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Highest Probability (highest + probability)
Selected AbstractsInfluence of water flow velocity, water depth and colony distance on distribution and foraging patterns of terns in the Wadden SeaFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2009PHILIPP SCHWEMMER Abstract Surface-feeding seabirds, such as Common (Sterna hirundo) and Arctic Terns (Sterna paradisaea) in the German Wadden Sea, are dependent on biological and physical processes that affect prey availability close to the water surface. We proposed the following four hypotheses: (i) relationships should exist between high water flow velocity and foraging activity of terns, as turbulence should enhance prey availability at the surface; (ii) the areas of highest foraging success should be located within areas of low water depth, due to enhanced biological productivity; (iii) as terns are known to have small foraging radii, the location of their breeding grounds should be related to the location of their foraging grounds; (iv) terns should forage intensely in river estuaries, as these should hold ample food supplies. The time between terns leaving the colony and their first foraging attempt differed significantly among different tidal stages: the time was shortest during flood and ebb tides (i.e., highest water flow velocities). Modelling of a long-term data set revealed the highest probability of foraging activity in conditions of high water currents, in both shallow areas and in areas of around 15,20 m depth. Foraging activity was negatively correlated with distance from colony. The distance to the closest estuary had no significant effect on foraging behaviour. Our findings emphasize the physical,biological coupling in the Wadden Sea and highlight the overall importance of small-scale physical processes in directly influencing prey availability for surface-feeding seabirds. [source] Freshwater availability as the constraining factor in the Middle Paleoindian occupation of North-Central FloridaGEOARCHAEOLOGY: AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL, Issue 3 2009David K. Thulman The locations of reliable surface water exposures during the Middle Paleoindian period (10,800,10,200 14C yr B.P.) in north-central Florida are reconstructed and compared to the concentrations of Middle Paleoindian projectile points. Estimates of water table levels and surface water flow in Florida's karst geology confirm prior climate reconstructions for that time indicating the area was arid and supported a xeric ecology in most upland locales. Surface water flow data from recent extreme droughts and water table estimations are used to identify the areas of highest probability for surface water availability. The distribution of the highest concentrations of Middle Paleoindian points correlates with the areas of highest probability, indicating that scarce surface water sources were the strongest constraint on occupation location during that time. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] SUBURBANIZATION IN COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION: DESTINATIONS OF SUBURBANIZERS IN THE TALLINN METROPOLITAN AREAGEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES B: HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2007Kadri Leetmaa ABSTRACT. Suburbanization is one of the key phenomena of spatial population change in many countries in transition. Yet we know surprisingly little about the population carrying out the post-socialist suburbanization process. The objective of this article is to improve on this situation by studying the Tallinn metropolis in Estonia. Our analysis, which covers the inter-censal period 1989 to 2000, focuses on the differences between population subgroups with respect to their probabilities to move to the suburbs. As such, it also clarifies choices of destination by dwelling and municipality type. For the analysis, we use individual anonymous 2000 census data and logistic regression. The results indicate that suburbanization was a socially polarizing process during this period. People with low social status had the highest probability to sub-urbanize, and mainly occupied the pre-existing housing stock. Conversely, people with high social status were less likely to move into suburban areas, yet when they did they moved to the most attractive destinations in the suburbs (new single-family houses, coastal municipalities and municipalities closer to the city). [source] Relationship between sick leave, unemployment, disability, and health-related quality of life in patients with inflammatory bowel diseaseINFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASES, Issue 5 2006Tomm Bernklev BSc Background: The goal of this study was to determine the rate of work disability, unemployment, and sick leave in an unselected inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) cohort and to measure the effect of working status and disability on the patient's health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Materials and Methods: All eligible patients were clinically examined and interviewed at the 5-year follow-up visit. In addition, they completed the 2 HRQOL questionnaires, the Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36) and