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Hypothetical Scenarios (hypothetical + scenario)
Selected AbstractsThe conversion of the corn/soybean ecosystem to no-till agriculture may result in a carbon sinkGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 11 2005Carl J. Bernacchi Abstract Mitigating or slowing an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) has been the focus of international efforts, most apparent with the development of the Kyoto Protocol. Sequestration of carbon (C) in agricultural soils is being advocated as a method to assist in meeting the demands of an international C credit system. The conversion of conventionally tilled agricultural lands to no till is widely accepted as having a large-scale sequestration potential. In this study, C flux measurements over a no-till corn/soybean agricultural ecosystem over 6 years were coupled with estimates of C release associated with agricultural practices to assess the net biome productivity (NBP) of this no-till ecosystem. Estimates of NBP were also calculated for the conventionally tilled corn/soybean ecosystem assuming net ecosystem exchange is C neutral. These measurements were scaled to the US as a whole to determine the sequestration potential of corn/soybean ecosystems, under current practices where 10% of agricultural land devoted to this ecosystem is no-tilled and under a hypothetical scenario where 100% of the land is not tilled. The estimates of this analysis show that current corn/soybean agriculture in the US releases ,7.2 Tg C annually, with no-till sequestering ,2.2 Tg and conventional-till releasing ,9.4 Tg. The complete conversion of land area to no till might result in 21.7 Tg C sequestered annually, representing a net C flux difference of ,29 Tg C. These results demonstrate that large-scale conversion to no-till practices, at least for the corn/soybean ecosystem, could potentially offset ca. 2% of annual US carbon emissions. [source] Pharmaceutical company influences on medication prescribing and their potential impact on quality use of medicinesJOURNAL OF CLINICAL PHARMACY & THERAPEUTICS, Issue 5 2008G. J. Kyle BPharm MClinPharm Summary Background:, Pharmaceuticals are big business, reporting strong market growth year after year. The ,gatekeepers' of this market are prescribers of medicines, who are the major target of pharmaceutical companies, utilizing direct and indirect influences. Methods:, This paper draws on previous research investigating pharmaceutical company prescribing influences to develop a qualitative model demonstrating the synergism between commercial influences on prescribing. The generic model was used to explore a realistic but hypothetical scenario to ascertain the applicability of the model. Results and Discussion:, A generic influence model was developed. The model was readily able to be adapted to reflect a realistic practice scenario. Conclusion:, Prescriber awareness of the linkages between various seemingly separate marketing techniques could potentially improve medicines usage in an evidence-based practice paradigm. [source] Phylogeography and postglacial expansion of Mus musculus domesticus inferred from mitochondrial DNA coalescent, from Iran to EuropeMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2008HASSAN RAJABI-MAHAM Abstract Few genetic data document the postglacial history of the western house mouse, Mus musculus domesticus. We address this by studying a sample from the southeastern tip of the Fertile Crescent in the Iranian province of Ahvaz. Including other published and unpublished data from France, Germany, Italy, Bulgaria, Turkey and other places in Iran, altogether 321 mitochondrial D-loop sequences are simultaneously analysed. The patterns of coalescence obtained corroborate the classical proposal according to which the Fertile Crescent is where commensalism with humans has started in the Western Hemisphere, and from where the subspecies has expanded further west. Our data also clearly show that despite multiple colonisations and long-range transportation, there is still a rather high ,ST of 0.39. The original expansion signal is still recognisable, with two well-separated derived clades, allowing us to propose a hypothetical scenario in which expansion toward Europe and Asia Minor took at least two routes, tentatively termed the Mediterranean and the Bosphorus/Black Sea routes. This scenario resembles that of another domesticated species, the goat, and fits with the known progression of Neolithic culture. Given the concomitance of both phenomena around 12 000 years ago, we propose a recalibration of the D-loop mutation rate to a much faster tick of ~40% per site per million years (Myr). This value should be used for intrasubspecific polymorphism, while the interspecific rate in Mus is presently estimated at 6,10%/site/Myr. This is in keeping with the now well recognised fact that only a subfraction of segregating mutations go to fixation. [source] From hypothetical scenario to tragic reality: A salutary lesson in risk communication and the Victorian 2009 bushfiresAUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Issue 1 2010Robin Burns Abstract Objective: To investigate the ways that the risk of a bushfire emergency and communication strategies are perceived by different community segments. Methods: A brief questionnaire preceded