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Government Bonds (government + bond)
Terms modified by Government Bonds Selected AbstractsInfluence of ADB Bond Issues and US Bonds on Asian Government Bonds*ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 4 2007Masahiro InoguchiArticle first published online: 2 JAN 200 F33; F35; F36; G12; G15 This article examines whether there is a correlation between the government bond markets of Asian countries and those of the USA, and whether the efforts of international organizations to improve bond markets have had any effect in East Asia. Because the sizes of the government bond markets are larger than those of the corporate bond markets in East Asia, the present paper uses the daily data of government bonds to examine two questions: whether government bond yields in Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand correlate with US government bond yields, and whether bonds in these Asian countries are influenced by ADB bond issues. The present study analyzes these issues by demonstrating the fluctuations in bond yields and carrying out an estimation using the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. The results substantiate that there is indeed a correlation between Asian and US bond markets, and that ADB bond issuance in local markets can contribute to the development of Asian bond markets. [source] PUBLIC DEBT AS PRIVATE WEALTH: SOME EQUILIBRIUM CONSIDERATIONSMETROECONOMICA, Issue 4 2006Article first published online: 13 NOV 200, Ekkehart Schlicht ABSTRACT Government bonds are interest-bearing assets. Increasing public debt increases wealth, income and consumption demand. The smaller government expenditure is, the larger consumption demand must be in equilibrium, and the larger must be public debt. Conversely, lower public debt implies higher government spending and taxation. Public debt plays, thus, an important role in establishing equilibrium. It distributes output between consumers and government. In case of insufficient demand, a larger public debt entails higher private consumption and less public spending. If upper bounds on public debt are introduced (as in the Maastricht treaty), such constraints place lower bounds on taxation and public spending and may rule out macroeconomic equilibrium. As an aside, a minor flaw in Domar's (American Economic Review, 34 (4), pp. 798,827) classical analysis is corrected. [source] A Term Structure Decomposition of the Australian Yield Curve,THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 271 2009RICHARD FINLAY We use data on coupon-bearing Australian Government bonds and Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates to estimate risk-free zero-coupon yield and forward curves for Australia from 1992 to 2007. These curves and analysts' forecasts of future interest rates are then used to fit an affine term structure model to Australian interest rates, with the aim of decomposing forward rates into expected future overnight cash rates plus term premia. The expected future short rates derived from the model are on average unbiased, fluctuating around the average of actual observed short rates. Since the adoption of inflation targeting and the entrenchment of low and stable inflation expectations, term premia appear to have declined in levels and displayed smaller fluctuations in response to economic shocks. This suggests that the market has become less uncertain about the path of future interest rates. Towards the end of the sample period, term premia have been negative, suggesting that investors may have been willing to pay a premium for Commonwealth Government securities. [source] Is Japan Facing a Public Debt Crisis?ASIAN POLITICS AND POLICY, Issue 4 2010Debt Financing, the Development of the JGB Market This article explores the idiosyncratic institutional features of public debt financing in Japan that have enabled the government to finance increasing public debt at low costs. It examines the three key aspects that contributed to the Japanese government bond (JGB) market development: (1) the surplus financial balance of the household sector; (2) the strong tradition of public financing; and (3) home bias, that is, little dependence on external financing. It argues that Japan's financial institutions' capacity to absorb JGBs is reaching the limit and that the Japanese government needs to take bolder measures to reverse the flow of financial intermediation, from the public to the private sector. It also suggests that restoring people's trust in the government's competence and leadership is an essential element for successful fiscal consolidation. [source] Is Reserve-ratio Arithmetic More Pleasant?ECONOMICA, Issue 279 2003Joydeep Bhattacharya Does it matter in a revenue-neutral setting if the government changes the inflation tax base or the inflation tax rate? We answer this question within the context of an overlapping-generations model in which government bonds, capital and cash reserves coexist. We consider experiments that parallel those studied in Sargent and Wallace's ,unpleasant monetarist arithmetic'; the government uses seigniorage to service its debt, choosing between changing either the money growth rate (the inflation tax rate) or the reserve-requirement ratio (the inflation tax base). In the former case we obtain standard unpleasant arithmetic; in the long run a permanent open market sale results in higher money growth, and higher long-run inflation. Somewhat