the form of systematic differences in means and variances among latent adherence subgroups. We illustrate the approach by performing sample size calculations to plan clinical trials with and without pilot adherence data. Sample size formulas and tests for normally distributed outcomes are also developed in a Web Appendix that account for uncertainty of estimates from external or internal pilot data. [source]