focus group discussion of a bushfire scenario with four communications from different sources. Groups were recruited to represent different community segments within a bushfire-prone peri-urban Shire in Victoria. Results: Four groups (28 participants) were recruited. Bushfire experience was highest in the over 40-year-olds, who would use a variety of information sources, preferred to receive information from trusted local sources, such as emergency services and the council, and were more likely to be a member of a local organisation than the under 40s. Younger people used television, local papers, and friends, family and neighbours as information sources. Young parents felt disempowered through lack of local knowledge, and trusted government departments less than older residents. All wanted clear, current, specific local information about ground conditions and actions to be taken during a fire outbreak. Conclusions/implications: Knowledge of and preparedness for bushfire is unequally spread throughout a bushfire community. There is a need in public health risk and emergency situations to focus on community development, information and consultation. [source] The use of hypothetical scenarios and importance weightings when measuring the impact of diabetes on quality of life.DIABETIC MEDICINE, Issue 10 2009A response to Brose et al. No abstract is available for this article. [source] Effects of Internal and External Pay Comparisons on Work Attitudes,JOURNAL OF APPLIED SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 10 2006Ted H. Shore The effects of internal and external pay comparisons on several work attitudes were assessed within an experimental design. Participants responded to hypothetical scenarios in which their pay was greater, less, or equal to an internal and external individual or group referent. As predicted, internal and external pay comparisons predicted pay satisfaction and perceived pay fairness. Also as expected, internal equity was the stronger predictor of work motivation and perceived organizational support, and external equity predicted turnover intention more strongly. Partial support was found for the hypothesis that work attitudes would be impacted more strongly when individuals made pay comparisons with a group referent than with an individual referent other. Implications for the design of compensation systems are discussed. [source] Grade expectations: the effects of expectations on fairness and satisfaction perceptionsJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 5 2003Bennett Cherry Abstract Previous research has documented the impact of self--derived expectations as reference points in the evaluation of outcomes (e.g. Ordóñez, Connolly, & Coughlan, 2000; van den Bos et al., 1998). In the present paper we extend these studies by investigating the effects of individuals' performance expectations on their subsequent evaluations of personally--relevant outcomes. In three separate studies, both in the laboratory and in the field, students' actual grade outcomes fell short, met, or exceeded grade expectations. From this information, the students evaluated their fairness and satisfaction with the actual grade outcome. The studies provide complementary results that distinguish fairness and satisfaction as different constructs based on the impact of expectations on evaluations of actual outcomes. Results demonstrate that expectations are important to perceptions of fairness and are less important to perceptions of satisfaction. Fairness judgments appear to be governed by an expectation matching proposition; whereby if the expectation is met, the outcome is fair. Whereas, satisfaction judgments are determined by the value of the actual outcome to the individual. Participants also evaluate the fairness of outcomes differently using hypothetical scenarios than they do when they experience actual outcomes in natural contexts. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Action, inaction, and factors influencing perceived decision makingJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, Issue 4 2001Laura Y. Niedermayer Abstract Two studies examined factors hypothesized to be related to the subjective perception of decision making. A total of 302 introductory psychology students read four hypothetical scenarios that varied on two dimensions: frequency of the behavior and whether the behavior was an action or an inaction (a 2 × 2 design). Subjects rated the scenarios on whether the actor made a decision. In Experiment 1, the frequency of behavior was unrelated to decision making. In addition, actions were given higher decision ratings than inactions in two scenarios, but lower ratings in the other two scenarios. In Experiment 2 the latter discrepancy was explained by ratings of whether the actor behaved thoughtfully rather than reflexively, in that these ratings mediated the action,decision rating relationship. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Longer you play, the more hostile you feel: examination of first person shooter video games and aggression during video game playAGGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR, Issue 6 2007Christopher P. Barlett Abstract This study investigated the effects of video game play on aggression. Using the General Aggression Model, as applied to video games by Anderson and Bushman, [2002] this study measured physiological arousal, state hostility, and how aggressively participants would respond to three hypothetical scenarios. In addition, this study measured each of these variables multiple times to gauge how aggression would change with increased video game play. Results showed a significant increase from baseline in hostility and aggression (based on two of the three story stems), which is consistent with the General Aggression Model. This study adds to the existing literature on video games and aggression by showing that increased play of a violent first person shooter video game can significantly increase aggression from baseline. Aggr. Behav. 33:486,497, 2007. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Predicted population trends for Cozumel Curassows (Crax rubra griscomi): empirical evidence and predictive models in the face of climate changeJOURNAL OF FIELD ORNITHOLOGY, Issue 4 2009Miguel A. Martínez-Morales ABSTRACT We assessed the current conservation status and population trends of Cozumel Curassows (Crax rubra griscomi), a critically endangered and endemic cracid of Cozumel Island, Mexico. Distance sampling was used to estimate the population size in 2005 and compare it with a previous estimate in 1995. Population viability analysis (PVA) was used to model population trends, considering ecological and environmental conditions prevailing in 1995 and 2005. Additional PVA models were constructed using different hypothetical scenarios to assess the effects of particular factors and management strategies on population trends. We estimated a population size of 372 ± 155 curassows in the island's tropical semideciduous forest, before two hurricanes hit Cozumel Island in 2005. PVA modeling predicted a steep decline in population size in the ensuing decades as a result of an increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes related to global climate change, and an observed female bias in the sex ratio likely caused by a higher mortality rate for adult males. We recommend urgent management actions for the long-term conservation of Cozumel Curassows, including a ban on hunting, eradication of the feral fauna, particularly dogs, and implementation of a captive-breeding program to supplement the wild population. RESUMEN Evaluamos el estado de conservación actual y las tendencias poblacionales del hocofaisán de Cozumel (Crax rubra griscomi), un crácido críticamente amenazado y endémico a la Isla de Cozumel, México. Se empleó el muestreo de distancias para estimar su tamaño poblacional en 2005 y compararlo con la estimación previa de 1995. Se emplearon análisis de viabilidad poblacional (AVP) para modelar tendencias poblacionales considerando las condiciones ecológicas y ambientales prevalecientes en 1995 y 2005. Adicionalmente, se construyeron modelos de AVP bajo diferentes escenarios hipotéticos para evaluar los efectos de factores específicos y estrategias de manejo sobre su tendencia poblacional. Estimamos un tamaño poblacional de 372 ± 155 hocofaisanes en la selva mediana subcaducifolia de la isla, antes del impacto de dos huracanes sobre Cozumel en 2005. El AVP predijo una severa declinación en el tamaño poblacional en las siguientes décadas como resultado de un incremento en la frecuencia e intensidad de huracanes relacionado con el cambio climático global, y de un sesgo en la proporción sexual hacia las hembras, probablemente asociado a una mayor mortalidad de machos adultos. Recomendamos acciones de manejo urgentes para la conservación a largo plazo del hocofaisán de Cozumel, incluyendo una efectiva prohibición de la cacería, la erradicación completa de fauna feral, particularmente perros, y la implementación de un programa de reproducción en cautiverio para suplementar la población silvestre. [source] New results concerning the morphology of the most ancient dragonflies (Insecta: Odonatoptera) from the Namurian of Hagen-Vorhalle (Germany)JOURNAL OF ZOOLOGICAL SYSTEMATICS AND EVOLUTIONARY RESEARCH, Issue 4 2001G. Bechly The holotype specimen of the ,protodonate'Erasipteroides valentini (Brauckmann in Brauckmann et al., 1985) and the paratype specimen K-13 of the giant ,protodonate'Namurotypus sippeliBrauckmann and Zessin, 1989 from the Upper Carboniferous (Namurian B) of Hagen-Vorhalle (Germany) are redescribed, and a new specimen of Erasipteroides cf. valentini is described. The new evidence is used to refine the groundplan reconstruction of Odonatoptera and the reconstruction of odonatoid phylogeny. Prothoracic winglets for Erasipteroides and the absence of an archaedictyon are documented. Furthermore, a very long and sclerotized ovipositor with gonangulum is described from the female holotype specimen of Erasipteroides valentini, and it is proposed that it was not used for endophytic but for endosubstratic oviposition. The record of prothoracic winglets in early odonatoids, and their presence in fossil Palaeodictyoptera and ,protorthopteres', indicates that the groundplan of Pterygota indeed included three pairs of wings. A phylogenetic analysis suggests that the Palaeozoic giant Meganisoptera and "higher" odonatoids (incl. crowngroup Odonata) together form a monophyletic group which is here named Euodonatoptera. Erasipteroides and the other ,Erasipteridae' are shown to be more closely related to Euodonatoptera than to Eugeropteridae. The