the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire validated for use in Norway (N-IBDQ). Data regarding sick leave, unemployment, and disability pension (DP) also were collected. Results: All together, 495 patients were or had been in the workforce during the 5-year follow-up period since diagnosis. Forty-two patients (8.5%) were on DP compared with 8.8% in the background population. Women with Crohn's disease (CD) had the highest probability of receiving DP (24.6%). A total of 58 patients (11.7%) reported they were unemployed at 5 years. This was equally distributed between men and women but was more frequent in patients with ulcerative colitis. Sick leave for all causes was reported in 47% with ulcerative colitis and 53% with CD, whereas IBD-related sick leave was reported in 18% and 23%, respectively. A majority (75%) had been sick <4 weeks, and a relatively small number of patients (25%) contributed to a large number of the total sick leave days. Both unemployment and DP reduced HRQOL scores, but the most pronounced effect on HRQOL was found in patients reporting IBD-related sick leave, measured with SF-36 and N-IBDQ. The observed differences also were highly clinically significant. Multiple regression analysis confirmed that IBD-related sick leave was the independent variable with the strongest association to the observed reduction in HRQOL scores. Conclusions: Unemployment or sick leave is more common in IBD patients than in the Norwegian background population. The number of patients receiving DP is significantly increased in women with CD but not in the other patient groups. Unemployment, sick leave, and DP are related to the patient's HRQOL in a negative way, but this effect is most pronounced in patients reporting IBD-related sick leave. [source] Hidden Markov model-based real-time transient identifications in nuclear power plantsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS, Issue 8 2002Kee-Choon Kwon In this article, a transient identification method based on a stochastic approach with the hidden Markov model (HMM) has been suggested and evaluated experimentally for the classification of nine types of transients in nuclear power plants (NPPs). A transient is defined as when a plant proceeds to an abnormal state from a normal state. Identification of the types of transients during an early accident stage in NPPs is crucial for proper action selection. The transient can be identified by its unique time-dependent patterns related to the principal variables. The HMM, a double-stochastic process, can be applied to transient identification that is a spatial and temporal classification problem under a statistical pattern-recognition framework. The trained HMM is created for each transient from a set of training data by the maximum-likelihood estimation method which uses a forward-backward algorithm and the Baum-Welch re-estimation algorithm. The transient identification is determined by calculating which model has the highest probability for given test data using the Viterbi algorithm. Several experimental tests have been performed with normalization methods, clustering algorithms, and a number of states in HMM. There are also a few experimental tests that have been performed, including superimposing random noise, adding systematic error, and adding untrained transients to verify its performance and robustness. The proposed real-time transient identification system has been proven to have many advantages, although there are still some problems that should be solved before applying it to an operating NPP. Further efforts are being made to improve the system performance and robustness in order to demonstrate reliability and accuracy to the required level. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] Thresholds in landscape connectivity and mortality risks in response to growing road networksJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2008Jacqueline L. Frair Summary 1The ecological footprint of a road may extend for several kilometres with overlapping effects from neighbouring roads causing a nonlinear accumulation of road effects in the landscape. Availability of preferred habitat, spatial dependencies between roads and habitat types, and fidelity to traditionally used areas further confound our ability to predict population-level responses of animals to growing road networks. 2To isolate these effects, we developed an individually based movement model using elk Cervus elaphus L. as a model system. Empirically derived movement rules redistributed elk under different amounts of preferred habitat (clearcuts), road densities, and road development schemes. We tracked potential mortality risk (given time spent near roads) and emigration rates (given declining accessibility of foraging habitat). 3Design of the road network accounted for up to 30,55% difference in mortality risk and emigration rates, with the largest differences occurring at intermediate road densities (1,1·5 km km,2) when road effects began to saturate the landscape. Maintaining roads in association with clearcuts caused a decline in habitat accessibility equivalent to replacing 50,75% of these foraging patches with conifer forest. A nine-fold difference in potential emigration was observed after varying elk tolerance for declining habitat accessibility despite holding local movement biases constant. 