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Annual Population Growth Rates (annual + population_growth_rate)
Selected AbstractsThe Interplay between Climate Variability and Density Dependence in the Population Viability of Chinook SalmonCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2006RICHARD W. ZABEL análisis de viabilidad poblacional; especies en peligro; Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Abstract:,The viability of populations is influenced by driving forces such as density dependence and climate variability, but most population viability analyses (PVAs) ignore these factors because of data limitations. Additionally, simplified PVAs produce limited measures of population viability such as annual population growth rate (,) or extinction risk. Here we developed a "mechanistic" PVA of threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in which, based on 40 years of detailed data, we related freshwater recruitment of juveniles to density of spawners, and third-year survival in the ocean to monthly indices of broad-scale ocean and climate conditions. Including climate variability in the model produced important effects: estimated population viability was very sensitive to assumptions of future climate conditions and the autocorrelation contained in the climate signal increased mean population abundance while increasing probability of quasi extinction. Because of the presence of density dependence in the model, however, we could not distinguish among alternative climate scenarios through mean , values, emphasizing the importance of considering multiple measures to elucidate population viability. Our sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the importance of particular parameters varied across models and depended on which viability measure was the response variable. The density-dependent parameter associated with freshwater recruitment was consistently the most important, regardless of viability measure, suggesting that increasing juvenile carrying capacity is important for recovery. Resumen:,La viabilidad de poblaciones esta influida por fuerzas conductoras como la denso dependencia y la variabilidad climática, pero la mayoría de los análisis de viabilidad poblacional (AVP) ignoran estos factores debido a limitaciones en la disponibilidad de datos. Adicionalmente, los AVP simplificados producen medidas limitadas de la viabilidad poblacional tales como la tasa anual de crecimiento poblacional (,) o el riesgo de extinción. Aquí desarrollamos un AVP "mecanicista" de Oncorhynchus tshawytscha en el que, con base en datos detallados de 40 años, relacionamos el reclutamiento de juveniles en agua dulce con la densidad de reproductores, y la supervivencia en el océano al tercer año con índices mensuales de condiciones oceánicas y climáticas a amplia escala. La inclusión de la variabilidad climática en el modelo produjo efectos importantes: la viabilidad poblacional estimada fue muy sensible a las suposiciones de condiciones climáticas futuras y la autocorrelación contenida en la señal climática aumentó la abundancia poblacional promedio al mismo tiempo que incrementó la probabilidad de cuasi extinción. Sin embargo, debido a la presencia de denso densidad en el modelo no pudimos distinguir entre escenarios climáticos alternativos a través de los valores promedio de ,, lo que enfatiza la importancia de considerar medidas múltiples para dilucidar la viabilidad poblacional. Nuestros análisis de sensibilidad demostraron que la importancia de parámetros particulares varió en los modelos y dependió de la medida de viabilidad utilizada como variable de respuesta. El parámetro de denso dependencia asociada con el reclutamiento en agua dulce consistentemente fue el más importante, independientemente de la medida de viabilidad, lo que sugiere que el incremento en la capacidad de carga de juveniles es importante para la recuperación. [source] Estimates of maximum annual population growth rates (rm) of mammals and their application in wildlife managementJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Jim Hone Summary 1.,The maximum annual population growth rate (rm) is a critical parameter in many models of wildlife dynamics and management. An important application of rm is the estimation of the maximum proportion of a population that can be removed to stop population growth (p). 2.,When rm cannot be estimated in the field, one option is to estimate it from demographic data. We evaluate the use of the relationship between rm and female age at first reproduction (,), which is independent of phylogeny, to estimate rm. We first demonstrate that the relationship between field and demographic estimates of rm is unbiased. We then show that the relationship provides an unbiased and simple method to estimate rm using data for 64 mammal species. We also show that p declines exponentially as , increases. 3.,We use the fitted relationship to estimate annual rm and p for 55 mammal species in Australia and New Zealand for which there are no field estimates of rm. The estimates differ by species but have low precision (wide 95% credible intervals CIs). Our estimate of rm for the Tasmanian devil Sarcophilus harrisii is high (0·6, 95% CI: 0·05,2·39) and suggests devils would become extinct if >0·34 of the population is removed annually (e.g. by facial tumour disease). Our estimate of rm (0·77, 95% CI: 0·71,1·05) for brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula is much greater than published estimates and highlights the need for further field estimates of rm for the species in New Zealand. 4.,Synthesis and applications. Since rm has not been estimated in the field for the majority of mammal species, our approach enables estimates with credible intervals for this important parameter to be obtained for any species for which female age at first reproduction is known. However, the estimates have wide 95% CIs. The estimated rm, and associated uncertainty can then be used in population and management models, perhaps most importantly to estimate the proportion that if removed annually would drive the population to extinction. Our approach can be used for taxa other than mammals. [source] Management actions are required to improve the viability of the rare grassland herb Carlina biebersteiniiNORDIC JOURNAL OF BOTANY, Issue 1-2 2008Satu Ramula Small population size of many rare or endangered plant species makes a quantitative assessment of population status challenging because of the lack of detailed demographic data on different life-history stages. However, an urgent assessment is often required to start possible management actions. We performed a count-based population viability analysis (PVA) using discontinuous time series to quantitatively assess the viability of a rare, monocarpic, grassland herb Carlina biebersteinii Bernh. ex Hornem. (synonyms: C. vulgaris L. ssp. longifolia, C. vulgaris L. ssp. stricta) and examined demographic and environmental factors contributing to its viability. Based on 12 abundance counts of eight C. biebersteinii populations in Finland, we found that seven out of the eight population sizes declined during the observation period, and that annual population growth rates were slightly synchronised among the populations. Synchrony in annual population growth rates declined with increasing geographic distances among the populations, while fluctuations in the number of flowering plants were unrelated to geographic distances among the populations. According to stochastic simulations, the risk of losing all flowering individuals during the next 20,years will be high for unmanaged populations. To prevent the populations from gradually declining, our results suggest that summer grazing or removal of woody vegetation is required to increase habitat openness and consequently, to improve fecundity and seedling recruitment. [source] Modelling impacts of long-line fishing: what are the effects of pair-bond disruption and sex-biased mortality on albatross fecundity?ANIMAL CONSERVATION, Issue 4 2005Michael S. L. Mills Long-line fishing mortality poses a significant threat to many large procellariiform seabirds. To date, estimates of impacts have concentrated on lower survival rates, largely ignoring the costs to fecundity resulting from disruption of breeding pairs and skews in sex ratio. A comparative, stochastic, individual-based model was used to investigate these costs for the wandering albatross Diomedea exulans. Ignoring the time taken to replace a lost mate overestimates fecundity by 13,18%, resulting in annual population growth rates (,) being 0.006,0.007 too high. Long-line mortality exacerbates this cost, which becomes more substantial with increasing demographic skew resulting from female-biased mortality. At moderate levels of long-line mortality (2,4% per year), 80% female-biased mortality reduces fecundity by 9,27% and , by 0.003,0.010 relative to models with random mortality. Biased sex ratios accumulate and, unlike reduced survival, their impacts on albatross demography persist after long-line mortality ceases. Estimates of the demographic costs of long-line mortality should incorporate individual-level effects, especially where mortality is sex-biased. [source] | ||||||||||