description of the male primary genital structures of Namurotypus sippeli is emended and a new interpretation is proposed, including new hypotheses concerning their function. The males of Namurotypus had a paired penis with a pair of lateral parameres, and a pair of leaf-like, but still segmented, gonopods. Segmented leg-like male gonopods are considered as a groundplan character of insects, while a paired penis is regarded as a putative synapomorphy of the palaeopterous insect orders Palaeodictyopteroida, Ephemeroptera, and Odonatoptera. It is proposed that Namurotypus did not mate by direct copulation but retained the archaic deposition of external spermatophores, just like the primarily wingless insects. The sigmoidal male cerci may have been placed behind the female head and used to drag the female over the spermatophore, which is remotely similar to the mating behaviour of some extant arachnids (e.g. Amblypygi). Three hypothetical scenarios regarding the evolution of secondary copulation in modern Odonata are proposed. Neue Erkenntnisse zur Morphologie der ältesten Libellen (Insecta: Odonatoptera) aus dem Namurium von Hagen-Vorhalle (Deutschland) Das Holotypusexemplar der ,Protodonate'Erasipteroides valentini (Brauckmann in Brauckmann et al., Geol. Paläont. Westfalen 3, 1,131, 1985) und das Paratypusexemplar K-13 der riesenwüchsigen ,Protodonate'Namurotypus sippeliBrauckmann and Zessin, 1989 aus dem Oberkarbon (Namurium B) von Hagen-Vorhalle (Deutschland) werden wiederbeschrieben. Die neuen Erkenntnisse werden zu einer Präzisierung der Grundplanrekonstruktion der Odonatoptera und für die Rekonstruktion der Libellenstammesgeschichte verwendet. Für Erasipteroides werden prothorakale Flügelchen beschrieben und das Fehlen eines Archaedictyons wird belegt. Des weiteren wird ein sehr langer und sklerotisierter Ovipositor mit Gonangulum für das weibliche Holotypusexemplar von Erasipteroides valentini beschrieben, und es wird vorgeschlagen, dass dieser nicht zur endophytischen Eiablage, sondern zur endosubstratischen Eiablage diente. Der Nachweis prothorakaler Flügelchen bei frühen Libellen sowie deren Vorkommen bei fossilen Palaeodictyoptera und ,Protorthopteren', deutet darauf hin, dass zum Grundplan der Pterygota drei Flügelpaare gehörten. Eine phylogenetische Analyse legt nahe, dass die riesenwüchsigen Meganisoptera des Paläozoikums und die ,höheren' Odonaten (inkl. Kronengruppe Odonata) gemeinsam eine monophyletische Gruppe bilden, die hier als Euodonatoptera benannt wird. Es wird gezeigt, dass Erasipteroides und die übrigen ,Erasipteridae' näher mit den Euodonatoptera verwandt sind als die Eugeropteridae. Die Beschreibung der primären männlichen Geschlechtsorgane von Namurotypus sippeli wird ergänzt, und eine neue Interpretation sowie neue Hypothesen zu deren Funktion werden vorgestellt. Die Männchen von Namurotypus besaßen einen paarigen Penis mit einem Paar lateraler Parameren und einem Paar blattartiger, aber noch segmentierter Gonopoden. Segmentierte, beinartige, männliche Gonopoden werden als Grundplanmerkmale der Insekten angesehen, während ein paariger Penis als potentielle Synapomorphie der paläopteren Insektenordnungen Palaeodictyopteroida, Ephemeroptera und Odonatoptera betrachtet wird. Es wird vorgeschlagen, dass die Paarung bei Namurotypus nicht durch eine direkte Kopulation ablief, sondern durch das Absetzen freier Spermatophoren, so wie bei den primär flügellosen Insekten. Die sigmoidalen männlichen Cerci könnten hinter dem weiblichen Kopf platziert worden sein, um das Weibchen über die Spermatophore zu dirigieren, ähnlich dem Paarungsverhalten mancher rezenter Spinnentiere (z.B. Amblypygi). Drei hypothetische Szenarien zur Evolution der sekundären Kopulation bei modernen Libellen werden vorgestellt. [source] Understanding the Judicial Role in Addressing Gender Bias: A View from the Eighth Circuit Federal Court SystemLAW & SOCIAL INQUIRY, Issue 2 2002Kimberly A. Lonsway The role of trial judges in the litigation process is frequently debated. Are judges to be dispassionate adjudicators, disengaged referees in a sport in which attorneys compete? Or are they charged with a more active role in promoting the substance, form, and process of justice? In the present paper, we explore the judicial role in addressing gender bias in federal litigation, using data gathered for the Eighth Circuit Gender Fairness Task Force. The federal judges of this circuit were surveyed about their experiences, observations, and opinions of gender-biased conduct. Results indicated that although judges viewed judicial intervention as an appropriate response to gender bias, they had little personal experience with intervention in such a situation. Fur thermore, when specific hypothetical scenarios were presented, they generally agreed that the described conduct was inappropriate but offered little consensus regarding the best course of action for an attorney or judge confronted with such behavior. The Eighth Circuit data thus provide the basis for expanded understanding of the conduct at issue, the options for action in response, and the persistent discrepancy in viewpoints on gender bias and the judicial role. [source] Redrawing organ distribution boundaries: Results of a computer-simulated analysis for liver transplantationLIVER TRANSPLANTATION, Issue 8 2002Richard B. Freeman MD For several