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Alternative Scenarios (alternative + scenario)
Selected AbstractsAlternative Scenarios for Managing the Environmental Performance of a Service Sector CompanyJOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2006Seppo Junnila Summary This article presents a scenario analysis for a life-cycle model of service sector companies. The model is based on six case companies and it is applied to test the influence of 32 management scenarios. The scenarios simulate feasible options for environmental management measures in companies, and the life-cycle assessment method is used to model their relevance in terms of the total environmental impact of the company. The study found that the bulk of tested scenarios had only a minor influence on the total environmental impact of the company. Some individual management scenarios, though, turned out to have a major influence on the organization's environmental performance. The scenarios with greatest influence were those related to the procurement of electricity, building energy consumption, commuting vehicle mix, space usage efficiency, and refurbishment periods of the building. All of these management scenarios had an influence of more than 10% on the environmental impact of the model organization. [source] Globalisation A Threat to Equitable Social Provision?1IDS BULLETIN, Issue 4 2000Bob Decon Summaries This article argues that the current phase of neoliberal globalisation presents a challenge to the prospects for equitable social development in developing and transition economies. This challenge flows partly from the unregulated nature of the emerging global economy and partly from the intellectual currents dominant in the global discourse concerning social policy and social development. In particular the article argues that a combination of the World Bank' s preference for a safety net and privatising strategy for welfare, the self interest of International NGOs in being providers of associated basic education, health and livelihood services, and the World Trade Organisation's push for a global market in health, education and insurance services, is generating a set of global conditions which undermine the prospects for any alternative scenario of equitable public social provision. This disturbing trend is taking place within the context of an apparent shift in the politics of globalisation from fundamentalist economic liberalism to global social concern. [source] The polar ring galaxy AM1934,563 revisited,MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 4 2007Noah Brosch ABSTRACT We report long-slit spectroscopic observations of the dust-lane polar ring galaxy AM1934,563 obtained with the Southern African Large Telescope (SALT) during its performance verification phase. The observations target the spectral region of the H,, [N ii] and [S ii] emission lines, but also show deep Na i absorption lines, that we interpret as being produced by stars in the galaxy. We derive rotation curves along the major axis of the galaxy that extend out to about 8 kpc from the centre for both the gaseous and the stellar components, using the emission and absorption lines. We derive similar rotation curves along the major axis of the polar ring and point out differences between these and the ones of the main galaxy. We identify a small diffuse object visible only in H, emission and with a low velocity dispersion as a dwarf H ii galaxy and argue that it is probably metal poor. Its velocity indicates that it is a fourth member of the galaxy group in which AM1934,563 belongs. We discuss the observations in the context of the proposal that the object is the result of tidal mater transfer from a major neighbour galaxy and point out some observational discrepancies from this explanation. We argue that an alternative scenario that could better fit the observations may be the slow accretion of cold intergalactic gas, focused by a dense filament of galaxies in which this object is embedded. Given the pattern of rotation we found, with the asymptotic rotation of the gas in the ring being slower than that in the disc while both components have approximately the same extent, we point out that AM1934,563 may be a galaxy in which a dark matter halo is flattened along the galactic disc and the first object in which this predicted behaviour of polar ring galaxies in dark matter haloes is fulfilled. [source] Projecting future fire activity in AmazoniaGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2003MANOEL F. CARDOSO Abstract Fires are major disturbances for ecosystems in Amazonia. They affect vegetation succession, alter nutrients and carbon cycling, and modify the composition of the atmosphere. Fires in this region are strongly related to land-use, land-cover and climate conditions. Because these factors are all expected to change in the future, it is reasonable to expect that fire activity will also change. Models are needed to quantitatively estimate the magnitude of these potential changes. Here we present a new fire model developed by relating satellite information on fires to corresponding statistics on climate, land-use and land-cover. The model is first shown to reproduce the main contemporary large-scale features of fire patterns in Amazonia. To estimate potential changes in fire activity in the future, we then applied the model to two alternative scenarios of development of the region. We find that in both scenarios, substantial changes in the frequency and spatial patterns of fires are expected unless steps are taken to mitigate fire activity. [source] ESTIMATING THE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM BENEFITS OF LARGE CHANGES IN SPATIALLY DELINEATED PUBLIC GOODS*INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 4 2004Holger Sieg The purpose of this article is to report a new approach for measuring the general equilibrium willingness to pay for large changes in spatially delineated public goods such as air quality. We estimate the parameters of a locational equilibrium model and compute equilibria for alternative scenarios characterizing the availability of public goods within a system of communities. Welfare measures take into consideration the adjustments of households in equilibrium to nonmarginal changes in public goods. The framework is used to analyze willingness to pay for reductions in ozone concentrations in Southern California between 1990 and 1995. [source] Conditional Probabilistic Population Projections: An Application to Climate ChangeINTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL REVIEW, Issue 2 2004Brian C. O'Neill Summary Future changes in population size, composition, and spatial distribution are key factors in the analysis of climate change, and their future evolution is highly uncertain. In climate change analyses, population uncertainty has traditionally been accounted for by using alternative scenarios spanning a range of outcomes. This paper illustrates how conditional probabilistic projections offer a means of combining probabilistic approaches with the scenario-based approach typically employed in the development of greenhouse gas emissions projections. The illustration combines a set of emissions scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with existing probabilistic population projections from IIASA. Results demonstrate that conditional probabilistic projections have the potential to account more fully for uncertainty in emissions within conditional storylines about future development patterns, to provide a context for judging the consistency of individual scenarios with a given storyline, and to provide insight into relative likelihoods across storylines, at least from a demographic perspective. They may also serve as a step toward more comprehensive quantification of uncertainty in emissions projections. Résumé Les changements futurs dans la taille, la composition et la distribution spatiale de la population sont des facteurs cels dans l'analyse du changement climatique, et leur évolution future est très incertaine. Dans les analyses du changement climatique, on tient traditionnellement compte de l'incertitude sur la population en utilisant des sénarios alternatifs couvrant un éventail de résultats. Cet article illustre comment des projections à probabilité conditionnelle permettent de combiner les approches probabilistes avec l'approche basée sur des scénarios, typiquement employée dans les travaux de projections d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre. La présentation combine un ensemble de scénarios d'émissions développé par le Panel Intergouvernemental sur le changement climatique (IPCC) avec des projections de population probabilistes existantes de l'IIASA. Les résultats démontrent que les projections à probabilité conditionnelle peuvent expliquer plus complètement l'incertitude sur les émissions dans le cadre de scénarios conditionnels des modèles de développement futurs, qu'elles peuvent permettre de juger de la cohérence de scénarios individuels avec un scénario donné, et de fournir une idée des vraisemblances relatives dans les scénarios, au moins d'un point de vue démographique. Ils peuvent aussi servir d'étape vers une quantification plus précise de l'incertitude dans les projections d'émissions. [source] Knowledge facts, knowledge fiction: the role of ICTs in knowledge management for developmentJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 1 2002Maja Van Der Velden What happens when corporate knowledge management monoculture meets the diverse international development sector? This paper finds that development agencies have too readily adopted approaches from the Northern corporate sector that are inappropriate to development needs. These approaches treat knowledge as a rootless commodity, and information and communications technology as a key knowledge tool. Alternative approaches are required, that focus on the knower and on the context for creating and sharing knowledge. ICT tools need to support this approach, helping people develop appropriate or alternative scenarios and improving the accessibility of information and knowledge for people with different cultural, social, or educational backgrounds. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Let's find the evidence: an analogue study of confirmation bias in criminal investigationsJOURNAL OF INVESTIGATIVE PSYCHOLOGY AND OFFENDER PROFILING, Issue 3 2010Eric Rassin Abstract People involved in criminal proceedings (e.g. police officers, district attorneys, judges, and jury members) may run the risk of developing confirmation bias, or tunnel vision. That is, these parties may readily become convinced that the suspect is guilty, and may then no longer be open to alternative scenarios in which the suspect is actually innocent. This may be reflected in a preference for guilt-confirming investigation endeavours, as opposed to investigations that are aimed at confirming, or even excluding, alternative scenarios. In three studies, participants read a case file, and were subsequently instructed to select additional police investigations. Some of these additional endeavours were guilt-confirming (i.e. incriminating), whereas others were disconfirming (i.e. exonerating). Results suggest that additional investigation search was guided by an initial assessment of the suspect's guilt (Study 1). Furthermore, participants' tendency to select incriminating investigations increased with increased crime severity, and with the strength of the evidence present in the case file. Finally, the selection of incriminating investigations was associated with conviction rates (Study 3). However, in general, participants did not favour incriminating endeavours. That is, in the three studies, the percentages of selected incriminating endeavours did hardly or not exceed 50%. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Blindness to alternative scenarios in evidence evaluationJOURNAL OF INVESTIGATIVE PSYCHOLOGY AND OFFENDER PROFILING, Issue 2 2010Eric Rassin Abstract In order to prevent miscarriages of justice, police, prosecution, and judges must remain open to alternative scenarios in which the suspect is in fact innocent. In recent years, however, several studies have delivered results suggesting that open-mindedness is not always standard in criminal procedures. For example, Ask and Granhag (2005) found that police officers' estimation of the incriminating power of investigation findings was not affected by knowledge of an alternative suspect. The current first study replicated these findings in a mixed sample of police officers, district attorneys, and judges. In Study 2, this blindness to alternative scenarios did not emerge in a sample of university students. However, the estimation of the incriminating power of the evidence and the willingness to convict the primary suspect were predicted with the participants' confirmation proneness. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Premarital Living Arrangements and the Transition to First Marriage in JapanJOURNAL OF MARRIAGE AND FAMILY, Issue 2 2003James M. Raymo This article evaluates the relevance of a popular emphasis on the benefits of extended coresidence with parents as an explanation for the trend toward later marriage in Japan. Estimating hazard models for the transition to first marriage separately by gender, living arrangements, and birth cohort, I find that the trend toward later marriage is indeed more pronounced among young men and women living with parents. Conditional on coresidence, however, there is little evidence that access to parental provision of financial resources and domestic services is negatively associated with marriage. I suggest alternative scenarios in which parental resources may contribute to later marriage by facilitating children's independence rather than by keeping them at home. [source] Land under pressure: soil conservation concerns and opportunities for EthiopiaLAND DEGRADATION AND DEVELOPMENT, Issue 1 2003B. G. J. S. Sonneveld Abstract This paper evaluates the future impact of soil degradation on national food security and land occupation in Ethiopia. It applies a spatial optimization model that maximizes national agricultural revenues under alternative scenarios of soil conservation, land accessibility and technology. The constraints in the model determine whether people remain on their original site, migrate within their ethnically defined areas or are allowed a transregional migration. Key to this model is the combination of a water erosion model with a spatial yield function that gives an estimate of the agricultural yield in its geographical dependence of natural resources and population distribution. A comparison of simulated land productivity values with historical patterns shows that results are interpretable and yield more accurate outcomes than postulating straightforward reductions in yield or land area for each geographic entity. The results of the optimization model show that in absence of soil erosion control, the future agricultural production stagnates and results in distressing food shortages, while rural incomes drop dramatically below the poverty line. Soil conservation and migration support a slow growth, but do not suffice to meet the expected food demand. In a transregional migration scenario, the highly degraded areas are exchanged for less affected sites, whereas cultivation on already substantially degraded soils largely continues when resettlement is confined to the original ethnic,administrative entity. A shift to modern technology offers better prospects and moderates the migration, but soil conservation remains indispensable, especially in the long term. Finally, an accelerated growth of non-agricultural sectors further alleviates poverty in the countryside, contributing to higher income levels of the total population and, simultaneously, relieving the pressure on the land through rural,urban migration. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Transportation demand for petroleum products in Indonesia: a time series analysisOPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 2 2009Suleiman Sa'ad This paper used annual time series data for the period 1973 to 2007 in two econometric techniques [the structural time series model (STSM) and unrestricted error correction model (UECM)] developed to estimate petroleum products (gasoline and diesel) and demand functions for the transportation sector of Indonesia and make a forecast of per capita consumption of the total products until the year 2030 under three scenarios. The results from both models revealed that the demand for petroleum products are price inelastic, with an estimated long-run price elasticity of ,0.19 in the STSM and ,0.16 in the UECM. However, total petroleum is income elastic in the long run with a long-run income elasticity of 0.97 under the STSM and 0.88 in the UECM. The estimated demand functions are used to construct a projection of future transportation demand for petroleum products until 2030 under three alternative scenarios: business as usual, low case scenario and high case scenario. The results of this exercise suggests that by 2030, the demand for total petroleum products per capita for Indonesia will increase to about 0.498 toe in the STSM and 0.476 toe in the UECM under the baseline scenario, 0.197 toe in the STSM and 0.186 toe in the UECM under low case scenario and finally, 0.976 toe in the STSM and 0.886 toe under high case scenario. [source] Sustaining economic expansion in Pakistan in an era of energy shortfalls: growth options to 20351OPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 2 2007Robert Looney Pakistan's recent economic acceleration together with rapid rates of population growth is having a significant impact on the country's energy supply/demand balances. Energy supplies in turn affect the pace and pattern of the country's economic expansion. Drawing on the empirically-based complex links between energy and the economy, several alternative scenarios of growth and energy needs are developed in an attempt to answer several key questions. In particular, what are some of the key interrelationships between sources of energy demand and supply? What are the economic growth consequences of alternative energy availabilities and, in turn, how do these growth patterns affect the subsequent energy supply and demand patterns? What energy strategies are suggested by the interconnection between the country growth requirements and energy needs? Are these significantly modified under rising or falling energy prices? Based on this analysis, several guidelines are drawn for the country's future energy policy. [source] Central America's Foreign Debt Burden and the HIPC InitiativeBULLETIN OF LATIN AMERICAN RESEARCH, Issue 1 2001Gerardo Esquivel This paper reviews the foreign debt burden in Central America with special emphasis on Honduras and Nicaragua. These countries have a large debt overhang and they have lagged behind the rest of the region in terms of economic growth. Our work suggests that Honduras and Nicaragua require alleviation of their foreign debt as a prerequisite to achieve sustained economic growth. The paper also reviews the initiative aimed at reducing the debt burden of the highly indebted poor countries (the HIPC Initiative) and evaluates alternative scenarios of debt reduction for both Honduras and Nicaragua. It ends with a critical assessment of the implications of the fiscal and openness criteria established in the HIPC Initiative. [source] | ||||||||||||||||