4Elk responses to growing road networks were non-linear, exposing thresholds for road density that were reflected in the home range occupancy patterns of a large sample of elk in the region. 5Synthesis and applications. Our approach provides a means of scaling-up complex movement decisions to population-level redistribution, separating the confounding effects of landscape context from road effects, and exposing thresholds in connectivity and mortality risks for wildlife caused by infrastructure growth. Our model indicated that road densities , 0·5 km km,2 yielded the highest probability of elk occurrence where elk were hunted (and sensitive to roads), but disassociating roads from foraging habitats or managing human access to roads may maintain effective elk habitat at substantially higher road densities. [source] Population responses to natural and human-mediated disturbances: assessing the vulnerability of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius)AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2007Rebecca Lewison Abstract Vulnerable wildlife populations can face a suite of anthropogenic activities that may threaten their persistence. However, human-mediated disturbances are likely to be coincident with natural disturbances that also influence a population. This synergism is often neglected in population projection models. Here I evaluate the effects of natural (rainfall fluctuation) and human disturbances (habitat loss and unregulated hunting) using a multi-matrix environmental state population model for the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius). By evaluating each disturbance type (natural and human) alone and then together, I explicitly consider the importance of incorporating realistic environmental variability into population projection models. The model population was most strongly affected by moderate habitat loss, which yielded the highest probability of crossing the risk thresholds over the 60 year time period, although these probabilities were relatively low (,0.31). However, the likelihood of crossing the risk thresholds were two to five times as high when human-mediated and natural disturbances were considered together. When these probabilities were calculated per year of the simulation, the results suggested that even relatively mild human disturbances, when considered in conjunction with realistic natural disturbance, resulted in a high probability (>0.50) of substantial declines within decades. The model highlights the importance of integrating realistic natural disturbances into population models, and suggests that, despite locally abundant populations, protected hippopotamus populations may decline over the next 60 years in response to a combination of environmental fluctuations and human-mediated threats. Résumé Les populations sauvages vulnérables peuvent être confrontées à une suite d'activités humaines qui risquent de menacer leur persistance. Cependant, les perturbations causées par l'homme sont susceptibles de coïncider avec des perturbations naturelles qui influencent aussi une population. Cette synergie est souvent négligée dans les modèles de projection des populations. Ici, j'évalue les effets des perturbations naturelles (fluctuations des chutes de pluie) et humaines (perte d'habitat et chasse non réglementée) en utilisant une chaîne de matrices aléatoires pour l'état environnemental d'une population d'hippopotames (Hippopotamus amphibius). En évaluant chaque type de perturbation (naturelle et humaine) seul et ensemble, je considère explicitement l'importance qu'il y a d'intégrer une variabilité environnementale réaliste dans les modèles de projection des populations. La population modèle était surtout affectée par une perte d'habitat modérée, qui réunissait la plus grande probabilité de dépasser les seuils de risque en une période de 60 ans, même si cette probabilitéétait relativement faible (,0,31). Cependant, la probabilité de franchir les seuils de risque était 2 à 5 fois plus grande lorsque les perturbations d'origine humaine et naturelle étaient considérées ensemble. Lorsque ces probabilités étaient calculées par année, les résultats de la simulation suggéraient que même des perturbations humaines faibles, quand on les considérait en conjonction avec une perturbation naturelle réaliste, résultaient en une forte probabilité (>0,50) de déclin substantiel en quelques décennies. Le modèle souligne l'importance qu'il y a d'intégrer les perturbations naturelles réalistes dans les modèles de population et suggère que, malgré des populations localement abondantes, les populations protégées d'hippopotames peuvent décliner au cours des 60 prochaines années en réaction à une combinaison de fluctuations environnementales et de menaces d'origine humaine. [source] Assessment of hepatitis C virus-RNA clearance under combination therapy for hepatitis C virus genotype 1: performance of the transcription-mediated amplification assayJOURNAL OF VIRAL HEPATITIS, Issue 1 2008D. Ferraro Summary., Monitoring of HCV-RNA in blood during antiviral therapy is performed mostly