surprisingly, it turns out that, for a given money growth rate, lower reserve requirements fund the government's interest expense. Associated with the lower reserve requirements is lower long-run inflation and higher welfare, compared with the money-growth case. The broad message is that reserve-ratio arithmetic can be pleasant even when money-growth arithmetic is not. [source] Do Governments Use Financial Derivatives Appropriately?INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2001Evidence from Sovereign Borrowers in Developed Economies This article provides original evidence on the use of derivatives by sovereign borrowers. Swaps are used both to increase the liquidity of long-term government bonds and for speculation. However, some sovereign borrowers have also used derivatives to ,window dress' their public accounts for the purpose of disguising budget deficits. One actual window-dressing transaction by a sovereign borrower that used it to facilitate entry into the EMU is described. It is shown that the size of the artificial deficit reduction it achieved through this transaction is large. I argue that window-dressing through derivatives might prove particularly damaging for the political stability of the EMU, the effectiveness of stabilization programmes in less developed countries, and the credibility of supranational institutions charged with monitoring the soundness of client-country economic policies. Window dressing also dangerously distorts the relationship between governments and private financial institutions. I suggest proper accounting procedures that should be used to eliminate the possibility of such operations. [source] Tax Clientele Effects in the Term Structure of UK Interest RatesJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 3-4 2001Eric J. Levin This paper tests for tax clientele effects in the term structure of UK interest rates. Five empirical models of the term structure of interest rates, incorporating tax effects, are estimated with daily data covering the period 31 March, 1995 to 3 August, 1995. In May 1995, the British government announced its intention to eliminate the tax exemption on capital gains from government bonds, but subsequently in July 1995 backtracked on some of its initial proposals. This period therefore forms the basis of a crude natural experiment in the sense that it provides an opportunity to examine tax clientele effects ,before' and ,after' an event which should have levelled greatly the taxing of government bonds. The empirical analysis suggests large tax clientele effects. However, there is little evidence of tax-specific term structures of interest rates. [source] The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity ReturnsJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 3-4 2000Richard D.F. Harris A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia, the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity return. Recently, however, the ratio between the long government bond yield and the equity dividend yield , the gilt-equity yield ratio , has emerged as a variable that has considerable explanatory power for UK equity returns. This paper compares the predictive ability of the gilt-equity yield ratio with these other variables for UK and US equity returns, providing evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. For UK monthly returns, it is shown that while the dividend yield has substantial in-sample explanatory power, this is not matched by out-of sample forecast accuracy. The gilt-equity yield ratio, in contrast, performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Although the predictability of US monthly equity returns is much lower than for the UK, a similar result emerges, with the gilt-equity yield ratio dominating the other variables in terms of both in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecast performance. The gilt-equity yield ratio is also shown to have substantial predictive ability for long horizon returns. [source] Macroeconomic Control in the Transforming Chinese Economy: An Analysis of the Long-Run EffectPACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2001Michael K. Y. Fung This paper analyzes the issue of macroeconomic control in the Chinese economy where there is a dual structure (consisting of a state sector and a non-state sector) and the financial sector is still under tight control by the government. Given the dual structure and financial repression, when inflation is a severe problem, the authors investigate whether it is possible for the government to bring inflation under control without hampering long-term economic growth performance. The investigation is conducted within the context of an endogenous growth model that incorporates the two major institutional features of the transforming Chinese economy. The paper evaluates the long-run effects of changes in government monetary and fiscal policies on the major macroeconomic aggregates. The analysis suggests that increasing in the interest rate on government bonds will reduce inflation without affecting the growth rate of output; while increasing the nominal interest rate on bank deposits will exert a stagflationary effect on the economy: raising the inflation rate but reducing the growth rate of output. [source] WINDOW DRESSING IN BOND MUTUAL FUNDSTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH, Issue 3 2006Matthew R. Morey Abstract We examine portfolio credit quality holding and