years, the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network/United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) Liver and Intestinal Transplantation Committee has been examining effects of changes and proposed changes to the liver allocation system. The Institute of Medicine recently recommended that the size of liver distribution units be increased to improve the organ distribution system. Methods to achieve this and the potential impact on patients and transplant centers of such a change are evaluated in this study. In hypothetical scenarios, we combined geographically contiguous organ procurement organizations (OPOs) in seven different configurations to increase the size of liver distribution units to cover populations greater than 9 million persons. Using the UNOS Liver Allocation Model (ULAM), we examined the effect of 17 different organ allocation sequences in these proposed realignments and compared them with those predicted by ULAM for the current liver distribution system by using the following primary outcome variables: number of primary liver transplantations performed, total number of deaths, and total number of life-years saved. Every proposed new liver distribution unit plan resulted in fewer primary transplantations. Many policies increased the total number of deaths and reduced total life-years saved compared with the current system. Most of the proposed plans reduced interregional variation compared with the current plan, but no one plan consistently reduced variation for all outcome variables, and all reductions in variations were relatively small. All new liver distribution unit plans led to significant shifts in the number of transplantations performed in individual OPOs compared with the current system. The ULAM predicts that changing liver distribution units to larger geographic areas has little positive impact on overall results of liver transplantation in the United States compared with the current plan. Enlarging liver distribution units likely will result in significant shifts in organs across current OPO boundaries, which will have a significant impact on the activity of many transplant centers. [source] Theory, Stylized Heuristic or Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, Issue 1 2004The Status of Rational Choice Theory in Public Administration Rational choice is intimately associated with positivism and naturalism, its appeal to scholars of public administration lying in its ability to offer a predictive science of politics that is parsimonious in its analytical assumptions, rigorous in its deductive reasoning and overarching in its apparent applicability. In this paper I re-examine the ontology and epistemology which underpins this distinctive approach to public administration, challenging the necessity of the generally unquestioned association between rational choice and both positivism and naturalism. Rational choice, I contend, can only defend its claim to offer a predictive science of politics on the basis of an ingenious, paradoxical, and seldom acknowledged structuralism and a series of analytical assumptions incapable of capturing the complexity and contingency of political systems. I argue that analytical parsimony, though itself a condition of naturalism, is in fact incompatible with the deduction of genuinely explanatory/causal inferences. This suggests that the status of rational choice as an explanatory/predictive theory needs to be reassessed. Yet this is no reason to reject rational choice out of hand. For, deployed not as a theory in its own right, but as a heuristic analytical strategy for exploring hypothetical scenarios, it is a potent and powerful resource in post-positivist public administration. [source] The Role of Differential Diagnoses in Self-Triage Decision-MakingAPPLIED PSYCHOLOGY: HEALTH AND WELL-BEING, Issue 1 2010Elizabeth C. Hall Self-triage, or the decision if and when to seek medical care is crucial, but also intrinsically difficult. The current study evaluates how the presence of competing diagnoses with differing severities influences participants' likelihood of seeking care. Participants were healthy undergraduate students from McMaster University. In a within-subjects design, participants rated the urgency with which they would seek medical care for a series of hypothetical scenarios. Each scenario included symptoms and either a low-severity diagnosis, a high-severity diagnosis, or a differential diagnosis where both high- and low-severity options were presented. Participants rated low-severity diagnoses as less urgent than high-severity diagnoses, as expected. Critically, when presented with both low- and high-severity options, participants rated scenarios with an intermediate level of urgency. Further analyses showed that participants appeared to base their urgency judgments on the low-severity diagnosis and then adjust their ratings upward when presented with a high-severity alternative. The results demonstrate that even when one of the possible diagnoses presented would require immediate care if accurate, ratings of urgency were significantly decreased if another less serious alternative was also suggested, potentially leading to sub-optimal decision-making. Implications of this observed pattern of self-triage decision-making are discussed. 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