by commercially available reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction-based (RT-PCR) assays, with a lower detection limit of 30,50 IU/mL of HCV-RNA. Use of different tests in the pivotal trials of combination therapy has generated some discordance, in terms of predictive value of the early virological response (EVR). To evaluate whether the use of a more sensitive test, as a qualitative assay based on transcription mediated amplification (TMA) with a lower detection limit of 5,10 IU/mL of HCV-RNA, may obtain a better prediction of EVR and of the ultimate virological outcome, we retrospectively evaluated serial samples from 108 naïve patients with HCV genotype 1 chronic hepatitis, treated with pegylated ,2b interferon plus ribavirin for 48 weeks and with a 24 weeks stopping rule. Serum samples of patients, obtained during treatment at weeks 4, 12, 24 and 48 and after treatment at week 24, were evaluated by TMA. Comparison of the RT-PCR and TMA assays for the qualitative detection of HCV-RNA showed no significant differences in performance when these tests were used at the end of the treatment period for assessing patients without an on-treatment virological response and those who eventually obtain a sustained virological response. Our results show instead that the use of TMA assay to detect HCV-RNA at 12 and 24 weeks of the combination therapy is more effective than RT-PCR in identifying patients with the highest probability of sustained HCV-RNA clearance. [source] Finding and solving problems in software new product developmentTHE JOURNAL OF PRODUCT INNOVATION MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2002Willow A. Sheremata New product development is notoriously difficult, and software new product development particularly so. Although a great deal of research has investigated new product development, projects developing new software products continue to have problems meeting their goals. In fact, one line of research proposes new product development is difficult because it must solve an ongoing stream of complex problems. I integrate this line of research with two others to develop a conceptual framework of new product development as a process of finding and solving problems. From this framework, I develop four hypotheses that predict the probability projects developing new products will attain their development schedule and product quality goals. More specifically, I hypothesize that projects that generate access to, and integrate, large quantities of creative ideas, in-depth knowledge, and accurate information, should increase their probability of attaining schedule and product quality goals. Projects developing new products should both generate and integrate this "knowledge" to solve the problems that stand between them and their goals. However, how projects find problems also matters. Projects that search to identify problems earlier, rather than later, should also increase their probability of meeting schedule and product quality goals. To test these hypotheses I gathered data on 33 projects that tried to develop new software products from 23 firms, through interviews and questionnaires. Results from regression analyses support three out of four hypotheses. The projects that had high levels of both knowledge generation and integration had a significantly higher probability of attaining their product quality goals, but not their schedule goals. In contrast, projects that merely searched to find problems had a higher probability of attaining both goals. Moreover, projects that not only generated and integrated knowledge to solve problems, but also searched to find them, had the highest probability of attaining their product quality goals. This study illustrates the usefulness of modeling new product development as a bundle of problems to be found and solved. These results suggest that projects that combine practices to implement high levels of both knowledge generation and integration,not just one or the other,increase their chances of meeting product quality goals. This in turn suggests that focus on any single process or practice may be misplaced. Moreover, proactive search for problems may increase projects' chances of meeting both schedule and product quality goals. In fact, search for problems was highly significant in this study, which suggests the way projects identify problems deserves further study. Although these prescriptions are preliminary, this study suggests they can help projects,and their managers,embody their visions in products and deliver those products to market. et. [source] Microsurgical Anatomy of the Laryngeal Nerves as Related to Thyroid SurgeryTHE LARYNGOSCOPE, Issue 2 2002Ashkan Monfared BS Abstract Objectives The objectives were to explore microsurgical anatomy of the superior and recurrent laryngeal nerves and their importance in thyroid surgery, and to examine areas of potential morbidity, means of identification, and arterial supply of the laryngeal nerves. Study Design Descriptive analysis of anatomical features. Methods Twenty-one adult cadavers, some perfused with colored silicon, were dissected for the study project. Results The right recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) branches off