daily return patterns in a large sample of bond mutual funds and document evidence of window dressing. Using portfolio credit quality holdings data, we find that bond funds on average hold significantly more government bonds during disclosure than nondisclosure, presumably to present a safer portfolio to shareholders. Multiple-index market models estimated with daily returns data corroborate these findings. We detect differences in factor loadings on days surrounding disclosure dates that indicate systematic tilting of the portfolio toward higher quality instruments. [source] Determinants of Japanese Yen interest rate swap spreads: Evidence from a smooth transition vector autoregressive modelTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 1 2008Ying Huang This study investigates the determinants of variations in the yield spreads between Japanese yen interest rate swaps and Japan government bonds for a period from 1997 to 2005. A smooth transition vector autoregressive (STVAR) model and generalized impulse response functions are used to analyze the impact of various economic shocks on swap spreads. The volatility based on a GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) model of the government bond rate is identified as the transition variable that controls the smooth transition from a high volatility regime to a low volatility regime. The break point of the regime shift occurs around the end of the Japanese banking crisis. The impact of economic shocks on swap spreads varies across the maturity of swap spreads as well as regimes. Overall, swap spreads are more responsive to the economic shocks in the high volatility regime. Moreover, a volatility shock has profound effects on shorter maturity spreads, whereas the term structure shock plays an important role in impacting longer maturity spreads. Results of this study also show noticeable differences between the nonlinear and linear impulse response functions. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:82,107, 2008 [source] The Chinese interbank repo market: An analysis of term premiumsTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 2 2006Longzhen Fan Because of the lack of short-term government bonds, the interbank repo market in China has been providing the best information about market-driven short-term interest rates since its inception. This article examines the behavior of the repo rates of various terms and their term premiums. The work in this article supplements the study by F. Longstaff (2000), which reports supportive evidence for the pure expectations hypothesis over the short range of the term structure with the use of repo data from the United States. It is found that the pure expectations hypothesis is statistically rejected, although the term premiums are economically small. It is shown that the short-term repo rate, repo rate volatility, repo market liquidity, and repo rate spreads are all important in determining the term premiums. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:153,167, 2006 [source] Influence of ADB Bond Issues and US Bonds on Asian Government Bonds*ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 4 2007Masahiro InoguchiArticle first published online: 2 JAN 200 F33; F35; F36; G12; G15 This article examines whether there is a correlation between the government bond markets of Asian countries and those of the USA, and whether the efforts of international organizations to improve bond markets have had any effect in East Asia. Because the sizes of the government bond markets are larger than those of the corporate bond markets in East Asia, the present paper uses the daily data of government bonds to examine two questions: whether government bond yields in Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand correlate with US government bond yields, and whether bonds in these Asian countries are influenced by ADB bond issues. The present study analyzes these issues by demonstrating the fluctuations in bond yields and carrying out an estimation using the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. The results substantiate that there is indeed a correlation between Asian and US bond markets, and that ADB bond issuance in local markets can contribute to the development of Asian bond markets. [source] Modelling the Credit Spreads and Long,Term Relationships of Thai Yankee Bond IssuesASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 4 2002Jonathan Batten The present study investigates the yield spread between Thai government bonds issued in the US domestic market (,Yankee' bonds) and US Treasury bonds, to determine the long,term equilibrium dynamics and the factors that affect changes in credit spreads. The sample period investigated was from May 5, 1999 to March 26, 2002. The results suggest that the long,term equilibrium relationship holds only between Thai Yankee bonds and long,term US bonds, rather than shorter or equivalent maturity bonds. Also, changes in the credit spreads of Thai Yankee bonds are generally negatively related to changes in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index (see http://www.set.or.th/th/index.html). Changes in US Treasury bonds also tend to negatively affect spreads on short Thai Yankee bonds and positively affect spreads on long Thai Yankee bonds, although other macroeconomic factors , including exchange rate and capital flow variables , were generally not important. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||