the vagus at the level of the subclavian artery and the left one at the level of the aorta. Both ascend parallel to the tracheoesophageal groove and innervate trachea, esophagus, and the inferior pharyngeal constrictors en route. The RLN has the highest probability to pass between the branches of the inferior thyroid artery on the right side and posterior to them on the left side. The RLN always passes posterior to the cricothyroid joint. The RLN is supplied by the branches of the inferior thyroid artery. The superior laryngeal nerve (SLN) branches into internal and external branches deep to the carotid bifurcation. The internal branch passes deep to the superior thyroid artery and descends toward thyrohyoid membrane. The external branch travels deep and parallel to the superior thyroid artery to innervate cricothyroid muscle. The internal branch is supplied by the superior laryngeal artery, and the external branch by the cricothyroid artery. Conclusions The only consistent location of the RLN is when it passes posterior to the cricothyroid joint. Because of extreme variability of the inferior thyroid artery and the RLN, it is suggested that the artery be ligated either proximally or at its tertiary branches on thyroid capsule. The internal branch of the SLN is not potentially at risk during thyroidectomy unless the superior thyroid artery is ligated proximally. The external branch of the SLN accompanies the superior thyroid artery for most of its course and is at potential risk if the trunk of the superior thyroid artery is ligated outside the pretracheal fascia. [source] Precautionary rules for exotic trout aquaculture in fishless shallow lakes of Patagonia: minimizing impacts on the threatened hooded grebe (Podiceps gallardoi)AQUATIC CONSERVATION: MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS, Issue 1 2010Julio L. Lancelotti Abstract 1.Conflicts between habitat use and conservation are inherent to the management of wetlands. A major challenge for their management is to preserve habitat while addressing the demands from multiple users. In southern Patagonia (Argentina), a growing aquaculture activity based on rainbow trout introductions in shallow lakes is generating concerns about the effects on the waterbird fauna, including some endemic species. 2.Generalized linear models (GLM) were used to analyse data on the endemic hooded grebe (Podiceps gallardoi) collected over a diverse set of lakes to: (1) build presence-absence models as a function of environmental variables; (2) assess current and potential overlap with trout aquaculture; (3) explore the power of alternative lake assignment algorithms based on habitat variables to segregate critical habitat and aquaculture activities; and (4) explore the correlation between the probability of grebe presence and their abundance in given lakes. 3.Hooded grebe presence is clearly correlated with macrophyte cover, lake area, and water conductivity. Medium size lakes, with a combination of emerging macrophytes, adjacent to open water areas had the highest probability of both hooded grebe presence and abundance. 4.Different lake allocation scenarios are identified that could grant significant protection to hooded grebes without substantial losses for trout producers. The a priori probability to hold hooded grebe, assigned by the model based on lake characteristics, provides a tool that can be used by managing authorities to derive precautionary management rules to regulate aquaculture and to preserve primary hooded grebe habitat. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] C,Reactive Protein and Atrial Fibrillation in Idiopathic Dilated CardiomyopathyCLINICAL CARDIOLOGY, Issue 9 2009Shimo MD Background Previous studies have found elevated plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) levels in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. Most of these studies included AF patients with various heart diseases, but few studies were designed to investigate CRP in idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (IDCM) patients with AF. Method and Results CRP levels in 242 IDCM patients with AF were compared with CRP levels in 280 control IDCM patients. Among control patients, 70 had atrial premature beats or atrial tachycardia and 210 had normal sinus rhythm. CRP was higher in the AF group than in the control group (median, 4.59 versus 2.81 mg/L; p < 0.001). The prevalence of AF in IDCM patients increased as plasma CRP levels increased, and the patients with the highest plasma CRP levels had the highest probability of suffering from AF. Outcome of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed body mass index, AF, and white blood cell count significantly correlated with the plasma CRP levels. Conclusion Our data demonstrated that the plasma CRP level in IDCM patients with AF was higher than in IDCM patients without AF, and an increase in plasma CRP levels was associated with an increased prevalence of AF in IDCM patients. Also, body mass index, AF, and white blood cell count correlate with plasma CRP levels in IDCM patients. These data suggest there is presence of inflammation in IDCM patients with AF. Copyright © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] | ||||||||||||||||